Long Game 34: Allomancer

[Steeldancer he/him]

3 hours ago, Metacognition said:

I feel like a broken record, but I have to apologize for my absence yet again. This new work schedule is just killing me as far as finding time to play, but I don't want to let you all down by going inactive. 

First off, I'm glad that we can finally put the whole Flash thing to rest. As Cloudjumper pointed out (and Cluny tried to keep suspicion about...), I don't see the Ventures going this far to try to clear Flash. This is the same type of paranoid theory that got Orlok lynched after all and I'll go more into that later. 

Losing Ecth and what is likely our only other Metallurgist is definitely a blow and everyone need to be extra sure when using their remaining vials. I doubt we'll get more. 

@Jondesu: I've said before that I thought Flash was likely a Guardsman. I said I thought it made perfect sense for him to be a Villager; just that some of his actions were giving me some very Eliminy vibes (Sorry I haven't been around to give hints and tips, like you asked, Flash. We'll do that at some point in time, promise!) and I wanted him to address those. Heck, even him calling out so audaciously this turn makes the hairs on the back of my neck stand up a bit. It's just too loud unless he was trying to make sure everyone noticed that, "see? I can't be a Venture! I'm berating them for trying to kill me!" Which, of course, makes me think collusion most of the time. 

 

With all that out of the way, here's where I think we are now. I think we're arguing ourselves into circles. I have a fairly Villager-y read on most of the people that are still active at this point, so here's my theory. Kind of like what Jondesu said, I think we likely have only one more "active" Venture amongst us. They're the one that has been putting in kill orders. I think the rest of their group has gone inactive and that's why we're not hitting any of them. This would make sense with how aggressive Brightness was playing, IMO. If you look back at some of her posts with hindsight, some of them were incredibly blatant (like the one where she called for protection on Flash). This would make sense if there was only really herself and one other person in the Elim Doc. 

Which brings me to my vote, Cluny. I think Cluny might be the last "active" Venture we have to find. He's been hanging out on the periphery, a favored spot for Elims to hide. He's tried to at least throw some doubt onto whether or not Flash might not be a Village Mistborn. And then there's the fact that I think he's lying about having a Bronze Spike. I think he's a full-fledged Bronze Misting and that's something that I could easily see the Venture having. 

If Cluny turns out to be innocent (a very real possibility. I don't feel as strongly about this one as I have on other lynches), I suggest we take out some of our inactives. It'll keep the rest of us alive long enough to try to figure out who is the Venture in the lot and give us some breathing room, should we kill the inactive Ventures. 

That's my thinking anyways. 

Thanks meta! I patientally await your training. And I'll follow this, given my gut read of cluny this entire game. which is why i kept coming back to him in my suspicions. Despite others saying that they believed him to be village (which is why I kept going back and forth). Also does this mean we should do a contribution crusade?

Edited June 13, 2017 by The Flash

[Sparkrunner he/him]

4 hours ago, Metacognition said:

Which brings me to my vote, Cluny. I think Cluny might be the last "active" Venture we have to find. He's been hanging out on the periphery, a favored spot for Elims to hide. He's tried to at least throw some doubt onto whether or not Flash might not be a Village Mistborn. And then there's the fact that I think he's lying about having a Bronze Spike. I think he's a full-fledged Bronze Misting and that's something that I could easily see the Venture having.

@Metacognition

Periphery? Essplain me this.

"He's tried top at least throw some doubt onto whether or not Flash might not be a Village Mistborn." OK. Someone said this before, Yitzi I think. Where have I done this? This looks like unfounded slander. I asked Yitzi to explain this too and he did not respond. Well? Where have I done this? I have thrown doubt on whether or not he is a Village Mistborn...

Quote

And then there's the fact that I think he's lying about having a Bronze Spike. I think he's a full-fledged Bronze Misting and that's something that I could easily see the Venture having.

I really hate to do this, but I am a brass misting with a Bronze Spike. *Sigh*

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@Metacognition, I'm a bit confused about the distinction between Cluny having a Bronze spike, and just being a Bronze misting, when it comes down to role distributions. The two are effectively the same, as far as the elims having Bronze as a part of their team. So that part of your argument seems moot to me.

