Scadrial vs. Roshar post KoW

[Frustration]

On 12/16/2024 at 4:31 PM, alder24 said:

Oh no, I don't know if I'm ready for this. Without Frustration it's not the same  

Why thank you my dear friend, but I am here now.

 

Well I'll admit I was not expecting Wind and Truth to go the way it did, but alright. Let's take an analysis.

New things in WaT

• Urithiru is all but untouchable with infinite towerlight and such 
• Substantiation: Making Illusions solid, possibly just a Shallan thing, possibly an Honor is dead thing.
• Only Windrunner plate can be easily shared
• Windrunners developed a form of Morse code
• We saw more division and that it can almost instantly burn through Stone
• We Saw Elsegates that are just basically portals
• Focused ones show similar levels of Strength to Duralumin-Pewter, which is crazy
• We see just how superior Singers are to normal humans, feet immune to Caltrops, armor almost plate, heat-resistant, faster stronger etc
• It appears that there might only have been three Thnderclasts, but I will say that the art saying that there are three also gave their names. I could just as easily say: "This is a painting of the three Heralds: Ishar, Nale and Taln," and would be correct in so doing, while also not denying the existence of the other seven Heralds.
• We got confirmation that Windrunner plate can protect while partially unsummoned, for which I feel very vindicated
• Apparently you can just jump-past ideals and go straight for the fifth
• Spren can wear shared plate, use sharblades and Unoathed exist

 

These are all unimaginably devastating points that bring Rosharan military might to unquestionably the most powerful shardworld we have seen. Then Retribution happened, and kicked the chair out from under them.

No stormlight, almost no fabrials, and I think most devastating of all, no Oathgates. Oathgates were the gold star of Rosharan Logistics, with that special forces, including high oathed radiants of all Orders could get to any location on the continent, in Physical or Cognitive in a matter of hours. It used to be that no matter where they struck on Roshar invaders could expect to encounter the advance elements of Rosharan Resistance before the day was out. Not anymore.

 

So, where does this leave us?

Surprisingly this is the first time that an all out war between these two factions becomes possible. I will therefore consider two possibilities:

1. The previous ideas of what an all out war between the two would look like if both sides were bloodlusted(The war will end when one of the parties is dead).

2. What a more realistic conflict between the two would be.

 

In situation 1:

This war gets brutal, FAST. No matter who starts it. Due to the time dilation Scadrial has a far easier time than it would otherwise, able to resupply faster, and reposition as needed. I believe it finally gives Scadrial the ability to mount an offensive, though I don't recommend it.

The Scardian CR is full of mists, that cause an individual to sink if they aren't floating on something invested. That greatly limits their abilities, as metalminds and hemalurgic spikes are tiny and do not easily carry cargo. Of course they could try just making modified scuba gear and walking, but given the perpendicularity is in a mountain I don't think that's a good idea.

Theoretically infrastructure could be created to bridge the gap, and one that fortunately for Scadrial they can spend 10-15 years building in order to ship large groups off world.

Getting on to Roshar proves more difficult however, as the only two ways to cross realms currently available are under pretty tight control.

Elsegates which only Jasnah could create and she doesn't know how just yet, or Retribution's Perpendicularity which is under Singer control, buried under a crap ton of rock, which they can open or close at will, while also being surrounded by the Shattered plains in all directions, which as the Alethi found out are an absolutely brutal place, and one where the Singers would easily defeat any invaders. Especially with the aid of chasmfiends

Roshar invading Scadrial on the other hand could be more interesting. The time dilation does cause problems, but I believe that just like how stormlight used to get heavier the farther away from Roshar you got, that the farther from Roshar you go the less extreme the time dilation would become.

An army moving would of course attract attention, but there is little that Scadrial can do about it until they arrive: see Men of Gold and Red in TLM for an example.

Getting through the Perpendicularity would be difficult, but Skybreakers, Husked ones and some Focused ones the Skybreakers brought could make a beachhead against whatever(if any) defense has been mounted, while the Heavenly ones begin carrying others, or stealing mercantile vessels to cross.

