Long Game 23: The Siege of Luthadel

[Araris Valerian]

I'm gonna vote for Aman now, I've explained my reasoning already.

[TheSilverDragon]

Probably should have stayed with my gut vote, so aman.

edit: Mobil problems

Edited July 7, 2016 by TheSilverDragon

[Master Elodin]

Why not. I'm on a roll, so Aman.

[Mailliw73]

Time for honesty: Cett has 7 Koloss. Only Kipper has died from their faction. Now, I know the rest of us have taken much more than that, whether it be the loss of our Koloss or the loss of multiple players. I propose we lynch Rae.

[Arrae]

I'd rather not die because I'm in the wrong faction. Maill. You might be playing the faction war, but I think it only benefits the Spiked. (Are you Spiked, Maill? Are you trying to distract us from the Inquisitor that now has fingers in every single faction? That would explain a lot.)

Unrelated: I love how the title of D3 is "The Game Begins". A little late for that, Ren. 

[Zas678]

I still think Aman.  

[Young Bard]

2 hours ago, Bugsy6912 said:

Aman, I'm not entirely convinced that you're spiked. In fact, I read you as somewhat village. Still, I think letting a false scan become a way to avoid your own death is ludicrous and sets a terrible precedent. That sort of behavior is detrimental to the village, and if it is rewarded, it will spread and become rampant. If you truly are a scanner, which is by no means sure at this point, your scans are suspect anyways and even the alignment reveal accompanying your inevitable death can't confirm or deny your scans, as it's already proven you're willing to lie and manipulate scan data for your own sake and the sake of your faction. Basically, you won't help the village alive, and you'll send a much better message dead. 

Didn't Aman say he was trying to get replaced with a pinch-hitter? Which means you're punishing someone who's just come into the game because of something someone else did. Normally, you might have a point, but in these particular circumstances I think it's better to stick to actual reads rather than meta-reasoning. (I would quote all the others as well, but they all have virtually identical reasoning, which is flawed in this particular situation.)

1 hour ago, Mailliw73 said:

Time for honesty: Cett has 7 Koloss. Only Kipper has died from their faction. Now, I know the rest of us have taken much more than that, whether it be the loss of our Koloss or the loss of multiple players. I propose we lynch Rae.

And only Lopen has died from your faction, so why shouldn't we lynch one of your team? Because you attacked Venture and lost your koloss in order to kill Stink? I don't see how that's our fault. If anything, I'd suggest Venture, Penrod, and Cett attack your house before you pull off the same stunt against one of us. With that in mind, Maill. Cett has 7 koloss because they haven't attacked anyone, which means they could be friendly to other factions and searching for Spiked, which is more than we can say for Lekal at the minute.

4 hours ago, jaimeleecee said:

Three more dead and non of them Spiked.... we are slowly growing smaller while they are growing larger, great job making this easy for them everyone!

Maill you lied about (at least some) of your Venture info for sure, but think Aman's lying to save himself was a horrible thing to do.. hypocrite.. You say Aman is dangerous for his ability to get everyone to move or follow an idea, and attempt the same strategy he did the night before... I feel like you haven't done anything useful but point fingers at Aman (before his lie, for no obvious reason I could see) forcing him into a corner, and as a result out of the whole game if what he said in the previous cycle are still his intentions. I could see you wanting him out of the game if you were the inquisitor because he was saying that that was his biggest focus, and as a regular player, he would be very dangerous to you as the inquisitor. I think you are misguiding people on purpose, you have said from the beginning that you are not worrying about the spiked, just treating them as another faction.  They may be the same size (or one away) as at least one faction at this point, and have you done anything to prevent that? No. You're my biggest suspect right now.

I thought I'd respond to this, just because I think it's a case of 'making the right vote for the wrong reasons'. People lie in SE. I acknowledge this. And, people will go for their faction goals, because a defeat is a defeat whether they lose to another House or the Spiked.

However, if Maill is spurring on the factions to unite against Venture once, he could easily do it with any other faction again. So, if you want to protect your faction, Maill is the wisest choice to vote for right now. Maybe Aman would have been the best choice - until he's replaced by a pinch-hitter, who probably won't be nearly as experienced or skilled at manipulation.

[jaimeleecee]

8 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

1. No. I don't think that was a horrible thing to do and never said it was. I've done the same on many an occasion and people know it. I never condemned him for it, not once.

