Long Game 104: The Flame of Tar Valon

[Kasimir he/him]

12 hours ago, Aeternum said:

Does this mean you'd assume a less experienced overall elim team? Or more specifically, who would be unlikely to make that kill?

Sorry, I was in and out of briefings all day and missed this, but was planning to do it anyway.

On the face of it - no because the team is often a composite of profiles, and some of it is down to how those profiles/preferences interact/intersect, e.g. a Drake team could easily make this kill if/since Drake just wasn't around to say no. (I do think it's not in Drake's MO to call for a NK on a new player immediately.) I think this is why when Ash does NKA, Ash looks directly for who would call that killshot rather than who could be on a team with that person, and that's a really important distinction because being excluded from calling that kill doesn't mean you're Village.

Something I note that stuck out to me when re-reading N1:

In this interaction between Mark and Teldris, they discuss the new player marker on Teldris's profile, and Gaea confirms this means that Teldris joined recently. Which means there's a possibility the Elims didn't see it, but minimally, if someone online after this conversation made the kill, then they'd have to be someone who doesn't care very much about the new player convention.

My own foray, despite not being the NKA expert Ash is:

<Wiz, Storm, Aet, Ash, Steel, Kas, TUF, Hopper, Drake, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo>

I'll remove myself and Drake, as I know both of us have historically cared about the new player taboo when selecting NK targets.

<Wiz, Storm, Aet, Ash, Steel, Kas, TUF, Hopper, Drake, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo>

I'd remove TUF here. Left to his own devices, TUF makes fairly aggressive NK choices, seeking to remove threats and vocal players. Teldris doesn't really count as one.

<Wiz, Storm, Aet, Ash, Steel, Kas, TUF, Hopper, Drake, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo>

Remove Ash too. I did a quick scan of his most recent Elim game and yeah he does low info and noise kills but he hasn't gone this particular brand of low info.

<Wiz, Storm, Aet, Ash, Steel, Kas, TUF, Hopper, Drake, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo>

I'd like to be able to rule out people in <Wiz, Mark, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo> but I basically just think it's been long enough for them (or in Sart's case, he's uh, self-explanatory  ) that I don't super feel they can be relied on to uphold the taboo. I think Wiz is aware of it given MR67 but could have just as easily forgotten about Teldris. If I were to slightly mark out those in this set I think might not have made the kill:

<Wiz, Storm, Aet, Ash, Steel, Kas, TUF, Hopper, Drake, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo>

Steel joins them in that set because in his recent Elim game (QF74), he went pure RNG. You could argue he'd probably override RNG in this case and I think that's semi-reasonable given his QF74 kill choices (Experience, Mark, TJ, and Gaea (who was pressuring him and loud and in control.) So fine. Gaea is italicised for similar reasons - I think it's possible fae could've made such a kill, but it's rough to make the call on a docmate, and Gaea in particular would've been aware that Teldris was new, given the back-and-forth with Mark.

Jo can be italicised as well - I think he's old school enough to care about it, but I wouldn't bet the farm on this.

Hopper and Storm I italicise because I think it's psychologically unusual for a newer and less experienced player to go for a low info kill of their own choice: it takes a degree of discipline and self-confidence that I think a player has to work up to, rather than immediately have, if that makes any sense. I resist italicising BridgeBoi because I kind of think BridgeBoi might be holding back a little and able to make that kind of kill. On face value, probably not a BB kill either though. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it either. (My farm matters to me!) 

Full set: <Wiz, Storm, Aet, Ash, Steel, Kas, TUF, Hopper, Drake, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo>

Abridged set: <Aet, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK>

Not as narrow as I'd like.

[Terrisman]

I’m looking at this game from a different angle. TUF is liking getting eliminated today. There seems to be almost a consensus on that. He hasn’t really offered up much of a defense to even try to convince everyone not to pick him. 
Assuming he is BA, we have to look at the potential wins for the BA to understand this.
Option 1 is to outnumber the village. If they’re down 2 members, while the village is only down one, it’s unlikely that they will be attempting to try to outnumber us. This was never the easiest path to victory and if they had been trying for this, I just don’t see TUF going down so easily. (Not to mention that he is an experienced player so the whole slip of voting for Kas seems weird in the first place.)

