Mid-Range Game 10: Divided Loyalties

[Clanky he/him]

Also Paranoid King. I noticed you on the shard but you didn't deem it worthwhile to respond to Adavantos. Perhaps we need to make you sweat as you like to call it if we want anything from you?

 

EDIT: Vote Colour

Edited December 16, 2015 by Clanky

[Paranoid King he/him]

Paranoid King, on 14 December 2015 - 04:07

 

While I do agree that "spreading the joy" is necessary to prevent tunneling and instigate discussion, in retrospect I am getting the impression that you were trying to divert attention away from one of, if not both, of those players. By not specifically defending them while encouraging people to start looking elsewhere, you can potentially draw player's eyes off of them without directly implicating a connection to either one. Both players are considerably suspicious; Stink for his reveal and the fact that instead of pulling a vote from Sart to kill a known Runner an Ardent/Lightweaver decided to kill a completely unknown, and Hellscythe for his behavior throughout the course of this game thus far. Also, the tone in which you accuse Feligon makes me feel like you know more than you should. Why did you choose him of all players? I do votes like that all the time, but never without an explanation (I.E. Feligon, I see you viewing the thread but not posting. Are you lurking cause you're a Diagrammist trying to not get involved? If not, what are your thoughts?).

 

I suppose it could be seen in that light. My thoughts on first day lynches are that they are crucial because of the information they help us gather. We want information from as many different sources as possible, right? Well, we can't do that when everyone is focusing on two people. Those two people aren't giving us any more info. Why not spread the web out a bit, see how others react? I chose one of the first other people I saw and called him out. Am I suspicious because I'm trying to get more D1 info?

 

Paranoid King, on 15 December 2015 - 05:11 PM

 

This is the post that really tipped me off about you in the first place. Your explanation for why Stink is probably good is absolutely terrible, in my honest opinion. The only time he's ever been an eliminator is the short-lived LG15a, therefore we have no evidence to suggest how he would behave if he were evil. Once again this makes me think you're trying to protect him in an indirect way. Right now I have a theory that if you are evil, either Stink or Hellscythe definitely is.

 

I was trying to break a tie and get us some more info. I decided to break the tie in favor of Sart, because I've seen stink's playstyle. Stink plays like that in every game I've seen him in so far. I didn't see much suspicious in what he's doing. I didn't look back and see what Sart had done to make him guilty, I just assumed he had done something suspicious, and I don't know what his playstyle is, so I couldn't analyze it effectively. That, and I was short on time.

 

little wilson, on 15 December 2015 - 07:08 PM

 

The official vote tally; note that a vote was removed from Stink in order to kill Sart. Though we clearly have a couple trigger happy Cooks out there, I personally get the feeling that this particular Ardent or Lightweaver belongs to the Diagrammists. In a game like this a manipulator of votes is great for the eliminators. It's a balanced way for the GMs to give them an additional kill without specifically giving them a kill role. And the Ardent/LW going for Sart over Stink matches up with them attacking Venture. Either it's because Stink is on his side (I'm more inclined to believe that they're trying to implicate him so that we take our protection off him him / lynch him ourselves) or that in both cases they thought he would be protected. While they could have used both on him in order to double tap, they may have realized the odds of multiple players protecting him being relatively high barring better candidates and that it'd be better for them to go after two players who they believed would not be protected (or in Venture's case, for a WGG?). Plus if they did do that it would just about guarantee that they have an Ardent or a LW as a move like that is far too coincidental.

 

So here I'm protecting stink, then stink is protected later. Okay. that's a bit tenuous. You'll notice in your post soon afterwards, you say, and I quote: "I only voted for Sart to keep Stink from dying." And then you accuse me of trying to kill Sart. We need info from the first day, buddy! Those scholars should be doing something with their powers. I hadn't thought at the time about day/night being combined, and that the diagrammists would try to kill someone.

 

 

Paranoid King, on 16 December 2015 - 03:20 AM

 

So you'll respond to this post of mine but not the other directly relevant to you? While it's possible you didn't remember the rules quite as well as some, I think that if you are indeed a Diagrammist this is an attempt at causing confusion. Even if you really believed this it could still be a way for you to challenge my logic; after all, if you emphasize that I was wrong about a detail like this, then that could cast doubt into other's minds that I'm wrong about other things, too.

