Long Game 28: The Awakening at the House on the Hill

[Mark IV he/him]

Haelbarde 

I guess that pacifies me. for now

I'm still going to be a little paranoid though.

[Straw he/him]

@The Young Bard Hi, first off I always think that day one should be devoted to poke votes to get people active and prevent lurking. I disapprove of inactive votes because it creates less discussion and information. Also, having inactive traitors will help us because in will stop the house from enacting a kill. Currently inactives make up almost 25% of our players.

[Stick. she/her]

Stick entered a room through a randomly chosen door. For a second, she thought she'd actually found a door leading to the outside. But it turned out to be some kinda inner courtyard with withered plants and rotten flowers (is that even a real thing). It was a horrifying sight, like looking at a massacre. A small, broken pine tree in the corner reminded Stick of Uncle PineTree.

Stick was about to turn around and leave the room when her eyes crossed something significantly precious: a shrubbery. Not just any shrubbery. Cousin Twig had died in the name of this shrubbery. It was a rare shrubbery, it was. Stick decided to keep it, even though it did not grant her any awesome powers or weapons. Stick was worthy of this shrubbery. However, this wasn't what she came looking for, so she took the shrubbery and continued her way.

---

So...yeah. I found a useless shrubbery form the courtyard XD Also, can an Omen turn its finder into an eliminator as well or does it convert only one of the others? I'm not going to vote just yet, though I have a few suspicions, which can wait. Also, is it possible to go exploring and find nothing? I didn't think it was :/

And...yeah.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

23 minutes ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Also, can an Omen turn its finder into an eliminator as well or does it convert only one of the others?

Also, is it possible to go exploring and find nothing? I didn't think it was :/

An Omen turns a random player into an Eliminator. This random player can be its discoverer.

It is possible to go exploring and find dud/gag 'items' (which are not actually items in the game) or nothing.

Edited November 21, 2016 by Wyrmhero

[Kasimir he/him]

23 minutes ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

 Also, can an Omen turn its finder into an eliminator as well or does it convert only one of the others? I'm not going to vote just yet, though I have a few suspicions, which can wait. Also, is it possible to go exploring and find nothing?

1. One Omen, one Eliminator only >> Do you want more?

2. Why can't you find nothing when exploring? Certainly, nothing must be something enough, if you can find nothing  (But of course, if nothing is something, does that mean it's still nothing?)

Edit: Whoops, ninjaed.

Edited November 21, 2016 by Kasimir

[Arraenae]

I PMed Phatt last Night. He responded, so he definitely has at least some internet access.

Doc. Fair enough.

---

The strawman scampered off into a door. Artie grinned. He wanted to savor the look on Kas-whatever's face when Artie outed his ruse.

"Everybody who wants to find the youngster causing this, follow me!" Artie cried. He waited a few seconds, then followed the straw man out the door.

EDIT: whoops wrong color. This is what happens when my sleep-fuzzled brain tries to code in colors...

Edited November 21, 2016 by Arraenae
See above

[Nyali she/her]

There are too many players in this game for me to get any sort of read on anyone x.x I'm having trouble following all this - I'll probably vote for an inactive once I determine who is inactive, as they are just as likely to become elims as anyone else, but they add less to the town if they are not elims.

[Mark IV he/him]

You could pick a player you know has posted, nyali (apparently, nyali gets autocorrected to khaki), and analyse all their posts?

 

Rae, why are you voting for doc again? I don't think you've retracted your first vote, have you?

[Nyali she/her]

10 minutes ago, Mark IV said:

You could pick a player you know has posted, nyali (apparently, nyali gets autocorrected to khaki), and analyse all their posts?

There are 2 elims and 35 players. That's, what, a 6% chance that a random person I pick is actually an elim? And soft-clears are meaningless since there could easily be another 2 elims tomorrow? I dunno how useful that would be.

 

How do people feel about continuing to explore tonight, by the way? I think continued exploration, even with being unable to find the Heart of the House (unless we get super lucky today), we'll get the elims out sooner. If I'm right that the number of omens is fixed, getting them all out asap seems prudent. It increases the chance we'll kill them with a random lynch, and it (in theory) doesn't give them more killing power. Whether there are 0 or 6 elims, exactly one villager dies every night, as I understand it. The sooner people get converted from our exploration the more information we have on the elims and the more we can rely on soft-clears, which are meaningless while random players are still being converted.

(For anyone who has played the Battlestar Galactica board game, my strategy in that game has always been to rush to 4 distance asap so all the traitor cards can be dealt out. That's basically what I'm arguing for here.)

[Elenion he/him]

21 minutes ago, Nyali said:

Whether there are 0 or 6 elims, exactly one villager dies every night, as I understand it. The sooner people get converted from our exploration the more information we have on the elims and the more we can rely on soft-clears, which are meaningless while random players are still being converted.

The advantage to this plan is that we get more information on the elims, but the disadvantage is that the more elims we get, the harder it will be to lynch one of them. With 2 elims, they have almost no voting power and are susceptible to the lucky bandwagon. When they have, say, 6 elims, it will be very difficult to lynch one of them because it will require 7 villagers voting as one.

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

1 hour ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

So...yeah. I found a useless shrubbery form the courtyard XD

Seriously, guys, stop! No matter how useless your item is, or even if you found nothing, revealing it only helps the Elims choose a target.

52 minutes ago, Nyali said:

If I'm right that the number of omens is fixed, getting them all out asap seems prudent. It increases the chance we'll kill them with a random lynch, and it (in theory) doesn't give them more killing power.

And if you're wrong? We could find ourselves facing pretty bad odds in just a few cycles. And while extra Elims don't power up the basic Elim kill, it has been heavily implied that each Elim is being given a unique role, likely with powers. Every omen found may well be a new ability the Traitors have access to.

