Mid-Range Game 10: Divided Loyalties

[Guest]

Mace you still aren't doing all that much. If you start to contribute and you don't cause more suspicion for yourself, then I will start trusting you

 

As for the PM conundrum, if we were to connect almost all of the PMs to one person, like STINK and Kipper want to do, then it will be very easy for the Diagrammists to kill that person and stop nearly all inner faction communication.I feel like a hierarchy system would do much better for everyone.

I'm just messing, bro/sis. I don't really think that's a good idea, and personally, I suggest that people create a PMs with who they want to create a PMs with, not who anybody tells them to in thread.

[Kynedath]

I'm just messing, bro/sis. I don't really think that's a good idea, and personally, I suggest that people create a PMs with who they want to create a PMs with, not who anybody tells them to in thread.

Huh . . . I apologize then. It's so hard to tell a persons tone when they are typing.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, I have a couple comments right now. Adavantos, you said you thought that the Ghostbloods have 2 cooks, because both people that were attacked were Sons of Honor. I'm a bit curious how you know that both people attacked were the Sons of Honor, and likewise, how the Ghostbloods would have been coordinated enough to know who is aligned with which team. Because I think we have established that Mailliw's list is bogus, for the most part.

 

Looking back, Mailliw kind of claims to be a Son, trying to reveal Thaidakar, but we don't hear about Arraenae definitively, and Mailliw could be trolling some more. So I don't think we can really say for sure who is on which faction.

 

I also think that for the most part, the people that were protected make sense, but that kind of depends on role distributions. If we have 4 or more protection abilities, then it would be balanced for the eliminators to get a kill role in addition to their regular kill. So that would result in enough protection that at least one person might think of saving Venture. I would say that it is most likely that he was just protecting himself, but we can't do that this game. (potentially another factor that could lead to the village having a large number of protection roles)

 

And a vote... Venture Mistborn. A lot of people want to call him out, but aren't actually placing votes. I am a bit curious to hear his opinion, and I would also like to discourage the type of inactivity that he is know for. And I'm a bit short on time and he and Mailliw are the only people really sticking out to me.

[Bort he/him]

Going back and rereading the previous thread (and earlier posts in this thread about why people are suspicious of me), Sart, I didn't vote on Maill because if he had died, it would have been the third game in a row where he was the first casualty, and that just would not be fair. I didn't vote for Ada because I was waiting to see what else he would say, then didn't have a chance to get back on before I finished work on Monday, and my internet at home has been off, so I've not been able to get on until today. That is why no votes last cycle.

 

Starry, my reasons for that post were pretty well explained, and it was clarified by both Wilson and Kasimir that it was different this time around. Perhaps a post telling you all to ignore the post you latched on to as irrelevant? Would that have helped, or would it have just made people think I was attempting to be duplicitous by saying one thing, then half an hour later saying the exact opposite? Given how this game works, I'd have gone for the latter.

 

So, Starry Smite, for now. If I see a reason to, I'll change it before the end of the cycle (or, at least, I will plan to. Hopefully I'll be able to get online to do so).

Edited December 17, 2015 by Bort

[Guest]

Huh . . . I apologize then. It's so hard to tell a persons tone when they are typing.

It's

.

'S fine, bro/sis. One of the things that I typically do (in games with open PMs) is open PMs with every player in the game. I really, really, really love PMs. So I joke about everybody sending them to me.

Don't really have anything else to say right now. Again, though, Sons of Honor, Scan Sart. Ghostbloods, Scan Arrenae. Nobody acknowledged this as a good plan last time, so I'm saying it again.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Adavantos, on 15 December 2015 - 05:23 PM

 

I only voted for Sart to keep Stink from dying. A few of us have voted for him but he has not come on to defend himself yet. Since I personally would rather see a tie than a baseless lynch, I am retracting my vote from him. Instead, Paranoid King; why do you think Sart is worth lynching? Just because Stink may be good doesn't mean Sart is evil. If you're going to vote for a player, can you please give a real reason as to why they might be a Diagrammist? Otherwise your vote just seems kill hungry. 

