Mid-Range Game 36: The Northern Wind

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I suppose I can claim not to be the navigator like the other four five voters this cycle. I thought this would be a slightly bigger problem than it turned out to be. It's not necessarily too late to introduce new candidates to the lynch, but a lot of those people might not see it because I didn't follow Drake's advice. It's also possible we have enough time for impermanent votes, though it would have been better to put pressure on people earlier. Two votes on a person and a couple of one-off votes isn't a lot if the goal is to force potential elim teammates to respond in defence. It is true that the later in the cycle it gets, the more elim teammates should have stepped in. The sheer amount of time it took me to write this has made the option for temporary votes less reasonable. I'll still try to stick around for a little while longer so I don't end up missing responses like last cycle. 

It's tempting to just have the Trapper(s) deal with inactives, but there aren't enough Trappers around and any inactive hospitalised in this way will probably end up languishing in the hospital unless both they and a doctor are evil. We don't gain too much more from dismissing inactives though unless they're evil. And now I took so long that Alvron has posted, but is apparently too busy to make the lynch a tie.

Stick's lack of self-preservation instincts are a point in her favour, as 2-1-1-1 is dangerous even expecting teammate support. I don't know what we're going to do about our many inactives, but I'm not so sure dismissal is the right option at this point. Drake's initial post about village sabotage seemed like a very bold idea for an elim to propose. That trust has decreased somewhat, but not enough for a vote. I suppose Burnt has been around recently, and will hopefully provoke a response at least. @Burnt Spaghetti, what was your overall opinion of a C1 lynch on a minimally active? You seemed to support it, but were equally? satisfied that we'd lynched a player who would provide more information. Are your changed opinions on creating ties via voting on someone other than the two main candidates based on there previously being ties C1, or the fact that Striker's vote this cycle came at a time when the lynch was still wide open while your vote shift to anyone other than Aman or Elandera last cycle probably would have clinched a three way tie?

We currently have two votes to repair the bridge versus one vote to repair the brig. With half-repairs not showing up, it's far more difficult to judge our number of engineers by having them choose randomly between brig and bridge. Theoretically this is the best time short of dismissing/hospitalising the elim engineer to risk not fixing anything, but it would still be nice to have something up by tomorrow. If that choice is the bridge, so be it.

[BrightnessRadiant]

On 7/15/2019 at 6:13 AM, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Firstly- I bet my bird sounds more mournful than all y'alls bird so therefore mines best. My potoo is amazing and i'll fight all you people who got fancy birbs on that. Yeah i'm probably an idiot for telling you all what i did but cmon. i love my bird and you all need to know that.

Secondly, two sabotages. Thats a yikes and a big uh oh. On the plus no one was hospitalised from the brig being sabotaged, so i would take that to mean that no internal affairs people used their ability, which is a relief. But. Now they cant use that ability (a roleblock that also protects) which is a scary one to lose tbh. because now  theres not as much we can do to get in the way of an eliminators actions aside from dismissal or hospitalising them. Or the sak i guess. Still. Not having the brig is concerning.

As for the bridge being sabotaged, well, at least the navigator got one chance to use that? but now they cant reliably vote cause of being blinded and their vote will get randomised around so that'll be interesting...

Thirdly, Elendara. So. my initial thoughts is, they were good, so i would be looking at who voted for them initially, but Id also be looking at the people the vote was being moved away from-was this lynch protecting any elims? or was it just promoting chaos amongst only villagers that the elims just watched... idk im half asleep, imma do some thinking, maybe sleep, then comment more later

Okay, I'm going to post my thoughts on this post according to how Burnt split up her post:

Firstly- Telling us that you got a random bird could be true or it could be a subtle way of making everyone think that you took an action to get an aviar rather than to sabotage.

Secondly- The reaction to losing the brig could be real but it also feels like it could've been a fake reaction. I try not to read too much into reactions to things that happened in the cycles. Regardless of alignment people mourn or fake mourn in their posts generally lol. I don't see that losing the brig did that much other than knock us down to a regular MR without a brig mechanic. I don't see why the elims would knock out the brig over another section of the airship this early in game. I did mention that they might take out the brig at some point but I thought they'd only do that if they also had an inspector who would lock someone up and then take out the brig. But that would be like something to use late in game to get a double hit near the end. Not something to try cycle 1. The navigator could always have been an elim trying to prove striker's innocence cycle 1 by showing that he got the birds and didn't sabotage. That would be a move I'd consider on cycle 1 so that me getting the birds would look less evil as an elim. (not accusing, just speculating based on what I might suggest as an elim)

Thirdly- Pointing out that you will be looking specifically at the people who initially voted for Elandera etc is a tactic that elims often use to point blame on players for lynching a villager. While it is something you should look at, it just gives me a feeling that you're specifically placing extra seeds of doubt in people's minds about those players.

Overall my read on this post is that there's nothing in it that wouldn't be safe for an elim to say.

I really shouldn't analyze each post like this in a post of my own but I'd find it a little interesting if I do and make you all have to read it.

On 7/15/2019 at 9:11 AM, TheMightyLopen said:

Well, that almost certainly means the Saboteurs have an engineer. Which means we've got 4 more Cycles minimum. I'm gonna assume we've got some village engineers though, so hopefully they'll be able to repair a few parts and give us a couple more Cycles than that.

Nothing much to say about the lynch at the moment. Nothing stood out to me in particular, but I've only glanced over things, so I'll do another post later once I've got time.

Would it be possible for a villager engineer to have read my post last cycle or just to have thought to themselves that the brig is more potentially dangerous to leave available then it is good? I'm not saying i'm positive that would be true but I'm curious to the possibility that a village engineer would sabotage the brig to avoid the elims getting a hospitalization. I find it hard to believe that Rand would give the elims an engineer when there are only 17 players to begin with and the elims can already sabotage. I'm not ruling it out, just curious if a village engineer would've done it for some reason.

