Anniversary Game: In the Re-Wake of the Koloss

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Gee guys, thanks for lynching me after I can't defend myself. Really makes me feel loved. If I didn't have an extra life, I would feel pretty annoyed about dying this way. Mailliw and Ashiok, I would love to hear why you thought that lynching me when I couldn't defend myself was a good idea. Particularly you, Mailliw, when you voted half an hour before the end.

 

And if I die tonight from an Eliminator kill, well. I suppose it's better than you tunneling onto me the next day, but I hope it makes you all rethink things hard. I will laugh if I'm the only one who's looking at things right.

Edited January 8, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Claincy, to answer your question, I'm in China right now, but my laptop is set to Melbourne time.

 

Unodus, Wyrm was a Thug - an ability which grants him a second life - so he was lynched just then, but he still has one life left (Edgar dying represents Wyrm losing one of his lives).

[Claincy he/him]

Ok, I'm back from work and have helped cook (and eat!) dinner, and I've caught up on PMs and the thread.

I apologize for being absent for most of the second part of the day, I was working from 9-5 (5pm here is when the cycle ends) and I only had time to check PMs in the morning and not enough time to post or reply. Fortunately this shouldn't occur again until wednesday. Though, I am quite happy to have my first professional IT job!

 

...And then I had finally started writing this post and our internet connection cut off!...it's back now, so here's a post.

 

I don't have too much to say about today, partly because I'm just tired.

We could guess a number different possibilities from Alaris's vote being soothed

-Wilson has access to a soother or mistborn

-The spiked have a soother or mistborn and are trying to protect Eolhondras or want Wyrm dead

-The spiked have a soother or mistborn and are trying to throw even more suspicion on him

-The spiked didn't care that much who died so long as someone did

Conclusion? Not sure, let's keep a close eye on vote manipulation in the next round and we might be able to sus it out. Sorry that isn't overly helpful I think I had a point before the net went but it's gone now: tired. :/

 

 

Claincy, to answer your question, I'm in China right now, but my laptop is set to Melbourne time.

Ok, that does make sense. Hope you're having a good time there

One quick suggestion, rather than just saying you didn't want to participate in the discussion which is kinda suspicious sounding, you would perhaps be better off mentioning limited wifi access to start with or even just say that "I unfortunately can't participate in the discussion much for rl reasons." if you didn't want to say anything about your personal life. *shrug* would just be a little less suspicious.

[Unodus he/him]

Thanks, Panda ^-^

So, who's been rioted/ soothed?
Knowing how many emotimancers we're up against could be useful... :V

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I was definitely soothed. I am in contact with someone that says that they soothed Wilson, but that PM came late enough last night that the order might not have gone through.

[the winter system]

Hello. My apologies for missing the last cycle(s?), I got really distracted.  Really distracted. Either way, I'm back now. Probably. I, of course, did not get emotionmanced last night. No use Soothing a no vote and Rioters can't emotionmance a no vote. I have thought of a reason why Alaris's vote didn't count. He is a Rioter. I don't believe that myself, but I'm throwing out possibilities. 

[Lord Pifferdoo he/him]

Hmm, that is an interesting theory.

Aralis, what do you say to this?

[WeiryWriter he/him]

Okay so from what I can tell before soother/rioter shenanigans the vote last night was tied 3/3 between Eol and Wyrm. Now correct me if I'm wrong but if a lynch vote is tied then no one gets lynched, correct? So the fact that someone Soothed a vote for Eol ensured that Wyrm died.  I find it interesting that Eol was saved instead of Wyrm.  I'll echo Wilson and ask the seekers among us to Seek him sooner rather than later.

 

(I'm pretty sure this holds up but I'm not 100% sure I got the pre-meddling vote tally right)

[Ashiok]

Wyrm asked me why I voted for him. This was my answer:

I did so because of what wilson said about Kas, combined with the fact that I didn't think anybody else would come on right before the cycle ended.
I posted two hours before, assuming that if anybody voted for him, I'd be able to discuss why. Mail posted after I went to bed, if I had seen his post, I would've retracted my vote. His votes have no logic to them, and this makes me suspicious.

I'm not saying that I thought to go behind the back of the village and change the lynch vote, I just wanted to promote discussion. I probably should've retracted the vote before I went to bed, but I didn't think anybody would act on it... Oops.

So, Mail, why did you vote Wyrm?

[little wilson she/her]

So, Mail, why did you vote Wyrm?

 

Maill voted Wyrm because I asked for help in saving Eol. I'm pretty sure neither of us expected emotional allomancy, and particularly not emotional allomancy in the way of saving Eol. I haven't had time to focus on what exactly that means yet since I've been at work all day, and the rollover happened as I was going to sleep.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Wyrm asked me why I voted for him. This was my answer:

I did so because of what wilson said about Kas, combined with the fact that I didn't think anybody else would come on right before the cycle ended.

I posted two hours before, assuming that if anybody voted for him, I'd be able to discuss why. Mail posted after I went to bed, if I had seen his post, I would've retracted my vote. His votes have no logic to them, and this makes me suspicious.

I'm not saying that I thought to go behind the back of the village and change the lynch vote, I just wanted to promote discussion. I probably should've retracted the vote before I went to bed, but I didn't think anybody would act on it... Oops.

