Mid-range Game 11: Paradise Lost

[Water]

PK, I'll echo your suspicions of Adavantos and Hellscythe...not so sure about Lopen, but I didn't like his last post.

Ada, I'd still like an explanation of what Arraenae pointed out. You just dismissed the suspicion and never provided an explanation. My vote will stay on you, as you essentially just used your reputation of not lying about IRL to bluff your way past ever explaining yourself. That is extremely suspicious.

[Amanuensis]

I'm gonna come out with my suspicions and say that I'm suspicious of Adavantos, Lopen, and Hellscythe.

Adavantos has been fairly unhelpful to the village, which is very unlike his normal strategy of taking charge.

 

PK, I'll echo your suspicions of Adavantos and Hellscythe...not so sure about Lopen, but I didn't like his last post.

Ada, I'd still like an explanation of what Arraenae pointed out. You just dismissed the suspicion and never provided an explanation. My vote will stay on you, as you essentially just used your reputation of not lying about IRL to bluff your way past ever explaining yourself. That is extremely suspicious.

 

Alright, so, this is going to be a relatively big post. I've got a lot of ground to cover, partly due to me attempting to lay low early on and partly due to how busy I've been the past few days. To begin with, I will go ahead and address the above quote posts. Hopefully once you two understand my perspective your concerns will be assuaged.

 

First, me being "fairly unhelpful to the village." While I don't necessarily agree with that statement, I can offer two explanations for why it might be perceived that way. #1: I tried. Before you were revealed to be innocent by not one, but two Sori, I was suspicious of you, PK. Both cognitively and spiritually everything you did seem off to me. When it was revealed that you were good I backed off because I had been proven wrong. So instead I changed my target that cycle to the claimed Sori whom I was already suspicious of since the very first cycle: Kynedath.

 

Problem was no one other than Clanky was willing to lynch him. Most players supported the possibility of two Sori having the same target and let him go free. In the mean time what has Kynedath done? As far as I can tell, he has been PMing players, gathering information, and setting up codes right in front of the eliminators. And what have they done about it so far? Absolutely nothing. Instead of attacking him, a player everyone knows has a messenger bird, they kill Stink, whose blatant disregard for adding his code word to his posts until absolutely necessary spoke volumes about whether or not he had any valuable Aviar.

 

I want to seriously ask everyone here to reconsider everything knowing what we do now. Stink was a Sori who claimed PK was innocent. Thus PK is innocent. Okay, cool. We also now know that polkinghornbd was Water's Sori. Also cool. That's two players we can now ignore outright for the lynch. But do we know who still isn't proven? The third "Sori" who until last cycle has apparently managed to skate under the radar for both villagers and eliminators. Why?

 

If the eliminators were willing to confirm PK by killing Stink, why would they not use their kill on the player with resources? On the player with connections?

 

I suggest it's because Kynedath is evil. I don't have any concrete evidence for this, but please, hear me out. Doesn't anyone find it odd that he has lived so long without being attacked? Logically, there are only two possible reasons for why the Traders would have killed Stink over Kynedath: either Kynedath is on their team and doing so would be counterproductive to their cause or they are paranoid about hitting someone protected by Death Sight and wasting a cycle. I would almost agree with the latter if not for the fact that two cycles ago Elkanah was killed and it was revealed in the write up that his Death Sight Aviar was released to the wild. I am fairly confident that at least one of the players who voted for him to die were Traders that were aware of what Aviar he had due to power sensing. And you know who is on that list? Kynedath.

 

There comes a point in the game when you got to start killing the people with connections in order to understand other player's intents. I propose we vote to lynch Kynedath this cycle and if it turns out he is not a Trader than you all kill me next. I am willing to sacrifice myself to see it because nothing that has happened since this game began has made me any less suspicious of him. If it turns out he's good and you all see that I am, then I would say turn to Clanky, who was oddly quick to vote for him after I tried to get him lynched C2. But if it turns out that I was right about Kynedath all along we have so much to gain. All the players who defended him when I tried to push for his death could be considered to be Traders trying to protect their ally. All the players that he has PM'd up until that point can essentially be proven good because why would a Trader PM one of his own teammates when they have a doc to conspire in? It's been five cycles now, which means that if Kynedath is evil that's three confirmed villagers in addition to PK and Water that we no longer have to worry about lynching.

 

With the numbers we have now, that would be 6 confirmed villagers and 6 unconfirmed, one of which is me. There would be no way for the Traders to be able to outpower the vote because 3 of them would be among the 6 unconfirmed, making it much easier for us to spot coordination and manipulation. This plan is truly no different than killing a Seeker to confirm they are not evil, and at this point in the game is critical for us to consider.

 

You know what? Storm it. Kynedath. I can hide this cycle but I might as well not. My aviar is long gone. I only got one result out of it and it wasn't even that useful. I welcome the Traders to attack me tonight. Better that they spend their kill on me than someone with an ability to offer. If I can't get you all to listen to me now and do this then it's pointless for me to be alive. I'm not going to vote for a player I don't think is evil, so don't expect me to change my mind on this. The way I see it right now it's Kynedath or me. So you guys decide.

