Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss

[Madagascar]

While all the resht of you townshpeople an' shpiked pretendin' ter be townshpeople argue wif each other, I bin doin' shumethin' usheful in thish town fer once. Built more shtocks for thoshe what ash far ash I can tell ain't showed up yet or lasht night. Perhapsh not an egg-shact *hiccup* meashurement o' lurkitude, but Matilda can build only sho many shtocks before her armsh get tired, y'know.

55 minutes ago, Nyali said:

I'm still trying to figure out why the village coinshot killed Straw. It just doesn't make any sense to me. I guess they figured Dalinar would be protected again and went for someone else, but the choice just seems random. I am a believer in coinshotting someone every night, but you're supposed to go for the suspicious people first, not roll a die.

Preshumably they found him shushpishioushly noncommittal? Why wouldn't they think he wash at leasht ash shushpishioush ash anyone elshe, after all? The thing wif being an asshasshin ish they may act on their own reashonsh wifout anyone elshe'sh opinion interferin', after all. Blesshin' an' a cursh. They will do their job and we will do oursh. Which in my cashe ish raishin' jusht... all of the catsh.

[Jondesu he/him]

Remart swallowed a gulp of his ale (his gut still hurt, despite the pewter he was still burning, and the ale helped distract him). 

"Can ya'll start making some kind of sense out of this mess? At this point, neither I or my cold metal leg can keep track of who thinks who is behind these killin's. I'm glad no one's pointing a finger at me, at least, but I wish it didn't take a knife in my gut to convince everyone."

---

Non-RP, I'll pull together a vote tally if I get to the computer (on mobile now), but if someone else does it first that'll be helpful. I think we need to make sure we either solidify the lynch on Dalinar beyond manipulation (I think he's probably village, but I do understand he might have to go so people stop tunneling on him), or choose someone else and get enough votes to be sure. Herwynbe is still my top suspicion, but I haven't been able to analyze too deeply (still figuring out how, plus I'm not feeling great). The accusations against Rae and Joe (the not-HH one) seem logical, but I'm not convinced enough to switch my vote yet. (Couldn't think of a believable way for Remart to say all that, though.)

Edited January 17, 2017 by Jondesu

[little wilson she/her]

1 hour ago, Magestar said:

Wilson, one post every cycle, even assuming you mean turn, and not every 72 hours, is not super active.  And, yes, Wilson, you have a right to be as active as you'd like.  But you yourself posted this last day cycle;  

And proceeded to not post in the night cycle.

You'll notice if you go back to the games from before I'd get intensely involved, that I typically avoid posting during the night. The reason for that is that there isn't generally anything for me to say that can't wait for the day, and I'm (admittedly unnecessarily) paranoid that if show myself as a particular threat at that time, I'm more likely to be killed. So I stay quiet during the nights.

That apology was made because I'd never meant to only post once during the entire day cycle, but I was rather busy and had barely even found time to keep up with the thread. I made that post while eating lunch at a restaurant and drained half my phone's battery doing it. (I'm pretty sure that's the past I'm thinking about anyway...). I'm actually doing the same thing this time, but with dinner, and my phone just alerted me to 15% battery. Oh, the sacrifices I make.

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 Which is fine.  It's just kinda quiet.  You've made at least a post every cycle, and you were fairly active D1, so yes, you're active, but I still think that you've been quieter than normal.  It's not bad, I'm not accusing you of anything, and I'm not bothered by it, but you've made eight posts in 192 hours.  That's    about a post a day, including a post a sentence long and a post just about first-day voters.   Block posts are great, but it's dialogue between players that allows me to read them.  So yes, you've been kind of quiet.  Sure, don't increase your activity.  That's fine.  My read on you hasn't changed.

I may not be having debates with other players (unless you count this), but don't expect me to be thrilled about being lumped in with players who are not only barely posting at all, but not really getting their thoughts out there. There's a difference between my posts and the posts of Orlok, Wonko, Bugsy, Sart, etc, even if there's not much of a difference between the frequency (but there is, let's be honest).

