Mid-range Game 11: Paradise Lost

[Mailliw73]

What? PK, might you explain what pieces of evidence I fit? Second, why if I'm good would you lynch Ada?

[Elbereth]

First of the Twilight, free of the threat of death by mind seeking predators, walked abroad in the full daylight, far from her home, for the first time since she’d come to the island. While sneaking about at night was all very well, she’d missed the sheer color of daytime. For that moment, it didn’t matter that she was alone in a jungle apparently determined to murder even more than usual, by natural means or by bringing death through other trappers. It didn’t matter that she still had a hold on her new bird by the narrowest of margins, and still had to treat it so carefully that it was like caring for a month-old baby in the middle of a jungle that ate humans. It was a fine day, and she was just very happy to be alive.

She was also very worried about new threats to her home, though. There’d been recent marks near it when she’d checked last night, human made marks. Her carefully laid traps were all fine, too. What would happen if she lost her home?

But all thought of losing her home went straight out of her head when she was suddenly attacked by--

Come back this time tomorrow to see the next thrilling installment in the series Twilight and the Jungle!

...I’m going to bed. And I’m probably going to regret that RP ending in the morning.

[TheMightyLopen]

Vote tally:

 

Kynedath(4): Adavantos, Clanky, Mailliw, Lopen

Mailliw(3): Ripple, Kynedath, PK

Elbereth(1): Hellscythe

Adavantos(1): Water

No-votes(3): Shallan, SilverDragon, Elbereth

 

Well, dang, I don't much like being the deciding vote here. I am suspicious of Ripple still, so her voting on Mailliw makes me less suspicious of him, but I have no idea why she's voting on Mailliw really, and I could see it as them trying to distance themselves honestly. Kynedath, well, he has been giving me information through our codes. Pretty freely actually, which is part of the reason I'm suspicious of him, because of how open he's been with information. He didn't name any Aviar, but he did tell me how much one person had. He's told me who he's contacted, and what Aviar he got from lynching Elkanah, but not from polking(although I don't think he had any?). He also told me what Aviar he has. I think I'd have to say I'm more suspicious of Kynedath over Mailliw, so that's where I'll put my vote I suppose. Ripple

 

I will not move any votes this Cycle though. I want to save my uses in case of a dire situation. I would ask for protection because of my role, but I'm not sure if I'd get any. Still, if anyone would protect me, that would be nice. At least now the traders have to worry about anyone actually protecting me.

 

Mind Force Aviar should be careful about affecting the lynch though. Just a warning.

 

I didn't notice Ada's edit in his post way back on page 1 until Elbereth quoted him. I guess I'll respond since some of it is about me. I'll edit it in.

 

@Elbereth, I was chatting with our GM's and they told me that you are not made aware of what type of roleblock you were targeted with, but that if you used your role or you voted, it should be clear. So either you were targeted with a Beautiful Aviar, or you hit players with Mind Force/Hidden affecting them. Also, it's nice that you did a pretty long post, but I must say I'm a bit disappointed you didn't vote after all of that.

[RippleGylf]

I really don't like the sudden lynch train on Maill. Kynedath, your vote change doesn't make any sense from my point of view. 

 

Sorry, everyone. This past week's been really stressful for me school-wise, and yesterday was just not a very good day.

[Amanuensis]

Um... You only gave one reason. I get this feeling that you were somewhat sidetracked.

If the list you’re referring to is the list of people who have power sensing, did I miss that? I don’t remember him ever claiming Power Sensing. Or do you mean something else? This isn’t entirely clear.

 

Sorry, the two reasons were that I did try but no one agreed with my suspicions and that I was trying to preserve to take advantage of my abilities without interference from the Traders. And no, I just meant that I was pretty certain an eliminator lynched Elkanah knowing he had a Death Sight Aviar, which they either would have learned via Power Sensing or Observance.

 

As Clanky pointed out, how are those villagers he’s contacted confirmed? There’s no way to prove that he sent in a different action and just pretended he’d PMed a teammate.

 

It's just how I look at things. It's possible he would have put the kill order in one cycle, but that'll just have to be something for us to figure out once we have confirmation about who he PM'd, exactly.