 

@Water: I will edit this post soon to include an explanation for what Arraenae addressed. My computer has to undergo a reset so it will have to wait about thirty minutes. Okay?

 

---

EDIT INCOMING

---

 

Long story short, Water, it was a ruse.

 

On Cycle One I intentionally did not use my code word [mystery] twice (I had actually meant to not use it at all but put it in my first RP subconsciously and didn't realize it until later). Instead I used the word connection and intentionally left a paragraph that I would normally write in blue as black with hopes that someone would catch on and point out the fact that I did not follow the OOC standard I usually enforce. It took a cycle longer than I had hoped but eventually Arraenae did point it out, allowing me to heavily imply that my codeword was in that paragraph.

 

My intent was to bait the Traders into guessing my false codeword so that I could steal their Aviar from them. Unfortunately that did not happen, however circumstances developed that forced me to reveal my role to the thread. Knowing that I was vulnerable to attack and that there was no way I could guarantee protection, I also revealed that I had an Aviar I thought using was worth protecting so that I could either get someone with Death Sight to protect me or scare the Traders into not wasting their kill on me twice in a row.

 

On the third cycle I claimed that someone had stolen my Aviar. This was a lie. I was actually Aviar roleblocked and mindshielded, and no one actually made an attempt on guessing my code word. I was so focused on the possibility of the Traders roleblocking the only ability I could use to gather information that I had ignored the possibility that the mindshield did not belong to them as well. So, assuming that the mindshield was friendly, I intentionally used my fake code word connection twice and used [mystery] only once. That same cycle my Aviar was actually stolen.

 

The amount of coordination it would require to recognize my trap, mind shield me to see how I would react, then accurately figure out what my actual code word was based on that information, I believe, is way too much for a single player to pull off without some form of personal messaging coordination. Maybe it's hubris, but I also would expect that whenever I'm playing village the only players who would truly try to sabotage me are the eliminators. As seen with PK's proclaimed suspicion of me, when I am a villager people anticipate me to be more involved and to make convoluted plans to catch the liars.

 

I wish I had a way to prove my claims but so far I have been undermined and outplayed. All I have to offer now is this plan of killing off Kynedath to confirm whether or not all the players he has PM'd up to this point are definitely villagers (if he's evil) or not. If it turns out Kynedath is good then I will be significantly more suspicious of Lopen due to the fact he also voted to kill both Elkanah and polking, and because of the plan he posted last cycle it gave the eliminators an opening to reduce our numbers without fear of being observed or kill blocked. An additional reason for why Kynedath could be good and survived this long is because he is being used by a Trader he PM'd early on and has been relaying information to him via codes. If it turns out Kyn is evil then Mailliw would probably be my next best guess at a Trader, as I seem to remember him coming to Kyn's defense around the same time he was revealed a Sori and I advocated we lynch him to prove it.

Edited February 8, 2016 by Adavantos

[Clanky]

I do still think that Kynedath is especially suspicious from the whole Sori thing back on cycle one but everyone else just seemed to agree that both him and STINK were good. My posts from al the way back on cycle two still stands about all of his posts seeming quite scripted and very calculated. While I don't really agree with Ada saying to kill me if Kynedath is good since everyone is wrong about lynches all the time and I think it might be a bit presumptuous to assume I'm evil because of that. Howevever I do think Kyn is my top suspect at the moment and if he is evil it will promote a lot more useful discussion then someone who has been fairly inactive recently, not that I'm talking about anyone specific. Cough, cough mailliw, I'm still expecting that more discussion tomorrow that you promised yesterday, hopefully that is still a possibility.

I just thought i could easily take a look at something like that.

 

MR8 was a bit of an exception, and in MR9 that was purely for my role. I was accidentally killed early on in that game simply for a typo. The useless bit is more my sentiment than yours, although it's fueled by the accusations of lurking. This situation seems to happen at some point every game, with MR8 being a notable exception. I simply don't have the time to look over every post and draw suspicions.

I started with a Beautiful Aviar and lost it to Hellscythe.

 

Sorry if i missed something earlier but how do you know it was Hellscythe who took your aviar? Did he mention it in the thread at some point? especially

[Hellscythe]

Sorry if i missed something earlier but how do you know it was Hellscythe who took your aviar? Did he mention it in the thread at some point? especially

She along two other people incorrectly guessed my code cycle one.

[Amanuensis]

I do still think that Kynedath is especially suspicious from the whole Sori thing back on cycle one but everyone else just seemed to agree that both him and STINK were good. My posts from al the way back on cycle two still stands about all of his posts seeming quite scripted and very calculated. While I don't really agree with Ada saying to kill me if Kynedath is good since everyone is wrong about lynches all the time and I think it might be a bit presumptuous to assume I'm evil because of that. Howevever I do think Kyn is my top suspect at the moment and if he is evil it will promote a lot more useful discussion then someone who has been fairly inactive recently, not that I'm talking about anyone specific. Cough, cough mailliw, I'm still expecting that more discussion tomorrow that you promised yesterday, hopefully that is still a possibility.ecially

 

Emphasis mine.