Option 2 is to get a sitter in as Amyrlin. This can only happen with sitters. In order to accomplish this goal they would have had to win the sitter nominations. If TUF is BA it makes sense how he became Sitter because that Ajah was always going to have a BA sitter regardless of whether it was him or Polly. Even if TwinStorm is village, whoever she voted for would have won. So we need to take a second look at all the sitters. That is me (Terrisman), A Jo in the Bush, Sart,  Steel, BridgeBoi. Most of us seem not have actively pursued the nomination. I think only Jo said he did. The easiest way for the BA to accomplish this goal would be if they had 1 or multiple trusted sitters who could then get voted in. Jo seems to be pretty much regard as village. He’s also actively pursuing the Amyrlin seat. I think we all need to take a second look at Jo.

Option 3, depose a village sitter. This method would require pushing for us to elect someone and then casting doubt on that person once they’ve been elected. Again this requires us to elect one of the sitters. This would likely require either a push from 2 different BA members, one who pushes for an election and one who pushes for deposition. This option could be accomplished most easily if the sitters were all village. 
 

If TUF is BA, which option of these gets the most traction? Either of the last two I would say. We can be sure that if any sitters were BA they would have voted for both Polly and TUF. It’s unnecessary for them to defend or associate with other BA members because the goal is to not have anything to do with them. I don’t think that Steel being the flip vote on Polly (or me voting for her early) proves anything at all. 
Even if none of the sitters are BA, or aren’t going for the Amyrlin, by getting someone in, they further their opportunity of the third option, deposition. We start to trust certain players for voting for the known BA members. They then have more influence. 
i just don’t think that a reasonable push for the Amyrlin seat right now makes sense. 

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

This is also such a weird response. Wiz because it's too early to lock on anyone. TUF is notoriously a threat killer, minus the odd Winzik QF. I don't know he'd go for Teldris of all people.

12 hours ago, The Unknown Flame said:

I'm not locked on him, I just want to hear what he has to say and I'll keep my vote on him until he replies. I am open to changing, I just want to make sure he doesn't disappear.

[|TJ| he/him]

13 hours ago, Terrisman said:

TUF

Oh, and please do not edit a previous red vote to green vote like this, thanks! Make a separate post for retractions or mark it as an edit. If you have made your retraction in your newer post, you do not need to go back to your old posts and change them to green. 

[Kasimir he/him]

30 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

I'm not locked on him, I just want to hear what he has to say and I'll keep my vote on him until he replies. I am open to changing, I just want to make sure he doesn't disappear.

I'm saying it's too early for me to lock on anyone. I'm voting you because TUF's kill meta is well-known and he's a threat/noise killer: your posts are uncharacteristically restrained, and you feel particularly reserved/careful with your thread posts. This feels like a TUF push that doesn't make sense because Teldris is not a noise or threat kill simpliciter, and I say this despite also thinking TUF sus.

Edited to add:

Homie, imma need you to also consider a world where TUF is Village. I think he's more likely Evil at the moment, but we also kind of need to do proper dilligence because the most sloppy thing for the Village to do is to go 'yeah Evil' and not consider what we'd say about worlds where the flip is actually V.

Edited to add 2:

The above edit was meant to be a @Terrisman response.

Edited to add 3:

I recognise this is the only way tired!Kas brain can word this and my words are not great but generally I've played with V!Wiz being:

Spoiler

This energy isn't coming through in Wiz's current posts or pushes from D1 to here, and I am now reconsidering if I've actually overcredited Wiz for underreacting to Polly. The TUF kill meta thing is just so wrong I'm wondering if it's a fabrication and my brain is going back to TWTBAW circles.

Edited March 25, 2025 by Kasimir

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm saying it's too early for me to lock on anyone. I'm voting you because TUF's kill meta is well-known and he's a threat/noise killer: your posts are uncharacteristically restrained, and you feel particularly reserved/careful with your thread posts. This feels like a TUF push that doesn't make sense because Teldris is not a noise or threat kill simpliciter, and I say this despite also thinking TUF sus.

Edited to add:

Homie, imma need you to also consider a world where TUF is Village. I think he's more likely Evil at the moment, but we also kind of need to do proper dilligence because the most sloppy thing for the Village to do is to go 'yeah Evil' and not consider what we'd say about worlds where the flip is actually V.

Edited to add 2:

The above edit was meant to be a @Terrisman response.

Fair that makes sense, and I honestly didn't know his kill meta as well as I thought I did. And I do agree with you about having proper diligence, and it does kill the momentum and the thread as everyone just waits until the person everyone agrees is evil is dead. 

[Terrisman]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm saying it's too early for me to lock on anyone. I'm voting you because TUF's kill meta is well-known and he's a threat/noise killer: your posts are uncharacteristically restrained, and you feel particularly reserved/careful with your thread posts. This feels like a TUF push that doesn't make sense because Teldris is not a noise or threat kill simpliciter, and I say this despite also thinking TUF sus.

