Scadrial vs. Roshar post KoW

[Isilel]

On 12/21/2024 at 8:29 AM, therunner said:

Plate will get damaged less than golem, and so will require less Investiture to heal.

So, I am currently re-readin WoK and in chapter 19 in Dalinar's vision the Midnight Essence, something that he can fight with an iron poker, cracks the Plate of a Radiant who has investiture available to him with a claw, and Dalinar thinks that the danger to the Radiants in this instance is real.

I can't help but think that  Radiant plate would do significantly worse against rifle/ machine gun fire or explosives.

 

On 12/21/2024 at 8:29 AM, therunner said:

Also, WW1 artillery does not target moving things easily.

 

Bendalloy allomancy would remove the problem entirely. You can easily predict enemy movement trajectories and work out firing solutions when in the bubble, as well as re-load, then drop it to actually fire. Bye-bye Focused Ones. Though, honestly, AoE Leeching via grenades, then massed gun fire would work as well.

As to the Husked ones, Deep Ones, etc., Seekers should be able to track all of them and shoot them. Possibly dropping Chromium grenades on them first to make it easier. But even if not, the Fused have only so much healing, you don't need to destroy their gemhearts to kill them, as long as you do enough damage.

 

On 12/21/2024 at 8:29 AM, therunner said:

Why keep repeating Lightweaving is silent, and Ghostbloods have to use white sand to detect it, if not because it is silenet generally?

 

Do we have any reason to think that any of them had Bronze Allomancy? I really hoped to see them use some Metal Arts against Shallan and Co., particularly since the former owner of the red Aviar had been clearly spiked and had his metalminds stolen, but nada. Maybe, an argument could be made for them using some emotional Allomancy, or Iyatil being able to speed up in minor ways (thought it could have also been skill), but there was nothing concrete. Nobody felt the approach of the Windrunners (whose surge-binding is "loud") either until they ran into them.

 

On 12/21/2024 at 8:29 AM, therunner said:

Aluminum bullets are not the end-all of Invested warfare, Wayne is not suddenly completly useless because there are aluminum bullets.

 

It has been specifically mentioned that aluminium bullets would have been dangerous to Wayne, because they would have prevented him from healing around themselves and his body from expelling them.. He was never hit by one, due to the protagonist plot armor.

The Fused didn't use aluminum spearpoints and arrowheads for the simple reason that it is too soft and they don't have enough metallurgy knowledge and technology to create alloys that would be somewhat harder, but retain it's anti-investiture properties.

 

On 12/21/2024 at 8:29 AM, therunner said:

I.e. Warform likely requires relatively thin plane to render them virtually bulletproof against machine guns (for some time at least), and Direforms are likely impervious.

 

So, according to this argument plate armor would have been useful during WW1? This doesn't sound right. Also, they'd still suffer force transference from the impacts and get hurt, even if this had been the case. Roshar also doesn't have the quality of steel comparable to that available to the Western World during WW1.

 

On 12/21/2024 at 8:29 AM, therunner said:

In Allomancy, only few are against directly usefull in combat, Coinshots, Lurchers, Thugs, Leechers, Sliders.

 

Seekers would be very useful for detecting and shooting Fused, particularly the Husked Ones and Deep Ones. Allomantic grenades make a few more Allomantic powers very useful - Aluminum, Cadmium, Duralumin. They would also allow to stretch the use of certain powers far beyond the number of available Mistings, who wouldn't even need to be in battle, just charge for the use of regular soldiers. There are also synergies.

 

On 12/21/2024 at 8:29 AM, therunner said:

Thugs are comparable to Regals, so no reason for Fused to care.

 

We have seen Fused being killed by wholly unpowered people, Thugs would be more dangerous than those. I suspect that Leeching could affect some of the Regals, like stormforms. IIRC, Regals in OB/RoW did get a small amount of voidlight for personal use.

I am not really sure why you compare Fused draining Radiants of stormlight with their spears - which works like transferring investiture between gems, a somewhat protracted process, with Leeching, which, if not completely instantaneous, is very swift.

Granted, for the most part we saw it from Nikki Savage's broadsheet stories, which are usually exaggerated, but the whole incident with her Leeching Nazh's shadegun sounds compatible with what we know of his background.

Finally, there is the elephant in the room - 30% higher gravity on Scadrial and lack of plentiful ambient investiture to suppress infectious diseases. Which should significantly weaken any Rosharan invasion.

Also, the Ghostbloods should be able to provide timely warning, and maybe some off-world military experts, so that even without the time dilation there should be enough time to train an army. There is no reason to think that Dai-Gonarthis can transport people between star systems, so Rosharans would have to march through Shadesmar, which, according to Hoid in WaT, should take months. The same should probably be the case for the Fused souls every time when they get killed.

 

Edited December 22, 2024 by Isilel

[alder24]

@therunner I will be honest with you, I don’t particularly enjoy the way we nitpick over every single minor detail we say (though I’m very guilty of continuing this and I can’t stop doing this), simply because it takes way too much time to go through every point of yours, time I don’t currently have. It’s still fun, just way too tiresome and time consuming to do this every day. Today, I’ll respond in a different way, a larger analysis of my position. I may or may not go back and respond to your points like we did previously, we shall see.

I’ll start by restating who I think would win in what situation. For a non-united scenario, I believe neither Roshar nor Scadrial can successfully invade and conquer each other for many reasons I’ll get to later. If we consider united planets, Scadrial will also be unable to win on the offensive, however I think united Roshar might have just enough of an edge over Scadrial to win the war. In bath cases, the war would be a bloody massacre for both sides and it would be a very costly victory. 

Now, you’re eager to rightfully remind us that Scadrial has no means of getting to Roshar because they don’t have any infrastructure in CR, nor do the Basin own Harmony’s perpendicularity. This is of course a valid point, it’s also partially the reason why I believe Scadrian can’t win on Roshar, but you forget that Roshar is in an equally bad position, maybe even worse. Roshar has literally no means of getting to Shadesmar as of the end of WaT. Cultivation’s perpendicularity is gone and Oathgates stopped working and won’t reactivate ever again. We know this because they said with no Honor and no Stormlight, their era is over and because in Renarin’s vision of Urithiru, they’ve converted the Oathgate platforms into farms; despite having the Towerlight, Oathgates remain closed. Moreover, the Well of Control is currently empty, it can’t function as a perpendicularity for the nearest future and will need some time to refill - weeks, months, maybe even years. Rosharans can’t leave their world for now, just as Scadrians can’t.

You might say that Rosharans have Dai-Gonarthis, who can open Oathgates anywhere she wants. Except she can’t. She needs massive concentrations of investiture on both sides of her Oathgate to make them - perpendicularities. Currently there is no active perpendicularity on Roshar and Harmony’s perpendicularity is in some unknown location, probably within Malwish territory. To make things even more problematic, she would probably need a ton of investiture to open a gate over such a massive distance (if that’s even possible for her at all). If that’s not enough, Retribution’s perpendicularity and the entire Shattered Plains are under Listeners control, so in the case of non-united planets, Retribution can’t even use his own Shardpool to move his troops or to create Elsegates with Dai-Gonarthis because she can’t get close enough to the Shardpool. Plus, there is also a price to be paid for using this Unamde - I think it was mentioned that she wants to destroy Roshar - whatever it means, this is such a cost that not even Rayse was employing her lightly. An Oathgate created on Scadrial will appear half a continent away from the Basin, next to Harmony’s perpendicularity, on land controlled by Malwish (which had to be dealt with either with diplomacy or with force), giving the Northerners plenty of time to prepare defences along the way. 

To summarize my first point, Rosharans have to wait for Retribution’s perpendicularity to get refilled before they could launch an invasion of Scadrial, which will take an unknown amount of time to begin with. Rosharans are incapable of invading another planet, just like Scadrians are - a fact that even Taravangian was aware of. He knew he wasn’t ready for his intergalactic war Dalinar threw him into. 

