Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss

[Dalinar Kholin]

37 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

As for you being a Mistborn, that honestly makes me more suspicious because I think it makes that much more sense for the Spiked to reveal what they have to keep you alive.

I don't really have a choice. Tell me the truth. If I chose to not reveal what I was, would I not be lynched tommorow after surviving the lynch? I don't get that logic at all. The longer the village keeps trying to kill me and I survive, the more likely I am to die, (ie. Harambe in LG 29). The Only Joe. Lopen.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Today is the last day I'll be inactive, as the extended family is leaving tonight.

I've skimmed the thread, and will probably vote for whoever has the most vites later in order to prove I'm not a vote manip. Tonight I'll respond to the votes on me and the other events of today.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

32 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

I don't really have a choice. Tell me the truth. If I chose to not reveal what I was, would I not be lynched tommorow after surviving the lynch? I don't get that logic at all. The longer the village keeps trying to kill me and I survive, the more likely I am to die, (ie. Harambe in LG 29). The Only Joe. Lopen.

Whether you revealed or not, I think that if you are really a Mistborn(which I'm inclined to believe), that fact would explain why the Spiked have done as much as they have to keep you alive(assuming the Rioter and Lurcher are Spiked >>). Many times, eliminators that are under heavy suspicion are cut off from the help of their teammates so they don't drag anyone else down when they die or reveal information about their team. In this case, we got some knowledge about the Spiked role distribution(Rioter, Lurcher, and if you turn out to be Spiked telling the truth about your role, they got a Mistborn as well, which would heavily point to the Coinshot who attacked you to be village, IMO), as well as narrowing down a little who the Spiked Rioter could be(because of the no voters and what little of the online times I was able to note down). The only reason the Spiked would reveal all of that is if they stood to gain something of equal value. So either they thought a wasted Coinshot attack/lynch was worth that info(because in this case they wouldn't have known you had pewter) being revealed, or, the more likely scenario in my mind, the death of one of their own was postponed plus we'd have to waste a Coinshot attack/lynch and now possibly another Coinshot attack/lynch(though it might be better for the Coinshot to go after someone else if you do survive this lynch), plus you might draw Steel this next Night Turn and they'd get an extra kill out of it. Or you could draw Bronze and find out someone's role or something.

I do think you could have revealed this much earlier. Then we'd have had more time to decide what we want to do. As it is, discussion has centered around you so we don't really have any great alternative(I'm not terribly suspicious of Hero and I definitely don't think I'm a suitable lynch target ). Anyways, I won't be able to be on much for the rest of this Cycle, so this is probably my last post, though I will probably be around for the last hour or so.

[Elenion he/him]

Question: anyone know of any good Soothing parlors around here? I don't like the idea of killing anyone with mob violence, and I'll need some way to deal with the remorse.  However, if I do want to kill anyone, it would be Stick, Lopen, or anyone good-looking who might be competition.

[Magestar he/him]

Ok.  I'm going to put my vote down on Dalinar.  Dalinar, I don't honestly know whether or not you're an Elim, but I do think your lynch will provide us with the most information.  At this point, that's something I think we are desperately in need of.  

41 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I've skimmed the thread, and will probably vote for whoever has the most vites later in order to prove I'm not a vote manip. Tonight I'll respond to the votes on me and the other events of today.

Not sure how voting proves your not a vote manip.  You could just not use your abilities, or the vote manips could not use their abilities, implicating you, and so on.

---

Another day, another long, tiring argument about who to lynch.  Carmichael shook his head.  There was a reason mobs of people never got anything done.  This reason, was, obviously, mob mentality.  Carmichael wasn't precisely sure what this meant, however, he was certain it was bad.  Which was, of course, why they were lynching Reginald.  When all else fails, lynch the center of attention.  Carmichael continued walking through town, lost in thought.

He suddenly stopped, after hearing what Cassius was saying.  He blinked.  There was no way he had said that.  Had he?  No!  That's impossible.  Stick and Soth were good looking, sure, but neither even compared to Carmichael.  He turned, taking a closer look at Cassius.  Come to think of it, Carmichael was certain he was better looking than Cassius, too.  The sheer nerve of the man!  He hadn't even mentioned Carmichael when talking about good looking people!  The audacity!

[Dalinar Kholin]

3 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Ok.  I'm going to put my vote down on Dalinar.  Dalinar, I don't honestly know whether or not you're an Elim, but I do think your lynch will provide us with the most information.  At this point, that's something I think we are desperately in need of.  

