Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Araris Valerian]

Sorry for my absence during the day, I’m at a conference right now and am pretty busy. I won’t really be more available for a while but I’ll try at least to vote tomorrow.

And yeah, I claimed Bones to Kas after he got cleared. Didn’t want to mention it but that was part of my motivation for going after Mat D2.

[Mat]

Hmm. I think he'd be the elim SE, then. Because last game's distro had a village SE, and a village SB. From all of your PoV, the elim SE isn't me because as Kas mentioned earlier in the game, I would have just claimed SE as opposed to SB-- that would have saved Aman. From my PoV I know it's not me, so :P.

So [Araris, JNV/Illwei] with the outside chance of Alv? I guess Araris could just be vanilla evil and claiming that as a way to make people not want to exe him / incriminate those with extra lives and such.

[---]

I feel like there was a push against araris from something on d3? I forget what it eas about though 

[The Unknown Ajah]

I kinda want to go after Illwei, I feel like they should have done more by now, but I don’t really have any concrete thoughts right now. Kinda thinking I should revisit Mat. He got cleared, but it was the kinda thing an elim could do when wanting to not backtrack or whatever. 

I don't really know, my thoughts are having trouble forming right now.

[Alvron]

15 hours ago, DeTess said:

@Alvronthat's your vote on Araris I assume?

Assumptions can be dangerous.  But in this case, also correct.

5 hours ago, DeTess said:

Okay, so I wan to quickly go over the protective items that have been claimed or revealed.

Pallid Mask: DeTess, TJ, Alpha
Silver bones: Araris, Mat, Kas (shade expert)
Pendant: Ash

That's a lot of protective power, and I highly doubt it was all in the hands of the village. In particular, I think it is likely that one of Araris and Mat is evil, as I don't see the village having three sets of silver bones.

Araris is evil. 
Mat was exed D1 with Aman voting for them. Since Mat had Silver Bones, I could easily see Aman happy to let the tie go through seeing as it would buy Village cred for at least one cycle.  And he couldn't know that Kas secretly changed his vote.
But Araris.  Just evil. 

[Steeldancer]

Hm well that doesn't look good. That's what I get for relying on others analysis I guess. 

[Elandera]

This turn is closed!

[Elandera]

Threnody thrives in the darkness. The shades, the forest, the ancients. We are meant to stay in the darkness.

---

|TJ| has been killed! He was a Homesteader!

Wrath of Shades Counter: 15%

Message from the Writers:

Spoiler

こんにちは皆さん、
事態はちょっと怖いですね。しかし希望を失わない。みんなで力を合わせれば乗り越えられる！

This turn will end Thursday, May 11 at 8:30 p.m. PDT / Friday, May 12 at 1:30 p.m. AEST.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @The Known Novel - Crazy Hary
2. Archer - Cultist 
3. @Matrim's Dice - Enatnom
4. @Araris Valerian - Read My Role
5. Telrao / @Illwei - Ealmin
6. Kasimir - Homesteader Shade Expert
7. The Last Fae - Homesteader Thief
8. Amanuensis - Cultist with Iron Will
9. Sart - Homesteader Writer
10. @TheAlpha929 - Roosevelt
11. Ashbringer - Homesteader
12. |TJ| - Homesteader
13. @DeTess
14. JNV / @Walin - Jen
15. @Steeldancer - Lord Momo of the Momo Dynasty
16. @Alvron - Navor
17. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Surnia

Rule Clarifications:

Spoiler

1. Wrath of Shades can only kill the person who sent in the action that triggered it. If a Cultist and a Crossbow user both kill in the same night, they are both rolled at the same percentage and could both be killed.
2. If a Cultist and Crossbow user are the only ones alive at a night turn, both take action to kill the other, and no other actions are involved (such as the Pallid Mask), the game will end on a tie.
3. Pallid Mask and Elder Sign Pendant are both passive items.
4. You cannot use Voice in the Crowd to change a vote to a no vote.
5. Pallid masks do not stop such actions as opening PMs or passing items as they are not "actions taken against" a player, as in not aggressive actions.
6. Any form of protection or roleblock that stops an attack, no matter where in the OoA, will cause Broken Survivors unless specifically stated otherwise. 
7. You will always be informed if you lose an ability, role, or item. 
8. Iron Will prevents Broken Survivors as it is not their own action that caused it. I believe in this ruleset, the only form of insanity it does not protect against is using the spell book. Previous iterations had more actions with insanity consequences.
9. The chance of a Shade attack is never zero.
10. Pallid Masks do not stop from being voted on via Voice in the Crowd.
11. Those who kill another player have a 5% chance of their precautions failing, thus they will be attacked by the shades and killed. This does not include the execution. Every time a player kills another player the chances of enraging the Shades increases by 5%. Once someone dies to the Shades, the percentage resets.