 

Okay, so you were roleblocked. Were you told explicitly “You have been targeted by a Beautiful Aviar” or something along those lines, or just “Your action didn’t succeed”? Because I’m trying to figure out if I could have been roleblocked, or if I just targeted people who were Hidden/Mind Forced.

 

I was told my action didn't succeed.

 

I really don't like the sudden lynch train on Maill. Kynedath, your vote change doesn't make any sense from my point of view. 

 

Kynedath(4): Clanky, Mailliw, Lopen, Ripple

Mailliw(2):  Kynedath, PK

Elbereth(1): Hellscythe

Adavantos(1): Water

No-votes(3): Shallan, SilverDragon, Elbereth, Adavantos

 

There is now a large enough vote gap without me that I can comfortably remove my vote without fear of my plan not being followed through. The reason I am removing my vote rather than hiding outright is so that the Traders cannot be sure if I used my ability unless they have spent an action on me, therefore forcing one of them to waste an ability.

Edited February 9, 2016 by Adavantos

[TheMightyLopen]

Well, don't have time to do any in depth post about my suspicions, and honestly, I'm not sure if I have in depth feelings about the players enough to post anything like that. Here's how I'm feeling right now though, just in case I die:

 

Lopen

PK

Water

Elbereth

Adavantos

SilverDragon

Hellscythe

Mailliw

Clanky(just cause I can't get a read on you dude, which is unusual)

Ripple(her vote change just now made me a lot more suspicious of her and mailliw)

[Eolhondras]

Aaaaaand the cycle is over!

Write up to come soon.

[Eolhondras]

Just the important stuff! Fun stuff to come later.

-----

First of the Morn (Mailliw73) was lynched! He was a Skilled Trapper!
Gylfie (RippleGylf) was killed by the traders! He was a Regular Trapper!
Citona Vinid (Shallan) was as careless as the island is dangerous! He was an Influential Trapper!

Mailliw (4): Kynedath, PK, Mailliw, Clanky
Kynedath (2): Lopen, Ripple
Adavantos (1): Water
Elbereth (1): Hellscythe

Edited November 5, 2016 by Alvron

[TheMightyLopen]

Just so everyone knows, I did NOT use my vote changing ability just now. I am about 100% sure that one of them was a trader though, since I know that there is at least 4: Me(trapper), Shallan(trapper), Influential who moved Clankys(???) and Influential who moved Mailliws(???). Needless to say, I'm very disappointed in how this all played out. Ada removing his vote, and I'm guessing one trapper moving a vote away from Kynedath and onto Mailliw. There are 9 players left now.

 

PK(Cleared)

Water(Cleared)

Lopen(Influential)

Adavantos(Hidden)

Clanky(???)

Elbereth(???)

SilverDragon(???)

Kynedath(???)

Hellscythe(???)

 

I'm going to call out Hellscythe, as I believe he may be the culprit for how many codes have been guessed and Aviar stolen. At the moment, I think the eliminators are Hellscythe, Kynedath, Clanky and SilverDragon. The one time Clanky has really been a force in the lynch was when SilverDragon was up for the lynch, and like I said at the end of last Cycle, I'm having a lot of trouble getting a read on Clanky, which is unusual.

 

Does anyone have any information they can share? I believe it would be wise to share it now, so that we can discuss the contents. It's most likely either 5:4 or 6:3, and I think 5:4 makes more sense personally. Regardless, I don't think we can have any more mislynches without losing. It's possible we can have one more, since I still have my Influential power, and I would bet that there is another player with an extra life(or Skilled Trapper), so we definitely can control the lynch right now, and we can still block the eliminator kill I think.

 

I'm sorry if my thoughts aren't totally coherent. It's almost 7am, and I haven't slept. I will do so now, and talk to you guys later. I will put my vote somewhere once I have slept, and most likely reveal what I know(like, ALL of what I know. I think I should decide about that when I'm thinking clearer).

[Kynedath]

I have information to share. I have lots of it. Hope you guys don't mind if I share it.

 

At last I checked, Paranoid King was influential with one usage left. He was the one who redirected a vote onto phattemer. PK got a beautiful aviar from lynching Phatt. After his accusations of me being a false Sori, he later disclaimed that he had a death sight aviar and offered to use it on me.