You want me to interact? Give me a reason to. This focus on Dalinar you've all fallen into is useless. I'm not going to debate with a bunch of people who want to go lynch someone who's probably a villager after you've wasted a lynch and a Coinshot on him already. You're all tunneling, and it's pointless. It had a reason D1 but it's D3 now, and what have we actually learned? Nothing. Will we really learn much else when Dalinar is lynched and shown to be village? I'm actually curious about that. What will we learn? The answer is not much. Yes, if he's spiked, we'll learn a fair bit (though even then, not as much as you might think, outside of a few guesses on role distribution of the spiked, since people can say anything in the thread), but I really don't think he is. And therefore, this focus on Dalinar hurts the village a heck of a lot more than it helps it.

Let a Coinshot take him out. Let's use the lynch discussion for something that's not Dalinar for once.

[Arraenae]

Magestar and Araris, I have a very short-term memory, so I don't really remember what you said earlier. Why are you suspicious of me? I'd go back and check, but I have quite a bit of homework I need to get to.

Araris, I was the first person to vote on Dalinar. If I hadn't voted on him, it's possible that we wouldn't have sought to lynch him at least two times and possibly even three. I've also attempted to start a discussion on Lopen and Madagascar. I don't know if that's unhelpful, but I definitely have been contributing to this discussion.

Magestar, what I meant was that additional discussion about Dalinar today won't help. The only thing that would be more useful is Dalinar's alignment, but I'm not willing to spend a third lynch on that. We have an active Coinshot. Let them pick off Dalinar so we can move on to discussing other people.

Unfortunately, my laptop just died on me. I still have some internet access, but it's more limited now, so I'll likely be less active. Hopefully it'll get fixed soon and/or my mom will continue to lend me her laptop.

[Magestar he/him]

10 minutes ago, little wilson said:

There's a difference between my posts and the posts of Orlok, Wonko, Bugsy, Sart, etc, even if there's not much of a difference between the frequency (but there is, let's be honest).

Ok.  I apologize for lumping you in with that group of people.  I probably shouldn't have spoken how I did about you being frustrated with me saying you were quiet.  I tend to find you going off about how people view you mildly frustrating, so I did lash out a bit.  Sorry.  

The bolded bit made me laugh.  It's true, but the phrasing is amusing.

9 minutes ago, little wilson said:

Let a Coinshot take him out. Let's use the lynch discussion for something that's not Dalinar for once.

15 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Magestar, what I meant was that additional discussion about Dalinar today won't help. The only thing that would be more useful is Dalinar's alignment, but I'm not willing to spend a third lynch on that. We have an active Coinshot. Let them pick off Dalinar so we can move on to discussing other people.

See, I'm pretty sure that there's a lurcher on the Elim team.  Plus, seeing as we have a Coinshot, and what seems to be the best way to kill Dalinar is the lynch, I don't see why the discussion should center around Dalinar either.  But I'm also not seeing people bring up a lot of other good topics.  Rae has said something about Bugsy, but he hasn't responded, so I'm unsure what to do there.  Yes, there's the thing about Hero, but that will be so much easier to deal with once Dalinar's alignment is known.  

21 minutes ago, little wilson said:

It had a reason D1 but it's D3 now, and what have we actually learned? Nothing. Will we really learn much else when Dalinar is lynched and shown to be village? I'm actually curious about that. What will we learn? The answer is not much. Yes, if he's spiked, we'll learn a fair bit (though even then, not as much as you might think, outside of a few guesses on role distribution of the spiked, since people can say anything in the thread), but I really don't think he is. And therefore, this focus on Dalinar hurts the village a heck of a lot more than it helps it.

I want to know Dalinar's alignment.  I can speculate all I want, but I don't know, and I like to work with facts.  Which is why I think we should lynch him as soon as possible.  There should be no way for him to block this lynch.  People arguing against it, especially after he was protected by a lurcher, seems odd to me.  I think that since Dalinar's been holding up the lynch, there are now a number of targets for the Coinshot/s, and the Elims can't protect them all.  So we can have the Coinshot/s target them.  Easy peasy.  Dalinar's gone, you guys can discuss away after confirming the lynch, and give the coinshot/s some options.

I would have liked to have some RP for this post, but I don't have time.    Hopefully I'll be able to later.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

18 hours ago, Herowannabe said:

our Coinshot took out Straw. That seems like an odd choice to me- Straw wasn't on my spike-dar anywhere. Glancing back at the votes it looks like he voted for Etchelion on day 1 and didn't vote day 2, and nobody has voted for him at all (I believe. I'm just flipping through the game archive, I don't have detailed voting notes or anything. If I'm wrong, someone please say so).