So, Mail, why did you vote Wyrm?

 

Maill voted Wyrm because I asked for help in saving Eol. I'm pretty sure neither of us expected emotional allomancy, and particularly not emotional allomancy in the way of saving Eol. I haven't had time to focus on what exactly that means yet since I've been at work all day, and the rollover happened as I was going to sleep.

 

Wilson is correct. Because my suspicion of Eol is a lot lower than my suspicion of Wyrm, I decided it was better to tie it up. That way, we didn't lose someone innocent, and if emotional allomancy got involved, we could try to decide what the Spiked would be doing with that allomancy. I was much more willing to let Wyra die if it came to it, but this way, we got emotional allomancy involved so we can speculate on that, and we didn't lose anyone.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

For me to be a rioter, I would have had to rioted somebody that was also soothed, since everyone's vote except mine is where it should be. I don't think that really works out either, unless I rioted myself or something.

Meta, is there a way to riot someone and lose your own vote without changing theirs?

[Herowannabe he/him]

For me to be a rioter, I would have had to rioted somebody that was also soothed, since everyone's vote except mine is where it should be. I don't think that really works out either, unless I rioted myself or something.

Meta, is there a way to riot someone and lose your own vote without changing theirs?

If you riot someone into voting for the person that they already cast their vote for, this would happen. Something like that could happen if the person you targeted with your rioting changed their vote after you PMed meta your riot orders.

Edit: darn mobile phone.

Edited January 8, 2015 by Herowannabe

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I feel like this game would be so much fun as a rioter. Especially if you were spiked or were in a seeker group, you would have tons of influence as far as what goes on. So I guess this means that either myself or somebody else wanted Wyrm dead, although there wouldn't be too much point in me using my power for that if I could just retract my vote the vanilla way.

[Renegade he/him]

Well, right now, I’d just like to get some more comments from the quieter players (you know who you are).  While I understand that many of you have RL reasons for your silence, I’m disinclined to believe that anyone is so busy that they can barely post the entire week.  I’d like some more discussion from them over the weekend.  I don’t think it'll be too difficult to come up with some discussion points, and it could really help us out.

 

The votes are a bit worrisome, as they changed rather quickly after I left.  Perhaps trying to save Eol would’ve been the best thing to do in this scenario, but I don’t think that means that we should just starting voting for people because Wilson or someone else tells us to.  As unlikely as it may seem at this point, I’m not going to completely discount a Eol-Wilson Spiked team going on here.  Perhaps we’re just going to have to see from the next few Night cycles.

 

In the meantime, we’re going to need to collect more information.  I feel that it’s slightly too early for me to start making solid conjectures and arguments against other players, as I’d like to hear more from everyone first.  After all, with all of the players that we have in the game, finding any connections or lack of connections is going to be difficult.  Luckily, we ought to be able to narrow down the number of suspects as the player numbers narrow down during the mid-late game.  But again, that’s still a long ways off and I’d still like some info from the less active players, especially the newer players (as we don’t know your playstyle yet), before eventually delving into super-serious analysis.

[Mckeedee123 he/him]

Well, right now, I’d just like to get some more comments from the quieter players (you know who you are).  While I understand that many of you have RL reasons for your silence, I’m disinclined to believe that anyone is so busy that they can barely post the entire week.  I’d like some more discussion from them over the weekend.  I don’t think it'll be too difficult to come up with some discussion points, and it could really help us out.

 

Well, I'm definitely not busy. I've kept this thread open for the last few days while I've played Dwarf Fortress, and refreshed it every few minutes. I would post more, but I don't have anything to add to the conversation. A lot of you guys seem to base your suspicions on discrepancies in playstyle, and I just don't have that kind of knowledge. Rest assured that I'm posting any decent thing that comes to mind, however.

Edited January 9, 2015 by mckeedee123

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I'm in a similar situation. I have lots of time to post usually, but I get things said and then click the refresh button every 10 minutes. The only time that I have been lynched was because Wilson is evil and people thought that my playstyle was off, but I don't see too much in that. I don't see myself as having a playstyle and half of the players in this game are in their 1st, 2nd or 3rd games. That's why its a bit frustrating that so many people are so silent. If those people end up being the only ones left then they will struggle to accomplish as much simply because of a lack of communication.

[Seonid he/him]

I don't have time to really respond right now, but I think that I have things to add to the discussion (although I might be overestimating my ability to contribute).

 

I'll write up my thoughts in the morning, but I wanted to respond to the call out (which I think was at least partially directed at me).

[Lord Pifferdoo he/him]

Baron Von Piffertiff stood in shock. 

"Lord Ruler, that escalated quickly." he muttered to himself. The situation in town was getting more stressful every day, and fights like these were becoming more and more frequent. 

The Baron noticed someone in town square looking towards the window the Baron was standing behind. He then realized that he may or may not look slightly creepy just standing there, doing nothing. He raised one hand in a wave. When the villager didn't stop looking, the Baron raised his other hand, in what hopefully looked like a "don't mind me, just looking at people" kind of gesture. 

 

In reality, the villager thought the Baron had just given him malicious jazz hands.

