Long Game 34: Allomancer

[Jondesu]

2 hours ago, The Flash said:

Well you guys would dead honest know better than I would. So if they don't have a coinshot, then why would they have a mistborn?why would you think I was a spy earlier? Which I'm not. And if I were to guess if anybody were the thief or metallurgist, it would be araris. The guy is a ghost. And frankly if so many of my gut reads have been right at this point, I'm going to keep following my gut. (Which means right now I'm going to find some food.)

I don't think they'd have a Mistborn, which is why I withdrew my vote on you once Orlok confirmed your story. Of course, if he does turn out to be Venture, all bets are off, but I still don't think he's likely an Elim. 

@Ecthelion III, I could probably be persuaded to join your suspicions of Meta, but those aren't particularly convincing reasons for it overall. Flash was being very erratic and saying things as if he knew for sure what the Ventures will do. I attribute it to being new and not understanding how some of those things work (claiming in the thread, Elims changing targets because someone says in the thread that they're going to protect someone or that they're sure they'll be attacked, etc). I can see how others might interpret his comments differently (I did, but I've slowly come to understand him, I think).

[Ecthelion III]

@Jondesu Could you be persuaded to take your vote off of me?

[Jondesu]

18 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

@Jondesu Could you be persuaded to take your vote off of me?

Whoops, meant to and forgot to include it. Ecthelion 

[Metacognition]

I don't have long. I'll have more time tomorrow since it's finally the weekend, but I don't want to leave you guys waiting on me. 

@Ecthelion III: Most of the reason I've been somewhat harsh with Flash is because, logically, it makes sense for him to be a Villager in my mind. But, his actions are consistently setting off my Elim radar. That's why I keep going into detail about the things he's doing. If he's actually a Villager, I'd like him to address those concerns rather than just ignore them, as he has been doing. Notice that out of all of the times I've said anything about him, I've never once voted for him. The only reason he hasn't gotten my vote is because I think that he's likely just a new player that doesn't understand that he's sending out some seriously Eliminy vibes. 
That said, the longer he goes without even making an attempt, the more I'm going to think that the reason is because he finds it difficult to respond to my concerns without giving himself away more so than him being innocent. 

With regards to Lopen's concerns (which seems to be your only real concerns as well. Jondesu was right about that, without telling me more than you wanted to hear from me, I probably would've waited on this until I finally got some sleep ), his logic is inheritedly flawed from the beginning. To be able to take advantage of a situation, I would have to have no prior knowledge of said situation. But, Lopen also said that the N0 no-kill was likely intentional. As such, if I were an Elim, I would've known that there wasn't going to be a kill and thus planned for the given circumstances and thus there wouldn't be a situation to "take advantage" of. 
As such, Lopen was trying to convict me of already knowing a certain outcome, but also not knowing about it at the same time. And that's why I'll remind you that just because someone is cleared as a villager doesn't necessarily make them correct.  

As far as my suspicions right now, while his reasoning was poor due to him supposedly not knowing about Striker claiming in thread, I do agree with Len. As I told Orlok in our PM before it was shut down (Brightness fulfilled that request, btw as it was only shut down after her death. I don't know why she did it any more than you, considering it wasn't like she was trying to win either Orlok or myself over, unless she had just not gotten around to it yet), I also suspect that the Ventures have a Seeker. It would make sense for them, considering that it only reveals metals and not alignment. I'd think that they'd have a full-fledged Seeker though, not just a Spike though. But, Cluny could've claimed to have a Spike when he actually is a Misting, so until I hear more about it, that's likely where my vote will go. 

Edited June 10, 2017 by Metacognition

[Ecthelion III]

@Metacognition Well, if you look back at the original post made by Lopen, it was clear that he had both of those thoughts in mind when he posted.

Quote

Meta - Mostly for the lack of a kill on Night 0, and then him helping lynch PK Day 1. I think the lack of a kill on N0 was intentional, and once PK got detained, Meta saw a chance to take advantage of the opportunity that not making a kill gave him. It's pretty thin, but enough to make me lean elim for him.

He said that 1) the lack of the kill was intentional and 2) he took advantage of the situation in the same sentence. So according to his (and my) logic, or at least my interpretation thereof, the eliminators did intentionally not make a kill, and then used that in their favor ("taking advantage of the opportunity"). So the syntax makes logical sense to me at least, with "taking advantage of the opportunity" not necessarily meaning one didn't know about it before it happened.

However, the syntax itself is unimportant when it's the underlying meaning that really matters. Elim!You didn't make a kill N0 and then used that to put suspicion on PK. Is that faulty logic?

