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Posted
3 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I've played with Stick enough to know she jokes about being evil quite a bit :P, I've also played with Stick enough to know that giving (even a tiny) village read to her this early into the game is playing with fire, it's like peeking inside a wolf's mouth, she'll then chomp at her own convenience xD , so I don't usually do that :P. 

With regards to my question to Drake, I assumed what he meant by "by default" was - with regular player counts we'd have one role reach and if the player count was larger, we would possibly start with more than one role. I did not know about the 'donate spikes to village' part. 

Then, let the distro mind-games begin! 

Case - 1: Evil Coinshot Team

Let's start off simple. 21 points required to steal a Coinshot, and hence, no chance of any other combination. Lots of kill power but also, leaves Thug and Lurcher in the hands of the village, and no Smoker protection against Seeker. I'd say the possibility is low, but also, it would be the most obvious case to guess as the game goes on.  It's a game of luck here as they would need to hit Lurcher and Seeker fast, and hope vote manips fall in their favor if used.

Steal Coinshot -> Not likely, favorable in a high risk-appetite team

Case - 2: Vote Manipulation Evil Team 

I saw someone say they doubt the elim team touches these roles, but I actually disagree. It is underrated how brutally effective vote manipulation is in the hands of the elim team. If you don't believe me, ask anyone on the village team from LG83 (not me, I was evil :P). If they steal both Soother and Rioter (16 points in total), they can overcome a 3 vote difference and equalize a 4 vote difference. Sure, it will be obvious if this happened, but we still would have to find out the identities of the Soother and Rioter. There could also be a case where vote manip is not needed to save them at all initially, and in one critical junction later in the game, swish, all the votes swiped off. They can make sure they close-to never get exed. Let's say they invest their other points in either removing Lurcher (4 pts) (kills go through) or Coinshot (4 pts) (remove the possibility of killing them in the night), and removing Smoker (1 pt) (making sure their vote manips go through)[yes, I saw someone claim Smoker, but let me hypothesize smh). I know someone might say fear-mongering but I'm sorry, it has to be stated here that this is a very viable elim strategy.   

Steal Soother & Rioter + Remove Lurcher/Coinshot + Remove Smoker -> Effective strategy, case for caution, case for only 1 vote manip steal with other combinations for a more balanced team also exists

Case - 3: Seeker Protection Evil Team

This is a bit tricky because of the rule that any role can be added any number of times, because yes, the best way to deal with Seeker is to bombard the game with Smokers. Why would they spend 6/8 points to remove or steal Seeker when they can just do this for free? They could also steal a Smoker and make sure 2 of their members are always hidden. Also, if the idea is to remove Seeker, why not just put 2 more points and use it to hunt for power roles? So, I actually think the likelihood that the game does not have Seeker is very less. They have either stolen it or are using some strategies to combat it [(a)donate Smokers to village or (b)steal Smoker or (c)anything else I cannot think of right now]. If they steal Seeker (8 pts), I kinda expect them to steal Smoker as well (3 pts). If the point is to hunt for power roles, there's no point in letting a village Smoker hinder things for them. 

Steal Seeker & Smoker -> Nullifies alignment scans, optimum/ideal strategy

Case - 4: Zero Protection Village Team

Quite simple, they just remove/steal Lurcher and Thug

Additional - 

You can actually merge case 3 and case 4 to form a very balanced team because there would be points for it. Let's say - 

Steal Seeker (8) + Remove Thug (2) + Remove Lurcher (4) + Steal Smoker (3) -> 17

and they'd still be left with 4 points to play around. I'd say that is a solid team. 

If they let Seeker be by flooding the village with Smokers, I'd say replace 'Stealing Seeker' in the above with Stealing Mistborn (7) for more variability.

I'm a smoker, so we can rule out case 2 someone interesting happened 

 

rn, im kinda bored and decided that imma die on the hill that Doc is village, no matter what damning evidence comes up against him :P

only thing I wanna ask, Doc, is why no PMs yet? You busy? Or have you just not opened PMs with everyone

@Doc12

@DrakeMarshall are group PMs allowed?

Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Case - 1: Evil Coinshot Team

Let's start off simple. 21 points required to steal a Coinshot, and hence, no chance of any other combination. Lots of kill power but also, leaves Thug and Lurcher in the hands of the village, and no Smoker protection against Seeker. I'd say the possibility is low, but also, it would be the most obvious case to guess as the game goes on.  It's a game of luck here as they would need to hit Lurcher and Seeker fast, and hope vote manips fall in their favor if used.

Steal Coinshot -> Not likely, favorable in a high risk-appetite team

Steal Seeker & Smoker -> Nullifies alignment scans, optimum/ideal strategy

What about a combine of 1 and 2? Remove coinshot, and steel seeker. That results in the Elims having control over who dies at night and makes sure they don’t get hit by coinshot. Then the seeker lets them know who to hit. Plus this still leaves a few points for removing smoker and/or stealing rioter or soother

Edited by Ookla the Broken
And/or
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ookla the Broken said:

What about a combine of 1 and 2? Remove coinshot, and steel seeker. That results in the Elims having control over who dies at night and makes sure they don’t get hit by coinshot. Then the seeker lets them know who to hit. Plus this still leaves a few points for removing smoker and/stealing rioter or soother

Quite possible! Like I said, the combinations are a lot, and monopolizing the kills in the night is a good tactic, but it drags out the game a lot with only 1 kill in the night. The more the game drags on, the more villagers they need to get executed/ the more cycles they need to dodge execution. In my experience, the elim are kinda okay to let the village Coinshot be as long as they was direct the discussion and feel like they can direct the Coinshot through it. False shots from the village Coinshot can sometimes helps us clear a contentious player, but it always helps the elims reduce one of our numbers. It is quite rate to witness a v!Coinshot get accurate kills in a row (but boy, it is a beautiful sight: :P) 

Right, rollover is at 5am for me sigh ;-; 

The one that's giving me the most 'kinda elim' vibes is Araris, I'll see if I can stay on longer to see if it changes but beauty sleep is important :P. 

Have a look out for Exp, usually low activity is an indication of e!Exp. But I really do not want to vote for activity reasons in D1. 

Posted
3 hours ago, Stick. said:

Oh right lmao, but tbf I think I redeemed myself by clutching for us in endgame after I tricked the last elim into thinking the game was mech locked for the village. Fun times

That was certainly a game of all time :P

@Alvron, wanna go tie chasing? 😈

Stick.

Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Stick. said:

@Ookla the Broken how long have u been playing SE/how many games have u played since u joined? same Q to @Ookla the Wanderer and @Ookla the Wallfacer. just curious cuz ur all new faces to me and it’ll be nice to know if im underestimating ur skills lol

I believe this is my ~7th game.

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

There are 16 players so my gut says probably 4 elims. In a v!coinshot game I could see there being 5 elims, but with elims choosing the distro there's no way there's 5 this game.

  Hide contents

Base 1 kill/day/night
D1: 12-4
D2: 10-4
D3: 8-4
D4: 6-4 (probably last day with 5 elims)
D5: 4-4 (probably last day with 4 elims)

w/ coinshot
D1: 12-4
D2: 9-4
D3: 6-4 (probably last day unless coinshot hits an elim)

I was going to say a decent bit more about my role distro guess but this game seems surprisingly more PM safe than some past ones soooo... I'm not going to share any thoughts yet on what I think the role distro actually is... but I suspect currently that the elims didn't touch the rioter/soother roles.

I think Araris is still doing that by advocating for a player's death. Even though it's not a strong read, if Araris or Stick flips evil later, this info will still be helpful. I will say, I haven't played with you in years @Araris Valerian... but what happened to the bloodthirstiness? lol

Some people have been commenting on my Doc vote? idk to be frank I've been talking to Doc about how I'm going to get revenge for last game so that was just a reference to that. It wasn't even really a poke, hence why I moved it once I had a vote I was somewhat interested in... Also... I... don't know how to respond to calling my post chatgpt-ish?? I can't believe you'd say something so hurtful to a fellow villager : P

I will say a lot of my posts are very rambly and I usually start games trying to write more concise and direct and then fall apart quickly... but I do like being straight to the point lol.