 

 

PK, you never answered me calling you out, which honestly makes me more suspicious. Note on D1 of LG15 where I called Burnt Spaghetti out in thread among a few other players and that she was the only one that did not answer until I brought it up again but more aggresively; and that she turned out to be evil. I can't help but feel the real reason she (and you) ignored it the first time was because you didn't want to risk incriminating yourself more without getting some advice from your teammates first. So, for your benefit and everyone else's, I'm going to go ahead and quote all your posts so far and present what about them makes me suspicious of you.

 

Paranoid King, on 14 December 2015 - 04:07

 

 

I've got finals this week, but I'll be finished with them by the beginning of turn 3. I won't be all that active during turns 1 and 2, but I will respond to some posts made so far.

Clanky, on 13 Dec 2015 - 9:12 PM, said: "Slalassalas, I hear that you are a great swordsman and that you have defeated many Horneaters. That doesn't impress me. Fighting is not something to be proud of. Now perhaps if you were to best me at a mudbeer drinking contest then you would have my respect."

Woah, woah, woah. I never said I defeated them at swordplay, did I? I never even said I defeated any horneaters. I just stated that I defeated challengers, "all over the horneater peaks." I just challenged outsiders who didn't think they could beat a horneater.

"Slalassalas, I hear that you are a great swordsman and that you have defeated many Horneaters. That doesn't impress me. Fighting is not something to be proud of. Now perhaps if you were to best me at a mudbeer drinking contest then you would have my respect."

 

 

(Bandwagon on stink and hellscythe)

Remember, guys, even though they may be suspicious, this is the first day. The purpose of the first day is to make as many people sweat as possible, so you can get their gut reaction. I don't know about you, but the only people I see sweating are those two. Let's spread around the joy, people!

I'll start: Feligon, you're probably evil! As such, we will lynch you!

 

While I do agree that "spreading the joy" is necessary to prevent tunneling and instigate discussion,in retrospect I am getting the impression that you were trying to divert attention away from one of, if not both, of those players. By not specifically defending them while encouraging people to start looking elsewhere, you can potentially draw player's eyes off of them without directly implicating a connection to either one. Both players are considerably suspicious; Stink for his reveal and the fact that instead of pulling a vote from Sart to kill a known Runner an Ardent/Lightweaver decided to kill a completely unknown, and Hellscythe for his behavior throughout the course of this game thus far. Also, the tone in which you accuse Feligon makes me feel like you know more than you should. Why did you choose him of all players? I do votes like that all the time, but never without an explanation (I.E. Feligon, I see you viewing the thread but not posting. Are you lurking cause you're a Diagrammist trying to not get involved? If not, what are your thoughts?).

 

Paranoid King, on 15 December 2015 - 05:11 PM

 

 

I'm back! Thanks so much for your post summary, Adavantos.

Feligon hasn't posted yet, so I'm putting my vote somewhere it counts. If I were to break the tie between Stink and Sart, I'd go for Sart, merely because in so many previous games, stink acts funny, we lynch him, and he's good. I don't have that standard with Sart.

 

This is the post that really tipped me off about you in the first place. Your explanation for why Stink is probably good is absolutely terrible, in my honest opinion. The only time he's ever been an eliminator is the short-lived LG15a, therefore we have no evidence to suggest how he would behave if he were evil. Once again this makes me think you're trying to protect him in an indirect way. Right now I have a theory that if you are evil, either Stink or Hellscythe definitely is.