My next point is time dilation. You keep dismissing it, while this alone single-handedly wins the war for Scadrial. Because of time dilation, Rosharans are incapable of reliably supplying and reinforcing their troops fighting on Scadrial. Spending weeks on Roshar to prepare supplies for Scadrial would mean that months or years would have passed in the meantime on Scadrial. Months or years for their troops with no food, no equipment, no fresh men, no reborn Fused and most importantly, no Warlight. Time dilation prevents Roshar from using Singer’s faster maturing and their larger population; larger army means more resources needed, means larger supply trains, means more time is needed to prepare them, means additional months on Scadial which troops have to spend with limited resources. And I’m not even exaggerating with years here - it took months for Shallan to travel to Cultivation’s perpendicularity, which was several years outside of Roshar. A few minutes she spent talking to Kelsier were hours on Scadrial. It’s impossible for Rosharans to fight in such conditions.

All those useful and fancy tricks Fused can do to harass Scadrian positions require Warlight. The only way for them to get Warlight right now is to pray to Odium once a day to get it - on Roshar, in the Everstorm. They need to carry those gems filled with Warlight to Scadrial from Roshar - a trip that will take weeks, months or even years for troops on Scadrial. If that wasn’t bad enough, Rosharans have basically no perfect gemstones to use to transport their light over such a long time - they would simply lose all their light before arriving at Scadrial. Spren have them, Honorspren have a whole storage of them in the Lasting Integrity, but for a non-united scenario those aren’t available. For the united one they are, which is one of the reasons why I believe they would win. Non-united Roshar would have only a limited amount of perfect gemstones, which would mean that Fused, Regals and Skybreakers on Scadrial would have to ration their very limited amount of investiture very, very carefully. If Sigzil and his Radiants run out of light after a few days of fighting, Fused would have to go weeks without any light - thus with no Surges. Healing would be a privilege as it wastes their already rare resources. They would avoid getting into situations where they would get shot. Lashing rocks is out of question because it requires a lot of light. They can maybe do it once or twice after getting resupply, but that’s it for months of battle. 

Rosharans can use Soulcasting to create food and resources for equipment, but that again requires Warlight and more gemstones. We don’t even know if Soulcasting fabrials still work, as the Oathgates don’t work - it’s possible that without Honor and his Oaths, all manifested fabrials might have ceased functioning. Assuming they didn’t, most Soulcasters are in Urithiru’s hands. We don’t know how Fused Soulcasting works compared to that of Radiants, there would be some differences and limitations, as with every Surge. They can Soulcast swords into smoke, possibly create stone as this type of Fused is considered to be great builders, but food is unknown - maybe but we’ve never seen them doing this. They still need Warlight and gemstones for that, which is a rare resource on Scadrial - too rare to rely on Soulcasting for supplying their massive army with everything. Alethi army on the Shattered Plains was already unsustainable without massive gemhearts gather from Chasmfiend runs - there are no Greathshells on Scadrial. All those hundreds of thousands experienced soldiers you throw around in previous posts would simply starve on Scadrial as they cannot be supplied because of time dilation. 

Time dilation screws Rosharans in this war and it alone is a reason for why Scadrial would win on defence. Scadrial on offence would also have a massive advantage due to time dilation. Scadrial can spend weeks preparing their huge supply caravan for it to arrive daily on Roshar. They would have lots of time to prepare technology and new strategies to deal with invested troops on Roshar. However Roshar would have all Warlight they need and even with time dilation aiding Scadrial on offence, having basically unlimited investiture, combined with the massive size of territory controlled by Retribution, would be enough for Rosharans to win on defence. You simply cannot ignore time dilation in this topic as this is the single, most important change that happened in WaT which matters for our discussion. 

Thirdly, Ghostbloods. They had an extensive network on Roshar, contacts with Fused, access to anti-investiture and even to a Herald and an Unmade - they are a treasure trove of precious knowledge about Roshar. A trove that would be wide open at the dawn on Rosharan invasion. The core purpose of Ghostbloods is to protect Scadrial and they would get involved in the war before it even starts. Felt and Aia and possibly some other agents are still on Roshar, they would be aware of any mass troop concentration and their march towards Scadrial - they would alert Scadrial, giving them months or years to prepare for war (time dilation you can’t ignore). Conscription, training, building defences, industrialization, weapon manufacturing would all happen within this time. Scadrial would have a lot of time to prepare themselves for the Rosharan invasion - Rosharans can’t just pop out next to Elendel and take it on the march. Scadrians would be ready and would be aware of all weak and strong points of Fused, Regals and Radiants, as Ghostbloods certainly kept track of this and had already passed all this knowledge to Scadrian Ghostbloods and Thaidakar himself. Ghostbloods would also provide Scadiral with the means to create aluminum on a truly industrial scale by revealing the secrets of electrolysis, which in TLM was already just a few years ahead. Some of Ghostbloods' agents (which most likely includes a few Skybreakers) would be involved in fighting as well, but their main strength is in information they can provide to the Basin. They are an invaluable help in this war.

We kept discussing small scale strategies of individual Fused and Metalborn. Yes, it’s interesting and fun, but it kind of misses this larger scale I’m talking about now. There are just 2000 Fused of 9 kinds and a few hundreds Skybreakers with their squires, all operating on a very limited amount of Warlight. Yes, they can do many incredible things with their powers, but they can’t be everywhere at once and they can’t do it consistently because they have to ration their investiture. They won’t throw themselves into positions in which they would need a lot of healing because they have to save their light for long weeks/months before getting resupplied (also getting shot hurts). I wanted to show you that Scadrians have a whole bunch of things they can do on their own to counter Fused and it will never be as easy as “teleport behind their back.” Not every strategy I talk about needs to end with a kill, but creating a situation so risky that Fused/Skybreakers won’t be willing to risk their lives and proceed forward with their attack. They don’t have a lot of Warlight, they can’t heal forever, even shrapnels from indirect AA guns are sort of dangerous to them (and it would be trivial to make them out of aluminum, which would be deadly in the end). We can keep going in circles arguing about minor details of how individual people can fight, but I don’t have time for this now and it’s not an ultimate strategy to win the war. The Husk Ones won’t win the war alone. 

For every pull there is a push. There will always be this back and forth going on between Rosharans and Scadrials, some skirmishes will be won, others will be lost, ground will be captured or given constantly. Things will be changing, people dying, it would be a bloody mess. For every machine gun nest destroyed by Fused, there would be a dozen of new ones produced in factories and several on the battlefield that in the meantime slaughtered thousands of regular troops advancing in their neatly packed war paris or pike squares. The number of professional soldiers on Roshar simply doesn’t matter when even untrained conscripts who just got guns into their hands can kill hundreds of them before Rosharans even close the distance to be able to use their swords and spears. The technological difference is so overwhelming that regular troops are just useless in this war, only invested units matter. At best Warforms can be used as an occupational force, which still will be a very deadly task as every second Scadrian has a gun under their pillow. 

Yes, Rosharans will adapt and change their tactics, they will stop relying on formations, but the main problem their uninvested troops are facing is their weapons - they can’t compete against guns with swords and pikes. No matter what tactic they use, they will be shot before they even get close enough to swing their swords. There is not enough Fused and Warlight to solve all their problems.

Yes, Scadrial has no experience in warfare as there were no wars for over 350 years. Well, Elend had no experience in leading armies and fighting battles, but he did something called learning from the past. Today’s generals may not have any experience in combat, but they did learn a lot about warfare. They learn from strategy meanings, theorizing, war games, reading about conflicts of the past, which still provide valuable lessons despite the technology difference. They are not in the best shape, that’s true, but believe it or not, trenches are as old as warfare itself. They have artillery, machine gun nests and dreadnoughts already, they have explosives and trains, they have mountains surrounding the entire Basin. They will struggle, they will learn, but they have one advantage that Rosharans don’t have - they have guns. Both sides will have to learn new tactics and perfect their strategy, but one side starts with swords and spears, the other has guns and artillery. I’m betting on the gun side to adapt faster. Roshar will never be able to utilize their hundreds of thousands of trained soldiers because they don’t have the reach to kill Scadrians with their guns.

