Mid-Range Game 14: The Canim Fury

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Okay, so, my reads so far:

 

Araris - So far, there's been 2 villagers with Tier 1 Metal who've died. Bugsy and Conq also have Metal(at least Tier 1). One of them could be the vigilante who killed Winter(not asking for a claim here guys, just stating a theory), basically clearing them(not a 100% clear, but I can't say I can see Winter letting herself be killed off just to gain some trust for one of her teammates. I mean, maybe? But I don't think it's likely). So, at least 3 villagers with Metal. Araris has Tier 3 Metal. Given that at least 3 players have Tier 1 Wood and 2 villagers had Earth Tier 2, I think it's definitely right to assume the Traitors have at least 1 extra kill. So...given we know Araris isn't the kill role that killed Winter, my suspicion of him has risen a good bit I think. His above post about forgetting to put in any Actions at all doesn't sound like something an eliminator would do(because they'd be talking about their roles and what they should do with them, etc.), but it definitely could happen and could even be a lie on his part(although it would be a seemingly random lie. Smart to do, if it is a lie.). I usually don't base suspicions off of role distribution, but in this case, along with the fact he attacked on C1 and his kill role is a hidden power(his primary is Earth), he's just been bumped up to suspect no. 1 for me. So, I'm voting on him.

Joe - I'm still suspicious of him. And my point about his and Araris' one interaction on Cycle 1 feels like more of a tell than it did back when I called it a paranoid theory, although I'll admit that point is based on Araris' alignment and so I don't think I'd like to lean on that point for explaining why I think Joe might be evil. Really, I've given my reasoning previously and I've got to get to sleep soon and still have a bunch more players, so I'll just say, his abilities would fit well with a team of evils of Winter, Araris, Joe and probably 1 more who's like, Earth and Fire or something, idk.

DC - Village read all the way so far.

Mailliw - Based on PM's with Winter, gut and just overall tone of posts, I'd guess villager. He's a bit tough to read until I've got more to go on.

Hellscythe - Seems to want a bunch of information. I'm reading him as village with a touch of paranoia thrown in to make me doubt that read. I think he's village though. It's kind of a gut thing, kind of a "I don't think he'd do what he's been doing as an eliminator" thing.

Bugsy - Another I've been reading as village for pretty much the whole game. Could be wrong(obviously >.<).

Conquestor - Um, I honestly don't remember what he's done so far in the game. >> Sorry Conq! I'll read over his posts sometime soon to see what I can find. Tentative village lean just based on how I've felt about his posts when I initially read them.

Cloudjumper - Pretty quiet. Not exactly unusual for him, but a little frustrating since I asked him a direct question and he never answered(I asked him what he thought about Joe last Cycle). Sooo, a little suspicious, I guess? :/

SilverDragon - Like I said before, him claiming to have attempted to protect Winter in the thread would kinda be suicide if he was evil. Could it have been an elaborate plot? No. (J/k, maybe, but I really don't think so.)

Seonid - Can't get a good read on him. For some reason I can't stop thinking of him as my GM. 

Gamma - Seems like a nice innocent villager.  (Heck, I don't know. He did try to lynch Joe on C1, but again, I'm not a huge fan of making alignment assumptions based on unconfirmed living players alignments.)

Aman - Umm, neutral read, surprisingly. I generally can get some kind of read on him by this point, but he hasn't been posting as much as usual and those posts just completely throw me off. Don't know what it is about you Aman. I'm calling it now that if there's a secret role, he's it.

Lopen - Well, since I did say I was suspicious of Winter(multiple times) and almost voted on her last Cycle, I should be cleared by now.

 

Yeah, so, goodnight all. I'll talk to you all tomorrow sometime after my sisters wedding most likely. (So, pretty late in the day most likely)

[Conquestor he/him]

Guys, I was roleblocked last night and I am still suspicious of Araris. Is Araris going to be on this cycle? Whoever killed Winter, good job, I wouldn't have thought that it was her.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I'm here seeing this, but my bro is playing in the state tennis tournament today, so I will not be able to post anything substantial until then. I'll try and go through all the players and give my reads on them at that point, just in case I do get lynched.

 

Also, does the metalcrafting extra life protect from the lynch as well?

[Elbereth she/her]

Also, does the metalcrafting extra life protect from the lynch as well?

No.