Edit: never mind

Edited June 10, 2017 by Ecthelion III

[Elenion]

@Yitzi2  I don't follow your logic in suspecting Orlok. If the elims were simply trying to get PK lynched, Orlok wouldn't have needed to reveal himself. We would have just said that an anonymous captain had blocked the kill and lynched PK anyway. And knowing Orlok, he wouldn't have claimed unless he was convinced it was necessary to keep us on the right path. For that reason, I trust Orlok only less than Flash and myself.

@The Flash Araris is always pretty ghostly in games. He was the vigilante killer in AG3, if memory serves, and he had the elims stymied for a while. He's an experienced player, and I could see him masterminding a setup like what happened C1. Thing is, other than what he "could be" doing there's no evidence against him.

[Steeldancer]

6 hours ago, Metacognition said:

I don't have long. I'll have more time tomorrow since it's finally the weekend, but I don't want to leave you guys waiting on me. 

@Ecthelion III: Most of the reason I've been somewhat harsh with Flash is because, logically, it makes sense for him to be a Villager in my mind. But, his actions are consistently setting off my Elim radar. That's why I keep going into detail about the things he's doing. If he's actually a Villager, I'd like him to address those concerns rather than just ignore them, as he has been doing. Notice that out of all of the times I've said anything about him, I've never once voted for him. The only reason he hasn't gotten my vote is because I think that he's likely just a new player that doesn't understand that he's sending out some seriously Eliminy vibes. 
That said, the longer he goes without even making an attempt, the more I'm going to think that the reason is because he finds it difficult to respond to my concerns without giving himself away more so than him being innocent. 

With regards to Lopen's concerns (which seems to be your only real concerns as well. Jondesu was right about that, without telling me more than you wanted to hear from me, I probably would've waited on this until I finally got some sleep ), his logic is inheritedly flawed from the beginning. To be able to take advantage of a situation, I would have to have no prior knowledge of said situation. But, Lopen also said that the N0 no-kill was likely intentional. As such, if I were an Elim, I would've known that there wasn't going to be a kill and thus planned for the given circumstances and thus there wouldn't be a situation to "take advantage" of. 
As such, Lopen was trying to convict me of already knowing a certain outcome, but also not knowing about it at the same time. And that's why I'll remind you that just because someone is cleared as a villager doesn't necessarily make them correct.  

As far as my suspicions right now, while his reasoning was poor due to him supposedly not knowing about Striker claiming in thread, I do agree with Len. As I told Orlok in our PM before it was shut down (Brightness fulfilled that request, btw as it was only shut down after her death. I don't know why she did it any more than you, considering it wasn't like she was trying to win either Orlok or myself over, unless she had just not gotten around to it yet), I also suspect that the Ventures have a Seeker. It would make sense for them, considering that it only reveals metals and not alignment. I'd think that they'd have a full-fledged Seeker though, not just a Spike though. But, Cluny could've claimed to have a Spike when he actually is a Misting, so until I hear more about it, that's likely where my vote will go. 

Half the time I kind of scratch my head and have no idea what you are talking about meta. Because I'm not exactly sure what you're asking for. but I did mention that you feel village to me, right? You feel village. 

 

5 hours ago, Elenion said:

@Yitzi2  I don't follow your logic in suspecting Orlok. If the elims were simply trying to get PK lynched, Orlok wouldn't have needed to reveal himself. We would have just said that an anonymous captain had blocked the kill and lynched PK anyway. And knowing Orlok, he wouldn't have claimed unless he was convinced it was necessary to keep us on the right path. For that reason, I trust Orlok only less than Flash and myself.

@The Flash Araris is always pretty ghostly in games. He was the vigilante killer in AG3, if memory serves, and he had the elims stymied for a while. He's an experienced player, and I could see him masterminding a setup like what happened C1. Thing is, other than what he "could be" doing there's no evidence against him.

I'm glad you trust me. And ok. I wonder how he perfects the art of ghostliness. 

[Jondesu]

6 hours ago, Elenion said:

@The Flash Araris is always pretty ghostly in games. He was the vigilante killer in AG3, if memory serves, and he had the elims stymied for a while. He's an experienced player, and I could see him masterminding a setup like what happened C1. Thing is, other than what he "could be" doing there's no evidence against him.

From what I've seen, there'll almost never be evidence against Araris. He's like a Grey Man.

[Steeldancer]

@OrlokTsubodai are you going to tell us why you detained Yitzi2? I've seen you on, I know you're busy, but you could at least give us a quick "he was suspicious" or something. 

