Long Game 34: Allomancer

[Yitzi2]

1 minute ago, Jondesu said:

That's…a very good question.  The list of options is shortening, so I'm going to go down the player list (in the order they're listed) and see what we know:

Hemalurgic_Headshot: Totally off my radar so far.  I know he's posted, but I don't really have any particular read on him.

The Flash: Just about confirmed village, though there's still the really paranoid theory that he's Elim Mistborn and this attack was a WGG.  Very unlikely, though.

Manukos: Also has been mostly off my radar

Yitzi: Active, no real strong indications of alignment, but calling for hazekillers could be an Elim move to discover more roles, although it's also useful for the village.

cloudjumper: Has been suspected by a few people so far.  I haven't seen anything specific that I latched onto, but I haven't been able to give this game my full attention.

Jondesu: Absolutely village

DroughtBringer: Completely inactive, but said in the other game he had a busy time at school. @DroughtBringer, any chance you can return to this game?

Elenion: Always suspicious to me as I've said in many games, but I try not to let that make me jump to conclusions.  If I get a chance, I want to analyze some of his posts, but he could certainly be an Elim, although if he is, he's doing a good job at not making himself too suspicious (I think he's had a few votes here and there but has never been in real danger).

Araris Valerian: The Ghost of SE Present.  Seriously, this guy could be anything.  I'd almost support lynching him simply for being so hard to read, but I definitely have nothing to go on with him.

Metacognition: One of my top suspicions.  He's been getting onto Flash a lot who's confirmed now to be village, although that's a risky move if he's an Elim, since it draws attention now.  In fact, it makes me wonder if the Elims hit Flash partially to make those who were attacking him in the thread seem more suspicious, though they also had plenty of other reasons to want him gone.  I dunno, without much in the way of metals (he can't have been passed much more I would assume, though hopefully I'm wrong) Flash won't be much of a danger. Still, would probably be okay with lynching Meta.

Cluny: Drew suspicion from me and others early for a mistake, but I have decided that was not alignment-indicative.  Still has been setting off my Elim-dar, on occasion, so would also support his lynch.

Sart: Another person who often ends up being a ghost.  Hard to get a read on, and hasn't posted that much (typical for him), but I'll see if I can analyze his posts.

 

With 21 players starting the game, we should have 4-5 Elims, right?  That means we have 3-4 left of the above list. I'm thinking one is probably mostly or completely inactive, so Manukos and Drought are good possibilities, and then I would bet the remaining 2-3 are among HH, Yitzi, cloudjumper, Len, Araris, Meta, Cluny, or Sart (I know, I'm just summarizing what I posted above).  Probably the most suspicious of…Meta, Cluny, and Len.

I did hazekill.  I targeted…Ecth. –_–

Yeah, didn't work out so well of course.  It failed because he didn't take any actions, which makes sense now that we know he was a Metallurgist, and apparently I was joined in my suspicion of him by our Coinshot, so that's mostly a moot point now.  I guess that means I just role-claimed too… oh well.

The point of announcing hazekills is that anyone who was hazekilled last night was not the one to send in the elim kill.  So yeah, the fact that you targeted Ecth doesn't really give us any info.

[Jondesu he/him]

15 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

The point of announcing hazekills is that anyone who was hazekilled last night was not the one to send in the elim kill.  So yeah, the fact that you targeted Ecth doesn't really give us any info.

I know, hence the little emoji.  I'm just a little disappointed in my wasted effort.  I'll probably try for someone else tonight.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

5 hours ago, Jondesu said:

Wow. That was...unexpected. Glad you had the pewter, Flash, but Ecth? The writeup makes it sound like he was a Coinshot kill, while Flash was attacked by the Elims. Is that something we can accurately decipher from the writeup, @Drake Marshall?

If I am going to follow the same general approach as Seonid, then the particular details in the write-up are not to be wholly trusted.

And I believe I should follow that approach, because this is Seonid's game.

So I will not confirm or deny your supposition.