And no, Scadrial is not oblivious to bombardment, that’s the sole reason why they started to develop AA guns. Focused Ones are still incomparable to artillery. Don’t even get me started on armor. British Mark I-V tanks had 12-16 mm at the front, 12 mm on sides, 8 mm at the belly, plate armor ranges from 1 to 3 mm, some armors from the early modern period were 4-6 mm thick and they were already being penetrated by weapons of their time (depending on many factors like the angle of impact, or quality of steel etc). Plus Rosharans have a weird aversion to armor and prefer wearing colorful uniforms instead. Because what else than fashion could be the reason for why Kaladin didn’t wear the armor he got from Dalinar at the end of WoK, which could prevent Lezian stabbing him in the neck or prevent Leshwi from draining his Stormlight? I don’t know, apparently uniforms are too fabulous to cover them with armor.

You may want to include Retribution and make him handwave some of the problems away, but he can’t do it. He can’t get involved. He went into hiding for a reason. If he starts getting involved in this war, other Shards would use this situation and they would bunch up against him and maybe even Splinter him. This would no longer be Scadrial vs Roshar war, it would be Cosmere vs Roshar and Taravangian is painfully aware that he can’t win such a war yet. Retribution’s contribution in this war is just as limited as Harmony’s is, but for a different reason.

I feel like I had something more to talk about, but I can’t remember what it was. I’ve already spent way too much time writing this. For now that’s enough. I’ll say it again, I believe neither Roshar nor Scadrial can successfully conquer each other. United Roshar will have the best chances to do this, they could succeed, but it will not be easy as time dilation changed everything. It will always be a gruesome fighting with massive casualties on both sides.

[therunner he/him]

7 hours ago, Isilel said:

So, I am currently re-readin WoK and in chapter 19 in Dalinar's vision the Midnight Essence, something that he can fight with an iron poker, cracks the Plate of a Radiant who has investiture available to him with a claw, and Dalinar thinks that the danger to the Radiants in this instance is real.

I can't help but think that  Radiant plate would do significantly worse against rifle/ machine gun fire or explosives.

Plate would do well against bullets, there are WoBs, there is evidence from books (Roseite golem being from more brittle and soft material, yet being bullet proof). Brandon calls it Powered Armor, and so far all evidence is for that.

Against explosions, from what we see in Sunlit man, it handles quite extreme environmental conditions with ease.

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Bendalloy allomancy would remove the problem entirely. You can easily predict enemy movement trajectories and work out firing solutions when in the bubble, as well as re-load, then drop it to actually fire. Bye-bye Focused Ones. Though, honestly, AoE Leeching via grenades, then massed gun fire would work as well.

That is a good tactic, though I will say that bendalloy is very expansive, so it is not tactic that could be sustained over periods of time. Wayne typically has enough for few minutes at most.

If there are AoE leeching grenades, there will be likely e.g. supresion fabrials or repulsor fabrials to block them from functioning or getting where needed.

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As to the Husked ones, Deep Ones, etc., Seekers should be able to track all of them and shoot them. Possibly dropping Chromium grenades on them first to make it easier. But even if not, the Fused have only so much healing, you don't need to destroy their gemhearts to kill them, as long as you do enough damage.

You have to do enough damage before they get close enough to kill you.

Seeker won't be able to kill Husked One, it is pointless they can track them if they materialize right next to them.

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Do we have any reason to think that any of them had Bronze Allomancy? I really hoped to see them use some Metal Arts against Shallan and Co., particularly since the former owner of the red Aviar had been clearly spiked and had his metalminds stolen, but nada. Maybe, an argument could be made for them using some emotional Allomancy, or Iyatil being able to speed up in minor ways (thought it could have also been skill), but there was nothing concrete. Nobody felt the approach of the Windrunners (whose surge-binding is "loud") either until they ran into them.

We have no evidence either way.

But i maintain that if a power is explicitly setup as not possible to detect because it is quiet, then power which relies on listening to pulses of power won't be able to detect it either.

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It has been specifically mentioned that aluminium bullets would have been dangerous to Wayne, because they would have prevented him from healing around themselves and his body from expelling them.. He was never hit by one, due to the protagonist plot armor.

Yes, and we know that Wayne typically has enough healing to heal few bullets at most.

Fused have enough healing to restore Shardblade wounds, something which requires a lot of Investiture (seemingly comparable to regrowing limbs). They could withstand multiple gunshot wounds.

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The Fused didn't use aluminum spearpoints and arrowheads for the simple reason that it is too soft and they don't have enough metallurgy knowledge and technology to create alloys that would be somewhat harder, but retain it's anti-investiture properties.

Fused do in fact used aluminum coated weapons, it is mentioned several times in WaT.

So they do have some level of that knowledge.

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So, according to this argument plate armor would have been useful during WW1? This doesn't sound right. Also, they'd still suffer force transference from the impacts and get hurt, even if this had been the case.

I mean, tanks are plate armor just thicker, it's just that humans couldn't wear thick enough armor as it would be too heavy.

Circa 12-15 mm of steel plating is enough to stop machine gun fire of steel bullets. If Scadrial is using aluminum ones, than 4-5 mm of steel plating will be enough. Warform and Direform are already comparable to steel armor, so if you then additionally give them actual one on top, they should be mostly protected. 

Yes, you are correct that the force transference will be problematic, but it would still cut their losses dramatically.

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Roshar also doesn't have the quality of steel comparable to that available to the Western World during WW1.

Conversely, Scadrial does not yet have weapons of the power of WW1 ones.

Also, Source?

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Seekers would be very useful for detecting and shooting Fused, particularly the Husked Ones and Deep Ones. Allomantic grenades make a few more Allomantic powers very useful - Aluminum, Cadmium, Duralumin. They would also allow to stretch the use of certain powers far beyond the number of available Mistings, who wouldn't even need to be in battle, just charge for the use of regular soldiers. There are also synergies.

You would be limited by number of allomantic grenades though.

Each one is fueled by Harmonium, which is likely a rare substance. Marasi has trouble obtaining just 3 of those.

They would have them, but I doubt they would be as omnipresent as you suggest.

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We have seen Fused being killed by wholly unpowered people, Thugs would be more dangerous than those.

If i recall right, we saw that once, when Moash caught Leshwi off-guard.

Since Thug cannot heal, them getting close to Fused is simply suicide for them.

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I suspect that Leeching could affect some of the Regals, like stormforms. IIRC, Regals in OB/RoW did get a small amount of voidlight for personal use.

Again, Leecher must be in hand to hand range, where Singers have massive advantage.

Leecher would simply die.

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I am not really sure why you compare Fused draining Radiants of stormlight with their spears - which works like transferring investiture between gems, a somewhat protracted process, with Leeching, which, if not completely instantaneous, is very swift.

Leeching is not instantaneous, there are WoBs that it drains e.g. non-invested metal before Invested one.

And Scadrial is low-investiture world, whereas Roshar is pushing around massive quantities of power. I think it is safe to say that any leeching would take several seconds most of the time.

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Finally, there is the elephant in the room - 30% higher gravity on Scadrial and lack of plentiful ambient investiture to suppress infectious diseases. Which should significantly weaken any Rosharan invasion.

Singers are likely immune to any human diseases, so that is irrelevant.

Singer forces are also at minimum twice as strong as human, so 30% increase in gravity would only mean their advantage is slightly smaller, but not negated.

@alder24  I do agree that it is very time consuming.