[Hellscythe he/him]

Well the eliminators probably know that I have Water as my secondary then, so I might as well tell the entire thread. I will be PMing a player every cycle to make sure that one of my actions is accountable for and then also hiding myself so that I'm immune to any actions used against me. That way it's consistently proven that there's no way I can kill anyone. That being said, I am now more suspicious of Lopen then I was before. He told me that he had a PM with DC from Day 1 still open last cycle but it turns out if you hide yourself (as he claimed he did) any PMs you're in are canceled that next turn. I know this because the GMs just closed our PM and when I inquired why I learned that it's because he hid himself. So Lopen who did you actually Hide C1? Winter, perhaps? Or did you use another ability, like Wood3?

 

If anyone wants a PM with me specifically feel free to mention it in thread. Otherwise I'll just go for a random player of my choosing.

I'd like a PM with you Aman. Why did you role block Conquestor last night? And did you get attacked last night?

 

I don't think you can self target with E2 though, so phatt was a sitting duck. And my reads seem to be on point so far. 

 

I'm gonna say that SilverDragon is soft-cleared(at least to me he is), for telling the thread his protection on Winter didn't work. If he was evil, I am pretty sure he'd have no reason to reveal that, since he wouldn't want to connect to one of his teammates so blatantly.

 

I'm very confused at to why someone moved Gamma's vote from phatt to Burnt(I believe that was the only vote shenanigan Mailliw). The way I see it, it could have been an eliminator wanting to force a lynch and realizing they were already killing phatt, decided to move a vote onto someone with a vote. I believe both Gamma and Joe were online after the votes switched off of Joe and onto phatt, so I'm thinking that one of them is probably evil. Could either of you prove that you didn't use your Tier I Fire?

You can use E1 to pull E2 to yourself so phatt wasn't that much of a duck.

I agree that SilverDragon is likely soft cleared. I don't think the eliminators would've used Wood I twice on Winter cycle one.

Oh by the way if you used W1 on Gamma, Gamma is the only player that could've switched his vote onto Burnt.

I. Each turn you may hide a player (including yourself). Anyone actions targeting that player (other than their own) will fail.

 

Just some notes the following people have yet to vote:

15. Seonid (Air) No votes

12. cloudjumper (Air) No votes

13. SilverDragon (Wood) No votes

Some more notes: last cycle I narrowed down whose actions hadn't been accounted for and who could've made the eliminator kill the first cycle.

16. Gamma Fiend (Fire) - States feelings about the way the cycle turned out and Joe. Attacks Phatt. 0 actions accounted for.

3. Phatt (Earth) Claims 4 Tiers of different craft. Probably Tier 2 Earth.  - Infers he protected Burnt. traitors don't exist. unvote Araris

14. Burnt Spaghetti (Earth) - “I directed all actions against Seonid to myself so either I was attacked or he was.” - Was attacked by metal. 1 action.

4. DC  (Air) 1 action accounted for

15. Seonid (Air) 0 actions accounted for

12. cloudjumper (Air) 0 actions accounted for

13. SilverDragon (Wood) 1 action accounted for

 

 

 

FROM ARARIS CYCLE TWO: and my plan was to protect myself and Burnt, and to redirect from Gamme to myself, effectively protecting 3 people. But then HS voted for me with basically no reasoning, and I was grouchy and tired, so I changed my actions.

 Araris, what did you change your actions to other than attacking me cycle one?

 

 

Also Bugsy did you kill Winter?

Edited May 27, 2016 by Hellscythe

[Amanuensis he/him]

I'd like a PM with you Aman. Why did you role block Conquestor last night? And did you get attacked last night?

 

Unfortunately I already used it on Mailliw. I had considered using it on you to test if you could really hide yourself. I will message you next cycle however. Also, I did not roleblock Con, and received no notification suggesting I had been attacked, only that my PM with Lopen was closed due to a block (because he hid himself).

 

C1 Actions: PM Joe, Hide Self

C2 Actions: PM Lopen, Hide Self

C3 Actions: PM Mailliw, Hide Self

 

I will very likely keep this trend up so that I can survive until the end for once

 

Oh by the way if you used W1 on Gamma, Gamma is the only player that could've switched his vote onto Burnt.

 

Lopen. Gamma. Why did you manipulate your own vote to kill Burnt instead of just change it yourself?

[Hellscythe he/him]

16. Gamma Fiend (Fire) - States feelings about the way the cycle turned out and Joe. Attacks Phatt. 0 actions accounted for.

4. DC  (Air) 1 action accounted for

15. Seonid (Air) 0 actions accounted for

12. cloudjumper (Air) 0 actions accounted for

13. SilverDragon (Wood) 1 action accounted for

By the way one of the actions we're also looking for is the eliminator who protected Winter that blocked SilverDragon's Wood I in addition to the eliminator kill.

