Jump to content

Recommended Posts

I've done a reread of Rhino's posts before he got outed, and here are some observations.

Here he speculates that either Tuatara or Albatross are elims because of the vote manipulation around the D1 lynch. I reckon we can safely assume both are villagers. Especially as one is dead and the other one was the one to scan rhino... I promise, I have some more insightful insights in a bit (I hope, I'm typing this as I go).

A couple of things of note. Rhino's really hedgy on Falcon, which bothers me a bit. Elim hedginess generally occurs when they think a team-mate has messed up somewhere (a villager messing up gets jumped on, but if a team-mate makes a mistake you don't want to be the one to cause the lynch, but be ready to bus), when they think someone has done something to get them soft-cleared, but realize not everyone agrees (if there's a chance to lynch someone that should have been confirmed village, they want to be ready to swing that way instead), or when they're lynching a villager (they want to avoid looking suspicious when they mislynch). Falcon might be the first type, though I'm having trouble seeing falcon being an elim. When I have the time I'll need to reread them.

They also show the same hedginess around me and Toucan, but I'll leave it to others to determiner what that means.

Also, Rhino once again expresses solid suspicion of Albatross, which makes em further lean village on them.

In this post Rhino speculates whether there's only 2 elims left. I think we can consider that to be misdirection. Rhino also talks a bunch about me, but I'll once again leave it to others to determine what that means.

Lastly, there's Rhino's first post of today (I think we can safely disregard everything after that as smoke, mirrors, misdirection and trollish fun), in which they start by going after Lion. I don't believe that this clears Lion myself. He echoes arguments made before by, among others, me so he might just have been getting a headstart on a bus he considers extremely likely. It doesn't condemn Lion in anyway either, but I'm not clearing Lion solely on that post by Rhino.

Edited by Saffron Iguana
grammar
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Violet Axolotl said:

Well then. Rhino . There goes yet another of the interesting pms :[

I greatly enjoyed it :(. Truly. 

7 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said:

I've done a reread of Rhino's posts before he got outed, and here are some observations.

Here he speculates that either Tuatara or Albatross are elims because of the vote manipulation around the D1 lynch. I reckon we can safely assume both are villagers. Especially as one is dead and the other one was the one to scan rhino... I promise, I have some more insightful insights in a bit (I hope, I'm typing this as I go).

A couple of things of note. Rhino's really hedgy on Falcon, which bothers me a bit. Elim hedginess generally occurs when they think a team-mate has messed up somewhere (a villager messing up gets jumped on, but if a team-mate makes a mistake you don't want to be the one to cause the lynch, but be ready to bus), when they think someone has done something to get them soft-cleared, but realize not everyone agrees (if there's a chance to lynch someone that should have been confirmed village, they want to be ready to swing that way instead), or when they're lynching a villager (they want to avoid looking suspicious when they mislynch). Falcon might be the first type, though I'm having trouble seeing falcon being an elim. When I have the time I'll need to reread them.

They also show the some hedginess around em and Toucan, but I'll leave it to others to determiner what that means.

Also, Rhino once again expresses solid suspicion of Albatross, which makes em further lean village on them.

In this post Rhino speculates whether there's only 2 elims left. I think we can consider that to be misdirection. Rhino also talks a bunch about me, but I'll once again leave it to others to determine what that means.

Lastly, there's Rhino's first post of today (I think we can safely disregard everything after that as smoke, mirrors, misdirection and trollish fun), in which they start by going after Lion. I don't believe that this clears Lion myself. He echoes arguments made before by, among others, me so he might just have been getting a headstart on a bus he considers extremely likely. It doesn't condemn Lion in anyway either, but I'm not clearing Lion solely on that post by Rhino.

Y u gotta analyse so much :P I’m a simple guy. I say what I mean

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We ought to thank God always for you, brothers, as is fitting, because our strength flourishes ever more, and the love of every one of you for one another grows ever greater. Accordingly, we ourselves boast of you in the mountain of Urithuru regarding your endurance and faith in all your persecutions and the afflictions you endure.

