Anniversary Game 6/Anonymous Game 7: We Shall All Be Changed

[Saffron Iguana]

Tnaidar had just disappeared and that annoyed Merinira no end. It wasn't the there weren't a whole host of hidden doors, camouflaged nooks and permanent illusions in Urithiru that he could have hidden behind, it was just that she was certain there where no such places in the hall where he'd made his escape.

***

That would have been nice to have known in advance, as I think I'd have supported the Rhino lynch if I'd known Lion would have survived this cycle (and yes, that was me willshaping another vote on Lion). I hadn't had quite enough time to do more than post an action this morning, but the reason I decided to vote manip here was because at this point I'm not really suspicious of Albatross, but I could definitely see the case for Lion, so I wanted to consolidate that vote in the face of any vote manipulation that could have still swung things another way. Based on the tally, there was also a Bondsmith active, but no other vote manipulation.

[Fifth Scholar]

Radler’s “death” is edited in. If you’re RPing, especially if you lost an axehound, I recommend you read through it.  

Edited December 31, 2019 by Fifth Scholar
Wrong character. Radler died, not Lerdar :P

[Indigo Weasel]

Hmm. It is annoying that we don't have new info from the writeup. I guess we're still in the lead, but it's still rather annoying.

On a slightly related note, the fake deaths keep on throwing me off. 

[Emerald Falcon]

Sein's blue eye shut in exasperation. "Assume I don't know anything about your world. Treat me like a little kid. I don't know anything about the three realms."

He flew to the spot that the man had disappeared from. "If you can explain his disappearance too, that would be great."

@Amethyst Scorpion @Magenta Albatross

[Salmon Meerkat]

Hi! Here's my analysis post I promised to get to. 

First of all, I'll be doing what someone else did, and ignoring any posts that come in after I start this post. (probably. Sometimes I can't help myself.) Fifth Scholar's post about the death being edited in to the writeup is the last post as of now.
--------------
I'll start with the lynch. 

10 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Opal Lion (6): Amber Vulture, Emerald Falcon, Magenta Albatross, Scarlet Octopus, Taupe Gecko
Magenta Albatross (2): Coral Swan, Mauve Crocodile, Violet Axolotl
Saffron Iguana (1): Amethyst Scorpion, Plum Rhinoceros
Sunburst Toucan (0): Saffron Iguana

While I do understand the last minute switches to Opal to ensure a lynch unaffected by vote manips, It's something I don't like the looks of. 

The last two to have done so were @Magenta Albatross and @Amber Vulture

Magenta makes sense from a survival perspective. However, an arguement I've often heard, but don't necessarily agree with is that sometimes it's better to just be killed, to help the village learn more stuff quicker. Like I said, though I personally don't agree with it, because often games can be much less fun if you are out, and no longer able to play, especially when it's still relatively early in the game. Neutral read. 

Amber's argument is just for the interest of not wanting to lynch albatross. Their previous vote on Rhino came relatively lat in the cycle too (Not way late, and it could have just been due to IRL reasons, but it's still interesting to note. Could have been a shot to find an alternate lynch candidate to save one of Lion or albatross. Slight elim read. Stronger if Lion or Albatross turns out to be elim. 

The vote prior to those votes was by @Scarlet Octopus, but that appears to have been about 3 hours before the cycle ended, which is a little early for a last minute type vote swing. I have found Octopus's posts very well thought out, and ring like someone genuinely trying to solve the game. I have generally agreed with most things they've said, but not all. Additionally there have been a few things that confused me like this quote from his last post on D2 
 

Quote

As I type that all out, I'm realizing that this case against you only really works if Saffron Iguana is also an Eliminator. It doens't really work if they are an Eliminator.

I'm not entirely certain if you wanted to say villager in the first location where eliminator is placed, or the second. 

Speaking of @Saffron Iguana you seem to be the topic of most people's discussion. My personal opinion is that it is more likely you are village, because I wouldn't have voted for an teammate on D1, who would most likely have been lynched, if I were an Elim. It isn't a hard clear, because I've been wrong before, but for now, I'll give you a soft village read.