 

TheMightyLopen had contacted me the same cycle that I had contacted him. He has a messenger aviar as well. He is influential with one use left if he is to be believed. I told him about my role and aviar, not that it was much of a surprise, except for one part that I'll tell you later. We made a code and he said that he was going to guess someone's code and try to contact Maill. In our codes, I asked about Maill but never received a response about Maill. Just him asking about my info. 

 

The next cycle, I contacted Hellscythe. He automatically claimed to have two aviar that he did not use (forgot about them) and then went on to ask about which aviar I got from Elkanah's lynch. I will disclose that later. He then claimed to have a power sensing aviar. We had a small discusion about IRL stuff and I tried to contact water.

 

I contacted water because Polking had just claimed to be their Sori. Water gave me one response and one response only. Role: none Aviar: none. That is all that I have on them.

 

Me. Well. Here we go. I started out the game with two aviar. A messenger and a mind shield. After Elkanah's lynch, I received a beautiful. I did not get anything from lynching Polking. I am a Sori. I contacted PK, Lopen, HS and Water, in that order. Last cycle, I contacted Clanky, but was not able to do so. I believe that I was role-blocked.

 

Other than that, not much else. I hope you guys enjoyed this.

[Paranoid King]

I can confirm that I was influential. I have now used both uses and have no more power left.

I tried to guess someone's code and lost my death sight aviar, but I still have a beautiful Aviar.

 

I think Kynedath is good. I imagine eliminators would try to suppress that knowledge, rather than share it.

I think Lopen is evil, because Lopen is just that kind of guy.

[Water]

Adavantos. I don't understand why no one else sees this.

We have no assurance that he actually has the Hidden ability, and if he does, and is an Eliminator, it is rather imperative that we lynch him twice in a row.

Edit: Actual actual. That word is freaking hard to fit into sentences, but luckily, having no Aviar from the beginning of the game, I didn't really have to worry about hiding it.

Edited February 9, 2016 by Water

[Kynedath]

You know what, I think that I can see Lopen being evil. I have been giving him information practically the entire time. That would definitely explain why I didn't die. The eliminators were milking info from me. He said that he wasn't completely sure I was good because of how accepting I was of him, but he accepted me even more quickly. I think that he didn't want to vote on me early on because he would draw a ton of suspicion by trying to kill someone that he was seen visibly conspiring with through code. It makes sense to me for him to be an eliminator.

[Clanky]

I can confirm that I was influential. I have now used both uses and have no more power left.

I tried to guess someone's code and lost my death sight aviar, but I still have a beautiful Aviar.

 

I think Kynedath is good. I imagine eliminators would try to suppress that knowledge, rather than share it.

I think Lopen is evil, because Lopen is just that kind of guy.

 

So you had two uses of influential then. 

@Lopen did you also have two uses? 

Adavantos. I don't understand why no one else sees this.

We have no assurance that he actually has the Hidden ability, and if he does, and is an Eliminator, it is rather imperative that we lynch him twice in a row.

Edit: Actual actual. That word is freaking hard to fit into sentences, but luckily, having no Aviar from the beginning of the game, I didn't really have to worry about hiding it.

The thing is that if he is an eliminator and does have Hidden than lynching him will basically guarantee us a loss. Assuming there are 4 traders (hopefully there's not) that means there are only 5 trappers left. So if we fail this lynch and they succeed with the kill then it's over.

just thought

I am still suspicious of Kyn and all that vote movement makes me almost certain that there is a influential trader out there. The only influential we know of other than PK who is cleared is Lopen. So I think that there is a possibility that they are both traders and probably just hoping to split the vote between them to make a tie with what's left of the influential (if any is) or they are just planning on splitting the votes so the whole team can come on at the end of the cycle to all move their votes to someone else? I don't really know and since this lynch is of utmost importance I think it might be best for me to wait a bit to place a vote.

[Water]

So you had two uses of influential then. 

@Lopen did you also have two uses? 

The thing is that if he is an eliminator and does have Hidden than lynching him will basically guarantee us a loss. Assuming there are 4 traders (hopefully there's not) that means there are only 5 trappers left. So if we fail this lynch and they succeed with the kill then it's over.

If he's an Eliminator with the Hidden ability, the same logic applies later on even if we kill Eliminators with perfect accuracy for the next three days. So we should absolutely lynch him now. I personally think he's lying.