Edited to add:

Homie, imma need you to also consider a world where TUF is Village. I think he's more likely Evil at the moment, but we also kind of need to do proper dilligence because the most sloppy thing for the Village to do is to go 'yeah Evil' and not consider what we'd say about worlds where the flip is actually V.

Edited to add 2:

The above edit was meant to be a @Terrisman response.

Yeah I’m aware. Right now, it looks like TUF will get killed today. My point was that even if he turns out to be an elim, what is the endgame? I don’t believe he was just really sloppy. So I’m trying to think a step ahead.

[|TJ| he/him]

Gaea had to leave the game, unfortunately. Please welcome @Illwei into the game!

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add 3:

I recognise this is the only way tired!Kas brain can word this and my words are not great but generally I've played with V!Wiz being:

  Reveal hidden contents

This energy isn't coming through in Wiz's current posts or pushes from D1 to here, and I am now reconsidering if I've actually overcredited Wiz for underreacting to Polly. The TUF kill meta thing is just so wrong I'm wondering if it's a fabrication and my brain is going back to TWTBAW circles.

That is very true  

I did learn from that forest of hell game and try to tone it down more  

[Terrisman]

24 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Gaea had to leave the game, unfortunately. Please welcome @Illwei into the game!

Welcome @Illwei!!

2 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Oh, and please do not edit a previous red vote to green vote like this, thanks! Make a separate post for retractions or mark it as an edit. If you have made your retraction in your newer post, you do not need to go back to your old posts and change them to green. 

Sorry I thought I saw other people doing that so I thought I was supposed to

[|TJ| he/him]

1 minute ago, Terrisman said:

Sorry I thought I saw other people doing that so I thought I was supposed to

No worries! Not a big deal, as I take the most recent red vote anyways but when people backread they might get confused if they think you were retracting your vote when you were actually voting. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Day One: [RAW]

Spoiler

Quote

Experience (1): Sart
Drake (1): Jo

Ngl kind of sus of this opening vote. E!Sart really likes to Contribution Crusade. Jo votes for Drake pretty soon after.

Storm keeps mentioning a V!lean of BridgeBoi. Can you spell out a bit more why you V!read him, i.e. what factors make you think so? I know you know him well, but if you can pick out what sticks out to you and says V!BB, that'd help everyone.

Polly credits Mark with the Ajah pair-claiming thing. Makes me wonder if they share a doc, given Polly's attention to Mark over Ash.

Hopper predicting an Amrylin push. Want to know if this influences Hopper's read of D1 events.

Quote

Experience (1): Sart
Drake (1): Jo
Steel (1): Kas

I wisely roll in and vote...Steel, which does nothing. Wonderful.

I like this post from Joe. Kind of good/honest vibes though I always get scammed by post energy so I really need to develop more skills.

I switched to a welcome vote to Aet, which means I actually end up voting alongside Sart. Whoops. Two-vote train go!

Quote

Aeternum (2): Sart, Kas
Drake (1): Jo

Mark says this. I want to know if you still believe this, and how you would make sense of D1 in this light.

On 3/23/2025 at 6:38 AM, Mark IV said:

Compare that to a non-sitter elim under fire and we're more likely to see elims overplay their hands to save teammates under threat. 

Note that as Jo points out, the votes remain in this state 24 hours into the Day, i.e. at Rollovet. This suggests very low thread tempo and probably no real threat to an Elim, i.e. thread complacency.

Gaea votes Drake to make a tie because we have another tie demon in this Tower apparently  Notably, fae isn't voting faer suspicions.

Quote

Aeternum (2): Sart, Kas
Drake (2): Jo, Gaea

Like me, Hopper attempts to vote Sart. ( @ThatOneWorldhopper - Why Sart btw?)

Quote

Aeternum (2): Sart, Kas
Drake (2): Jo, Gaea
Sart (1): Hopper

Sart then shifts to Gaea because he dislikes that Gaea isn't voting faer suspicions (fair), and...well, ngl I like it because E!Sart tends to be pretty static with his votes. Then again, it's also a natural place to shift so...yeaaahhhh. Dunno where I stand.

Quote

Aeternum (1): Kas
Drake (2): Jo, Gaea
Sart (1): Hopper
Gaea (1): Sart
Steel (1): Storm

Gaea immediately responds to Sart - seems pretty defensive/sensitive to being called out.

Storm also joins the Sitter votes by voting Steel. RIP. ( @TwinStorm - Can you say more about what felt off to you about Steel?)