 

little wilson, on 15 December 2015 - 07:08 PM

 

 

Edurams (3): Krippe, Malarn, Slalassalas

John Doe (2): Locke Tekiel, Elba
Agrigar Leiken (2): Moros, Edurams
Malarn (2): Aleral, Alycia Kavdar
Inor Haze (2): Arina, Cla
Hellscythe (1): Seixa
Slalassalas (1): Agrigar Leiken
Maximilianos Sebarial (1): Sheon Idris

Starri (1) : Hellscythe

 

The official vote tally; note that a vote was removed from Stink in order to kill Sart. Though we clearly have a couple trigger happy Cooks out there, I personally get the feeling that this particular Ardent or Lightweaver belongs to the Diagrammists. In a game like this a manipulator of votes is great for the eliminators. It's a balanced way for the GMs to give them an additional kill without specifically giving them a kill role. And the Ardent/LW going for Sart over Stink matches up with them attacking Venture. Either it's because Stink is on his side (I'm more inclined to believe that they're trying to implicate him so that we take our protection off him him / lynch him ourselves) or that in both cases they thought he would be protected. While they could have used both on him in order to double tap, they may have realized the odds of multiple players protecting him being relatively high barring better candidates and that it'd be better for them to go after two players who they believed would not be protected (or in Venture's case, for a WGG?). Plus if they did do that it would just about guarantee that they have an Ardent or a LW as a move like that is far too coincidental.

 

Paranoid King, on 16 December 2015 - 03:20 AM

 

 

Considering that both of the players who were poisoned were Sons of Honor, I'm guessing that means the Ghostbloods have two cooks, which means the Sons of Honor should too.

I suppose. Or the teams could be imbalanced, with two cooks on one team. But I think it's a more likely scenario that people aren't really focusing on who or who isn't in their faction right now. Full faction lists haven't been released yet, and no PM communication is going on yet. This early in the game, the cooks may have just figured it was a better idea to attack now, rather than wait to make sure they didn't hit someone in their faction.

 

So you'll respond to this post of mine but not the other directly relevant to you? While it's possible you didn't remember the rules quite as well as some, I think that if you are indeed a Diagrammist this is an attempt at causing confusion. Even if you really believed this it could still be a way for you to challenge my logic; after all, if you emphasize that I was wrong about a detail like this, then that could cast doubt into other's minds that I'm wrong about other things, too.

 

Paranoid King, on 16 December 2015 - 05:34 AM

 

 

Fair point. And before anyone asks, my previous post wasn't me trying to say that it absolutely has to be a WGG; I just don't think it should be overlooked, and that every possible scenario be explored. Call me the King of Paranoia if you wish, but the fact that on the first cycle two different players got attacked and both just happened to be saved tells me something is fishy, and I find a Diagrammist attack more suspicious than a Cook's because the former can easily be coordinated while the latter requires a lot of what if scenarios falling perfectly in place.

...what.

 

This cannot happen. I'm the only paranoid king around here, thank you very much. The rest of you can be my advisers or something. You can advise me on how to be more paranoid. And then I'll fire you all to prevent anyone from getting too close to me.

 

Back on topic, I'm more inclined to think this is a WGG than otherwise. Having two people coincidentally attacked and protected in the same round would mean a lot of people are thinking alike. And it's difficult to get that level of coordination unless you have communication, which nobody but the eliminators have.

 

On the other hand, coincidences happen. And I suppose if everyone saw the same posts, they might think the same. And those who seem about to be lynched wouldn't be protected. But in that case, why not protect someone more obvious than venture?

 

I dunno how that would happen coincidentally. I'm giving it a 70% chance of being a WGG. My vote's on Venture.

 

Let's go ahead and assume that you are a Diagrammist and the attempt on Venture's life was not a WGG. The way I look at it you could be piggy backing off of my theory in an attempt to swing a lynch Venture's way in order to make up for your team's wasted kill. I'm curious how you came to that percentage, in particular. In LG15 we had a PM where you showed me the math in how you determined the percent chance of me being good, and it was relatively accurate. Can I see your math for this as well? Because otherwise it seems like you're just trying to commit enough of yourself into getting him lynched but not so much that if he dies and is revealed good than you can't just blame it on the remaining 30%.

 

All this said, I am less convinced of the Venture WGG, more convinced of either Stink or Hellscythe's guilt, and relatively certain that PK is the Diagrammist Ardent/Lightweaver - or at least is on a team with one. So PK, do you have a defense to all this?