Btw, I accidentally clicked the downvote button instead of "Quote." Could someone upvote Clanky to fix that?

[Hellscythe]

I'm very sleep deprived so I'll be back to post for real in 8 hours. But in the meantime, I think it's a good idea if we knew what everyone's roles were now that it's a good chance we're going to lose this cycle depending on the number of evil left.

[Elbereth]

@Elbereth, I was chatting with our GM's and they told me that you are not made aware of what type of roleblock you were targeted with, but that if you used your role or you voted, it should be clear. So either you were targeted with a Beautiful Aviar, or you hit players with Mind Force/Hidden affecting them. Also, it's nice that you did a pretty long post, but I must say I'm a bit disappointed you didn't vote after all of that.

Oh, sorry about that. I meant to place a vote, but I forgot to by the end of the post, at which point I really just needed to go to bed and wasn't thinking about anything else. I promise to vote this cycle, though.

Elbereth, on 08 Feb 2016 - 8:39 PM, said:

As Clanky pointed out, how are those villagers he’s contacted confirmed? There’s no way to prove that he sent in a different action and just pretended he’d PMed a teammate.

It's just how I look at things. It's possible he would have put the kill order in one cycle, but that'll just have to be something for us to figure out once we have confirmation about who he PM'd, exactly.

But... how are we supposed to have confirmation on who he PMed? We only have his own word for it. Unless someone with Observant has been watching him the whole time, I don’t see how there’s a way to tell.

I was told my action didn't succeed.

Okay. So there isn’t a way to distinguish. Ah well.

If he's an Eliminator with the Hidden ability, the same logic applies later on even if we kill Eliminators with perfect accuracy for the next three days. So we should absolutely lynch him now. I personally think he's lying.

Btw, I accidentally clicked the downvote button instead of "Quote." Could someone upvote Clanky to fix that?

How does the same logic apply? Clanky's saying that we need to kill a diferent eliminator first even if he's one, right? Because then we'll have a buffer and be able to have a mislynch.

[Water]

@Elbereth

If Ada is an Eliminator, we will have to lynch him eventually. There is no "buffer." If there are four Eliminators (our only chance of winning), and we want to lynch Ada, no matter what, we will have to factor in the Hidden ability.

Cycle 6: Nine players. We lynch an Eliminator and the Eliminators kill.

Cycle 7: Seven players. Lynch an Eliminator, they kill.

Cycle 8: Five players. Lynch an Eliminator, they kill.

Cycle 9: Three players. We lynch Ada and he Hides. He kills.

Cycle 10: We lose.

No matter where Ada is in that list, he can still Hide. There is no "buffer." Personally, I think he's lying about having the ability.

[Elbereth]

Right, sorry. I forgot to factor in the Eliminator kill. Never mind then.

[TheMightyLopen]

 

I think Lopen is evil, because Lopen is just that kind of guy.

 

...No, I'm not evil(nor am I a trader ).

 

Yes, I only have 1 use left with my Influence.

 

The way I see it, if Ada is a trader, there might only be 3 traders, since the "Hidden" ability can block the lynch. That might also be a reason why no one was killed those 2 Cycles, because there were only two other traders, and maybe they either forgot to send in a kill, or they wanted to use Aviar, and act like Ada had been attacked.

 

I'm beginning to revise my suspicions with that in mind, because as I said before, I thought Ada's wording and posts were off. If Ada is a trader, I think the team would be made of maybe these 3: Adavantos, Clanky and SilverDragon. I'm not sure though, I've been wrong a lot this game.

 

If there are only 3 traders, then we will be able to lynch Ada twice without losing, since it would be 6:3 right now, and then 4:2 after we lynched him. If Ada is a trapper, then I would think the traders have 4 players though, so if that's the case, we can hardly afford to have a mislynch. I'll put my vote on Adavantos for now though, since I've had some suspicion of him pretty much the entire game.

 

I will respond to other thing later when I have the time and write out all of mine and Kynedath's code, so you guys can know what we said. The keyword is "take" if you want to figure it out. It's a Vinegere code or something like that. Luckat gave it to me when I contacted her on the second Cycle with my PM Aviar.

