Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Kasimir]

Just now, The Last Fæ said:

Oh, okay. Illwei

I mean, it's also Night so not like you can vote right now

Getting ahead of everyone to drop this meme if at least one of <JNV, Araris, TJ> is also Evil alongside Aman:

Spoiler

 

[Tea Leaf]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I mean, it's also Night so not like you can vote right now

 

That can't stop me!

[Mat]

38 minutes ago, The Last Fæ said:

That can't stop me!

Technically, it can  

[Kasimir]

Insofar as we're hypothesising a four-member team, Fae can be an odd fit, depending on whether you think a Writer is also Evil.

Five-member team isn't impossible at this juncture though, just #feelsweird.

[Tea Leaf]

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Insofar as we're hypothesising a four-member team, Fae can be an odd fit, depending on whether you think a Writer is also Evil.

Five-member team isn't impossible at this juncture though, just #feelsweird.

Wait, does that make me a cultist? If so: I AM STICK! Otherwise disregard the previous statement.

Edited May 3, 2023 by The Last Fæ

[Kasimir]

Just now, The Last Fæ said:

Wait, does that makes me a cultist? If so: I AM STICK! Otherwise disregard the previous statement.

?

I'm saying that as long as we're looking at four-member team worlds, this is what we know so far:

Aman: Cultist with Iron Will and Silver Dust (claimed by Araris)
Archer: Cultist with Spellbook (claimed by me)
C#3: Cultist Shade Expert
C#4: ???

We also know that there's a Cultist Shade Expert, but as Shade Experts have Silver Bones, this seems a bit strong to pre-emptively suppose a team of five world without stronger Village padding. So suppose for now a team of four world.

If we think any of the non-Sart Writers are Evil, we are pretty much requiring C#4 to be a Writer. But that leaves very little room for you to be Evil as well.

I don't think this is confirmed but it is a thought I've been having while trying to solidify my thoughts on team composition. Obviously I do think a Thief is a decent fit on the team, but I question if it fits that well with what we know/might currently suppose, at the very least.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

hehe

only three elims left! Or two! Idk

[Tea Leaf]

9 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

hehe

only three elims left! Or two! Idk

Too few to weave an effective strategy (I hope).

[Ashbringer]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add 2:

<TKN, Mat, Araris, Eiwlil, Kas, Fae, Alpha, Ash, TJ, DeTess, JNV, Steel, Alv, Devo>

Of this list:

Strike out Devo for the roleblock. Strike out myself for the Lurch. Steel wasn't remotely online I think, so strike him out for now.

<TKN, Mat, Araris, Eiwlil, Kas, Fae, Alpha, Ash, TJ, DeTess, JNV, Steel, Alv, Devo>

Suppose we strike out TKN for seeming Village by that denunciation of Archer. Suppose as well we kick Mat out for being one Archer CW and who Aman broke the tie on after Rollovet. Suppose we also strike out DeTess for being the other Archer CW.

Suppose we strike out TJ for claiming to have wanted to pass a Pallid Mask - no way of confirming the action was really 'Pass Mask' rather than 'send in kill' but he has an alibi, which we don't really necessarily have for the rest of the list.

This gives us a pool of:

<TKN, Mat, Araris, Eiwlil, Kas, Fae, Alpha, Ash, TJ, DeTess, JNV, Steel, Alv, Devo>

<Araris, Eiwlil, Fae, Alpha, Ash, JNV, Alv> - this is the cleaned up version. Two of whom are likely to have put in the kill and the protect respectively.

This... doesn't make sense.

What Lurch?

Wouldn't E!Mat be a better exe for the elims than E!Archer because of Silver Bones? Same with a potential E!SE!DeTess, but more so Mat?

Don't we know from Devo that her roleblock failed but can be used next turn, meaning she hit a Pallid Mask? And don't we know from you that you took an NK with Silver Bones?

[Elandera]

The vote count issues is a result of brain fog. I hadn't marked Archer as insane in the right part of the sheet, so I didn't register during the count that it shouldn't have applied. I'll fix it now.

[Kasimir]

32 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

What Lurch?

I have claimed Shade Expert in the Day thread and that I used a Lurch on a player I'm refusing to name other than acknowledging that it was neither me nor Devo last Night. Because there's a limit of one action per Turn, having Lurched, I cannot have put in any other action. We can suppose that I'm lying about the Lurch, but if we take it as true at face value, I can't have put in another action.

32 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Wouldn't E!Mat be a better exe for the elims than E!Archer because of Silver Bones? Same with a potential E!SE!DeTess, but more so Mat?

Yes, but Archer chose to CW on DeTess rather than Mat, and the VitC vote on Mat came from me. Unless you believe that both Mat and DeTess are simultaneously Evil, the triangle doesn't fully make sense because Mat self-pressed on Archer as well and wasn't willing to switch. We certainly can't prove DeTess isn't a SE, but by that same token, you look objectively worse than DeTess, having joined Alpha in equally unexplained last minute votes on DeTess, which take Archer out of danger. And we also cannot prove you aren't an SE.