I can guess why the coinshot attacked him. He couldn't attack Dalinar because elim lurcher would shield him... So the coinshot just took out someone who seemed a little quiet.

Personally, I think we have enough suspects that I disagree with the coinshot's decision... But I can see where they are coming from.

Also Dalinar. The way I see it we just need to get this over with. I would roleplay this vote, but in terms of RP my character is already defending Dalinar

 

At this point, with such a protracted lynch... I don't actually think it matters if Dalinar is innocent or guilty. After we have spent so much time on this, we can't afford to not kill Dalinar and learn his alignment. We need the information his death will yield, otherwise, frankly, the last three cycles have all been wasted.

 

Also, Dalinar, for what it's worth, whether you are elim or town... Well done. Literally from d1 the popular vote has been to kill you, and yet you lasted this long.

[Elenion he/him]

Straw has a habit of going less and less active as games go on, so I assumed that the Coinshot took the Contribution Crusade into their own hands.

[Jondesu he/him]

"Seems we've wasted a few days chasing Reginald and trying to kill him, or at least some of us have," Remart looked sidelong at some of the others that were close by, "and that was a complete waste of time. Now you want to waste more time trying to kill him again? Why don't we focus on something actually productive, like looking into those that keep pushing us towards people who they want to see dead."

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

So far I believe the majority of votes is on Dalinar (even Dalinar voted for himself), so let's drag our attention away from that. Dalinar insists that he's a Mistborn, and Jondesu is a Thug (presumably), Ecth was a Soother, Straw was a Rioter, so the Coinshot is undetermined and the Lurcher is unknown. I have a firm belief that the Lurcher is Spiked, and the Coinshot may be Spiked as well. All of the kills by the Coinshot have been Village... so if the Coinshot is firing upon Village, is the Seeker Spiked as well? And what about the Smoker? The Elims might be very well equipped this game.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

4 minutes ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

So far I believe the majority of votes is on Dalinar (even Dalinar voted for himself), so let's drag our attention away from that. Dalinar insists that he's a Mistborn, and Jondesu is a Thug (presumably), Ecth was a Soother, Straw was a Rioter, so the Coinshot is undetermined and the Lurcher is unknown. I have a firm belief that the Lurcher is Spiked, and the Coinshot may be Spiked as well. All of the kills by the Coinshot have been Village... so if the Coinshot is firing upon Village, is the Seeker Spiked as well? And what about the Smoker? The Elims might be very well equipped this game.

There is actually no assurance that there is 1 of each role in this game...

[Jondesu he/him]

Just now, Drake Marshall said:

There is actually no assurance that there is 1 of each role in this game...

We know for a fact there's no Tineye, in fact, since PMs closed, which I assume is because Dalinar was using Tin the first cycle, then switched. Meta is playing with us, it seems. I agree with the assessment that there is a Spiked Lurcher and very possibly Coinshot, but they wouldn't need a Seeker, they can just kill anyone not them. 

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

33 minutes ago, little wilson said:

 

You want me to interact? Give me a reason to. This focus on Dalinar you've all fallen into is useless. I'm not going to debate with a bunch of people who want to go lynch someone who's probably a villager after you've wasted a lynch and a Coinshot on him already. You're all tunneling, and it's pointless. It had a reason D1 but it's D3 now, and what have we actually learned? Nothing. Will we really learn much else when Dalinar is lynched and shown to be village? I'm actually curious about that. What will we learn? The answer is not much. Yes, if he's spiked, we'll learn a fair bit (though even then, not as much as you might think, outside of a few guesses on role distribution of the spiked, since people can say anything in the thread), but I really don't think he is. And therefore, this focus on Dalinar hurts the village a heck of a lot more than it helps it.

Let a Coinshot take him out. Let's use the lynch discussion for something that's not Dalinar for once.