 

My concern about you, Clanky, is that I am always wary whenever people seem to just follow my example without questioning my intent. I tend to read that as them being privy to having more information than I do, which that early on in the game suggests that you're evil. If Kyn is good then lynching him bypasses any concerns the Traders would have regarding protection, which is why if it turns out I'm wrong about him I would be suspicious of you for cementing the idea of killing him by adding the second vote. Does that make sense?

 

EDIT FOR VOTE TALLY

 

(2) Kynedath: Adavantos, Clanky,

(1) Hellscythe: Paranoid King,

(1) Elbereth: Hellscythe, 

(1) Ripple: Lopen, 

(1) Mailliw: Ripple, 

(1) Adavantos: Water, 

 

I don't expect people to trust me. I have done nothing to earn it except for the possibility that I was attacked C1 and maybe on C3 (though I'm not convinced that's what happened and have another theory). But as I said before, I'm not willing to kill a player I am not certain of being evil unless we gain some sort of advantage in doing so. And right now I believe that no matter what alignment Kyn ends up having the village has something to gain for his death.

Edited February 8, 2016 by Adavantos

[Clanky]

She along two other people incorrectly guessed my code cycle one.

Ah, that makes sense. The way she worded it made me think that you had guessed her code not the other way around. 

just thought

 

 

 

My concern about you, Clanky, is that I am always wary whenever people seem to just follow my example without questioning my intent. I tend to read that as them being privy to having more information than I do, which that early on in the game suggests that you're evil. If Kyn is good then lynching him bypasses any concerns the Traders would have regarding protection, which is why if it turns out I'm wrong about him I would be suspicious of you for cementing the idea of killing him by adding the second vote. Does that make sense?

Sure I guess that makes sense, but by that logic everyone who ever places a second (or third, or fourth etc) vote is a possibility. I did state my own reasons back on cycle two as to why Kynedathand the whole Sori claim seemed off.  Anyways, hopefully it never comes to that.

[Water]

I don't really know how to say this, but Adavantos's big post responding to me felt absurdly off. It seemed like he went way overboard in pushing home exactly how "outplayed" he was in these seemingly ludicrous strategies. My original vote on him was a reaction test of sorts to see how he would respond, and now I'm almost certain he's evil. While factually accurate, the post is worded in a calculated way that tries to arouse sympathy and give off a vibe of a self-deprecating, confused villager.

I don't buy it, and neither should anyone else who's read any past games with Adavantos.

[Amanuensis]

I don't really know how to say this, but Adavantos's big post responding to me felt absurdly off. It seemed like he went way overboard in pushing home exactly how "outplayed" he was in these seemingly ludicrous strategies. My original vote on him was a reaction test of sorts to see how he would respond, and now I'm almost certain he's evil. While factually accurate, the post is worded in a calculated way that tries to arouse sympathy and give off a vibe of a self-deprecating, confused villager.

I don't buy it, and neither should anyone else who's read any past games with Adavantos.

 

My only response to this is this is your first game with me and posts like that are a pretty regular occurrence for me. See my LG15b post titled the Shallan Debacle and you'll understand how often I try to appeal to emotion because as a villager without any real power or information to offer it's the only thing I can do to rally my allies. It would be different if I wasn't completely PMless this game. At least in LG15B I could contact everyone and lay out "seemingly ludicrous strategies" beyond my own capacity. This game I did the only thing I could, and something I'm known to do when I'm a villager without an ability: play mind games with the eliminators and analyze the thread for clues.

[TheMightyLopen]

The problem with trying to lynch Ada this Cycle is that he can hide himself and block the lynch if he's an eliminator.

 

If we lynch Kynedath, Ada needs to keep his vote on someone and use his Hidden ability. That way, if Kynedath turns out loyal, we have the option to lynch Ada if we want. Although the problem with this is that if he is an eliminator, he will just not use his ability this Cycle, and we'll have to either decide to lynch him twice in order to kill him, or try to take out someone else who we think is an eliminator.

 

As for Kynedath, I'm sorry dude, but I have my doubts about you. I feel like you "trusted" me too fast and too much. It's possible you feel that way because I stood up for you when you were a target for the lynch, but I'm just not sure. The biggest thing in my mind that pointed to your innocence is that you claimed Sori to someone who actually had a Sori, making it seem like it was not a coincidence, and that the GM's had done that, rather than you just happening to pick someone to try and manipulate who actually had a Sori. But now I'm less certain.

[Mailliw73]

If it turns out Kyn is evil then Mailliw would probably be my next best guess at a Trader, as I seem to remember him coming to Kyn's defense around the same time he was revealed a Sori and I advocated we lynch him to prove it.

I did? I don't quite recall that... 

 

Kynedath. I'd also like confirmation on your alignment. And if Ada does Hide, then we need more votes on you regardless. I'm still wary of Ripple's strange tunnel on me. How am I the only suspicion you have after 5 cycles? What have I done? Ripple, Kyne, and then Clanky or maybe Lopen.