 

---

 

Hello, I'll try to post a bit more, after reading Ren's post. I'll add more game stuff and less RP stuff.

 

I think our number 1 priority should be figuring out who was Soothed/Rioted and who we think did the allomancy.

 

Here's the final voting before the night ended:

(3) Eoladdin- Peng, Aralis, Wyra

(3) Wyra- Wilson, Ashette, Maill

(2) Lord Ostrich- Eoladdin, Herwnybe

(2) Peng- Jain, Lord Ostrich

(1) Ament- Melend

(1) Larry- Senn

(1) Maill- Rent

(1) Jain- Clancy

(10)No Votes- Joe, Dom, Cleo, Newan, Herwynbe, Ament, Damon, Odustren, Riew, Larry

 

And here's the vote count once Night 3 started:

 

(3) Wyra- Wilson, Ashette, Maill

(2) Eoladdin- Peng, Wyra

(2) Peng- Jain, Lord Ostrich

(2) Lord Ostrich- Eoladdin, Herwynbe

(1) Ament- Melend

(1) Larry- Senn

(1) Maill- Rent

(1) Jain- Clancy

(11) No Votes- Joe, Dom, Cleo, Newan, Ament, Damon, Odustren, Riew, Larry, Reeco, Aralis, Baron Von Piffertiff

 

[lovingly copy-pasted, btw]

 

Aralis's vote was removed from Eol and into the no-vote pile. 

Since no other votes were changed, then we can assume that he was Soothed rather than him Rioting someone.

(When people Riot, their vote goes to the No Vote pile, correct?) 

 

Either someone wanted Wyrm dead or someone wanted Eol alive. Based on that, we should be suspicious of Wilson, because he not only voted for Wyrm, but also has been very active in protecting Eol. Any other suspects would be appreciated. 

 

It is also interesting to note that Aralis states that he is in contact with someone who claims to have Soothed Wilson. Assuming this is true, then I theorized a few possibilities: 

Either Aralis Rioted Wilson after Person X Soothed him (seems too complicated, plus nothing would really be gained from that)

Somebody was expecting something like this and Rioted Wilson into his original spot (but I don't know if that's a thing to do)

Wilson is a Smoker (which may or may not make him a target, as Seekers can't determine their alignment)

 

Again, this is based on Aralis both telling the truth and Person X getting their Soothing orders in. Aralis, has Person X said anything about this?

 

 

Big post, compensating for all the others.

If I missed anything, feel free to edit, snip, snap, berate, dismiss, or downright sneer at. With words, although picture messages aren't frowned upon.

Oh, and if anyone wants to join the Baron for tea, his doors are open to people who ask. Well, ask and the Baron says 'yes' to. You can't be too inviting these days.

[little wilson she/her]

Okay. This took far longer than I’d anticipated, although I did collect a lot more data than I a did last night, so that probably has something to do with it. I’d apologize to everyone--but especially Araris--for the wall of text you’re about to get. Fortunately, there will be a lot of quotes to break it up. Does that make it better?

 

There are two situations I’d like to focus on. Eol’s Social Experiment and The Lynch on Satrams. I’ll mostly be paraphrasing what people say, unless I want to make specific mention of their wording or bring special note to a certain part of the post. Regardless, all links to the original posts will be given.

 

Eol’s Social Experiment

 

The first evidence of Eol’s Social Experiment began with this post by Winter at 6:37 am MST on Saturday.

 

How are we going to find out the Seeking results if we don't reveal who the Seekers are, exactly?

 

 

Kas responded 3 minutes later with an explanation about the seeker role and such, and Winter followed up at 6:43 with a little more information about the situation:

 

If someone accuses me of being a role, but if I'm not actually the role, then what do I say in this thread? I could say they aren't a Seeker, but that isn't confirmed. They could have Seeked someone else, but just guessed on me.

 

 

Renegade responded almost an hour after that:

 

I'd suggest revealing their name in-thread, and saying that they failed to correctly Seek your role.  That would basically narrow it down to either them or you being Spiked (or a Villager trying to pull off a crazy gambit).

 

And Winter, 2 minutes later.

 

I’d like to point out that she has been extremely reasonable and rational up to this point. She didn’t jump out and accuse Eol, but she brought it up for discussion in the thread, asking questions and divulging information, but not revealing too much. And the responses, particularly that by Ren, were good.

 

Wyrm responded at 7:56 am MST. The pertinent part of his post is the first paragraph:

 

If they're trying to bluff being a Seeker, then they're almost certainly an Eliminator. The possibility of them being a and trying to draw fire is a little silly, since it just makes us focus on someone who's on our side.

 

The rest of his post emphasizes the fact that there are no safe roles in the game so we need to be wary of Seekers. This is a very valid point that still holds up now. Back to the quoted part though. This initially seems like a reasonable point, and it is. However, looking at it with a little more knowledge on the situation as it unfolds later, I find it interesting that without know who did it and what exactly was done, much less an explanation on the part of the person, Wyrm says that “they’re almost certainly a manipulator,” because no one on our side could possibly do this. For the most part, that’s right. But crazy Villager-led gambits happen (like Gamma’s gambit against Joe in LG3). Not often, but they do. I find it interesting that before any more information is here, he says this.