I disagree with most of that, tbh. Earlier you say you don't want to be lumped in with people who you don't think you should be connected to and then you lump everyone into a category of "focusing on Dalinar." Me, Mage, and Doc have all given some in depth player analysis, and while there's not a lot, there are a few votes on players other than Dalinar that you could discuss. Here's the votes right now:

Dalinar(8): Hero, Nyali, Assassin, Len, Mage, Conquestor, Dalinar, Drake
Hero(1): Jondesu
Wonko(2): Mad, Lopen
HH(2): Doc, Wyrm(I think... )
Bugsy(1): Rae
Rae(1): Araris

Next problem I've got with what you're saying is that you say that Dalinar is probably a villager, when he's lynched he'll be shown as village, and later say you really don't think he's Spiked. What makes you so confident that Dalinar is village? I think it's possible he was framed, but I think it's much more likely he's Spiked, so I'm curious why you think it's more likely he's village. I guess that would just make you focus on Dalinar though, so maybe you don't want to go into that? Though if you gave good reasoning for why Dalinar is likely village, then we might end up lynching someone else.

It also annoys me that you say "you're all tunneling and it's pointless." How is it pointless?! I just gave my reads on people and like, half of them are dependent on Dalinar being Spiked, because he's been the center of everything that's happened so far. If Dalinar doesn't die, then what? I just scrap my reads based off of his alignment and go from there? I'll admit, if Dalinar is village, I'll have to go over things a good deal to fix my reads and I don't think we can get too many leads from that, but I can't just change my mind about his alignment for no reason.

His lynch had a reason D2. The lynch on him D1 wasn't that strong.

I would love it if we could let the Coinshot kill him, but given I heavily suspect he's Spiked, and a Mistborn at that, I doubt he'd ever be unprotected. The only way I see us not lynching Dalinar is if someone can come up with convincing arguments/proof that he's village or if we get a better case for someone besides him, neither of which you have provided. Not saying it's only your responsibility, but it's frustrating for me as a player to be told what I'm doing is useless and pointless without the player saying it explaining what they think we should do besides a general "lynch someone else." The same goes for Stink I might add. If you don't like the Dalinar lynch, argue your opinion, don't just act like everyone else is wasting the lynch.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@Arraenae Multiple times you took some small statement made by another player and turned it into, basically, an argument to lynch them. You have contributed, for sure, but I think you have made several attempts to sidetrack the conversation.

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

5 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

it's frustrating for me as a player to be told what I'm doing is useless and pointless without the player saying it explaining what they think we should do besides a general "lynch someone else." The same goes for Stink I might add. If you don't like the Dalinar lynch, argue your opinion, don't just act like everyone else is wasting the lynch.

Well, I never said anything against the Dalinar lynch, only that it seems inevitable and that in the meantime we should discuss something else while we ready our pitchforks and torches.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

2 minutes ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

Well, I never said anything against the Dalinar lynch, only that it seems inevitable and that in the meantime we should discuss something else while we ready our pitchforks and torches.

Which I agree with, hence the vote on Wonko and me posting that big post with my reads in it to begin the Day.

How about the kills on Jondesu and Kipper? Did Kipper have any PM's with anyone? I didn't have a PM with him, so I came up with my earlier theory for his death. I've no theories about the attack on Jondesu, since it seems unlikely he'd have been attacked for something he said in a PM because he would have revealed that straightaway and I haven't gone over his previous posts to see if he could have been attacked for something in those.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

5 hours ago, Wyrmhero said:

But for now, everyone else seemed to have his death firmly in hand, regardless of I personally felt. At least we would move on from this. I actually agreed with Rin's current thought, after hearing what everyone had to say today. Joe was acting a bit strange. He seemed to have done pretty much the same as Reginald, but been avoided by everyone. A mistake, or something more calculated by his friends, drawing to another guy instead of him? Joe tended to say a lot, but very little that was actually helpful. But more, I just didn't like what I heard from him today. Seemed a bit of an odd way to mourn someone, in my opinion. Not the first time he'd gone to lengths to show he was sorry for the passing of someone either. Perhaps it was honest, and the guilt was making him say that. Either way, I felt he deserved more investigation.

I'm guessing that vote is on Hemalurgic Headshot, since I haven't posted, and that's in RP. But I'd love for that to be confirmed.

Now I've read the whole thread, though i haven't finished taking notes, but Stick,  and Stink are all standing out as Suspicious to me. And Dalinar of course.

STINK, i find suspicious both because he RP'd as a seeker and because he voted on himself rather than vote on Dalinar. Rp'ing as a seeker as a Villager would just lead to increased chances of being killed by the eliminators. But if he wasn't an eliminator, it decreases chances of Vigilante's attacking him.