But I've just told you I won't die...meaning this lynch will provide us with no information...

 

22 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I do think you could have revealed this much earlier. Then we'd have had more time to decide what we want to do. As it is, discussion has centered around you so we don't really have any great alternative(I'm not terribly suspicious of Hero and I definitely don't think I'm a suitable lynch target ). Anyways, I won't be able to be on much for the rest of this Cycle, so this is probably my last post, though I will probably be around for the last hour or so.

Well, now that's just contradictory to your earlier point. You argued that a revealed mist born isn't much use to the village so I mind as well die, equally I should have revealed myself earlier, thus, according to your logic, ensuring I was not very useful and more likely to die. I was hoping the bandwagon would peter out, thus allowing me to conserve the fact that I am mistborn.

 

24 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Whether you revealed or not, I think that if you are really a Mistborn(which I'm inclined to believe), that fact would explain why the Spiked have done as much as they have to keep you alive(assuming the Rioter and Lurcher are Spiked >>). Many times, eliminators that are under heavy suspicion are cut off from the help of their teammates so they don't drag anyone else down when they die or reveal information about their team. In this case, we got some knowledge about the Spiked role distribution(Rioter, Lurcher, and if you turn out to be Spiked telling the truth about your role, they got a Mistborn as well, which would heavily point to the Coinshot who attacked you to be village, IMO), as well as narrowing down a little who the Spiked Rioter could be(because of the no voters and what little of the online times I was able to note down). The only reason the Spiked would reveal all of that is if they stood to gain something of equal value. So either they thought a wasted Coinshot attack/lynch was worth that info(because in this case they wouldn't have known you had pewter) being revealed, or, the more likely scenario in my mind, the death of one of their own was postponed plus we'd have to waste a Coinshot attack/lynch and now possibly another Coinshot attack/lynch(though it might be better for the Coinshot to go after someone else if you do survive this lynch), plus you might draw Steel this next Night Turn and they'd get an extra kill out of it. Or you could draw Bronze and find out someone's role or something.

Your logic for why they would do so much to protect me also isn't an argument for the lynch. If I was a villager, they would protect me, if I was an elim they protect me. Either way it's in their benifit to protect me. Yes, the village gains a little bit of information, but we equally lose information b/c we A: Tunnel, (ie people saying sure, I'll just throw a vote on Dalinar because everyone else is), and B: from no successful lynches or suprrises which might catch elim's and give us more info.

[Arraenae]

Quote

Hmm... well I wash goin' to shpare Wonko once he showed up, but he'sh going to try to lynch Hemalurgic Headshot on the firsht day o' his firsht village, which is just jerkish enough to make me want to continue voting for him outa shpite.

Madagascar said this D1 after Wonko voted on Headshot. How the storms does Madagascar know that this is Headshot's first time as a villager?

[Madagascar]

2 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Conquestor(1): Madagascar(so many votes )

 

It'sh not jusht me voting, it'sh the catsh.

I haff a queshtin fur all you eddicated youngshtersh out there. When Dalinar wash ashkin' me ter help him out the other day he shaid shomethin' like "a vote manipulation ish a two vote shwing sho you votin' wouldn't affect whether or not she diesh". Doesh thish sheem shushpicioush or not? I wash jusht thinking there ish two vote manipulashun typesh, a rioter like what happened yeshterday which doesh count ash a two vote shwing I thinksh, but alsho a shoother. If'n someone wash paranoid like they, they might think that wash a shign Dalinar knew a rioter might intervene, not a shoother, but I'm ashking caush I'm really not shure if it ish shushpishus or if I'm overanalyshing a random comment becaush I'm drunk.

1 minute ago, Arraenae said:

Madagascar said this D1 after Wonko voted on Headshot. How the storms does Madagascar know that this is Headshot's first time as a villager?

From thish being a village an' all the people shaying it wash hish "Day Wun firsht game."

[Arraenae]

38 minutes ago, Madagascar said:

From thish being a village an' all the people shaying it wash hish "Day Wun firsht game."

I'm pretty sure you know that in-game "village" means Not Spiked. Matilda-speak is one thing, but calling a player village when you have no reasonable way to know that is another thing.

Also, if anybody is interested, here's my visual summary of D1. Orange lines are votes, blue lines are defenses. If anybody can get anything useful from that, kudos to you.