[Yitzi2]

5 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

If I am going to follow the same general approach as Seonid, then the particular details in the write-up are not to be wholly trusted.

And I believe I should follow that approach, because this is Seonid's game.

So I will not confirm or deny your supposition.

All the writeup would really tell us, if it did, would be that Barry thought that the people who tried to kill him were the Venture spies.  Which we can probably safely assume anyway.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Ok so the roles we should have left- at least two more elims, probably more. One of them is probably some sort of misting. We still have a thief/thieves out there. We may or may not have another courier or a metallurgist. 

Ok I ordered a metal last night. It got delivered. Would hazekilling ecthelion have stopped the delivery of metals? 

Also IM FINALLY FREE FROM SCHOOL! AT LAST . Yay!

Edited June 12, 2017 by The Flash

[Sparkrunner he/him]

Or his elim teammates passed him pewter, guarunteeing a perfect WGG.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Just now, Cluny the Scourge said:

Or his elim teammates passed him pewter, guarunteeing a perfect WGG.

What is a WGG? 

[cloudjumper he/him]

3 minutes ago, Cluny the Scourge said:

Or his elim teammates passed him pewter, guarunteeing a perfect WGG.

Honestly I doubt that the Elims would waste a night kill and a pewter vial just to clear Flash. If Flash was really a mistborn Elim, then the Elims would have two night kills and Flash probably wouldn't even have claimed mistborn at all.

[Yitzi2]

3 minutes ago, Cluny the Scourge said:

Or his elim teammates passed him pewter, guarunteeing a perfect WGG.

If Barry was an elim (and I don't think he is), he could easily have gotten the pewter from someone who thought he was village, and then told his teammates that he had it.

2 minutes ago, The Flash said:

What is a WGG? 

When an elim kill targets an elim but is prevented in some way, in order to make him seem less suspicious.

[Steeldancer he/him]

2 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

If Barry was an elim (and I don't think he is), he could easily have gotten the pewter from someone who thought he was village, and then told his teammates that he had it.

When an elim kill targets an elim but is prevented in some way, in order to make him seem less suspicious.

Ah ok that makes sense. And I have no idea who gave me the pewter. In fact after burning it I thought "oh gosh what if the elims are working with the metallurgists and they sent me a POISONED vial????" And does a successful hazekill reveal yourself to the thread? Like is it announced that you are "injured?" 

[Yitzi2]

Just now, The Flash said:

Ah ok that makes sense. And I have no idea who gave me the pewter. In fact after burning it I thought "oh gosh what if the elims are working with the metallurgists and they sent me a POISONED vial????" And does a successful hazekill reveal yourself to the thread? Like is it announced that you are "injured?" 

I don't think the injury was announced.

Also, for future reference, you might not want to mention how many vials you had, as if the elims think it was the last one when you really have another, it can lead them to waste another kill, and if they think you have another when you're out it could buy you more time.  Unless you are being deliberately deceptive about the matter...

[Jondesu he/him]

19 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Ok I ordered a metal last night. It got delivered. Would hazekilling ecthelion have stopped the delivery of metals? 

No, it wouldn't. That was clarified before I believe. It's not an Allomantic action, which is what Hazekillers stop.

6 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Ah ok that makes sense. And I have no idea who gave me the pewter. In fact after burning it I thought "oh gosh what if the elims are working with the metallurgists and they sent me a POISONED vial????" And does a successful hazekill reveal yourself to the thread? Like is it announced that you are "injured?" 

Yes, it would have been announced had it been successful I believe.

[Seonid he/him]

24 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Ok so the roles we should have left- at least two more elims, probably more. One of them is probably some sort of misting. We still have a thief/thieves out there. We may or may not have another courier or a metallurgist. 

Ok I ordered a metal last night. It got delivered. Would hazekilling ecthelion have stopped the delivery of metals? 

Also IM FINALLY FREE FROM SCHOOL! AT LAST . Yay!