 

[Yitzi2]

2 hours ago, Cluny the Scourge said:

@Metacognition

Periphery? Essplain me this.

"He's tried top at least throw some doubt onto whether or not Flash might not be a Village Mistborn." OK. Someone said this before, Yitzi I think. Where have I done this? This looks like unfounded slander. I asked Yitzi to explain this too and he did not respond.

I do not remember this.  I may have just missed it, but I usually don't accuse people of elim-hood based on what they try to throw doubt on anyway, so if you can find where this happened, that would be good.

 

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Metacognition, I'm a bit confused about the distinction between Cluny having a Bronze spike, and just being a Bronze misting, when it comes down to role distributions. The two are effectively the same, as far as the elims having Bronze as a part of their team. So that part of your argument seems moot to me.

Looks like you ninja'd me.

The reason it's not the same is that mistings start with the relevant metal whereas people with spikes don't.

[Jondesu he/him]

18 minutes ago, Cluny the Scourge said:

@Metacognition

Periphery? Essplain me this.

"He's tried top at least throw some doubt onto whether or not Flash might not be a Village Mistborn." OK. Someone said this before, Yitzi I think. Where have I done this? This looks like unfounded slander. I asked Yitzi to explain this too and he did not respond. Well? Where have I done this? I have thrown doubt on whether or not he is a Village Mistborn...

I really hate to do this, but I am a brass misting with a Bronze Spike. *Sigh*

Elims like to be active enough to not have people asking why they don't post, but not so active they catch a lot of flak or get into debates often, since they tend to get undesirable attention that way (votes). I'm not sure you're really sitting there, though, considering you've had a vote or two at least every cycle I think.

As for the Misting claim...we don't have any way to know if that's true, and I'm not sure how much it really matters, but I don't think you being a natural Seeker would make you any more likely an Elim. We do need to find the Elims, and I might vote on you if we need to secure a lynch (has there been any vote manipulation?), but Len is a bit more suspicious to me right now. I have to try to separate gut feelings from actual suspicions sometime, but considering I can't get myself engaged enough in this game (between RL stuff keeping me busy and just generally not being able to focus), I'm going to put that vote on Elenion, and if I get time to reassess and find a reason to switch, I will. Len, don't be upset, this is really just gut read and the fact that you have consistently deflected attention from you whenever possible (granted, that's usually just good playing, but you keep failing to mention yourself in groups that should clearly include you).

@Araris Valerian, you and Yitzi both ninja'd me, and I was about to point out the same thing Yitzi did when he double ninja'd me. A Bronze spike wouldn't come with metal vials, so it wouldn't have been useable.

Edited June 13, 2017 by Jondesu

[Sparkrunner he/him]

@Yitzi2

[cloudjumper he/him]

6 hours ago, Metacognition said:

This would make sense if there was only really herself and one other person in the Elim Doc. 

Why?

6 hours ago, Metacognition said:

If Cluny turns out to be innocent (a very real possibility. I don't feel as strongly about this one as I have on other lynches), I suggest we take out some of our inactives. It'll keep the rest of us alive long enough to try to figure out who is the Venture in the lot and give us some breathing room, should we kill the inactive Ventures. 

That's my thinking anyways. 

Wait, why does taking out inactives help at all? If Cluny is innocent, which I do believe he is, then I think that we should be focusing on killing active Ventures, because they're the ones who are putting in the kill orders. If an active Venture is killed, then we can just wait and see if Venture kills are still coming. What's the point of killing an inactive Elim if you could take out an active one? 

Honestly I feel like this whole lynching inactives thing is just a play by an Elim to have an excuse to lynch people that cannot defend themselves with no reasoning required. Meta.

 

Edited June 13, 2017 by cloudjumper

[Steeldancer he/him]

5 minutes ago, cloudjumper said:

Why?

