Mid-range Game 11: Paradise Lost

[Elbereth she/her]

Well, I suppose it doesn’t matter if I reveal now, given that someone storming stole (alliteration!) my Aviar. I had Power Sensing and Observant.

C1:

Observant- Phatt- not targeted (I mixed up what Power Sensing and Observant do- I meant to target the other way around)

Power Sensing- Maill- has a Mind Shield Aviar

C2:

Observant- PK- targeted by PK

Power Sensing- Lopen- has a Messenger Aviar

C3:

Observant- Lopen- targeted by Kynedath and Elkanah (note that this is the cycle that they began exchanging code, so this isn’t just Kynedath Messaging him)

Power Sensing- Ripple- No Aviar

C4:

Observant- PK- did not succeed

Power Sensing- HS- did not succeed

C5:

Completely forgot to send in orders. Well. I remembered, while lying in bed trying to get to sleep, but at that point I didn’t care enough to send in an order and probably disturb my sick (and cranky) sister in the process.

Then my Aviar were stolen.

A few notes. I’m somewhat curious what you targeting Lopen was, Kynedath, the cycle after you messaged him.

Obviously, I was blocked C4, and then apparently [x] was Hidden or Mind Forced last cycle.

Lopen, Hellscythe, were either of you Hidden/Mind Forced, or did I just get roleblocked?

Also, I’m a little irritated at the fact that I’m being accused of being an eliminator not really because anyone has any evidence against me, but just because I fit best as a fourth trader.

Okay, time for a vote. Everyone keeps saying that we need a united lynch this cycle, but for all that Clanky and Lopen are dividing the group (obviously more of that being Clanky, because he was second). You do both have SilverDragon on your lists, though. Why not lynch him, then? If you’re so set on unity? I’d be agreeable to that.

[Clanky he/him]

Okay, time for a vote. Everyone keeps saying that we need a united lynch this cycle, but for all that Clanky and Lopen are dividing the group (obviously more of that being Clanky, because he was second). You do both have SilverDragon on your lists, though. Why not lynch him, then? If you’re so set on unity? I’d be agreeable to that.

just thought

The reason I voted for Lopen was because he already had two votes on him. It's fine to have discussions divided. You can't just agree on everything then there would be nothing to promote discussion. All I'm saying is that when the final votes are set we hopefully will all be on the same page. I would be fine with lynching SD also but with lopen already having two votes on him (one by PK a proven good) I figured that was where most people were thinking especially since I think they are both traders it doesn't matter too much which is lynched first. easily

[Elbereth she/her]

Oh, sorry, I forgot that PK had also voted on Lopen. That makes more sense, then.

I do trust Lopen to an extent, though, so I'll leave my vote there for the moment. I should be on all day, though, so I can certainly change it if someone else seems more suspicious.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I can say I'm not a trader, but have been buzzy latelyy, with work, school and getting sick. I'm a regular, with. No aviar.

Edit: I can confirm that Lopen did pm me.

Point point

 

Thanks. So, since I PM'd SilverDragon, you guys know I didn't use my Influential power. Obviously this could be set up so that I could "confirm" that I didn't use my power, but in that case both me and SD are traders, so I don't think it makes very much sense to lynch me at this point(add to that fact that it will most likely be the last Cycle if I'm lynched). As I said before, I'd be willing to lynch SilverDragon OR Clanky.

 

1. @Lopen. Wow you really don't have very much on me at all. So because of one post that was defensive of SD you have decided that me, SD and Hellscythe are all traders. Here is the post that he is talking about by the way. In that post I called out Elkanah and Lopen for some shoddy reasoning for their votes. The only reason SD was up for lynch at the time was because lopen said he was "supposedly lurking". That was the only reasoning he gave in that post even though you had time for a major discussion on a bunch of players that same cycle you couldn't think of a better reason than that. I think it was valid to question why someone was getting lynched based on someone saying that they "supposedly lurked" or that "there was a two vote bandwagon" on maill.

just thought think promote easily might

2. I will say that I do find it likely that SD is a trader who gave away all the aviar to teammates so he didn't have to worry about hiding his code and could just skulk around all game. However I think that you are also a trader Lopen, along with Kyn and I suppose Elb works best with that. So my main problem with this is that you chose me as the one of your trader lists as the one to try and lynch. Other than the personal reasons of not wanting to die this would be a troubling choice for a trapper to make. Firstly we need a consensus on who to kill today, we can't have a split vote. So you chose the player that nobody has voted for all game as the one you think you should try and kill? Instead of someone like SD who people have been suspicious of all game? However since as a trader you only need one more kill and have two more uses of vote manipulation left you only need to have the opinion split between players in order to win the lynch. 