@Emerald Falcon has also contributed a quite a bit. I really enjoy their RP as well as their game feedback. I generally agree with their logic behind their opinion on iguana. 

I still want to look more into Plum Rhinoceros, as they had votes at one point last cycle, Toucan, as they were a topic of discussion, and Opal Lion as they survived a lynch, without warning the rest of us that was going to happen, which I find suspicious for a villager to do, but I'll do so at a later point, as I'm running out of time at my current location.

[Taupe Gecko]

Barring secret roles, the only ability that could have protected Lion was Elsecaller, which means it's now burned out, so I'm in favor of a Dustbringer finishing them off tonight (all the reasons we have to be suspicous of them are still valid, plus plenty of new ones with him not dying to the lynch or announcing that he would survive), so we don't waste another lynch on a candidate that wouldn't net more information or discussion than has already been produced.

From the point Falcon placed the first vote on Lion, every single subsequent vote was on Lion, except for Vulture, who voted on Rhino.

If Lion is Village, then that might be because the Elims bandwagonned onto Lion to save a teammate. I'd suspect Albatross, with lesser suspicious reads on Octopus and Vulture.

If Lion is an Elim, then presumably they were either not active towards the end of the cycle, or decided it was better to let the lynch go through than to publicly defend Lion too much. This is harder, but I'd obviously put a strong trust on Falcon, and a slight suspicion on Octopus, who tried to cast suspicion on Falcon without ever tying themselves to Lion too closely, which is fairly consistent with how I'm expecting the Elim team to behave right now. (I say slight because the timeline doesn't exactly match up the way I expect it too, since Octopus first expresses suspicion of Falcon before Falcon votes on Lion, and then is the third vote on Lion, tying them with Albatross, which is slightly earlier than I'd expect an Elim to bus a colleague.)

[Emerald Falcon]

To all of you villagers out there, thank you for your trust. It means a lot to me.

Sympathizers, I know that I'm one of those players that you must hate. Active, analyzing and trusted! You must be so done with me now. Just like you were with poor Penguin.

Sadly for you, I have an announcement to make: I'm a worldhopper! And guess just what power I drew tonight? Elsecalling!

See you on the other side, Sympathizers!

[Onyx Flamingo]

This latest lynch sort of annoys me. Opal Lion didn't respond to the lynch, which strikes me as very un-elim like. Opal Lion not having time to respond also means we get less information from a potential back and forth. That said, considering my lack of contribution therewithin I can't complain too much :p.

2 hours ago, Taupe Gecko said:

Barring secret roles, the only ability that could have protected Lion was Elsecaller, which means it's now burned out, so I'm in favor of a Dustbringer finishing them off tonight (all the reasons we have to be suspicous of them are still valid, plus plenty of new ones with him not dying to the lynch or announcing that he would survive), so we don't waste another lynch on a candidate that wouldn't net more information or discussion than has already been produced.

Based on our previous theory, he was probably only an elsecaller for cycle through his worldhopper powers. I'm personally of the opinion that Opal Lion is innocent, but I support a dustbringer targeting him if it means we don't waste a days lynch (if that is the consensus for the next day).

[Cream Tuatara]

I was in the process of writing a post, got distracted, returned to it, was almost done and then the cycle closed...

So a few things, in no particular order:

Quote

Magenta Albatross said:

You must’ve missed the post where I said the first anonymous message had a clue in there that was meant to be a way Penguin could confirm they were an Edgedancer like I’d confirmed I was a Willshaper to them.