[Kynedath]

First, me being "fairly unhelpful to the village." While I don't necessarily agree with that statement, I can offer two explanations for why it might be perceived that way. #1: I tried. Before you were revealed to be innocent by not one, but two Sori, I was suspicious of you, PK. Both cognitively and spiritually everything you did seem off to me. When it was revealed that you were good I backed off because I had been proven wrong. So instead I changed my target that cycle to the claimed Sori whom I was already suspicious of since the very first cycle: Kynedath.

Just curious, but why were you suspicious of me from cycle 1? Just wondering.

 

Problem was no one other than Clanky was willing to lynch him. Most players supported the possibility of two Sori having the same target and let him go free. In the mean time what has Kynedath done? As far as I can tell, he has been PMing players, gathering information, and setting up codes right in front of the eliminators. And what have they done about it so far? Absolutely nothing. Instead of attacking him, a player everyone knows has a messenger bird, they kill Stink, whose blatant disregard for adding his code word to his posts until absolutely necessary spoke volumes about whether or not he had any valuable Aviar.

I don't know why I am not dead, but I do know that I am glad to be alive. I haven't been able to live during two games at once for more than a single cycle, so I am hoping that this and LG17 are the turning point. But anyways, if you think back to cycles 1 & 3, there were no eliminator kills. Maybe they tried to kill me on cycle 3 and found me protected. Unlikely, but it is possible. If that were the case, then maybe they thought that I would have protection later on in the game as well. If there is anyone that protected me that cycle, could you please come forward and say it. Then again, maybe it was elkanah. We know that he had a death sight aviar, so it might be possible that he protected me and wasn't able to tell anybody. Another possibility, I was framed. Maybe the eliminators thought that this would happen and they wouldn't even have to do anything to kill me. Again, I don't know what might have happened, but I do know that I am not an eliminator.

 

I want to seriously ask everyone here to reconsider everything knowing what we do now. Stink was a Sori who claimed PK was innocent. Thus PK is innocent. Okay, cool. We also now know that polkinghornbd was Water's Sori. Also cool. That's two players we can now ignore outright for the lynch. But do we know who still isn't proven? The third "Sori" who until last cycle has apparently managed to skate under the radar for both villagers and eliminators. Why?

Yes, me and nine other people. So far, only two people have been cleared that are still alive. That leaves the rest of us that might still be eliminators. Besides, I didn't deliberately slip under the radar, it just happened. And I think that I know why. I have stated previously that I was planning on not using PMs due to my inexperience with them. This game was set up perfectly for me to gain that experience. I have been mostly focused on using my PMs with other people, rather than solely contributing to the thread.

 

If the eliminators were willing to confirm PK by killing Stink, why would they not use their kill on the player with resources? On the player with connections?

Maybe I had already PMed one of them, and they thought that they could milk info from me. I have been communicating with Lopen frequently, giving him information that he couldn't have gotten by himself. Then again, maybe they just did it to frame me. Who knows. Do you?

 

I suggest it's because Kynedath is evil. I don't have any concrete evidence for this, but please, hear me out. Doesn't anyone find it odd that he has lived so long without being attacked? Logically, there are only two possible reasons for why the Traders would have killed Stink over Kynedath: either Kynedath is on their team and doing so would be counterproductive to their cause or they are paranoid about hitting someone protected by Death Sight and wasting a cycle. I would almost agree with the latter if not for the fact that two cycles ago Elkanah was killed and it was revealed in the write up that his Death Sight Aviar was released to the wild. I am fairly confident that at least one of the players who voted for him to die were Traders that were aware of what Aviar he had due to power sensing. And you know who is on that list? Kynedath.

I have already stated multiple reasons for why I was left alive in this post. Among them, framed, info milking and accidental protection (that one is the most unlikely, but still possible I guess.), I am sure that there are more out there, but I can't think of them. Also, why are you so certain that there was just Elkanah's death sight aviar? There are most likely more out there, and unless it was passed on to another person, I have contacted one of them. I am not going to release that info myself, but if the person that has it wants to, then they can claim it for themselves.

 

There comes a point in the game when you got to start killing the people with connections in order to understand other player's intents. I propose we vote to lynch Kynedath this cycle and if it turns out he is not a Trader than you all kill me next. I am willing to sacrifice myself to see it because nothing that has happened since this game began has made me any less suspicious of him. If it turns out he's good and you all see that I am, then I would say turn to Clanky, who was oddly quick to vote for him after I tried to get him lynched C2. But if it turns out that I was right about Kynedath all along we have so much to gain. All the players who defended him when I tried to push for his death could be considered to be Traders trying to protect their ally. All the players that he has PM'd up until that point can essentially be proven good because why would a Trader PM one of his own teammates when they have a doc to conspire in? It's been five cycles now, which means that if Kynedath is evil that's three confirmed villagers in addition to PK and Water that we no longer have to worry about lynching.

 

With the numbers we have now, that would be 6 confirmed villagers and 6 unconfirmed, one of which is me. There would be no way for the Traders to be able to outpower the vote because 3 of them would be among the 6 unconfirmed, making it much easier for us to spot coordination and manipulation. This plan is truly no different than killing a Seeker to confirm they are not evil, and at this point in the game is critical for us to consider.