[Elbereth]

I wanted to say earlier, but I didn't have time (I wrote that last post during passing period between classes): Water, you're also assuming that we don't manage to protect from the Eliminator kills. We might not, but you should be aware of that assumption. Thus, waiting to lynch Ada could potentially be beneficial (if he's evil) because it provides more time to protect from an Eliminator kill.

[TheMightyLopen]

Another thing, if we kill all his teammates, he will have to either make the kill OR Hide. He cannot do both. So I think it's best if we wait to target him with the lynch. Adavantos

 

I still need to look over things more, before I decide where to place my vote. Once again, a player list(it just helps me put things in perspective):

 

1. Lopen(Influential)                          8. PK(Influential)

2. Adavantos(Hidden)                       9. Water(???)

3. Hellscythe(???)

4. Elbereth(???)

5. SilverDragon(???)

6. Clanky(???)

7. Kynedath(Sori???)

 

At least half of the players on the left are traders. I put myself there as well, since those players are the lynchable ones.

 

My PM's:

 

C2: Luckat(I asked to role trade with her, and she said no. She made a unique code that just me and her could use, and she also showed me the Vinegere code, so that I could keep in contact with the other players I PM'd.)

C3: Kynedath(We both PM'd each other actually. We both claimed to each other with everything that we had at that point(him being a Sori, and having a Messenger Aviar and a Mind Shield Aviar, and I claimed Influential and Messenger Aviar). After that, we talked a bit about the players, but not a whole lot, because he was busy, and then finally I gave him the code.

C4: I didn't PM anyone, because I changed a vote.

C5: Mailliw(We traded information as well. Him claiming to be a Regular and having no Aviar, and me what I had. Later on, he asked me to help him avoid the lynch, because "I didn't want him dying to the lynch." I questioned him about that, but he didn't answer. He also told me that he lost his Mind Shield Aviar to Clanky because he guessed his code wrong, and that 2 people failed at guessing his code. He told me he couldn't get a read on Clanky either. At the end, I said I was suspicious of Ripple for her vote change and he said "yeah, that was weird to me too.")

C6: I'll tell you all if you want me to I suppose. My Action did go through, so the other player I'm in a PM with can confirm I DID NOT change a vote this Cycle. Well, I guess it doesn't matter if I say. I PM'd SilverDragon. We haven't said much yet. I told him we'd need every player for the lynch and that I was hoping he was paying attention, and he said he kind of was, but that he had been busy and had gotten sick.

 

A couple responses to Kynedath. First of all, I've only ever guessed one code and that was Shallans right after her code was announced in the write-up. I didn't get anything though. I don't remember you asking about my PM with Maill. You asked me who I PM'd last Cycle, but I didn't answer you partly because I forgot to and partly because I had already told you the previous Cycle that I was going to PM Maill the next Cycle. Here's all the info he gave me in our codes: I asked him what aviar he got from Elkanah. He told me "beutifliwasrobd" so, a Beautiful Aviar and that he got robbed? I assumed he meant that someone had stolen his Aviar, but his later messages made me think he was just upset that he got a beautiful Aviar, when Elkanah had a Death Sight one or something, I'm not sure. Kyn, what exactly did you mean when you said i was robd? Anyways, next I asked him about his PM with Hellscythe. He gave me this response "hsfegwithtwoavi" which I guess means "Hellscythe- feg(or he meant "reg" as in regular?)- two Aviar. Then his next message I couldn't understand. It was this one- "tnipumopidlfasp" which I translated as - "anylbmelpdbbhsf." So, yeah. Then he sent me a message saying what I had asked him, which was "wutupwithellpm" meaning what's up with hellscythe PM? I told him "thanks, I'll pm Maill now," since I hadn't been able to the Cycle before, which was when I originally intended to PM him. Last Cycle, I asked him who he PM'd, and he told me Water, and then asked who I PM'd(but I had just told him the Cycle before that I was gonna PM Maill, but I guess he may have taken that as meaning that I was going to send Maill a message, rather than actually start a PM with him). So that's it. The only info he gave me was what Aviar he got from Elkanah, what Hellscythe had, and who he PM'd last Cycle. I would've given him information, but I didn't have any until my PM with Maill, and at that point I was thinking about lynching him and was pretty suspicious of him.