 

From there the first time the army is likely to meet Resistance would be the Seran mountain range. And it is here they will have their biggest fight. The gap is about 25 miles(40 KM) wide, based on the map.

This is the best place, and honestly where Scaridal must hold. Just getting inside the Basin isn't an automatic win, but it does give them a lot of open space, and lets them do a lot of potential damage to the Scadrian economy and infrastructure. And it will be a bloodbath.

Google AI search assistant says that between 3-4 hundred soldiers were needed to defend a mile of WW1 trenches, I cannot verify that, and some of the other websites I visited implied higher numbers, but I think that's a good benchmark. That means Scadrial will need to commit between 7,500 to all 10,000 of its soldiers, just on this one battle. If they do not defend the entire line the Rosharan forces just go around them. It's all or nothing and it's right here.

 

Analysis: Both sides suffer enormous casualties. Focused ones, Magnified ones, and Husked ones hit Scadrian lines like monsters straight out of mythology, two of which have strength making even Koloss look weak by comparison.

Heavy gunfire hits back, heavy fused bodies resisting greatly, but eventually succumbing to gunshots and grenades(conventional, not Malwish).

A couple Thugs, and Iron Ferrings, with obnoxiously large guns, or stationary gun placements serve to stave off the worst of the onslaught, but Husked ones, and Heavenly ones soon make a nightmare even for these. All while conventional Singer Soldiers, Warforms, Direforms, and Stormforms swarm in to aid their leaders. 

I'd say eventually the Scadrian forces break, as they can't commit enough soldiers to one spot to stop the assault, but they deal enough damage that as the others fall back and regroup the Rosharan forces are sufficiently defeated they have to hold the gap while awaiting reinforcements, lest they be cut off behind enemy lines.

A long and brutal war is fought out to a stalemate. The Rosharan forces unable to resupply fast enough to take the basin, with the Scadrian forces unable to push the Rosharan forces off-planet, and it becomes a Scadrian desolation lasting decades before Scadrian technology and military doctrine advanced enough to win decisive victory against the invading army.

Casualties on both sides are staggering, economic progress is slowed, and both nations are left exhausted, their resources spent, and populations desolated.

 

Scenario 2:

 This one is a lot more realistic, but less fun, mostly just masked ones doing a repeat of SoS, much more effective on the Rosharan side as Radiants and Fused are a lot harder for a Kandra to fake, while some heavenly ones with shardblades cut railway lines, burn fields, and generally just make life painful and difficult.

 

Sorry for the Necro, but I desperately wanted this thread.

Edited December 11, 2025 by Frustration
SPAG

[Treamayne]

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Why thank you my dear friend, but I am here now.

Welcome Back. 

 

[Qianweilian He/him]

12 hours ago, Frustration said:

Why thank you my dear friend, but I am here now.

When did you get back?

12 hours ago, Frustration said:

Substantiation: Making Illusions solid, possibly just a Shallan thing, possibly an Honor is dead thing.

I don't actually think this is new. In O, Jasnah wonders if Shallan is using Transformation to give her illusions mass. It might just be a light weaver resonance. (Sorry, can't find the quote rn)

[alder24]

12 hours ago, Frustration said:

Why thank you my dear friend, but I am here now.

Welcome back, it's been a while.

[Frustration]

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

Welcome back, it's been a while.

Two years

2 hours ago, Qianweilian said:

I don't actually think this is new. In O, Jasnah wonders if Shallan is using Transformation to give her illusions mass. It might just be a light weaver resonance. (Sorry, can't find the quote rn)

Yeah but Shallan didn't stab anyone with it, which is kind of the crazy thing. Definitely gives a lightweaver a huge advantage.

Imagine what would happen if you managed to get visual contact with a command post and made an illusion of one of the commanders stabbing another. Even if it didn't kill them it would create lots of internal struggle and distrust.

[Aliroz-The-Confused]

Frustration!  You came back..

*high-fives in years-long hiatuses-from-this-forum*

 

I hope the Scadrians can create a non-opaque version of Ralkalest.  A lens of such stuff might allow one to see through lightweaving's illusions.