Hazkeillers cannot block the metallurgist dstributing metal. Only Captains can do that

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I doubt that hazekilling a metallurgist would block metal orders, since that is a passive ability. Rather, I suspect that hazekilling would prevent the metallurgist from poisoning a vial of metals during that cycle.

Apologies for my lack of presence last cycle, I have no excuse. I suppose my characters have become ghosts often enough that its rubbing off on my play style. For a while I was close to having the highest death rate on the Shard :D. Anyway, on to game relevant stuff.

I'm going to vote on Jondesu. During cycle one, he seemed reluctant to vote on PK, as if he knew that a villager was going to die and he didn't want to be in on it. Instead, he voted for Cluny, for making a minor edit to a post. The next cycle, he tried to pursue Cluny again until it was shown publicly how minor the edit was. Later that vote switched to Dalinar. Now, Dalinar had clarified that he was busy IRL and would be limited in his posting ability.

Quote

Dalinar, as I said before, Stick's poking of people asking them to post more is only beneficial, and is also pretty normal.  Why does that mean Stick must be Elim?

Quote

I sorta agree with Lopen with the vote on Stick. Calling on people to post more and suggesting they will be targeted is a pretty neutral but generally positive role to play. Sure, it benefits the village a little if I and Droughtbringer post more, but it's still an easy part to play.

Dalinar does justify his vote, and he relies on Lopen's argument presumably because he has limited web access. So why place a vote asking someone to justify a vote that they already justified, when they also said they will have limited access to the thread to respond to them? Seems pointless to me.

Recent events haven't changed my opinion, Jondesu voted on Flash after his reveal, but withdrew later when the claim was confirmed, and was less active for IRL reasons for a bit.

[Steeldancer he/him]

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I doubt that hazekilling a metallurgist would block metal orders, since that is a passive ability. Rather, I suspect that hazekilling would prevent the metallurgist from poisoning a vial of metals during that cycle.

Apologies for my lack of presence last cycle, I have no excuse. I suppose my characters have become ghosts often enough that its rubbing off on my play style. For a while I was close to having the highest death rate on the Shard :D. Anyway, on to game relevant stuff.

I'm going to vote on Jondesu. During cycle one, he seemed reluctant to vote on PK, as if he knew that a villager was going to die and he didn't want to be in on it. Instead, he voted for Cluny, for making a minor edit to a post. The next cycle, he tried to pursue Cluny again until it was shown publicly how minor the edit was. Later that vote switched to Dalinar. Now, Dalinar had clarified that he was busy IRL and would be limited in his posting ability.

Dalinar does justify his vote, and he relies on Lopen's argument presumably because he has limited web access. So why place a vote asking someone to justify a vote that they already justified, when they also said they will have limited access to the thread to respond to them? Seems pointless to me.

Recent events haven't changed my opinion, Jondesu voted on Flash after his reveal, but withdrew later when the claim was confirmed, and was less active for IRL reasons for a bit.

He appears! Araris, how are you so ghostly? Tell me your secret! 

[Jondesu he/him]

@Araris Valerian, I explained both those votes long ago. Sounds like you're doing what I did and missing stuff...

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I acknowledge that you have given explanation for those votes. That doesn't change that I find them suspicious. Also, it's not just your votes, but your other behavior like being reluctant to vote on PK without offering a reason you were convinced he was village. I don't know that I'm really looking for you to explain things any more. I'm suspicious, so I put it out there for others to consider and used a vote to back my talk with something solid.

[Jondesu he/him]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I acknowledge that you have given explanation for those votes. That doesn't change that I find them suspicious. Also, it's not just your votes, but your other behavior like being reluctant to vote on PK without offering a reason you were convinced he was village. I don't know that I'm really looking for you to explain things any more. I'm suspicious, so I put it out there for others to consider and used a vote to back my talk with something solid.

With PK, the whole situation just struck me as bizarre. We knew there was no way Orlok knew PK's role prior. Most people were assuming Orlok was either village or a really crafty Elim. It just all stunk to me, and the way the conversation was being driven towards the PK lynch (how many players voted for him?) made me really not want to join that bandwagon.