Both Storm and Hopper unvote around the same time as they realise they've voted Sitters. Hopper shifts to Terris, who, RIP, is...also a Sitter lol. Meanwhile, Wiz votes me.

Quote

Aeternum (1): Kas
Drake (2): Jo, Gaea
Gaea (1): Sart
Terris (1): Hopper
Kas (1): Wiz

Gaea shifts off Drake to Mark. Look at this beautiful vote dispersion! Aet adds to this by voting Storm.

Quote

Aet (1): Kas
Drake (1): Jo
Gaea (1): Sart
Terris (1): Hopper
Kas (1): Wiz
Mark (1): Gaea
Storm (1): Aet

One train takes the lead for once: Storm votes me.

Quote

Aet (1): Kas
Drake (1): Jo
Gaea (1): Sart
Terris (1): Hopper
Kas (2): Wiz, Storm
Mark (1): Gaea
Storm (1): Aet

A minute later, unclear if Terris saw the votestate or not, Terris votes for Gaea. A two-way tie results. @Terrisman, can you also please spell out what about Gaea was skeeving you out?

Quote

Aet (1): Kas
Drake (1): Jo
Gaea (2): Sart, Terris
Terris (1): Hopper
Kas (2): Wiz, Storm
Mark (1): Gaea
Storm (1): Aet

At pretty much the same time (so it clearly isn't really a reaction to Terris), BridgeBoi votes for me. @BridgeBoi, you stated you were underconfident so you joined a train thinking since everyone thought I was Evil, it was probably a good bet. Your post came one minute after Storm's - what about Wiz's or Storm's posts convinced you they were probably right about me? These were the two people voting me when you joined.

Quote

Aet (1): Kas
Drake (1): Jo
Gaea (2): Sart, Terris
Terris (1): Hopper
Kas (3): Wiz, Storm, BridgeBoi
Mark (1): Gaea
Storm (1): Aet

Teldris votes STINK. Based vote.

Quote

Aet (1): Kas
Drake (1): Jo
Gaea (2): Sart, Terris
Terris (1): Hopper
Kas (3): Wiz, Storm, BridgeBoi
Mark (1): Gaea
Storm (1): Aet
STINK (1): Teldris

I like Gaea's response to Aet here btw. It feels fairly sincere to me and is consistent with Gaea's view on me - Village points.

Anyone capable of parsing this post from Polly? I'm not really great at trying to figure where Polly might be hiding her teammates in her reads. I know she's got me as an E, and I know Teldris flipped V, but...yeah. Her Wiz read is two reads combined and IDK what to make of it:

On 3/23/2025 at 10:56 AM, KelsierApologist said:

The Wandering Wizard - Evelyn Rosemary

Null read right now. He’s just having fun in the thread. V-read, because I love Princess Bride references.

Polly turns the vote on me into a runaway 4-vote train.

Quote

Aet (1): Kas
Drake (1): Jo
Gaea (2): Sart, Terris
Terris (1): Hopper
Kas (4): Wiz, Storm, BridgeBoi, Polly
Mark (1): Gaea
Storm (1): Aet
STINK (1): Teldris

Wiz claims the vote was a test, and unvotes me and switches to Polly. @The Wandering Wizard, are you able to say anything about why Polly of everyone who joined you on that train?

Quote

Aet (1): Kas
Drake (1): Jo
Gaea (2): Sart, Terris
Terris (1): Hopper
Kas (3): Storm, BridgeBoi, Polly
Mark (1): Gaea
Storm (1): Aet
STINK (1): Teldris
Polly (1): Wiz

Jo also votes Polly for brigading (bandwagoning?) and seems to have been ninjaed by Wiz in the process. Jo and Wiz likely not E/E together I think.

Quote

Aet (1): Kas
Gaea (2): Sart, Terris
Terris (1): Hopper
Kas (3): Storm, BridgeBoi, Polly
Mark (1): Gaea
Storm (1): Aet
STINK (1): Teldris
Polly (2): Wiz, Jo

Ash votes Drake here. Side-train vote.

Quote

Aet (1): Kas
Gaea (2): Sart, Terris
Kas (3): Storm, BridgeBoi, Polly
Mark (1): Gaea
Storm (1): Aet
STINK (1): Teldris
Polly (2): Wiz, Jo
Drake (1): Ash
Ash (1): Hopper

Hopper swaps to Ash for...voting for people with one vote? @ThatOneWorldhopper - Hopper, is it possible to ask if you can explain your thoughts here a bit?

On 3/23/2025 at 11:56 AM, KelsierApologist said:

No, I was surprised when he had similar ideas to me lol

I feel like this response from Polly suggests (duh) that there's at most one more Elim in Brown Ajah. Otherwise, nothing stops Polly from taking the out that Aet offers here.