Or maybe a tineye's senses could notice flaws in an illusion, that would make things slightly less one-sided (though still incredibly one-sided).

[Frustration]

2 minutes ago, Aliroz-The-Confused said:

Frustration!  You came back..

*high-fives in years-long hiatuses-from-this-forum*

*Returns high-five*

How's may favorite fellow anti-ebook gator doing?

5 minutes ago, Aliroz-The-Confused said:

I hope the Scadrians can create a non-opaque version of Ralkalest.  A lens of such stuff might allow one to see through lightweaving's illusions.

Or maybe a tineye's senses could notice flaws in an illusion, that would make things slightly less one-sided (though still incredibly one-sided).

A non-opaque version of Aluminum, or did you mean something else?

A way to detect Illusions would be good, but it looks like the ghost bloods white-sand is all they have.

[therunner he/him]

On 12/11/2025 at 1:27 AM, Frustration said:

Why thank you my dear friend, but I am here now

Welcome back!

Hope you had enjoyable and interesting last two years
 

Quote

Roshar invading Scadrial on the other hand could be more interesting. The time dilation does cause problems, but I believe that just like how stormlight used to get heavier the farther away from Roshar you got, that the farther from Roshar you go the less extreme the time dilation would become.

I believe this was confirmed in the book.

 

[First of the Tide He/him]

19 minutes ago, therunner said:

I believe this was confirmed in the book

And here!

Spoiler

Questioner

At the end of Wind and Truth, Roshar in the Physical Realm is in a time bubble. Does that then pierce or extend to the Cognitive Realm and the Spiritual Realm? And then will that then, in turn, affect Kaladin and Shallan in their respective journeys?

Brandon Sanderson

It does hit the Cognitive Realm, and not the Spiritual Realm. Spiritual Realm is outside of kind of normal time and space sort of things. Imagine this like being close to a singularity. It’s not a true time bubble, because it doesn’t have a strict border, an edge. It’s gonna fade out, the further you get along (if you were able to do it in space) in space, but in the subastral. The idea is, the further you get, the less time distortion there will be. A big old, essentially a singularity that is just warming time-space around. Not gonna affect the Spiritual Realm. So you should expect that a lot more time will have passed on… well, the Spiritual Realm, weird things could happen. They could come back, and a hundred years has passed. They could come back, and ten minutes has passed. So you’ll have to see what I end up doing with that.

You should expect that Kaladin’s experience and Shallan’s experiences will have diverged in time-wise.

Dragonsteel Nexus 2025 (Dec. 5, 2025)

 

[Frustration]

15 hours ago, First of the Tide said:

And here!

  Reveal hidden contents

Questioner

At the end of Wind and Truth, Roshar in the Physical Realm is in a time bubble. Does that then pierce or extend to the Cognitive Realm and the Spiritual Realm? And then will that then, in turn, affect Kaladin and Shallan in their respective journeys?

Brandon Sanderson

It does hit the Cognitive Realm, and not the Spiritual Realm. Spiritual Realm is outside of kind of normal time and space sort of things. Imagine this like being close to a singularity. It’s not a true time bubble, because it doesn’t have a strict border, an edge. It’s gonna fade out, the further you get along (if you were able to do it in space) in space, but in the subastral. The idea is, the further you get, the less time distortion there will be. A big old, essentially a singularity that is just warming time-space around. Not gonna affect the Spiritual Realm. So you should expect that a lot more time will have passed on… well, the Spiritual Realm, weird things could happen. They could come back, and a hundred years has passed. They could come back, and ten minutes has passed. So you’ll have to see what I end up doing with that.

You should expect that Kaladin’s experience and Shallan’s experiences will have diverged in time-wise.

Dragonsteel Nexus 2025 (Dec. 5, 2025)

 

Ah why thank you, that's perfect actually.

I love the feeling of making a call perfectly like that.

 

So I'd say that takes about half of the time dilation effect on any way effort out, and makes this a much more even fight than it would be otherwise, but I'll stick with my original analysis