On 7/15/2019 at 9:41 AM, StrikerEZ said:

So...that’s kinda bad. There’s like a 99% chance that the elims have an engineer of their own, unless a village engineer was banking on internal affairs putting someone in the brig first. 

Also, since everyone knows that I targeted the Aviary anyway, I may as well tell y’all what I got. I got the Kukupa twins. I haven’t decided who I’m gonna PM yet though. 

Why would a village engineer want there to be someone in the brig when they sabotaged it on cycle 1? That seems far too risky.

On 7/15/2019 at 9:42 AM, _Stick_ said:

The Navigator’s vote is going to be randomly redirected today...If I were the Navigator I’d refrain from voting today as it would certainly give away my identity in the next cycle. 

Yeah, the 2 sabotages are worrying. If we don’t get engineers on repair duty quick the elims have an easy win. 

A shame about Elandera. I realise I probably look suspicious for slightly defending her in the last hour of the cycle and then voting on an entirely new lynch candidate when I could’ve voted on Aman to save Elandera. I’m hoping you guys see that that’s TWTBAW  

This post feels genuine to me. As a villager I often try and cut off people's suspicions before they start. Because *cough *cough people do what they've done this cycle and jump down your throat for stuff that's not even suspicious. xD Drake's vote on Stick for saying this seemed almost like a joke or slyly teasing someone but then he seemed to put more weight behind that suspicion in his next post. Striker's vote on her felt like someone trying to jump on the bandwagon and looking for an easy reason to lynch a villager. These were a few things I really wanted to mention from my first read through and it felt best to put them under this quoted post before I forget them. Striker has been giving me some bad vibes in this game and I could see a Striker/Drake team. (just a theory) 

On 7/15/2019 at 2:04 PM, MrakeDarshall said:

So the elims had an engineer. Unsurprising.

Is it? I'm a little surprised they'd have one in a game with so small a player count. I'm not positive they do have one tbh. I don't like to assume things like that early on. Why do you seem so unsurprised that they had one if they do?

On 7/15/2019 at 4:11 PM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I suppose a roleblock gives some of the useful information of an action scan, in that blocking someone corresponding to no sabotage or one sabotage and no hospitalisation implies that the player who was roleblocked is evil(unless the roleblocked player happened to be the target of the elim kill and the failed attack isn't indicated in the writeup). I suppose I'll vote brig for now and think more about it later.

Oh that's a good point. I can definitely see the elims trying to get the brig out early because of having their actions blocked and the inspector reporting that to the thread. Hm. I like this point. I'm reading village for that point of view.

I'm gonna pause right here and vote for Striker and then finish my post. I want this vote to be seen before the end of the cycle. HIs posts feel off to me and where Lopen claims that he seems to be talking off the top of his head, I don't necessarily read village on someone just for that. I'm gonna post some reasons why I think this:

First cycle he says that there are 4 players up for the lynch and that it would make 3/4 chances of there being an elim in that pile. He then adds another name onto the list instead of adding to one of the existing candidates (this can be a safe place for an elim because he says he doesn't want to break any ties and have the person flip village) He votes on an inactive because he hasn't found anyone he suspects. Not a terrible reason for a Cycle 1 vote but not an unsafe elim move either. Picking off an inactive can be an easy way to allow no information for the village. Plus, I wouldn't call someone being absent for part of 1 cycle them being inactive lol.

Then the post in this cycle about a village engineer wanting someone to be put in the brig when they sabotaged it? I don't understand that line of thinking.

Then his reads on people he starts out saying that Xino could be an inactive elim but then says that he doesn't think there would be 2 inactive elims? Who was the first one that you're so sure of?  (Oh nvm I see the thing about Aman later on)

Then the whole casting shade Stick's way after Drake already had seems like pushing for a stick lynch without actually having to vote for her himself. Pretty much all of his reads were neutral which doesn't tell us much if he gets lynched and flips elim. Pretty safe way to play a reads list while looking like you're posting a lot. (later on he does use the Stick thing as a reason to vote on her which could've been a way of playing it off as that was someone he had previously stated suspicion of in an earlier post.)

Takes his vote off of stick because he likes her response but then later puts it back onto stick. 

Hmmmmmmm okay so reading through some more Striker has actually voiced suspicions of Drake so maybe my theory about them isn't correct or maybe it's distancing. It looks like currently the vote is tied for 2 and 2 on stick and burnt. A vote on striker might not tell me as much right now as a vote on Drake if I think they have enough interactions to pull from since Drake already has 1 vote on him. Okay so strike the vote on striker for now lol. Gonna vote Drake and go back and do more analysis on him. 

 

Edit: sorry everyone I decided sleeping was more important to my health than doing more research. I'm happy with leaving the 3 way tie where it is for now. I am curious to Burn't alignment as well as Drake's so I'll let it stand there and go off to bed.

Edited July 17, 2019 by BrightnessRadiant

[Burnt Spaghetti]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

 I suppose Burnt has been around recently, and will hopefully provoke a response at least. @Burnt Spaghetti, what was your overall opinion of a C1 lynch on a minimally active? You seemed to support it, but were equally? satisfied that we'd lynched a player who would provide more information. Are your changed opinions on creating ties via voting on someone other than the two main candidates based on there previously being ties C1, or the fact that Striker's vote this cycle came at a time when the lynch was still wide open while your vote shift to anyone other than Aman or Elandera last cycle probably would have clinched a three way tie?