This is evidence of the just judgment of Honor, so that you may be considered worthy of the kingdom of Honor for which you are suffering. For it is surely just on Honor’s part to repay with afflictions those who are afflicting you, and to grant rest along with us to you who are undergoing afflictions, at the revelation of the Stormfather from the clouds with his loyal spren, in blazing fire, inflicting punishment on those who do not acknowledge Honor and on those who do not obey the will of the Knights Radiant. These will pay the penalty of eternal ruin, separated from the presence of Honor and from the glory of his power, when he comes to be glorified among his holy ones and to be marveled at on that day among all who have believed, for our testimony to you was believed.

Plum Rhinoceros

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry for my relative absence from any substantial discussions. I feel like I'm just skimming by with a useless suggestion here or there. I'm feeling a bit better now, though, and will attempt some re-read (or really, first read in more than a semi-conscious state) of the thread.

I realize most people have moved past this, but I'm still getting my head back into the game. I'm writing this more for my own good. Regarding my suggestion D2 that Iguana bussed Zebra, I'm leaning fairly heavily village on Iguana now because of this post of Rhino's:

Rhino stated "we can afford to have a few mislynches" in a way that made it seem he was confident it would be a mislynch. 

This post makes me concerned there might actually be something in Dragonfly's posts:

I wasn't able to get any substantial information in my own review though, other than the vague statement of possible elims hiding at the edges.

I'm also leaning village on Octopus. Aligning so strongly with a lynch on Iguana along with Rhino D2 would have been dangerous as teammates. They've also made a lot of pretty good arguments and contributions overall.

Regarding Lion, I don't think I quite understand the lynch on them. Most of the votes with reasoning behind them are about Lion's hedgy opinions on Iguana. I can understand the hedginess, since the lynch on Iguana came from a paranoid mindset. It would be easy to understand and be concerned it might be true, but a more logical part of the brain suggests its absurd. At least a few of the votes seem to have only been because the voters didn't want to lynch Iguana or Toucan, rather than real suspicion. I still lean village, though if there's a concerned Skybreaker, a scan may not be a bad idea.

My brain has set sail again, so I'll have to continue this later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

On 1/1/2020 at 2:44 PM, Mint Heron said:

Because of Rhino's vehemence that Lion is an elim and my suspicion on Rhino, I am tempted to think that Lion is village, though I'll be re-reading the thread. 

EDIT: Okay, so the main reason for suspicion on Lion was Lion's proposal of a lynch on Iguana, who had lynched an elim. That was a strange move, and the reasoning just didn't seem right. Lion later backed down when many players were confused by Lion's actions. Rhino was very much for the Lion lynch, and presumably still wishes to lynch Lion. I am moderately certain that Rhino is an elim because Albatross seems trustworthy and has claimed that Rhino was lying about having a PM between them. Therefore, Lion is probably village unless Albatross is a mastermind genius who has been fooling us all by lying about the existence of a PM, and that seems unlikely given how little effort Rhino has put into defending the claim. 

Thank you, Heron.

Now, for a look into Mauve Crocodile.

In Crocodile's first post, they poke vote Flamingo. This vote is so unmemorable that in a vote tally, they have to ask for it to be added.

In C2, they defend Iguana and Toucan, and vote on Albatross. 

In C3, they ask if we can use a Dustbringer kill on Rhino and use the lynch on someone else instead. In a standard game with a consistent vigilante kill (AKA one with less worldhoppers that make things unpredictable), this wouldn't be such a bad idea. Still, in this case, that plan might've kept Rhino alive a little longer. Possible Sympathizer motive 

Nothing strikes me as particularly suspicious here, but I dislike the lack of content as a whole. Unless that changes, I wouldn't mind Crocodile being picked off by a Dustbringer kill. Even if they were village, I don't think we'd feel the lack.

@Mauve Crocodile, you mentioned that you were going to RP, what happened to that? What do you think of Sage Kangaroo?

While we're here -- @Sage Kangaroo, what do you think of Opal Lion?