 

1. I didn't say that that one post was the only reason I was suspicious of you, SD and Hellscythe. I went through ALL of you guys' posts and I believe that you are all traders just because of the way you've avoided attention, and a couple small things that I think connects you guys. It's hard to get solid evidence against someone when they really haven't been a major voice in the thread. I gave a little more reasoning for my vote on SD in my analysis post you are referring to(and even linked to, so I would assume you read it).

 

2. I chose you OR SilverDragon as my targets(as I mention in my super long post), as I believe that the traders Infuential needs to die for us to be able to pull this off without any problems. I don't have two uses of vote manipulation left. Are you saying that the traders DO have two Infuential roles? Hmmm?

 

So, splitting the votes IS bad. I will vote for either Clanky or SilverDragon(or Hellscythe and Elbereth if you guys think that's best). PK, Water, Kynedath and Adavantos, I believe you are all trappers, so I would please ask that you all vote on one of these players. I leave it up to you because I know I'm under suspicion at the moment(not under valid suspicion I don't think, but it's there nonetheless), and Kynedath and Adavantos KNOW that at least one of those players is a trader. PK and Water, please, go through things, my posts, the other players posts, everything! We can't afford to get this lynch wrong.

 

I'm not exactly sure how the vote tally looks right now, but here's an approximation:

 

Lopen(3): PK, Kynedath, Clanky

Adavantos(1): Water

Clanky(1): Lopen

SilverDragon(1): Elbereth

 

I'll be back soon.

[Elbereth she/her]

Something I forgot to mention earlier. Lopen, how did I go from highest on your trust list (after you and the two confirmed), to a probable trader? What's with that?

I was starting to wonder if that would happen at some point, though, because in both games we survived near the end, you started suspecting me, even though we were both innocent. I had hoped that this game would break the cycle, but apparently not.

Also, I still think SD is the best candidate for a lynch right now. Because I’m willing to vote for him (I agree that that last post was not very helpful at all), and that way you can both test your assumptions on someone you both agree is evil. That makes the most sense.

EDIT: word choice.

Edited February 10, 2016 by Elbereth

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Something I forgot to mention earlier. Lopen, how did I go from highest on your trust list (after you and the two confirmed), to a potential trader? What happened there?

I was beginning to wonder if that would happen at any point, though, because in both games we survived near the end, you started suspecting me. I had hoped that this game would break the cycle, but apparently not.

Also, I still think SD is the best candidate for a lynch right now. Because I’m willing to vote for him (I agree that that last post was not very helpful at all), and that way you can both test your assumptions on someone you both agree is evil. That makes the most sense to me.

 

...I knew you were going to mention that.   I didn't actually suspect you in LG15 y'know. You suspected ME that time, but I did suspect you quite a lot in MR10. Anyways, you shot up the list because 2 of my top suspects died(Mailliw and Ripple), and because I went through the whole thread yesterday for the first time in awhile and I got the impression that you were trying to not draw attention to yourself by posting often enough, but not really being a force in the lynch very much. I did also have some small suspicion of you for a couple things you said earlier in the game, but I didn't write them down, so I don't recall specifically what they were. If there were only 3 traders, I think I'd put you as the one most likely to be a trapper, but I do think there are 4 and that you're one of them.

 

You and Clanky pushing to lynch SilverDragon kinda just makes me want to lynch Clanky even more now. Maybe Clanky has some good Aviar you don't want to lose? Or maybe he IS Influential, and you guys don't want to lose that?

 

Edit: I still hold to my word that I'll vote on any of the players I listed before though.