 

 

Overall opinion on a c1 lynch on a minimally inactive: if theres no suspicion based options then its better than nothing. But a lynch thatll gain info is much more useful.

Supported but equally happy about having a lynch with info: at the time the lynch was going to be on an inactive- An inactive and a player i used to love playing with when i used to play regularly. Also someone who if active would talk a lot, which honestly we could reaaally do with a player like aman rn imo, even if evil (besides, aman has a history of telling us if he's evil). So i didnt really want to leave him as the only lynch target. But i also had no suspicions. So i put up another inactive. If i had had suspicions then id have put forward another. But then finally people started talking and voting with more suspicion based reasoning rather than just 'theyre inactive'. So i was content. So basically, a lynch with info is best imo, but if the lynch is between a fully inactive and a minimal and i dont have a sus based option id vote for, ill support a minimal activity lynch.

 

opinions on creating ties via voting on someone other than the two main candidates:

Honestly i like two way ties. I dont like 3+ ties though. 3 or more is too many. But two is a simple coin flip, its easy for people to pick a side and then its interesting to see if people will try break that tie to defend one of the people there or not. 

So yeah c1 i was happy to leave it as aman vs elandera, a two way tie. Didnt want to make it a three way, also didnt have anyone else id really bother adding to the mix. Id put xino up to give aman a chance. Elandera being put up achieved the same thing. (I will be so upset if aman turns up and is evil after all this xD )

This cycle, i assume you're refering to me questioning strikers vote when he voted on stick. At the point there were only two votes in play, so didnt feel like it was a point where you had to commit to one or the other, so i was curious as to why then vote for stick, when he already said he frustrated that we were the options put up.  Why not add another option if you didnt like the ones presented- there was plenty of time left. So yeah as you said, the lynch was stll pretty open, and one vote ties aren't really that big of a deal. Now that its a two vote tie, now is a point where it makes more sense to be all 'i need to commit a vote to one of the leading options'.

 

Edit: bah i have a problem. Theres self preservation telling me to break the 3 way tie. But then. I dont know between drake and stick. Both give me a ehhh feeling about them. But. I dunno. I really dont. Im not definite enough on either to want to commit one over the other... but... baaaaaaahhh i dont wanna die what do i do haaalp xD

Edited July 17, 2019 by Burnt Spaghetti

[DrakeMarshall]

Well, I've waited to see what would happen now that Stick is on the spot with more votes, and I guess I'm not really getting the feeling that the Stick lynch is going to flip red. So, I'm in a spot where I don't necessarily support any of the current lynch candidates. I am feeling a bit directionless with the vote and I am sensing I might not be the only one. You will have to forgive me for suggesting we take things in a new direction.

Alvron, I know you always kind of hold your cards close and make it difficult to read you, but my gut says the options on the table are all bad and somebody like you on the sidelines is probably the right choice.

Yes, this does considerably increase the probability of my being lynched. I'll leave that up to you guys to deal with. Needless to say, I don't think you should lynch me.

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

I don’t really agree with any of the lynch options currently available, so my vote once again goes to Drake . I’ve had a bad feeling about you for a while now, since your vote on Elandera. You also kinda disagreed with the elims’ choice of actions which I can see as good distancing. You publicly requested for a bird, which isn’t something a vanilla elim would mind doing. 

Unless nothing changes till rollover, I think my vote stays. I don’t know where I stand with regards to Burnt, though I think Burnt and Aman being E/E is plausible, given her defense for Aman last cycle, even though he’s inactive. 

• Are you implying I am evil because I lynched a villager? I'm a bit more concerned by the lack of serious voting on the first day.
• I can confirm that this is probably something I would do to distance the eliminator team. However, it is also something I would do as a villager trying to make sense of what the eliminators are doing. Regardless, I have reasons* to change my mind about the eliminators making the wrong call.
• Yep, I publicly requested a bird. Your point here seems to be that this is something an eliminator hypothetically might do, not that it is something a villager would be any less likely to do, which imo is a poor criteria for choosing suspects.

1 hour ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Hmmmmmmm okay so reading through some more Striker has actually voiced suspicions of Drake so maybe my theory about them isn't correct or maybe it's distancing. It looks like currently the vote is tied for 2 and 2 on stick and burnt. A vote on striker might not tell me as much right now as a vote on Drake if I think they have enough interactions to pull from since Drake already has 1 vote on him. Okay so strike the vote on striker for now lol. Gonna vote Drake and go back and do more analysis on him. 

• You spent most of your post explaining why you were voting on Striker than switched to me, so I'm not really sure what your case here is.
• Although, I can get behind the idea that Striker and myself are probably the same alignment. Because Striker is currently my strongest village read.

 

This lynch feels weird. I'd say the elims are inactive but they were obviously active enough to sabotage two ship parts. I'm going to think about this more in the morning, assuming I'm still in the game.

 

*I ran some numbers. I was kind of curious what the best choice of wincon for the elims actually was. Due to the nature of the conclusion I don't think there's any danger in sharing it with the thread.