Wait, why does taking out inactives help at all? If Cluny is innocent, which I do believe he is, then I think that we should be focusing on killing active Ventures, because they're the ones who are putting in the kill orders. If an active Venture is killed, then we can just wait and see if Venture kills are still coming. What's the point of killing an inactive Elim if you could take out an active one? 

Honestly I feel like this whole lynching inactives thing is just a play by an Elim to have an excuse to lynch people that cannot defend themselves with no reasoning required.

 

So who do you propose to lynch? 

[cloudjumper he/him]

Just now, The Flash said:

So who do you propose to lynch? 

I forgot to mention this in my post for some reason. I wanted to lynch Meta, so I edited it in.

[Steeldancer he/him]

I see possible elim teams here, so that if we hit an elim, we might be able to find the rest. but I have mutual right now so I'm not going to do the work required to figure that out . I'll figure it out tomorrow. With no school I'll have plenty of time

[Yitzi2]

2 hours ago, Cluny the Scourge said:

@Yitzi2

Ok...I'm really not sure how I got the idea that you said he was not Mistborn, or why I didn't see your post asking me that question.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

My bad, to all the people that pointed out the difference between those two. However, I still don't quite see why the elims would have one scenario over the other. Giving the elim team spikes rather than straight up roles would allow them to reassign abilities based on activity levels of players, which is definitely something that happens in a lot of games. So both role distributions seem feasible to me. I'm not going to guess on a difference in role distributions like that right now, and I'm a bit surprised that Meta is. But he did have other good reasons for his vote.

@cloudjumper, currently Meta is voting on an active player that has given response to accusations against him. Could you give your opinion about Cluny?

[Jondesu he/him]

3 hours ago, The Flash said:

I see possible elim teams here, so that if we hit an elim, we might be able to find the rest. but I have mutual right now so I'm not going to do the work required to figure that out . I'll figure it out tomorrow. With no school I'll have plenty of time

Yeah, I'm hopeful that we've got plenty of leads, but we kinda need to hit an Elim. With that in mind, I looked over what little notes I had on Len and Cluny, and it's really down to gut on both, but of the two, nothing I can find in Len's posts is what's setting me off (just I think my usual paranoia of Len), so while I think I might prefer lynching Meta, I'll change my vote from Elenion to Cluny. No way I want to risk any vote tampering.

[Metacognition he/him]

 

7 hours ago, Cluny the Scourge said:

@Metacognition

Periphery? Essplain me this.

"He's tried top at least throw some doubt onto whether or not Flash might not be a Village Mistborn." OK. Someone said this before, Yitzi I think. Where have I done this? This looks like unfounded slander. I asked Yitzi to explain this too and he did not respond. Well? Where have I done this? I have thrown doubt on whether or not he is a Village Mistborn...

I'm not claiming that you're stating that Flash isn't a Mistborn. I'm saying that you're trying to cast doubt about, as you pointed out, that he's a Village Mistborn. As I said, I really don't see the Ventures going to such great lengths to try to get Flash confirmed as to waste a kill on him as well as a Pewter Vial (as I believe Jondesu pointed out) at this point in the game when most of us were already fairly convinced in the first place. 

5 hours ago, cloudjumper said:

Why?

Wait, why does taking out inactives help at all? If Cluny is innocent, which I do believe he is, then I think that we should be focusing on killing active Ventures, because they're the ones who are putting in the kill orders. If an active Venture is killed, then we can just wait and see if Venture kills are still coming. What's the point of killing an inactive Elim if you could take out an active one? 

Honestly I feel like this whole lynching inactives thing is just a play by an Elim to have an excuse to lynch people that cannot defend themselves with no reasoning required. Meta.

 

Let's just assume that my theory is correct for the moment. If that's the case, then we have at least 3 more Ventures that we need to find and only one of them is active. If we continue trying to hunt for the active one, we dwindle our numbers of active villagers that can control the vote while they get closer to having a majority, which still counts their inactive members. During that time, we are going after only a single Elim that has a by far better percentage chance of staying hidden. 
By taking out their inactive members, that means that they need to kill more of us to be able to get a majority, which means that they have to dwindle down our numbers even further to win; all while remaining hidden. 