[Sart]

Vote count:
Cluny (1): Elenion
Elenion (0): Jondesu
Ecthelion (0): Jondesu
Orlok (2): Yitzi, Sart

I hate it when threads go inactive, because it's usually my fault for not posting. I tried looking back at Brightness's posts. She often claimed that Orlok was probably a villager. With her being revealed as an Eliminator, combined with the information we gain from lynching him, that's where my vote is going to go. I feel bad lynching someone when they're busy, but we need to act, otherwise the day will be wasted.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@The Flash, @Yitzi2, the decision to detain Yitzi was made very shortly before the rollover, based largely on a whim, and as I recall suspicion at the time, but I can't remember what for, for which I apologise.

[Ecthelion III]

Sorry, it's rather late in the cycle, but there aren't many votes out and I'd like to place my vote on Cloudjumper because he's just made one post this cycle which tries to assume what the eliminators are doing (didn't Flash get a lot of flak from that?) and attempts to reinforce suspicion on Cluny without actually voting on him.

Plus, this doesn't have as much weight, but it was clarified on p. 4 that the game is role madness, so it doesn't come as that much of a surprise to me that the eliminators are hitting lots of good roles.

[Metacognition]

 

I don't have  a lot of time, so I'm going to just quickly go over this and I'll be back on before rollover to go into more detail. 

19 hours ago, Ecthelion III said:

@Metacognition Well, if you look back at the original post made by Lopen, it was clear that he had both of those thoughts in mind when he posted.

He said that 1) the lack of the kill was intentional and 2) he took advantage of the situation in the same sentence. So according to his (and my) logic, or at least my interpretation thereof, the eliminators did intentionally not make a kill, and then used that in their favor ("taking advantage of the opportunity"). So the syntax makes logical sense to me at least, with "taking advantage of the opportunity" not necessarily meaning one didn't know about it before it happened.

However, the syntax itself is unimportant when it's the underlying meaning that really matters. Elim!You didn't make a kill N0 and then used that to put suspicion on PK. Is that faulty logic?

Edit: never mind

Why never mind? I actually hadn't thought of it like that and I can see where you're coming from. I'll try to address this later on, but this made sense to me as far as why, so why'd you abandon it?

13 hours ago, The Flash said:

Half the time I kind of scratch my head and have no idea what you are talking about meta. Because I'm not exactly sure what you're asking for. but I did mention that you feel village to me, right? You feel village. 

 

I'm glad you trust me. And ok. I wonder how he perfects the art of ghostliness. 

See? It's stuff like this, Flash. No real explanation; just I feel like a Villager to you. You know who would know that I'm a Villager? An Elim. That's why adding some explanation to your statements helps. It gives a reason for your actions. Like the fact that you go after anyone that thinks that you're an Elim. Why are you so sure that anyone that questions you must be evil? It's a narrow focused way to play and gives us no insight into what you're thinking; which is something an Elim does because they don't really care who gets lynched as long as someone does. 
So the more you can tell us about your thought process, the better. 

1 hour ago, Sart said:

Vote count:
Cluny (1): Elenion
Elenion (0): Jondesu
Ecthelion (0): Jondesu
Orlok (2): Yitzi, Sart

I hate it when threads go inactive, because it's usually my fault for not posting. I tried looking back at Brightness's posts. She often claimed that Orlok was probably a villager. With her being revealed as an Eliminator, combined with the information we gain from lynching him, that's where my vote is going to go. I feel bad lynching someone when they're busy, but we need to act, otherwise the day will be wasted.

I've said from Day 1 that I don't think Orlok is an Elim and I'll stick to that. As such, I don't like this lynch on Orlok and since Cluny hasn't clarified at all, as I said earlier, that's where my vote is going, even though that ties it up again. I'll keep an eye on it and if no one else votes, I'll remove mine so that we get some information, but I don't think killing Orlok is in our best interests. 

[Ecthelion III]

My never mind edit actually applied to a previous edit where I had asked for a vote tally but then realized there had been very few votes cast. I accidentally erased the previous edit. It should look like

Quote

Edit: Could I get a vote tally?

Edit: never mind

The actual post still matters.

@Metacognition

Edited June 11, 2017 by Ecthelion III

[Steeldancer]

I've been suspicious of both Orlok and cluny, but for now I'm going to go Orlok . The brightness thing is suspicious. I would look into it deeper, but I'm busy with friends at the moment and only just remembered this so my judgement might be a bit hasty

[cloudjumper]

10 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

Sorry, it's rather late in the cycle, but there aren't many votes out and I'd like to place my vote on Cloudjumper because he's just made 1. one post this cycle which 2. tries to assume what the eliminators are doing (didn't Flash get a lot of flak from that?) and 3. attempts to reinforce suspicion on Cluny without actually voting on him.