 

Another point here is that by saying that the person is almost certainly an eliminator, it sets things up at least a bit for this post by Ostrich, posted less than 10 minutes later.

 

I was accused of being a certain role by the same user who accused Winter Cloud. If you have suffered accusations, please contact us.

 

It’s the wording here that intrigues me, “accused” and “suffered,” when he could use far less provoking words. Add to that the fact that he wants to take the whole discussion about it into PMs and I’m concerned. I understand if they just want to make sure they were all accused by the same person and accused of the same role. But why must they have further discussion than that? Wouldn’t it be better to discuss that fully here in the thread? Behind scenes makes it much easier for someone to manipulate others, turning reasonable suspicion into “Let’s kill who did this.” And I have reason to believe that’s exactly what happened. But before we get to that point, let’s carry on.

 

There’s are a few questions brought up by Mek, Wyrm, and Maill about the pseudo-Seeker. Mek’s post was about 3 hours after Ostrich’s, at 11:16 am MST, with Wyrm’s at 11:26 am, and Maill’s at 1:10 pm. Then Maill posted again at 1:42, voting for Eol and revealing him as the person behind it and wanting to know why he’s fishing for roles. Less than a minute later, Ostrich also responded with a vote on Eol, not having seen Maill’s post, but deciding that he’s going to keep his vote on Eol. He also mentions that Eol’s been asking about the Tineye specifically.

 

Lord Pifferdoo replies 3 minutes later, mentions that he’s not sure what exactly Eol is trying to do but that the message was rather blunt. Wyrm responds at 1:57 pm, wondering why Eol would contact people like this, but that he won’t vote for him yet as he would like an explanation. Ren thinks that if Eol is spiked, he’s trying to get some of those 5 to be trusted, but Ren isn’t sure how expects to get away with all of it. Ostrich, at 2:43 pm, echoes Wyrm’s call for an explanation from Eol, before the votes are finalized.

 

Renegade, at 4:16 pm, says that he thinks Eol is a Spiked Tineye. I’d quote this one, but it’s rather long. The point is that there are some discrepancies with it, in the light of the knowledge we learned after this--like that far more players were contacted than we’d initially thought. He also acknowledges that this is “awfully early” for the Spiked to “pull this kind of stunt.”

 

Claincy, at 4:45 pm, says that he doesn’t think Eol is spiked. The gambit probably isn’t likely to bear any fruit, and to paint a target on yourself just on the chance you find a Tineye isn’t a great plan. He mentions that team factor in planning with Spiked and how, if Eol was Spiked, his team would’ve discouraged it. He acknowledged that if Eol is a Spiked Tineye, it’s possible but it’s a “rather brash and risky action,” and ultimately, Claincy thinks Eol isn’t, but that feeling isn’t certain.

 

At 5:21 pm, Jain said he was also contacted by Eol, but that Eol said the messages were an “icebreaker.” Jain thinks that because Eol hasn’t stepped forward to defend himself, he seems “awfully erratic, if not suspicious.” This “icebreaker” comment was backed up 40 minutes later by Weiry. I’d like to bring particular mention to these two comments, since both of them substantiate Eol’s statement that this was a social experiment. They were an “icebreaker” meant to start conversation, although admittedly, icebreakers should relieve tension, and this did quite the opposite. Still, it is a way to start a conversation, particularly in these types of games.

 

Seonid posted at 6:16, worried about the bandwagon on Eol. S/he would like a day 1 lynch with more info, and it doesn’t seem like we’re likely to get one by lynching Eol, whether he’s Spiked or not.

 

Winter returns to the thread at 6:23, about 11.5 hours after her last post in the thread, saying that she is “convinced” that Eol is an eliminator. However, she’s not going to vote for him, as she doesn’t want to be part of a bandwagon. This post intrigues me, despite it’s shortness. The last time she posted, she was reasonable. She was rational. She was discussing. She was suspicious, but she wasn’t so certain as to need a lynch. What changed? ….We don’t know. She was in PMs that entire time. But her stance is a quite a flip. I’m certain she was manipulated.

 

The next post was me, at 6:47. I mentioned that there were only two votes on Eol, so not a bandwagon and that he hadn’t defended himself yet, probably because his plan was working out exactly like he wanted. I then backed up Ren’s idea of the Spiked Tineye and explained it a little more, saying that there were a couple who bit on Eol’s PMs.

 

Ren posted at 7:24, not knowing what to do but that even if he is a Tineye, we might not want to lynch him. However, if we do, we’ll gain some information about who to trust/who not to trust depending on his alignment.

 

Seonid, at 7:36, needs to think because I had “disturbingly good reasoning” (of which, I’m not proud of, by the way), and find Eol more suspicious now. S/He doesn’t want to vote yet, but they’re leaving the option open. The fact that Eol’s been online but hasn’t defended himself could be telling.

 

Eol finally arrives, at 8:16 pm. He apologizes for not replying and gives the reasons why--he’s either been asleep or at work, so he’s checked the thread, but hasn’t been able to respond. He’ll respond shortly.