"Of course even your dogs are weird," Sein said. He shook in the air agitatedly. "I'm definitely not in the past. Too many things don't line up. You don't recognize the Traveler, so you'd have to be pre-Golden Age or in the middle of the Dark Age. There's no wireless transmissions of any point, which rules out the Golden Age, because they definitely had the internet during then. And none of this stuff fits the Dark Age either. Humanity lost a lot of knowledge during that, but not enough to forget the solar system, develop hundreds of new languages, and rename everything. Plus," and here he looked at Jonan and Jesh, "you don't look like the humans I know. None of them have such brightly colored eyes while still having pink to brown skin color."

Sein flew off to the next room before they could answer. For the first time, he realized the gravity of his situation. He couldn't just pretend he was in the Dark Age of humanity anymore. He was lost, alone, and in some bizarro world where the Traveler didn't exist and the dogs were crustaceans. He checked his Light reserves, the thing that powered him, gave him sapience, made him live. Since entering this place, his Light had drained 0.3%. A small amount, but eventually, he would run out. Without the Traveler, he had no way to replenish it. Eventually, he would run out. Shut down. Become a lifeless lump of metal and glass impossibly far from home.

He stopped in front of a large window, blue eye dim. It opened to a large mountain range going as far as he could see, with the western horizon darkened with angry clouds. Large snake things with fins circled in the sky, despite the fact that they should be too heavy to fly. Another reminder that this wasn't Sein's world.

Still, there was a strange grace to these snake things. They danced through the sky, swooping and soaring joyfully through the clouds. Sein watched as one dove for the ground, far, far away. Its tucked its fins in and streaked downwards. A trail of colorful lights followed its path. Bioluminescence? No, these lights emanated paracausal power, the same type that Sein had felt when he scanned the spren earlier.

A human man flew in the sky towards the snakes, carrying a ridiculously oversized sword. A moment later, the sword morphed into a spear. He jabbed and changed direction, suddenly flying sideways. No, flying was the wrong word -- he was accelerating sideways at a constant just slightly off of 9.8 meters per second squared. A smokey light leaked out of his eyes and ears, similar to the spheres Sein had seen earlier. Joy filled his face, a joy that Sein recognized. Though the exact movements were different, he looked like so many Guardians that Sein had seen before, bounding through the air, pushing movement beyond where the body could normally go.

Sein blinked, slowly. This world was strange and different. Still, he had seen literal aliens before. He had skimmed the waves of a liquid methane ocean on Titan. He had visited a kennel of rehabilitated warbeast, which were another alien version of dogs tamed to be friendly to Humanity. If he could accept all of that, then he could accept Roshar. Axehounds and all.

If he was doomed to die here without the Light, he might as well find out as much about it as he could.

@Amethyst Scorpion @Magenta Albatross

Edited by Emerald Falcon
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/1/2020 at 8:34 AM, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Also, @Elbereth Can we rely on the writeups when it comes to differentiating between an elim and dustbringer kill? 

Yes. 

On 1/1/2020 at 1:43 PM, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Radiants, I’ve a very important announcement to make. 
I got Skybreaker C1 and Elbereth is an elim.  

Bold words when you're about to be lynched. :P 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jesh snapped back to reality - he'd been daydreaming of one day being a Radiant like  Kaladin Stormblessed - in time to see Sein dart away. Jesh cried out and chased him, but the spren was too quick. He lost sight after just a few moments.

It wasn't long before he caught up, though. Sein was looking out if a window, strange spikes spinning and whirring. He seemed... sad, somehow.

"Sein?" Jesh asked in a quiet voice. The one he used when his mom was mad or sad about his dad and Jesh wanted to help. "We can help you get home, if you want. You don't even have to keep helping me find Trisk. She'll probably find her own way, anyways."

Despite what he said, Jesh couldn't help but feel sad at the thought of losing the spren. He was more interesting than anything he'd seen in his life. But he missed his old home. The tower was strange and creepy. Not like the cozy house they'd had at the edge of the warcamp, with space for Trisk to run an play. She and Jesh had enjoyed hours of fetch out there.