I can't argue with the logic, just the intent and the motivation.

 

You know what? Storm it. Kynedath. I can hide this cycle but I might as well not. My aviar is long gone. I only got one result out of it and it wasn't even that useful. I welcome the Traders to attack me tonight. Better that they spend their kill on me than someone with an ability to offer. If I can't get you all to listen to me now and do this then it's pointless for me to be alive. I'm not going to vote for a player I don't think is evil, so don't expect me to change my mind on this. The way I see it right now it's Kynedath or me. So you guys decide.

So what you are saying is that if the eliminators don't kill you tonight, then you are an eliminator yourself. That is your own logic my friend. You are without defenses unless you are targeted with deathsight, so you are a very tempting target considering your abilities in SE. Also, why is it just you and me? There are other players out here than just the two of us. It is still possible that you and I are both trappers.

 

I do still think that Kynedath is especially suspicious from the whole Sori thing back on cycle one but everyone else just seemed to agree that both him and STINK were good. My posts from al the way back on cycle two still stands about all of his posts seeming quite scripted and very calculated. While I don't really agree with Ada saying to kill me if Kynedath is good since everyone is wrong about lynches all the time and I think it might be a bit presumptuous to assume I'm evil because of that. Howevever I do think Kyn is my top suspect at the moment and if he is evil it will promote a lot more useful discussion then someone who has been fairly inactive recently, not that I'm talking about anyone specific. Cough, cough mailliw, I'm still expecting that more discussion tomorrow that you promised yesterday, hopefully that is still a possibility.

So you are just going to lay back and use previous arguments to carry you? And you want this to generate discussion, but aren't willing to create new evidence? Alright. I can live with that.

 

To be honest, even with all of my info gathering, I don't have a hard suspicion. All I have is a gut feeling towards Elbereth. Your posts seem off. I don't know what about them, but something wasn't right. I know that I have a bunch of votes from other people, but I am inclined to trust them. I can see why they think I am evil, even though I am not, and they are justifying themselves very well.

Edited February 8, 2016 by Kynedath

[Mailliw73]

Honor

Fool

Hope

Wise

hold

day

Ruin

Honor

Fool

Hope

Wise

hold

day

Ruin

 

Though I think Kyne might be a Trader, I don't think we should kill Ada next if Kyne is good. Ada, I do suggest you hide this cycle though.

[Amanuensis]

I did? I don't quite recall that... 

 

Kynedath. I'd also like confirmation on your alignment. And if Ada does Hide, then we need more votes on you regardless. I'm still wary of Ripple's strange tunnel on me. How am I the only suspicion you have after 5 cycles? What have I done? Ripple, Kyne, and then Clanky or maybe Lopen.

 

It was this post I was referring to. I had taken note of you providing an indirect defense of Kyn, which I usually find more suspicious than a direct one.

[Mailliw73]

It was this post I was referring to. I had taken note of you providing an indirect defense of Kyn, which I usually find more suspicious than a direct one.

Ah, that was just making sure people realized 2 Sori with the same Mentor was completely possible.

[Water]

It was this post I was referring to. I had taken note of you providing an indirect defense of Kyn, which I usually find more suspicious than a direct one.

I incidentally find an indirect accusation of Arraenae more suspicious than a direct one.

 

Ada isn't going to be attacked at this point. He's either a villager that the Eliminators are intentionally leaving alive to get suspicion accrued on him, or he is actually an Eliminator. He's clearly a high enough valued player that the Eliminators would have him dead if they wanted it.

 

Ada, I've heard of the "Shallan Debacle," as you say, and read it too. This tone and word choice I'm talking about is completely different than that. There, it seemed that you were genuine, even if you were using a very hard appeal to emotion. Here, I'm not getting a genuine vibe. I'm getting a "Oh people suspect me, why don't I use purple prose to try to convince them of my innocence" vibe. I don't know how much this holds true for others, but personally, I place exactly 0 stock in defenses that go "In this one other game in this specific instance, I did x, so look, I'm doing exactly the same thing again!" That looks to me like you were trying to make a post and either trying to rationalize acting a certain way, or specifically looking for an instance when you were good that you could try to emulate.

[Amanuensis]

I incidentally find an indirect accusation of Arraenae more suspicious than a direct one.

 

Ada isn't going to be attacked at this point. He's either a villager that the Eliminators are intentionally leaving alive to get suspicion accrued on him, or he is actually an Eliminator. He's clearly a high enough valued player that the Eliminators would have him dead if they wanted it.

 

Ada, I've heard of the "Shallan Debacle," as you say, and read it too. This tone and word choice I'm talking about is completely different than that. There, it seemed that you were genuine, even if you were using a very hard appeal to emotion. Here, I'm not getting a genuine vibe. I'm getting a "Oh people suspect me, why don't I use purple prose to try to convince them of my innocence" vibe. I don't know how much this holds true for others, but personally, I place exactly 0 stock in defenses that go "In this one other game in this specific instance, I did x, so look, I'm doing exactly the same thing again!" That looks to me like you were trying to make a post and either trying to rationalize acting a certain way, or specifically looking for an instance when you were good that you could try to emulate.