• Sabotage: The game starts with 8 parts to sabotage. It would seem that the eliminators can sabotage 2 parts per cycle, and I'm sincerely hoping the village can repair at least one otherwise I don't think the game is balanced. Assuming no engineers on either side were killed, the eliminators would sabotage every part in 8 cycles. Since the eliminators are typically forgoing their kill in favor of sabotage, the lynch is the only mechanism that is likely to remove engineers of either alignment. On average the lynch probably hinders both sides roughly evenly and it still takes about 8 cycles, but the time it takes is highly variable depending on if and when engineers are lynched.
• Hospitalization: There are 17 living players. Almost certainly 3-4 eliminators, leaving 13-14 villagers to dismiss or hospitalize. Factors:
  • The eliminators still likely have an engineer, who could very likely squeeze two extra kills from sabotaging the biology lab and brig. This can be considered as a flat -2 to the number of hospitalizations the eliminators need to carry out.
  • Doctors: Those who visit the hospital lose the ability to speak, vote, or count towards parity, making it not particularly viable for large numbers to visit the hospital. The doctor will be the one visiting the hospital repeatedly, so anyone who wants to cover for the doctor must also visit repeatedly, and if any of those people are killed later they cannot be replaced by other players willing to cover for the doctor. So, maybe there are 5 volunteers to cover for the doctor, maybe 3 of them are on the ball and persistent enough to give up all other ability to influence the game every single cycle the doctor is doing their thing. Even assuming the eliminators just randomly attack the group of people visiting the hospital, the doctor is more likely than not killed after 3 cycles of this. Which goes to say, even assuming a pretty dedicated effort to conceal the doctor, we can't expect them to heal more than 3 players. Probably not more than 1 village!doctor, so flat +3 to the number of hospitalizations the eliminators need to carry out.
  • Lynch: I've read before that the lynch is roughly 30% accurate, and that statistic sounds reasonable.
  • In conclusion, 13-14 players to hospitalize, 3 extra lives saved and 2 extra lives taken taking it to 14-15, 1 attack and 0.7 villagers lynched per cycle. If 4 eliminators: 14 / 1.7 = about 8 cycles to win by hospitalization. If 3 eliminators: 15 / 1.7 = about 9 cycles to win by hospitalization.

In conclusion, they're actually really close. If it's a 4 eliminator team, the two options are effectively equally good, but sabotage is more of a wildcard since it depends so much more on a single role and whether those players survive / are active. If it's a 3 eliminator team, then sabotage is slightly faster, and I was wrong about hospitalization being a better choice (although, it might be a safer choice, since it isn't contingent on one member of the team not dying).

[Burnt Spaghetti]

*lots of internal screaming*

Dillema dillema.

 

What to do.

 

Vote on drake, save myself?

But his posts are useful. A talkative player in a quiet mix of players.

 

Bring the tie on stick back?

Bring the tie back via someone else like ax?

One thing that interest me. People arent really defending each other.  Makes me think we're all villagers. And that elims are smiling from the shadows.

 

I need more time to look at the talky.

Need more time to judge stick. Want more time to judge drake

Blargh.

ax's bf

Nothing against you. You already have a vote.

Edited July 17, 2019 by Burnt Spaghetti
REEEEEEE mobile formating hmph

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Would it be possible for a villager engineer to have read my post last cycle or just to have thought to themselves that the brig is more potentially dangerous to leave available then it is good? I'm not saying i'm positive that would be true but I'm curious to the possibility that a village engineer would sabotage the brig to avoid the elims getting a hospitalization. I find it hard to believe that Rand would give the elims an engineer when there are only 17 players to begin with and the elims can already sabotage. I'm not ruling it out, just curious if a village engineer would've done it for some reason.

Without an elim engineer, the sabotage win condition would take seven more cycles even if no village engineer ever bothered to fix anything, extended significantly if engineers do their job and repair things. Even though the death toll in this game is lower than usual, that's quite a long time for an MR, and would make the hospitalisation win con much easier for the elims to achieve.

1 hour ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

opinions on creating ties via voting on someone other than the two main candidates:

Honestly i like two way ties. I dont like 3+ ties though. 3 or more is too many. But two is a simple coin flip, its easy for people to pick a side and then its interesting to see if people will try break that tie to defend one of the people there or not. 

So yeah c1 i was happy to leave it as aman vs elandera, a two way tie. Didnt want to make it a three way, also didnt have anyone else id really bother adding to the mix. Id put xino up to give aman a chance. Elandera being put up achieved the same thing. (I will be so upset if aman turns up and is evil after all this xD )

This cycle, i assume you're refering to me questioning strikers vote when he voted on stick. At the point there were only two votes in play, so didnt feel like it was a point where you had to commit to one or the other, so i was curious as to why then vote for stick, when he already said he frustrated that we were the options put up.  Why not add another option if you didnt like the ones presented- there was plenty of time left. So yeah as you said, the lynch was stll pretty open, and one vote ties aren't really that big of a deal. Now that its a two vote tie, now is a point where it makes more sense to be all 'i need to commit a vote to one of the leading options'.

Supporting a lynch on a minimal active versus an inactive makes sense. I was more wondering about your opinion on the outcome of Aman vs. Elandera, whether you would prefer an inactive die over an active you didn't have any particular suspicion of. Equally happy to the point of nonintervention is certainly a view you can have.

Ironically, we're now at a three way tie. At this point, it's kind of late to choose sides and we probably won't see any dramatic vote shifts. A 1/3 chance of death is still within the point where an elim might want to defend a teammate up for the lynch, so if we had gotten to this point earlier we still could have seen tie-breaking defences. At the very least, I think creating a three way tie is a valid choice when faced with two lynches that one disagrees with. That does apply more to Striker this cycle than you last cycle, though it depends somewhat on when you were around last cycle e.g. ~3 hours before rollover when I voted for Elandera as opposed to after Stick voted for Drake.

And it looks like I'm out of time to make a reasoned decision. I'll have to leave it here.

[Burnt Spaghetti]

@MrakeDarshall may the odds be ever in our favor

[DeTess]

And this cycle is over!

[DrakeMarshall]

I was considering breaking the tie, but nah. Thank you Burnt.

Edit: ninja’d

Edited July 17, 2019 by MrakeDarshall

[DeTess]

Unfortunately for the foreman, things didn’t quiet down after Elandera’s arrest. Quite the opposite in fact, with the saboteurs stepping up their campaign of destruction the workers had become more paranoid, and it was well before lunch that she got called in to mediate another big dispute before it turned into an all-out brawl.