 

Now to respond to your post where you vote for me. I'm not sure what you mean when you say I was quick to accept you. I didn't give you any information except that I was Influential. I gave you a list of my suspects/trusts at one point, but I posted that in the thread a few hours later. So I've never really been that trusting of you. Also, if I would draw a ton of suspicion from voting on you because we've been communicating through code, why would I vote on you last Cycle, but not earlier? I don't see how it's any different really.

 

I'm gonna try to do a complete game analysis on the 6 uncleared(to me) players left tonight sometime, since this may turn out to be the last Cycle.

 

Edit: I'm going to be editing in my analysis, since no one has posted since this post and I don't want to double post.

 

All I have to say at the moment is that I doubt that both Hellscythe and Kynedath are traders, because they both started with a Messenger Aviar I believe(as did I), and I very much doubt that the GM's would give the eliminators more PM's than the village. So with that logic, I would say that there's only one trader out of Lopen, Hellscythe and Kynedath. I'm not it by the way. Just thought you should know that.   It is possible that Hellscythe didn't start with a Messenger Aviar though, but rather he stole it. So, Hellscythe, did you start with a PM Aviar or did you get it through other means?

 

Anyways, on to analyzing.

 

Well, I hurried through things, and my suspicions at this point is that Hellscythe, Clanky, SilverDragon and Elbereth are the Traders. I can't really explain too well why exactly I feel that way. I'll try to a little bit though.

 

First of all, SilverDragon has basically been lurking throughout the game, except when he was up for the lynch. He hasn't participated in lynches or really done much in terms of accusations of players at all. So, lurking.

 

Next, Elbereth. Similarly to SilverDragon, she has not made very many lynch-affecting votes. She's done analysis and quite a lot of RP(which is what her character is, so understandable), but like I said earlier, she did a long post, but then didn't vote. She claims to have "forgotten," which I suppose could be the case, but I'm not so sure. I don't really have much evidence against her, but I don't really have much for her either. I feel like she's been avoiding drawing attention to herself.

 

I will finish this in a bit. Okay, here goes. I had some RL stuff to take care of.

 

Clanky. Frankly, I don't have a lot on Clanky, but reading through the whole game, I feel like he's connected with Hellscythe in his motives and if you'll go back through his posts, you'll find he doesn't ever cast suspicion on any of SilverDragon(the opposite actually, since he voted on Elkanah for his vote on SilverDragon, and was seemingly against SilverDragons lynch), Elbereth or Hellscythe in any way. Really, the only times he's aggressively gone after someone for the lynch was for Kynedath(on C2 I believe, and then last Cycle as well) and on Elkanah(for bandwagoning on SD, offering a different lynch candidate instead of SD).

 

Hellscythe. Like I've said, I believe he's the main reason that as many codes have been guessed as there's been. Again, like I've said before, I feel like he hasn't been as actively pursuing the eliminators as he usually is. He has stated that he might not be as active as usual because of RL stuff(posted in blue text, so it's the truth). I still think that he's been holding back though, letting the village kill each other. If you go back, you'll notice that he's voted on SilverDragon and Elbereth and left his vote there. So you'd think that if they're eliminators, he wouldn't be. However, I think he's shown a good enough ability to catch eliminators that he might feel he should vote on one or two of his teammates to maybe clear himself a bit. In SilverDragons case, I saw him viewing the thread later on when the votes were close, but he never said anything. Personally, I think it's because Clanky was trying to save SilverDragon, and whatever response Hellscythe gave at that point might have undermined his argument or cast suspicion on him later if he'd moved his vote. With his vote on Elbereth, he voted on her early on in the Cycle, but never pursued that suspicion for the rest of the Cycle, or even commented on the other candidates.

 

So there you have it. That's my conclusion. I will be voting on Clanky. I believe he may be Influential. Hellscythe has 2 Aviar(at least) and so does Elbereth(at least), so I imagine the trader Influential is either Clanky or SilverDragon. I would lynch either of them. I actually think they both might be Influential. I believe the traders have 2 Regulars and 2 Influentials.

 

I did do analysis on Adavantos and Kynedath as well, and while I had my suspicions against them for awhile there, I believe they are both trappers.

