The Unknown Ajah Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 10 hours ago, Kasimir said: JNV doesn't miss kills when Evil. They came on at Night, therefore would have put in a holding order. If there's a player I have confidence in meta-reading at all, it's probably JNV. I don't say this because I think they're in danger now, but I just want it solidly there if I'm dead tonight since I think they are readable. That's fair, and while I kinda agree, I do disagree on a few things. I don't recall JNV being big on placeholder kills when I was an elim with them (read, I don't remember them ever doing one). That game is also an example of low activity, low WiM JNV I think. I'm mostly drawing from that data point here cause I don't really remember another e!JNV game. I am willing to defer to you on this though, as I do remember you being accurate with this in the past, but I'll keep my vote on JNV for at least a while longer as a sort of turn 2 poke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRavenHasLanded Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 kas as I’m just going with a random gut feeling. Somehow, the game solving seems somewhat desperate… like he’s reaching or hiding something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 46 minutes ago, TheRavenHasLanded said: kas as I’m just going with a random gut feeling. Somehow, the game solving seems somewhat desperate… like he’s reaching or hiding something Did you get any results from your Midnight Spores, Aman is having me ask. For now that is all o7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 Kas admit it you read JNV by voodoo magic lil wee space faeries Raven fwiw I'm almost certain Kas is village, the reason why it feels like he's reaching is because he's used to understanding the game state and it genuinely bothers him when he doesn't Vote Tally RoyalBeeMage (3): DrakeMarshall, Faerie Braids, Kasimir Kasimir (1): TheRavenHasLanded JNV (1): The Bald Brandon Faerie Braids (1): Amanuensis Some people have voiced concerns that Faerie is voting for Royal, since Faerie is somewhat suspicious, but personally I think it's actually a slightly reassuring sign Yes, it means Faerie and Royal E/E is less likely, and if I were committed to the idea of an E/E connection, it'd be a red flag But it also means that v!Faerie credences are rising, and therefore that v!Royal credences are falling I think when you find yourself in a shortlist of suspects, it's extremely natural as a villager to gun for the other suspicious people, because with your perspective of the game state you likely have more reason than everyone else to believe they are evil, and what's more their flip might help clear your name. Whereas it is honestly not a very natural move for an elim to gun for the other suspects, because they know that even if they succeed in executing the other suspects before them, they will probably still die next, and dying a little later than you otherwise would have is cold comfort when your main objective is not dying. Therefore, they will generally try to delay and do anything but vote for the other people in the PoE with them. If they even have a concerted response, it will often be some flavor of focusing on undermining the points against them and/or on undermining the PoE itself. TL;DR - v!Faerie? e!Royal? e!Raven? maybe Or maybe Royal's village, I mean statistically most players are village, but I want a Royal flip though, sorry Royal Honestly I feel like there just isn't much information to read at this point, the voting engagement hasn't been that high and the D1 vote didn't feel like it helped my understanding much It's probably worth saying something about the present lack of strong Royal defense, but I kind of think the types of players who proactively defend Royal are similar to the types of players who make sure that they kill someone, so this type of argument holds a little less water than it might normally. Maybe the elims didn't kill, maybe the kill was blocked but nobody's claiming it for some reason, maybe they killed TJ for some reason -- I'm left hedging between possibilities. I think Aman is village, probably, but not for sure This is post #3 for me already which might be too brave but I dunno if I'll be back before EoD anyways Surely everything won't explode in the last 2 hours, right? right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRavenHasLanded Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 2 hours ago, Amanuensis said: Did you get any results from your Midnight Spores, Aman is having me ask. For now that is all o7 I took no actions during the night, so I might do something this upcoming night. Spring break has been mean to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 (edited) 13 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said: Surely everything won't explode in the last 2 hours, right? right? *puts away my nitroglycerin* Yes, yes, surely... For now that is all o7 Edited March 13 by Amanuensis Apparently kerosene is not explosive lul 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 10 hours ago, RoyalBeeMage said: what are the pros of voting me instead of faerie? 