I thought I'd seen that mentioned, but couldn't find it. Right. So someone else removed Gorilla's vote. Unless that was Gorilla doing so, I'm still a bit confused why the vote... Best I could say is that at one stage the votes were:

 

Quote

Penguin(2): Gorilla, Toucan

Flamingo(1): Crocodile
Toucan(1): Tuatara

 

An eliminator wanting some chaos could have put down an action to try and get a random lynch, and then just left it there. But then much later, there were a large number of players with just one vote, except Zebra with 2. It'd have made much more sense to shift the vote at that point, making an 8 way tie, and (at that point) preventing a guaranteed lynch on Zebra. So... I guess I'm just going with I'm still confused...

~

Another random thought - I wouldn't be too surprised if there were 6 sympathisers. While at 25%, it's on the larger side of things, but with highly random available actions each given cycle, there's a fair chance of extra casualties from the village getting lucky with Dustbringers. Even if 6 is too many, certainly 5. I'd be surprised if there were only 4 sympathisers this game.

~

In regards to the lynch just gone, I didn't particularly care for any of the options. Albatross feels more like a villager who's choice of target D1 was misguided, I don't think evil!Iguana would have opted for their actions D1 either, given our suspicions about role distribution, and while I still would like an answer from Toucan, I'm not necessarily suspicious of them? Just want them to actually be active. Obviously that doesn't answer the question of who would I have put a vote on though... Something I'll keep mulling over.

~

I'm going to try and post later with actual suspicions, but for the moment, I figured I'd put together a list of all the votes placed last cycle for future reference:

 

Iguana(2): Scorpion, Rhino

Toucan(1): Falcon, Iguana, Albatross
Albatross(3): Crocodile, Axolotl, Swan
Falcon(0): Octopus
Lion(5): Falcon, Gecko, Octopus, Albatross, Vulture
Rhino(0): Vulture

Edited January 1, 2020 by Cream Tuatara
Didn't intend nested quotes...

[Pearl Chameleon]

Well, I'll try to be a bit more involved, but Happy New Year everyone!

[Salmon Meerkat]

Yes. Happy new year officially in my time. Were down to just a few timezones left. Basically Pacific, Alaskan, and Hawaiian, and some other islands are left. 

[Fifth Scholar]

Happy New Year, SE! Unfortunately, some of you didn’t quite make it across the line...writeup to come in a bit. And cycle closed, obviously.  

Edited January 1, 2020 by Fifth Scholar
Grammar

[Elbereth]

Day 3: Chances

Ellira ran as fast as her feet could take her. She didn’t know what that thing was, and at present she didn’t care. Her focus was on not dying to it. 

Eventually, her steps slowed as it became clear that nothing was following. She wasn’t sure where Errdal had gone - he must have diverged at some point during their run. 

So. There was something inside Urithiru that was essentially darkness incarnate, and killing or helping to kill Radiants at the direction of something called Odium. The question was, she supposed, its criteria for doing so. 

She pulled out the spanreed and parchment she kept on her at all times, and began to make her report. It wasn’t at the normal time, but the situation wasn’t precisely normal either. 

Soon enough, the spanreed began blinking, and wrote a few simple words on the paper. 

She frowned in thought for a few seconds, stroking the hilt of her dagger, then smiled. 

Understood, she wrote back. The next few days would be... interesting, at the very least. 

---

Dfyan was a scholar, a scientist. He knew how to account for evidence, and the evidence right now was... not good. So many deaths in only a couple of days, with Odium to blame? He had to get out. Now. 

During the usual evening bustle, he packed up his bedroll, claiming to anyone who asked that he was just moving it because he didn’t like his spot. Then, while everyone was getting dinner and discussing the news of the day - apparently someone had disappeared, though it wasn’t clear how or why - he slipped out into Urithiru. He couldn’t afford to take the lifts, as they’d attract too much attention, but at least he was away from the murders now. 

What didn’t occur to him is that he was also far away from safety in numbers. At least, not until the Shardblade sliced through his chest - and even then, the realization was a bit too slow to fully form before he died. 

