Long Game 13: Traitors on the Plains

[Mailliw73]

Kipper, Macen mentioned the same things in a PM to me. He said that exact thing about Shallan to me, so when she died, I figured it might have something to do with him. I just don't know why he would help influence the death of an inactive. They aren't our top priorities right now. But I do want to call out Idolevy to see what their thoughts so far are. Most people have been pretty quiet recently, so my suspicions aren't very broad.

[phattemer]

Wow. I'm really sorry about how inactive I was for the last few cycles. I guess I'll just go from here then.

[Mailliw73]

Glad you're back, Phatt. Feligon, I saw you checking the thread as well. Want to say something?

[twelfthrootoftwo]

If we know Macen was 1) PMing last cycle and 2) involved in Shallan's death, that makes a pretty good likelihood that one of his PM contacts was the killer (ie a division user). In which case I don't think revealing the PM contacts is a good idea...

 

Orlok, re. this post: I appreciate the reasons for a villager arguing Bort wasn't killed for his role - that was the view I took, after all! But I still think it probable that multiple Diagramists argued that way as well. Your lengthy explanation of mixing up Ren and Hero seemed somewhat overblown to me, too.

 

My vote will go on Bridge Boy for now, though. Again over the Bort thing, which BB held a strong opinion on.

[Clanky]

I am not sure if I missed something in my initial read through but didn't phat just out twelfth as a (supposed) refugee KR when he had so far been hidden?

 

EDIT: Vote colouring

Edited August 5, 2015 by Clanky

[Kipper]

Twei, why would we assume that one of Macen' contacts was the killer? The Eliminators know that Macen is a high-profile target for them, and have known it for a while.

I'm voting for Orlok again.

[phattemer]

Uh, clanky, in that case, why are you voting for me? There'd be no reason for me to do that if i was a diagrammist, since I'd have a doc. Also, since apparently nobody else noticed that, I'll vote for you. Clanky.In case you were wondering, he is a refugee.

Edited August 6, 2015 by phattemer

[Emerald101]

Twei, why would we assume that one of Macen' contacts was the killer? The Eliminators know that Macen is a high-profile target for them, and have known it for a while.

I'm voting for Orlok again.

 

I got the impression that he meant one of Macen's contacts was Shallan's killer, which says nothing about whether or not they're an eliminator, only that we shouldn't blurt out everyone who was in the PM. There's a high likelihood that one of the participants in that PM is a Skybreaker/Dustbringer, so we wouldn't want to reveal them for the eliminators.

 

Edit: fixed KR order name.

 

Additional comment: To whoever upvoted my post last cycle (assuming they're actually a participant in the game, and not just spectators or w/e): 

 

I appreciate that you agree with my assessment, but I appreciate it more when you actually speak up with your feelings on the subject, which is something no honest villager should be afraid to do. Which isn't to say that upvotes aren't welcome. Of course they are, It's just nice if you say something as well.

 

Additional comment2: I'd also like to know who was the Eliminator kill target that survived on night 4

Edited August 4, 2015 by Emerald101

[Peng the Just]

I wonder why Macen was suspicious of Shallan? He asked me as well... Anybody got any ideas?

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Kipper, you are once again voting for me on little logic - you said last day cycle that you'd expound upon it - please do! I'm not sure what I can do to help assuage your suspicions if you continue to tunnel vision on me on a hunch!

Clanky - of course I created a lengthy explanation last cycle! I had the absolutely horrendous misfortune to mix up the names of two eliminators of all people - I felt anxious to explain myself as I felt that if I didn't do so adequately, I would be lynched; the desire to get an actual eliminator lynched rather than myself is normally a pretty big driver to create a lengthy post.

What are other's views in Joe's explanation for complete inactivity - it's atypical for him, and his explanation seemed a bit unsatisfactory for me - but that might just be my paranoia!

[twelfthrootoftwo]

I am not sure if I missed something in my initial read through but didn't phat just out twelfth as a (supposed) refugee KR when he had so far been hidden?

Yes. You'll notice I'm not voting for him, though.

 

 

Twei, why would we assume that one of Macen' contacts was the killer? The Eliminators know that Macen is a high-profile target for them, and have known it for a while.

Emerald is correct; I'm concerned about Shallan's killer, a Division user, being identified.