2. But with style. It obviously didn't work.

3. Misguiding people on purpose? Why would I do that? It isn't as if you're all my enemies and I have to kill you to win. Oh. Wait...

I guess my problem is that you pushed Aman into doing something that everyone else thinks is horrible, and are getting what you wanted at the end of the day. It just feels so extreme, especially since he is willing to leave the game over it. 

4 hours ago, The Young Bard said:

I thought I'd respond to this, just because I think it's a case of 'making the right vote for the wrong reasons'. People lie in SE. I acknowledge this. And, people will go for their faction goals, because a defeat is a defeat whether they lose to another House or the Spiked.

However, if Maill is spurring on the factions to unite against Venture once, he could easily do it with any other faction again. So, if you want to protect your faction, Maill is the wisest choice to vote for right now. Maybe Aman would have been the best choice - until he's replaced by a pinch-hitter, who probably won't be nearly as experienced or skilled at manipulation.

I guess I should have been more clear. I understand that lying is part of it, what bothers me is that Maill is rallying the masses against someone for doing the exact same things he himself is doing, aside from the bigger deception, which in my opinion is Maills fault anyway. He is my biggest suspect, he believes that the spiked are a faction, and he is doing all he can to ensure his faction wins. Who would be the biggest threat to the "spiked faction?" Most likely Aman. Spiked or not though, I agree with your reasoning completely.

[cloudjumper]

Renegade, could you tell us which factions each of the people who were killed were from?

[Burnt Spaghetti]

10 minutes ago, cloudjumper said:

Renegade, could you tell us which factions each of the people who were killed were from?

If they died in the day he could. Rules state that night time kills dont have the player factions revealed i believe.

[cloudjumper]

On 7/7/2016 at 6:50 AM, Burnt Spaghetti said:

If they died in the day he could. Rules state that night time kills dont have the player factions revealed i believe.

Okay

[Mailliw73]

7 hours ago, The Young Bard said:

Didn't Aman say he was trying to get replaced with a pinch-hitter? Which means you're punishing someone who's just come into the game because of something someone else did. Normally, you might have a point, but in these particular circumstances I think it's better to stick to actual reads rather than meta-reasoning. (I would quote all the others as well, but they all have virtually identical reasoning, which is flawed in this particular situation.)

And only Lopen has died from your faction, so why shouldn't we lynch one of your team? Because you attacked Venture and lost your koloss in order to kill Stink? I don't see how that's our fault. If anything, I'd suggest Venture, Penrod, and Cett attack your house before you pull off the same stunt against one of us. With that in mind, Maill. Cett has 7 koloss because they haven't attacked anyone, which means they could be friendly to other factions and searching for Spiked, which is more than we can say for Lekal at the minute.

I thought I'd respond to this, just because I think it's a case of 'making the right vote for the wrong reasons'. People lie in SE. I acknowledge this. And, people will go for their faction goals, because a defeat is a defeat whether they lose to another House or the Spiked.

However, if Maill is spurring on the factions to unite against Venture once, he could easily do it with any other faction again. So, if you want to protect your faction, Maill is the wisest choice to vote for right now. Maybe Aman would have been the best choice - until he's replaced by a pinch-hitter, who probably won't be nearly as experienced or skilled at manipulation.

No, no, no. You have all those factions mixed up. Lopen was a Venture. Stink was a Lekal; we were the ones attacked. 

Again, who's following me? Based off the votes on me, no one.

3 hours ago, jaimeleecee said:

I guess I should have been more clear. I understand that lying is part of it, what bothers me is that Maill is rallying the masses against someone for doing the exact same things he himself is doing, aside from the bigger deception, which in my opinion is Maills fault anyway. He is my biggest suspect, he believes that the spiked are a faction, and he is doing all he can to ensure his faction wins. Who would be the biggest threat to the "spiked faction?" Most likely Aman. Spiked or not though, I agree with your reasoning completely.

Rallying the masses? Tell me, what masses? I don't know anyone who's signed up for my plan. I use fancy words and announcements, but that's all for fun. 

[jaimeleecee]

2 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

No, no, no. You have all those factions mixed up. Lopen was a Venture. Stink was a Lekal; we were the ones attacked. 

Again, who's following me? Based off the votes on me, no one.

Rallying the masses? Tell me, what masses? I don't know anyone who's signed up for my plan. I use fancy words and announcements, but that's all for fun. 