32 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Don't we know from Devo that her roleblock failed but can be used next turn, meaning she hit a Pallid Mask? And don't we know from you that you took an NK with Silver Bones?

Pallid Masks are passive. The question here is not whether TJ had a Pallid Mask at all but whether he had an action that would preclude him from having sent in a Shade Expert protect, or from having put in the kill. I fail to see where you're coming from.

Edited to add:

Worth highlighting as well that a world in which the E!SE is DeTess, while not impossible, means there are four Silver Bones and two Pallid Masks in this game, on top of one or two other points of distro weirdness depending on what you think TJ's and Alpha's roles are.

E!SE Mat world is the most parsimonious but does mean we have Archer CWing deliberately on DeTess over Mat, and E!Mat CWing on Archer over DeTess when he should have been willing to CW on DeTess instead of exposing Archer that way.

Edited May 3, 2023 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Pallid Masks are passive. The question here is not whether TJ had a Pallid Mask at all but whether he had an action that would preclude him from having sent in a Shade Expert protect, or from having put in the kill. I fail to see where you're coming from.

Ah, I misunderstood the Pallid Mask action. Still, we don't have any evidence of TJ actually putting in an action one way or another, and he'd be more forced to claim something because he'd know his Pallid Mask was used up.

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I have claimed Shade Expert in the Day thread and that I used a Lurch on a player I'm refusing to name other than acknowledging that it was neither me nor Devo last Night. Because there's a limit of one action per Turn, having Lurched, I cannot have put in any other action. We can suppose that I'm lying about the Lurch, but if we take it as true at face value, I can't have put in another action.

But we have no evidence of that Lurch existing, unless the player you're not naming happens to be Archer. We also don't really have evidence of you taking a second NK because of how Silver Bones work. We really don't have anything indicating you're a Shade Expert at all, save that you've claimed and claiming that tends to be a bad idea if you don't have the protections to back it up.

Perhaps I'm just being paranoid. That's sort of my job. These Forests do that to a soul. But you're role-clearing yourself when your role hasn't visibly been demonstrated, and that makes me nervous.

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Yes, but Archer chose to CW on DeTess rather than Mat, and the VitC vote on Mat came from me. Unless you believe that both Mat and DeTess are simultaneously Evil, the triangle doesn't fully make sense because Mat self-pressed on Archer as well and wasn't willing to switch. We certainly can't prove DeTess isn't a SE, but by that same token, you look objectively worse than DeTess, having joined Alpha in equally unexplained last minute votes on DeTess, which take Archer out of danger. And we also cannot prove you aren't an SE.

I've done nothing to prove myself, as what I can do is limited aside from voting on those I don't trust. And I have little reason to trust Mat, or DeTess, or anyone besides Devotary at this juncture. Not even TKN. Not even you. Not even myself, not really.

I don't think DeTess is likely the ESE, based on those votes. But in the world where I live, a world where I can trust in my own intentions if not myself, the Elims wouldn't expect DeTess to stick. Do you trust me?

We lack information from those who live. Perhaps nothing can be proven. Except that Mat still lives when that capability is known to have been on the SE. Does Devo trust me?

And that I am paranoid. 

And we need to be quiet. quiet. quiet.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

1 hour ago, The Last Fæ said:

Too few to weave an effective strategy (I hope).

Yeah to be honest if I was an elim I’d be throwing my hands up and giving. Which is what y’all should do. I’m too good!

[Kasimir]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

Ah, I misunderstood the Pallid Mask action. Still, we don't have any evidence of TJ actually putting in an action one way or another, and he'd be more forced to claim something because he'd know his Pallid Mask was used up.

Sure, we certainly don't apart from TJ's word. But that's one level of evidence better than we have for you or for say, Alv, and I think that's worth reflecting as well because there's a difference between a player who is forthcoming with some information and a player who just isn't at all.

But we have no evidence of that Lurch existing, unless the player you're not naming happens to be Archer. We also don't really have evidence of you taking a second NK because of how Silver Bones work. We really don't have anything indicating you're a Shade Expert at all, save that you've claimed and claiming that tends to be a bad idea if you don't have the protections to back it up.

I mean, you're certainly free to try your luck with a crossbow tonight. If you die to me, it'd decisively confirm whether or not you are the E!SE No confirmation of who I'm Lurching or if I am as I've stated I'm using a spellbook but for me to be lying requires the actual V!SE to have heard two claims and to have said nothing despite three V!SEs beggaring belief. It also requires the actual survivors of the Elim kills to say nothing or for there to be two kills and for me to agree to bus two members of my team in a row alongside withholding the kill twice.