 

Adavantos: I think he may have been attacked at least once out of the two times there was no trader kill(C1 and C3). That shouldn't completely clear him I suppose, since it could be a WGG, but I highly doubt they would try that, since it would be pretty difficult to pull off, and why do it? There wasn't a ton of players in this game, so I don't think this would make a very good situation to try and pull it off. Also, with the way the roles seem to be distibuted, I think his role makes the most sense for a trapper. I believe the trappers had 1 Patji, 1 Skilled, 3(two of which had the same Mentor, so that it wasn't unbalanced against the traders) Sori's, 3 Regulars, 3 Influential, 1 Hidden and Water(who is a Regular I think?). While I wasn't a big fan of how Ada worded some things early on(I don't recall specific examples though), I don't think he's a trader.

 

Kynedath: I feel like the traders left him alive because they figured they could get him lynched by the village at some point(which almost happened). They really didn't have much reason to kill him in my eyes. He's been under suspicion(heavily from Adavantos, and the traders killed STINK) for some time now. I also think that's the reason Adavantos is still alive. So that he can push for Kynedath's lynch. Like I've said multiple times, I DO NOT think it was a coincidence that he and STINK had the same Mentor(PK). It makes a lot more sense to me that the GM's made it that way for balance issues(having 3 Sori's with 3 separate Mentors would make too many cleared players in case the Sori's died and the Mentors didn't). Looking back through his posts, I don't really see much reason for suspicion. Most of my suspicion towards him was because of my PM with him, in which I felt like he was too trusting of me. Now I just think he trusted me because I defended him from the lynch on C2(I think it was C2).

 

So, here's how I think it looks:

 

TRAPPERS:                                    TRADERS:

 

1. Lopen(Influential-1 use)              6. Hellscythe(Regular)

2. PK(Infulential-0 uses)                  7. Elbereth(Regular)

3. Water(Regular)                           8. Clanky(Influential-1 use)

4. Adavantos(Hidden)                     9. SilverDragon(Influential-1use)

5. Kynedath(Sori)

 

With these numbers, it might be a bit difficult to pull off the win actually. I'll most likely use my ability, but really, we need as many votes as we can get, PLEASE!!! I know I've been involved in some mislynches, but I've been doing my best each and every Cycle. I've done everything I can to help out.

 

I am going to try and steal some trader Aviar now. I don't care about my Messenger Aviar anymore, and I think we need to make sure they don't have any Mind Force Aviar(capable of cancelling a vote in this case). So if you don't have any Mind Force, Death Sight, or Beautiful Aviar, I suggest you try to steal either Hellscythe or Elbereth's Aviar.

 

Kynedath, I would like to make another Vigenere code with you so we can coordinate your Aviar use. I suggest going through both mine and PK's PM's with you and picking out a word that was used in both PM's and then making that the keyword, if that's not too much trouble. I figure it would be best to have PK in on our plan as well. Actually, you could add Water to it too, since you had a PM with him. I will PM Adavantos this Cycle, so that he will be aware of things as well(though it might not go through if he's Hiding), unless you guys don't trust him enough for that. I just think that we really, really need to work together at this point as much as possible.

 

Well, that was probably the longest post ever. I won't do a TL;DR since I want you all to read all of it.   (And I'm too tired.) Any questions? I will answer just as fast as I can.

Edited February 10, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[TheMightyLopen]

Sorry for the double post. I just want to make absolutely sure you saw that I edited in a bunch of stuff to my last post, and I figure the earlier you see it, the better. I'm off for the night. Talk to you all tomorrow.

[TheSilverDragon]

C6: I'll tell you all if you want me to I suppose. My Action did go through, so the other player I'm in a PM with can confirm I DID NOT change a vote this Cycle. Well, I guess it doesn't matter if I say. I PM'd SilverDragon. We haven't said much yet. I told him we'd need every player for the lynch and that I was hoping he was paying attention, and he said he kind of was, but that he had been busy and had gotten sick.

A

First of all, SilverDragon has basically been lurking throughout the game, except when he was up for the lynch. He hasn't participated in lynches or really done much in terms of accusations of players at all. So, lurking.

In SilverDragons case, I saw him viewing the thread later on when the votes were close, but he never said anything. Personally, I think it's because Clanky was trying to save SilverDragon, and whatever response Hellscythe gave at that point might have undermined his argument or cast suspicion on him later if he'd moved his vote. With his vote on Elbereth, he voted on her early on in the Cycle, but never pursued that suspicion for the rest of the Cycle, or even commented on the other candidates.