Unless you are claiming Lekal I'm not sure how you would know that.  I would assume that Stink was Venture since he is the only one who died from a Koloss attack.  If that is the case, then I would imagine that Aman was not actually in Venture because of how much Stink openly opposed him.  So please explain to me how you are so sure that Aman is Venture? I'm not saying you are wrong, but a little more explanation for why I should believe you would be really helpful.

The votes for Aman last cycle were (mostly) your handy work, that is rallying.  And if the Koloss attack that killed Stink was in fact on Venture, then I'm inclined to believe you rallied again  I'm also not saying that doing any of this is bad, its just hypocritical to use this argument to kill someone (which is exactly what you did to Aman last cycle) when you have been doing the same things as him, just in a different way as you put it yourself  

[Mailliw73]

1 hour ago, jaimeleecee said:

Unless you are claiming Lekal I'm not sure how you would know that.  I would assume that Stink was Venture since he is the only one who died from a Koloss attack.  If that is the case, then I would imagine that Aman was not actually in Venture because of how much Stink openly opposed him.  So please explain to me how you are so sure that Aman is Venture? I'm not saying you are wrong, but a little more explanation for why I should believe you would be really helpful.

The votes for Aman last cycle were (mostly) your handy work, that is rallying.  And if the Koloss attack that killed Stink was in fact on Venture, then I'm inclined to believe you rallied again  I'm also not saying that doing any of this is bad, its just hypocritical to use this argument to kill someone (which is exactly what you did to Aman last cycle) when you have been doing the same things as him, just in a different way as you put it yourself  

I thought it was obvious, but I'll claim explicitly: Yes, I'm in Lekal. Stink was too. There aren't enough Houses for Aman not to be a Venture. 

Hah. I'm proud you think I have that much influence, but I only wish I did. I never get to pull off the lynches I want. That's Aman's/Wilson's field of expertise. A lot of the votes were already on Aman before I said anything, I just gave it a little push and then Aman's defense just convinced more and more people. 

Since the only dead Venture is Lopen, and that was too a Coinshot, and I know what each faction did with their Koloss, I know that Venture attacked us, while not a single House attacked them. So my rallying obviously failed. 

[Nyali]

I'm pretty certain it was Venture who attacked Lekal last night, not the other way around, putting Stink in Lekal. Our Kandra reports imply it, and various statements made here corroborate it. I think Aman was getting back at Maill for trying to mobilize people to attack Venture. My understanding of the deaths and knowledge of what my faction did suggests that no one helped Lekal attack Venture, if Lekal attacked at all.

Again, sticking with the Aman vote - he's the one person I'm absolutely sure is in Venture, and I would like to hit someone in Venture since they've proven to be a house of lies and murder. Not that we aren't all doing that to some extent, but Venture's lies are protecting the Spiked and their murder is more active than any other house. They're basically coming across to me as a second eliminator faction. Again, I know that technically all three factions that aren't your own are kinda like that, but there's a difference in magnitude so far. I wouldn't be surprised if the Inquisitor is in Venture...

EDIT: Semi-ninjaed

Edited July 7, 2016 by Nyali

[Straw]

Aman. House Venture must fall. Will you join us?

Edited July 7, 2016 by Straw

[cloudjumper]

Maill

Aman (7): Bugsy, Nyali, Araris, SD, Elodin, Zas, Straw

Maill (4): Jaime, Rae, Bard, Cloud

Rae (1): Maill

[Arrae]

Note: if you wanted Cett to attack Venture, Maill, you should have responded to us earlier than three storming minutes before turnover.

[Mailliw73]

15 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Note: if you wanted Cett to attack Venture, Maill, you should have responded to us earlier than three storming minutes before turnover.

Bard sent me a message 14 minutes beforehand! How was I supposed to reply any quicker? And my big announcement/request wasn't clear enough? 

[Arrae]

11 hours ago, Nyali said:

I'm pretty certain it was Venture who attacked Lekal last night, not the other way around, putting Stink in Lekal. Our Kandra reports imply it, and various statements made here corroborate it. I think Aman was getting back at Maill for trying to mobilize people to attack Venture. My understanding of the deaths and knowledge of what my faction did suggests that no one helped Lekal attack Venture, if Lekal attacked at all.