@Walin has replaced JNV (actually replaced this time yes I verified knowledge beforehand)!

[Elandera]

As a side note, I'll be changing the rollover time to 9:30 starting at the next turn for a few turns. My sister is getting married this weekend and we are doing a lot of prep work (including me altering the dress). 

[Mat]

Hi Walin! :D.

Actually I kinda want to just vote Araris but this is mech pool and funnier

[Steeldancer]

Huh. Interesting.

Illwei took no action last turn. 

[Walin]

Happy to be here! I'm going to be catching up throughout the next 24 hours, and then will post a little after that.

[DeTess]

Okay, surprised I'm still alive. I'm not opposed to a JNV/Walin execution, but I want to look at other options as well, those options being Araris, Mat and alpha. Unfortunately, I'm not doing super well today, so any analysis will likely have to wait until tomorrow.

@Alvronwhy did you say that Araris was guaranteed to be evil last turn?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I roleblocked Araris, so he didn't submit the kill. JNV probably didn't either since they were replaced.

[DeTess]

59 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I roleblocked Araris, so he didn't submit the kill. JNV probably didn't either since they were replaced.

Interesting. That would mean a JNV/walin + Araris team doesn't work unless there's another elim or TJ died to a crossbow or something.

And with Mat going after JNV/walin, they probably aren't on the same team either.

Add to that that with TJ flipping village Alvron can't be the one that attacked me.

So let's see if my tired head can draw some conclusions here.

knowns & reasonable assumptions:

• at least 1 of JNV/Wallin, Illwei or Mat is evil
• at least 1 of mat and Araris is evil
• at most 1 of JNV/Walin and Araris is evil
• at most 1 of JNV/walin and Mat is evil

Therefore:

• If araris is evil, Illwei has to be evil.
• If Illwei is not evil, Mat has to be evil.
• JNV/wallin can't be evil.

The above is assuming a 4-player elim team and that the kill on TJ was done by the elims. If it was a crossbow shot instead, claiming that would be pretty important to solve the game.

[Araris Valerian]

4 hours ago, DeTess said:

If araris is evil, Illwei has to be evil.

This is assuming that Mat and I aren’t both evil, I presume? Because technically Mat could be the elim from the N3 POE, and then the elims could just have 2 pairs of SB.

I guess I should mention that the only reason anyone knows I have SB is that I claimed to Kas without being prompted. 

The problem with e!Mat is that his D1 is weird. Archer was tunneling on Mat the entire day for a really bad reason (“annoyance” that was not at all evident in Mat’s posts). And then Mat placed the third vote on Archer. He did leave open the option of switching onto DeTess or Ash, both of whom seem pretty clear right now. But then he doesn’t switch to DeTess when given the opportunity. However, he wouldn’t need to since the public VC had DeTess at 4 and why would a villager use Voice?

Another point against Mat is that he tried to claim being in a tunnel, which, as I stated earlier, isn’t really a valid statement so early in the game. I am very aware of Mat’s tunnels and doing a D1 reread didn’t give me any impression that was what was going on.

So I guess what I’m saying is I see a world where Mat is elim and his D1 works in that context, but it doesn’t seem like e!Mat is the best explanation for all that. However, the SB thing seems fairly condemning from my perspective, so I’m voting Mat.

 

[The Unknown Ajah]

I think I'll follow general opinions and go after Mat. I read his d1 pretty elimmy anyways unlike everyone else.

[Mat]

1 minute ago, The Known Novel said:

I think I'll follow general opinions and go after Mat. I read his d1 pretty elimmy anyways unlike everyone else.

My D1 I refused to move off of Archer, and got heavily pushed by both Aman and Archer. I've already explained why I said my Archer read was a tunnel. I can't really do anything about Araris voting me in spite of all that because he's voting me purely for mech reasons. Why are we sure JNV isn't evil? That would make the N3 killer Illwei.

[Araris Valerian]

51 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I can't really do anything about Araris voting me in spite of all that because he's voting me purely for mech reasons.

That’s a dishonest representation of my post. Mech is strongly influencing my vote, but your interactions with Archer are kinda weird. Both his tunnel on you, and your claimed tunnel on him seem fabricated. It’s clear from Aman’s play that the elim team had strong distancing on their mind.

I also feel like v!you should want to resolve me as soon as possible, since from your perspective it doesn’t make sense for me to be village, and as long as I’m alive people would doubt you for mech reasons.

[DeTess]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

This is assuming that Mat and I aren’t both evil, I presume? Because technically Mat could be the elim from the N3 POE, and then the elims could just have 2 pairs of SB.