 

 

What post? Where - oh, you voted for me at the end of last cycle. There's your response, up there ^

Cause confusion? Not really. I was trying to clarify things. I was just pointing out that the assumption that both cooks are on one team is baseless. And I'm sorry your feelings are hurt. Adavantos is right about everything, people.

 

Paranoid King, on 16 December 2015 - 05:34 AM

 

Let's go ahead and assume that you are a Diagrammist and the attempt on Venture's life was not a WGG. The way I look at it you could be piggy backing off of my theory in an attempt to swing a lynch Venture's way in order to make up for your team's wasted kill. I'm curious how you came to that percentage, in particular. In LG15 we had a PM where you showed me the math in how you determined the percent chance of me being good, and it was relatively accurate. Can I see your math for this as well? Because otherwise it seems like you're just trying to commit enough of yourself into getting him lynched but not so much that if he dies and is revealed good than you can't just blame it on the remaining 30%.

 

All this said, I am less convinced of the Venture WGG, more convinced of either Stink or Hellscythe's guilt, and relatively certain that PK is the Diagrammist Ardent/Lightweaver - or at least is on a team with one. So PK, do you have a defense to all this?

 

Let's go ahead and assume I'm... not either of those things. I didn't calculate anything out because a WGG is based on people's motives, and I don't know what people's motives are. I just assumed that the chances of both the eliminator kill and a protect hitting the same person were relatively low. Here, if you want some math:

Assuming that both the eliminator kill and the protect are chosen entirely randomly, the eliminators have a 100% chance of hitting a target. The protector has a 2.7% chance of hitting that same target.

Assuming that notability is based only upon number of posts made, players posted 221 times last cycle. Venture posted once. So the chance of protecting venture for each party was 0.45%, meaning that both of them hitting venture is 0.2% likely.

Assuming that notability is multiplied by, say 20 when you claim a role, the protector has a 4% chance to hit the same target as the eliminators.

Assuming the chance of the eliminators doing a WGG is 20%, the ratio between those 20% and 4% means that it is only 20% likely that it is a coincidence.

So that means the chance of being a WGG is 80%, not 70% My bad.

If I were an artifabrian/lightweaver trying to save stink, why would I simply move the vote off of stink, instead of from stink to sart? It would earn me just as much suspicion, and kill someone, which is what I'd want as either an eliminator or a villager.

 

Also, I'm now done with finals, and have more time to spend on SE (in case you didn't notice from the length of that post.)

 

Edit: Un-greened Sart in my condemning quote of Adavantos. Sart can be blue now.

Edited December 16, 2015 by Paranoid King

[Kynedath]

 

I was trying to break a tie and get us some more info. I decided to break the tie in favor of Sart, because I've seen stink's playstyle. Stink plays like that in every game I've seen him in so far. I didn't see much suspicious in what he's doing. I didn't look back and see what Sart had done to make him guilty, I just assumed he had done something suspicious, and I don't know what his playstyle is, so I couldn't analyze it effectively. That, and I was short on time.

Wait, so you're telling all of us that you voted for Sart because you assumed that he was guilty and didn't even check to see if there was a reason why he was a diagrammist? Oh boy. If you just go voting on somebody because you don't think another person is guilty because of his playstyle in previous games, then either you know something else that you are not telling us or else you are trying to cause chaos in the factions. At that point in the game, if you knew something that we didn't, either you are a faction Leader or else you have been collaborating with others in private, which was only possible in the Dia doc.

Gathering info is great on the first day but the way you went about it, attacking someone already heavily under fire, is counter-productive in that respect.

 

Also, your statistics do not account for human psychology which makes the prospect of both a cook and a healer hitting Venture much more likely then your numbers indicate. The political maneuvring of the players is very obvious in this game and not accounting for it in statistics is either very ammateur or pointedly misleading.

 

I have more but I have a social studies presentation now. More to come later.

 

Mace Windu

Paranoid King

Edited December 17, 2015 by Kynedath

[Paranoid King he/him]

Someone needed to die! You don't get information from people until two cycles afterwards, due to the delay on scholars. We needed to get someone killed quickly, so that we could have some info by cycle 3. Stink wasn't that suspicious to me, so I figured we needed to kill someone else, and Sart was the obvious choice.