Anyway, Polly unvotes me here.

Quote

Aet (1): Kas
Gaea (2): Sart, Terris
Kas (2): Storm, BridgeBoi
Mark (1): Gaea
Storm (1): Aet
STINK (1): Teldris
Polly (2): Wiz, Jo
Drake (1): Ash
Ash (1): Hopper

On 3/23/2025 at 12:08 PM, TwinStorm said:

no, I get that, but I'd prefer to have one person I trust than just no one, I'll trust you, even if its not mutual

I feel like new Elims probably don't figure they'll distance this way lol. Mutual distrust tends to be a more immediately thinkable paradigm than one-sided trust, especially with Storm already coming under fire - doubling down here just brings E!Polly down with him, or worse, brings him down with E!Polly.

Jo moves off Polly to Drake. I would like to keep smoking my V!Jo hopium but I gotta be real with ya, bestie, that move does not spark joy. Essentially, Jo removes Polly from the line of fire and brings into contention a guy whom I think is probably Village here.

Quote

Aet (1): Kas
Gaea (2): Sart, Terris
Kas (2): Storm, BridgeBoi
Mark (1): Gaea
Storm (1): Aet
STINK (1): Teldris
Polly (1): Wiz
Drake (2): Ash, Jo
Ash (1): Hopper

Terris doesn't like Polly's unvoting me after being called out for bandwagoning and votes Polly. Polly is brought back into the three-way. From we are so joever, we are now so back!

Quote

Aet (1): Kas
Gaea (1): Sart
Kas (2): Storm, BridgeBoi
Mark (1): Gaea
Storm (1): Aet
STINK (1): Teldris
Polly (2): Wiz, Terris
Drake (2): Ash, Jo
Ash (1): Hopper

I do still feel ? about Terris's post though because I'm wondering if Terris TMIed me a little there:

On 3/23/2025 at 1:02 PM, Terrisman said:

This to me also seems like an overreaction to bring the heat onto Kas

 

Anyway I voted Gaea because I felt a tie was more productive and I wanted to get a better read on Gaea and figured I'd be able to tell from the reactions. That's about it. I made a four-way tie. I am awesome  

Quote

Gaea (2): Sart, Kas
Kas (2): Storm, BridgeBoi
Mark (1): Gaea
Storm (1): Aet
STINK (1): Teldris
Polly (2): Wiz, Terris
Drake (2): Ash, Jo
Ash (1): Hopper

Steel votes Drake to break the tie. Boooooooo  Theoretically, can go either way. I think Drake was objectively the softest target here, and it does protect Polly.

Quote

Gaea (2): Sart, Kas
Kas (2): Storm, BridgeBoi
Mark (1): Gaea
Storm (1): Aet
STINK (1): Teldris
Polly (2): Wiz, Terris
Drake (3): Ash, Jo, Steel
Ash (1): Hopper

Gaea breaks in the opposite direction, onto Polly. Creating a tie again lol.

Quote

Gaea (2): Sart, Kas
Kas (2): Storm, BridgeBoi
Storm (1): Aet
STINK (1): Teldris
Polly (3): Wiz, Terris, Gaea
Drake (3): Ash, Jo, Steel
Ash (1): Hopper

I kind of feel like this maybe points to a V!Drake, V!Gaea world? I feel like if they really wanted to save Polly here, I'm a viable CW, as is Gaea or Drake. 

Mark votes Storm, which brings yet another train into the five-way. To be fair, it's a Polly/Drake tie, but Storm means that the me-Gaea-Storm trains are one vote away from joining the tie. @Mark IV, could you spell out your thoughts on Storm, please?

Quote

Gaea (2): Sart, Kas
Kas (3): Storm, BridgeBoi, TUF
Storm (2): Aet, Mark
STINK (1): Teldris
Polly (3): Wiz, Terris, Gaea
Drake (3): Ash, Jo, Steel
Ash (1): Hopper
Terris (1): STINK

Terris votes STINK and TUF makes The Post which pushes me back into the three-way. In an E!Drake world, this...is arguably a ? move, or the best of a bad lot I suppose. In a V!Drake world, it's probably vote dilution, which is acceptable for a player as open to risk as TUF. It nrings another train into contention so Polly isn't as doomed to die.

@STINK - Any reason you call TUF out here but don't vote him?

Jo signals willingness to shift from Drake to Polly to save me, but Steel gets there first.

