Amber Vulture Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said: I’m curious how you reached these conclusions. I think I understand the part about Igauna (to be fair, I’ve trusted them for awhile now anyway), but I’m not sure why this makes Lion more likely to be good? Changing views on Lion are solely because Rhino voted for Lion this cycle, which is why I added the caveat that early cycle votes aren't necessarily indicative of not being on the same elim team.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: As it's not LyLo and there are no roles or interactions that would cause a false elim scan, it's standard procedure to vote for Rhino with the understanding that Albatross's life is forfeit should Rhino be a villager. Looking through Rhino's posts, potential leads are the supposed person who was discussing the possibility in PMs with Rhino that Iguana bussed a teammate. Was there such a person who had this conversation? If so, what views did Rhino express? Opal Lion seems more likely to be good in this scenario assuming Rhino flips elim, although preliminary votes aren't particularly useful in determining teammates since they're changed easily. Iguana is also more likely village given Rhino's vote last cycle. Promise me you'll avenge me, Amber I made that part up. Perhaps. Yes Please don't hurt Opal... their avatar is too cute 3 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said: I mean, if I was an elim, I’d basically be guaranteeing my own lynch tomorrow if you flipped village. 'Small price to pay for salvation' 4 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said: To be fair, I was really hoping my initial read of you was wrong and you’d scan villager so I could have someone I know is good to talk to. Alas, I had the unfortunate luck of being right about my gut read for once. What do you mean? Our PM has been on fire. I didn't know I was getting elim'd the entire time 5 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said: I’m curious how you reached these conclusions. I think I understand the part about Igauna (to be fair, I’ve trusted them for awhile now anyway), but I’m not sure why this makes Lion more likely to be good? Because I scanned them.
Magenta Albatross Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 @Plum Rhinoceros I am going to ignore that post. We never had a PM (I think I would’ve remembered that), and I must assume everything else is just as fake. 18 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: Changing views on Lion are solely because Rhino voted for Lion this cycle, which is why I added the caveat that early cycle votes aren't necessarily indicative of not being on the same elim team. I think Lion’s more likely to be village than elim based on how Rhino’s been focusing on them, but a Skybreaker should probably scan them tonight to make sure.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said: ignore that post...everything else is just as fake and here we have Alb admitting to have falsely accused me. Obviously talking about this post.
Taupe Gecko Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Well, I was going to announce that after this post, it would be questionable how much I'd be able to get on until the very end of the discussion, so I'm glad the lynch isn't going to be an especially controversial pick this cycle (Rhino). That being said, we should probably talk about who our next in line candidates for lynching are once Rhino's out of the way. I'd again say Lion, based on my previous posts, and then beyond that it would possibly be Octopus. I'm kind of disappointed that no Dustbringers finished Lion off, tbh, since it would have given us a good deal more information to work from. Still, with 3 Elims down, that's plenty of associations and votes to go off of to try and narrow it down, anyway. I would not classify Albatross as a confirmed villager, though. If someone else told Albatross that they also scanned Rhino, then it's quite possible their hand was forced in revealing Rhino's flip to the thread or else show that they and Rhino are in cahoots together. I'm not sure I completely got why they were the leading candidate besides Lion last cycle, but it's something that I want to analyse more closely whenever I next have more time.
Emerald Falcon Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, Taupe Gecko said: That being said, we should probably talk about who our next in line candidates for lynching are once Rhino's out of the way. I'd again say Lion, based on my previous posts, and then beyond that it would possibly be Octopus. I'm kind of disappointed that no Dustbringers finished Lion off, tbh, since it would have given us a good deal more information to work from. Still, with 3 Elims down, that's plenty of associations and votes to go off of to try and narrow it down, anyway. Why are you suspicious of Octopus?