4 hours ago, alder24 said:

I’ll start by restating who I think would win in what situation. For a non-united scenario, I believe neither Roshar nor Scadrial can successfully invade and conquer each other for many reasons I’ll get to later. If we consider united planets, Scadrial will also be unable to win on the offensive, however I think united Roshar might have just enough of an edge over Scadrial to win the war. In bath cases, the war would be a bloody massacre for both sides and it would be a very costly victory.

I mostly agree, though I think in non-united scenario Roshar still has shot (if we ignore time warp).

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Roshar has literally no means of getting to Shadesmar as of the end of WaT.

Moreover, the Well of Control is currently empty, it can’t function as a perpendicularity for the nearest future and will need some time to refill - weeks, months, maybe even years.

This is incorrect. In the last Venli chapter, it shows the Well filling with Warlight in liquid form, and rather fast at that.

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My next point is time dilation. You keep dismissing it, while this alone single-handedly wins the war for Scadrial.

I disagree.
Timewarp only blocks Roshar from going off-world, however it won't help Scadrial much in attacking it.

• Scadrial (as you note) has no easy way off-world. Timewarp does not change that.
• Scadrial's sole advantage are guns, and those require ammunition which cannot be created in Cognitive. So they need supply lines running back to Scadrial
• From TLM Melaan epilogue, we see that travelling to other worlds can take easily 1,5 years. Scadrial would have to have supply lines in thousands of miles, and through Shadesmar. They coudn't defend those, and at least 1/3 would be in Rosharan Shadesmar, where timewarp effect both sides.
• Finally, only way to get to Roshar proper is Pernedicularity on Shatterd Plains. That could be relatively easily defended, it would be similar to dome scenario, only easier, since you could soulcast surroundings into e.g. rock to block it off.

So Scadrial cannot get off planet easily, and if they could, they would have gigantic vulnerability in the form of their supply lines. And then they would have very hard time even simply getting to Roshar.

So from that angle, timewarp just means that neither side can attack the other, and we are kinda done.

I ignore timewarp, because I only want to compare what are the actual strategic, tactical and martial options of both planets.

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All those useful and fancy tricks Fused can do to harass Scadrian positions require Warlight. The only way for them to get Warlight right now is to pray to Odium once a day to get it - on Roshar, in the Everstorm.

Incorrect. Listeners and other citizens get Warlight from Everstorm after prayer.

Fused still have access to it via Song of Prayer. That was the deal Odium made with them, and Retribution couldn't just change it or break it. There is no reason for that to change, and it is noted that Fused in Shadesmar still have Light (even though neither Everstorm nor Hightstorm provide Light in Cognitive), so the only way they can get it is via Song of Prayer as before.

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Thirdly, Ghostbloods. They had an extensive network on Roshar, contacts with Fused, access to anti-investiture and even to a Herald and an Unmade - they are a treasure trove of precious knowledge about Roshar.
...
Felt and Aia and possibly some other agents are still on Roshar, they would be aware of any mass troop concentration and their march towards Scadrial

Ghostbloods On Roshar very fully eliminated in only 10 days. They no longer have any contacts with Fused or Unmade, as those who made those contacts and deals are dead. It is highly unlikely that any operatives who can communicate to Scadrial remain, as based on the meeting in WaT, only Felt, Malwish and Mraize communicated with Kelsier. Kelsier didn't even know that the entire operation was dismantled and leadership killed until Shallan called him.

As of now, Ghostbloods don't have any visibility or presence to Rosharan matters.

And lastly, Ghostbloods were unable to stop Set from their plans despite them operating for decades, they are far from the all-powerful group their Rosharan branch pretended they are.

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I wanted to show you that Scadrians have a whole bunch of things they can do on their own to counter Fused and it will never be as easy as “teleport behind their back.” Not every strategy I talk about needs to end with a kill, but creating a situation so risky that Fused/Skybreakers won’t be willing to risk their lives and proceed forward with their attack.

If you have air superiority, you can effectively teleport behind their back, that is why it is so important.
As of now, Roshar has that air superiority, which would cause no end of headaches for Scadrial.

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They don’t have a lot of Warlight, they can’t heal forever, even shrapnels from indirect AA guns are sort of dangerous to them (and it would be trivial to make them out of aluminum, which would be deadly in the end).

Fused do have Warlight, and simple armor would stop aluminum shrapnels.

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Well, Elend had no experience in leading armies and fighting battles, but he did something called learning from the past

Elend could study writing of people who used the same tools he did, current Scadrial generals cannot do that.
They will have to come up with their own.

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I’m betting on the gun side to adapt faster.

What do guns have to do with adaption??? Seriously.

I would assume that the side that actually did fight in a war will be able to adapt faster, then the side that never did, and invented their weapons few years ago.

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Don’t even get me started on armor. British Mark I-V tanks had 12-16 mm at the front, 12 mm on sides, 8 mm at the belly, plate armor ranges from 1 to 3 mm, some armors from the early modern period were 4-6 mm thick and they were already being penetrated by weapons of their time (depending on many factors like the angle of impact, or quality of steel etc).

Right, but you and others keep saying Scadrial will be using aluminum bullets, which will reduce their penetration properties roughly to 1/3.

Which means that 4-5 mm of steel plate would stop those bullets. Put regular 3 mm plate on Warform or Direform, and they have the needed protection, or very close to it.

Quote

Plus Rosharans have a weird aversion to armor and prefer wearing colorful uniforms instead. Because what else than fashion could be the

Not true, regular soldiers do wear steel armor in all the books.

Quote

reason for why Kaladin didn’t wear the armor he got from Dalinar at the end of WoK, which could prevent Lezian stabbing him in the neck or prevent Leshwi from draining his Stormlight? I don’t know, apparently uniforms are too fabulous to cover them with armor.

Do you know why Windrunner don't wear armor? Because they would have to always lash it as well as themselves. If they wouldn't, the armor would be pushing on them with quite unpleasant forces, with their healing abilities cloth is more practical. Basically, armor would hinder them much more than regular soldier.


I'll try to summarize my points, if they two sides ever got into battle (irrespective of location)

• Scadrial
  • Their primary advantage are guns, but that renders them dependent on supply lines (bullets and spare parts don't grow on trees).
  • They lack air force, which means they cannot properly defend those supply lines, rendering all of their tactics vulnerable.
  • They also have tiny manpower, and training takes months of time (and no, untrained dude with gun won't be killing hundreds of Regals).
• Roshar
  • Primary advantage are Invested forces, both Fused and Regals.
  • Their primary issues is inability to lead ranged combat. Some Fused can get around that (Husked Ones being primary example).
  • However, they can disrupt Scadrial supply lines easily (Heavenly Ones and Skybreakers can simply fly over 'battle lines' and attack either convoys, trains or factories).
  • They can also by simply putting on steel armor make their soldiers very resistant to aluminum bullets. Regular steel bullets would be still effective, however those could be affected by attractor or repulsor fabrials.
  • Roshar can also replicate the advantage of Scadrial more easily than vice versa.

All in all as things stand currently, to me it seems that Scadrial tactics (i.e. use guns) are wholly dependent on supply lines they have no hope of defending. Roshar forces can disrupt those, and then grind them down. It wouldn't be pretty, but it would be doable.

This is as things are now, any development of future technologies would shift this (e.g. planes). But since we know that few short centuries into the future Scadrial and Roshar are at war, and neither seemingly has upper hand, it is unlikely that either side gets too far ahead of the other.
 

Quote

It will always be a gruesome fighting with massive casualties on both sides.

On that we can agree.

Edited December 22, 2024 by therunner

[SwordNimiForPresident the sword/that sword]

I wonder how big of a deal Roshar's lack of exposure to outside diseases would be. The common cold was apparently new at the time of TWoK, what if you introduced something a bit more spicy like small pox?

[NameIess]

1 hour ago, SwordNimiForPresident said:

I wonder how big of a deal Roshar's lack of exposure to outside diseases would be. The common cold was apparently new at the time of TWoK, what if you introduced something a bit more spicy like small pox?