Quote

Gaea (2): Sart, Kas
Kas (3): Storm, BridgeBoi, TUF
Storm (2): Aet, Mark
STINK (1): Teldris
Polly (4): Wiz, Terris, Gaea, Steel
Drake (2): Ash, Jo
Ash (1): Hopper
Terris (1): STINK

Ash then also votes on Polly to save me. @Ashbringer Why Polly for you btw?

Quote

Gaea (2): Sart, Kas
Kas (3): Storm, BridgeBoi, TUF
Storm (2): Aet, Mark
STINK (1): Teldris
Polly (5): Wiz, Terris, Gaea, Steel, Ash
Drake (1): Jo
Ash (1): Hopper
Terris (1): STINK

...My head hurts too much to work out if I think Polly was bussed. I do note that Polly didn't vote in self-pres; neither did I. (Honestly I just low key forgot.) I'm going to stop here and get sleep.

tldr; 

- If you got pinged, just ctrl+f for your name as I had questions for you while re-reading and redoing the votes
- Just off the votes, Wiz, Terris and Gaea look ok here, slight asterisk for Terris because of the issues with Sitter bussing
- Steel and Ash look...I'm not as sure given the train volumes, but I do have a light positive read of Ash from our doc.
- TUF unfortunately or otherwise makes what looks like a saving vote onto me for Polly. Not very great, broski.
- Jo expanding the trains to Drake doesn't look great, unfortunately, as he removes his vote from Polly, which technically saves her. While he later mentions he would vote Polly to save me, he also kind of doesn't do it/gets beaten to it by Steel.
-Sart's parking here...it's normal for Sart but I still dislike his vote, and am not really feeling V!Sart on the re-read. 
-Mark going onto Storm looks like attempted vote dilution.

Edited to add:

This is about as much effort as I want to put in tonight. I'm going to bed  

Edited March 25, 2025 by Kasimir

[Aeternum]

Would like actual pressure on STINK.

Hi Illwei 

Spoiler

The Wandering Wizard
TwinStorm
Ashbringer
Steeldancer
Kasimir
The Unknown Flame
ThatOneWorldhopper
DrakeMarshall
Mark IV
BridgeBoi
Terrisman
Sart
STINK
Illwei
A Jo in the Bush

Edited March 25, 2025 by Aeternum
fixed space

[Terrisman]

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

A minute later, unclear if Terris saw the votestate or not, Terris votes for Gaea. A two-way tie results. @Terrisman, can you also please spell out what about Gaea was skeeving you out?

I don't know. I wasn't on all day and on a quick two time read through of the thread, I got e! vibes. After I read through it again slowly, I realized I had no reason so I switched.

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Terris votes STINK and TUF makes The Post which pushes me back into the three-way. In an E!Drake world, this...is arguably a ? move, or the best of a bad lot I suppose. In a V!Drake world, it's probably vote dilution, which is acceptable for a player as open to risk as TUF. It nrings another train into contention so Polly isn't as doomed to die

This dint happen. I never voted for STINK.

 

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

- Just off the votes, Wiz, Terris and Gaea look ok here, slight asterisk for Terris because of the issues with Sitter bussing

I'm good with that. Keep your eyes on all of us. Don't trust anything because that's our biggest jeopardy. I'm worried about Jo and Steel. v! lean on Sart and Null on BridgeBoi. Jo and Steel feel like they've been actively courting village vibes. Don't mind the ? on me.

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

This dint happen. I never voted for STINK.

Yeah sorry, I meant Teldris, was too tired but the vote is logged correctly as being Teldris.

Not really super comfortable with Sart atm and feel people are overcrediting him for the Amyrlin suggestion but it's well within Sart's abilities to simply choose to play this as a conventional game - as you all point out, it's not like the Amyrlin is really jacked anyway.

Not super challenging everyone, but more needing to log my thoughts on Sart somewhere.

[Ashbringer he/him]

12 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

He was also IN MY AJAH. 

...

Edit: note that I also mentioned IRL stuff which he didn't mention in thread, I think. He was on a vacation and was planning on being more active when he got back. So, I feel a mild amount of anger is justified. 
Also, I'm always over the top. Please, please stop thinking its alignment indicative. It's not, its just me being me. I would think if you'd played with me before you'd know this... 

Ah. That makes sense, then. I tend to be... somewhat oblivious to hintings, so I think I clocked "Steel has outside reason for being upset at this NK" but not what the reason was.

I think I do trust Steel, for the most part, between this and D1.

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I think this is why when Ash does NKA, Ash looks directly for who would call that killshot rather than who could be on a team with that person, and that's a really important distinction because being excluded from calling that kill doesn't mean you're Village.