 

Of course my numbers are inaccurate. As I said before, I don't know what factors go into making a decision, but Adavantos seemed to want hard numbers, so I provided. And I'm assuming on four points, so my facts aren't all that hard, anyway.

[Aonar he/him]

Paranoid King. What made you think Adavantos wanted hard numbers? You pulled a meaningless statistic from nowhere, and Ada was really just asking you to back it up somehow. Which you couldn't. But rather than admit that the number was a complete guess based on basically nothing, you do some random math that appears to support your initial number while remaining meaningless, for reasons you've already stated. Why bother? It feels very much like you're trying to push the WGG idea without really being able to find evidence for it. And that, in my mind, feels very much like something a Diagrammist would do. 

 

Anyways, on the subject of the WGG as a whole, has anyone every heard of something by the name of Hanlon's Razor? No, it's not for shaving. It's a logical tool, and a corollary to Occam's Razor. It can be stated as:

 

"Never attribute malice where mere ignorance will suffice."

 

This, I believe, is a case where this may apply. While the events surrounding Venture's survival are a little strange, they can be more easily be explained by strategic error than intentional subversion. He, Maill and Stink were three of the most likely persons to be targeted by a Surgeon, and he had come under the least fire during the day, making him an appealing target. Obviously, the Surgeon thought the same way. Is it perfect reasoning? No. Does it have to be? Also no. Is it just as, if not more likely than the Eliminators wasting possibly their only kill this cycle to try (and very possibly not succeed) to get a Runner trusted, while also revealing that they had a protective role? Yes, certainly. (There is a third possibility I'm not considering, simply because it violates both Occam's and Hanlon's Razors. One in which the Eliminators purposefully wasted a kill against Venture, in order to make him suspicious, rather than trustworthy. This is doubtful, for what I hope are obvious reasons.)

[Amanuensis he/him]

Also Paranoid King. I noticed you on the shard but you didn't deem it worthwhile to respond to Adavantos. Perhaps we need to make you sweat as you like to call it if we want anything from you?

 

Wait, so you're telling all of us that you voted for Sart because you assumed that he was guilty and didn't even check to see if there was a reason why he was a diagrammist? Oh boy. If you just go voting on somebody because you don't think another person is guilty because of his playstyle in previous games, then either you know something else that you are not telling us or else you are trying to cause chaos in the factions. At that point in the game, if you knew something that we didn't, either you are a faction Leader or else you have been collaborating with others in private, which was only possible in the Dia doc.

Gathering info is great on the first day but the way you went about it, attacking someone already heavily under fire, is counter-productive in that respect.

 

Also, your statistics do not account for human psychology which makes the prospect of both a cook and a healer hitting Venture much more likely then your numbers indicate. The political maneuvring of the players is very obvious in this game and not accounting for it in statistics is either very ammateur or pointedly misleading.

 

I have more but I have a social studies presentation now. More to come later.

 

Mace Windu

Paranoid King

 

Paranoid King. What made you think Adavantos wanted hard numbers? You pulled a meaningless statistic from nowhere, and Ada was really just asking you to back it up somehow. Which you couldn't. But rather than admit that the number was a complete guess based on basically nothing, you do some random math that appears to support your initial number while remaining meaningless, for reasons you've already stated. Why bother? It feels very much like you're trying to push the WGG idea without really being able to find evidence for it. And that, in my mind, feels very much like something a Diagrammist would do. 

 

Anyways, on the subject of the WGG as a whole, has anyone every heard of something by the name of Hanlon's Razor? No, it's not for shaving. It's a logical tool, and a corollary to Occam's Razor. It can be stated as:

 

"Never attribute malice where mere ignorance will suffice."

 

This, I believe, is a case where this may apply. While the events surrounding Venture's survival are a little strange, they can be more easily be explained by strategic error than intentional subversion. He, Maill and Stink were three of the most likely persons to be targeted by a Surgeon, and he had come under the least fire during the day, making him an appealing target. Obviously, the Surgeon thought the same way. Is it perfect reasoning? No. Does it have to be? Also no. Is it just as, if not more likely than the Eliminators wasting possibly their only kill this cycle to try (and very possibly not succeed) to get a Runner trusted, while also revealing that they had a protective role? Yes, certainly. (There is a third possibility I'm not considering, simply because it violates both Occam's and Hanlon's Razors. One in which the Eliminators purposefully wasted a kill against Venture, in order to make him suspicious, rather than trustworthy. This is doubtful, for what I hope are obvious reasons.)