1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said: Or maybe Royal's village, I mean statistically most players are village, but I want a Royal flip though, sorry Royal I think the question here is: suppose Royal does in fact flip V. Where do we go from here? Which does go back to the voting Royal deal. I see this to some extent as choosing the low profile hypothesis for testing so—if Royal flips V, do we take this as falsification? Do we go to Faerie? If it isn't falsification, is this the value play? Royal, nominally speaking, edges out Faerie for me just a bit with regard to meta comparison (for what little value a single game has here—Faerie feels a tad more different from E!Faerie but...) I don't like the fact that Royal has a simple self-pres tie vote that Royal's not taking. This makes me worried it's not a hit and I'm low-key considering tying with Faerie. Edited to add: Probably ignoring a bunch of things here as I'm rushed for time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 Jebiga then. Faerie Final answer. Gtg. EDIT: Sart just clarified Zephyrs cannot redirect other Zephyrs. No time to deal with the implications but this makes the Night Verdant rush a bit more sus to me. Legit nfc how to process this info gtg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aeternum Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 Now I'm not sure if I should vote because I don't want to tiebreaker the wrong one. Ah I'm indescive. I'm inclined to trust Kas and just go Faerie, but originally I was thinking RBM made more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Unknown Ajah Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 (edited) Hmm, on reconsideration, I'm going to unvote JNV. I'm choosing to trust Kas on this one. To break the tie or not... aren't both of these players new? Or has Faerie done a few games? I'm going to give Royal the benefit of the new player doubt. Sucks to loe to a coinflip your second game. Faerie. My post merged, @Sart Edited March 14 by The Bald Brandon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart Posted March 14 Author Report Share Posted March 14 And that's time. 5 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said: Hmm, on reconsideration, I'm going to unvote JNV. I'm choosing to trust Kas on this one. To break the tie or not... aren't both of these players new? Or has Faerie done a few games? I'm going to give Royal the benefit of the new player doubt. Sucks to loe to a coinflip your second game. Faerie. My post merged, @Sart I see that... Trying to figure out if it's under the buzzer or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart Posted March 14 Author Report Share Posted March 14 The grumblings of the crew were a quiet thing. They had seen several dead bodies, and they felt almost shell shocked. There was some grumbling about B-mage, but it felt uncommitted, halfhearted at best. Kelwin sighed, and with a curse on his lips, accused Morrigan of treachery. The ship wasn't sure what to do. Suddenly, a flash of light burst into the scene. It was Bald Brandon, trying to grab some Sunlight Spores for the night. The flash enraged Morrigan's bird, who went mad with anger. Chicken started clawing at Morrigan's face, shredding it to bits. The sailors, taking this as a sign, followed the bird's lead, and consigned Morrigan to her fate. Sadly, the bird regained its senses, but too late. Its owner was already dead. Faerie Braids was killed. She was a member of the Loyal Crew. The Night will end in 24 hours, at 9 PM EST on March 14th. Vote Count: Spoiler Faerie Braids (3): Amanuensis, Kasimir, The Bald Brandon RoyalBeeMage (2): DrakeMarshall, Faerie Braids Kasimir (1): TheRavenHasLanded Spores Taken: Spoiler The Bald Brandon took a Sunlight Spore Spore Supply: Hide contents 4 Zephyr Spores 3 Sunlight Spores 1 Verdant Spore Player List: Hide contents |TJ| : Grant Loyal Crew Faerie Braids : Morrigan Loyal Crew Aeoryi Loyal Crew @Aeternum @RoyalBeeMage @TheRavenHasLanded : Revir @Amanuensis @JNV @The Bald Brandon @Kasimir : Kelwin @Hairybarron @DrakeMarshall : Rob Hertz 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 11 minutes ago, Sart said: |TJ| : Grant Loyal Crew Faerie Braids : Morrigan Loyal Crew Aeoryi Loyal Crew @Aeternum @RoyalBeeMage @TheRavenHasLanded : Revir @Amanuensis @JNV @The Bald Brandon @Kasimir : Kelwin @Hairybarron @DrakeMarshall : Rob Hertz Looks like Aeternum and RoyalBee are next For now that is all o7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRavenHasLanded Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 17 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Looks like Aeternum and RoyalBee are next For now that is all o7 Is this the PoE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 Just now, TheRavenHasLanded said: Is this the PoE Nah just a descending order list For now that is all o7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRavenHasLanded Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 1 minute ago, Amanuensis said: Nah just a descending order list For now that is all o7 Ah, fair enough. Yo @DrakeMarshall I’m curious, if you were elim, what would you do here? Also, I’m a gonna take the verdant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 ffs Alright. Let's sub this back into D1. This is raw. Quote Aeoryi (5): TheRavenHasLanded, Kasimir, TJ, Royal Bee Mage, The Bald Brandon TJ (2): DrakeMarshall, Aeternum Royal Bee Mage (1): Aeoryi The Bald Brandon (1): Hairybarron No Vote (3): Aman, Faerie, JNV This is with my credences substituted in: Quote Aeoryi (5): TheRavenHasLanded, Kasimir, TJ, Royal Bee Mage???, The Bald Brandon TJ (2): DrakeMarshall, Aeternum Royal Bee Mage (1): Aeoryi The Bald Brandon (1): Hairybarron No Vote (3): Aman, Faerie, JNV Unsure what I currently believe about Aman and TBB at this juncture. (For TBB, I actually want to systematically recheck against TBB's E games when I have the time, which won't be significantly until this weekend. Current V lean on TBB is on the basis of TBB being a bit ) Flagging that Raven and Hairy were barely present N1, so they could be Evil (sightly doubt for Raven, V!Raven so far has had this tendency to make unsystematic pushes based on personal desires) but it's irrelevant for the moment if we're doing a pool search. D1 still had low tempo, and we know the main two trains were Village. I still think this implies Elim complacency but the alternative is that this implies that the Elims were simply low activity. I currently believe the No Vote tier is more Village-dominated, so I'm slightly forced to examine the votes for where Elims are hiding. The main candidates here (pretty much more or less entailed I think) - TBB - I feel TBB's voting pattern is a bit too aggressive for E!TBB but also don't think it's impossible and need the bandwidth. If someone else wants to get on it for me, I'd like if if you can check the LG run by Szeth, in particular, along with QF64. Also potentially QF66 (I think that's the one I ran.) [Note: If TBB is Evil, it is very unlikely Royal is Evil. Do not believe TBB generally saves teammates - he's a bit more of an ignorer/softbusser, cf. the JNV game he referenced.] Raven - Could not have put in NK but vote parked on Aeo, which would fit the complacency profile. Do not really think Raven is Evil but this is a weak read on the basis of Raven's pushes. Aet - Personally, I slightly believe/sense that Aet is making a FNG play and I think Aet is following more than they'd let on, but am not strongly convinced of this. Aet's TJ park is a good place for an Elim to be. Royal - Honestly, Royal is that hard-to-deal with shade of new that looks Evil enough to be Evil or LHF, and I respect if people just want to flip them to know for sure because we don't want to repeat this ad infinitum. This is why I was fine with Royal being in the tie. There's something to be said for getting the ? out of your system. The main thing that swayed me enough to be cool tying Royal with Faerie was the sense that E!Royal should've just voted. Because, you know, why not. Easy enough for Royal to have at least forced a tie here, and self-pres always looks less sus - I think Royal's teammates should've reasonably yelled at him to self-pres. @Aeternum Did you grab a spore last Night/attempt to? Let's top it up with last Day's results: 1 hour ago, Sart said: Faerie Braids (3): Amanuensis, Kasimir, The Bald Brandon RoyalBeeMage (2): DrakeMarshall, Faerie Braids Kasimir (1): TheRavenHasLanded No Vote (4): Aet, Hairy, Royal, JNV Extremely high disengagement here. Royal was in the lead and then vanished without signing back in. Aet was fine with a Faerie/RBM tie, as was presumably Raven. Credenced: 1 hour ago, Sart said: Faerie Braids (3): Amanuensis, Kasimir, The Bald Brandon RoyalBeeMage (2): DrakeMarshall, Faerie Braids Kasimir (1): TheRavenHasLanded No Vote (4): Aet, Hairy, Royal, JNV @Sart When will Hairy die or be PHed, by your current count? @DrakeMarshall Want your take on this. I agree wrt the proactive defense issue but I'm not sold about the general apathy level/lack of reactive defense issue. The cycle felt very low tempo as well and I don't know if this means no hit, or in general this is everyone's energy level for this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 (edited) 1 hour ago, TheRavenHasLanded said: Ah, fair enough. Yo @DrakeMarshall I’m curious, if you were elim, what would you do here? I would do what I want cuz a pirate is free. I would stun them with immense panache. I would kill everyone. This is the way. Tomorrow is the day to do or die (3v5), if we make the very reasonable assumption that there are 3 Deadrunners. I'd consider cooking up some kind of gambit to frame someone and secure a misexecution tomorrow, except I'm pretty sure there are people alive who should expect it of me. Anyways, if I were a Deadrunner, then I'd feel my team would be doing rather well at the moment, because I don't appear to be suspected by many, and the late vote swing onto a villager just gave me a terribly convenient reason to push Royal tomorrow (who is presumably an innocent villager in an evil!Drake world, because otherwise why would I have tried to get them executed?). Of course, I'm not a Deadrunner, just a normal pirate, yarr. What an interesting hypothetical! 