 

In the time he’s writing his response, Mek, Araris, and Seonid post. Mek says that while it’s a “pretty dumb strategy” for an eliminator to stick their neck out like that in sending a bunch of “scary-looking PMs,” the “nature of his inquiry is suspicious.” Tineyes are better left anonymous. He votes for Eol. Araris doesn’t think killing Eol is imperative as he doesn’t have a dangerous role if we’re right about him being a Tineye. Plus, the spiked probably have an emotional allomancer. Seonid says that s/he wants to hear the defense before deciding about the innocence.

 

Eol’s explanation. Posted at 9:04 pm. First, he listed the players contacted, and the times the messages were sent. He then listed the players not contacted and provides reasons for why (either intimidation or he couldn’t find them in the messenger).

 

As to why I did what I did.

It’s no secret that a lot of value is placed on peoples past behaviours, habits and their general game styles, and this becomes a big advantage to the more experienced players who have been playing with each other for some time. What I did, and I loath to call it trolling or phishing, was more an experiment. I wanted to see how people would react to edgy or sensitive stimulus, and what would be more sensitive than an accusation about roles. In doing so I could gauge them as a player, and continue profiling people and lessen the gap between more experienced players and myself, as a newer member.

 

It has already been pointed out that expecting to ferret out a tineye or any other pertinent information would be foolhardy, and I completely agree. I no way do I trust or plan to act on acting upon any information in the replies to my experiment, as I respect anyone who plays this game far too much to believe that they would give me anything usable. However the tone and the wording or any other indications I can find about someone’s personality will go down in my notes and I hope, help me later on.

 

Perhaps some may see my actions as foolish, suspicious or erratic, and if I die for doing something outside the expected, then so be it.

 

Any questions please ask away.

 

Emphasis mine. What he says is true: a lot of players place value on past behaviors and play styles. That’s fact. That’s part of the reason a lot of people have remained silent in this game, because they feel they don’t have much to add. I don’t think that’s a good thing. Eol came up with a way to somewhat close the gap and put him in a position to participate better. He acted on it. Foolish, yes. He didn’t expect it to bear fruit (which he acknowledges here, and many others acknowledged. And, in fact, only one PM did bear fruit in the form of a bite. So he was mostly right).

 

Then comes some discussion about it, from Mek and Araris with Eol responding to them. Ash debated with Eol about it, with Ash insisting that it’s more logical for Eol to a Spiked Tineye, since he didn’t continue talking to gather more information. Ash laid out a better way to do the plan, involving Claincy and I beforehand. Eol replied that Ash is being to paranoid and while short answers may only provide a starting point for the profile, other people may have been more talkative. He didn’t think it would be discussed as much in the thread as it was.

 

Ultimately, in the course of all this, Araris, Newan, Joe, Claincy, Wyrm, Ash (who was swayed by the debate they had), dowanx, me, and Mek (due to a comment I made about this) were convinced at least enough to say he probably wasn’t spiked, although different people had varying levels of suspicion remaining on him. Winter retained her suspicions on him, but declined to vote. Kas stated both sides of the issue, equally. And Ostrich, who was called out by Wyrm, initially removed his vote after saying he didn’t like the trolling attempt and is a new player and paranoid. Wyrm responded to him, admitting such a tactic could be worrisome. Ostrich later voting again for Eol, without providing any other statement that “I still have my suspicions on him. I questioned him as to the nature of those suspicions, but he did not respond.

 

In the midst of this, with about 23 hours left in the cycle, Kas asked us not to focus so much on Eol, since we still need more open discussion.

 

For the most part, most of us who were active ended up agreeing with Eol. The biggest outlier is Ostrich. But that’s not surprising, since he initiated a PM, keeping relevant discussion out of the thread, and when he noticed that the other two people in the PM with him were suspicious of Eol and therefore easy to sway more, he pushed hard on a lynching, despite all his claims in the thread about wanting to wait for an explanation. He has also never provided more details as to his suspicions outside of reminding us, almost like a broken record, that he’s a new player.

 

Besides Ostrich, notes should be taken of Renegade, Wyrm, and myself. Renegade for being the first to mention the Spiked Tineye idea. Wyrm for circumstantial evidence which ties him to Ostrich (mostly in the form of his first post setting up Ostrich’s call for PMs and also the vote on Ostrich and near-immediate removal), and my usage of Ren’s Spiked Tineye Theory to persuade others to Eol’s guilt before giving him time to post.

 

-----------

 

I’m seriously running out of time. It is now 10:25, and the rollover is at 11. I’m going to post this all right now, and start on The Lynch on Satrams to post tomorrow. I’m sorry this isn’t all of it. I’m trying to do as thorough of a job as I can. And I know there’s not much actual analysis in this section. My plan is to do full analysis on both parts, connecting them together and all of that, after the Lynch on Satrams section. Again, I’m sorry this isn’t everything I said it would be. I wasn’t able to start until I got off work, which wasn’t until 5, so I started at about 5:30 or so. Basically, I’ve been working on this for 5 straight hours. No joke. My neck hurts, my back hurts, my eyes are starting to hurt, my brain sort of hurts, and I’m very tired. You’ll get the rest after I get some sleep. (And, technically, work again. >> )

Edited January 9, 2015 by little wilson
BBCode errors

[Metacognition he/him]

Day 3: A Disbelief in Taxes

 

Aralis sat on his front porch in his favorite chair as the remnant rays of light from the sun slowly gave way to the coming night. He didn’t fear the mists anymore. When you lived as long as he had, they were more like a constant companion than a force to be afraid of. Besides, he had never believe in those fanciful stories people told about Mistwraiths. Just a lot of mumbo jumbo if you asked him and so he liked to sit out here on his porch and greet the mists as they seemed to pour out of the ground.