 

@Kipper, I think I understand how you felt during the Shallan Debacle, now...

[Shallan she/her]

... I'm not sure if it's good or bad that I have a debacle named after me.

But to more practical matters, I have read through the thread, and I probably won't vote today. I'm unused to no info on death games, so I'll take a lesser role for now.

[Paranoid King he/him]

What is with this bandwagon on me? Okay, I admit that that 70% was based on nothing more than assumptions and guesswork. So rather than deal with statistics based on assumptions, let me just say that I think it is more likely than not that Venture pulled a WGG.

[Hellscythe he/him]

Premeditated? My reveal was straight off the top of my head tyvm Ada.vantos

Although I admit that I had planned to claim today because I knew some people already knew my role and if that information got to a Diagrammist or one of them that knew was a Diagrammist I was completely screwed because I used my Exploring abilities last night.

But now I'm out in the open and hopefully there's a surgeon out there who has the heart and trust to protect me on my vulnerable cycle.

 

Also it was insanely obvious that Stink was the #1 choice to be attacked, I was #2, Mail was #3, and Venture was #4. With that knowledge I think that it was by far the easiest protection to protect Venture if the protector decided to put themselves in the shoes of a Diagrammist. You don't go for the obvious choice (Stink) but the least obvious choice (Venture). Personally I would've started by killing a less obvious choice but hey I'm not a Diagrammist I don't make these kinds of decisions. C'mon guys. You don't actually think that Venture was WGG'd do you. You can't be serious. It was probably the easiest protection I've seen in a game of SE of all time. Even I would've protected Venture if I was surgeon.

Edited December 16, 2015 by Hellscythe

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Premeditated? My reveal was straight off the top of my head tyvm Ada.vantos

Although I admit that I had planned to claim today because I knew some people already knew my role and if that information got to a Diagrammist or one of them that knew was a Diagrammist I was completely screwed because I used my Exploring abilities last night.

But now I'm out in the open and hopefully there's a surgeon out there who has the heart and trust to protect me on my vulnerable cycle.

 

Also it was insanely obvious that Stink was the #1 choice to be attacked, I was #2, Mail was #3, and Venture was #4. With that knowledge I think that it was by far the easiest protection to protect Venture if the protector decided to put themselves in the shoes of a Diagrammist. You don't go for the obvious choice (Stink) but the least obvious choice (Venture). Personally I would've started by killing a less obvious choice but hey I'm not a Diagrammist I don't make these kinds of decisions. C'mon guys. You don't actually think that Venture was WGG'd do you. You can't be serious. It was probably the easiest protection I've seen in a game of SE of all time. Even I would've protected Venture if I was surgeon.

You're basing your argument entirely off of an I know You Know. If Venture is the obvious choice for protection because he's the least obvious for killing, then the Diagrammists know that and so would choose to kill Stink instead, but since you know that, you should want to protect him instead, but since they know that you know that, they again go to Venture, and on and on. This is a pointless line of reasoning. Was Venture likely to be attacked? Yes, somewhat. Could it be a WGG? Yes, possibly. Do I think it'd be worth it this early in the game and on a player such as Venture? No, I don't.

 

And, by the way, the least obvious choice for death wasn't Venture, it was someone like Kynedath or Shallan or Bort. Those who posted, but only a bit, so that people couldn't learn much from their deaths. That's how I, at least, decide kills when I'm evil.

[Amanuensis he/him]

What is with this bandwagon on me? Okay, I admit that that 70% was based on nothing more than assumptions and guesswork. So rather than deal with statistics based on assumptions, let me just say that I think it is more likely than not that Venture pulled a WGG.

 

I agree that this many votes piling on you is suspicious, assuming you're not actually a Digrammist. And while I can understand some of the logic in your defense, overall it has not convinced me that I'm wrong about you. Maybe not all of my points are accurate, but I still can't help but feel that you're evil. That being said, consider this sentence right here a formal request that all players weigh in on what they think of PK. The more people who discuss him the better.

 

Premeditated? My reveal was straight off the top of my head tyvm Ada.vantos

Although I admit that I had planned to claim today because I knew some people already knew my role and if that information got to a Diagrammist or one of them that knew was a Diagrammist I was completely screwed because I used my Exploring abilities last night.