Tears started to form in Jesh's eyes. He was losing everything he loved.

@Magenta Albatross @Emerald Falcon

Edited by Amethyst Scorpion
Added tags because they won't appear on mobile
Link to comment
Share on other sites

“No, he clearly couldn’t be a Sympathiser! How can you accuse him after he participated in the death of Aruana?” 

“It was all a farce, I’m telling you! They did it to get our trust! We need to look harder into both him and Bomer!”

“Now you’re just sounding like Krask. Bomer’s dead, and has been for a while, and you’re just afraid your friend you’ve been kicking around with for a while is evil! Or you are yourself…”

Logalog of Mossflower shoved the bickering voices to the back of his head, muting them to a dull whine. Which, frankly, they were. He had figured that these humans, even on a highly dangerous planet in a city fatal to the unwary, would find a way to work together, but more often than not they simply argued and fought, worse than shrews at some points. Shrews knew better than to let argumentation descend into killing, at least on his watch. Despite the odd traitor or deserter, the Guosim had continued strong that way, with friendly, nonfatal duels settling disputes and the tribe moving on as normal. Humans, though...you could never tell who the vermin was until it was too late, and everyone you thought was a friend of yours could turn their back on you in an instant. And the bickering was something he’d still not figured out how to solve. This made his tribe look tame by comparison, though it did appeal to the confrontational part of him.

Logalog threw in his thoughts on the oddly named “Tnaidar” (even otters didn’t name their kids something weird like that, and those otter chaps were downright strange. Good allies to have in the water, though) who he suspected looked suspicious to the humans, what with the narrowed eyes and downcast looks he was always casting about, looking like a shifty ferret trying to go unseen and failing miserably; plus, he was always off on scouting missions, and scouts were easy to blame. He knew, having nearly gotten his tail tanned as one for missing a small water rat, so he figured missing an enormous hostile deity was even worse. Impeccable logic, or at least good enough to suit his tastes. Participation finished for the day, he pivoted to leave, tucking in his tail underneath him and settling into the next best thing he’d found to a logboat—a hollowed shell of some vile creature with cartwheels attached to it, allowing it to be used without waterways. He was still surprised and disappointed at the lack of forests on this new planet—whatever the humans claimed, sipping violet wine in their large ships on a turbulent ocean was no match for a good October ale in a well-crafted logboat on a lazy woodland stream. And there was no way to enjoy the smallest portion of that on this planet, at least around Alethkar. Maybe once he was allowed out of this cursed city, he would retire to Shinovar. From the sounds of it, at least that place was green. 

He suddenly noticed that the assembled voices had gone quiet, and not from a cat eating them all, unfortunately. And they were staring at him? He bothered to listen again, and it looked to be Jonan speaking. That’s not a bad name. Better than Tnaidar, at least.

“...searched and questioned him last night, and he’s not only from some crazed world he insists on calling ‘Mossflower,’ he admitted allegiance to Odium!”

Logalog sighed. Of course they would go after him eventually. He shook his head at himself—I really am getting grey in the whiskers if I’m answering questions from random humans—and set his makeshift land-boat rolling. It creaked, but held together, speeding away from the assembly and drawing cries of surprise. Good. Two others, including the leader, a female named Kareana, tried to cut off his path, so he pivoted, gripping the sides of his boat with his paws and turning it. 

There was an audible pop as the first wheel broke free of its axle, the flimsy structure unable to accommodate the sharpness of the turn, and the others soon followed, tumbling off. Logalog swore, drawing his tail back up to avoid getting it crushed underneath the disintegrating logboat, and clung on for dear life as he closed his eyes. 