Edited January 15, 2017 by Arraenae

[STINK he/him]

Quality's kinda bad on the photo Rae

Hard to read most of it

[Arraenae]

Alright Stink. Updated. (If you can't read my handwriting that's your issue. :P)

[Nyali she/her]

I'm back from the Mystery Hunt! It was fun. I'll try to catch up here...

---

At this point, there's almost no chance of anyone but Dalinar being lynched, but in light of what he's said, is that the right thing to do? I am pretty sure Dalinar is an elim. His posts really scream "elim trying to survive for just one more turn" to me. We could be wrong, but I really don't think so. So, the question is, do we lynch Dalinar this turn or next turn?

If Dalinar is telling the truth, this lynch will be wasted on him. But, at the same time, if he's lying, that's a great claim to try to get out of a lynch. I think it's clear he's an elim, but maybe we should just lynch him tomorrow when it's far more likely to work? If he's a Mistborn, then chances are high (100%?) he won't have Pewter tomorrow regardless of what he has today. If he's actually a Thug, well, he WAS attacked last turn. Do we know he was even lurched? Couldn't he have been protected by thugginess? It just seems that he would have no reason to lie if he WAS a Mistborn with Pewter this turn. I feel like it's unlikely that him surviving one more turn will be bad for us, unless he WAS a mistborn, in which case there's a chance he'll roll Steel next turn, which would be rather bad. Or if he really was a Mistborn and rolled Pewter NEXT turn... You can't get the same metal twice, right? So, if he rolled something besides Steel turn one, and rolled Pewter this turn, he has a 1/6 chance to roll Steel next turn? Is that how it works?

Okay, I think I've convinced myself that it IS worth it to vote for Dalinar, especially since the elims seem to have vote manip powers so the lynch really needs to be solidified.

Edited January 16, 2017 by Nyali

[Herowannabe he/him]

okay, I started my analysis at home on my computer, but I had to leave and now I'm on my phone with extended family so I'll unfortunately have to be brief, and won't be able to insert all the quotes I wanted to

okay, several people seem suspicious of me because I honed in on Dalinar today. Never mind that many other people have done so, too, some of them with no other explanation other than "well everyone else is doing it." But to me it seems very reasonable to suspect Dalinar. In fact I have seen nothing since the D1 lynch to make me NOT suspect Dalinar. 

Here is my reasoning for suspecting Dalinar:

1: two people have acted behind the scenes to save Dalinar (or perhaps one mistborn who happened to draw the right powers). By Dalinar's own admission, it wasn't him. However-

2: Both times he was saved- once by a rioter and once by a lurcher- he didn't seem the least bit surprised. His first post after being saved by the rioter began with "I'm annoyed..." But no surprise, no thanks offered, nothing that I would expect to see from someone who was saved by an unknown source. But if the source was already known in advance? Perhaps thanks was offered in the spiked doc...?

3: He predicted in advance that a lurcher would save him (although to be fair, it wasn't that hard of a prediction), but if Madagascar is to be believed then Dalinar may have had some advance knowledge that a rioter would save him, too. 

4. All his vote changes, his reasonings, his explanations afterwards- they all just feel like an eliminator trying to save his neck. This is less of a hard "reason" and more of a "feeling," but still. 

So all in all there was never any question in my mind that Dalinar needed to die. Even if he IS innocent (and perhaps especially so), we need to find that out as soon as possible. 

That being said, to Wyrm and everyone else who thinks Dalinar's innocent- why do you think so? I'm genuinely interested in your reasons who you think so. 

Now, in light of Dalinar's role claim. If he IS telling the truth about being a mistborn with pewter this cycle... regardless of whether or not he's evil I wouldn't want to waste a lynch on him today, but seeing as I'm next up on the chopping block I don't think I'll change my vote off of Dalinar. 

However, if the village puts up a different lynch candidate I would be willing to change my vote off of Dalinar (for today's vote at least). 

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

ErrRorr....Erooereo.l..Raoiawdand aodadawd....ERROR.....

A momentous event has occurred. The unyielding resolve has shifted!!!

Manukos

[Herowannabe he/him]

Can someone who's not on mobile give us an updated vote tally? 

[Metacognition he/him]

2 minutes ago, Herowannabe said:

Can someone who's not on mobile give us an updated vote tally? 

I was just about to do one in the first place, since there's 2 and half hours left! 