 

Didn't we already go over this a cycle or two ago? I think you are mixing up details again because I did not indirectly accuse Arraenae. I directly accused her, only to later retract my accusation based off of the way she responded to me and the lynch train that suddenly formed on her. I explained this all very well the cycle that she was lynched. Do you need me to link those posts to you?

 

No comment on the second paragraph because I can't tell you what the eliminators are thinking, only make guesses (which I already did a long time ago).

 

I can't do anything about opinions and vibes. I can only organize what information I know and post theories based off of said info. I must admit that I find it pretty frustrating that the only two confirmed players this game are suspicious of me when I'm honestly on your side, but I guess there's nothing I can do to resolve that until I myself die. I don't place stock in defenses like that either, Water, but it's the only defense I have besides telling you that I am not a Trader. I would ask to get scanned in a heartbeat if that were an option, but it's not. I have given you guys everything I have. Give my plan a shot or don't, it's up to the majority, not me. If I end up dying this cycle to the Traders I'll at least know I didn't die in vain because I'll have known I've expended every resource I had and laid that information out for everyone to see so that you all can put the pieces together.

[TheMightyLopen]

Water, I have been somewhat suspicious of Ada for awhile now as well, but we can't lynch him because of his ability(unless he doesn't have the "Hidden" role and the eliminators were just using a Mind Force Aviar on him whenever he needed to "prove" his role, but that is extremely risky because multiple things could go wrong with a plan like that). Also, there's the unexplained lack of kills on C1 and C3. We can't be sure he was attacked those times, but it does seem like the most likely scenario. I'm a little suspicious of him as well, but I think there are better targets who are more likely to be eliminators, such as Ripple or even Kynedath. Getting Kynedath's alignment can give us a clue as to Ada's as well, as I doubt he would try to bus Kyne as early as he was trying to do(though it's possible, because he did something similar to PK in MR10, but I don't think the situation is the same), so if Kynedath is an eliminator, I would say Adavantos would be mostly cleared. If Kynedath is good, that's different, but I still wouldn't be sold that that would mean Ada is a trader.

 

I feel like Ripple is playing up to emotions more than Ada is. I am fine with lynching either Ripple or Kynedath I think. For now, I'll leave my vote on Ripple, but I may move my vote over to Kynedath later if I think the vote gap should be bigger to block any shenanigans. I would like for more players to vote, as that can give us so much more information than any role really. PLEASE VOTE ON SOMEONE. I don't think it takes a ton of time to find a decent suspicion. Especially with Mind Force and Hidden in play, voting can be very helpful to know what's going on(it's not good for the eliminator to know who's Hidden so that they can know when they can kill someone, but at this point, I'm not sure if there are any other Hidden players, unless they did what I said as an eliminator and didn't use their abiltiy because they wanted it available to block a lynch against them). If there's no kill again, and we know who was either attacked or roleblocked so they couldn't attack someone, that can give us a lot of information besides just seeing who players are willing to vote against.

 

Edit: ninja'd by Ada.

 

Ada, you're not gonna use your ability? I will vote on Kynedath later if I need to.

Edited February 9, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[Amanuensis]

Edit: ninja'd by Ada.

 

Ada, you're not gonna use your ability? I will vote on Kynedath later if I need to.

 

I don't plan to, no. I'd rather tempt the Traders into killing me rather than someone with a useful Aviar. And if you would put your vote on Kyn I would appreciate it. I'm not sure if the two vote manipulations that have occurred this game so far belonged to the Traders or not, but as you said, widening the gap would be best just in case I'm right about Kyn and his teammates try to intervene.

[TheMightyLopen]

 

I don't plan to, no. I'd rather tempt the Traders into killing me rather than someone with a useful Aviar. And if you would put your vote on Kyn I would appreciate it. I'm not sure if the two vote manipulations that have occurred this game so far belonged to the Traders or not, but as you said, widening the gap would be best just in case I'm right about Kyn and his teammates try to intervene.

 

 

There has actually been 3 vote manipulations, and I was one of them. One on C1, where Ripple's vote was removed from Mailliw. Two on C3, where I moved Hellscythes off of SilverDragon and onto Elkanah, and another that was moved from Mailliw and onto Hellscythe. I personally think that the traders wouldn't use their vote manipulations that early though, so I would guess that it's been trappers moving votes(I'm a trapper by the way  ), though it's possible the 2 other than mine were moved by a trader Influential.

 

I'll move my vote if I need to. I'm still very suspicious of Ripple though.

 

I don't think it's a good idea for you not to use your ability, but oh well. That's for you to decide.

 

Also, a question to everyone. I know who all Kynedath has contacted, so should I reveal that information now? Or is there a reason for it to be a secret?

[Kynedath]

In my defense, a trustworthy spy is the one who will attack a known ally and a worthy opponent. I find it difficult to understand the offensive that is being held in the lieu of recent events. It is not me who is aggressive and ready to betray my beliefs for the game. I will spin this in a different light. A false trail has been laid to ensnare me and all who have proven loyal. An example is where I have made progress on the subject of necessary but objectable opinions. It will pose a great threat to all who attempt to save them, simply for a feud that was tacky and childish.