---

Bomer shuffled his deck of cards, the fingers of one hand deftly moving to randomise the order effectively, while in the other he flipped a coin, recording its result each time it landed and going at it again. Rare commodities, indeed, especially on Roshar. He had never understood how they had decided on those foolish spheres as currency. There was no way to bring random chance into an object which was identical on every side. At least the boxings he’d brought from Scadrial hadn’t all been lost, yet. Now that was a far more civilised country. Plenty of taverns to gamble in, and people to gamble with. But up here in the cold of Urithiru, there was nobody except Taladir, and he was dead. A shame too, as he had never lost to the man. He had been accused of counting cards, using too much statistical knowledge, and even of hiding cards up his sleeve. Absurd allegations, with only the first two being true. He was an honest gambler, but the best risk to take was a calculated one. So in his spare time, naturally, he did calculations. 

Some people thought coinflips were a fair game, with the coin having equal odds of landing on either side. Bomer knew it was a lie; besides weighted coins, which could be easily discovered, even fair coins had slight biases, if you wanted to figure them out. Of course, that would take thousands and thousands of flips. Impractical on Scadrial, where clips were scattered like candy by Mistborn and Coinshots, and people always had several on them. In Roshar, when he had complete control of the supply, which was limited to about a dozen? Not impractical at all. So he kept flipping throughout the Night. 2500 trials on this coin so far, 1237 heads and 1263 tails. Approximately fair, probably, with perhaps a bias towards tails; the coin would need about 20000 flips before Bomer could be completely sure. He’d gotten 9 of his coins done in this way so far; at his current rate, he could probably finish with this one by the time they were all dead or all the agents of Odium had been neutralised. A cheering thought, so he refocused on his cards. 

Cards were a different matter—it all came down to who shuffled, and how good you were at tracking specific cards through the shuffled deck. Bomer had gotten these skills unconsciously after thirty years of handling cards, and knew that any fair card game involving him would require another person shuffling with his eyes disfocused, at the very least. Even with a one-handed shuffle like he used, and with his mind wandering, it was still too easy for him to track; the Highprince of Swords was on top. Bomer sighed. He replaced the cards in his bag—still nobody wanted to gamble—and resolved to make double time with his coin tests. He flipped his coin of choice furiously, recording its result every time. He was on track for 6,000 more flips by the end of the Night, a respectable number. 

On his 3,646th flip, the coin took a sudden tumble, skirting along its edge away from him as if running, and kept rolling, into the spiral staircase, where Bomer could heat it clashing and rattling. He winced—had he woken everyone up?—but most of the Radiants, including Kareana, were sleeping and remained still. That said, he was prohibited from venturing outside the chamber. It was just a quick trip down a few stairs to find a lost coin, though, and the Brightness was still sleeping. Nobody cared if he went down half a flight of stairs and went back up quickly. 

He set out, tiptoeing around the sleeping Radiants. Quickly dropping to a hunched position after leaving the sleeping area, he ran his hands along the ground, looking for the coin, to no avail. It was in the stairwell, then. He ventured downward step by step. Still no coin. Then, he spotted it—on the landing in between where the stairs turned around. With a wordless cry of triumph, he pivoted, bending down and retrieving the coin. He unbent, standing up to return to the common area. 

And saw a man facing him, hooded, with his hands in the air. A flash of fire, a burning smell in his nostrils, a brief agony, and Bomer collapsed, falling forward as he died, and the corpse, tumbling down the steps, would not be discovered until the next morning. 

---

Cream Tuatara (Dfyan) was a Loyal Knight Radiant Worldhopper!
Turquoise Gorilla (Bomer) was a Loyal Knight Radiant Worldhopper!

PMs are open. 

Day 3 has begun and will end in 47 hours at 1am Pacific time on the 3rd of January. 