I think the Rosharan’s more invested souls would prevent it from spreading too rampantly. There’s a reason they don’t have smallpox on their homewold.

[SwordNimiForPresident the sword/that sword]

1 hour ago, NameIess said:

I think the Rosharan’s more invested souls would prevent it from spreading too rampantly. There’s a reason they don’t have smallpox on their homewold.

I must have missed it somewhere. Where did we learn that Rosharans are more invested?

[NameIess]

2 minutes ago, SwordNimiForPresident said:

I must have missed it somewhere. Where did we learn that Rosharans are more invested?

Here’s the WoB:

Spoiler

stormfather (paraphrased)

Does the plague on the Purelake has anything to do with the fact that the magic fish form symbiotic bonds with spren?

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

No, worldhoppers brought a disease to Roshar that they didn't have before. It's the common cold. Rosharans' Investiture makes it so they're usually a healthy bunch so something like the cold is kind of frightening. "It's a plague of the sniffles."

stormfather [Alternate wording from ZenBossanova's report] (paraphrased)

Another person asked about the plague in the Purelake.

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

Turns out, that was a pathogen introduced by worldhoppers. People on Roshar normally have greater health than elsewhere in the cosmere because they are more Invested (Stormlight and all that). This plague was what we call… the common cold.

Firefight Phoenix signing (Jan. 21, 2015)

 

[SwordNimiForPresident the sword/that sword]

2 minutes ago, NameIess said:

Here’s the WoB:

  Hide contents

 

stormfather (paraphrased)

Does the plague on the Purelake has anything to do with the fact that the magic fish form symbiotic bonds with spren?

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

No, worldhoppers brought a disease to Roshar that they didn't have before. It's the common cold. Rosharans' Investiture makes it so they're usually a healthy bunch so something like the cold is kind of frightening. "It's a plague of the sniffles."

stormfather [Alternate wording from ZenBossanova's report] (paraphrased)

Another person asked about the plague in the Purelake.

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

Turns out, that was a pathogen introduced by worldhoppers. People on Roshar normally have greater health than elsewhere in the cosmere because they are more Invested (Stormlight and all that). This plague was what we call… the common cold.

Firefight Phoenix signing (Jan. 21, 2015)

 

I almost wish he wouldn't answer questions outside of his books, there's like a million pages of WoB's that I can't bothered to read because they aren't canon.

Edited December 23, 2024 by SwordNimiForPresident

[Isilel]

9 hours ago, NameIess said:

I think the Rosharan’s more invested souls would prevent it from spreading too rampantly. 

 

I think that the investiture mentioned in the WoB you provided applies to the ambient investiture on Roshar, i.e. stormlight and crem, rather than the people themselves. Except for spren in singer gemhearts, I guess.

In fact, I expect epidemics to become a problem in the post-Retribution world.

They should also have a nuclear winter and massive die-off of wild flora and fauna due to perpetual clouds and lack of stormlight and crem, while the overabundance of water ought to damage the growth of even cultivated plants being treated with Warlight. But I don't expect Sanderson to go that apocalyptic. 

I also wonder how all the creatures who depended on highstorms to mature and bond spren are going to fare without them.

[NameIess]

6 hours ago, Isilel said:

I think that the investiture mentioned in the WoB you provided applies to the ambient investiture on Roshar, i.e. stormlight and crem, rather than the people themselves. Except for spren in singer gemhearts, I guess.

In fact, I expect epidemics to become a problem in the post-Retribution world.

They should also have a nuclear winter and massive die-off of wild flora and fauna due to perpetual clouds and lack of stormlight and crem, while the overabundance of water ought to damage the growth of even cultivated plants being treated with Warlight. But I don't expect Sanderson to go that apocalyptic. 

I also wonder how all the creatures who depended on highstorms to mature and bond spren are going to fare without them.

The people of Roshar are more Invested than average because of the ambient Investiture of Roshar. That could change with the ending of the Highstorm, but I doubt Retribution wants to cripple his world so badly, so I’d guess that either the presence of Warlight spheres or the Everstorm itself will maintain that invested state. Considering that Retribution also wants the Singers to be able to take forms, I’ll guess that creatures needing Highstorms to bond spren can probably do so in the Everstorm.

[alder24]

17 hours ago, therunner said:

This is incorrect. In the last Venli chapter, it shows the Well filling with Warlight in liquid form, and rather fast at that.

It was said that the well was empty and was being refilled. We don't know the rate of filling, we know it's currently empty, which is what I said. WaT ch 146:

Quote

Venli ran past him to the building where, using Retribution’s gifted Light, she’d secretly made a passage downward, and had found the underground pool to be empty.
Now, with her mother and Bila, she reached the pool and found the strange too-thick liquid returning. Welling up from the ground.

 

17 hours ago, therunner said:

Timewarp only blocks Roshar from going off-world, however it won't help Scadrial much in attacking it.

I covered it later in my post how time dilation would help Scadial deliver supplies to Roshar. This won't win the war for them, but they can spend much more time manufacturing supplies that would be delivered daily to Roshar. 

17 hours ago, therunner said:

I ignore timewarp, because I only want to compare what are the actual strategic, tactical and martial options of both planets.

Dealing with time dilation is hugely important and new strategies have to be developed for that. You can't ignore it and just state that Roshar would win, while time dilation is the single most difficult obstacle for Rosharans to overcome. 

18 hours ago, therunner said:

Fused still have access to it via Song of Prayer. That was the deal Odium made with them, and Retribution couldn't just change it or break it. There is no reason for that to change, and it is noted that Fused in Shadesmar still have Light (even though neither Everstorm nor Hightstorm provide Light in Cognitive), so the only way they can get it is via Song of Prayer as before.

There is no indication that the Song of Prayer still works as it worked before. Contrary, it seems that the prayer Retribution requires is the Song of Prayer. There is no Odium anymore, there is no Voidlight, things have changed. The Song of Prayer shouldn't work anymore. Venli, Leshwi and other Listener Fused can't produce their own Warlight by singing the Song of Prayer, their only source of light is the one given to them by Retribution following his instructions. If the Song of Prayer still worked, Venli wouldn't have had to do this, WaT ch 146:

Quote

For now, the listeners were allowed his Light to fuel their powers, should they wish it. The messenger also explained that they could use it to grow crops, as Stormlight had once done.
They received this Light once a day, at midnight, by placing their spheres beneath the sky and asking him to bless them. Retribution asked for nothing in exchange, and had promised he did not see himself as their god. Only an interested party wishing to offer them help.
They had done as instructed last night, testing his word, and now had filled gemstones. With that, they could survive in this land. Their need to do so, however, worried her.

 

18 hours ago, therunner said:

Ghostbloods On Roshar very fully eliminated in only 10 days. They no longer have any contacts with Fused or Unmade, as those who made those contacts and deals are dead.

I said they had and through those contacts they've gathered knowledge, knowledge that would be now in Kelsier's hands.

18 hours ago, therunner said:

It is highly unlikely that any operatives who can communicate to Scadrial remain

Ala is a Ghostblood. She can even communicate with other Seons present on Roshar. 

18 hours ago, therunner said:

As of now, Ghostbloods don't have any visibility or presence to Rosharan matters.

A troop concentration for an interplanetary invasion around one singular point of passage between the Cognitive and Physical Realm would be noticeable in both Shadesmar and the Physical Realm. It's hard to miss the entire continent mobilizing for war against another planet.

18 hours ago, therunner said:

If you have air superiority, you can effectively teleport behind their back, that is why it is so important.
As of now, Roshar has that air superiority, which would cause no end of headaches for Scadrial.

Air superiority is not the same as air supremacy. Even with Rosharan air superiority I believe that Scadrial would be able to effectively fight against Rosharan flying units as I've discussed in my previous posts. The same goes for the Husk Ones.

18 hours ago, therunner said:

Right, but you and others keep saying Scadrial will be using aluminum bullets, which will reduce their penetration properties roughly to 1/3.

