Saffron Iguana

Good game everyone (especially the village)! Playing this game made me aware of how rusty I am. Accidentally voted on a teammate D1 which ended up getting me killed Day 2. Though I was hoping my discussion of Octo would bail me out there. I am still somewhat baffled as to why the village almost exed Octo D2, though in light of the distro it makes a bit more sense. I realized partway through the day that defending Octo 100% would be something of an elim tell once he flipped village CS. I’m not really sure I have comprehensive distro thoughts. Probably the main thing is that I’m not a fan of a setup where villagers can both be unkillable (multiple Lurchers) and have a Seeker. That puts a ton of pressure of inevitability on the elims, where every blocked kill feels extra bad because you know either a villager was cleared or a teammate has been outed. None of that really ended up mattering this game due to our blunders and crazy village competency, but I think removing the village Kandra would go a long way toward making this setup better, while still holding to its essence. The mistborn would still be a potential problem there (being able to scan the CS and Lurcher claims, notably) but I think they would feel more manageable.

Guess that’s it then.

I’m already doing that…

This stinks. The only way I could save myself here would be to kill Octo, but I still lean toward them telling the truth. I suppose on the plus side the elims probably don’t have vote manip.

Yeah. Rhino Toucan.

My prediction is everyone gets cold feet about Octo at the last minute and switches to me.

This seems like a non-sequitur to me, though I have to admit that I haven't really been able to interpret a lot of what you've been saying this game. Seems a bit odd that the moment I try and create a counter-train to Octo that the two people I'm voting with immediately switch, and one of them onto me. I'd still rather Octo die than Heron, but literally everyone with votes now other than Rhino is on my "Don't exe today" list.

I think I'll switch from Toucan to Rhino. I have a preference for the former but I'm still not sold on e!Octo, and of the current available options I have a decent village read on Heron, while Rhino is in my POE. I'm also v!reading Alb right now, so I'm not really a fan of Rhino's vote.

With 2-3 Lurcher claims (depending on Dingo's seriousness) I'm tempted to buy into an elim Coinshot. I don't think that explains Croc's death though, and if Octo is elim then he's probably vanilla or a Thug or something. Since PMs are up, if Octo is elim, either the elims had an extra kill that they used on a teammate, or a villager killed Croc. In the latter case, e!Octo is trying to get the villager responsible to reveal. But since PMs are open, that villager could just claim to someone they trust. Of course, Octo's post was pretty early in the day, so they might have missed PMs being available. There are also Kandra to consider; like Heron said, if there is a Village Kandra that didn't claim the Seeker role last night then e!Octo probably wouldn't make the play everyone is theorizing. So if Octo is elim, the elims probably have a Kandra that hasn't used their ability yet. That might actually make sense, if they thought they could trade Octo for a Coinshot. Okay, maybe everyone voting Octo isn't as kayana as I thought. Still seems a bit weird given that the elims have lost 2 players, but a Coinshot doubles their killing power so as long as they have 2 people left the play kinda makes sense.

It's a cost/benefit thing. It's basically never worth it as an elim to trade for a single villager unless your death was imminent regardless. Simply put, there are more elims than villagers. Any elim team that's happy to trade 1-1 with the village will lose rather quickly. Nowhere here am I saying that it was wise of v!Octo to claim.

So you think someone else killed Croc and they just aren’t speaking up? To elaborate a bit more, Octo and Axol are on my short list not just because of their claims, but because there is stuff in the writeup that reflects their claims. In particular, I’d say after Beagle that Octo is the next most village person in the game. Why would e!Octo make a claim that could be easily disproven when the elims have already lost 2 players? Honestly, if you weren’t involved in exeing Kanga then this post would be enough for me to vote on you.

We’ve got the 5 players that voted Kanga, Heron seems to be playing the way v!Heron plays, Octo claimed to have killed Croc, and Axol claimed Lurcher.

I go by Johnson, by the way.

Short list of people to not exe today: Heron Axol Beagle Octo Gecko DF Weasel Meerkat I'm not sure any of those are notable or controversial, though some will certainly be worth revisiting later. Beagle is easily my strongest village read, for proposing the Kanga exe and following through on it. Notably, the potential existence of a village Kandra makes it very unlikely that the elims would vote out their own Seeker D1. And of course surviving a kill is just a cherry on top of all that. Okay, so that leaves the following (minus myself): Sunburst Toucan Sapphire Elephant Quartz Zebra Plum Rhinoceros Pearl Chameleon Opal Lion Onyx Flamingo Melon Dingo Magenta Albatross Lion and Cham both haven't posted to my knowledge, so we should be able to do better than them. I kinda like Alb's reaction to the D1 exe, even if it didn't make any sense. Toucan "switching" onto Axol seems rather suspicious. Honestly nothing about their D1 play sticks out to me. I think I lean toward the Axol train being clean other than Croc. The lack of a Riot from Croc makes me think the elims just weren't involved much in the EOD shenanigans. That rules out Dingo and Flamingo. So that leaves me with Toucan, Elephant, Zebra, and Rhino. Probably a couple of elims in there. My vote will go on Toucan for the aforementioned night vote on Axol, and maybe I'll be up to rereading D1 to look at the other three more closely.

So my vote went on Octo rather than someone else specifically because of the Octo-DF interactions. I was thinking that DF might consider switching onto Octo if Octo became a valid train. Not sure in retrospect if that makes any sense, but that was my thought process in the moment.