I haven't unvoted TJ? I haven't posted in hours.

To be honest, if I was not me this game I'd start to be strangely suspicious of the whole conversation around me. You're hedging hard on me, Araris and IHAT immediately jump to my defense advocating for counter trains. Ookla the Story saying they're potentially sus with no vote. Then Honor jumps in and "pokes" the leading counter train...

I very much trust Ookla the Redeemed atm... the going after me and Araris feels good even though I disagree with logic on both.

Anyways, I'm very pro new-trains and chaos and Im not liking the TJ train at the moment so...

TJ
Fura

 

Edit:

TJ (3): Exp/Ookla the Counter, Ookla Broken, Vessel of Honor

Stick (2): Mippo (Ookla the Story), Araris 

Fura(2): Ookla the Redeemed/Hoid, Fura

Hoid (the Redeemed) (1): IHAT/Ookla the Broken

Pooh Bear (1): Jo

Jo (1): Twin/Ookla the Wanderer

TOW (the Hoppy) (1): KSauce/Ookla the Wallfacer

A self vote? Interesting.

34 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I've played with Stick enough to know she jokes about being evil quite a bit :P, I've also played with Stick enough to know that giving (even a tiny) village read to her this early into the game is playing with fire, it's like peeking inside a wolf's mouth, she'll then chomp at her own convenience xD , so I don't usually do that :P. 

I was going to vote Stick, but now...

Edit: @DrakeMarshall I'd assumed this was an LG so I'd miscalculated before but I'll probably miss all of the Night.

Edited by Ookla the Wallfacer
Posted
54 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I've played with Stick enough to know she jokes about being evil quite a bit :P, I've also played with Stick enough to know that giving (even a tiny) village read to her this early into the game is playing with fire, it's like peeking inside a wolf's mouth, she'll then chomp at her own convenience xD , so I don't usually do that :P. 

With regards to my question to Drake, I assumed what he meant by "by default" was - with regular player counts we'd have one role reach and if the player count was larger, we would possibly start with more than one role. I did not know about the 'donate spikes to village' part. 

Then, let the distro mind-games begin! 

Case - 1: Evil Coinshot Team

Let's start off simple. 21 points required to steal a Coinshot, and hence, no chance of any other combination. Lots of kill power but also, leaves Thug and Lurcher in the hands of the village, and no Smoker protection against Seeker. I'd say the possibility is low, but also, it would be the most obvious case to guess as the game goes on.  It's a game of luck here as they would need to hit Lurcher and Seeker fast, and hope vote manips fall in their favor if used.

Steal Coinshot -> Not likely, favorable in a high risk-appetite team

Case - 2: Vote Manipulation Evil Team 

I saw someone say they doubt the elim team touches these roles, but I actually disagree. It is underrated how brutally effective vote manipulation is in the hands of the elim team. If you don't believe me, ask anyone on the village team from LG83 (not me, I was evil :P). If they steal both Soother and Rioter (16 points in total), they can overcome a 3 vote difference and equalize a 4 vote difference. Sure, it will be obvious if this happened, but we still would have to find out the identities of the Soother and Rioter. There could also be a case where vote manip is not needed to save them at all initially, and in one critical junction later in the game, swish, all the votes swiped off. They can make sure they close-to never get exed. Let's say they invest their other points in either removing Lurcher (4 pts) (kills go through) or Coinshot (4 pts) (remove the possibility of killing them in the night), and removing Smoker (1 pt) (making sure their vote manips go through)[yes, I saw someone claim Smoker, but let me hypothesize smh). I know someone might say fear-mongering but I'm sorry, it has to be stated here that this is a very viable elim strategy.   