I honestly don't know why you keep thinking that they would be using only aluminum bullets. You know they can use both? They can have magazines with either aluminum or normal bullets, they can have magazines with both of them mixed, they can have dedicated positions for just aluminum bullets etc. You're nitpicking over something that was already shown to us in books - in Era 2 there were situations where Wax started flying and his opponents switched their bullets to aluminum ones.

18 hours ago, therunner said:

Put regular 3 mm plate on Warform or Direform, and they have the needed protection, or very close to it.

Generally armor needs to be tightly fitted to the body, Singers' irregular carapace prevents them from using it. They can't put an armor on carapace that has spikes everywhere:

Spoiler

 

18 hours ago, therunner said:

Do you know why Windrunner don't wear armor? Because they would have to always lash it as well as themselves. If they wouldn't, the armor would be pushing on them with quite unpleasant forces, with their healing abilities cloth is more practical. Basically, armor would hinder them much more than regular soldier.

Do they Lash their clothes separately? Their spears? No. Perception and Intent matters here. The armor would have been automatically Lashed with them.

[NameIess]

15 minutes ago, alder24 said:

It was said that the well was empty and was being refilled. We don't know the rate of filling, we know it's currently empty, which is what I said. WaT ch 146:

 

I covered it later in my post how time dilation would help Scadial deliver supplies to Roshar. This won't win the war for them, but they can spend much more time manufacturing supplies that would be delivered daily to Roshar. 

Dealing with time dilation is hugely important and new strategies have to be developed for that. You can't ignore it and just state that Roshar would win, while time dilation is the single most difficult obstacle for Rosharans to overcome. 

There is no indication that the Song of Prayer still works as it worked before. Contrary, it seems that the prayer Retribution requires is the Song of Prayer. There is no Odium anymore, there is no Voidlight, things have changed. The Song of Prayer shouldn't work anymore. Venli, Leshwi and other Listener Fused can't produce their own Warlight by singing the Song of Prayer, their only source of light is the one given to them by Retribution following his instructions. If the Song of Prayer still worked, Venli wouldn't have had to do this, WaT ch 146:

 

I said they had and through those contacts they've gathered knowledge, knowledge that would be now in Kelsier's hands.

Ala is a Ghostblood. She can even communicate with other Seons present on Roshar. 

A troop concentration for an interplanetary invasion around one singular point of passage between the Cognitive and Physical Realm would be noticeable in both Shadesmar and the Physical Realm. It's hard to miss the entire continent mobilizing for war against another planet.

Air superiority is not the same as air supremacy. Even with Rosharan air superiority I believe that Scadrial would be able to effectively fight against Rosharan flying units as I've discussed in my previous posts. The same goes for the Husk Ones.

I honestly don't know why you keep thinking that they would be using only aluminum bullets. You know they can use both? They can have magazines with either aluminum or normal bullets, they can have magazines with both of them mixed, they can have dedicated positions for just aluminum bullets etc. You're nitpicking over something that was already shown to us in books - in Era 2 there were situations where Wax started flying and his opponents switched their bullets to aluminum ones.

Generally armor needs to be tightly fitted to the body, Singers' irregular carapace prevents them from using it. They can't put an armor on carapace that has spikes everywhere:

  Hide contents

 

Do they Lash their clothes separately? Their spears? No. Perception and Intent matters here. The armor would have been automatically Lashed with them.

Lashing armor would take a lot of Stormlight.

[alder24]

37 minutes ago, NameIess said:

Lashing armor would take a lot of Stormlight.

Not really, compared to the amount of Stormlight needed to lash yourself. Full plate armor does weigh around 20 kg, but they don't have to wear this much. There are a lot of armor types weighing 5-10 kg, which is not that big an expense when you have to Lash 80 kg of flesh anyway. Wearing any armor would be a great improvement.

[DSCrankshaw]

 

On 12/22/2024 at 2:08 PM, alder24 said:

Currently there is no active perpendicularity on Roshar and Harmony’s perpendicularity is in some unknown location, probably within Malwish territory. To make things even more problematic, she would probably need a ton of investiture to open a gate over such a massive distance (if that’s even possible for her at all). If that’s not enough, Retribution’s perpendicularity and the entire Shattered Plains are under Listeners control, so in the case of non-united planets, Retribution can’t even use his own Shardpool to move his troops or to create Elsegates with Dai-Gonarthis because she can’t get close enough to the Shardpool. Plus, there is also a price to be paid for using this Unamde - I think it was mentioned that she wants to destroy Roshar - whatever it means, this is such a cost that not even Rayse was employing her lightly. An Oathgate created on Scadrial will appear half a continent away from the Basin, next to Harmony’s perpendicularity, on land controlled by Malwish (which had to be dealt with either with diplomacy or with force), giving the Northerners plenty of time to prepare defences along the way. 

Didn't Nicelle Sauvage find the Perpendicularity in the Southern Roughs? In the Shadows of Self, The House Record Part 3, she describes the following:

Quote

VISITORS from other WORLDS

[A black head-and-neck silhouette with a mane of hair tied in a crown of small ponytails. The face is marked with white lines and decorations that frame the forehead, eyes, cheeks, and mouth. It also has a scraggly beard along its jaw and chin.]

Rarely does The House Record bring news of the sensational, but the reputable Lady Nicelle Sauvage of New Seran has contacted us with a report that will shock you.

“I was lost in the mountains south of the Southern Roughs,” said Sauvage. “And my fellow travellers had either left me or died. That’s when I came upon a mountain pool of the most perfect blue, fed by the melting snows of the heights. Harmony, but I thought I’d reached Paradise.”

As twilight struck early, as it is wont to do in the mountains, Sauvage saw a hunched figure by the pool. “Just a shadow, really,” she said. “Piercing eyes, and a face like some otherworldly beast from one of those hideous pulp stories. I regret to say I hadn’t the courage to engage this Visitor. Instead, its horrible visage struck right at my heart. I let preservation instinct take over and ran for an hour before making camp elsewhere.”

That sounds like Harmony’s pool, even if they don't recognize it. 

The accompanying illustration (described in the italics) is appropriately sensationalistic, but reminds me of nothing so much as a singer or Fused. So war or not, I think Retribution's spies and scouts may have already reached Scadrial.

Edited December 27, 2024 by DSCrankshaw

[bmcclure7]

On 12/16/2024 at 5:31 PM, alder24 said:

Oh no, I don't know if I'm ready for this. Without Frustration it's not the same  

I think everything changed because Radiants are essentially out of the equation now. No Bondsmiths, most Radiants are stuck in Urithiru, unable to get out, or use any light other than the Towerlight, which can't be transported out of the Tower. The only Radiants that can participate are Listener's Willshapers (which are a neutral faction), Retribution's Dustbringer, Skybreakers and potentially a few Enlightened Radiants working for Retribution (which I don't know any if any were said to be on his side. Sja-Anat switched sides and works for Ghostbloods now). Those will have access to Warlight directly from Retribution. 

However, I think Skybreaker's allegiance is uncertain. They've joined Odum only because of Nale and now he is thinking more clearly and he's rejoined the Oathpact, standing strongly in opposition to Retribution. I wouldn't be surprised that if this news ever reaches Skybreakers, they will abandon Retribution en masse, probably choosing neutrality or joining dissenters. But that's speculative so let's assume they remain loyal to Retribution.

This means Taravangian can right now muster around 2000 Fused (out of 4000 in total, the rest is too insane to participate in war as stated somewhere in the book), a few hundred Radiants (mainly from two Orders), and thousands of Regals. That's not impressive when you remember that Sigzil and Adolin with their limited forces were able to hold against the overwhelming forces of Odium for so long. However, his aces are Unmades who now can leave Roshar and they can cause significant havoc  - but Mishram is probably against Taravangian now, Sja-Anat might work for Scadrial, Thrill is making new friends at the bottom of the ocean - that's 3/9 out of the game, including his most powerful Unmades.