Stick Is suspicious because of how hard they've stuck to their argument of Wilson pulling a WGG, but at the same time didn't actually vote on Wilson. Stick also argued that the Eliminators have no reason to have a seeker, and therefore don't. (I would bet [ seventeen Boxings and a Carriage ] that the Eliminators have a seeker, if there is a seeker in this game.)

As for Dalinar, I still think He's the spiked Mistborn. But I have great Respect for Elbereth and WIlson, and will follow their lead in not voting for them. I will vote for STINK

Edited January 18, 2017 by A Joe in the Bush

[little wilson she/her]

24 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I disagree with most of that, tbh. Earlier you say you don't want to be lumped in with people who you don't think you should be connected to and then you lump everyone into a category of "focusing on Dalinar." Me, Mage, and Doc have all given some in depth player analysis, and while there's not a lot, there are a few votes on players other than Dalinar that you could discuss. Here's the votes right now:

Dalinar(8): Hero, Nyali, Assassin, Len, Mage, Conquestor, Dalinar, Drake
Hero(1): Jondesu
Wonko(2): Mad, Lopen
HH(2): Doc, Wyrm(I think... )
Bugsy(1): Rae
Rae(1): Araris

Really, Lopen? If you're going to misconstrue my points, at least try harder. I was being lumped among all the players who were posting less than once a cycle and not really sharing any opinions/thoughts. I didn't lump everyone else together, saying that everyone was focusing on Dalinar. Because not everyone is. Yeah, I noticed the player analyses you, Mage and Doc posted. I also noticed that there wasn't really a whole lot to any of them, as you admit. And player analyses have never been much to really interact with, beyond saying "Eh, yeah, I agree with you about this person, but I disagree about this person." They're better to look back on when a player dies, because you know what they thought about every player. So it's great that you guys posted them, but it doesn't add much of substance to the actual discussion. It's just something useful to recall. Or for other to note. Since Night 2, nearly all of the substantial thread discussion has been regarding Dalinar. There has been very little else discussed.

Now, because of this, I agree that him dying and discovering his alignment will give us a bit of information. But it won't make up for the loss of discussion, because we've now lost not one, not two but three days of discussion because of this. Three days. Do you really think we'll get so much info from that lynch to make up for losing three days of discussion? If he's good, we've got a few suspects for Spiked, but those suspects could just as easily be tunneling villagers - in fact, I would be more inclined to think that they are. If he's Spiked, we have a couple of guesses for role distribution, and a few more suspects for Spiked - but we'll also have some soft-clears of people who maybe shouldn't soft-cleared because while it looks like to us that the Spiked have tried really hard to keep Dalinar alive, that doesn't mean they were trying hard in the thread. If Dalinar's Spiked, I'd bet there was at least one Spiked who voted on him in every lynch. If.

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Next problem I've got with what you're saying is that you say that Dalinar is probably a villager, when he's lynched he'll be shown as village, and later say you really don't think he's Spiked. What makes you so confident that Dalinar is village? I think it's possible he was framed, but I think it's much more likely he's Spiked, so I'm curious why you think it's more likely he's village. I guess that would just make you focus on Dalinar though, so maybe you don't want to go into that? Though if you gave good reasoning for why Dalinar is likely village, then we might end up lynching someone else.

I'm not convinced he's a villager. But I think it much more likely that he's being set up. I'm not convinced the Rioter who "saved" him was Spiked. They could've easily just been someone who was more suspicious of Ecth than they were of Dalinar, had an ability they've never had before, and decided to do something with it. Villagers have done more in terms of vote manip in the past. And is it really much different than a Coinshot being a vigilante? Not really. You're assuming that they were trying to save Dalinar. But I don't think that's a safe assumption. I think Day 1 had two villagers up for the lynch, and when the Rioter stepped in, the Spiked capitalized on it when they knew there was a good chance he'd be attacked and lurched him, hoping to focus discussion on Dalinar for as long as they possibly could. And it's worked. Congrats, Spiked.

If I'm wrong, I'll be surprised.