^ Very much so this. It's also why I will often doubt my own NKAs, because sometimes my brain decides "new players won't choose a kill" when sometimes they just very much will. Tried not to do that this time, but yeah I'm not good at detecting an entire Elim team unless they all are in agreement on who to NK, which they're usually not (especially for low-info kills and especially especially new player ones).

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Abridged set: <Aet, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK>

Not as narrow as I'd like.

Interestingly close compared to mine: TwinStorm, Aeternum, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terrisman, Sart, Jo

And yes, it never really gets as narrow as I'd like either  

3 hours ago, Terrisman said:

Yeah I’m aware. Right now, it looks like TUF will get killed today. My point was that even if he turns out to be an elim, what is the endgame? I don’t believe he was just really sloppy. So I’m trying to think a step ahead.

Well, there's also the old phrase "don't count your Elims until they've hatched". I for one don't trust TUF, but I'm inclined to look for a different execution for a few reasons - IMO this kill doesn't fit him (too much), losing a few days of discussion even if we think we've found an Elim tends to hurt more than help, and also running the Village over with a PoE Bandwagon is... something that's been done multiple times (and by me multiple times) but tends to stifle discussion even more.

59 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Ash then also votes on Polly to save me. @Ashbringer Why Polly for you btw?

Honestly - mostly for that reason, to save you. I'd have preferred to go on Gaea over Polly if the vote counts were equal, because I still wanted some answer for the earlier Drake weirdness, but the push on you felt wrong and Polly was a big catalyst in that.

Does D1ing Kas / the most active player ever feel right, I'm not sure.

[Illwei]

Hi Guys!!! Been over a year since I last played a game here so woo

I read over the game at like 5am before sleeping so I had thoughts but I forgot what most of them were. Besides a negative read on the Gaea slot which I suppose helps me here but it sure doesn't feel like it :P.

one thing is @BridgeBoi Don't apologize for voting wrong. Like yes, Kas is a Villager, but voting villagers isn't something you need to apologize for. It's going to happen to everyone at some point, and it's not something you should be ashamed or scared of. 

but also BridgeBoi

I'd appreciate a summary of why TUN is a consensus Elim at this point, and some other questions but I'll ask those after I come back after reading through TUN things.

I'd also like to know people's opinions on TwinStorm, as I felt that their interactions with KA were at best, really bad.

I feel a little better about Steel after noting that he did make a comment about trusting Tesan. 
I do want to mention that Steel was the one to abstain in the doc, Not Tesan. Tesan and Gaea voted Gaea and Steel, respectively.

In reference to TUN, I'm wondering if anyone there can say/has said what the vote split was. Along those lines I didn't see anyone with a coherent list of who is in what Ajah, and I can't tell if people claimed. Mostly I wanted to know Tesan's Ajah partners but I have that now so the theory that he was killed because the Elims wanted to control the White Ajah's Power is kinda disproven, especially because it's seemingly....useless? ....and that doesn't seem the most ...useful to the Elims in comparison with something like Red, Which could be used to elect a player earlier to the Ashwaganda seat or so I suppose? Most of the Ajah powers seem mildly useless to me but it could be my vanilla brain talking.

VILLAGE
Kas
Aet
Ash
Terrisman I want to call a villager, and it's for this post.

--

Joe at this point is a light village lean, mostly because I'm a sucker for a good campaign and his N1 campaign was baller.

Steel is someone I'm divided on, since a big part of my suspicion on him was his reaction to Tesan's death. He has had some good content in the doc at points though. Still deciding how I feel about him not voting, but I don't find wanting to be elected as an Elim trait. Mostly I think Elims would be more shy about campaigning in general (regardless of player history/meta)

Mark ends on my negative side, basically because of how minimal his thread impact seems to be comparable to his appeared post contents/size.

--

TwinStorm I talked about already, but they're solidly in my Elim pile for how they interacted with KA and the whole "They told me not to trust them" part, which feels more performative than anything in an attempt to distance. Could they just be an awkward new player? Maybe, I don't know what their history is here.

 

I've rambled a lot so I'm gonna post this and collect more thoughts later.

[Aeternum]

BridgeBoi can't be voted today, unfortunately.

Still have TwinStorm in PoE, but not as locked there as I was before, because some of TwinStorm's n1 posts were better, and I've been considering if TwinStorm is the latest on my list of newbies who I read incorrectly after reading through Kas's thoughts on TwinStorm.

Mark has been mostly uninteresting to me - we're in an Ajah together and I've been fine with what Mark has been saying in our doc so I'm not overly concerned, but not strongly townreading.

[Terrisman]

what is PoE?