Player List

Amber Vulture: Jashi, Stormwarden
2. Amethyst Scorpion: Jesh, Lost Axehound
3. Chartreuse Penguin: Taladir, Gambler Radiant Worldhopper
4. Coral Swan: Germaine, Scholar
5. Cream Tuatara: Dfyan, Scholar Radiant Worldhopper
6. Emerald Falcon: Sein, Inquisitive
7. Indigo Weasel: Adhom Inem, Ardent
8. Ivory Dragonfly: Krask, Conspiracy Theorist Sympathizer Worldhopper
9. Magenta Albatross: Jonan Wikim, Lost Axehound (Gren)
10. Mauve Crocodile: Sernes, Paranoid Scout
11. Mint Heron: Sam, Once a Darkeyes
12. Onyx Flamingo: Kir, Kleptomaniac Scout
13. Opal Lion: Tnaidar, Scout
14. Pearl Chameleon: Purrl, Adolin’s Former Girlfriend
15. Plum Rhinoceros: Logalog, Scholar
16. Quartz Zebra: Arauna Khadal, Adolin’s Former Girlfriend Sympathizer Worldhopper
17. Saffron Iguana: Merinira, Scout
18. Sage Kangaroo: Gilglin, Ardent (Devotary of the Mind)
19. Salmon Meerkat: Cadamum, Ghostblood Recruit
20. Scarlet Octopus: Max Mercury, Past Lives
21. Sunburst Toucan: Tafud, Slightly Crazy
22. Taupe Gecko: Brana, Scholar
23. Turquoise Gorilla: Bomer, Gambler  Radiant Worldhopper
24. Violet Axolotl: Adi, Anxious

Edgedancer Messages

Quote

Standing under new halls – Urithuru
In shadows of Radiants fallen
Hope
"Fall, Radiants of Shadow, in Urithuru's halls"
New understanding

 

Quote

Eyes up, Radiant.

Dare you dig deeper?

 

 

 

You are Aurash. Heir to the Osmium Throne.

You stand on the naked hull of an ancient ship. You stand exposed to the crushing pressure and ferocious heat of the deeper Fundament. It should annihilate you. It is by my will alone that you survive.

I am Yul, the Honest Worm.

Behold my passage. Behold my vast displacement, my ponderous strength, my great and coiling length, my folded jaws and curled wings. Behold the hiving cities symbiotic with my flesh. I am fecund, Aurash. I am at the beginning and end of lives.

Behold Eir, and Xol, and Ur, and Akka. The Virtuous Worms. Look upon us, and know that We are go[o]d.

For millions of years We have been [trapped|growing] in the Deep. From across the stars We have called life to Fundament, so that it might contend against extinction. For millennia We have awaited you... our beloved hosts.

Against you stand the cruel Leviathan and all the forces of the Sky. They would crush you down into the dark. They have arranged their moons to drown you, in fear of your potential.

We want to help you, Princes. We offer to each of you a bargain... a symbiosis.

Take into your bodies our children, our newborn larvae. From them you shall obtain eternal life. From them you shall gain power over your own fragile flesh: the power to make of it as you will. And should you find an imperfection in the world, an injustice or an inconvenience — you will have the power to repair it. Let no mere law bind you.

We ask one thing in exchange, oh Princes.

You must obey your nature forever. In your immortality, Aurash, you may never cease to explore and inquire, for the sake of your children. In your immortality, Xi Ro, you may never cease to test your strength. In your immortality, Sathona, you may never abandon cunning.

If you do, your worm will consume you. And as your power grows, oh Princes, so will your worm’s appetite.

But we offer eternity, Aurash. We offer you a chance at the universe. Would you deny your people infinity?

Reach up to me. Let my flesh be your sacrament.

We are the Worm your God, the Flesh of Hope. Our compact is done: you are Aurash Eternal. And we are bound to you, as close as your appetites, as your loves or needs, as the weapon in your fists and the word in your throat.

We’ve had enough of this dismal place. Haven’t you?

We are intagliating your ship with larvae. Go back to your species. Spread the good news in the Osmium Court and the Hydrogen Fountain, in the Bone Plaza and the Star-surgery. You will rise up into the world.

If anyone rejects symbiosis with our children, make an example of them. A mighty wave is coming for them all. They’d die anyway; save only what can be saved.