 

He sat there rocking in silent contentment for awhile, just feeling the cool caress of the mists after the heat of the day. Those youngins might fret about riches or relationships, but Aralis knew that it was the simple things in life that really mattered.

 

He didn’t hear the figure approach from behind him, but he felt him.

 

“The Koloss are coming,” said the voice.

 

Aralis grunted. “You kids and your stories. There’s no such thing as Koloss. Never was, never will be. Go back to bed and let an old man rest in peace.”

 

There was a pause, as if the person behind him didn’t know what to say or think. Eventually, a reply came.

 

“There are too such a thing as Koloss.”

 

“Nope.”

 

“Yeah-huh, and they really are marching on your little town!”

 

Aralis snorted. “And next you’re going to tell me that you’re one of those Spiked people that everyone has been going on about and that you’re here to ‘kill’ me, right?”

 

Another pause. “...yes?”

 

“Bah, I don’t have time for your childish games. Go try to fool someone else and leave me be.”

 

“But, but I really am! And we really are! Who do you think burned down the barracks?”

 

“Cooking fire accident.”

 

“.....And the death of the Alchemist?”

 

“Mistakes happen when working with volatile ingredients.”

 

“With an axe in his head?!?”

 

“Very volatile ingredients.”

 

“Okay then, what about Karnad, huh? We pushed him off the wall!”

 

“Slipped when he was trying to escape this town because he foolishly believed in fairytales.”

 

An exasperated sigh came from behind Aralis and then a sword appeared through his chest. It was dripping blood, but Aralis felt no pain.

 

“Oh, yes, very lifelike,” Aralis said. “What magician’s shop did you pick up this little trick?”

 

The figure behind him cried out in anger and disbelief and the sword disappeared. Aralis didn’t see it again, as it chopped off his head this time….

 

______________________________________________________________________

 

Rent surveyed the town square, admiring his handiwork. He thought he’d even outsmarted himself this time! The ladder had been pulled up out of the pit and there was a sign that hung from it that said, “15 boxings tu use.” He had evenly distributed a fine layering of ash to the entire square to hide his trap and it had only taken him most of the night!

 

By morning, he’d be ready to start really collecting taxes on those that passed through his territory!

 

He felt pretty proud of himself and was about to go spend some of the taxes he’d collected off of that Herwynbe fellow (at least one person in this town recognized his authority!) when he noticed something amiss. There was a small, shiny object halfway across the square.

 

Lord Rulah! He thought. Can’t have anything outta place! Might tip someone off.

 

As he approached the object, he figured out what it was and couldn’t believe his good luck.

 

Free Taxes! He thought with a grin and there was a spring in his step as he neared the dropped coin.

 

As he reached down to pick it up, the coin slid a few meters to the left. Rent jumped as if he’d been goosed, but continued to stare at the coin. Coins weren’t supposed to move like that, were they?

 

He tried again and again, the coin slid along the same path.

 

Ain’t no way some rusting coin is gettin the better of me!

 

He leaped at the coin, but again, it just drifted further from him. As he brushed himself off, he tried to psych the coin out by going around it and approaching it from the other direction.

 

It shot off between his legs.

 

“Blasted coin! Come ere already!” He yelled as he started to chase the coin down.

 

He was so focused on the coin, that he didn’t realize where he had stepped until he heard creaking of lightweight timber and felt the ground start to give away from him. He didn’t even have time to shout before he was plunged into darkness.

 

He rubbed his head from where he had knocked it in the fall into his own trap. He stood and turned full circle, looking for a way out of the hole, but he didn’t find one.

 

He grinned. Yep, this will do nicely once I get out of here! You’ve done it this time, Rent! Soon everyone will be paying you what yer rightfully due!

 

It seemed that someone couldn’t wait though. A shower of coins sped through the night and into Rent’s trap with a little/lot more force than Rent would’ve liked since they pierced right through him.

 

______________________________________________________________________

 

With Reeco too exhausted to clean up the writings left by the errant artists, they went looking for a new location. They found one.

 

Baron Von Piffertiff liked having banners on the front of his mansion that had his family’s seal on them, one hanging on each side of the entrance.

 

When the villagers woke up, they found them both covered in writing instead.

 

The one on the right read:

 

Findthetruths

findtheblood

findthefire

findthewood

findthewater

findtheair

findthestone

findthedeath

findthesecretbut

thereisneveranothersecretnevereverever.

 

And the one on the left read:

 

Citizens of Tyrian Falls: Don't forget to play fair with these messages first. Remember that your loyalty is to the town. Don't give up!