 

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It also annoys me that you say "you're all tunneling and it's pointless." How is it pointless?! I just gave my reads on people and like, half of them are dependent on Dalinar being Spiked, because he's been the center of everything that's happened so far. If Dalinar doesn't die, then what? I just scrap my reads based off of his alignment and go from there? I'll admit, if Dalinar is village, I'll have to go over things a good deal to fix my reads and I don't think we can get too many leads from that, but I can't just change my mind about his alignment for no reason.

Exactly. Everything is contingent on Dalinar being Spiked, which isn't something I'm willing to assume, and it's really frustrating that everything substantial has been about him. That he's been the center of everything, just as you say. Because it didn't have to be this way. There were, and still are, other things we can discuss.

 

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His lynch had a reason D2. The lynch on him D1 wasn't that strong.

I would love it if we could let the Coinshot kill him, but given I heavily suspect he's Spiked, and a Mistborn at that, I doubt he'd ever be unprotected. The only way I see us not lynching Dalinar is if someone can come up with convincing arguments/proof that he's village or if we get a better case for someone besides him, neither of which you have provided. Not saying it's only your responsibility, but it's frustrating for me as a player to be told what I'm doing is useless and pointless without the player saying it explaining what they think we should do besides a general "lynch someone else." The same goes for Stink I might add. If you don't like the Dalinar lynch, argue your opinion, don't just act like everyone else is wasting the lynch.

The lynch on him D1 was typical of a D1 lynch. The D2 lynch, as far as I could tell, was mostly just because he survived the D1 lynch and and Coinshot's attack on him had just failed. That's....it. That's basically the entire substance of that lynch. Certainly not a reason to focus every bit of discussion on him for another turn (since the Night had been focused on him too). Yet, that's basically what happened.

But anyway. I talk about not letting the focus be about Dalinar, and say that there are other things we can discuss. So what are those other things? Well, for one, role distribution. Now, it's been said many, many times that one should not try to guess Meta's role distribution. However, that's at the very beginning of the game with no evidence. It's a poor idea to try to guess him. But at this point, we've now seen a few things. Dalinar claims that he drew Copper, then Pewter, and now Zinc. This means that he cannot be the Mistborn who drew Tin Cycle 1. That means there are at least two Mistborn. We've seen soothing, rioting, lurching, coinshots, and thug-survival. Here's a question for you: what if the vast majority of those actions are merely from Mistborn drawing those metals? What if the two Coinshot attacks weren't the actions of a single Coinshot but two different Mistborn who happened to draw Steel? What if the Spiked don't have a Lurcher but have a Mistborn who drew Iron? Now, we've also seen two Mistings: Ecth was a Sooth and Straw was a Rioter. El mentioned this during the last day cycle or the night, but what if most of the roles are Mistborn? How does that change our strategy? Does it? Should we discuss this? I'm not saying start planning in the thread for it, but if most of the roles are Mistborn, what do the Spiked have? An entire team of Mistborn? Honestly, I could see Meta being a troll like that.

I'd say that another thing we can do is focus on other suspicions, but I'm of the school of thought that says that the best discussions that happen in regards to solidifying suspicions and seeing exactly where people stand on specific people is when there's a threat of a lynch. And there's not right now, other than Dalinar. I don't foresee that changing, and I'm not going to try to direct it elsewhere, because I understand why: I was also more than a little irked when Dalinar survived the night because it meant that everything was going to get centered around him again, and will continue being centered around him until he dies. I want it over, but I don't think the information we gather from his alignment will be useful, and it's frustrating that we're not going to get anywhere during the day until he's dead. So go ahead and lynch him. But let's at least discuss other things.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

30 minutes ago, little wilson said:

But anyway. I talk about not letting the focus be about Dalinar, and say that there are other things we can discuss. So what are those other things? Well, for one, role distribution. Now, it's been said many, many times that one should not try to guess Meta's role distribution. However, that's at the very beginning of the game with no evidence. It's a poor idea to try to guess him. But at this point, we've now seen a few things. Dalinar claims that he drew Copper, then Pewter, and now Zinc. This means that he cannot be the Mistborn who drew Tin Cycle 1. That means there are at least two Mistborn. We've seen soothing, rioting, lurching, coinshots, and thug-survival. Here's a question for you: what if the vast majority of those actions are merely from Mistborn drawing those metals? What if the two Coinshot attacks weren't the actions of a single Coinshot but two different Mistborn who happened to draw Steel? What if the Spiked don't have a Lurcher but have a Mistborn who drew Iron? Now, we've also seen two Mistings: Ecth was a Sooth and Straw was a Rioter. El mentioned this during the last day cycle or the night, but what if most of the roles are Mistborn? How does that change our strategy? Does it? Should we discuss this? I'm not saying start planning in the thread for it, but if most of the roles are Mistborn, what do the Spiked have? An entire team of Mistborn? Honestly, I could see Meta being a troll like that.