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: Well, I was going to announce that after this post, it would be questionable how much I'd be able to get on until the very end of the discussion, so I'm glad the lynch isn't going to be an especially controversial pick this cycle (Rhino). That being said, we should probably talk about who our next in line candidates for lynching are once Rhino's out of the way. I'd again say Lion, based on my previous posts, and then beyond that it would possibly be Octopus. I'm kind of disappointed that no Dustbringers finished Lion off, tbh, since it would have given us a good deal more information to work from. Still, with 3 Elims down, that's plenty of associations and votes to go off of to try and narrow it down, anyway. I would not classify Albatross as a confirmed villager, though. If someone else told Albatross that they also scanned Rhino, then it's quite possible their hand was forced in revealing Rhino's flip to the thread or else show that they and Rhino are in cahoots together. I'm not sure I completely got why they were the leading candidate besides Lion last cycle, but it's something that I want to analyse more closely whenever I next have more time. Wow Gecko you didnt really even talk about me in this post I’m offended. I barely got any spotlight time at all...Everybody wants to move on 2 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said: Why are you suspicious of Octopus? I subconsciously read your posts in a different voice because of that font
Taupe Gecko Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Quote If Lion is an Elim, then presumably they were either not active towards the end of the cycle, or decided it was better to let the lynch go through than to publicly defend Lion too much. This is harder, but I'd obviously put a strong trust on Falcon, and a slight suspicion on Octopus, who tried to cast suspicion on Falcon without ever tying themselves to Lion too closely, which is fairly consistent with how I'm expecting the Elim team to behave right now. (I say slight because the timeline doesn't exactly match up the way I expect it too, since Octopus first expresses suspicion of Falcon before Falcon votes on Lion, and then is the third vote on Lion, tying them with Albatross, which is slightly earlier than I'd expect an Elim to bus a colleague.) Extract from my post last night. Admittedly, it was partially also a gut read and my post was trying to figure out why I had it, but I try and find reasons for my suspicions so people can respond to them and defend themselves. To date, Octopus hasn't done so. If Lion flips Village, then my suspicion of Octopus would also go down a little. Just now, Plum Rhinoceros said: Wow Gecko you didnt really even talk about me in this post I’m offended. I barely got any spotlight time at all...Everybody wants to move on Good point. Let's fix that. Old Rhino was Odium's pet, Which made others so very upset. They were tossed off the tower, With words really quite sour, And they've still not reached bottom just yet. 1
Indigo Weasel Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 I scanned Albatross as a villager, so I trust them. Rhino.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Radiants, I’ve a very important announcement to make. I got Skybreaker C1 and Elbereth is an elim. 16 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: Good point. Let's fix that. Old Rhino was Odium's pet, Which made others so very upset. They were tossed off the tower, With words really quite sour, And they've still not reached bottom just yet. Thank you <3 Though I must disagree with the Odium bit. I only serve Queen Jasnah 7 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said: I scanned Albatross as a villager, so I trust them. Rhino. Albatross is my best friend 2
Magenta Albatross Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 (edited) 52 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: I would not classify Albatross as a confirmed villager, though. If someone else told Albatross that they also scanned Rhino, then it's quite possible their hand was forced in revealing Rhino's flip to the thread or else show that they and Rhino are in cahoots together. I'm not sure I completely got why they were the leading candidate besides Lion last cycle, but it's something that I want to analyse more closely whenever I next have more time. I hadn’t considered that as a possible reason I’d put Rhino as an elim. With how poorly the game’s been going for the elims, I don’t know if I would’ve bussed them if I were their teammate though. It would only take a quick scan to see if I’m elim for that bus to be done in vain if I was an elim. Also, I’m not quite sure what exactly I did that was worthy of me getting lynched last cycle either. ~~ Sein asked Jonan to explain the realms as if he didn’t know anything about them. He took a moment to gather his thoughts, because it’s been a long time since he’d had to explain this to someone uneducated. ”Okay,” Jonan said, “so, you’re familiar with the Physical Realm, which is where are now. Then there’s the Cognitive Realm, which is a reflection of the thoughts of all living creatures. In Roshar’s part of the Cognitive Realm, colloquially known as Shadesmar, land becomes a sea of beads and the water becomes land. ”The spren,” Jonan said, gesturing to a logicspren that had appeared as he’d begun talking, “are more fully in that realm than in this realm. What we see of them is just a reflection of their full form in Shadesmar. ”Then there’s the Spiritual Realm. There, all things and times are one. It is the source of all Investiture, as well. Also, the ideal form of all things is there as well.” ~~ Just got ninja’d by Gecko, Weasel, and Rhino. Edited January 1, 2020 by Magenta Albatross
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Rhino. Albatross's logic is strong. In the case Rhino was village we would just kill Albatross, which is hardly a smart move for an elim team already having lost two players. Either way we get an elim in two lynches, which is pretty good odds for the village.
Mauve Crocodile Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Hmm. Would it be worthwhile to Dustify Rhino and use the lynch on someone else? We’d run the risk of the kill getting blocked, but we probably have a couple of dustbringers at least, who could team up to overcome protection.