But now I'm out in the open and hopefully there's a surgeon out there who has the heart and trust to protect me on my vulnerable cycle.

 

Also it was insanely obvious that Stink was the #1 choice to be attacked, I was #2, Mail was #3, and Venture was #4. With that knowledge I think that it was by far the easiest protection to protect Venture if the protector decided to put themselves in the shoes of a Diagrammist. You don't go for the obvious choice (Stink) but the least obvious choice (Venture). Personally I would've started by killing a less obvious choice but hey I'm not a Diagrammist I don't make these kinds of decisions. C'mon guys. You don't actually think that Venture was WGG'd do you. You can't be serious. It was probably the easiest protection I've seen in a game of SE of all time. Even I would've protected Venture if I was surgeon.

 

First, I can understand you wanting to live, but look at it this way. It's very likely there are only 2 Surgeons and 2 Edgedancers in this game; a total of four protections. Based on the Diagrammist's attempt last night it's clear that they want to get rid of the Runners. Thus it's obvious that, for now, Stink and Venture need protecting. Right now I am convinced that the Diagrammists have a cook, and of the four I believe that theirs is the one that attacked Mail. If I'm right about this then clearly they wanted him to be attacked in a way that wouldn't implicate them in case he was protected, so either they were trying to feed into the fact that some people find him suspicious for his False Thaidakar Claim or they had some other alterior motives. For that reason I think it's worthwhile that he continue to be protected. That leaves one available protect left, and assuming that none of these four are a Diagrammist, do you really think they would choose a suspicious "Explorer" over players that are more likely targets for the elimiantors? Assuming you're not lying about not being an Elsecaller, your role is one that ultimately benefits yourself alone. Logically it makes far more sense for the last protector to save someone else who could potentially be a Scholar or a Radiant. Also, after thinking it through I'm leaning towards it not being a WGG. I think that unless anyone else has more to weigh in on that matter specifically we need to move the discussion along onto a more pressing topic; I.E. Is one of the Cooks a Diagrammist, and if so, which one? Below you will see my initial thoughts on each one and what their possible motives would be. As always, I ask that every player add their own thoughts to this situation as by talking about it we can observe more perspectives as a whole and perhaps find some evidence of a Diagrammist.

 

1. Mail: Several players expressed that no one target Mail this cycle because he was killed N1 in the last two games. If the Diagrammists were to use their Cook to kill him it could make us really begin to question some player's intents, especially if they ever end up claiming that role. Majority agrees that was cruel, and honestly if this Cook is the Diagrammist one then I would bet that they were either A: one of the players who agreed tha Mail should be left alone C1 or B: one of the players who reacted to it specifically, likely in a more exagerated way.

2. Arraenae: I'll have to look over her posts to see if she ended up pushing any people's buttons, but the first thought that comes to mind is that someone felt salty about Arraenae Mistborning them to death in LG15 and decided to enact revenge.

3. "Hellscythe": Already offerred my scenarious about this earlier. It's possible the person isn't a Cook but just on Hellscythe's team and thought this would be a good opportunity to soft clear him. Looking at his response to his role being discovered it seems to me that Hellscythe had his reveal premeditated. It's true that he could be an Explorer; but even then, it doesn't rule him out as being a Diagrammist. Considering how many kill roles are in this game I wouldn't be surprised if the Diagrammists got multiple protective roles, especially if they turn out not to have a Cook of their own.

4. No one: While I personally believe that Diagrammists would benefit more from killing players off from the start instead of waiting in order to commit the long con, it's possible that they decided to sit the first Cycle out in case a situation arose where they could claim they were the Cook who killed no one and become soft cleared for it.

Edited December 16, 2015 by Adavantos

[Elbereth she/her]

Someone needed to die! You don't get information from people until two cycles afterwards, due to the delay on scholars. We needed to get someone killed quickly, so that we could have some info by cycle 3. Stink wasn't that suspicious to me, so I figured we needed to kill someone else, and Sart was the obvious choice.

Of course my numbers are inaccurate. As I said before, I don't know what factors go into making a decision, but Adavantos seemed to want hard numbers, so I provided. And I'm assuming on four points, so my facts aren't all that hard, anyway.