Considering that there are at least 20,000 Metalborn in the Basin alone and they all have modern weaponry at their disposition - guns, machine guns, tnt, artillery, trains and dreadnoughts - regular foot soldiers from Roshar stand no chance against Scadrial, Rosharan Invested troops look extremely weak compared to what we had after the release of TLM. 

And that's not mentioning logistics as Rosharans quite literally lost all access to the Cognitive Realm and are unable to even leave their planet, unless Odium and Listeners grant them access to the only perpendicularity left on the planet (which was empty, it's not working yet, it's only just begun to fill and it will take years before it gets full). Fortunately for Taravangian, Dai-Gonarthis can create Elsegates in places of massive concentration of investiture (which don't exist anymore on Roshar until Retribution's perpendicularity becomes full), but the cost is apparently so high that even Rayse was not willing to pay it (destruction of Roshar???) So they can create a perpendicularity in a close proximity of an already existing perpendicularity on Scadrial (which doesn't really make any difference, it's almost the same place anyway).

And then there is the time dilation. This means no supply trains can be reasonably established from Roshar, even providing a steady supply of Warlight from Roshar is impossible because of massive time differences between those two words. The logistics of this war are a real nightmare now.

This all makes me think that Scadrians might have a much better chance at launching an invasion on Roshar than Rosharan would have at invading Scadrial. Still it doesn't mean Scadrians would have won invading Roshar, but I think in defence Scadrial would probably win after a brutal conflict against Retribution's forces as they are right now (that's scenario 1 I think).

In scenario 2 I think it would be even worse for Roshar. 80 years of technological progress on Scadrial compared to 10 on Roshar. Even if Taravangian gives them tech comparable to Era 2, Scadrial will have 80s tech (which is M1 Abrams tank and F16 jets and many other things that are still used by US today!!). They would be blasted into oblivion by Scadrial without even using their Metalborn. I even believe Scadrial would be able to successfully conquer Roshar.

If Urithiru, Azir, Narak and Taravangian were to unite, then I think they would win even without Bondsmiths. But that's unrealistic for now. 

i’m not so certain the main stream Sky breakers would leave retribution, after all their ideology seems to fit well within retributions intent. And currently he is the undisputed legal ruler of Roshar, or at least most of it. No, I think they will stay with him for a while

Scenario 1: Retribution loses there’s a reason why he was so upset with the end of The contest of champions. He is in no position to start a war right now. Over half his fused are insane. 
Regals have powers. But that alone won’t overcome the advantage of modern firearms. We have seen that even without firearms, regular soldiers can fight against regals and win in the right circumstances. 
 

2. Scenario 2. Hard to say, we don’t know what the ascension of retribution will do to the magic system.   Will see retribution spren able to make bonds? Will retribution, make more fused. Will the knights radiant, be able to access the full power of the surges 

now that all oaths made by honor have been forsworn? Overall I think Roshar does better in this timeline. It gives retribution more time to prepare to make a new fused.  Etc.

 

scenario three same as scenario two

[therunner he/him]

On 12/23/2024 at 6:49 PM, alder24 said:

It was said that the well was empty and was being refilled. We don't know the rate of filling, we know it's currently empty, which is what I said.

No, it is not empty

Quote

Now, with her mother and Bila, she reached the pool and found the strange too-thick liquid returning. Welling up from the ground.

That is very much not empty. It was empty before, now its refilling, and quickly enough that it is noticeable just standing there.

If it was empty, there wouldn't be liquid inside.

Quote

There is no indication that the Song of Prayer still works as it worked before. Contrary, it seems that the prayer Retribution requires is the Song of Prayer. There is no Odium anymore, there is no Voidlight, things have changed. The Song of Prayer shouldn't work anymore.

There is an indiciation Song of Prayer still works, Fused in Shadesmar have Light.

Additionally, why would it stop working? Odium clearly set up agreement with his Fused and Regals to supply them with Light after they sign Song of Prayer.
Odium is now merged with Honor, who is kinda obsessed with keeping your word. How would that let Odium break his word?

Quote

Venli, Leshwi and other Listener Fused can't produce their own Warlight by singing the Song of Prayer, their only source of light is the one given to them by Retribution following his instructions. If the Song of Prayer still worked, Venli wouldn't have had to do this,

Venli and Listeners defected from Odium, i.e. broke their agreement first.
As such Odium/Retribution does not have to follow any agreement he had with them.

Quote

Ala is a Ghostblood. She can even communicate with other Seons present on Roshar. 

And Shallan has her in custody, she will know as much or as little Shallan lets her.

Quote

A troop concentration for an interplanetary invasion around one singular point of passage between the Cognitive and Physical Realm would be noticeable in both Shadesmar and the Physical Realm. It's hard to miss the entire continent mobilizing for war against another planet.

Both PR and CR are controlled by Retribution. Even if no one misses it, no one can also let Scadrial know (just keep Ala in box elsewhere).

Quote

Air superiority is not the same as air supremacy. Even with Rosharan air superiority I believe that Scadrial would be able to effectively fight against Rosharan flying units as I've discussed in my previous posts. The same goes for the Husk Ones.

Roshar has air supremacy, Scadrial lack air force, and their AA gun are wholly insufficient. They are trying to use ~1900s weapons to fight what are WW2 planes in speeds, and their betters in maneuverability.

Quote

I honestly don't know why you keep thinking that they would be using only aluminum bullets. You know they can use both? They can have magazines with either aluminum or normal bullets, they can have magazines with both of them mixed, they can have dedicated positions for just aluminum bullets etc. You're nitpicking over something that was already shown to us in books - in Era 2 there were situations where Wax started flying and his opponents switched their bullets to aluminum ones.

Point is that Roshar can defend against both

• Aluminum bullets: armor helps or even fully resolves it
• Non-Aluminum bullets: Repulsor or Attractor fabrials

Aluminum bullets are the better option in my opinion, but they are not 'silver bullet' so to speak.

Quote

Generally armor needs to be tightly fitted to the body, Singers' irregular carapace prevents them from using it. They can't put an armor on carapace that has spikes everywhere:

You can put holes for spikes, or create soulcast armor right on top of them (which is costly).

Direform chest also looks relatively spike free, so you could protect their vitals anyway.

Quote

Do they Lash their clothes separately? Their spears? No. Perception and Intent matters here. The armor would have been automatically Lashed with them.

They wouldn't have to Lash their clothes, any force would be negligible and they would carry it.
Same or similar for weapons. Unless for high extremes of lashing.

Similarly, do you think that anything Radiant carries will get Lashed with them?

If you Lash yourself, you at most Lash anything you perceive as part of yourself. If you don't see armor as that, you won't.
Likely more people see clothing as part of themselves, since they carry it all the time (especially if it uniform) vs steel armor you put on solely for battle.

On 12/23/2024 at 7:48 PM, alder24 said:

Not really, compared to the amount of Stormlight needed to lash yourself. Full plate armor does weigh around 20 kg, but they don't have to wear this much. There are a lot of armor types weighing 5-10 kg, which is not that big an expense when you have to Lash 80 kg of flesh anyway. Wearing any armor would be a great improvement.

Lashing yourself is likely more cost effective than Lashing external objects.
We know that Radiants hold Stormlight better, and e.g. Heavenly Ones can fly indefinitely, suggesting that Lashing yourself is relatively cheaper.

Edited December 28, 2024 by therunner

[DSCrankshaw]

I do wonder if this will be the plot of the later books. Not a conflict between Retribution's forces and what remains of Honor's, but an outside invasion from another Shard, possibly from Scadrial, though we'll have to see Mistborn Era 3 first to see if that makes sense.

[OoklaApologist She/her]

On 12/17/2024 at 10:09 AM, Isilel said:

 

After Kaladin's fight with Nale showed that living Radiant armor can also be damaged and rendered non-functional for a time by heavy blows,  I'd say that a Mistborn with access to guns and aluminium bullets/shotgun shells filled with aluminium shot, alongside with normal ammunition, would have a very good chance of defeating most 4th Ideal Radiants one on one. 