Again, sticking with the Aman vote - he's the one person I'm absolutely sure is in Venture, and I would like to hit someone in Venture since they've proven to be a house of lies and murder. Not that we aren't all doing that to some extent, but Venture's lies are protecting the Spiked and their murder is more active than any other house. They're basically coming across to me as a second eliminator faction. Again, I know that technically all three factions that aren't your own are kinda like that, but there's a difference in magnitude so far. I wouldn't be surprised if the Inquisitor is in Venture...

EDIT: Semi-ninjaed

Nyali, if I was a member of a house which two (or three) others had threatened with koloss, I would be resigned to a death in my faction and want to make the original perpetrator pay in blood. So if Venture is a "house of lies and murder" because some people wanted to get revenge, then every single Penrod who wants Amanuensis dead to get revenge for Orlok is a player of lies and murder. My hypothetical House would be a "house of lies and murder" because I'd be howling for someone, probably multiple people, to die. I think my factionmates would want to kill the original aggressor, too.

@Mailliw73, if your Penrod friend Nyali had dropped us a PM by way of Alv, maybe we could have coordinated the attack on Venture faster. Or you could have gotten Alv to give us an anonymous message with us a key to respond with.

If whittling down Venture was so important to you, a few vials (in another faction, no less) should have been nothing to you. Which makes me wonder why you are so miffed that it failed.

 

[Burnt Spaghetti]

I've edited in the countdown player list and quick links now. 

Also now have finally finished reading way of kings and words of radiance, so i technically should be able to be a little more active now.

Lynch thoughts will probably come later... hmm yes. Sometime in the next 6 hours likely...

 

Edit:

Question to lopens faction mates: did he openly claim seeker in the faction doc or keep quiet about it?

Edited July 8, 2016 by Burnt Spaghetti
Avoiding a double post

[jaimeleecee]

 

Well, I was trying to be ambiguous but I think it is pretty obvious that I am a Venture. Since Aman is no longer posting and no one else on my team wants to risk being revealed I am going to be the "face of Venture" as Maill is for Lekal and Nyali is for Penrod.

For starters, Aman did lie about being a seeker, Lopen was the actual seeker.  Lopen did seek Alv N1, so that information was not a lie. The plan for Lopen last night cycle was for him to seek Joe, however he died before we got those results, obviously.  At this point we are fairly certain that all of our factions have been compromised.  It is my opinion, as well as the opinion of my faction mates that we were compromised before N2 and that Lopen was killed so he could not reveal the information that he was about to receive.  So my questions for you guys, is Joe a Penrod or Lekal? To the faction who targeted Lopen, who first suggested it and what was their reasoning?

Lopen would make a good target given his apparent faction affiliation at the time, however if Venture was already supposed to be targeted by a Koloss kill what would be the advantage of killing another of us at the same time, leaving other factions at a greater advantage?  Which brings me to my next point.  Venture went all out on Lekal last night because we thought we were going to be attacked by all of the other factions and wanted to at least take someone down with us, from a faction who hadn't lost anyone yet.  However that plan backfired as no one ended up going for us at all.  Mail apparently did not plan on attacking us, but rather tried to get everyone else to use their resources instead.  Cett decided to lay low and keep their numbers high.  They have 7(!) Koloss right now, we obviously have very little because of the attack, Lekal too, and Penrod is already at a disadvantage because of their low numbers to earn boxings.  Cett is the strongest faction right now both in size and strength, and if the rest of us stand any chance of overpowering them we need to get them on a more even playing field.  Having all of us attack them at night is not an ideal plan, because of our already low defenses and the risk of them taking out one or more of us at the same time. 

My solution: If Joe is not a Lekal or a Penrod he must be a Cett, if he was in fact protected from a scanning last night then he is very likely a Spiked as well.  The Spiked are just as big of a threat as any other faction, if not more (especially now that they are 4) and if we can kill two birds with one stone right now, we should absolutely take that Opportunity. We are already at a disadvantage to Cett so we need to take out one of them, but if our theory about the Lopen kill is true and Joe turns out to be spiked too, jackpot.

 

Edited July 8, 2016 by jaimeleecee

[cloudjumper]

On 7/8/2016 at 7:20 AM, jaimeleecee said:

 

Well, I was trying to be ambiguous but I think it is pretty obvious that I am a Venture. Since Aman is no longer posting and no one else on my team wants to risk being revealed I am going to be the "face of Venture" as Maill is for Lekal and Nyali is for Penrod.