1 hour ago, Amanuensis said: Looks like Aeternum and RoyalBee are next For now that is all o7 I was gonna make this joke 46 minutes ago, Kasimir said: @DrakeMarshall Want your take on this. I agree wrt the proactive defense issue but I'm not sold about the general apathy level/lack of reactive defense issue. The cycle felt very low tempo as well and I don't know if this means no hit, or in general this is everyone's energy level for this game. I'm inclined towards the latter being the case, but that isn't necessarily exclusive with it also being the former. Edited March 14 by DrakeMarshall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyalBeeMage Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 5 hours ago, Kasimir said: Royal - Honestly, Royal is that hard-to-deal with shade of new that looks Evil enough to be Evil or LHF, and I respect if people just want to flip them to know for sure because we don't want to repeat this ad infinitum. This is why I was fine with Royal being in the tie. There's something to be said for getting the ? out of your system. The main thing that swayed me enough to be cool tying Royal with Faerie was the sense that E!Royal should've just voted. Because, you know, why not. Easy enough for Royal to have at least forced a tie here, and self-pres always looks less sus - I think Royal's teammates should've reasonably yelled at him to self-pres. thats what i would have done if i didn't have to worry about a day worth of tests and exsams. also different time zone. i had to sleep. 6 hours ago, Amanuensis said: Looks like Aeternum and RoyalBee are next For now that is all o7 i mean during d2 i almost was gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 1 hour ago, RoyalBeeMage said: thats what i would have done if i didn't have to worry about a day worth of tests and exsams. also different time zone. i had to sleep. You made a comment asking about the vote on you pretty late into the cycle - could've easily voted just about anyone else to save yourself at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyalBeeMage Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: You made a comment asking about the vote on you pretty late into the cycle - could've easily voted just about anyone else to save yourself at that point. that is a very fair point. ok so what i meant is it is what i would have done had i thought about it sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 10 minutes ago, RoyalBeeMage said: that is a very fair point. ok so what i meant is it is what i would have done had i thought about it sooner. Yeah. Which is what made me not wanna vote you since I feel like E!you would've been more on top of that. Even if you forgot, your team should have remembered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyalBeeMage Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 (edited) 2 hours ago, Kasimir said: Yeah. Which is what made me not wanna vote you since I feel like E!you would've been more on top of that. Even if you forgot, your team should have remembered. i think in a few games in the future i will nail how to properly play. edit: about to head to sleep now and might miss the last few hours of the night. should be able to take part in the last 2 hours of it though with a few hours in between when i can start discussing over on day 3 Edited March 14 by RoyalBeeMage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aeternum Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: Aet - Personally, I slightly believe/sense that Aet is making a FNG play and I think Aet is following more than they'd let on, but am not strongly convinced of this. Aet's TJ park is a good place for an Elim to be. Oh definitely not haha. I understand about half of what everyone says when there's not tons of abbreviations involved (while we're here, what does FNG mean? And the flipping thing is getting me a bit confused if anyone would care to explain it). My TJ vote was also out of thinking I need to vote every day, so I just kinda picked whatever was the most recent vote and went with it. I think Drake said TJ, then a bunch of posts later that weren't votes, I also said TJ. 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: @Aeternum Did you grab a spore last Night/attempt to Yeah I went for a zephyr last night after everyone was asking why I didn't go for a spore on the first day, but I'm not sure what to do with it. The spores are kind of overwhelming for me. Which sounds bad, but this is my first game so it's hard enough to try to keep up with everyone, not to mention the spores and all the possibilities with them. 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: Aet was fine with a Faerie/RBM tie, as was presumably Raven "Fine" more like "if I tip the vote and it's wrong, they're gonna kill me tomorrow". If it all hadn't happened so late, I might've picked a side, but that didn't happen. 2 hours ago, Amanuensis said: Looks like Aeternum and RoyalBee are next For now that is all o7 If I say please don't, will you reconsider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 (edited) Okay so I started the game with Crimson. Already told everyone in PMs and now have become convinced we're not all village, so I figured I might as well announce it, since I'm still debating who to shoot and value democratic input. Thoughts? (Rn my order is on TBB, but am open to changing it) For now that is all o7 Edited March 14 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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