I'd say that another thing we can do is focus on other suspicions, but I'm of the school of thought that says that the best discussions that happen in regards to solidifying suspicions and seeing exactly where people stand on specific people is when there's a threat of a lynch. And there's not right now, other than Dalinar. I don't foresee that changing, and I'm not going to try to direct it elsewhere, because I understand why: I was also more than a little irked when Dalinar survived the night because it meant that everything was going to get centered around him again, and will continue being centered around him until he dies. I want it over, but I don't think the information we gather from his alignment will be useful, and it's frustrating that we're not going to get anywhere during the day until he's dead. So go ahead and lynch him. But let's at least discuss other things.

I've also had some thoughts about role distributions. Specifically. I think there are multiple village seekers. My only evidence to this is the day 1 PM's. Meta didn't randomly give a mistborn Tin for the first cycle. That was deliberate. Partially to troll us, but also, I think, partially to give the seekers time to Pm their targets, tell them that they're a seeker who scanned them. Get *some* trust going. I think there's more than one *because* there was only one cycle of Tin. Seekers and Tineyes are a Powerful combination for the village. So, assuming it wasn't 100% troll reasons, Meta didn't put in tineyes, i think, to balance out the number of seekers.

Other than that, i don't have much. I agree with Wilson that there are likely too many Mistborn floating around, and I'm beginning to think the village has an excess of lurchers as well. And, if there aren't any regulars, of which i haven't seen any evidence, then I'd believe even more That all the eliminators are Mistborn, and that all the Villages are mistings.

[Jondesu he/him]

@TheMightyLopen, I just saw your comment about PMs, and I'd forgotten I did have some, though I doubt they're relevant since they were all C1 before anything substantive was known. Here's a quick summary in RP (keep in mind all of these are from D1, but I'm happy to provide more of the reasoning that led me to each of them if you'd like, and if it's not enough here):

Relaxing for lunch in the pub, Remart thought back to the first day, the unfortunate day this nightmare had begun.  Once he'd heard the way everyone was talking, he'd hoped for a bit more honest and private conversation, so he'd pulled aside a couple people, one on one, and discussed his thoughts on a few people.  He'd felt it was likely Whistler was alright, along with Nicki and Kip Pikker (who was unfortunately now dead, but also definitely not one of those causing trouble in the town).  Wyl Sharpe was a bit odd, but he'd had a good feeling about him too.  They'd each genuinely seemed to want to keep the town alive and together, prepared for the possible koloss threat, but also wanting to keep the traitors in their midst from doing harm.  Remart figured Kip had probably been targeted for just that type of discussion, in fact.

On the other hand, Jack Tormander was quickly making a list of who he didn't trust, and since that had included Remart, he wasn't inclined to trust the man in return.  Reginald was the focus of all the hullaballoo since the beginning, but he figured that was all bluster.  The old retired guy who never gave his name (Ecth), Cassius, and Stick all seemed to be sitting it out, or even stirring up a bit of trouble that came to nothing, while El…El had been trying very hard to convince everyone that a good number of other people loved Whistler and wouldn't have tried to kill him.  Since then, El had justified herself to Remart and the others, so he wasn't as worried, but he kept an eye on her just in case. The villagers had strung up the old guy who claimed to be something called a Nameless, but since he was gone now, Remart didn't feel a need to give him a second thought.

The three people he'd talked to had all heard all of this, and he'd expressed to Whistler that he felt he could trust him, but the others he'd simply wanted to feel out for their own opinions.  If they wanted to let anyone else know he'd talked to them, that was their business, but he didn't feel a need to share that with anyone else.  He'd not had the ability to talk to anyone privately since then, though, so he was hoping that chance might present itself again at some point soon.