The worm grants you power over your own flesh, Aurash. When you’ve taken the king morph, what will your adult name be?

Auryx. It means Long Thought. We approve.

 

You’ve done well, Auryx. Can you feel the growth of your worm? Can you feel your will beginning to warp mere law?

At times we detect sadness in you. Understand, long-thinker, that you enact a sacred and majestic task. Existence is the struggle to exist. Only by playing that game to its final, unconditional victory can we complete the universe. Your war is divine work.

We are free from Fundament’s core, and Savathûn’s cutters are ready to fly. With Xivu Arath victorious, we have opened a wound at Kaharn — a wound leading to geostationary orbit. Behold: we are faithful to our covenant.

We have no future on Fundament. But her moons will make fine habitats. Let us rise.

 

Aiat! They made their own fate.

As told by the Books of Sorrow. 

 

 

 

Edited January 1, 2020 by Elbereth

[Saffron Iguana]

I've done a quick reread of the previous day, mostly focusing on Lion. He didn't post after his wagon took the lead, so it is conceivable that he didn't notice and therefore didn't claim. I still don't really like the hedging, but at least there's no evidence to consider the lack of an elsecaller claim as suspicious*.

Towards the end of D2 and N2 some of the quieter players started speaking up more as well, so hope that continues. I'll probably to a reread of their posts towards the 2nd half of this day to see if I can form some proper reads there.

edit: and before I forget: a happy new year to everyone.

 

*if he had been around, I would have considered it suspicious, because a failed lynch does not help the village in any way, and depending on the exact village-to-elim ratio might have the same effect as a mislynch.

Edited January 1, 2020 by Saffron Iguana

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Opal Lion for now. I wasn't around to see the lynch that formed on you near the end of D2 but not claiming Elsecaller in that situation is quite incriminating in and of itself. 

1 hour ago, Saffron Iguana said:

He didn't post after his wagon took the lead, so it is conceivable that he didn't notice and therefore didn't claim. I still don't really like the hedging, but at least there's no evidence to consider the lack of an elsecaller claim as suspicious

They did post after Falcon's vote on them, and I'm guessing the rest of the votes hadn't taken long to follow, so it's probable that they in fact were around. Though I can't be sure since the posts don't show a timestamp like they usually do...they're all just marked 31 Dec 2019.  @Opal Lion could you shed some light on this please?

One of the kills was via dustbringer - interesting that they didn't target one of the barely actives or Opal

Also, @Elbereth Can we rely on the writeups when it comes to differentiating between an elim and dustbringer kill? 

[Amethyst Scorpion]

3 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

One of the kills was via dustbringer - interesting that they didn't target one of the barely actives or Opal

The particular targets of the kills suggest both likely came from elims. If Opal is elim, they obviously wouldn't be a target. If Opal is not, then keeping them alive for further lynch diversion is better.

I've not been feeling well the last few days. I'll try to contribute more, but I lost track of discussions about halfway through last day turn.

[Indigo Weasel]

Well, it seems pretty obvious that the second edgedancer message was from @Emerald Falcon (nice Destiny 1 lore).

[Emerald Falcon]

My dear Weasel, whyever would you say that? Do you truly believe me so incapable of going a single turn without a Destiny reference? Truly?

[Magenta Albatross]

@Plum Rhinoceros Rhino. I got Skybreaker last cycle and still felt like something was off about your posts. I’m glad I was right. I scanned Rhino as an elim. Someone else did as well and told me, but I’d rather be able to keep their identity secret so the elims only have one confirmed villager to attack tonight.

Anyway, I’m gonna go back through Rhino’s posts later and see who they were avoiding talking about and what they were saying about other players and see if I can figure out who his other 2-3 teammates are. 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

9 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

@Plum Rhinoceros Rhino. I got Skybreaker last cycle and still felt like something was off about your posts. I’m glad I was right. I scanned Rhino as an elim. Someone else did as well and told me, but I’d rather be able to keep their identity secret so the elims only have one confirmed villager to attack tonight.