Don't get me wrong, the active Venture still should be our top priority, but by taking out their inactives, we take away the chance for them to more easily win the game. It's, as I said, to give us some more breathing room while not killing each other off and doing their work for them twice as fast as they would alone. If we have anymore Coinshots with vials, I'd actually ask them to do it for us, but I don't think that we really do. We've seen two Coinshot hits and I don't think Steel has been up to buy at all. 

 

This is all if I'm right, of course, and if we have a better target, I'm all for it. But we didn't decide on a lynch target today until very late in the day and if it comes down to that again, hitting an inactive and seeing if I'm right isn't a bad option if it takes out one of them. 

Edited June 14, 2017 by Metacognition

[cloudjumper he/him]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

@cloudjumper, currently Meta is voting on an active player that has given response to accusations against him. Could you give your opinion about Cluny?

K. First off I would to make clear that I firmly believe that Meta is an Elim, and my logic wouldn't make sense without this being true. So since there are very few votes this cycle, I think that Meta wouldn't vote on another Elim and give solid, seemingly legitimate reasons why they should lynch them that could potentially start a bandwagon and kill the Elim. However, assuming that Cluny is innocent, reasons that Meta would try to lynch him is that he claims to be a seeker, a very dangerous weapon to use against the Elims.

9 minutes ago, Metacognition said:

Let's just assume that my theory is correct for the moment. If that's the case, then we have at least 3 more Ventures that we need to find and only one of them is active. If we continue trying to hunt for the active one, we dwindle our numbers of active villagers that can control the vote while they get closer to having a majority, which still counts their inactive members. During that time, we are going after only a single Elim that has a by far better percentage chance of staying hidden. 
By taking out their inactive members, that means that they need to kill more of us to be able to get a majority, which means that they have to dwindle down our numbers even further to win; all while remaining hidden. 

Don't get me wrong, the active Venture still should be our top priority, but by taking out their inactives, we take away the chance for them to more easily win the game. It's, as I said, to give us some more breathing room while not killing each other off and doing their work for them twice as fast as they would alone. If we have anymore Coinshots with vials, I'd actually ask them to do it for us, but I don't think that we really do. We've seen two Coinshot hits and I don't think Steel has been up to buy at all. 

 

This is all if I'm right, of course, and if we have a better target, I'm all for it. But we didn't decide on a lynch target today until very late in the day and if it comes down to that again, hitting an inactive and seeing if I'm right isn't a bad option if it takes out one of them. 

This is indeed all if you're right. If you're wrong and the Elims are active, then we'll be killing a bunch of villagers and wasting our lynch, and we'll be doing the work of the elims for them. I think that instead we shouldn't rely on the chances of this happening, and instead focus on killing active elims. Based on your theory, there will be one more. We can't afford to stall for time killing inactives, as the Elims will still have a kill. If we kill an Elim and the kills stop coming, then we can think this through then, as we'll have infinite time to find a strategy. Until then, however, we are on a timer.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

The cycle is now closed!

[Seonid he/him]

Night 5: The Rat Who Fought Like A Man

The expected retribution for the murder of their captain never appeared. Lord Conrad had locked himself in his study, and was seeing nobody but his Terris steward. The other officers of the guard seemed reluctant to press the issue, perhaps noting that draconian punishment on a set of frightened men with weapons was not likely to end well for them.

In the midst of the apprehension, an idle conversation began in a bunkroom.

"Hey, Mehir. Did you know that we have a rat running around in the colors of the guard?"

Mehir looked back, blandly disinterested. Barry Allen pressed onwards.

"Fine. So he's not a rat, but he thinks he is. Says he's got this prehensi-whatsit tail with a spearhead on it that he uses to murder his enemies. Poisoned, too, to hear him tell it. The fellow's gone crazier than old Lord Venture."

Mehir nodded obliquely. Remart, lying in the top bunk on the other side of the room, looked over. "Can't you two just shut up? A guy's trying to get some sleep here. I've got night shift in an hour!"