Why do we have a delay with the Scholars? Why do we have to wait two cycles to hear back from them? Currently, we have no way of hearing from them at all unless someone gets lucky and PMs them, or if they have a position higher than Regular and they PM someone else about it who decides to act as the go-between. After that point, there'll only be a cycle's wait after someone dies.

Also it was insanely obvious that Stink was the #1 choice to be attacked, I was #2, Mail was #3, and Venture was #4. With that knowledge I think that it was by far the easiest protection to protect Venture if the protector decided to put themselves in the shoes of a Diagrammist. You don't go for the obvious choice (Stink) but the least obvious choice (Venture). Personally I would've started by killing a less obvious choice but hey I'm not a Diagrammist I don't make these kinds of decisions. C'mon guys. You don't actually think that Venture was WGG'd do you. You can't be serious. It was probably the easiest protection I've seen in a game of SE of all time. Even I would've protected Venture if I was surgeon.

You are really not helping your case there. Your post makes me think that it was a WGG more rather than less. With that said, I'm currently undecided on the issue.

Thoughts about Maill:

I don't really know why he's drawing suspicion for the list he put up. In my mind, that makes him less suspicious. Most people seem to agree that the Diagrammists already know most alignments if not all. While this isn't necessarily true (they could all be regulars and a few captains, or at least one faction could have Diagrammist only as regulars [though that could be a little unbalanced]), it's probably fair to say that the Diagrammists have much more information about faction alignments than the average person in this game, and they want to keep it that way. By posting that list, Maill did just the opposite- he made it so that anyone could figure out a good deal of the faction alignments. I can't see a reason for evil!Maill to do the same.

So there's that.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Adavantos.

Edited December 16, 2015 by Elbereth

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I agree that this many votes piling on you is suspicious, assuming you're not actually a Digrammist. And while I can understand some of the logic in your defense, overall it has not convinced me that I'm wrong about you. Maybe not all of my points are accurate, but I still can't help but feel that you're evil. That being said, consider this sentence right here a formal request that all players weigh in on what they think of PK. The more people who discuss him the better.

PK? The math was a bit sketchy, but I tend to skim over any math anyone posts anyways. The thing that makes me suspect him most was his vote on Sart, but his defense of that has assuaged my suspicions a bit. We do need deaths in this game, so that Scholars can check someone.

My main suspicions now are Hellscythe and Bort, who'd be at about 75 and 68, respectively, on a scale with 100 being most suspicious and 50 being of middling suspiciousness. Venture and PK are next in line at about 60.

I want to hear from Alv, Hael, Burnt, Lopen, Jain, and Orlok. Why so quiet?

Edit: I think this is accurate.

(2) Bort: Sart, Starry

(1) Shallan: Phatt

(3) Venture: Kipper, PK, Araris

(2) Starry: HS, Bort

(1) Mail: Ripple

(4) PK: Ada, Clanky, Kynedath, Aonar

(1) HS: Maill

Edited December 17, 2015 by Mailliw73

[Hellscythe he/him]

You're basing your argument entirely off of an I know You Know. If Venture is the obvious choice for protection because he's the least obvious for killing, then the Diagrammists know that and so would choose to kill Stink instead, but since you know that, you should want to protect him instead, but since they know that you know that, they again go to Venture, and on and on. This is a pointless line of reasoning. Was Venture likely to be attacked? Yes, somewhat. Could it be a WGG? Yes, possibly. Do I think it'd be worth it this early in the game and on a player such as Venture? No, I don't.

I know right? It's like going to Disneyland. You assume nobody is going to go today because that's what you heard. But what if everyone else is thinking the same thing and goes because nobody else is going! Then there's too many people! I've always had this problem every time I go to Disneyland.

Another random note: life was better when I was invulnerable from the lynch.

Unfortunately for you Mail your IKYK doesn't work in this case because I'm not putting the Diagrammists on the same level of intelligence as me. Gosh this guy is cocky and arrogant

So they wouldn't "know that and so would choose to kill Stink instead." and nothing would perpetuate.

Edited December 16, 2015 by Hellscythe

[Zas678 he/him]

I think that Hellscythe and Stink are acting more suspicious than PK currently. His claim that Venture seems like a WGG seems reasonable, and like something that he would do. I don't see a major difference between his usual play style and how he is currently playing. 

 

That being said, I don't see Hellscythe as a legitimate target for a cook, besides Elminators choosing someone vague, and Hellscythe's claim that she was #2 in obviousness is questionable to me. For now, Hellscythe.