Edited December 17, 2015 by Adavantos

[STINK he/him]

Talking of Hellscythe, the person I started my PM with? They claimed cook, and when they tried to poison Hellscythe, couldn't find Hellscythe.

 

They reckon that this makes HS a Diagrammist Elsecaller, as the two abilities the Elsecaller use are great for an eliminator team, what with being able to dodge attacks and also being able to manipulate the info we receive. 

 

That is all.

[Hellscythe he/him]

All ranks other than regular

All other than regular

other than regular

REGULAR

*a single tear*   D*; i cry everytim

 

P.S. Stink there's a 99.9% chance(of killing germs) your PM's are being watched. There's a 70% chance that one of them is a Diagrammist.

 

I also wouldn't mind PMs. Just saying. 

 

Uh actually I'm obviously the best candidate for PM's. Didn't you watch the Republican Debate last night? They were all talking about me and my amazing ability to PM efficiently.

 

 

Oh wow! Now my role is out there. Hi I'm Hellscythe the Explorer. You can call me Hellscythe, Dora's third cousin, twice removed. I assumed someone was going to attack me last night. So I guess there really is 4 cooks!!!! Now I'm scared. Especially since I used my ability last night and I'm vulnerable tonight. Save me good people of the Ghostblood society!

Edited December 16, 2015 by Hellscythe

[Clanky he/him]

Talking of Hellscythe, the person I started my PM with? They claimed cook, and when they tried to poison Hellscythe, couldn't find Hellscythe.

 

They reckon that this makes HS a Diagrammist Elsecaller, as the two abilities the Elsecaller use are great for an eliminator team, what with being able to dodge attacks and also being able to manipulate the info we receive. 

 

That is all.

 

So if this is true then we must have four cooks. I don't really like that number. It seems like a very excessive amount of kills. However with at least two surgeons and two edgedancers I suppose that could work.

 

However your assumption made after that is quite interesting. Given the fact that there are at least two elsecallers and two explorers who can all do the same action. 

 

That one piece of info doesn't exactly incriminate him. Now I will say that I do find Hellscythe suspicious. I don't exactly like his two votes for a new player for inactivity within the first two cycles. There are other inactive he could target but it seems like he may be trying to get a little more activity from a fellow Diagrammist perhaps?

[Guest]

 

 

You have been placed on moderator queue. This means that all content you submit will need to be approved by a moderator before it will be shown.

o.O Alright. 

Just so everybody knows, the above just happened due to a prank I pulled in the Random Stuff thread. People overreacted, etc., etc., and now, because of my frequent and many transgressions (wait, what?), I have been Mod-Queued. I know, I know, this now makes me the official "bad boy" of the forum. Stink, I got it before you, buddy. Take that.

 

I'm not sure at present how this will affect my posting here. For example, if I post a post, and someone else posts after me, will the mod-queue function stick my post in where it should have been, or will the function append my post to the end of the thread? I don't know! As far as I know, I'm the only one who has this...for clarity's sake, whenever I make a post, I will note at the beginning of it what the previous post was, just so's everybody doesn't place suspicion on me for something that happened chronologically later. Adavantos, if this messes up your summaries...blame me, man. This was. Totally. All. My. Fault. I deserved this. I don't need your sympathy. *breaks down* *sobs*

 

Note: This thing does not affect PMs. So far, I can still send those.

 

Alright, last post before this one was...Clanky. Let's see how fast little wilson is...

[Hellscythe he/him]

I was somewhat confused when my vote was changed because I wasn't sure if my "exploring" would affect that but that was fixed by Wilson later.

Hullo I am white text. Fear me!

My plan was to draw attention and cook kills to myself for day 1 (Which succeeded btw! Go away SoH cooks! Nobody needs your food!) as well as get people voting and debating over who they think should be lynched. At the time there was no information floating around except Stink's role/faction. By creating a clear divide between me and the one person who claimed a faction I was able to get a rough estimate of some people's factions. Although Mail did a much better job with that fake list of his.