Barry wasn't one to give up though, and at this hour, with a little drink in him, he was bolder than ever. "Come on, Remart. You can't say that that's not the craziest thing you've ever heard of? I think we ought to go do something about that. Sounds like a tell-tale sign of Venture assassins to me! Poison? That's what got Absolen, poor guy!"

After a little more cajoling, the three of them went off to find Cluny. Whatever was wrong with his brain, it hadn't affected his fighting abilities, though. The little man fought like a demon, but in the end, three on one odds was just too much. Forcing him back, back, back to a random bell tower that had appeared in the middle of the barracks, back, back into the floor. Barry Allen stopped. So did the others, forced back by almost a physical pressure.

A voice spoke at once in their minds. DO NOT INTERFERE. Something was happening, because Cluny had stopped near a long rope, trailing down from a bell that had suddenly appeared. He appeared to be shouting at someone standing on the bell. There was an exchange of defiant shouts, Cluny's insane cackle became a shout of fear. GOOOOOONNNNNNNNNGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The great bell fell.

R.I.P. Cluny

Rest in Pieces, Cluny.

------------------------------------

 

Night 5 has begun! It will end at 10:30 PM, Mountain Daylight Time, June 14th.

 

Cluny (Cluny the Scourge) was lynched! They were a Village Soother with a Bronze Spike!

Vote Count:

Jondesu (1): Araris Valerian

 

Metacognition (1): cloudjumper

Cluny The Scourge (3): The Flash, Jondesu, Metacognition

No metals are available to order! 

 

 

Player List:

1. Marv (Hemalurgic_Headshot)
2. Barry Allen (The Flash)
3. Jeff (Manukos) - short for Jeffonimo
4. Lance (Ecthelion III) - The Second Nameless Metallurgist
5. Booken (Paranoid King) - a victim of the "common word + en" method of naming Village Seeker
6. Garshin (Yitzi2)
7. Ribis (cloudjumper) - the bored second son of a noble from the Remote Dominance
8. Stick McStick (_Stick_) Village Courier and Brass Spiked
9. Remart (Jondesu)
10. Beet Asper (Ornstein) - an old timer who knows his stuff Metallurgist
11. Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) - a scion of a well - respected noble house Village Captain
12. Absolen (StrikerEZ) - a skaa worker in the Conrad fields Village Lurcher
13. Jay (DroughtBringer) - a blind young man attempting to keep his blindness a secret
14. Boris (Elenion) - a guard known for laziness and general apathy
15. Hadrian Penrod (Araris Valerian) - hoping to ascend to Ruin
16. Mehir (Metacognition) - a mute and paranoid guard
17. Cluny (Cluny the Scourge) - a man who believes he is a rat with a spearhead on his tail Village Soother with a Bronze Spike
18. Valbar (TheMightyLopen) - who always gets ignored despite his large stature Village Rioter
19. Mila (BrightnessRadiant) - a girl from the country Venture Courier
20. Sorren Karidor (Dalinar Kholin) - an old guard who's been here longer than any of you whippersnappers Village Thug
21. Argyle (Sart) - a very clumsy man

Edited June 14, 2017 by Seonid

[cloudjumper he/him]

Cluny, you will be remembered. We're very sorry. May you pass into the dead doc and rest in peace.

[Elenion he/him]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and just throw out some guesses as to the organization of the elim team right now:

They probably have at least one of [Meta, Araris, Jon, Len] as an experienced member. I'm putting myself in there because Jon would comment that I should be in there if I left myself out. 

They also likely have at least one inactive, so one or more of [HH, Manukos, Drought, Sart].

They most likely had 4 members, according to the 20% rule, meaning three still living. By probability, one is inactive, but only one. That leaves two active elims.

Generally, an elim team doesn't have more than 2 new or less-active players, so there's another reason why I don't think there are 2 inactive elims.

Most likely, Cloud and Meta are not both elims, because Cloud has been tunneling on Meta.

Last cycle I reasoned out that I expect that at least one of Araris and Jon is an elim.

I'm currently reading very village on Flash and slightly village on Meta.