So there you have it. That's my conclusion. I will be voting on Clanky. I believe he may be Influential. Hellscythe has 2 Aviar(at least) and so does Elbereth(at least), so I imagine the trader Influential is either Clanky or SilverDragon. I would lynch either of them. I actually think they both might be Influential. I believe the traders have 2 Regulars and 2 Influentials.

I did do analysis on Adavantos and Kynedath as well, and while I had my suspicions against them for awhile there, I believe they are both trappers.

).

So, here's how I think it looks:

TRAPPERS: TRADERS:

1. Lopen(Influential-1 use) 6. Hellscythe(Regular)

2. PK(Infulential-0 uses) 7. Elbereth(Regular)

3. Water(Regular) 8. Clanky(Influential-1 use)

4. Adavantos(Hidden) 9. SilverDragon(Influential-1use)

5. Kynedath(Sori)

I can say I'm not a trader, but have been buzzy latelyy, with work, school and getting sick. I'm a regular, with. No aviar.

Edit: I can confirm that Lopen did pm me.

Point point

Edited February 10, 2016 by TheSilverDragon

[Clanky]

@Lopen. Wow you really don't have very much on me at all. So because of one post that was defensive of SD you have decided that me, SD and Hellscythe are all traders. Here is the post that he is talking about by the way. In that post I called out Elkanah and Lopen for some shoddy reasoning for their votes. The only reason SD was up for lynch at the time was because lopen said he was "supposedly lurking". That was the only reasoning he gave in that post even though you had time for a major discussion on a bunch of players that same cycle you couldn't think of a better reason than that. I think it was valid to question why someone was getting lynched based on someone saying that they "supposedly lurked" or that "there was a two vote bandwagon" on maill.

just thought think promote easily might

I will say that I do find it likely that SD is a trader who gave away all the aviar to teammates so he didn't have to worry about hiding his code and could just skulk around all game. However I think that you are also a trader Lopen, along with Kyn and I suppose Elb works best with that. So my main problem with this is that you chose me as the one of your trader lists as the one to try and lynch. Other than the personal reasons of not wanting to die this would be a troubling choice for a trapper to make. Firstly we need a consensus on who to kill today, we can't have a split vote. So you chose the player that nobody has voted for all game as the one you think you should try and kill? Instead of someone like SD who people have been suspicious of all game? However since as a trader you only need one more kill and have two more uses of vote manipulation left you only need to have the opinion split between players in order to win the lynch. 

 

Voting is key this cycle everyone, we need a consensus to have hope of even winning this lynch. I believe that Lopen is trying to split the lynch cause he knows that they can easily take over the lynch if we don't have a consensus. So please vote everyone. 

 

@Elbereth
If Ada is an Eliminator, we will have to lynch him eventually. There is no "buffer." If there are four Eliminators (our only chance of winning), and we want to lynch Ada, no matter what, we will have to factor in the Hidden ability.
Cycle 6: Nine players. We lynch an Eliminator and the Eliminators kill.
Cycle 7: Seven players. Lynch an Eliminator, they kill.
Cycle 8: Five players. Lynch an Eliminator, they kill.
Cycle 9: Three players. We lynch Ada and he Hides. He kills.
Cycle 10: We lose.

No matter where Ada is in that list, he can still Hide. There is no "buffer." Personally, I think he's lying about having the ability.

Also I was going to post this last night but I kinda forgot about it and went to sleep instead, I think it might have been said already but I figured I'd place it anyways.

 

Except the Trader kill takes up an action. So he can't hide and use the kill on the same cycle. Also In order for us to win we need one of the traitor kills to be blocked. If Ada has Hidden and there are four traitors left the best way would be to force him to use hidden when he is the last one left specifically so that he can't use the kill and has to hide. If we do that now a different trader can use the kill instead of Ada while he is hidden

 

@ SilverDragon: That post was decidedly unhelpful if you are actually going to change anyones mind about you being a trader you will have to do a bit more than that. 

EDIT: Somehow I missed SD saying he was sick/busy in RL, sorry about that. Hopefully you get better soon.

 

EDIT2: Vote Colour

Edited February 10, 2016 by Clanky