SaoKiiDaaTeoAonShaoTiaAhaDeoEonDaoDeoTeoKaiKaiKiiDeoIdoAhaYLoveXAonShaoNaeRao2OmiMaiSaoAreTeoKai

SaoYDaaAhaNaeAreNaeKiiDeoEonDaoRao2TeoKaiKaiKiiMaiTeoYTiaDaoEonDaoEon

TeoDaaAonTiaIdoMaiDaaKiiNaeGoldShaoKaiNaeEnaSaoYTiaKaiShaoYIdoRao2TeoTiaDeoTeoDeoYKiiSaoDeoSao

ZTeoRao2NaeDaoKaiAhaMaiKiiXSaoAreRii2KaiKaiOmiKiiSaoOmiDeoDeoTeoDaoKai

Rii2DeoYZTeoKaiXLoveDaaKiiOmiIdoZAhaOmiIdoEnaTeoNaeDaaSaoAonSaoKiiDeoYDeoEon

ZRao2TiaYShaoNaeRii2KaiKaiOmiTeoDaaDeoIdoOmiSightEonShaoNaeShaoDaoKaiDeoEnaLoveTeoTiaSaoGoldTeo

KiiXDeoEnaTiaDaoEnaTeoDeoKiiEonTiaSaoKaiRii2SaoNaeEo

DaoKiiSightYTiaSaoIdoGoldKii

YNaeYDaaTiaNaeLoveNaeDeoSaoOmiDeoKaiOmiSaoKiiSaoAhaSightXEonIdoRii2KaiMaiOmiEonTiaRao2DeoNaeKii

SightYKaiDeoKiiDaaIdoSaoDeoOmiSaoKiiOmiEnaKaiOmiIdoMaiRii2Rao2AhaZSightSaoKaiDeoOmiIdoXTeoDaoEon

DaoSightKaiTeoDeoDaaOmiDeoZRao2IdoXTeoDaoMaiRao2IdoRao2ZDaaTeoLoveXTeoRii2KaiDeoRii2DeoXAreOmi

NaeIdoYMai

Rii2KaiNaeDeoXIdoOmiRao2DeoYYRii2AhaSaoTeoKaiLoveKiiDeoOmiSaoSightDaaLovrKaiTeoTeoLoveDeoOmi

SightZYSaoIdoEonIdoEonOmiMaiSaoYKaiDeoSightXAhaTiaRao2TeoShaoTeoOmiSaoDaoDeoDeoOmiSaoMaiTia

Rii2NaeAre

YNaeRii2KaiTeoMaiOmiEonTeoVIdoEonYMaiKiiDaaNaeEnaOmiKaiRao2IdoLoveSaoMaiDeoRao2EnaTiaSightDeoOmi

KaiDeoXIdoEonSightMaiEnaSaoTiaNaeDeoKaiTeoKaiDeoRii2SaoMaiAhaAhaTeoKaiKiiMaiTeoAonKaiRii2KaiDeoTeo

OmiNaeRao2TeoKaiDaoShaoNaeKaiAonLoveTeoNaeNaeAha

NaeKiiRii2KaiTiaNaeRao2SaoYDeoTiaDeoEonSightKiiXDeoSao

SaoEnaXSightDeoDaaEonSightRao2VSaoRii2TeoKaiZKiiRii2KaiIdoOmiKaiTeoDaaAhaTeoAreIdoOmiMaiTeoNaeEon

DaoSightNaeIdoEnaDeoTeoRii2AonAhaTiaAhaDeoEon

KiiNaeIdoEonTeoNaeDaoTeoKiiNaeRii2KaiOmiIdoDeoKaiTiaKaiRao2YDeoRao2TeoAreKaiOmiYTeoOmiDeoEonGold

KaiSightDeoDaaXSightShaoAhaEnaGoldIdoSaoYTeoTeoAreXSao

SaoEnaZTiaAonKaiDaoLoveDaaSaoZTeoSaoV

OmiMaiNaeTeoGoldOmiNaeDeoKaiNaeDeoDaoLoveKiiAonTeoTiaYDeoRii2NaeKaiNaeEnaYOmiShaoRii2SaoYTeo

LoveDeoOmiTiaAhaMaiAonSaoRii2MaiKaiYKaiTiaTeoDeoSao

SaoEnaEonKiiXSightYSightShaoDaoKaiYKaiDeoLoveDaaSightTeoTeoLoveKiiDaaSaoYTiaAhaTeoAreSaoIdoDeoEon

TeoDaaTiaAhaMaiShaoAonAhaTiaTeo

TeoAhaNaeKaiZTiaMaiDeo!

-Endurance without an N

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Day 3 Begins! There are 48 hours left in the day! Good Luck!

 

Rent was a Village Tineye!

Aralis was a Village Seeker!

 

Updated Player List

Edited January 9, 2015 by Metacognition

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Looking at who died, I would guess that either Rent told someone what his Role was, or that the Spiked managed to Seek him with a Seeker or a Mistborn. Probably the latter, since we're being careful with our Roles this game (or at least, as far as I know we are). I think that they must have a Mistborn (as well as or instead of a Seeker), since I would be very doubtful that one of us would take out Rent otherwise. I'm not considering that they have a Coinshot, since there'd be no reason for them not to use it every Night if they did indeed have one.