Throwing this disorganized mess all together, that leaves me thinking that one of [Jon, Araris] is evil, one of [Meta, Yitzi, Cloud] is evil, and one inactive is evil. Because we have 4 inactives, I don't think the best course of action would be to start lynching them, because we have a decent chance of just killing another villager and making ourselves even worse off. Besides, an inactive elim doesn't help the others at all, except as a body for the win condition. Currently we can lose 5 villagers before things are tied up.

When it's a less-unholy time of night, I'm going to be taking a good hard look at Jon and Araris. Until then, I'm going to bed.

[Yitzi2]

9 hours ago, Elenion said:

Generally, an elim team doesn't have more than 2 new or less-active players, so there's another reason why I don't think there are 2 inactive elims.

I don't think HH was inactive at the time the teams were assigned.

[Jondesu he/him]

1 hour ago, Yitzi2 said:

I don't think HH was inactive at the time the teams were assigned.

That's a good point, HH looked like he was going to be active.  He does sometimes go inactive later in the game, so maybe Seonid took that into account (he'd be familiar with that), but not always.  I kinda doubt he would have gone inactive if he was an Elim, though I suppose it could be a ploy of some type.  I would tend to lean village on HH for that reason, though.

10 hours ago, Elenion said:

Throwing this disorganized mess all together, that leaves me thinking that one of [Jon, Araris] is evil, one of [Meta, Yitzi, Cloud] is evil, and one inactive is evil. Because we have 4 inactives, I don't think the best course of action would be to start lynching them, because we have a decent chance of just killing another villager and making ourselves even worse off. Besides, an inactive elim doesn't help the others at all, except as a body for the win condition. Currently we can lose 5 villagers before things are tied up.

When it's a less-unholy time of night, I'm going to be taking a good hard look at Jon and Araris. Until then, I'm going to bed.

I think I agree with the logic that led up to this, though I've seen Elims go at each other hard to avoid suspicion once one of them goes down.  Still, your pairings make sense.

Since I know I'm not evil, and that means if you're right, Araris probably is, I'm thinking Meta is evil, and probably either Manukos or Drought from the inactives (but like you said, weeding them out probably doesn't make a lot of sense right now, although the idea of keeping our active players around so the game continues to have discussion and villagers who are paying attention is certainly an appealing concept).  Manukos is erratic, so he can be a wildcard player on either team, and I believe he's been evil before, so Seonid might have had some info to know whether he'd be a good one to balance the team or not.  Drought is usually a good active player, but I believe he stated he had some IRL things that were going to keep him from participating as much?  Either way, I can see him being put on the Elim team thinking he'd be a good asset for them, since he usually would be, and then obviously that's been thrown off by his inactivity this game.

@Manukos, @DroughtBringer, you've been tagged before and haven't really returned (though I think Manukos posted at least once in the last two or three cycles, so he's not completely absent).  We'd love to hear more from you!

Of course, the other option would be that the Elim team consists of, say, Len, Meta, and Cloud, all active enough players, and that they're trying to make us assume there's an inactive player to get us off track.  Right now, I'm fairly neutral on you, Len, since I reread your posts and didn't find anything I specifically could call out as suspicious, but I know you're good at appearing innocent or neutral when you're an Elim, so I can't rule you out either, not even close.

I guess we'll have to see who dies tonight, and if that affects those pairings, but I agree that there's some distinct pairings we can probably eliminate as teammates.

Edited June 14, 2017 by Jondesu

[Steeldancer he/him]

Well darn. That gut read was CONPLETELY off track. Sorry Cluny. I'll get around to analyzing the thread as soon as I go mow my grandparents lawn. 

[Seonid he/him]

Cluny requested a small modification to his death writeup, and I've obliged his request. Go give him a few upvotes for the thematic appropriateness...

[Steeldancer he/him]

Wait a second? I was drunk? Again? Yikes I'm not a responsible guard am I. 

[Yitzi2]

Garshin thought back to the voice telling everyone not to interfere.  It was the same one that had sent him into this "scenario", as it had referred to the current test.  He presumed that Cluny had been another of its pawns...but why was it so important that Cluny be killed by a falling bell?

(OOC: Garshin's never read Redwall, as one might presume.)