Scarlet Octopus Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Hey y'all. Happy new years. I'm going to be largely inactive till towards the end of the cycle. Feeling absolutely terrible. Carry on without me. I have read the thread though, and albatross is probably legitimate. Plum Rhino
Amber Vulture Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Mauve Crocodile said: Hmm. Would it be worthwhile to Dustify Rhino and use the lynch on someone else? We’d run the risk of the kill getting blocked, but we probably have a couple of dustbringers at least, who could team up to overcome protection. There's a decent chance that the elims have at least one windrunner this cycle, and if Rhino is an Elsecaller this cycle we'll want to know now by trying the lynch first. Rhino could also be a Dustbringer, so lynching could prevent an extra kill.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 17 minutes ago, Mauve Crocodile said: Hmm. Would it be worthwhile to Dustify Rhino and use the lynch on someone else? We’d run the risk of the kill getting blocked, but we probably have a couple of dustbringers at least, who could team up to overcome protection. yeah think I’ll take a rain check on this lynch 9 minutes ago, Scarlet Octopus said: Hey y'all. Happy new years. I'm going to be largely inactive till towards the end of the cycle. Feeling absolutely terrible. Carry on without me. I have read the thread though, and albatross is probably legitimate. Plum Rhino I hope you feel better soon (An Odious individual wouldn’t have said that.) 10 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: There's a decent chance that the elims have at least one windrunner this cycle, and if Rhino is an Elsecaller this cycle we'll want to know now by trying the lynch first. Rhino could also be a Dustbringer, so lynching could prevent an extra kill. uhm yeah im indeed an elsecaller this cycle! Don’t waste this lynch on me
Emerald Falcon Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, Mauve Crocodile said: Hmm. Would it be worthwhile to Dustify Rhino and use the lynch on someone else? We’d run the risk of the kill getting blocked, but we probably have a couple of dustbringers at least, who could team up to overcome protection. Unless at least two players publically volunteer to do the deed, I don't think we can rely on that. However, we may want to discuss people who we think the next worldhopper with a kill should attack. (I assume that someone has it this cycle.) We could have a separate system of votes in orange. Obviously, it won't be binding, but it would be a useful way to aggregate public opinion in case the worldhopper with the kill isn't sure what to do. This isn't intended to order them around, but to instead continue the discussion while still lynching Rhino. Right now, I think Heron is worth a poke, if only because of their lack of activity. @Mint Heron, what you do think of Opal Lion? Village or eliminator?
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Well, probably not the best idea to reveal the scans at the start of the cycle, since now I have to somehow up my activity when the lynch this cycle is basically a flowchart that everyone has to follow Gives me time to go over everything though, so I can delay that for tomorrow. Also only like 1 person will probably take me up on it, but I've gotten like no PMs and I do respond to any and all correspondence if anyone wants to chat game, chat non-game or have some help with any homework they've delayed doing over the holiday season
Magenta Albatross Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mauve Crocodile said: Hmm. Would it be worthwhile to Dustify Rhino and use the lynch on someone else? We’d run the risk of the kill getting blocked, but we probably have a couple of dustbringers at least, who could team up to overcome protection. I really don’t think that’s a smart idea. Keeping an elim alive for any reason sounds like a Bad Idea™ There are so many reasons I think it’s bad, but the biggest ones are 1) Rhino’s an Elsecaller and we waste the village Dustbringer kill tonight, 2) the elims have a Windrunner to protect Rhino, or 3) we waste a lynch on someone that’s village when we could’ve just lynched an elim. I’ll be honest, my first impression of this post was that Croc is an elim, but I’ve reread it a couple times, and I think they’re coming from a village standpoint. It’d be a good idea for a Skybreaker to scan Croc just in case at some point. Also, I think it’d be a good idea to recommend who Skybreakers should scan in purple, like how @Emerald Falcon recommended we recommend Dustbringers targets in orange. Edited January 1, 2020 by Magenta Albatross
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Well, first off, let's vote Rhino for obvious reasons. I skimmed D2, and it looks like the only vote on Rhino was by Amber, unless I missed one. My original thought was that that vote could have been a vote to try to bring up a new candidate in Hope's it would take off better than the currsnt lynch candidate, which at the time was Albatross. But seeing as Albatross is the one leading the discussion, it makes it less likely that Amber is Elim, based on the grounds that they were trying to save a teammate with their neck on the chopping block. ------- I'm somewhat uoset that my only active PM contact, gorilla, got killed, especially as I had scanned him N1 and confirmed him as villager. And I hadn't even told anyone else of his alignment scan, because I didnt want this to happen. We also had a fairly good conversation going, so I'm upset that I'll have to try to start all that over again. @Sunburst Toucan, I'll probably take you up on your offer to PM you. Please dont think of yourself as my rebound from Gorilla. You mean more to me than that. Plus you might have some good information that'll help my position in the ghostbloods.
Mauve Crocodile Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Hold on. If we are going to assume that the elims potential to counter a kill on Rhino outweighs re-purposing today lynch, then it is also a Bad Idea to reveal who our night roles are going to target. That makes it rather simple for an elim Lightweaver to obfuscate a scan, or a Windrunner to block our kill. This comment is specifically directed toward Albatross and Falcon.