Steal Soother & Rioter + Remove Lurcher/Coinshot + Remove Smoker -> Effective strategy, case for caution, case for only 1 vote manip steal with other combinations for a more balanced team also exists

Case - 3: Seeker Protection Evil Team

This is a bit tricky because of the rule that any role can be added any number of times, because yes, the best way to deal with Seeker is to bombard the game with Smokers. Why would they spend 6/8 points to remove or steal Seeker when they can just do this for free? They could also steal a Smoker and make sure 2 of their members are always hidden. Also, if the idea is to remove Seeker, why not just put 2 more points and use it to hunt for power roles? So, I actually think the likelihood that the game does not have Seeker is very less. They have either stolen it or are using some strategies to combat it [(a)donate Smokers to village or (b)steal Smoker or (c)anything else I cannot think of right now]. If they steal Seeker (8 pts), I kinda expect them to steal Smoker as well (3 pts). If the point is to hunt for power roles, there's no point in letting a village Smoker hinder things for them. 

Steal Seeker & Smoker -> Nullifies alignment scans, optimum/ideal strategy

Case - 4: Zero Protection Village Team

Quite simple, they just remove/steal Lurcher and Thug

Additional - 

You can actually merge case 3 and case 4 to form a very balanced team because there would be points for it. Let's say - 

Steal Seeker (8) + Remove Thug (2) + Remove Lurcher (4) + Steal Smoker (3) -> 17

and they'd still be left with 4 points to play around. I'd say that is a solid team. 

If they let Seeker be by flooding the village with Smokers, I'd say replace 'Stealing Seeker' in the above with Stealing Mistborn (7) for more variability.

Personally, the idea I posed to Fura when he asked for what I’d do as elim was plain get rid of Thug, Lurcher, Coinshot and Mistborn and steal Seeker

It’s a boring game, but it’s also quite safe for elims

I’m really liking TJ right now, so I’d rather not kill him today

Can we get a VC?

I’m looking at Fura with a different angle now that I see his PM strategy (the results of which I’m still hoping he’ll divulge) so I am open to backing another train

Posted
2 hours ago, Ookla The Vessel Of Honor said:

Ohhhhhhh ok thanks um I’m gonna recast my vote

Can I vote Ookla the story

To unvote, put the player's name in bold green, then just vote on a new player as normal.

I'm still happy with my vote on Stick, and I don't really think much has changed since I placed it. Except apparently TJ isn't happy with me being happy to switch onto him.

I'm happy to chat with folks in PMs, and will probably send out 1-2 during the night.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

To unvote, put the player's name in bold green, then just vote on a new player as normal.

I'm still happy with my vote on Stick, and I don't really think much has changed since I placed it. Except apparently TJ isn't happy with me being happy to switch onto him.

I'm happy to chat with folks in PMs, and will probably send out 1-2 during the night.

wait who's this games IM?

Posted

I'm changing my vote. Based on PM and general attitude, I've become a bit suspicious.

Stick.

Fura

Posted
Just now, Ookla The Story said:

I'm changing my vote. Based on PM and general attitude, I've become a bit suspicious.

Stick.

Fura

care to elaborate?

what went done in PMs?

Posted
5 minutes ago, Ookla the Wanderer said:

care to elaborate?

what went done in PMs?

He felt too nice (sorry Fura), and I could be totally wrong, but I asked him who he thought the elims were, and he didn't answer for a long time. He said he didn't see my message, but it said he had read it. Again, could be wrong on that second part.

Posted
1 hour ago, Ookla the Redeemed said:

Personally, the idea I posed to Fura when he asked for what I’d do as elim was plain get rid of Thug, Lurcher, Coinshot and Mistborn and steal Seeker

It’s a boring game, but it’s also quite safe for elims

I’m really liking TJ right now, so I’d rather not kill him today

Can we get a VC?

I’m looking at Fura with a different angle now that I see his PM strategy (the results of which I’m still hoping he’ll divulge) so I am open to backing another train

TJ (2): Exp, Honour's Ghost

Stick (2): Araris, TUO

Fura (3): Hoid, Fura, Mippo

Hoid (1): IHAT

Araris (2): Jo, TJ

Jo (1): Storm

TOW (1): KSauce

I think. Might be wrong.

Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Ookla the Wallfacer said:

TJ (2): Exp, Honour's Ghost

Stick (2): Araris, TUO

Fura (3): Hoid, Fura, Mippo

Hoid (1): IHAT

Araris (2): Jo, TJ

Jo (1): Storm

TOW (1): KSauce

I think. Might be wrong.

not loving this situation rn

TJ

who doesn't love a little bit of tie madness? :P 

Edited: looking back, I don't want to exe TJ, since we can learn a lot abt him after the Night due to his role analysis

I also don't wanna exe Stick or Fura either

ig a tie works tho

6 minutes ago, Ookla The Story said:

He felt too nice (sorry Fura), and I could be totally wrong, but I asked him who he thought the elims were, and he didn't answer for a long time. He said he didn't see my message, but it said he had read it. Again, could be wrong on that second part.

can you explain why not responding makes you think hes village? Its fine if theres nothing there, and its just based on vibes

Edited by Ookla the Wanderer
Posted
1 minute ago, Ookla the Wanderer said:

not loving this situation rn

TJ

who doesn't love a little bit of tie madness? :P 

Why not 

Stick

TJ (3): Exp, Honour's Ghost, Storm

Stick (3): Araris, TUO, KSauce

Fura (3): Hoid, Fura, Mippo

Hoid (1): IHAT

Araris (2): Jo, TJ

Posted
Just now, Ookla the Wallfacer said:

Why not 

Stick

TJ (3): Exp, Honour's Ghost, Storm

Stick (3): Araris, TUO, KSauce

Fura (3): Hoid, Fura, Mippo

Hoid (1): IHAT

Araris (2): Jo, TJ

Let the Lord of Chaos Rule.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Ookla the Wanderer said:

not loving this situation rn

TJ

who doesn't love a little bit of tie madness? :P 

Edited: looking back, I don't want to exe TJ, since we can learn a lot abt him after the Night due to his role analysis

I also don't wanna exe Stick or Fura either

ig a tie works tho

can you explain why not responding makes you think hes village? Its fine if theres nothing there, and its just based on vibes

Think he's village? What?

Posted

Okay finally back home for the day and I have time to engage and read through the thread, but one thing that is confusing me while skimming, can there be multiple of the same role? I've seen conflicting answers but the rules state that "By default, all allomantic abilities appear exactly once in the game and will be given to villagers. The Spiked get to make changes to that state of affairs in targeted ways during Night 0, creating the distro that the game will actually use." I could see this meaning either:

a) there is one of each role and the only way that elims can change the distro is by using points to steal/kill abilities or

b) they can use their points to meddle, but there are also other ways they can affect the distro on n0 that is not defined in the public rules, which would allow multiple of roles.

@DrakeMarshall are you able to confirm which of these it is?

Posted
2 hours ago, Ookla the Wanderer said:

@DrakeMarshall are group PMs allowed?

Yes!

2 hours ago, Ookla the Wallfacer said:

@DrakeMarshall I'd assumed this was an LG so I'd miscalculated before but I'll probably miss all of the Night.

Alright that’s totally fine

thanks for the heads up

Posted
10 minutes ago, Ookla the Counter said:

Okay finally back home for the day and I have time to engage and read through the thread, but one thing that is confusing me while skimming, can there be multiple of the same role? I've seen conflicting answers but the rules state that "By default, all allomantic abilities appear exactly once in the game and will be given to villagers. The Spiked get to make changes to that state of affairs in targeted ways during Night 0, creating the distro that the game will actually use." I could see this meaning either:

a) there is one of each role and the only way that elims can change the distro is by using points to steal/kill abilities or

b) they can use their points to meddle, but there are also other ways they can affect the distro on n0 that is not defined in the public rules, which would allow multiple of roles.

@DrakeMarshall are you able to confirm which of these it is?