[Paranoid King he/him]

Why do we have a delay with the Scholars? Why do we have to wait two cycles to hear back from them? Currently, we have no way of hearing from them at all unless someone gets lucky and PMs them, or if they have a position higher than Regular and they PM someone else about it who decides to act as the go-between. After that point, there'll only be a cycle's wait after someone dies.

Cycle 1: someone dies

Cycle 2: Scholar scans them

Cycle 3: scholar communicates info

 

Yeah, someone revealing that they are a scholar in the thread would paint a target on their head for the eliminators. Unless someone with a protect role were to protect them every night. Which I suppose is a viable strategy, considering that scholars are the only way you can figure out if someone is evil or not, and so may be one of the most important roles.

 

Should scholars roleclaim in the thread, or should they wait and hope to get PM'd? What's the general consensus?

[Hellscythe he/him]

Put yourself in a Sons of Honor, Cook's shoes. I could potentially be a Knight Radiant on the Ghostblood team. More potential than anyone else at the time anyway with such little information revealed. That'd be the reason to kill me. Statistically, at the time, I was the best option for a Sons of Honor Cook to poison. I need to do more exploring this isn't going well.

Edited December 16, 2015 by Hellscythe

[Zas678 he/him]

But the fact that you were an Explorer/Elsecaller was unknown on Day 1. It wasn't till Stink informed us that an attempt was made that you roleclaimed. Yes, you had a chance at being a KR, but from what I saw, you had the same chance as everyone else. 

[Hellscythe he/him]

Exactly. Nobody knew my role so therefore I COULD be a Knight Radiant on the Ghostbloods. And the potential for killing the enemy team's knight radiant would be almost too good to pass up. I actually had a greater chance than anyone else because nobody else had soft-claimed Ghostbloods yet. This post was posted at pi time. 3:14

Edited December 16, 2015 by Hellscythe

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Unfortunately for you Mail your IKYK doesn't work in this case because I'm not putting the Diagrammists on the same level of intelligence as me. Gosh this guy is cocky and arrogant

So they wouldn't "know that and so would choose to kill Stink instead." and nothing would perpetuate.

Maybe this opinion is why you haven't won a game in a while..? 

 

Never, never assume your enemies are less intelligent as you. This stands for anything. Any kind of game, battle, anything. People who underestimate their opponents tend to lose. If anything, overestimate your enemy. I always assume the Eliminators would do anything I think of. If I can think of it, they can too. Especially since they get to collaborate.

 

Put yourself in a Sons of Honor, Cook's shoes. I could potentially be a Knight Radiant on the Ghostblood team. More potential than anyone else at the time anyway with such little information revealed. That'd be the reason to kill me. Statistically, at the time, I was the best option for a Sons of Honor Cook to poison. I need to do more exploring this isn't going well.

No, you aren't. Unless our Cooks are going to focus on the Faction War as much as yours did, and if they do, we will lose. Focussing on the other faction is how the Village loses these games. Go look at LG4. Yes, it was broken, but the Hallandren and the Idrians worked together completely to find the Pahn Kahl. That is how this game should be played. Yes, I want your faction's KR dead, but that's secondary. If the Diagrammists outnumber us, it doesn't matter if the SoH have all their KR and the GBs don't have any, we still lose. That's the point. The best option for a SoH cook to kill was the person they think most likely to be a Diagrammist.

 

The chance of you being a KR was 4/18. That's just under 25%, but the fact that you drew so much attention to yourself makes it less likely that you're a Radiant. If you were, you wouldn't want to draw fire.

[Hellscythe he/him]

I'm actually 1 for 2 in my games tyvm. Also you're not considering the fact that the Cook is Creccio, or Creccio-esque. i.e. Lost and has no idea who or what the Diagrammists are. If they had no better leads at the time the obvious choice was me due to "the fact that you drew so much attention to yourself" - Mail 2015

Edited December 16, 2015 by Hellscythe

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I'm actually 1 for 2 in my games tyvm.