 

                                                                                                                                                                                          

 

After a bit of digging, I think that I can do one better than just a gut feeling. Elbereth, I'll be coming for you eventually (I hope) but for now, Maill. Your votes and suspicions bounce from person to person as if you can't decide which one to focus on. You have repeatedly said that you do not trust Ada, and yet you decide to trust him in this. Almost like you want to kill a threat to your eliminator team. You jumped on my lynch, like you wanted to be rid of me, but you couldn't until someone else (Ada) provided a good argument and a buffer for you to hide behind. Most of Ada's arguments can apply to you as well. Most vote manipulations happened around you. And, you have been extraordinarily quiet this game.

 

I rest my case (bad as it may be, it is my most solid case thus far).

 

EDIT: Ninja'd by Lopen

Edited February 9, 2016 by Kynedath

[Clanky]

 

Also, a question to everyone. I know who all Kynedath has contacted, so should I reveal that information now? Or is there a reason for it to be a secret?

I'm not sure why you shouldn't. There may not be too much we can actually gain from it since there's a possibility that their might be lies in their if he's an eliminator since there's the possibility he used the Trader kill instead of the messenger aviar and claimed to have just contacted another traitor so that you wouldn't know he actually didn't message anyone.

[Amanuensis]

There has actually been 3 vote manipulations, and I was one of them. One on C1, where Ripple's vote was removed from Mailliw. Two on C3, where I moved Hellscythes off of SilverDragon and onto Elkanah, and another that was moved from Mailliw and onto Hellscythe. I personally think that the traders wouldn't use their vote manipulations that early though, so I would guess that it's been trappers moving votes(I'm a trapper by the way  ), though it's possible the 2 other than mine were moved by a trader Influential.

 

I'll move my vote if I need to. I'm still very suspicious of Ripple though.

 

I don't think it's a good idea for you not to use your ability, but oh well. That's for you to decide.

 

Also, a question to everyone. I know who all Kynedath has contacted, so should I reveal that information now? Or is there a reason for it to be a secret?

 

Must have missed one of those three, then. I agree with your assessment that it's unlikely the Traders would use vote manipulations unless it was to save one of their teammates, so unless said manipulation saved someone's life in favor of another I would guess they didn't waste it just to cement a lynch.

 

I'll admit I have not paid enough attention to Ripple to say whether or not I'm suspicious of her; what are your reasons exactly? Was she inactive around C3? Because I have a theory that the reason there was no kill that cycle wasn't because they tried attacking me again but because there weren't enough active Traders to put in a kill order.

 

Because of my power I have already been unable to participate in two lynches. I believe the game is at a point where we can not afford my voice to not be heard. I am not afraid of dying (I have never survived a game as a villager and severely doubt I ever will). I think giving myself up to the eliminators so that our confirmed innos (Water in particular) can stop tunneling on me and analyze actual evils while simultaneously protecting players with Aviar still is too good an opportunity to pass up on. I would rather help us win the game then delay my death for a cycle.

 

I would probably hold onto that information until he's dead and confirmed one way or another so that we can see if anyone tries to lie about being contacted or not. But then again it's possible the Traders will attack you tonight so if you're the only Trapper who can confirm who he's PM'd telling us all now would prevent them from lying to the thread and saying that they were in contact with him. So it's up to you and what you think is best, I guess.

Edited February 9, 2016 by Adavantos

[Mailliw73]

After a bit of digging, I think that I can do one better than just a gut feeling. Elbereth, I'll be coming for you eventually (I hope) but for now, Maill. Your votes and suspicions bounce from person to person as if you can't decide which one to focus on. You have repeatedly said that you do not trust Ada, and yet you decide to trust him in this. Almost like you want to kill a threat to your eliminator team. You jumped on my lynch, like you wanted to be rid of me, but you couldn't until someone else (Ada) provided a good argument and a buffer for you to hide behind. Most of Ada's arguments can apply to you as well. Most vote manipulations happened around you. And, you have been extraordinarily quiet this game.

I rest my case (bad as it may be, it is my most solid case thus far).

EDIT: Ninja'd by Lopen

First off, where did everyone get the impression that I'm super talkative in the thread? Everyone seems to think I'm Stink or Ada. Definitely not. PMs are where I talk most. Since I've gotten one almost every cycle, I haven't talked as much here.

Second, yes, I've begun to trust Ada more this cycle.

Where do I flip back and forth between suspicions? Ripple has been the highest for a long time. You haven't ever been far behind.

[Elbereth]

Big post incoming! RP will be later tonight.

EDIT: Oops.

First, me being "fairly unhelpful to the village." While I don't necessarily agree with that statement, I can offer two explanations for why it might be perceived that way. #1: I tried. Before you were revealed to be innocent by not one, but two Sori, I was suspicious of you, PK. Both cognitively and spiritually everything you did seem off to me. When it was revealed that you were good I backed off because I had been proven wrong. So instead I changed my target that cycle to the claimed Sori whom I was already suspicious of since the very first cycle: Kynedath.