[Clanky]

Uh, clanky, in that case, why are you voting for me? There'd be no reason for me to do that if i was a diagrammist, since I'd have a doc. Also, since apparently nobody else noticed that, I'll vote for you. Clanky. In case you were wondering, he is a refugee.

 

I am only wondering why you would be the one to reveal it and not him is all. It just seems like a curious move regardless of your allegiance. However with twelfth coming out I suppose you probably talked about it in your PM which I forgot at the time that KRs and their squires get. 

[Araris Valerian]

Well, I kind of have 3 people that I suspect. One is Peng, but of the three killing him would give us the least amount of information.

I don't really want to mention both of the other two, on the off chance that my suspicions are right about both of them. So I am going to vote on Mailliw. It's not really that he has done anything overtly suspicious, but reading back through the thread a few of his posts stuck out to me, particularly around the time when Macen and Bort were revealing things. My other suspect stuck out to me for similar reasons. If I have more time then I might try and do more of a detailed analysis later tonight.

Edit: Removed Vote

Edited August 6, 2015 by Araris Valerian

[Kipper]

Orlok, the nature of my hunch is honestly pretty irrational. I have a bad feeling about the way you interacted with the Eliminators (not the mixup, I understand that), and how your posts sounded in general. I can't point to anything specific. I wish I could. There are a few others I'm suspicious of, but right now, I will leave my vote on you. Note: If you're a villager, I get that this sounds bad at best to you. I'm sorry, if you are. But it looks like you won't be lynched anyway.

Twei, I erroneously assumed that you were referring to Macen's killer, not Shallan's killer. With that assumption, my thought process was: Because the Eliminators knew that Macen was a good target already, we shouldn't assume that his killer was a current contact. Sorry for the mixup.

Emerald, Macen was the one who was attacked and survived.

[phattemer]

Yeah, I have no idea why I thought that was a good idea. I mean, at least twei isn't one of the more useful KR orders, so the village didn't lose ALL that much. I don't even know what my ability can do.

[Mailliw73]

Well, I kind of have 3 people that I suspect. One is Peng, but of the three killing him would give us the least amount of information.

I don't really want to mention both of the other two, on the off chance that my suspicions are right about both of them. So I am going to vote on Mailliw. It's not really that he has done anything overtly suspicious, but reading back through the thread a few of his posts stuck out to me, particularly around the time when Macen and Bort were revealing things. My other suspect stuck out to me for similar reasons. If I have more time then I might try and do more of a detailed analysis later tonight.

Um, mind explaining which posts you mean?

Yeah, I have no idea why I thought that was a good idea. I mean, at least twei isn't one of the more useful KR orders, so the village didn't lose ALL that much. I don't even know what my ability can do.

Readign the rules should help.

[phattemer]

Well, that seems fairly useless. I can neither confirm nor deny that I pretty much have a power that does about nothing that I can use 1 in 6 times and am now a fairly bigger target because of it. Also, any truthwatchers/edgedancers with a charge left, could you protect twei?

[Metacognition]

Write up, compliments of Hero, is up! Enjoy! I know I did.

Edited August 5, 2015 by Metacognition

[Herowannabe]

Write up, compliments of Hero, is up! Enjoy! I know I did.

Thanks meta! I hope people enjoy it, this one took me WAY too long to do, though admittedly a large part of that was the constant interruptions from my toddler.

[phattemer]

Awwww

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Just wanted to poke my head in to say great writeup, Hero, and that I am in the process of constructing a suspicions post, but it won't be up for 10 hours, probably, as I'm literally walking out of the door to work.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Well, since this is evidently going to be an issue: one of my surges is Abrasion. I have several charges left, and can protect myself tonight. Ren's squire used their charge (Adhesion) to kill Macen, so that will be fine at least for this night cycle.

 

By my reading, the events of the writeup (it was epic, Hero!) are: Diagram use Adhesion and kill on Macen, Tent Animator used Tension on Macen; Tension cancelled Adhesion and the kill went through. When Aonar gets back, it would be good to know if this was chosen at random or if there's a systematic choice for which action is cancelled.

[Clanky]

It ays in the OP that tension cancels a random action. So that should answer your question.

[Macen]

Well, since this is evidently going to be an issue: one of my surges is Abrasion. I have several charges left, and can protect myself tonight. Ren's squire used their charge (Adhesion) to kill Macen, so that will be fine at least for this night cycle.