 

At the same time I was invulnerable! To even a lynch! Until Wilson changed the rules sadly I had to go argue my case to Wilson that I should be allowed at least a day before the rule change took into effect. I mean I drew this much attention to myself under the assumption I was invulnerable it would suck to die to a lynch. Luckily she agreed, seeing my side of the rule change(ty wilson <3), and posted that the rule change wouldn't take effect until today.

 

I was totally planning to do some weird code that spelled out E Z R E A L and it was gonna be the coolest role claim ever. storming cooks. Spooky Scary Skeletons!

Edited December 16, 2015 by Hellscythe

[Amanuensis he/him]

Talking of Hellscythe, the person I started my PM with? They claimed cook, and when they tried to poison Hellscythe, couldn't find Hellscythe.

 

They reckon that this makes HS a Diagrammist Elsecaller, as the two abilities the Elsecaller use are great for an eliminator team, what with being able to dodge attacks and also being able to manipulate the info we receive. 

 

That is all.

 

So the first person you just happen to PM is a Cook and claimed to you? Is it just me, or does that seem incredibly suspicious? In order for that circumstance to play out so much has to go right. I'm either more inclined to believe that they're an eliminator pulling wool over your eyes or a new player that you started a PM with simply for being your superior, not knowing the dangers of role claiming. Given that you didn't say their name, I take it they asked you to keep their identity private but pass on what they learned?

 

Oh wow! Now my role is out there. Hi I'm Hellscythe the Explorer. You can call me Hellscythe, Dora's third cousin, twice removed. I assumed someone was going to attack me last night. So I guess there really is 4 cooks!!!! Now I'm scared. Especially since I used my ability last night and I'm vulnerable tonight. Save me good people of the Ghostblood society!

 

Assuming there's four cooks? Does that mean you were not informed that someone tried killing you last night? I guess that makes sense given the nature of the Explorer / Transportation abilities. That being said, I think it is very likely then that there are 4 cooks. Otherwise the claimed Cook would have to be incredibly lucky to guess that you were unkillable last night. Then again, this could be another form of a WGG where your mate claims you're invincible when you're really not. Also, you claiming Explorer now doesn't help the case. Good or evil it would benefit an Elsecaller to feign being an Explorer, in order to prevent them from being focused over another candidate.

 

So if this is true then we must have four cooks. I don't really like that number. It seems like a very excessive amount of kills. However with at least two surgeons and two edgedancers I suppose that could work.

 

However your assumption made after that is quite interesting. Given the fact that there are at least two elsecallers and two explorers who can all do the same action. 

 

That one piece of info doesn't exactly incriminate him. Now I will say that I do find Hellscythe suspicious. I don't exactly like his two votes for a new player for inactivity within the first two cycles. There are other inactive he could target but it seems like he may be trying to get a little more activity from a fellow Diagrammist perhaps?

 

I agree that the Cook's assumption is a big leap to take. However I guess I can see why they might think that. With all the shenanigans that went on with Hellscythe last cycle, I wouldn't be surprised if this was another situation like the one where Wilson pulled attention off of BB who had a critical role but acted rashly before they could discuss it in doc. I'll have to deliberate more on this situation, but whether it's Hellscythe, Stink, the Cook or some combination of the three I think there is something going on. And of the three, Hellscythe's death would do much less damage to us and give us the most information, as revealing his alignment could implicate a lot of players given how many people were involved with discussion with him on Cycle 1.

Edited December 16, 2015 by Adavantos

[Zas678 he/him]

Wait, I missed something I think. There was a cook that killed Arraenae, there was a cook that tried to kill Mail but Mail was saved, there was a cook that tried to kill Hellscythe but Hellscythe transported/disapearred... Where's the fourth one? The Eliminators tried to take out Venture with their team kill.

 

I'm with Adavantos. I think that something fishy is going on with Hellscythe and Stink. It seems too fabricated. 

[Hellscythe he/him]

I would agree that it would benefit me to feign explorer except for the part where I mentioned Wilson.

 

In the Elsecaller role it says you are not protected by lynch.

In the Explorer role it said you were protected specifically from the lynch.

Why would I need to have Wilson postpone the rule change if I was an Elsecaller?