“Foreman, Third of Sunset was a pretty vocal part of the incident of yesterday, some of us think that’s…” “Quill’s odd creatures have been seen ranging through the airship where they don’t belong, he could have easily trained them to…” “Foreman!” “Foreman!”

“Ms. Cole, if you’ve got a moment, our investigation so far has brought some interesting facts to life.” The calm voice nevertheless cut easily through the workers’ shouts. Unnoticed by all, a man in a civilian suit had walked up to the group and was now brandishing a badge. “It has come to our attention that mr. Thousantoo has something of a criminal record. We’d like to take him in for questioning.”

The foreman nodded at the officer, then turned her attention back to the workers. “Do any of you have anything credible to contribute to his investigation?”

“Something that does not have anything to do with mr. Quill’s monkeys, or whatever they are.” She interjected before anyone could speak. The group remained silent. “Allright officer, mr. Thousantoo is all yours.”
***
Mika was sitting in the ship’s laboratory, waiting for his coat to be returned. One of the ship’s biologists had asked if they could borrow it, as he’d been pretty close to a saboteur and they hoped to find some clue as to their identities. Mika was fine with that. After the incident with the brig, the guards had been reassigned to keep an eye on the various volatile substances in and around the ship, and guarding the various chemicals in the lab seemed to him to be the safest posting by far.

The lab itself was a miracle of modern size, containing in its small space everything an aspiring biologist or chemist would need to do their work. Mika glanced idly over the glass bottles with arcane labels and large warnings, the various machines for heating, diluting and observing the various samples, the panicked albatross flying into the room…
 
Quiet work quickly turned into panicked chaos as more birds filled the room, trashing sensitive equipment and spilling various chemicals everywhere. Shouts of “get them out!” “Open a window” and “AAAAH, my eyes!” filled the room.

Mika sighed as he got up to help the researchers. “This was supposed to have been a quiet and dignified posting.” he muttered as he opened the nearest window and started shooing the birds out.

***

Vote count

Ax's boyfriend(2): Lopen, burnt

Drake(2): stick, BrightnessRadiant

Burnt(2): Araris, devotary

Alvron(1): Drake

stick(1): strikerEZ

 

Ax was fired. He was an NITC messenger

Brightness radiant was hospitalized. She is a biologist

The aviary was sabotaged

The laboratory was sabotaged

Araris Valerian is visiting the hospital this cycle.

A message was left on the notice board in the crew mess:

 

Quote

I swear I saw Second of the Sky watching me through a window yesterday, but when I went out and checked, there was no one in sight. Anyone else noticed the way he walks? Super creepy.
P.S. Second of the Sky, if you see this, please leave me alone!

Airship parts:

Spoiler

1. crew mess
2. aviar holding area (sabotaged)
3. bridge(sabotaged)
4. communications hut
5. ship’s laboratory (sabotaged)
6. brig(sabotaged)
7. starboard engine
8. port engine
9. sky crane
10. gas bag (sabotaged)
     

player list

Spoiler

1. Xinoehp512
2. Lumgol Eight Thousand Five Hundred and Twenty-Ninth of the Just a Smidge After Twilight... or, I guess, Twi for short
3. StrikerEZ
4. BrightnessRadiant, biologist - Hospitalized
5. Ventyl
6. Elandera NITC worker.
7. Amanuensis as Saluden Leiken, a Willshaper Worldhopper from Roshar.
8. Ax's boyfriend as Arr K. Thousantoo, an ancient worldhopper who recently recovered from his incident with the constabulary. NITC Messenger
9. MrakeDarshall as Quill, a hemalurgist by trade who was marooned on First of the Sun quite some time ago, and has survived mainly by virtue of his... Er... "pets"
10. Devotary of spontaneity as Auseor, a merchant working with a group of salvagers.
11. Mark
12. Shanerockes
13. _stick_
14. TheMightyLopen
15. Alvron as Second of the Sky
16. Araris Valerian as fourth of the moon
17. Burnt spaghetti as 3rd of Sunset

This cycle ends Friday 19th of July, 12:00 (noon) Amsterdam time.

Edited July 17, 2019 by Randuir

[Burnt Spaghetti]

(..... squawk, squawk, squawk squawk)

DRAKE!!!! WE SURVIVED WE SURVIVED AAAAAH I COULD HUG YOU RIGHT NOW THANK YOU FOR NOT BREAKING THE TIE YOU COULDA GUARANTEED SAFETY BUT YOU DIDNT THANK YOU

I am so unbelievably relieved right now. We are crazy. Insane. Nutcases. Idk. Wow. We survived that. Wow.

 

Wow

Okay

So.

Two more sabotages. 

Yikes. Could be a short game if we dont kill their engineer soon. Half of the ship taken out... *hums 'O Death* (idk its ominous and this feels ominous dont read into it please)

I wonder if brightness has any useful results from her action. I guess thatll probably be a thing shed be talking about to araris this cycle

Hm. Also wonder if she was the only biologost or not.

 

And the birds. So. Someone with a fancy birb is guaranteed to be evil right now then. If you get pms. Be wary. They could be good but 1 in 3ish chance theyre evil (i say ish cause rng could easily give another to an elim which would be scary) Other than a trappers attack not going through the other birds will be near impossible to detect, cause everything that could track someone has been taken out now.

[Stick.]

Not good. The elims are winning fast. Nothing has been repaired, which is super concerning. 

Hmm I don’t know if I should consider Drake and Burnt to be very very village given the lynch tie and all, or to consider them being in cahoots as elims. 