4. Plus, this doesn't have as much weight, but it was clarified on p. 4 that the game is role madness, so it doesn't come as that much of a surprise to me that the eliminators are hitting lots of good roles.

Added argument numbers in blue so that I could respond to them below with corresponding numbers

1. Plenty of people have made just one post this cycle, or even no posts. 

2. If you're talking about this post, then frankly, Flash tried to guess a lot more about the Elims' strategy and roles than I did. I just deduced something that I thought was the case through logic. Admittedly the logic was slightly faulty, as you pointed out in your argument 4, but it was what I thought at the time.

 

3. Honestly I just posted my reaction to seeing the writeup. I didn't read any of the posts until after I submitted it, and missed Cluny's roleclaim in my thread-skimming. 

4. I guess you're right on that one. I forgot to take that into account when I wrote that post. That pretty much destroys my whole argument, huh. But does that really mean I'm an Elim?

[Steeldancer]

@Metacognition  I apologize for not answering you earlier. My schedule today featured the ACT, deep cleaning my room, and physics studying with my friends. I didn't have very much time this morning to construct a better response to your post, I had about a half an hour before I was supposed to be taking the ACT  (where phones are a big no no). . Ok yes I'm suspicious of some people who are suspicious of me. But not every one who is suspicious of me. Namely stick was suspicious of me, and I trusted her. I trust you as well, despite you being suspicious of me. Araris seems suspicious of me too, and im not suspicious of him (but as pointed out earlier, the guy is a ghost). Frankly I think the things you're pointing out are evidence of my inexperience, not elimness. I really have been trying my best to provide insight into my thinking. If you have any tips for how I should play better, I would genuinely appreciate it. I'm honestly still not sure of what I'm doing. As evidence of that- unneeded role claim! Going back and forth on cluny! However I sense you're giving me the benefit of the doubt, as you aren't voting on me yet. So seriously, I would appreciate advice in how I play. 

[Yitzi2]

20 hours ago, Elenion said:

@Yitzi2@The Flash  I don't follow your logic in suspecting Orlok. If the elims were simply trying to get PK lynched, Orlok wouldn't have needed to reveal himself. We would have just said that an anonymous captain had blocked the kill and lynched PK anyway. And knowing Orlok, he wouldn't have claimed unless he was convinced it was necessary to keep us on the right path.

Yes, he definitely claimed because he was convinced it was necessary (or at least thought it might be necessary) to keep us on the right path.  To quote (page 10 in the thread):

"I'm feeling somewhat impulsive, and worry that this discussion is potentially heading down the wrong path. I detained Paranoid King during the night, thinking that there was some credence in Meta's thought that PK was using the anti-spike group as a distraction, and thinking that he was a strong enough character that he may well have determined the kill were he evil."

(As another point: Does the rest of it mean "I detained Paranoid King during the night, thinking that there was some credence in Meta's thought that PK was using the anti-spike group as a distraction, and thinking that he was a strong enough character that he may well have determined the kill were he evil and therefore I might be able to stop an elim kill", or "I detained Paranoid King during the night, thinking that there was some credence in Meta's thought that PK was using the anti-spike group as a distraction, and thinking that he was a strong enough character that he may well have determined the kill were he evil, and therefore was a good candidate to throw suspicion on by skipping the N0 kill"?  We're obviously meant to understand the first, but some players (admittedly, myself included) are fond of that sort of misdirection-without-actually-lying.)

Regarding Flash: He's a bit of a newbie, a bit more focused on trying out hemalurgy/allomancy synergy than actually winning, but I don't think he's an elim.

[Seonid]

The cycle is closed!

[Seonid]

Night 4: Mutiny

In the common room of the barracks, the mood was sour. The series of murders had left the guardsmen and women in a sullen mood, underlaid by an almost palpable fear. No cards were played at the tables, and no dice rolled in the corners. The laughter that had until recently filled the place was silent.

Locke Tekiel made his rounds, checking to make sure that nobody was fighting, watching the sentries for signs of sleepiness or drink. And, of course, watching for hoarding of metals. It was prohibited, and it was his job to enforce that sort of thing.

As he entered the common room, even the sullen murmur of voices grew silent - a sign that someone was disobeying orders if there ever was one. He spotted one soldier in the back covering something with his hand, and he walked towards him purposefully. The soldier tensed as Locke stopped in front of him.

"What is that in your hand?" His voice was stern and inflexible.

"N-N-N-Nothing, sir!" The other man was terrified. A sure troublemaker. He'd have to make an example here. Locke grabbed his hand in a practiced motion, finding a pressure point that caused the frightened soldier to clench his hand in pain, revealing a small pile of pewter shavings, apparently carved off of his mug of ale.