But yeah, I'm not really sure there's much evidence here to be honest.  You're right. So besides trying to FUD, do you have a route forwards?Because a lot of this post is you justifying FUD with paranoia but not wanting to help narrow down a PoE.

Perhaps I'm just being paranoid. That's sort of my job. These Forests do that to a soul. But you're role-clearing yourself when your role hasn't visibly been demonstrated, and that makes me nervous.

If you think this is roleclearing, you're not even remotely paying attention to the past two days. My role wouldn't even have come up if Archer hadn't claimed it, and the only reason I'm mentioning it is that it's relevant to culling a PoE on the basis we know by mech that two Elim actions were sent in last Night. Again,  if you are so invested in keeping PoE wide open, then what is your PoE and where do you want to go from here?

I've done nothing to prove myself, as what I can do is limited aside from voting on those I don't trust. And I have little reason to trust Mat, or DeTess, or anyone besides Devotary at this juncture. Not even TKN. Not even you. Not even myself, not really.

So basically your PoE is everyone, including yourself,  because anything else is clearing. Got it.

I don't think DeTess is likely the ESE, based on those votes. But in the world where I live, a world where I can trust in my own intentions if not myself, the Elims wouldn't expect DeTess to stick. Do you trust me?

We lack information from those who live. Perhaps nothing can be proven. Except that Mat still lives when that capability is known to have been on the SE. Does Devo trust me?

And that I am paranoid. 

And we need to be quiet. quiet. quiet.

 

[|TJ|]

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Ah, I misunderstood the Pallid Mask action. Still, we don't have any evidence of TJ actually putting in an action one way or another, and he'd be more forced to claim something because he'd know his Pallid Mask was used up.

Elandera did not say it was used up, she said I no longer had the Mask, the way it was worded made me think of Theft :P. 

It's... unique to witness the paranoia from Ash, haven't seen this before.

8 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

But we have no evidence of that Lurch existing, unless the player you're not naming happens to be Archer. We also don't really have evidence of you taking a second NK because of how Silver Bones work. We really don't have anything indicating you're a Shade Expert at all, save that you've claimed and claiming that tends to be a bad idea if you don't have the protections to back it up.

In Kas' defence, he was the N1 elim kill. And the lack of elim kill on N2 and no counter claim to someone else surviving means likely hit Kas again. 

Slowly starting my re-read - 

Notice how Alpha did not ask explanation or any sort of justification from Aman, but does so with Kas when they both voted on Alpha together. 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

25 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Elandera did not say it was used up, she said I no longer had the Mask, the way it was worded made me think of Theft :P. 

It's... unique to witness the paranoia from Ash, haven't seen this before.

In Kas' defence, he was the N1 elim kill. And the lack of elim kill on N2 and no counter claim to someone else surviving means likely hit Kas again. 

Slowly starting my re-read - 

Notice how Alpha did not ask explanation or any sort of justification from Aman, but does so with Kas when they both voted on Alpha together. 

that was because it felt like Kas was jumping on an idea too fast. I was scared because all of a sudden there were a bunch of votes on me

[Ashbringer]

Oh that's going to be fun to multiquote

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Sure, we certainly don't apart from TJ's word. But that's one level of evidence better than we have for you or for say, Alv, and I think that's worth reflecting as well because there's a difference between a player who is forthcoming with some information and a player who just isn't at all.

I guess? To me it would just be weird to go "Hey all, just so you know, I didn't put in the Elim Kill but I have nothing to prove that's the case" unprompted. If you have proof, fine, but not everyone does. I certainly don't.

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I mean, you're certainly free to try your luck with a crossbow tonight. If you die to me, it'd decisively confirm whether or not you are the E!SE No confirmation of who I'm Lurching or if I am as I've stated I'm using a spellbook but for me to be lying requires the actual V!SE to have heard two claims and to have said nothing despite three V!SEs beggaring belief. It also requires the actual survivors of the Elim kills to say nothing or for there to be two kills and for me to agree to bus two members of my team in a row alongside withholding the kill twice.

But yeah, I'm not really sure there's much evidence here to be honest.  You're right. So besides trying to FUD, do you have a route forwards?Because a lot of this post is you justifying FUD with paranoia but not wanting to help narrow down a PoE.

I suppose it would 

You're assuming there is a V!SE at all. There probably is, but I'm trying not to assume anything at the moment. Maybe that's FUD or maybe that's just me. But I also wouldn't put it past you and Aman working together to get yourself into a deepwolf position. 

I'm not saying it's likely, I'm saying it's possible, because this entire situation doesn't make sense, and generally people discount E!Kas ideas entirely. I'm trying to not do that. ( @|TJ|, that sort of is in response to your points as well. I have done this before, I just usually talk myself out of it, but the point is that I try and talk myself out of it rather than assuming and going on from there.)