I can tell you right off the bat that I luckily received an Aviar upon the holding area being sabotaged, so narrowing the player list down to one player with a certain ability with a certain bird would be doable for me now, if a player shows signs of having used such abilities. 

1 hour ago, Randuir said:

I swear I saw Second of the Sky watching me through a window yesterday, but when I went out and checked, there was no one in sight. Anyone else noticed the way he walks? Super creepy.
P.S. Second of the Sky, if you see this, please leave me alone!

@Alvron

Edited July 17, 2019 by _Stick_

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Hey, I think I’m going to need a pinch hitter for this, because I’m going to be really busy and don’t have the time to reread through this thread, and I’d rather have let the village have an active player. @Randuir

[DeTess]

Just now, Ventyl said:

Hey, I think I’m going to need a pinch hitter for this, because I’m going to be really busy and don’t have the time to reread through this thread, and I’d rather have let the village have an active player. @Randuir

I haven't got any pinch-hitters currently lined up, but I'll see what I can do. I can't make any promises though.

[Amanuensis]

I'm alive. Going to start reading from D1 now.

[StrikerEZ]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm alive. Going to start reading from D1 now.

I’m glad you’re alive. Sorry for trying to get you lynched D1.

I don’t like that the lynch always seems to quickly shift around once I’m gone. I don’t know if I would’ve kept my vote on Stick I I’d been around during rollover, but I definitely don’t like how quickly the votes settled onto the three of Burnt, Drake, and Ark. I really don’t think that the lynch on him was justified (didn’t they only post stuff about not being able to spend much time on the game, or did they say that in the LG?). I feel like if Burnt and Drake were both elims, they definitely would’ve got more votes on Ark, guaranteeing a villager lynch instead of a guaranteed elim lynch. If either of them are elims, I’m leaning more towards Burnt because she was the one who tied up the lynch for Ark. 

Despite that, I feel like these lynches have been relatively quiet. I feel like there’d be more people voting if we had elims potentially being lynched, though they could be avoiding doing that to make us think the people being voted on aren’t elims....

[DrakeMarshall]

Woot I’m alive.

Fun fact: since the game ends when the elims outnumber the village, my calculations from last cycle are wrong. If the assumptions hold then my original guess that hospitalization is faster is correct.

EXCEPT that the assumptions don’t hold. The village engineers don’t appear to be active, and that’s a major part of the village balance. Meaning that sabotage is going to end the game in two cycles.

This is concerning.

[Amanuensis]

Okay. I think I'm caught up, but honestly still need time to process everything, and I would probably benefit from a 2nd read through of the last two days events when I'm less physically and mentally exhausted.

From what I understand, the elims are 3 cycles from winning already. Unless our village Engineers succeed in reparing a ship part, our only hope is to get all 3 of our lynches right. Glancing quickly at the player list, I figure the elims are among this group:

1. Mrake 
2. Devotary
3. Mark
4. Stick
5. Lopen
6. Alvron
7. Araris
8. Burnt

Mrake and Burnt look semi good for the tie vote yesterday, since I would expect teammates to save one of them if they were evil. However, my current theory is Alvron and Burnt are teammates, with Alvron encouraging Burnt to vote for a 3rd person (Ax) to increase the likelihood of her survival without one of her allies getting dragged down with her. I have other reasons for suspecting Burnt, so if it seems like I'm jumping to a conclusion, that's why. I'll explain the reasoning for my Burnt suspicions at a later time, when I'm better rested / have access to my computer again.

My gut is screaming Mark is evil but I'm trying to reign that in until I can rationalize why. I cant remember if he posted more than his initial d1 post tho, which may be a factor in where I lean on him.

Lopen's expression of suspicion on Burnt could be distancing, and I wouldn't be surprised if Burnt stacked her vote on top of Lopen's intentionally, since most people would read it as very unlikely for a pair of elims to vote on the same player without any villagers for cover.

Devotary and Araris are mostly on that list because neither have done anything remarkably village. Alvron too, really, but him even less so, imo.

Stick is simultaneously giving me vibes from the last game we were evil together, and vibes that I wouldn't expect to come from her as an elim. I'll look into this more later this turn.

The rest of us are probably okay.

Edited July 17, 2019 by Amanuensis

[shanerockes]

I am going to say that I received a bird from the Aviar and it isn't useful in any way. I can't use any special actions with it. I don't have any reads on anyone, merely because I am not that good at it but I'm just gonna put a random vote onto Burnt. 

[Lumgol]

I requested an aviar and I got ... an "elephant bird" that apparently does nothing

Edited July 17, 2019 by Lumgol

[TheMightyLopen]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Okay. I think I'm caught up, but honestly still need time to process everything, and I would probably benefit from a 2nd read through of the last two days events when I'm less physically and mentally exhausted.

From what I understand, the elims are 3 cycles from winning already. Unless our village Engineers succeed in reparing a ship part, our only hope is to get all 3 of our lynches right. Glancing quickly at the player list, I figure the elims are among this group:

1. Mrake 
2. Devotary
3. Mark
4. Stick
5. Lopen
6. Alvron
7. Araris
8. Burnt

Mrake and Burnt look semi good for the tie vote yesterday, since I would expect teammates to save one of them if they were evil. However, my current theory is Alvron and Burnt are teammates, with Alvron encouraging Burnt to vote for a 3rd person (Ax) to increase the likelihood of her survival without one of her allies getting dragged down with her. I have other reasons for suspecting Burnt, so if it seems like I'm jumping to a conclusion, that's why. I'll explain the reasoning for my Burnt suspicions at a later time, when I'm better rested / have access to my computer again.