There was a bright flash of light, and the clamor of the fighting instantly subsided; he re-opened his beady eyes, casting them about. Still no forest; instead, a sea of small spheres which seemed infinite, extending in every direction, though the surface was still. Pearls? Or perhaps ordinary beads. He pinched himself, discovering he still had a full body. Not the gates of Dark Forest made specifically for roving shrews, then, he thought wryly. Looking down, his paws were tucked into an actual logboat, made from a good rowan or beech, and an oar was in his hands. Well, this was a spot of fortune, and much better than being killed by the humans back there. He began paddling through the sea, his spirits good as he plotted his return to Mossflower. None of this made sense to him, but that could be figured out later—right now, he was in his element. Munching on the end of a loaf he’d brought with him, he took up humming to himself an old shrew ditty. 

Whum chakka um chakka chumchakka whum!

Guosim dig yore paddle deep,

Hurly-burly river wide'n'curly,

There’s no time to sleep.

Whum chakka um chakka chumchakka whum!

Rapid wild and fast do go,

Hurly-burly river wide'n'curly,

Bend yore backs an’ row.

Whum chakka um chakka chumchakka whum!

Keep her bows up in the foam,

Hurly-burly river wide'n'curly,

Logboat take us home.

Whum chakka um chakka chumchakka…


Recruit. Survive. Protect Kareana.

That’s all the Ghostbloods had given Ellira. She didn’t even know why Kareana needed to be protected - if she was a Ghostblood, Ellira had been unaware, and she was pretty sure she knew the majority of the Ghostbloods in Urithiru at this point. 

She returned and reported the... darkness-spren-thing... to Kareana, mainly because if Errdal did and she didn’t, it’d draw suspicion on her. 

Then she passed the orders on to Cadamum and the other Ghostbloods in the group. Conversation seemed different, tonight - more subdued, but also more excited, as Worldhoppers felt free to talk about their places of origin for the first time. 

Ellira, for herself, didn’t specify, just smiled slightly whenever asked and turned the question back on them. She’d not had magic back on Sel, of course - she had dealt with danger only with wits, charm, and steel. Most of the others here hadn’t had the benefit of that experience, and it showed. 

So she flirted and laughed, watching them dismiss a pretty face as nothing more. It was really quite convenient, she reflected, that safehands were a norm here. It was a fantastic hiding spot, and Ellira loved knowing how easy their deaths would be in a single movement. Shardblades were too slow, in her opinion - she could kill in ten heartbeats. 

But for now, she played nice and made friends. And when she went to bed, she slept only a few feet from Kareana’s bedroll. 

 


Plum Rhinoceros was lynched, but survived! 

Vote Count
Plum Rhinoceros (13): Amber Vulture, Coral Swan, Emerald Falcon, Indigo Weasel, Magenta Albatross, Mauve Crocodile, Mint Heron, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana, Salmon Meerkat, Scarlet Octopus, Taupe Gecko, Violet Axolotl

Opal Lion (1): Plum Rhinoceros

Night 3 has begun! It will end in approximately 22.5 hours, at 4 AM Eastern Time on 4 January 2020. 

All credit to El for writing the section on Ellira.

PMs remain completely open.

Player List

1. Amber Vulture: Jashi, Stormwarden
2. Amethyst Scorpion: Jesh, Lost Axehound
3. Chartreuse Penguin: Taladir, Gambler Radiant Worldhopper
4. Coral Swan: Germaine, Scholar
5. Cream Tuatara: Dfyan, Scholar Radiant Worldhopper
6. Emerald Falcon: Sein, Inquisitive
7. Indigo Weasel: Adhom Inem, Ardent
8. Ivory Dragonfly: Krask, Conspiracy Theorist Sympathiser Worldhopper
9. Magenta Albatross: Jonan Wikim, Lost Axehound (Gren)
10. Mauve Crocodile: Sernes, Paranoid Scout
11. Mint Heron: Sam, Once a Darkeyes
12. Onyx Flamingo: Kir, Kleptomaniac Scout
13. Opal Lion: Tnaidar, Scout
14. Pearl Chameleon: Purrl, Adolin’s Former Girlfriend
15. Plum Rhinoceros: Logalog, Scholar
16. Quartz Zebra: Arauna Khadal, Adolin’s Former Girlfriend Sympathiser Worldhopper
17. Saffron Iguana: Merinira, Scout
18. Sage Kangaroo: Gilglin, Ardent (Devotary of the Mind)
19. Salmon Meerkat: Cadamum, Ghostblood Recruit
20. Scarlet Octopus: Max Mercury, Past Lives
21. Sunburst Toucan: Tafud, Slightly Crazy
22. Taupe Gecko: Brana, Scholar
23. Turquoise Gorilla: Bomer, Gambler Radiant Worldhopper
24. Violet Axolotl: Adi, Anxious