Votes:
Dalinar (9)- Assassin in Burgundy, Seonid, Nyali, Herowannabe, Arinian, Magestar, Lopen, Gamma Fiend, Bugsy
Herowannabe (3)- Jondesu, I Am Stick, Wyrmhero
I Am Stick (1)- Elenion
Madagascar (1)- Arraenae
Seonid (1)- Hemalurgic Headshot
Arraenae (1)- Araris
A Joe in the Bush (1)- Stink
Conquestor (1)- Madagascar
Lopen (1)- Dalinar

No Votes (13)- Elbereth, Wonko, Orlok, Sart, Wilson, Drake, Droughtbringer, Doc12, Straw, Silverblade, Conquestor, Manukos, A Joe in the Bush

 

So you're welcome.
As usual, let me know if I missed something!

Edited January 16, 2017 by Metacognition

[little wilson she/her]

Sorry about my lack of posting: I've been somewhat distracted the last couple days.

Since it looks like the Dalinar lynch is set in stone and my thoughts on that are unchanged (particularly given his Mistborn reveal--if he's lying, whatever, but if he's actually Spiked, why would the Spiked lurch him if they knew that he wouldn't die anyway? Assuming that it was the Spiked who lurched him, obviously, but I feel like that's a pretty safe assumption), my vote is going to go on my top suspicion right now. So Hero.

[Arraenae]

You know what? Dalinar. If he's an elim, then he has every reason to lie about having pewter. Besides, pewter protects from one attack, not an infinite amount. If he does have pewter and survives this lynch, then our lovely coinshot can attack him again, or perhaps choose a different target that they think is an elim. (I hope the one who attacked him last Night was a coinshot, at least.)

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Apologies, I realize in this cycle I have been less active than in previous ones. Just a bit more going on at the moment, I will have more in-depth posts and RP in the coming days.

On 1/14/2017 at 2:47 AM, I_am_a_Stick said:

I can't see why Ecth would tell all of you to kill me if he dies and tell me to do vice versa. I'd say he was trolling or something, but then someone manipulated a vote onto him. Might be a coincidence but...eh

Hm... That lines up. I feel that you are telling the truth about this.

Ecthelion was making some kind of attempt to draw out a killer. If Ecthelion had been killed at night, I might be a touch suspicious of Mage or Hero... But considering he was killed by a vote manipulation I do not think this lead is very much worth following. I don't suspect you any further @I_am_a_Stick (nor am I particularly suspicious of aforementioned Mage or Hero).

 

Also... Voting up Dalinar. In truth, I haven't yet decided if he is guilty or not. But I still have a few good reasons to vote for him:

1) Higher voter turnout makes vote manipulation easier to identify.

2) Dalinar's death will give us a lot of information. Almost everyone has weighed in on what they think of killing Dalinar, so whether or not he turns out guilty, we will have some solid leads once we kill him.

3) I find things like the collaboration Madascar mentioned slightly suspect. Not enough for me to confidently say Dalinar is guilty, but enough to make him more suspect than anyone else right now.

 

And, as always, may the Survivor protect you all. Or, not all of you actually, really just the townspeople

Edited January 16, 2017 by Drake Marshall

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

5 hours ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

But I've just told you I won't die...meaning this lynch will provide us with no information...

 

Well, now that's just contradictory to your earlier point. You argued that a revealed mist born isn't much use to the village so I mind as well die, equally I should have revealed myself earlier, thus, according to your logic, ensuring I was not very useful and more likely to die. I was hoping the bandwagon would peter out, thus allowing me to conserve the fact that I am mistborn.

 

Your logic for why they would do so much to protect me also isn't an argument for the lynch. If I was a villager, they would protect me, if I was an elim they protect me. Either way it's in their benifit to protect me. Yes, the village gains a little bit of information, but we equally lose information b/c we A: Tunnel, (ie people saying sure, I'll just throw a vote on Dalinar because everyone else is), and B: from no successful lynches or suprrises which might catch elim's and give us more info.

Gamma said that about a revealed mistborn not being as useful. Not me.

My point was that I think there's a higher chance the Spiked would reveal what they did if you're Spiked. Just my opinion, but I don't think in a game with 34 players, the Spiked would want to reveal very much about their role distribution this early just for a mislynch/no lynch or 2. Generally the early lynches are mislynches anyways.

38 minutes ago, little wilson said:

Sorry about my lack of posting: I've been somewhat distracted the last couple days.