Yeah, that is assuming you aren't both evil which is not impossible I suppose. And the elims having two pairs of silver bones is not impossible.

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

That’s a dishonest representation of my post. Mech is strongly influencing my vote, but your interactions with Archer are kinda weird. Both his tunnel on you, and your claimed tunnel on him seem fabricated. It’s clear from Aman’s play that the elim team had strong distancing on their mind.

I also feel like v!you should want to resolve me as soon as possible, since from your perspective it doesn’t make sense for me to be village, and as long as I’m alive people would doubt you for mech reasons.

I don’t really think it is. You started with ‘the problems with e!Mat are’ and then highlighted my interactions with Archer, implying that we don’t look e/e. You mentioned the tunnel thing, but again, I’ve explained myself multiple times there. It didn’t look like a tunnel to you because it was internal and I was actively trying to suppress it.

What about Aman’s play makes that clear? I don’t recall him ever pushing Archer very hard.

And yeah, mostly am waiting for an answer on why DeTess cleared JNV and I want to clear out the mech pool as there’s a guaranteed elim there (whereas you’re less guaranteed) but resolving you would be fine with me. Exeing someone with an extra life would be annoying but I suppose you don’t necessarily have to have that.

[DeTess]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why are we sure JNV isn't evil? That would make the N3 killer Illwei.

JNV just got replaced for inactivity so it's highly unlikely they submitted an action this night, which means that, assuming 2 elims remaining, they can't be teamed with Araris (as Araris was roleblocked), and you going after them means I don't think they can be teamed with you either. And running wit the assumption that one of Mat or Araris is evil, JNV not being teamed up with either of you means they must be village.

But I also just reread and apparently @Steeldancerused glowsap to track illwei and they didn't do anything this night. In that case illwei and araris can't be the last two elims either, which means one of the following must be true:

• There are three elims left (unlikely but not impossible imo)
• TJ was hit by a village crossbow (seriously, if this happened, please claim)
• Araris and Mat are both village (unlikely I think, as it means there is a lot of village protective power)
• Mat is an elim.

[Araris Valerian]

24 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don’t really think it is. You started with ‘the problems with e!Mat are’ and then highlighted my interactions with Archer, implying that we don’t look e/e. You mentioned the tunnel thing, but again, I’ve explained myself multiple times there. It didn’t look like a tunnel to you because it was internal and I was actively trying to suppress it.

What about Aman’s play makes that clear? I don’t recall him ever pushing Archer very hard.

The interactions with Archer aren’t e/e at face value, but Archer’s push for you kinda looks like it was designed to fall apart. He pointed at you being annoyed when it’s clear you weren’t, and then uses that as an excuse to unvote you later.

Pointing out your own internal tunnel seems like a ploy for e!you to go for village credit.

On reread, maybe I was conflating Aman and Kas? Not sure. Aman did have semi-consistent suspicion of Archer and ended with Archer near the bottom of his reads list.

[Mat]

39 minutes ago, DeTess said:

But I also just reread and apparently @Steeldancerused glowsap to track illwei and they didn't do anything this night. In that case illwei and araris can't be the last two elims either, which means one of the following must be true:

Would e!Illwei with a palid mask have come back with the same result? 

39 minutes ago, DeTess said:

• There are three elims left (unlikely but not impossible imo)

Actually, considering the amount of protection we've seen, I could totally buy that. 2 pendants, 2 masks, 2 sets of silver bones, Kas' protection, and any items Fae could have found is... a lot. Even with e!SE!Araris.

34 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

The interactions with Archer aren’t e/e at face value, but Archer’s push for you kinda looks like it was designed to fall apart. He pointed at you being annoyed when it’s clear you weren’t, and then uses that as an excuse to unvote you later.

It fell apart, yeah, when I told him how bad it was :P. A weak push doesn't mean it's e/e, just that it was a weak push. I guess your point is that it does >>

34 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Pointing out your own internal tunnel seems like a ploy for e!you to go for village credit.

Or maybe it's just me being more aware of my meta after the last game. This, like above, isn't something that's defendable because my defense is 'uh, no' lol

34 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Aman did have semi-consistent suspicion of Archer and ended with Archer near the bottom of his reads list.

That's like, super surface level distancing though. He wanted me dead :P.

Araris

Edited May 10, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

22 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Would e!Illwei with a palid mask have come back with the same result? 

Steel would have learned that his action failed at the beginning of the night turn had this been true. 5 elims still requires someone to put in the kill other than Araris or Illwei or JNV (although since JNV posted D5, they're being replaced by request instead of inactivity and thus could have submitted the kill as their final act.)