1 for 3. Or 1-2, if that's what you mean. Which isn't a horrible record, but it's also a small sample size. My point was that you should never underestimate the Eliminators. Go read LG9 or LG4 or LG1 or LG5 or any of the other games' evil docs really, if you want to see the ingenuity of evil teams. Go read LG5's. I GMd that one and it had, IMO, one of the best Eliminator teams so far. That was Kas's first game and you can go read how clever he, Alv, and Awes were together in that game. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Cycle 1: someone dies

Cycle 2: Scholar scans them

Cycle 3: scholar communicates info

 

Yeah, someone revealing that they are a scholar in the thread would paint a target on their head for the eliminators. Unless someone with a protect role were to protect them every night. Which I suppose is a viable strategy, considering that scholars are the only way you can figure out if someone is evil or not, and so may be one of the most important roles.

 

Should scholars roleclaim in the thread, or should they wait and hope to get PM'd? What's the general consensus?

 

This is another really important subject we need to discuss. In my mind, the only role I care about protecting is the Scholars. PMs are nice, but are the critical to win the game? No. If we don't find a way to communicate to everyone the roles and alignments of the deceased then we learn nearly nothing from deaths. The Diagrammists would inevitably win because unlike us they know who they need to kill to win, allowing them to control the thread. For that reason, do I think it wise that a Scholar claim in public? No. It's best if they all were to have PMs with someone but in a game where they're limited this much that isn't so simple. The issue is, if my theory about them having a cook is right and all the Scholars reveal / get their own single order of protection, then all they have to do is double tap them to remove our greatest asset. Therefore it's probably best to keep their identities behind closed doors. That being said, there's also a good chance of a Scholar being killed by a Cook or random evil kill if they don't seek protection. The only way things would really work out is if a Surgeon Captain were to PM a Scholar Regular (or vice versa) and trust each other enough to claim, and even that is a severe risk because then the Daigrammists would just attack the intermediary, meaning they'd need protection too. Personally I would only claim as a Scholar if I honestly believed my life was in danger (which I always do because I know that at some point in time the Diagrammists are going to want me dead). TLDR; circumstances dictate, but we need to find a solution to this problem and fast. I think that if a single Scholar claimed publicly and another were in communication with someone via PM it would work out; we could basically use them to confirm one another. I.E. the one in the PM tells their intermediary the result, the intermediary announces in thread they know the result, the publicly claimed one announces their result, the intermediary confirms they are the same, and then we have a single Scholar that we can guarantee protection for while still protecting the intermediary and at least one other essential player.

 

 

EDITED TO FIX SOME ERRORS AND FILL GAPS IN MY LOGIC

Edited December 16, 2015 by Adavantos

[Hellscythe he/him]

Unfortunately the gap begins and ends with the fact that Elsecallers have the possibility of still existing, Adavantos.

With Elsecallers the Scholars are essentially useless in the fact that not only can WE not trust their reads on dead players, but even THEY can't trust their own findings!

 

I'm not saying the Diagrammists should be underestimated every cycle or every game. I'm saying I was one step ahead of them last cycle even if I wasn't a surgeon. Which was only proven by the attack.

Also since you insist here's a larger "sample size" for you Mail.

Edited December 16, 2015 by Hellscythe

[Elbereth she/her]

Cycle 1: someone dies

Cycle 2: Scholar scans them

Cycle 3: scholar communicates info

Actually, depending on when the scholar's on, that's only one cycle of delay.

End of Cycle 1: xxx is revealed to have died

Cycle 2: Scholar sends in scan order

Cycle 3: Scholar gets result back and communicates that result

If the Scholar is on around turnover on the third cycle, that's only one cycle of delay.

Now, I do think that if we manage to have a system in place for the Scholars, at least one of them should go back and check random people who have already been checked, just to verify that they weren't messed with by an Elsecaller, without telling anyone else who they're scanning for obvious reasons.

Regarding the Cooks: I think it's very possible that there is an eliminator cook. If I had to choose which one it was, I don't really know. I would say not no one. Possible, but definitely unlikely (unless that cook is inactive, which could happen on either side).

For Mail, I could see either side. On the one hand, I would say that the eliminators would advise their teammate not to target Maill because that doesn't seem fair. On the other hand, I could see them being all for it, because Maill is quite dangerous, after all.

If the person who Stink's in contact with is a Diagrammist, I would tend to believe that they didn't in fact attack Hellscythe, but it's still possible, I suppose.

Arrenae actually seems the most likely choice. She has been around, but she wasn't likely to be protected, nor a focus of discussion, and we could learn just about nothing from her death (just like Mail said he would do, above).