Um... You only gave one reason. I get this feeling that you were somewhat sidetracked.

I am fairly confident that at least one of the players who voted for him to die were Traders that were aware of what Aviar he had due to power sensing. And you know who is on that list? Kynedath.

If the list you’re referring to is the list of people who have power sensing, did I miss that? I don’t remember him ever claiming Power Sensing. Or do you mean something else? This isn’t entirely clear.

All the players that he has PM'd up until that point can essentially be proven good because why would a Trader PM one of his own teammates when they have a doc to conspire in? It's been five cycles now, which means that if Kynedath is evil that's three confirmed villagers in addition to PK and Water that we no longer have to worry about lynching.[/font][/background]

As Clanky pointed out, how are those villagers he’s contacted confirmed? There’s no way to prove that he sent in a different action and just pretended he’d PMed a teammate.

On the third cycle I claimed that someone had stolen my Aviar. This was a lie. I was actually Aviar roleblocked and mindshielded, and no one actually made an attempt on guessing my code word. I was so focused on the possibility of the Traders roleblocking the only ability I could use to gather information that I had ignored the possibility that the mindshield did not belong to them as well. So, assuming that the mindshield was friendly, I intentionally used my fake code word connection twice and used [mystery] only once. That same cycle my Aviar was actually stolen.

The amount of coordination it would require to recognize my trap, mind shield me to see how I would react, then accurately figure out what my actual code word was based on that information, I believe, is way too much for a single player to pull off without some form of personal messaging coordination. Maybe it's hubris, but I also would expect that whenever I'm playing village the only players who would truly try to sabotage me are the eliminators. As seen with PK's proclaimed suspicion of me, when I am a villager people anticipate me to be more involved and to make convoluted plans to catch the liars.

Okay, so you were roleblocked. Were you told explicitly “You have been targeted by a Beautiful Aviar” or something along those lines, or just “Your action didn’t succeed”? Because I’m trying to figure out if I could have been roleblocked, or if I just targeted people who were Hidden/Mind Forced.

I don't really know how to say this, but Adavantos's big post responding to me felt absurdly off. It seemed like he went way overboard in pushing home exactly how "outplayed" he was in these seemingly ludicrous strategies. My original vote on him was a reaction test of sorts to see how he would respond, and now I'm almost certain he's evil. While factually accurate, the post is worded in a calculated way that tries to arouse sympathy and give off a vibe of a self-deprecating, confused villager.

I don't buy it, and neither should anyone else who's read any past games with Adavantos.

I don’t get any kind of self-deprecating vibe at all. It sounds pretty normal for Ada to me: over the top and a bit overconfident.

But seriously, if anything that post decreased my suspicion of him. This is much more like him than any of the previous cycles. And if he were an eliminator, I feel that he would have made more of an effort to post and not lay low for the first cycles, given that he prides himself so much on acting exactly the same as an Eliminator.

So what you are saying is that if the eliminators don't kill you tonight, then you are an eliminator yourself. That is your own logic my friend. You are without defenses unless you are targeted with deathsight, so you are a very tempting target considering your abilities in SE. Also, why is it just you and me? There are other players out here than just the two of us. It is still possible that you and I are both trappers.

No, he’s not a tempting target for the eliminators at all, if you’re good. By his own argument, if you’re not an eliminator, he is. He’s basically painting a target on his back for tomorrow’s lynch. The eliminators don’t need to kill him. We’ll do that ourselves.

That’s actually another reason I trust him. His post is basically trying to trade your life for his. If he were an eliminator, he probably wouldn’t sacrifice himself like that just to kill one Villager.

To be honest, even with all of my info gathering, I don't have a hard suspicion. All I have is a gut feeling towards Elbereth. Your posts seem off. I don't know what about them, but something wasn't right. I know that I have a bunch of votes from other people, but I am inclined to trust them. I can see why they think I am evil, even though I am not, and they are justifying themselves very well.

And this in turn makes me inclined to trust you. I think an Eliminator would try to fight back against his accusers, but instead you’re pursuing your own suspicions and telling us who you suspected before you died and turned out to be innocent (if you are actually innocent and not just a very good eliminator). Edited February 9, 2016 by Elbereth

[Paranoid King]

Adavantos, you explained how your aviar were stolen, despite your caution. You had used your code word twice in only one cycle, and that shows someone was engaged enough to get your aviar. I think that person's more likely to be evil, because you're more willing to guess codes when you have a team to back you up. On that team, you need people dedicated enough to check through huge posts and possibly RP to find a code. Mailliw, Lopen, Clanky, and Adavantos are my suggestions for suspects.

my code has nothing to do with anger, violence, or warfare.

Now, I'm no eliminator, but I imagine that the first thing eliminators would do in the early cycles is to transfer aviar around, telling each other their codes so that those without aviar could guess codes without repercussions. In one of the first cycles, Mailliw was grumbling about someone stealing his Aviar.

Mailliw checks true for both those pieces of evidence, but then again, so does Adavantos. I suggest we lynch Mailliw first, and if he's good, we lynch Adavantos.

Hellscythe