 

Araris' death though... I'd doubt he'd tell his Role to someone he hadn't checked before. As such, I think the only place it can come from is because he admitted that he was in contact with a Soother. The Spiked probably took a gamble (as much as it was one) that he only knew someone else's Role because he was a Seeker. Unfortunately for us, it paid off for them rather well. Hopefully Araris wasn't our only Seeker, but for now we should assume that he was. Hopefully there are at least two of us who are in contact who trust each other from the Night 0 and Night 1 Seeking.

 

Vote-wise though... I'm not sure who to look at at the moment, to be perfectly honest. I'm still looking closely at the people who voted for me, and at Eol (since a vote for him was Soothed away), and so while Wilson explained Mailliw's reasoning for voting for me, I'd quite like to hear it from him as well.

Edited January 9, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Newan he/him]

My job search is still in progress, so I'm still not able to fully commit to this game.  I'm really sorry about that.  Hopefully that will change within the next few days!

[Seonid he/him]

Ok, I now finally have time to post a longer analysis. On the other hand, an awful lot more has happened since I last posted. Pretty much none of it has been good for us (except for Wilson giving long summary posts. Having the information organized like that is quite helpful). Losing Araris and Ren both is a blow, both in terms of experience and in terms of roles.

 

This double kill indicates one of two things. Either the Spiked have a Mistborn/Coinshot (but, like Wyrm, I find the idea that they would have the Coinshot refrain from killing to be ludicrous - therefore, I think that the Mistborn idea is most likely), or one of the Villagers targeted Ren. I don't know why they would have done that...as in I can honestly not think of a single reason for a non-Spiked Mistborn or Coinshot to target Ren. Not at all. So the Spiked Mistborn may well be a thing.

 

(If you are a Villager, and you did target Ren for reasons that none of us can fathom, please let somebody you trust know. Don't post it in the thread - but do let somebody you are sure of know. They can give us the information while concealing your name and role. I guess this comes down to - don't endanger yourself, but the Village needs this information.)

 

After looking at Wilson's excellent initial analysis of Day 1 stuff, I'd also like to take a look at the close of Day 2. I do not mean this to distract from Wilson's excellent analysis; hopefully it will complement it. So far, the two most disturbing incidents we have had have been the whole tangled mess with Eol, culminating in the lynch on Satrams, and the vote manipulation that moved the lynch from Eol to Wyrm. Since Wilson is taking the first, I'll examine the second.

 

So, known information is that Araris' vote went from Eol to nothing. Since he was not a Rioter, this indicates that he must have been Soothed. (Before his death, however, which revealed his role, I noticed several people saying he couldn't have been a Rioter because nobody else's vote moved. This is not the case, however. What we saw would also have been fully consistent with a Rioter who targeted somebody who was Smoked. Again, his death and the role reveal negate that possibility, but we must keep it in mind for future voting analyses.)

 

Instead of lynching Eol, that vote Soothed turned the lynch to Wyrm instead.

 

This leaves us the all-important question "Why?"

 

I can see several possible situations.

 

1 - Eol is a Spiked, and this was a last, desperate ploy to save him. This doesn't seem likely, as that would be a dead giveaway. Then again, suspicion seems to have moved off of Eol anyways, so a ploy like this might have worked. I still think it to be the least likely of options.

 

1a - A variation on this is that Eol is a Spiked, but that this wasn't about saving him, but was about making us waste our time trying to lynch him again this current day cycle. In this case, he probably would have been Lurched last night to help protect against Coinshots. Us not suspecting him as much anymore is, under this situation, gravy on the top for the Eliminators. This is a more likely scenario than 1, but I still think that this isn't a likely one. The Eol situation reeks of misdirection to me. I suspect one of the following 2 scenarios.

 

2 - Neither Eol or Wyrm is Spiked, but the Spiked are playing this to keep our suspicions on Eol and away from others. They saved him to try to waste our time lynching him again, giving them critical time to hit our most important players, and moved the vote to Wyrm to try to eliminate him without implicating themselves. With all of the suspicion going on between Wyrm and Wilson, if Wyrm had died and been shown innocent, suspicion might have fallen on Wilson (who I am pretty sure is good), thus turning the Village against an important asset. I think that this is the most likely scenario.

 

3 - Eol isn't Spiked, but Wyrm is. This whole scenario was manipulated by the Spiked as a ploy to get us to trust Wyrm, as the target of the manipulated lynch. Since he is a Thug, the Spiked would know his role and that the Lynch wouldn't kill him. (This could also be combined with the whole Eol as a way to waste our time trying to lynch him.) Another slight variant on this scenario would be if Wyrm was the Spiked Mistborn, thus meaning that the Pewter was effective only for that night. In this variant, we would now think we knew both Wyrm's role and alignment, but be mistaken about both.

 

As I said, I think that scenario 2 is the most likely, but we can't afford to discount 1 or 3. I think that we need more discussion in order to decide between them.

 

Also, if anyone sees a possible way to reconcile the information that I haven't covered, let me know. If I didn't get all of the scenarios, we need to put any I missed out there too.

[Metacognition he/him]

Figured I'd do an updated vote list for you guys, since the day is halfway done already. 

 

(1) Maill- Wyra

 

 

.....Huh, well that was easy!