"Hoarding of metals, forbidden. I'll have to lock you up for the night for this, you know."

A chair scraped behind him. "You motherless fool! The Venture spies are murdering us like flies, and here you go on about locking someone up when all they did was try to figure out a way to protect themselves? Who do you think you are?"

Insubordination. Aggression towards a superior officer. Flagrant disrespect of a scion of House Tekiel. Locke was going to enjoy taking this one down. He whirled around to face his accuser. "I am your captain, and don't you forget it!"

Another man, swaying slightly with drink, stood up. "You know what I think?" he asked, his voice slightly slurred. "I think the captain wants us to be unprotected. I think he's in bed with the Ventures! He's gettin' paid good money to make sure we are walking around like targets while the assassins sit pretty in their hideout."

Locke pivoted to face him, but a number of other soldiers were standing now. He summoned a voice of command, and shouted "Are you insinuating that I would deal with the ash-cursed spawn of the House of Venture?" The mood was turning ugly, and dark mutters were flashing around.

Locke began to eye the exit, but there were three tables full of drinking soldiers giving dark glances his direction between him and safety. The first soldier made a move towards him, and the moment of suspense his authority had bought him broke. Locke darted towards the door.

It was as he had expected. He didn't make it.

------------------------------------

 

Night 4 has begun! It will end at 10:30 PM, Mountain Daylight Time, June 11th.

 

Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) was lynched! They were a Village Captain!

Vote Count:

cloudjumper (1): Ecthelion III

OrlokTsubodai (3): The Flash, Yitzi2, Sart

Cluny The Scourge (1): Elenion

Pewter,  Copper, and Brass available to order! 

 

 

Player List:

1. Marv (Hemalurgic_Headshot)
2. Barry Allen (The Flash)
3. Jeff (Manukos) - short for Jeffonimo
4. Lance (Ecthelion III) - The Second Nameless
5. Booken (Paranoid King) - a victim of the "common word + en" method of naming Village Seeker
6. Garshin (Yitzi2)
7. Ribis (cloudjumper) - the bored second son of a noble from the Remote Dominance
8. Stick McStick (_Stick_) Village Courier and Brass Spiked
9. Remart (Jondesu)
10. Beet Asper (Ornstein) - an old timer who knows his stuff Metallurgist
11. Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) - a scion of a well - respected noble house Village Captain
12. Absolen (StrikerEZ) - a skaa worker in the Conrad fields Village Lurcher
13. Jay (DroughtBringer) - a blind young man attempting to keep his blindness a secret
14. Boris (Elenion) - a guard known for laziness and general apathy
15. Hadrian Penrod (Araris Valerian) - hoping to ascend to Ruin
16. Mehir (Metacognition) - a mute and paranoid guard
17. Cluny (Cluny the Scourge) - a man who believes he is a rat with a spearhead on his tail
18. Valbar (TheMightyLopen) - who always gets ignored despite his large stature Village Rioter
19. Mila (BrightnessRadiant) - a girl from the country Venture Courier
20. Sorren Karidor (Dalinar Kholin) - an old guard who's been here longer than any of you whippersnappers Village Thug
21. Argyle (Sart) - a very clumsy man

Edited June 11, 2017 by Seonid

[Yitzi2]

Ok...so that raises the question: Why did the elims skip the N0 kill?  Were they just gambling on a detainment?

And are no metals available tonight?

Edited June 11, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Metacognition]

I'm far too inebriated to be posting, but I still want to say I told you so. 

And now we've lost our Captain because of it (our only one I beleive, since we haven't seen another one). 

we need to be on top of our game going forward. 

[Steeldancer]

1. Why the heck was an elim trying to protect two villagers? This makes no sense. 

2. I guess I'm sorry, orlok? This is the first time one of my gut feelings has been wrong. Now I have no idea what to do. 

[Jondesu]

Flash, I hope you're really learning from this game.  Paranoid theories can be okay, but usually they just cost us villagers.  In this case, a known and important role.  Sure, he hadn't detained the right people yet (and I think he could have been more effective had he waited for better suspicions before detaining anyone), but he was basically proven village, and he essentially proved your Mistborn claim, which he wouldn't have had any reason to do if he was Elim.  That almost clears you, though I'm wondering now if the Elims could indeed have a Mistborn.  Giving them few other significant roles, and making the Mistborn a fairly new player, could certainly balance the game.

[Seonid]

3 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:

Ok...so that raises the question: Why did the elims skip the N0 kill?  Were they just gambling on a detainment?

And are no metals available tonight?

My apologies.

Pewter, copper, and brass available