My gut is screaming Mark is evil but I'm trying to reign that in until I can rationalize why. I cant remember if he posted more than his initial d1 post tho, which may be a factor in where I lean on him.

Lopen's expression of suspicion on Burnt could be distancing, and I wouldn't be surprised if Burnt stacked her vote on top of Lopen's intentionally, since most people would read it as very unlikely for a pair of elims to vote on the same player without any villagers for cover.

Devotary and Araris are mostly on that list because neither have done anything remarkably village. Alvron too, really, but him even less so, imo.

Stick is simultaneously giving me vibes from the last game we were evil together, and vibes that I wouldn't expect to come from her as an elim. I'll look into this more later this turn.

The rest of us are probably okay.

I feel pretty similar to this. I am still leaning village on Mrake and Stick, though I'm not confident about that. For some reason I felt the same way about Mark, but when I looked back at his one post(he hasn't posted since then), I couldn't figure out why. So at this point I'd narrow my pool of who I'd vote for to Devotary, Alvron, Mark, Araris, and Burnt. I'm hoping Mark will show up this Cycle so we can get some more of his thoughts. Since Araris is visiting the Hospital, I wouldn't mind waiting until he has the chance to defend himself before thinking about going after him.

Apologies to Ax. I didn't actually think he'd get lynched, but I knew it was possible with how low the votes were.

Anyways, I just got off work, and I'm gonna be busy pretty much the rest of the day, so I probably won't be able to post again until 4 or 5 hours from now.

[Burnt Spaghetti]

AMANS HERE YAY IT WAS ALL WORTH IT

aaaand he's sus of me of course he is xD

 

0% trust, 50% neutral 100% do not trust

 

1. Xinoehp512 - 50% inactive

2. Lumgol - 50% inactive

3. StrikerEZ - 45%

4. BrightnessRadiant - 35% a biologist hurt in the sabotage. Could be a wgg but for now, i think shes good

5. Ventyl - 50% no read - requested a pinch hitter

6. Amanuensis - 45% you're here you're here YAY!!!

7. MrakeDarshall - 25% id trust you with my life right now. You could've secured your safety and you didn't. And no one came to help ensure your safety either. I mean i guess if you were elim there's the argument that if you were the elims roleless then they could afford to lose you and then this would be a clever ploy to make us trust you. Please let that not be the case

8. Devotary of spontaneity - 40% honestly i dunno. That's gut from reading over your stuff.

9. Mark - 50%  no read

10. Shanerockes - 50% no read

11. _stick_ -  50%  i dont know anymore

12. TheMightyLopen - 50%

13. Alvron - 50%  the shadow lurker i never trust. Havent heard much from him in thread, but he expressed a reason for that. But still active enough to put in actions.

14. Araris Valerian - 30%  ive gotten good vibes from his posts. And his hospital visit bodes well imo

15. Burnt spaghetti  - alright. So. Ive spent a lot of time just defending myself. Ive not voted based on suspicions, only on inactives, ive not argued on any suspicions, ive made general comments on implications like the sabotages or roles. Ive done nothing an elim couldnt do, the only thing ive committed to was defending aman and making sure he had a chance to survive and then justifying that for a cycle which is why i was up for lynch in the first place. I claimed to have a useless bird last cycle. And if anyone's comparing how i play to previous games (which the last was just over 2 years ago btw), ive been weirdly active and ive been voting each cycle so far which is a first. some of my posts have been inconsistent and my playing style is inconsistent with previous games imo. Though im also more used to living i pms, not thread. But that's beside the point. There's no one im suspicious enough of to lynch. And that's a problem. All i got is crazy conspiracy theories that i dont personally believe. Basically i dont blame yall for being suspicious of me.

Like what if drake and stick were both evil- they were after each other last cycle. Drake removed his vote off stick near the end, saving her from the lynch. If in the instance they are both evil is real, then that would imply stick was the one with a move valuable role that was better to save.

Its a theory. I dont know anymore. I really dont know.

 

Other thing to keep in mind. There was no vote randomness. Therefore none of the voters was the blinded navigator, someone I personally believe would be a villager and someone still active enough to put in actions.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

13 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Not good. The elims are winning fast. Nothing has been repaired, which is super concerning. 

Hmm I don’t know if I should consider Drake and Burnt to be very very village given the lynch tie and all, or to consider them being in cahoots as elims. 

I can tell you right off the bat that I luckily received an Aviar upon the holding area being sabotaged, so narrowing the player list down to one player with a certain ability with a certain bird would be doable for me now, if a player shows signs of having used such abilities. 

@Alvron

It would have been very easy for a Drake/Burnt team to have gotten a lynch off on Stick, or at the very least get a 4 way tie including Stick and Ax rather than committing to a lynch giving them a 2/3 chance of elim death. Taking that risk in the hopes of lynching Ax C2 of what could be a very long game is an incredibly dangerous strategy, especially if one of them is an engineer. One of Drake or Burnt being evil and risky the 1/3 chance of death seems more reasonable, though still a gamble for an elim engineer. 

6 hours ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Woot I’m alive.

Fun fact: since the game ends when the elims outnumber the village, my calculations from last cycle are wrong. If the assumptions hold then my original guess that hospitalization is faster is correct.

EXCEPT that the assumptions don’t hold. The village engineers don’t appear to be active, and that’s a major part of the village balance. Meaning that sabotage is going to end the game in two cycles.

This is concerning.

There are five airship parts still intact, so it would take at least three cycles of sabotage to take down the ship. It's also possible that we had one active engineer who partially fixed either the bridge or the brig last cycle. @Randuir, if the last airship part is sabotaged in the same cycle a previously sabotaged part is fully repaired, does the game end?