Edited February 10, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[Elbereth she/her]

...I knew you were going to mention that.   I didn't actually suspect you in LG15 y'know. You suspected ME that time, but I did suspect you quite a lot in MR10. Anyways, you shot up the list because 2 of my top suspects died(Mailliw and Ripple), and because I went through the whole thread yesterday for the first time in awhile and I got the impression that you were trying to not draw attention to yourself by posting often enough, but not really being a force in the lynch very much. I did also have some small suspicion of you for a couple things you said earlier in the game, but I didn't write them down, so I don't recall specifically what they were. If there were only 3 traders, I think I'd put you as the one most likely to be a trapper, but I do think there are 4 and that you're one of them.

 

You and Clanky pushing to lynch SilverDragon kinda just makes me want to lynch Clanky even more now. Maybe Clanky has some good Aviar you don't want to lose? Or maybe he IS Influential, and you guys don't want to lose that?

 

Edit: I still hold to my word that I'll vote on any of the players I listed before though.

I mean. When have I ever been a force in the lynch? (The end of LG16 does not count.)

The problem for me is that I don't suspect either you or Clanky, so I'm trying to compromise here.

I don't get the feeling it's working out, oddly enough.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I mean. When have I ever been a force in the lynch? (The end of LG16 does not count.)

The problem for me is that I don't suspect either you or Clanky, so I'm trying to compromise here.

I don't get the feeling it's working out, oddly enough.

 

Sure, I guess that's kinda true. I still feel like you've been less involved in things though.

 

Would you agree that it's likely that only one of Hellscythe, Kynedath and Me(Lopen) is a Trader? Because we all started with Messenger Aviar I think(I know me and Kynedath did at least, and I think it's pretty likely that Hellscythe did as well.). If that's the case, then me and Kyne couldn't both be traders(which Clanky is saying we are). So in Clanky's case, if he thinks I'm a trader, he should probably think that Adavantos is a trader as well, but that's not what he's saying. I think it's because Kynedath is under suspicion, so he's an easy target to say that you think he's a trader and not get any repercussions.

 

I've already said I'll compromise in that I'll vote for any of 4 players(SD, Clanky, Hellscythe and Elbereth).

[Elbereth she/her]

Sure, I guess that's kinda true. I still feel like you've been less involved in things though.

Would you agree that it's likely that only one of Hellscythe, Kynedath and Me(Lopen) is a Trader? Because we all started with Messenger Aviar I think(I know me and Kynedath did at least, and I think it's pretty likely that Hellscythe did as well.). If that's the case, then me and Kyne couldn't both be traders(which Clanky is saying we are). So in Clanky's case, if he thinks I'm a trader, he should probably think that Adavantos is a trader as well, but that's not what he's saying. I think it's because Kynedath is under suspicion, so he's an easy target to say that you think he's a trader and not get any repercussions.

I've already said I'll compromise in that I'll vote for any of 4 players(SD, Clanky, Hellscythe and Elbereth).

Okay. I was gone for a while, so I'm sure that didn't help any.

I can agree with that. I'm not necessarily convinced that that means he's evil, though. PK had some similar illogic this game, and he turned out to be confirmed good. I understand your logic, but it doesn't convince me of his guilt.

Fair True enough.

Edited for removal of a certain phrase.

Edited February 10, 2016 by Elbereth

[Clanky he/him]

Sure, I guess that's kinda true. I still feel like you've been less involved in things though.

 

Would you agree that it's likely that only one of Hellscythe, Kynedath and Me(Lopen) is a Trader? Because we all started with Messenger Aviar I think(I know me and Kynedath did at least, and I think it's pretty likely that Hellscythe did as well.). If that's the case, then me and Kyne couldn't both be traders(which Clanky is saying we are). So in Clanky's case, if he thinks I'm a trader, he should probably think that Adavantos is a trader as well, but that's not what he's saying. I think it's because Kynedath is under suspicion, so he's an easy target to say that you think he's a trader and not get any repercussions.

 

I've already said I'll compromise in that I'll vote for any of 4 players(SD, Clanky, Hellscythe and Elbereth).