Edit: 13. 13 players voted for PK. I don't absolutely detest bandwagons overall, but I find them suspicious or just annoying most of the time. At first I was just trying to make sense of what happened, then once Orlok claimed as Captain I started to put together some theories, and currently my working theory on what happened N0 was that the Elims goofed. Someone probably thought someone else was sending in the order or something like that. Maybe it was a brilliant distraction technique, but I can't imagine it was better than killing randomly or killing someone who might implicate someone else (that's often what I argue for when I'm an Elim).

Basically, there was no reason for my vote to go on PK, and his lynch wasn't really going to give us any info, so while I knew it wasn't going to gain much traction without more information coming out, I offered what I thought was a more viable target. I was mistaken as was later pointed out, but at the time it seemed the smarter play, and I was pretty convinced that the Elims couldn't really have caused PK's situation.

Edited June 13, 2017 by Jondesu

[Elenion he/him]

I'm fairly sure that one of Araris, Jon, and Meta is evil, because I doubt Seonid would form an elim team that didn't have at least one more-experienced player on it. Backing that up is the non-kill N0, which I've theorized in that past was either for info deprivation or to give all players a chance to participate, both strategies that tend to be suggested by experienced players. The question is: who?

I'm leaning away from Meta, because he suspected Flash. You'd think that an elim who knew Flash was village would say they were reading village on him, to try to win his trust, but Meta did the exact opposite. That reads to me like he had no idea of Flash's alignment, and is therefore a villager.

I don't have too much time, but one more question: @Cluny the Scourge how do you know what a WGG is? That's the kind of thing that often is mentioned in elim docs but rarely in the thread.

[Yitzi2]

6 hours ago, Elenion said:

I'm fairly sure that one of Araris, Jon, and Meta is evil, because I doubt Seonid would form an elim team that didn't have at least one more-experienced player on it. Backing that up is the non-kill N0, which I've theorized in that past was either for info deprivation or to give all players a chance to participate, both strategies that tend to be suggested by experienced players. The question is: who?

I'm leaning away from Meta, because he suspected Flash. You'd think that an elim who knew Flash was village would say they were reading village on him, to try to win his trust, but Meta did the exact opposite. That reads to me like he had no idea of Flash's alignment, and is therefore a villager.

I don't have too much time, but one more question: @Cluny the Scourge how do you know what a WGG is? That's the kind of thing that often is mentioned in elim docs but rarely in the thread.

1. For everyone else reading the thread, I'm pretty sure that Elenion is an experienced player too.  Naturally, if he's elim he's not going to mention that possibility, and if he's village he knows he's not elim, but we should keep in mind that there's a fourth candidate.

2. I believe one of the stickied SE posts defines WGG.

[Jondesu he/him]

18 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

1. For everyone else reading the thread, I'm pretty sure that Elenion is an experienced player too.  Naturally, if he's elim he's not going to mention that possibility, and if he's village he knows he's not elim, but we should keep in mind that there's a fourth candidate.

2. I believe one of the stickied SE posts defines WGG.

He also claimed Day 1 that he wouldn't have done that, which now seems even more suspicious tied together with this latest post of his.

As for Cluny, I thought someone else brought it up in this thread, but yeah, he could have gotten it from one of the stickies threads. I've read through those myself, and they can be helpful, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's read some of them too.

[Sparkrunner he/him]

I was an elim LG:33, and

WGG: Acronym for Wounded Gazelle Gambit, sometimes referred to as the Princess Gambit. This is when the eliminators attack one of their own, but the attacked eliminator is somehow saved from death (usually due to protection), in an effort to get them trusted by the village. Learn more about the WGG on

(Sanderson Elimination Rules and Etiquette)

[Metacognition he/him]

I feel like a broken record, but I have to apologize for my absence yet again. This new work schedule is just killing me as far as finding time to play, but I don't want to let you all down by going inactive. 