Edited by Fifth Scholar
Somehow the [hr] function works only for El and not for me :P
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, it only looks bad if you assume I knew Rhino had an extra life in the first place. I also did say that we should try and get a couple of Dustbringers, because of this possibility and because of Windrunners. I'll also note that if we had known Rhino was an Elsecaller, we would have been best off just ignoring him for the cycle, since there are rather low odds (3/64) of rolling Elsecaller a second time before getting some other role.

I also rolled Dustbringer this cycle, which is what prompted that comment in the thread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with the dustbringer analysis. Also, to be clear, is anyone not a world hopper? Did we ever confirm that theory?

55 minutes ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

Well, it only looks bad if you assume I knew Rhino had an extra life in the first place. I also did say that we should try and get a couple of Dustbringers, because of this possibility and because of Windrunners. I'll also note that if we had known Rhino was an Elsecaller, we would have been best off just ignoring him for the cycle, since there are rather low odds (3/64) of rolling Elsecaller a second time before getting some other role.

I also rolled Dustbringer this cycle, which is what prompted that comment in the thread.

Assuming that everyone is a worldhopper. How could you have known that Plum rolled Elsecaller? The only way you would know that is if Plum Rhino was your teamate (which seems pretty out their for the elims to bus their own teamate when they're already down two).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Assuming that everyone is a worldhopper. How could you have known that Plum rolled Elsecaller? The only way you would know that is if Plum Rhino was your teamate (which seems pretty out their for the elims to bus their own teamate when they're already down two).

Actually, I could have known this if I scanned him last cycle (but that is beside the point). Falcon is accusing me of being an elim, on the basis of my suggestion to the thread last cycle. The argument goes:

Assumption 1: Killing Rhino in the Night fails (or probably fails) if Rhino is an Elsecaller.
Assumption 2: It is Very Bad if Rhino doesn't die this cycle. 
Assumption 3: The elims would sacrifice a 4th member of their team to have a chance to delay Rhino's death.
Fact 1: Croc suggests killing Rhino during the Night.
Fact 2: Rhino is an Elsecaller.
Subconclusion: Croc is trying to delay the death of Rhino.
Conclusion: Croc is suspicious/an elim.

Now, I may have summarized those assumptions incorrectly, but as I see it, they are not worth building an argument from. The risk/reward ratio for the elims here is far too high for them to bother with a ploy here. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

Actually, I could have known this if I scanned him last cycle (but that is beside the point). Falcon is accusing me of being an elim, on the basis of my suggestion to the thread last cycle. The argument goes

I agree with most of your analysis, except I've had a skybreaker role already, and all the info I got was that the player was a village worldhopper. So I didn't get to know the specific role he had that cycle. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

I agree with most of your analysis, except I've had a skybreaker role already, and all the info I got was that the player was a village worldhopper. So I didn't get to know the specific role he had that cycle. 

While that is a point against Crocodile, all this really shows is that they haven't had a chance to be a Skybreaker yet. So they don't really know how the scans work for worldhoppers yet. 

Also, that's unfortunate about Rhino being an Elsecaller. At least we know that, if they somehow survive tonight too, we're almost guaranteed a lynch on them next cycle. I just hope it doesn't have to come to that point. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

I agree with most of your analysis, except I've had a skybreaker role already, and all the info I got was that the player was a village worldhopper. So I didn't get to know the specific role he had that cycle. 

Oh yeah. You'd think after playing with this ruleset as many times as I have, something would stick. The name change from the Mistborn roles is what's throwing me off. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...