 

Also I disagree that my death would give you any information. First off you wouldn't figure out anything except that I died for atleast a day. Then you're banking on the fact that the dead-checker isn't a Regular who can't PM people and is in a PM with someone else and is willing to share information or is willing to role claim out in public. Then you'd figure out that I'm everything I claimed to be and innocent which is even less reason for the dead-checker to role claim. There's no new information to hand out. Killing me is one of the least efficient ideas.

 

Zas, the fourth cook is likely either, inactive, targeted a dead or attacked player, or targeted another Elsecaller/Explorer.

 

Also I'm not sure what this whole thing between me and Stink seems so fishy. I set myself up on the side of the ghostbloods and Stink was already on the side of the Sons of Honor. By having people vote for either me or Stink it was a way to reveal factions.

 

BECAUSE AS I SAID BEFORE...... The Diagrammists already know so much information just from being in the factions. They know everyone under them and one person above them. For each person on the Diagrammist team!!! Holy camole that's a lot of information that the Diagrammists have that we don't because they can share information safely between one another.

[STINK he/him]

I thought that even if the Cook was lying, their theory about Hellscythe should be something that we all see, and the fact that Hellscythe is a role that supports the possibility of that person being a cook, then I feel confident enough to trust them about being a Cook. 

[Zas678 he/him]

Ah, I see. 4 cooks for the issue of balance, 2 for each team. I understand. 

[Clanky he/him]

 

 

Zas, the fourth cook is likely either, inactive, targeted a dead or attacked player, or targeted another Elsecaller/Explorer.

 

 

Or the 4th cook decided not to go randomly killing someone based on only one cycles worth of info. If so good for them! 

[RippleGylf she/her]

Or the 4th cook decided not to go randomly killing someone based on only one cycles worth of info. If so good for them! 

 

What is this you speak of? Not actually killing people without a clue? But this is a Sanderson Elimination game! 

 

Jesting aside, having four cooks sounds about right.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Or there could be 3 cooks, one for each team.

[RippleGylf she/her]

Or there could be 3 cooks, one for each team.

 

I dearly hope the diagrammists don't have a second kill every cycle, because at that rate the game is already lost.

[Kynedath]

I think your sttistics are innaccurate. 

 

 

If we are trying to figure out the chances of there being KRs on the Dia team then you have to take into account the multiplication of probability. Since there are 8 KRs in the game and 36 total, the KRs take up 25% of the players. Therefore, there is a 25% chance that there will be one KR with the Diagrammists. When you calculate the chances of there being 2 KRs on the Dia team, then you have a 5% chance of having both of them on your team. 

 

1 KR = 25%

2 KR = 5%

3 KR = 0.88%

 

Equations:

 

8/36 = 0.25 = 25%

 

7/35 = 0.2 --> 0.2*0.25 = 5%

 

5/34 = ~0.147 --> 0.147*0.05 = ~0.88%

 

Knowing this, I feel we have a high chance of there being only one KR on the Diagrammist team unless Wilson or Kas handpicked the Diagrammists.

If we apply the same logic to the cook problem as I did with the KR problem, then assuming that STINK is telling the truth about there being a third and the factions being balanced, giving us a fourth cook, the probability of there being a cook on the Diagrammist team is:

 

4/36 = ~0.111 = ~11%

 

3/35 = ~0.0857 --> 0.0857*0.11 = 0.009427 = 0.94%

 

1 cook = 11%

2 cooks = 0.94%

 

Keep in mind that this is including Arraenae  and Sart who could have been one of the cooks.

 

EDIT: This translates to approximately a one in ten chance.

 

This is also assuming that Wilson and Kas have not hand-picked the diagrammists.

Edited December 16, 2015 by Kynedath

[Amanuensis he/him]

I dearly hope the diagrammists don't have a second kill every cycle, because at that rate the game is already lost.