Edited January 18, 2017 by Jondesu
Added death of Ecth, which I'd forgotten to mention.

[Silverblade5 he/him]

Basic thoughts after skimming:

Lots of discussion on Dalinar.

He's been only substantial focus

He's survived multiple kill attempts.

I believe he and a lurcher are/were in direct contact with each other.

What will we be talking about once he's finally dead? If he dies though a kill instead of a lynch, Ryth has a feeling we'll be aimless for a bit. But Ryth sucks at this, so take all this with a spoon of salt.

[Arraenae]

Alright. As this game has gone further and further on, I've gotten more suspicious of Lopen.

I've had a bad gut read on him since D1, when he voted on Dalinar right after I did. It seemed kind of bandwagony. Lopen started a PM with me in the Night, and we talked in it up until PMs ended. This alleviated some of my bad gut read on Lopen. (But then again I have a tendency to get comfortable around those I excessively talk to. It doesn't mean very much in terms of analysis.)

N2, Dalinar was protected by a Lurcher and survived. In our PM, Lopen also claimed Lurcher. Coincidence? With Meta's troll distributions, it could be. Still, D2 Lopen seemed very sure that "the Spiked Lurcher" protected Dalinar. Note the "the". "The" implies that there is only one Spiked Lurcher. If Lopen was the only Spiked Lurcher, he'd know for sure that there was only one, which would make his use of "the" make a lot of sense. (Araris, I know that this is a small semantics thing. I've commented on wording and tone before. I know it's not a solid reason to lynch somebody, but how many lynches in SE where nobody has been hard-cleared has been based on solid, unassailable reasoning?)

Is this a stretch? Sure. I'm going off of semantics and a roleclaim and a bad gut read, which really isn't very convincing. But hey, this ridiculous paranoid theory can't be any more of a stretch than the one Lopen had about Kipper. Besides, this one is backed up by more evidence.

Additionally, other people seem to have gotten bad reads about Lopen. Something in his posts and actions has to be tipping us all off. I'm willing to bank on a collective bad gut read that Lopen is Spiked.

---

An additional note:

I've done visual network analysis of D1 and D2. D1 had a lot of votes/defenses thrown around, mostly centered around Headshot, Lopen, El, Dalinar, Wilson, Nyali, Conquestor, and I. D2's discussion was a lot less spread out. Discussion focused on Dalinar, Lopen, Wyrm, and Hero. Note the decrease in discussion targets. Regardless of if the Spiked wanted to protect a teammate or cause us to collectively tunnel on Dalinar, they've cut down on our discussion. I'm not going to let the elims win by focusing on Dalinar yet again. We have a Coinshot. Let them deal with Dalinar on their own time. (The Spiked probably have more targets to protect than just Dalinar. If we let the Coinshot do their thing, sooner or later the Spiked will have to choose between Dalinar and another Spiked, and Dalinar won't be protected anymore.)

Don't waste another lynch on Dalinar if you want the village to win.

[Jondesu he/him]

Rae, that does add a convincing factor to that info. @TheMightyLopen, are you willing to confirm that you claimed Lurcher to Rae?

(Sorry for no RP this post, but it's 1AM here and I should be sleeping. Remart isn't because it's still day, so chances are he's found a snack and is resting his leg.)

[Stick. she/her]

I'm at school right now, and will post my thoughts when I'm home, but I'd like to know why we're still voting on Dalinar.

[Elenion he/him]

Hold on... Lopen claimed Lurcher? (Dalinar)

Combined with the grammar slip that Rae and I caught him on earlier, the alarm bells are tolling for him being that Spiked Lurcher that we're pretty sure exists.

If Lopen does turn out to be the Spiked Lurcher, then our Coinshot (assuming they aren't Spiked) can kill Dalinar at their leisure. If he isn't, then we can probe the Spiked's defenses with an attack and force them to either let the kill through or reveal that they've still got a Lurcher.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I have been suspicious of Lopen for a while. Mostly because He brought up the idea of WGG's before anyone else did, but didn't actually comment much on them, like he wanted everyone to suspect Wilson for being saved. I would also accept him being intelligent enough to pull a Attack/Save Wilson to get the village to lynch her. So i will happily Retract my vote on [ Stink ] and vote for [ Lopen. ]

Edited January 18, 2017 by A Joe in the Bush