[Steeldancer he/him]

Illwei, I explicitly didn't vote because at the time, only Gaea had voted for me based on my hair brained desire to be sitter lol. I didn't really want to put it up to a 50/50 between me and someone who was willing to vote for me, so that's why I didn't do that. Plus you can't vote for yourself, else I'd have done that. Then, Tesan came in while I was at work, which is why you'll note I didn't even realize he had voted, or even said anything about the vote, until a while later lmao. I'm also more than happy to just hold on to the Sitter position for now, unless thread decides to pull a funny and make me Amyrlin just to put poor John through even more stress. (At which point we can put his leaving the game to him absolutely BOOKING it out of the tower. Ngl it would be very fun to write)

Hm. Votes. Also illwei bridgeboi is a sitter so can't be voted. I guess I'll turn to my previous analysis of the Kasimir vote and probably vote someone on there. Hm, bridgeboi can't be voted so that just leaves TUF and Twinstorm. Since TUF just got stilled, I'd like to turn to a new source of information and vote Twinstorm instead. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 minute ago, Terrisman said:

what is PoE?

Process of Elimination. Or as I used it, PoE Bandwagon - just exeing people in a predefined order based on who’s most suspicious without a ton of afterthought. Good for finding pesky last Elims through a lot of dead Villagers, bad for finding deepwolves who got themselves nicely trusted.

My post-D1 PoE probably wants TUF/TwinStorm dead and flipped and then Sart Stilled, but that’s based largely on D1/N1 and you still need to take in new information. Especially on D2 lol.

Which is why I’d like to start looking away from TUF.

[Aeternum]

Feeling slightly concerned about the way people are accepting moving away from TUF in a way that makes me think a lot of people did not have a real reason to be voting or pushing TUF other than "wow consensus". Which is concerning, but I'm not sure how concerning I find it right now.

I support a TUF vote partially for threadstate reasons, and a TwinStorm vote. Will likely vote there later, but I'd still like there to be more pressure on STINK, who has been way too under the radar imo. Would extend this to apply to Drake, but he's just completely not here so not worth pushing rn.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Hmm.

Vote Count, I believe:

• Mark IV (2): Kasimir, Sart
• The Unknown Flame (2): The Wandering Wizard, BridgeBoi
• Aeternum (1): Ashbringer
• TwinStorm (1): Steeldancer
• STINK (1): Aeternum
• ThatOneWorldhopper (1): Terrisman
• Sart (1): TwinStorm

[Illwei]

I assume it's been talked about already but the Azazel Chair- Just making sure we are all on the same page where I don't think we want to elect that/get a maj candidate until absolutely possible. there's a possibility that an Elim might win a 2/2 tie but even then they have to survive a deposition, and in that time we should be able to get all the elims. If we don't then we can depose but if we get someone up earlier and then realize we can't trust them and depose them, and then it turns out they're a villager then that's a loss.

Atm I'm in favor of keeping joe in the running at the very least. Maybe Steel.

@Aeternum Can you talk to me about what you liked about Twinstorm? My problem is I don't want to ignore their interactions with KA which seem pretty bad to me on the "They're a new player" track.

@Ashbringer can you talk about your suspicion of Aet? I'm not familiar with their play here but I feel mildly comfortable calling them a villager here.

It's 20 out today so I'm gonna enjoy the weather and read over drake and TUN later. I saw suspicion on drake but in my initial catch up I didn't see anything from them. Like. I don't remember seeing a post. I know I got Sart and Steel mixed up on first glance as well though so maybe I'm blind.

Also uh

Sart

@Steeldancer is the reason you didn't vote then because you wanted it? Because you didn't trust Gaea who was voting for you?

 

EDIT: Sart

I'm real good at this whole "voting" thing.

 

Edited March 25, 2025 by Illwei

[Aeternum]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

@Aeternum Can you talk to me about what you liked about Twinstorm? My problem is I don't want to ignore their interactions with KA which seem pretty bad to me on the "They're a new player" track.

It's more that TwinStorm's n1 posts were ok enough that I've been considering if I'm wrong, given I have a... not so great record at reading newer players, and it is possible I just dislike the way TwinStorm just makes posts. His n1 posts were not extremely wolfy the way I found a lot of his d1 posts, they were just ok posts.

ftr I agree a lot with your point there - I thought that KelsierApologist had a really theatre-y comment aimed at TwinStorm).

My main points against TwinStorm are wolfy posts d1 imo, and that theatre point. Kas seems to think differently and I am a sheep can see Kas's point of view on TwinStorm.

Also, Sart is also a sitter and can't be voted today