 

Kyn is the one player that I have been suspicious of all game, I didn't just throw him in on a whim (which I may have kinda done for Elbereth cause I couldn't really think of who else fit with the other three). In fact my whole list is basically based upon Kyn being a trader. You and another trader who is also influential moved both the votes off of Kyn last cycle. Now that I think more about it one of the trader influentials could be out of uses by now if they did one of the earlier vote changes as well. 

 

Also why would it be impossible for the traders to start with two messenger aviar? It isn't the most powerful aviar and since you can't do the trader kill at the same time as use aviar that would also limit how much they would even use it. If it were death sight, mind force or observant I could understand but messenger isn't that important that the traders can't have two. 

 

EDIT: Lopen SilverDragon. I don't mind lynching SD instead as long as enough other people go along with it. 

Edited February 10, 2016 by Clanky

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Kyn is the one player that I have been suspicious of all game, I didn't just throw him in on a whim (which I may have kinda done for Elbereth cause I couldn't really think of who else fit with the other three). In fact my whole list is basically based upon Kyn being a trader. You and another trader who is also influential moved both the votes off of Kyn last cycle. Now that I think more about it one of the trader influentials could be out of uses by now if they did one of the earlier vote changes as well. 

 

Also why would it be impossible for the traders to start with two messenger aviar? It isn't the most powerful aviar and since you can't do the trader kill at the same time as use aviar that would also limit how much they would even use it. If it were death sight, mind force or observant I could understand but messenger isn't that important that the traders can't have two. 

 

EDIT: Lopen SilverDragon. I don't mind lynching SD instead as long as enough other people go along with it. 

 

That's true. You have been suspicious of Kynedath for the whole game.

 

PK, could you tell us if you moved any votes this past Cycle? I think it's important to say whether you used your ability or not. I assumed you did, because I know I didn't, but I guess it might have been two traders who did it.

 

I didn't say it was impossible that they started with two, just unlikely, with the information we have. So far, we only know of 3 players who started with a Messenger Aviar. Since the eliminators have a doc, and the villagers only way to communicate is through PM's, I would naturally assume that the village would start out with more Messenger Aviar, so, 2 out of 3.

[Hellscythe he/him]

Just in case I'm not back to post by the end of the cycle. Silverdragon

[Paranoid King he/him]

PK, could you tell us if you moved any votes this past Cycle? I think it's important to say whether you used your ability or not. I assumed you did, because I know I didn't, but I guess it might have been two traders who did it.

Nope. If I recall correctly, my ability was gone by cycle 3. I'm not on at the end of the cycle, so I didn't know when using it would be helpful.

[TheSilverDragon he/him]

I feel like there is a lynch train, though I'm not going to stop, mostly 'cause I don't have any good arguments. I also have a Question for Lopen, why did you pick me to PM if you thought I was evil. If I was, which I'm not, why did you PM to clear yourself?  

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Nope. If I recall correctly, my ability was gone by cycle 3. I'm not on at the end of the cycle, so I didn't know when using it would be helpful.

 

I see. I thought you'd moved one of the votes. Hm. So since I did not use my ability, that means that there is two more Influential players out there.

 

I feel like there is a lynch train, though I'm not going to stop, mostly 'cause I don't have any good arguments. I also have a Question for Lopen, why did you pick me to PM if you thought I was evil. If I was, which I'm not, why did you PM to clear yourself?  

 

I didn't think you were evil until this Cycle. The only Aviar I have is a PM Aviar, so that's the only thing I could do. I kinda was surprised you announced that in the thread though.

 

Darn it. Since it's pretty much confirmed that there's 2 Influential traders(and I'm not one), I think it's possible the traders only started out with 3 members. I just don't think that if SilverDragon was an eliminator, his teammates would be lynching him like this. At this point, I'm thinking that it's possible only Hellscythe, Clanky and Elbereth are the traders. Honestly, it would be nice if more players were getting involved, because at this point I'm not too optimistic about this lynch. Personally, I would like to lynch either Clanky or Hellscythe, but since I do think it's possible that SilverDragon is a trader and that this is some ploy, I will vote on him in a bit if it looks like there's no other choice(besides me dying, which I know will make us lose since I'm the one trapper Influential here with a use left).