23 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If you think this is roleclearing, you're not even remotely paying attention to the past two days. My role wouldn't even have come up if Archer hadn't claimed it, and the only reason I'm mentioning it is that it's relevant to culling a PoE on the basis we know by mech that two Elim actions were sent in last Night. Again,  if you are so invested in keeping PoE wide open, then what is your PoE and where do you want to go from here?

So basically your PoE is everyone, including yourself,  because anything else is clearing. Got it.

TBH, I was sus enough of Archer from claiming self-protecting using SE fearing an Elim kill when the actual threat came from Sart's Crossbow. Your claim and TKN's claim just cemented things (and again, while I think it's unlikely, I could see E!TKN doing that to gain some good reads off of Archer's death).

Right now my personal PoE is Biology, then Literature, then Poetry... but gamewise I want to look at D1 myself a bit. Alpha, Mat, and DeTess specifically, if only to solve my own paranoia. But as you've noted, there's not much distinguishing me and Alpha. Perhaps I should work to solve that first.

Do I want to exe Kas or TKN? No. Do I want to trust them blindly? Also no. Who do I want to exe beyond that... I'd have to look or think. PoE, I think Mat for the Bones connection. But a silent SE is more dangerous. So thinking is better than looking.

And me saying that, out loud, helps me actually do it I guess. I don't like playing Dingo, not this wishy-washy way I end up into. So yes, if I don't start looking for things that's indicative of something. If only my inability to contribute.

TL:DR, avoiding this

Spoiler

 

[Araris Valerian]

24 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

You're assuming there is a V!SE at all. There probably is, but I'm trying not to assume anything at the moment. Maybe that's FUD or maybe that's just me. But I also wouldn't put it past you and Aman working together to get yourself into a deepwolf position. 

Who is this person named Kas that you think would want to deepwolf? I'm not sure I've ever met that player before.

[---]

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

The reason it can't be a pallid mask is this rule clarification from the write-up claris.

Ok I think i understand- the pallid mask nulls actions instead of having them still go through? @Elandera

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Don't understand the late exchange between @Matrim's Dice and @Illwei. Train size + the fact he was scanned doing nothing, against his claims, had made some dubious claims anyway, etc just made this a hard train to defend. Not sure why lack of resistance indicative of anything here - Elims were not going to win this one in most realistic worlds.

Reminder that I haven't played here in a while and if this was MU there would have likely been more resistance earlier on with people trying to spin it onto TKN or possibly call Archer and TKN e/e

Anyways my few reads are still holding up and Ash has some elim cred now. TKN moves to slight village.

Detess
Kas
Devo
TJ
~Mat~
~TKN~

Fae said some wierd things but I'm not processing much right now I'm too distracted getting ready for my 12 day workweek that someone thought was a fine idea to give me
I'm only even getting like 3 hours of overtime they must hate me

Alpha
Ash
 

EDIT: Right i was going to village read Fae for trying to vote at night but last time i did that i did it with stick and stick was a wolf so

Edited May 3, 2023 by Illwei

[Ashbringer]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Who is this person named Kas that you think would want to deepwolf? I'm not sure I've ever met that player before.

Who is this person named Ash who's not whispering? 

Always time to try something new. Well, not always, but sometimes there's time. (Also Kas specifically called that out earlier this game, which paranoid!Ash is being paranoid about.)

[Elandera]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Ok I think i understand- the pallid mask nulls actions instead of having them still go through?

A pallid mask will function largely the same as the White Fox roleblock.

[Alvron]

11 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Hi Elims

Edited to add 2: @Alvron: 

?

Hi Kas *waves*

Hmm, was there a question in there somewhere?

3 hours ago, TheAlpha929 said:

only three elims left! Or two! Idk

Two! Then one! Then none!
Tasty!

[Tea Leaf]

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

EDIT: Right i was going to village read Fae for trying to vote at night but last time i did that i did it with stick and stick was a wolf so

This is only my second game, and I was a tad annoyed about someone wasting time to VitC me. So I randomly choose from the list of people left. Then voted for them (like a fool) which turns out A. wouldn't work, B. didn't mean anything (Minor error).

Edited May 3, 2023 by The Last Fæ

[---]

36 minutes ago, Elandera said:

A pallid mask will function largely the same as the White Fox roleblock.

Therefore @Kasimir Why are you immediately discounting the idea that Archer had a pallid mask, since per elandera's rules all of the kills act as if they go through regardless of what kinda protect was used

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

10 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Therefore @Kasimir Why are you immediately discounting the idea that Archer had a pallid mask, since per elandera's rules all of the kills act as if they go through regardless of what kinda protect was used

Sart died to a shade expert counterattack, so it couldn't have been a pallid mask. Also, Archer would have lost a mask by being targeted by TKN's glowpaste.