 

The more I think about it, the more certain I am that the Diagrammists do have a cook. Look at it this way. Village has majority, right? So it is safe to say that the Lynch is a kill for their team. Add that to 4 village Cooks and you got 5 village kills vs 1 eliminator kill. I don't know about you but that's pretty unbalanced if you ask me. Even if the Diagrammists have an Ardent or Lightweaver, that still isn't enough to make up for such a disadvantage, as all the village has to do is gap the votes enough to ensure no shenanigans take place. I think we'd be a lot better off if we didn't assume all Cooks were good. Guaranteed good roles are something that Wilson in particular opposes due to past experiences involving players using that to break the game.

[Clanky he/him]

Or there could be 3 cooks, one for each team.

Except the roles are equal between the GBs and SoH. Since the Diagrammists (What's a good short form for them?) are included within the other Factions their roles count for distributions sake.

 

I dearly hope the diagrammists don't have a second kill every cycle, because at that rate the game is already lost.

I wouldn't say that. With at least four protective roles and four roles that can't be killed except through lynch that can easily defend against two kill roles.

 

 

EDIT: GM question, If someone is protected and then double tapped will that be shown in the write-up? 

Edited December 16, 2015 by Clanky

[Amanuensis he/him]

The more I think about it, the more certain I am that the Diagrammists do have a cook. Look at it this way. Village has majority, right? So it is safe to say that the Lynch is a kill for their team. Add that to 4 village Cooks and you got 5 village kills vs 1 eliminator kill. I don't know about you but that's pretty unbalanced if you ask me. Even if the Diagrammists have an Ardent or Lightweaver, that still isn't enough to make up for such a disadvantage, as all the village has to do is gap the votes enough to ensure no shenanigans take place. I think we'd be a lot better off if we didn't assume all Cooks were good. Guaranteed good roles are something that Wilson in particular opposes due to past experiences involving players using that to break the game.

 

Now the question is, if one of the Cooks are evil, which one would it be? The one who attacked Mail, Arraenae, "Hellscythe", or no one / not confirmed? I can think of a reason or two for each.

 

1. Mail: Several players expressed that no one target Mail this cycle because he was killed N1 in the last two games. If the Diagrammists were to use their Cook to kill him it could make us really begin to question some player's intents, especially if they ever end up claiming that role. Majority agrees that was cruel, and honestly if this Cook is the Diagrammist one then I would bet that they were either A: one of the players who agreed tha Mail should be left alone C1 or B: one of the players who reacted to it specifically, likely in a more exagerated way.

2. Arraenae: I'll have to look over her posts to see if she ended up pushing any people's buttons, but the first thought that comes to mind is that someone felt salty about Arraenae Mistborning them to death in LG15 and decided to enact revenge.

3. "Hellscythe": Already offerred my scenarious about this earlier. It's possible the person isn't a Cook but just on Hellscythe's team and thought this would be a good opportunity to soft clear him. Looking at his response to his role being discovered it seems to me that Hellscythe had his reveal premeditated. It's true that he could be an Explorer; but even then, it doesn't rule him out as being a Diagrammist. Considering how many kill roles are in this game I wouldn't be surprised if the Diagrammists got multiple protective roles, especially if they turn out not to have a Cook of their own.

4. No one: While I personally believe that Diagrammists would benefit more from killing players off from the start instead of waiting in order to commit the long con, it's possible that they decided to sit the first Cycle out in case a situation arose where they could claim they were the Cook who killed no one and become soft cleared for it.

Edited December 16, 2015 by Adavantos

[little wilson she/her]

This is also assuming that Wilson and Kas have not hand-picked the diagrammists.

 

Role-distribution was done purely based on RNG. I let randomness decide everything. Did I always take the first roll? No. There were some things that I rolled multiple times on, because of whatever reason. Point is, everything from who is on the Diagrammist team to what they have and what ranks they have and who holds them was all random. Yes, I had an idea of what I wanted, but I did not handpick a single thing anywhere in the distribution.

 

EDIT:

 

GM question, If someone is protected and then double tapped will that be shown in the write-up? 

 

Yes? Depends on if we're showing that scene or not. It would be acknowledged that the person was double-tapped for sure.