 

By my reading, the events of the writeup (it was epic, Hero!) are: Diagram use Adhesion and kill on Macen, Tent Animator used Tension on Macen; Tension cancelled Adhesion and the kill went through. When Aonar gets back, it would be good to know if this was chosen at random or if there's a systematic choice for which action is cancelled.

Since it was specifically asked, I feel that I can confirm it was chosen at random. Tension states that it will block an action used against a player. My luck couldn't last forever!

[Emerald101]

Since a number of people seem to be suspicious of Orlok, here's my analysis of every post he's made so far (using blue for him to distinguish between his posts and my thoughts):

 

Posts (and my responses):

• Clarifies that Raylt Faialen was Seonid and that they pulled out before the start of the game, and that he won’t be RPing much. Not much to say here, looks mostly like a "Hey, I'm here!" kind of post.​

• Reminds everyone that there are no safe roles, and invites speculation on role numbers. Yeah, not much to say here either.

• Is looking through previous posts trying to find anything suspicious, but can’t find Idolevy’s post that Hero and Mailliw referenced. This is where he confuses Ren and Hero up, which has caused so much interest in Orlok. Frankly, I don't see what all the fuss is about, looks like a simple mistake to me.

• Clarifies that it was Ren who referenced the post above, not Hero. A simple mistake.

• Reminds everyone that while it is plausible that Bort was killed by someone he contacted, he was outspoken in-thread, so that might have attracted attention. Votes for Leif because he agrees with my view that Leif was trying to act villager-like. Here he does the same thing both Ren and Hero did: tries to direct attention away from the four PM members. He accepts that there is a possibility that one of them killed Bort, and votes for Leif - cleverly directing attention away from Ren and Hero, while at the same time, employing a common eliminator strategy: hopping on someone else's suspicion in an attempt to start a bandwagon.

• Commends Macen for finding diagramists, and wonders if those two being diagramists could clear other experienced players. Funny, didn't he just vote for somebody for doing this exact same thing? The first part of this post is an attempt to seem like a villager, the second, perhaps, an attempt to soft-clear other eliminators?​​​

• Very lengthy post attempting to direct suspicion away from him in the following ways:

  • Sites an unwell dog for his lack of activity. I believe this. Most players don't lie about RL reasons.

  • Says he can’t really respond to Kipper’s “Hunch” post. I have my own thoughts about Kipper's "hunch", but I won't go into that here. Suffice it to say I don't think he's an Eliminator.

  • Gives his reasoning behind trying directing the lynch away from the four PM members:

    • Others did the same Notably Ren and Hero.

    • Bort was active, that could’ve attracted unwelcome attention While this is true, that's typically not the main criteria eliminators choose kill targets from.

    • Didn’t want discussion to tunnel-vision He says this, but before he continued to vote for one of the four members. So which is it Orlok? Not wanting to tunnel-vision, but also putting pressure on the PM members, notably not Ren or Hero.

    • Macen proved his feelings wrong, but he stands by his opinion given what information was available him. His opinion which was inherently contradictory.

  • Gives reasons for the Ren/Hero mix-up: Overall, I don't think this particular debate is of any importance.

    • Read through the discussion of the last LG, which included a lot of posts from both of them. Thin excuse, but whatever.

    • They posted sequentially the page before he mixed them up, he simply accidently look at the wrong name. I honestly think this was an honest mistake.

    • Is awful with names Can't really say either way.

  • Votes for Eramit, because it looked like Eramit was trying to start a bandwagon on him. Again, voting for somebody after somebody after another player (Me, in both cases, but that's probably a coincidence.) puts some suspicion on that person.

• Medium length post:

  • Tells Kipper to expound on his reasons for his continuing votes for Orlok, as Kipper said he would last cycle. Again, I have my own thoughts on Kipper's reasoning.

  • Responds to Clanky’s accusation by saying a potential lynching would be enough motivation for anyone to make a lengthy post. Fair enough.

  • Asks others views on Joe’s inactivity reasons post, and says he doesn’t think Joe’s reasoning is adequate. A not-so-subtle attempt to redirect the conversation away from himself.

So I'll be voting for Orlok this cycle.

 

Edit: fixed spacing. mostly, anyway.

Edited August 5, 2015 by Emerald101