Emerald Falcon Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said: "Okay,” Jonan said, “so, you’re familiar with the Physical Realm, which is where are now. Then there’s the Cognitive Realm, which is a reflection of the thoughts of all living creatures. In Roshar’s part of the Cognitive Realm, colloquially known as Shadesmar, land becomes a sea of beads and the water becomes land. ”The spren,” Jonan said, gesturing to a logicspren that had appeared as he’d begun talking, “are more fully in that realm than in this realm. What we see of them is just a reflection of their full form in Shadesmar. ”Then there’s the Spiritual Realm. There, all things and times are one. It is the source of all Investiture, as well. Also, the ideal form of all things is there as well.” Sein bobbed in the air as he turned the information over in his mind. The Cognitive Realm, where these spren lived, was easy enough to understand. These things had their own pocket dimension and could manifest outside of it in lesser ways, but didn't have full control over it. The beads and reverse seas sounded weird, but not beyond normal pocket dimension weirdness. Sein scrutinized the tiny dark cloud that had appeared around the man, the one which was apparently a spren. He flew around it curiously, surveying it from all angles with a blue line emanating from his eye. Even though it didn't have eyes or any other obvious sensory organs, he got the feeling that it was watching him too. The spren was made entirely of paracausal power. Not dazzling in the entire electromagnetic spectrum like the Light, not casting static on its own existence like the Darkness, not even slippery power waiting to be molded like an Ahamkara's. All Sein could sense of the paracausal power was that it existed. The rest of it actively resisted analysis, like an ivy-covered stone wall that refused to budge no matter how he bashed against it. It gave off no signs of life. No gas exchange, no metabolism, no release of heat from breaking down glucose for energy. It didn't even have a shadow on the ground. The spren vanished. Back into its Cognitive Realm, probably. "Now I know how the Vex feel about us," Sein muttered. He rebooted all his sensors, as if that would make the data he had collected make more sense. "Enough with this metaphysical stuff," Sein said. "What do your axehounds look like?" He hoped that doing something as mundane as finding their two dogs would force this world to make more sense. @Mauve Crocodile, no it won't. None of the Dustbringer or Skybreaker votes are binding. People could just as easily decide to take the person with the second-highest votes, or someone not mentioned at all. It's just a fancier way of stating trusts and suspicions. Edited January 1, 2020 by Emerald Falcon
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 7 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: Opal Lion for now. I wasn't around to see the lynch that formed on you near the end of D2 but not claiming Elsecaller in that situation is quite incriminating in and of itself. They did post after Falcon's vote on them, and I'm guessing the rest of the votes hadn't taken long to follow, so it's probable that they in fact were around. Though I can't be sure since the posts don't show a timestamp like they usually do...they're all just marked 31 Dec 2019. @Opal Lion could you shed some light on this please? One of the kills was via dustbringer - interesting that they didn't target one of the barely actives or Opal Also, @Elbereth Can we rely on the writeups when it comes to differentiating between an elim and dustbringer kill? This post is why I'm pretty certain Opal is a villager. Rhino seemed to be going after them pretty hard, likely planned with the other elim(s) to set up another mislynch. This was also before they could have known about the scan. Distancing wouldn't make sense, and attempting this hard of a bus would be dangerous.
Mint Heron Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said: Right now, I think Heron is worth a poke, if only because of their lack of activity. @Mint Heron, what you do think of Opal Lion? Village or eliminator? Because of Rhino's vehemence that Lion is an elim and my suspicion on Rhino, I am tempted to think that Lion is village, though I'll be re-reading the thread. EDIT: Okay, so the main reason for suspicion on Lion was Lion's proposal of a lynch on Iguana, who had lynched an elim. That was a strange move, and the reasoning just didn't seem right. Lion later backed down when many players were confused by Lion's actions. Rhino was very much for the Lion lynch, and presumably still wishes to lynch Lion. I am moderately certain that Rhino is an elim because Albatross seems trustworthy and has claimed that Rhino was lying about having a PM between them. Therefore, Lion is probably village unless Albatross is a mastermind genius who has been fooling us all by lying about the existence of a PM, and that seems unlikely given how little effort Rhino has put into defending the claim. Edited January 1, 2020 by Mint Heron Analysis
Magenta Albatross Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Emerald Falcon said: "Enough with this metaphysical stuff," Sein said. "What do your axehounds look like?" He hoped that doing something as mundane as finding their two dogs would force this world to make more sense. How do I explain what an axehound looks like? Jonan thought to himself. ”Well,” he said, “they’re not quite like actual hounds, or dogs, really. The naming itself is a remnant from when the humans on Roshar lived on Ashyn, and had dogs. Or at least had dog-like animals. ”Roshar’s axehounds are one of many of the native species to Roshar, kind of like a little Greatshell like you’d find in the Shattered Plains or like the Reshi Isles. ”As for what they look like, they’re covered in carapace, have six legs, and have angular heads with feather-like antennae.” Jonan had to pause for a moment. Talking about this was really making him miss Gren. He didn’t even know if she was still alive, though Ellira had mentioned she’d seen a couple axehounds leaving the room where Re-Shephir was. @Amethyst Scorpion 1
Recommended Posts