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

I already let Mailliw know what I did with my Fire last cycle. I left my vote on Phattemer, putting pressure on him in the thread, but I really kept it on there to see if anybody would try swaying the vote last minute in favor or against Phatt. Like Conquest throwing a vote on Phatt very late in the thread. So I'd like to hear more about that.

 

The lynch is one of the most important parts of the game, so it would be useless to switch my vote to cause no lynch, as that literally gets us nowhere as villagers. So once it was clear that Phatt wasn't being saved from the lynch by anybody, I figured he was pretty safe and switched the vote to Burnt.

Edited May 29, 2016 by Gamma Fiend

[Mailliw73 he/him]

So, the Metal II/III user who killed Winter is basically cleared now. So, who are you? There's plenty of protections to go around on you.

[TheSilverDragon he/him]

Ok, here are my actions for the first two cycles.

C1: Prtoected winter with wood 1 and killed Straw with metal 2

C2: Protected Lopen with wood 1 and killed Winter with Metal 2

[Amanuensis he/him]

Ok, here are my actions for the first two cycles.

C1: Prtoected winter with wood 1 and killed Straw with metal 2

C2: Protected Lopen with wood 1 and killed Winter with Metal 2

 

o.O Wood1 and Metal2? What a lucky combo. Curious why you haven't been protecting yourself, though. And why you went for Winter on C1 and Lopen in C2 in particular.

Edited May 27, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Mailliw73 he/him]

o.O Wood1 and Metal2? What a lucky combo. Curious why you haven't been protecting yourself, though. And why you went for Winter on C1 and Lopen in C2 in particular.

Cause Metal I is a passive life.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Nice job, SD. I do think it would be a better idea for you to protect yourself with W1(even though you have an extra life), because it protects from roleblocks and redirects. Thanks for protecting me though(even though I was protecting myself as well)!

 

And thanks Hellscythe for figuring out that thing with Gamma's vote. I was being stupidly confused about that. :/ I may change my vote over to him later.

[TheSilverDragon he/him]

o.O Wood1 and Metal2? What a lucky combo. Curious why you haven't been protecting yourself, though. And why you went for Winter on C1 and Lopen in C2 in particular.

So I protected winter the first cycle because she pmed me, and I just protected Lopen for no reason.

I didn't protect myself because I hadn't done much, so the eliminators hadn't noticed me, but that's changed.

[Amanuensis he/him]

I already let Mailliw know what I did with my Fire last cycle. I left my vote on Phattemer, putting pressure on him in the thread, but I really kept it on there to see if anybody would try swaying the vote last minute in favor or against Phatt. Like Conquest throwing a vote on Phatt very late in the thread. So I'd like to hear more about that.

 

The lynch is one of the most important parts of the game, so it would be useless to switch my vote to cause no lynch, as that literally gets us nowhere as villagers. So once it was clear that Phatt wasn't being saved from the lynch by anybody, I figured he was pretty safe and switched the vote to Burnt.

 

I take it that means Mailliw PM'd you, yeah? In that case I suppose I can understand that and I'm less concerned about your alignment.

 

So I protected winter the first cycle because she pmed me, and I just protected Lopen for no reason.

I didn't protect myself because I hadn't done much, so the eliminators hadn't noticed me, but that's changed.

 

She PM'd you and Joe? Did anyone else receive PMs from Winter? I know she had T1 Air and Water, but I'm wondering which element she used on you. Did you happen to tell her about your second element/tier?

[Mailliw73 he/him]

She used Water on Silver C1 and Water on me C2. Air on Joe C1 and Phatt C2. 

[TheSilverDragon he/him]

 

She PM'd you and Joe? Did anyone else receive PMs from Winter? I know she had T1 Air and Water, but I'm wondering which element she used on you. Did you happen to tell her about your second element/tier?

Apparently. No, she didn't say which one, and no, I didn't tell her anything really. She just PMed me and asked about protection. Nothing else besides that. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

She used Water on Silver C1 and Water on me C2. Air on Joe C1 and Phatt C2. 

 

So theoretically this should clear all the players involved. Unless someone counterclaims Silver he is very likely good, and we already know Phatt is. I wonder why she PM'd him only to have him killed, though? Wait, so how was Winter a middle(wo)man between Joe and Mailliw then? Did you PM her?

 

EDIT: Nvm that nonsense happened C2. Carry on.