 

 

Good point. I don’t exactly know how they would interact, but I’m convinced shardplate sections would shatter under conventional antitank weapons

[Raven Wilder]

I don't know that aluminum bullets would actually be any more effective at damaging Shardplate than a regular bullet - in fact they'd probably be less effective, given aluminum is a relatively soft metal.

From what we've seen, it's impossible to send Investiture into or through a piece of aluminum, but simply being in contact with aluminum does nothing to disrupt an Invested person or object. Carrying an aluminum sheathe around in no way hinders Szeth's Surgebinding abilities, and while Shardblades don't cut aluminum, they also don't get dismissed from the Physical Realm or have their edges dulled at all from the impact, either. So if an aluminum bullet collides with Shardplate, I'd expect the Plate to be just as durable as it always is.

[Argenti he/him]

1 hour ago, Raven Wilder said:

I don't know that aluminum bullets would actually be any more effective at damaging Shardplate than a regular bullet - in fact they'd probably be less effective, given aluminum is a relatively soft metal.

From what we've seen, it's impossible to send Investiture into or through a piece of aluminum, but simply being in contact with aluminum does nothing to disrupt an Invested person or object. Carrying an aluminum sheathe around in no way hinders Szeth's Surgebinding abilities, and while Shardblades don't cut aluminum, they also don't get dismissed from the Physical Realm or have their edges dulled at all from the impact, either. So if an aluminum bullet collides with Shardplate, I'd expect the Plate to be just as durable as it always is.

This! Aluminum isn't affected by investiture, it doesn't absorb it. Shard plate probably would be unable to reform around it, but that's beside the point. 

[therunner he/him]

On 1/3/2025 at 11:28 PM, KelsierApologist said:

Good point. I don’t exactly know how they would interact, but I’m convinced shardplate sections would shatter under conventional antitank weapons

Quite likely given what we know, but Shardbearer or 4th Oath Radiant are faster than most tanks up to WW2. And Scadrial does not have any antitank weapons.



On topic of armor vs bullets:
 

• Ned Kelly in 1880s used 6mm iron cold wrought armor, that made him fully bulletproof.
  • Iron has much worse properties for armor, circa 3-4mm of quality steel would do the same job.
• In WW1 both sides experimented with armor for soldiers, but it was deemed not cost effective. Some armor was still used, which was very effective against shrapnel, and steel breastplates were also effective against bullets. Data was even gathered which showed that armor was effective in protecting soldiers from rifle and machine gun bullets in 34 % of the time.
  • Primary limitation was cost and added weight.
    • Weight is non-factor to Regals, as they are already much stronger than humans.
    • Cost is less of a factor as they already have some in-built armor (which is apparently comparable to steel plate) and soulcasting makes it relatively cheaper.
  • Even relatively light weight armor (~4 kg) was capable of stopping pistol rounds, and heavier 20kg was capable of stopping rifle rounds.
• German "lobster" armor using steel plates weight at 12 kg, and was capable of stopping full powered rifle rounds from range of circa 250 meters.

So to sum up, yes armor is effective against guns, but for humans the added weight renders it unsuitable (and expensive).

Regals have already in build equivalent of light armor, rendering them heavily shielded against small arms fire and shrapnel, and slightly against rifles and machine guns. If on top of that you give them regular steel plate armor, you can make them highly resistant against both rifles and machine gun fire as well.

In addition, if Scadrian forces would be using aluminum bullets, even "light" armor would be capable of stopping such rounds, due to worse penetrative capabilities of such ammunition. Using non-aluminum ammo is not advisable, as that could be affected by repulsor or attractor fabrials, making aiming much more difficult.

Edited January 5, 2025 by therunner

[Raven Wilder]

Have we ever seen a singer wearing non-Shardplate armor ontop of carapace?

[therunner he/him]

13 hours ago, Raven Wilder said:

Have we ever seen a singer wearing non-Shardplate armor ontop of carapace?

No, not yet.

Frankly they didn't have any reason to do so.
Warform, Stormform and Direform carapace is comparable or stronger than Alethi steel armor, so they are sufficiently protected against regular weapons.
And against Shardblade, more armor won't help.

But as Shardplate shows, they are willing to put on additional armor if it makes a difference.

[rabidhexley]

The thing about Shardplate is that it seems to function less like conventional armor and more like a nigh-impenetrable energy shield with HP.

 

It's pretty difficult to straight-up shatter a well-craft piece of armor with hammers, it bends and warps, whereas Shardplate seems to be pretty vulnerable to repeated heavy blows even from non-superpowered hits, literally disintegrating after enough hits. The advantage is that the protection of Shardplate is nearly absolute until in breaks, whereas many attacks will have literally no effect on plate armor, but could still be dangerous to the wearer.

 

So it's more accurate to think of it like an energy shield (that also provides physical enhancements) than regular armor. You're almost completely safe until it breaks, but when it breaks it breaks, and it can be worn down by repeated hits.

 

It's pretty unclear how long it would hold up against bullets, but I do think heavy fire would indeed be a threat, and high caliber fire could likely shatter a piece in close to one hit, though would likely protect against that hit.

 

1v1 I think Mistborn armed with aluminum weaponry aren't completely outclassed. Just from the power of bendalloy, pewter, and that they can use duralumin for mental attacks and potential one-hit kills. Duralumin Steel push spray to break armor. Vin literally made a dude's head explode with a duralumin-boosted pewter hit. Healing-factor that. They would need to be good though, and most Mistborn aren't necessarily on that level.

 

If we're only talking about the abilities of Rosharans today. The more time goes on, the more of a potential edge Scadrians will begin to develop against them. But Rosharans very clearly have the strongest standard invested prior to becoming Cosmere-aware. (with the exception of Elantrians, who seem to have the closest thing to freeform spellcasting in the Cosmere, but are balanced by their geographic limits and requiring Dor)

 

There are a few key advantages Rosharan invested have: universal healing-factor, plate (for some), true flight (for some), Soulcasting, and Elsecalling. The last two in particular being pretty hard counters. Not getting into Bondsmithing. They have other strong abilities, but those are the key ones that give them a particular edge in my eyes.

 

Long-term I forsee Scadrians eventually being able to develop Shock troops with numerous metallic abilities on-demand. It's just a matter of time. Superspeed and Gold compounding, leaching, bendalloy bubbles (freeze time and line up attacks), duralumin pushes and mind-blasts. Once you get to the point where you can almost freely allocate metallic abilities, Scadrians get pretty dangerous. Imagine a squad of elite troops that can each temporarily grant themselves Fullborn abilities. (I'm calling this as a thing in at least sci-fi Mistborn, if not sooner). Rosharan invested (except for maybe Heralds from what we've seen) don't currently have direct counters for superspeed (Lift was underestimated) or time-based hacks, and can't freely allocate surges.

 

The problem for Scadrians is that one can't assume Roshar will stand still either.

Edited January 9, 2025 by rabidhexley

[Anttix]

I think healing really is the biggest thing for Roshar's side if all surges and enough investiture is available. As soon as you can do anything with Stormlight, you can regrow about anything and really need to be about sliced in two or blown to pieces to die. And of course with enough investiture Abrasion can be used by one person to heal hundreds per day.

Goldminds are just about useless in comparison, and compounding gold without any other abilities (as is usually the case) really isn't at all impressive against surgebinders that all have essentially that same ability but also the actual surges.

With enough available investiture, one coud say that every surgebinder, even lowest squire, is more invested than Miles Hundredlives.

99,9(9)% of Scadrias, including Mistborns, have no access to investiture healing.

If there is no available investiture, the situation is of course quite different, modern weapons give a significant edge and surgebinding isn't a thing at all.

Edited January 13, 2025 by Anttix