I do think that for tonight, at least, the potential benefits outweigh the cost. The Village needs some powers of its own, and as has been stated, finding one of two elims is going to be pretty difficult. But I think we should stop once we hit 4-5 Elims -- any more could be too risky.

[Jondesu he/him]

Considering those odds and the discussion so far, I'm in favor of going D1 without a lynch at all. I don't see any indications that anyone is going to have any way of identifying an Elim (which we knew would almost certainly be the case), and it doesn't really hurt us yet to avoid a very likely village lynch instead of waiting till next cycle at least.

[STINK he/him]

Alright then I'll have fun choosing someone to lynch

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

3 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Considering those odds and the discussion so far, I'm in favor of going D1 without a lynch at all. I don't see any indications that anyone is going to have any way of identifying an Elim (which we knew would almost certainly be the case), and it doesn't really hurt us yet to avoid a very likely village lynch instead of waiting till next cycle at least.

Agreed. Ordinarily, you want a lynch even with absolutely no information, because you gain information from the reactions to said lynch. Here, though, there are so few existing Elims that the chances of catching something from them is low, while any behavior that might gain trust for a player must be called into question again and again every cycle.

1 minute ago, STINK said:

Alright then I'll have fun choosing someone to lynch

Though I had failed to consider the wild card of Stink's claimed "neutral" role. Stink, if you are, as you claim, neutral, what do you have to gain from a lynch?

[Mark IV he/him]

Stink's post reminds me that if we don't atleast vote for someone, the elims might just vote manip and kill someone they want too. Like LG15a. 

 

Sure, it's just two elims, and there's no one here as important as the captain from LG15, I would rather be willing to bet that the elims did get some special roles. Unless someone has some extra info about the abilities they gained, I'd rather plan for the worst case scenario and assume atleast one of them, if not both, gained a vote manip role. 

Which means we should atleast build up some lead in the votes. Sure, we'll end up killing another villager more likely than not, but we will gain some discussion from it. Why do it in the elims' terms? Why not our own? For all we know, we might just like the votes into an inactive, but hey, atleast we'll get discussion from it. 

 

(I know, my post sounds like a ramble. I just typed out thoughts as they came to me.)

Edited November 21, 2016 by Mark IV
Autocorrect strikes back! >.>

[STINK he/him]

4 minutes ago, Mark IV said:

Stink's post reminds me that if we don't atleast vote for someone, the elims might just vote manip and kill someone they want too. Like LG15a. 

 

11 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

Though I had failed to consider the wild card of Stink's claimed "neutral" role. Stink, if you are, as you claim, neutral, what do you have to gain from a lynch?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, I'm going to switch my vote from Bugsy to Jondesu. The merits of Day 1 lynches have been discussed untold numbers of times, and I figure I can get behind a lynch on a player that is hedging/against a lynch.

[Mark IV he/him]

I'm not too sure what stink's trying to say, but yeah, what wonko said was almost similar to what I said. Atleast that's how I see it. Unless stink is implying he's a neutral evil role? 

[STINK he/him]

Unless stink is implying that the eliminators will get away with a free lynch with only two people I mean cmon what is this, say obvious stuff day?

[Mark IV he/him]

Well, obviously. 

[Nyali she/her]

59 minutes ago, Elenion said:

The advantage to this plan is that we get more information on the elims, but the disadvantage is that the more elims we get, the harder it will be to lynch one of them. With 2 elims, they have almost no voting power and are susceptible to the lucky bandwagon. When they have, say, 6 elims, it will be very difficult to lynch one of them because it will require 7 villagers voting as one.

If all the elims are willing to vote to save an elim, then lynching them will be trivial. That's basically saying that all of the elims will reveal themselves if one is voted on. I highly doubt that's the case. If one person has 4 votes on them and another has 7 and that other person turns out to be innocent, then those seven are rather suspect, imo. They have to include at least one elim.

 

Also, if I'm wrong about the number of omens being fixed, then we just need to find ~35 omens for everyone to win xD

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

23 minutes ago, Mark IV said:

Stink's post reminds me that if we don't atleast vote for someone, the elims might just vote manip and kill someone they want too. Like LG15a. 

If they do have vote manip, then they will play their hand by using it this cycle. We'd no longer be guessing at their powers; we'd know -- at least a little. Additionally, we would gain information from the person they chose to kill with it. For all that, I am willing to risk a single village life, especially since the alternative is essentially just taking that life ourselves.

EDIT: That said, this obviously only works if we can get all the players to agree to a null lynch. Otherwise, those players who don't agree will just lynch who they please.

Edited November 21, 2016 by Wonko the Sane

[Dani she/her]

13 minutes ago, STINK said:

Unless stink is implying that the eliminators will get away with a free lynch with only two people I mean cmon what is this, say obvious stuff day?

Or we could let them get away with it  And so the next cycle we'd know who it was that voted for them.

Edit- ninja'd by wonko whoops

Edited November 21, 2016 by Daniyah

[Jondesu he/him]

16 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, I'm going to switch my vote from Bugsy to Jondesu. The merits of Day 1 lynches have been discussed untold numbers of times, and I figure I can get behind a lynch on a player that is hedging/against a lynch.

Umm, what? I'm ok with day 1 lynches (though I still feel the logic is shaky) in normal games, but this game is anything but normal. The chances of lynching an Elim are crazy low compared to a typical game, and there's not going to be a reaction from the Elims even if we do get lucky and target one, because it would be too dangerous for them. This has all been spelled out multiple times, and I wouldn't fight against a lynch if I was Elim, I'd just sit it out.

[Mark IV he/him]

Is it just me or is it funny how the discussion of the meta of lynching, rather than lynch discussion is causing ... Well... Discussion?

Edited November 21, 2016 by Mark IV