2 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

 

1. BrightnessRadiant - 35% a biologist hurt in the sabotage. Could be a wgg but for now, i think shes good

2. MrakeDarshall - 25% id trust you with my life right now. You could've secured your safety and you didn't. And no one came to help ensure your safety either. I mean i guess if you were elim there's the argument that if you were the elims roleless then they could afford to lose you and then this would be a clever ploy to make us trust you. Please let that not be the case

3. Araris Valerian - 30%  ive gotten good vibes from his posts. And his hospital visit bodes well imo

4. Burnt spaghetti  - alright. So. Ive spent a lot of time just defending myself. Ive not voted based on suspicions, only on inactives, ive not argued on any suspicions, ive made general comments on implications like the sabotages or roles. Ive done nothing an elim couldnt do, the only thing ive committed to was defending aman and making sure he had a chance to survive and then justifying that for a cycle which is why i was up for lynch in the first place. I claimed to have a useless bird last cycle. And if anyone's comparing how i play to previous games (which the last was just over 2 years ago btw), ive been weirdly active and ive been voting each cycle so far which is a first. some of my posts have been inconsistent and my playing style is inconsistent with previous games imo. Though im also more used to living i pms, not thread. But that's beside the point. There's no one im suspicious enough of to lynch. And that's a problem. All i got is crazy conspiracy theories that i dont personally believe. Basically i dont blame yall for being suspicious of me.

Like what if drake and stick were both evil- they were after each other last cycle. Drake removed his vote off stick near the end, saving her from the lynch. If in the instance they are both evil is real, then that would imply stick was the one with a move valuable role that was better to save.

BR being evil would mean the elims shut down a powerful role indefinitely and purposefully tried to get her hospitalised with a decently high chance of success. Araris/BR doctor/biologist team requires the elims to put two members out of commission for a cycle, making double sabotage/sabotage + attack only feasible with a four member elim team with at least three roles. This would also require the elims to do something about Araris being exposed as a potential doctor and the lab potentially being rebuilt. Even if the elims do have a doctor and a biologist and Araris is the doctor, there's no guarantee that BR would be the one hospitalised. BR being evil with village Araris means the elims were okay with letting a teammate sit in the hospital for an indeterminate number of cycles. It's probably best to wait a cycle and see if BR returns to health, especially as the possibility that one or both hospital denizens are evil is far from a a likelihood.

Drake definitely could have secured his safety by voting for you, or Ark at the last second. Voting for you instead of Alvron may well have caused you to make a retaliatory vote to stay alive, and a hammer on Ark would be a lot more suspicious than risking death by keeping a vote on Alvron. The only people who could have helped Drake are me and you, and we kind of did by not voting for Drake. 

[Alvron]

16 hours ago, Randuir said:

I swear I saw Second of the Sky watching me through a window yesterday, but when I went out and checked, there was no one in sight. Anyone else noticed the way he walks? Super creepy.
P.S. Second of the Sky, if you see this, please leave me alone!

I'm fairly certain this is Burnt.  Of all the players Burnt is the only one to constantly express something close to fear whenever we play together.  In case your wondering Burnt, I haven't forgotten about you attacking me in LG24.

15 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

DRAKE!!!! WE SURVIVED WE SURVIVED AAAAAH I COULD HUG YOU RIGHT NOW THANK YOU FOR NOT BREAKING THE TIE YOU COULDA GUARANTEED SAFETY BUT YOU DIDNT THANK YOU

I am so unbelievably relieved right now. We are crazy. Insane. Nutcases. Idk. Wow. We survived that. Wow.

Exhilarating isn't it.  The heart beating fast, the constant refreshing of the page for rollover, the long, long wait to see if you lived or died.  Now you know why I enjoy ties and being tied in the lynch.  

15 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

@Alvron

@_Stick_ 

10 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm alive. Going to start reading from D1 now.

Welcome back to the land of the living.

8 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

However, my current theory is Alvron and Burnt are teammates, with Alvron encouraging Burnt to vote for a 3rd person (Ax) to increase the likelihood of her survival without one of her allies getting dragged down with her. I have other reasons for suspecting Burnt, so if it seems like I'm jumping to a conclusion, that's why.

I would so love for this to be true.  Burnt is one of the very few I really, really want to be evil with but haven't.


I've just finished a 16 hour shift and would really like some sleep before I head off to work again tonight.  I likely won't be on again until about 12 hours before rollover but until then.  I have an idea about the Doctor and how to hide them but in my sleep addled state I'm sure I'm missing something.

Several of us should visit the Hospital randomly or semi randomly.  The Doctor will then be partly hidden and able to heal.  They won't be able to heal every time and the elims will be able to slowly work out who they are but hopefully by then we would've found a couple of them or at least delayed them winning enough to give us a fighting chance.  This will hopefully also force the elim Engineer to not sabotage for a couple of cycles to visit the hospital again giving us more time to find them.

And with that, I'm going to sleep before my face hits the keyboard.

[Burnt Spaghetti]

1 hour ago, Alvron said:

I'm fairly certain this is Burnt.  Of all the players Burnt is the only one to constantly express something close to fear whenever we play together.  In case your wondering Burnt, I haven't forgotten about you attacking me in LG24.

--

Exhilarating isn't it.  The heart beating fast, the constant refreshing of the page for rollover, the long, long wait to see if you lived or died.  Now you know why I enjoy ties and being tied in the lynch.  

--

I would so love for this to be true.  Burnt is one of the very few I really, really want to be evil with but haven't.
 

.... uh oh. Of course you remember...  eheheh......

That message wasnt me heh.  It sounds to sane too be me you of all people should know what i sound like when nervous 

--

Heheh i guess so! Its a rush for sure.

---

Seconded. Y'all better be terrified the day that happens