Edited May 27, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Hellscythe he/him]

Um. Does anyone have a PM with cloudjumper or is he just making the eliminator kills and spying on PM's?

 

Edit: Lopen what's your secondary fury?

Edited May 27, 2016 by Hellscythe

[Conquestor he/him]

Gamma, I put a vote on Phatt because he seemed the most suspicious at the time. He proposed a plan that would be counter productive to the villagers, on the first cycle. I also had no clue about anyone else. Now the question is, why did you change your vote using your vote using manipulation?

[Seonid he/him]

I PMed Burnt C1. I'm only T1 Air, T1 Metal, so I didn't have a second action to put in. I'd have liked to have kept my second life a secret, but accounting for everyone's actions is more important. C2 I PMed Araris - mostly because I didn't have any particular inclinations towards anyone in particular, and all the people who requested PMs with me are dead

 

So I picked Araris because his name is appropriately thematic.

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Gamma, I put a vote on Phatt because he seemed the most suspicious at the time. He proposed a plan that would be counter productive to the villagers, on the first cycle. I also had no clue about anyone else. Now the question is, why did you change your vote using your vote using manipulation?

 

 

I had already explained why I switched my vote with Fire1 here, when I asked you to respond. I was suspicious of Phatt as well, hence the vote, but as the cycle kept going it didn't really look like anybody had tried defending Phatt, or charging the vote in any other direction, so I was a lot less suspicious of him. Reason why I switched my vote with Fire instead of in thread was so the vote wouldn't be swayed by any Traitor F1 manipulation in case they had it, I'd rather have dictated the lynch than let them sneak it in. While I realize now it basically accomplished exactly that, I thought that was the best move to make at the time.

I've only been in contact with Mailliw the whole game, he has been the only person to PM me this whole time. And I'm obviously not just going to trust him implicitly, so I decided to use my powers how I best thought they should be used. I don't really have the luxury of a secret PM group dictating my actions for me, so I'm going to make mistakes. My bad?

 

I'm starting to be really skeptical of all these PMs flying around, especially with Winter being in so many of them. I honestly don't think we should just clear anybody simply for the fact Winter PMd them. Yeah, they wouldnt really do that if they had an Eliminator doc to talk in.... but that's also the expected move. So why not create a huge public display of PM'ing chaos and the talks of middlemen, etc to lay down a false trail? Just saying, we shouldn't give somebody complete trust just simply based off of that fact alone. #UrbainParanoia

 

As far as my main suspicions and thread analysis, I'll get to that a bit later whenever I can. Gotta go start putting in a stormload of applications for a new job online before I can do anything else.

 

[Bugsy he/him]

Also Bugsy did you kill Winter?

Wish I could claim credit for that, but I only have T1 metal along with T1 water. It really limits the actions I can do, unfortunately.

 

Some more notes: last cycle I narrowed down whose actions hadn't been accounted for and who could've made the eliminator kill the first cycle.

16. Gamma Fiend (Fire) - States feelings about the way the cycle turned out and Joe. Attacks Phatt. 0 actions accounted for.

3. Phatt (Earth) Claims 4 Tiers of different craft. Probably Tier 2 Earth.  - Infers he protected Burnt. traitors don't exist. unvote Araris

14. Burnt Spaghetti (Earth) - “I directed all actions against Seonid to myself so either I was attacked or he was.” - Was attacked by metal. 1 action.

4. DC  (Air) 1 action accounted for

15. Seonid (Air) 0 actions accounted for

12. cloudjumper (Air) 0 actions accounted for

13. SilverDragon (Wood) 1 action accounted for

 I'm not entirely convinced this actually gives us much information. With the eliminator kill having not shown up, it is possible they somehow forgot to put in the kill, or had to use all of their actions to avoid suspicion. It's also possible players could have lied about what actions they took. It's also not a complete list. I should technically be on there, since I only can use one action a turn between T1 metal and T1 water

Edited May 28, 2016 by Bugsy6912

[Seonid he/him]

It's also not a complete list. I should technically be on there, since I only can use one action a turn between T1 metal and T1 water

 

Does that make us limited action bros?

[Conquestor he/him]

Gamma , if I was an eliminator, why would I vote for Phatt if we were going to kill him this round? Also, if I were you and you are an eliminator, then I would kill Phatt using group kill and second, change my vote to a villager whom already had a vote on them. The fact that Phatt died this round and you changed your vote in a way that would not allow us to talk about it, is instantly suspicious.