Since it looks like the Dalinar lynch is set in stone and my thoughts on that are unchanged (particularly given his Mistborn reveal--if he's lying, whatever, but if he's actually Spiked, why would the Spiked lurch him if they knew that he wouldn't die anyway? Assuming that it was the Spiked who lurched him, obviously, but I feel like that's a pretty safe assumption), my vote is going to go on my top suspicion right now. So Hero.

If they'd allowed his pewter to take the hit, he'd have died to this lynch. As it is, discussion is focused on him for another Day, possibly this upcoming Night, and if they protect him again, we may have to end up lynching him once again. Assuming he's telling the truth about drawing pewter(which I hope he's not, but knowing my luck, he's telling the truth ).

[Arraenae]

On 1/13/2017 at 11:14 PM, Dalinar Kholin said:

From a strategic perspective, why would the elim's protect anyone who isn't me? (that's a serious question, please, if anyone has a better answer, then tell me).  It's in there best interests to keep the discussion as focused as possible on me being evil to waste our lynches (both day and night cycle) and our time therewithin.

Oh, maybe this is because the elims want to protect themselves (besides you, if you're an elim). Maybe one of their own members gathered a lot of suspicion and they wanted to protect that member. Drake also called for Stick's death by Coinshot -- they could have chosen to protect Stick. The elims might have thought that protecting you is in their best interests, but it certainly wasn't their only option.

@Elbereth, Silverblade, Droughtbriger, Sart, and Orlok, I don't remember any of you posting anything inthread today. Please try to say something, so we know that you haven't died in your sleep.

Mentions aren't working for me, so I'd appreciate anyone who could mention these people.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Okay, one last thing before I work on something else... So I just saw something about Dalinar claiming mistborn...

And, I mean, obviously it would suck if we did kill our mistborn... But personally, I find this revelation pretty suspicious. Sounds like a great way to make more chaos and have people second guess themselves. If he really has access to pewter this cycle then we can discuss it more after the lynch fails. If he is bluffing to stay alive as an elim, then he will be dead and we will have solved some problems.

Also another problem with your whole mistborn claim business... If you thought you were actually going to get lynched last cycle, you would have claimed mistborn, just as you did this cycle. Because of this, I cannot help but wonder if you were in touch with the rioter who saved you.

I mean, if I have been following things accurately (forgive me if I haven't been), I believe you already openly said that you collaborated with some people to make the lynch vote last cycle a tie.

But in a game with vote manipulations (and where I'm not sure we have actually confirmed that nobody dies on a tied up vote), I would not feel safe with a tied vote. Why weren't you claiming mistborn last cycle, when, according to your story, you had almost as much reason to be afraid of a lynch as you do right now? I can only conclude one of two things:

Either 1) you coordinated with a rioter in advance... And, given you haven't (to my knowledge, again please forgive me if I missed something) been open about coordinating with a rioter, I am forced to suspect that you and the rioter are both spiked...

Or 2) you knew you were actually safe last night, because you aren't really a mistborn, you are a pewterarm... But if you are now falsely claiming to be a mistborn (and trying to legitimize that by surviving this lynch), you are almost definitely spiked.

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I think you are  guilty @Dalinar Kholin

 

Also. Dalinar. If you really are town aligned and want town to win, don't burn your pewter this cycle. Let yourself be lynched. Otherwise you would be pointlessly wasting another town killing.

If you survive this lynch against that advice, I will know you are actually an eliminator. If you were really town aligned, you wouldn't intentionally waste the first 4 town kills.

[Elbereth she/her]

8 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

@Elbereth, Silverblade, Droughtbriger, Sart, and Orlok, I don't remember any of you posting anything inthread today. Please try to say something, so we know that you haven't died in your sleep.

I am here, and finally catching up on reading through the thread. I have just finished submitting my college applications, which is why I've been quiet for the last 72 hours.  I should be more active in the future now that that's over with. I'm about to be called to dinner, though, so probably won't be able to post properly until after turnover.

@Silverblade5, @DroughtBringer, @Sart, @OrlokTsubodai

[Sart he/him]

"Hasing the prerelease of magic. Backing in a bit."

[Elenion he/him]

Bandwagoning... instincts... too... strong... 

Stick Dalinar

Because in case of Meta giving the elims unholy amounts of vote manip and the village an excess of smokers (which I could totally see Meta doing), you can never be too cautious.