For starters, Aman did lie about being a seeker, Lopen was the actual seeker.  Lopen did seek Alv N1, so that information was not a lie. The plan for Lopen last night cycle was for him to seek Joe, however he died before we got those results, obviously.  At this point we are fairly certain that all of our factions have been compromised.  It is my opinion, as well as the opinion of my faction mates that we were compromised before N2 and that Lopen was killed so he could not reveal the information that he was about to receive.  So my questions for you guys, is Joe a Penrod or Lekal? To the faction who targeted Lopen, who first suggested it and what was their reasoning?

Lopen would make a good target given his apparent faction affiliation at the time, however if Venture was already supposed to be targeted by a Koloss kill what would be the advantage of killing another of us at the same time, leaving other factions at a greater advantage?  Which brings me to my next point.  Venture went all out on Lekal last night because we thought we were going to be attacked by all of the other factions and wanted to at least take someone down with us, from a faction who hadn't lost anyone yet.  However that plan backfired as no one ended up going for us at all.  Mail apparently did not plan on attacking us, but rather tried to get everyone else to use their resources instead.  Cett decided to lay low and keep their numbers high.  They have 7(!) Koloss right now, we obviously have very little because of the attack, Lekal too, and Penrod is already at a disadvantage because of their low numbers to earn boxings.  Cett is the strongest faction right now both in size and strength, and if the rest of us stand any chance of overpowering them we need to get them on a more even playing field.  Having all of us attack them at night is not an ideal plan, because of our already low defenses and the risk of them taking out one or more of us at the same time. 

My solution: If Joe is not a Lekal or a Penrod he must be a Cett, if he was in fact protected from a scanning last night then he is very likely a Spiked as well.  The Spiked are just as big of a threat as any other faction, if not more (especially now that they are 4) and if we can kill two birds with one stone right now, we should absolutely take that Opportunity. We are already at a disadvantage to Cett so we need to take out one of them, but if our theory about the Lopen kill is true and Joe turns out to be spiked too, jackpot.

 

Are you really sure that Joe is Spiked? He hasn't posted at all these last few cycles, and I wouldn't expect a Spiked person to go inactive like that.

[Nyali]

I don't follow the logic that if Joe was protected from scanning, he must be Spiked. Even if the Inquisitor started with a Copper spike, I'd be extremely surprised if there weren't true Smokers at the start of the game. Joe could just be a Smoker using his ability. While I think the ability helps the Spiked more than it helps the other factions, perhaps he was Smoking his faction's coinshot or mistborn or lurcher or whatever. Or maybe he IS a coinshot or mistborn or something and their faction has a smoker who was smoking HIM. Either way, I don't feel that a failed seeking is really that damning.

If a faction has a smoker, there's really little reason to save up vials to Flare, so why wouldn't they burn copper every turn?

While finding a spiked is totally damning, I feel that, like I said before, anything else can be a red heiring as far as the Spiked are concerned. So, to be clear, I'm not saying he ISN'T Spiked, just that what you're using as evidence is super weak. If you want to kill Joe because of his faction though, that's different.

[jaimeleecee]

No, we are not sure, that is why I asked the questions I asked. There’s no way we can be with the actual Seeker being dead. It just seems oddly convenient Lopen was killed over Aman. People were insistent that Aman was going to be lynched next if he survived the night, so it’s possible the Spiked reasoned that if they killed the real Seeker that would be more evidence against Aman and the village would waste a cycle killing him instead of one of them. That might have been reason alone for the decision. But the fact remains that Cett is pretty significantly ahead of the rest of us and if Joe is Cett he is a good target either way. Also, Joe has posted several times on other threads around the shard other than this game. He could very well be choosing to lurk because of his conversion. And there’s the fact that his issue with his internet didn’t start until D2; that’s N0 and N1 he could have been Spiked with them having no way to predict his inactivity.

@Nyali You're missing the point, it wasn't a failed seeking. Lopen was killed this past night cycle, so there were no results to his seeking, he was killed when Joe was his target for seeking. 

Edit: Just to be clear, my main argument is not that he is Spiked.  It is the fact that Cett is the strongest and therefore the lynch should be targeted towards them, however it is important to point out that Joe might be Spiked which makes him a better lynch target than any random Cett.

Edited July 8, 2016 by jaimeleecee