First off, I'm glad that we can finally put the whole Flash thing to rest. As Cloudjumper pointed out (and Cluny tried to keep suspicion about...), I don't see the Ventures going this far to try to clear Flash. This is the same type of paranoid theory that got Orlok lynched after all and I'll go more into that later. 

Losing Ecth and what is likely our only other Metallurgist is definitely a blow and everyone need to be extra sure when using their remaining vials. I doubt we'll get more. 

@Jondesu: I've said before that I thought Flash was likely a Guardsman. I said I thought it made perfect sense for him to be a Villager; just that some of his actions were giving me some very Eliminy vibes (Sorry I haven't been around to give hints and tips, like you asked, Flash. We'll do that at some point in time, promise!) and I wanted him to address those. Heck, even him calling out so audaciously this turn makes the hairs on the back of my neck stand up a bit. It's just too loud unless he was trying to make sure everyone noticed that, "see? I can't be a Venture! I'm berating them for trying to kill me!" Which, of course, makes me think collusion most of the time. 

 

With all that out of the way, here's where I think we are now. I think we're arguing ourselves into circles. I have a fairly Villager-y read on most of the people that are still active at this point, so here's my theory. Kind of like what Jondesu said, I think we likely have only one more "active" Venture amongst us. They're the one that has been putting in kill orders. I think the rest of their group has gone inactive and that's why we're not hitting any of them. This would make sense with how aggressive Brightness was playing, IMO. If you look back at some of her posts with hindsight, some of them were incredibly blatant (like the one where she called for protection on Flash). This would make sense if there was only really herself and one other person in the Elim Doc. 

Which brings me to my vote, Cluny. I think Cluny might be the last "active" Venture we have to find. He's been hanging out on the periphery, a favored spot for Elims to hide. He's tried to at least throw some doubt onto whether or not Flash might not be a Village Mistborn. And then there's the fact that I think he's lying about having a Bronze Spike. I think he's a full-fledged Bronze Misting and that's something that I could easily see the Venture having. 

If Cluny turns out to be innocent (a very real possibility. I don't feel as strongly about this one as I have on other lynches), I suggest we take out some of our inactives. It'll keep the rest of us alive long enough to try to figure out who is the Venture in the lot and give us some breathing room, should we kill the inactive Ventures. 

That's my thinking anyways. 

Edited June 13, 2017 by Metacognition

[Elenion he/him]

7 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:

1. For everyone else reading the thread, I'm pretty sure that Elenion is an experienced player too.  Naturally, if he's elim he's not going to mention that possibility, and if he's village he knows he's not elim, but we should keep in mind that there's a fourth candidate.

Guilty. I'm older than Jon but came waaay after Meta and Araris. Those two are dinosaurs.

4 hours ago, Cluny the Scourge said:

I was an elim LG:33, and

WGG: Acronym for Wounded Gazelle Gambit, sometimes referred to as the Princess Gambit. This is when the eliminators attack one of their own, but the attacked eliminator is somehow saved from death (usually due to protection), in an effort to get them trusted by the village. Learn more about the WGG on

(Sanderson Elimination Rules and Etiquette)

With you being an elim in LG33 with Alv and Orlok, I'd be surprised if WGGs didn't get discussed at least once.

Still, I'm going to follow Meta's judgment here. Maybe not as far as to agree with him that there's only one active elim, but I've been suspicious of Cluny's role for multiple cycles. I think he's got the largest chance of being an elim of the living players. After him I'll be looking into which of Araris/Jon is likely the elim, because I've got a gut feeling that one of them is.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Wow, I am kind of ancient on here. I was in the first Anniversary Game. I guess it fits my favorite character being an elderly grump.

It seems like a few people are suspicious of Cluny, enough to lynch him based on recent days. From a strictly selfish perspective, there aren't too many bad outcomes for me. Cluny is village, or he isn't. He has a spike, or he doesn't. In 3/4 outcomes, an eliminator dies or I have a chance at getting a spike. Seems like its pretty good odds. But Cluny is already up for the lynch, so I'll hold off on changing my own vote to give him time to respond without a bandwagon forming.