As I understand it, the Spiked can use up their points in removing/stealing roles, but can donate whatever roles they want to the village for free.

Posted

Hi everyone! For everyone asking where I've been all day, first of all Drake insisted on starting the game at midnight when I was asleep, then I had a morning job, and after the job I had something very important.

Meet the newest addition to my family, Syl! (picture attached)

I will start making PMs soon. 

So looks like I arrived in time to see a tie building! Fun!

First of all, there seems to be a mistake in the vote count. By my count, TJ has 4 - unless I'm mistaken,  IHAT/Broken hasn't changed their vote from TJ

TJ (4): Exp, IHAT/Broken, Vessel of Honor,  Storm

Stick (3): Araris, TUO, KSauce

Fura (3): Hoid, Fura, Mippo/Story

Araris (2): Jo, TJ

I am so tempted to throw a vote on Araris because I also like chaos. 

Current thoughts on the tie candidates:

TJ - Current reasoning - poke vote from Exp, IHAT just to continue a train, Honors Ghost to poke, Twin to 'tie'. 

I like TJ because of the analysis they threw together about the possible role combinations. Personally I had no time to even think about making an analysis post like that, so I respect that he's doing that. Yes, it can just as easily be reposting a discussion already had in the elim doc/ an analysis of rules just to seem like they're contributing, but I respect it nonetheless. 

Stick - Araris seems mostly a joke based on past game, TUO for chasing ties, KSOS "why not"

God its been ages since I've played with Stick. Missed you Stick! Stick made a joke about being a team with TJ. not reading into that yet, but something to keep in mind. Gave Hoid a village lean? 

Fura - Reasoning - Hoid doesn't like their attack on TJ, Self vote, Story based on general attitude.

Purely personal opinion is that I like Fura and I want them to stay alive a little longer - before the game started we had a joke going that since I outplayed them last game they'd go after me this game, so I'm not surprised by their vote on me. What is weird is the self-vote. It's an easy out if this does turn into a tie and they can just retract their own vote, which is the only actual strategy I can see playing out here?

So far reasonings are super weak, the only real actual accusations is that Hoid's assertion that Fura's attack on TJ seem weak, and Fura's initial stab at TJ. 

------------------------------------

Other Thoughts

There does seem to be genuine confusion about how multiples of the same role work. I know Jo asked about this in signups but I wasn't paying super close attention, so I'm kind of inclined to lean village on TJ and Exp for now.

Appreciate Araris reminding us that this game is 24/24 cycles. Hoid Slayer's doing analysis, which is fine. It's easy to v/read him so I'm not doing that yet :P 

Ookla the Story and KSOS are throwing out a vote

I like IHAT's energy. Made a couple of observations like how the spread of votes then was ideal ground for soothing/rioting. Been pretty engaged.

Unknown One and Alv are kind of lurking, though Unknown has actually made a vote, it was purely to tie. 

Be back in a bit! I have dinner, then I'll PM.

 

cat.jpg

Posted
10 minutes ago, Ookla the Wallfacer said:

As I understand it, the Spiked can use up their points in removing/stealing roles, but can donate whatever roles they want to the village for free.

Yeah you understand correctly

Posted
34 minutes ago, Ookla The Story said:

He felt too nice (sorry Fura), and I could be totally wrong, but I asked him who he thought the elims were, and he didn't answer for a long time. He said he didn't see my message, but it said he had read it. Again, could be wrong on that second part.

Lol everyone is saying this... did I just come across super mean last game and people assumed thats my normal or something? Lol

Im all for a tie... however, if theres a tie and a villager dies then Alv is evil obviously : P

to those i havent pmed yet im sorry. sorill be back on later but probably not to open more PMs. Feel free to PM me or ill finish opening PMs at night if im still alive.

quick rundown from my PMs, im highly confident that the elims flooded the town with smokers. I may or may not have already said this but im on mobile so im not going to check.

In honor of good honest ties, ill move my vote to Araris and @Doc12 (or someone else) can vote on me lol

Fura

Araris

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