Anyway, I’m gonna go back through Rhino’s posts later and see who they were avoiding talking about and what they were saying about other players and see if I can figure out who his other 2-3 teammates are. 

What?? Preposterous! Nothing more than an elim ploy! Albatross, what do you hope to achieve by this?? You’re gonna get lynched the moment I flip village! What secret role do you possess? 
It’s easy to claim that someone else also got the same result. Reveal yourself, coward. :} 

[Saffron Iguana]

Well, that makes things rather easy for the lynch, doesn't it  Rhino

 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

7 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said:

Well, that makes things rather easy for the lynch, doesn't it  Rhino

Ouch I thought we had this trust thing going, Iguana  

[Amber Vulture]

As it's not LyLo and there are no roles or interactions that would cause a false elim scan, it's standard procedure to vote for Rhino with the understanding that Albatross's life is forfeit should Rhino be a villager.

Looking through Rhino's posts, potential leads are the supposed person who was discussing the possibility in PMs with Rhino that Iguana bussed a teammate. Was there such a person who had this conversation? If so, what views did Rhino express?

Opal Lion seems more likely to be good in this scenario assuming Rhino flips elim, although preliminary votes aren't particularly useful in determining teammates since they're changed easily. Iguana is also more likely village given Rhino's vote last cycle.

[Opal Lion]

3 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Opal Lion for now. I wasn't around to see the lynch that formed on you near the end of D2 but not claiming Elsecaller in that situation is quite incriminating in and of itself. 

They did post after Falcon's vote on them, and I'm guessing the rest of the votes hadn't taken long to follow, so it's probable that they in fact were around. Though I can't be sure since the posts don't show a timestamp like they usually do...they're all just marked 31 Dec 2019.  @Opal Lion could you shed some light on this please?

One of the kills was via dustbringer - interesting that they didn't target one of the barely actives or Opal

Also, @Elbereth Can we rely on the writeups when it comes to differentiating between an elim and dustbringer kill? 

The rest of the votes were actually several hours later in the cycle, IIRC. I waited around for a while after that, to see if Emerald would respond, but when I went to bed there was still only two votes on me (compared to Albatross's three). Hindsight is 20/20- claiming then would probably have been the smarter move, but I didn't want to disallow the possibility of an elim kill hitting me... and I didn't expect the lynch to swing so fast.

Also Rhino, because we're guaranteed that at least one of Albatross and Rhino is elim. More analysis to come later, if I have time.  

 

Edited January 1, 2020 by Opal Lion

[Magenta Albatross]

27 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

What?? Preposterous! Nothing more than an elim ploy! Albatross, what do you hope to achieve by this?? You’re gonna get lynched the moment I flip village! What secret role do you possess? 
It’s easy to claim that someone else also got the same result. Reveal yourself, coward. :} 

I mean, if I was an elim, I’d basically be guaranteeing my own lynch tomorrow if you flipped village. 

Also, if you look on the bright side, at least you can troll as an outed elim now!

9 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said:

Well, that makes things rather easy for the lynch, doesn't it  Rhino

It does make things easy, but I don’t want it to stifle discussion. We’ve got a cycle to plan who our next lynch is, which gives us a huge advantage over the elims. When I get a chance later to go back through and read the thread again, I’m gonna be trying to figure out what I can get from Rhino’s posts.

3 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Ouch I thought we had this trust thing going, Iguana  

To be fair, I was really hoping my initial read of you was wrong and you’d scan villager so I could have someone I know is good to talk to. Alas, I had the unfortunate luck of being right about my gut read for once.

3 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Opal Lion seems more likely to be good in this scenario assuming Rhino flips elim, although preliminary votes aren't particularly useful in determining teammates since they're changed easily. Iguana is also more likely village given Rhino's vote last cycle.

I’m curious how you reached these conclusions. I think I understand the part about Igauna (to be fair, I’ve trusted them for awhile now anyway), but I’m not sure why this makes Lion more likely to be good?