 

I'm afraid the traders are just gonna lynch me last minute, so I'll change a vote from me to SD as well.

 

I'm not sure what's up with Kynedath and Adavantos. I thought you guys were trappers, but now you've disappeared. Maybe I was just completely wrong or something. You've both been on within the last couple hours, but haven't said a word. Of course, it's pretty much just been me, Elbereth and Clanky this whole Cycle, with even PK and Water not participating much. I don't know what to think at this point. Clanky, SilverDragon Figured I'd just do it now, what the heck.

[Paranoid King he/him]

Bah, humbug. I keep on thinking people are suspicious and then they're good. I don't think I can trust my suspicions anymore.

But at the same time, I fell like the thread is slowly and inevitably being steered towards Silver. And I don't want to go along with what the eliminators want to do.

So I'm voting for Clanky, as I have no read on him and am thus unbiased by my suspicions.

lopen, if clanky's good, I'm checking you next.

May the eliminators not violently murder us all. In violent ways...

Edit: fixed auto check. I don't think the word, "gerbilvlatz" is in websters.

Edited February 11, 2016 by Paranoid King

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I'll change my vote back to Clanky if we get 2 more votes that I think are gonna stay there and not get changed last minute(I'm looking at you Adavantos, Kynedath and Water. I still think you all are good guys, though the lack of posting has shaken that belief somewhat.).

 

I was also thinking we should try and guess Hellscythe, Elbereth and SilverDragons codes so they can't use beautiful or Mind Force Aviar against us. So I'll work on figuring out those and post them on here.

 

Edit: Elbereth did say she had hers stolen, but that might have been a lie.

Edited February 11, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[Water]

I'm literally a confirmed villager, cleared by a dead Sori. Thanks for the notes, Elbereth. I won't be changing my vote, as I suspect both Lopen and SilverDragon to be Traders. Adavantos, though, to avoid possible manipulation.

[Elbereth she/her]

I'm literally a confirmed villager, cleared by a dead Sori. Thanks for the notes, Elbereth. I won't be changing my vote, as I suspect both Lopen and SilverDragon to be Traders. Adavantos, though, to avoid possible manipulation.

Um, I'm confused. You suspect SD of being a Trader... and thus won't vote for him? Because that makes sense.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Yeah, we need as many votes as possible. Especially yours, because you're confirmed.

[Clanky he/him]

Bah, humbug. I keep on thinking people are suspicious and then they're good. I don't think I can trust my suspicions anymore.

But at the same time, I fell like the thread is slowly and inevitably being steered towards Silver. And I don't want to go along with what the eliminators want to do.

So I'm voting for Clanky, as I have no read on him and am thus unbiased by my suspicions.

lopen, if clanky's good, I'm checking you next.

May the eliminators not violently murder us all. In violent ways...

Edit: fixed auto check. I don't think the word, "gerbilvlatz" is in websters.

 

Ummm so because you don't have any read on me that makes your (lack of) suspicions unbiased?  I'm not sure how to respond to this..... ummm sorry I guess? 

 

Also the reason that the thread is being steered towards SD is because that is who most people are suspicious of and we kinda need consensus to have any hope in this lynch. By the way how is it unbiased to change your vote from your main suspicion to their main suspicion? Do you just suddenly trust Lopen now?

 

One more thing, In case you haven't noticed absolutely nobody has caught an eliminator yet not just you so I wouldn't be too hard on yourself for that.

[TheSilverDragon he/him]

I was also thinking we should try and guess Hellscythe, Elbereth and SilverDragons codes so they can't use beautiful or Mind Force Aviar against us. So I'll work on figuring out those and post them on here.

 

Mine is Point if any one wan't to check. I didn't use it the last two cycles though.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Vote tally:

 

SilverDragon(4): Elbereth, Clanky, Hellscythe, Lopen

Clanky(1): PK

Lopen(1): Kynedath

No-votes(3): Water, Adavantos, SilverDragon

[twelfthrootoftwo]

2.5 hours left!

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

To tell you the truth, I kinda think it's Adavantos, Clanky and Elbereth now. I guess we'll just have to see what happens, because honestly, I'm a bit lost at this point.