Long Game 89: Blessings of Metal

[Ashbringer he/him]

I'm not entirely sure how much is serious, but please remember that this is a game we all play, and try and make sure everyone has some fun!

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

7 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

I find this incredibly suspicious.

...how?

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just now, The Unknown Novel said:

...how?

/sarcasm

It's kind of hilarious, actually:P

[Illwei]

54 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Edit: Also, Kas, I'm not going to vote you this cycle. Maybe later, if Illwei flips green, but I think it's unproductive to consider at the moment.

Me flipping green is not unproductive to hypothesize about. Killing Kas purely because I will flip green is. 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

Me flipping green is not unproductive to hypothesize about. Killing Kas purely because I will flip green is. 

Yeah, I suppose. I didn't mean it exactly that way, but discussion is always good.

You said you were looking in the pools of <Mat and Kas> and <TUN and Me>. If you had the ability to lynch one of them, who would you and why? What are your general suspicions at the moment?

[Archer he/him]

There's eight villagers and one elim left. Here's how the kills might go:

-exe Illwei

-NK Wiz

-exe TUN

-NK Mat

-exe Turtle

-NK Kas

-exe Stick

-NK me for e!Sil wins. If an NK is blocked at any point, this will actually lead to trying the NK again before the round becomes a 1 v 1. Ties kill no one, so they'll succeed on the subsequent NK, barring vote manip. 

So we need to kill the elim within our next three attempts. Most people seem to have an elim shortlist of that length or shorter, and the differences between how their deaths should be prioritized are slight. So I don't think we should argue each kill excessively. 

My votes will stand, essentially in deference to the majority who are more up to date on the game. 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

There's eight villagers and one elim left. Here's how the kills might go

It could also be 7-2 if there were four elims originally. Worse odds that leave us even more exposed.

I feel like there's no way we've solved the game this early, right? The more I think about it, the less confident I feel about voting Illwei. 

Archer, why Turtle over Illwei?

[Kasimir he/him]

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

@Kasimir

becayse I don't believe in you being an elim completely

And because my vote on tun has nothing to do with self pres

And if you are village then reread your point #2 and stop with that petty nonsense. I'm trying to play a game and you're being dramatic for no reason. 

I am going to ignore the ad hominem.

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

Not only is it not a good idea, it's 1) an appeal to emotion that makes people not want to kill you and 2) strictly anti town if you are town

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And yeah @Kas agreeing to that is like the opposite of rethinking and reevaluating and like is never a good idea :P.

Yes and no - I don't suggest it if I'm not down for it, since you had better be damned sure you want to say yes if people take you up on it. But fundamentally, I suggested it as a reaction test. To see who was down for it, and who wasn't. To try to do a typology of the responses, if I potentially could at all, within the time given me. And I wanted a clear sensing of exactly how certain Illwei really was: Illwei has been banging the E!me drum since the start of this cycle and categorically insists in her posts that I'm Evil. She has consistently refused to engage with anything I've been saying, so it's been pretty difficult to get a measurement from her that makes sense. Fundamentally, when offered a high-stakes chance to get rid of me, how dead certain is she? How willing to commit to it is she? In addition, in a V!me-V!Illwei world, the best thing for the Elims is a that one-two punch: to lynch me, and then to lynch her. In that world, I'd expected to see a moderate or performative no - can't say that has been that terribly successful.

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

And I didn't even read the rest of the post and now I see it's all that.  Kas you're throwing a fit over me saying you could be an elim. You're either better than that or an elim so pick one

Again, it is truly wondrous, the things one will not see when one does not want to see them.

Edited to add:

19 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

It could also be 7-2 if there were four elims originally. Worse odds that leave us even more exposed.

I don't disagree with this, but a four Elim world with a free Coinshot kill is a steep climb for the Village. Four member team is already 28% - 30% is high for an Elim team without some appropriate balancing factor, and we know Xinow as a Coinshot. I'd expect potentially a higher prevalence of kills and protects than we've seen (maybe, to be fair, we haven't had that many flips so we just don't know) in action. 

Not saying this is impossible, but in the current state of our knowledge/ignorance, pick one, I'd ascribe low probability.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Kasimir

[Illwei]

I'm not refusing to engage with things

I am busy

Every single post I have made today has been from my phone while I'm driving because I unironically have no time this weekend.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

So we need to kill the elim within our next three attempts. Most people seem to have an elim shortlist of that length or shorter, and the differences between how their deaths should be prioritized are slight. So I don't think we should argue each kill excessively. 

I think my ordering would be more or less some variant of Illwei / Turtle -> Turtle / Illwei -> Archer/Symph. Since the start of this cycle, I've probably flooded Ash with fifty+ different PMs on which way I think I'm leaning for pretty much the entire suspect pool. But fundamentally, I'm at the point where I think I've thought it through and gone through enough indecision that if not stopped, I will rethink anything and everything. That is not helpful. I am not going to do it.

The basic considerations are still this for me:

Mat and Wiz are off the table. I've explained why until I'm blue in the face, and frankly I am not going to keep on doing so.

Unordered:

D1 and JNV's repeatedly pursuing Stick D1-D2 and JNV's own inconsistencies about Stick don't make E!Stick make sense.

D1 JNV-Silho interaction, N2 Silho's tone, and JNV's shifting attitude towards Silho make me lean E!Silho. [Edited to add: V!Silho. I'm tired. I am definitely sleeping now.]

Turtle (?) - I've probably promoted and demoted Turtle too many times than is healthy for a single person. I don't fundamentally disagree with Illwei that JNV's attitude towards Turtle seems more indicative of V!Turtle. I do think the willingness to be fairly positive on Turtle compared to basically anyone else is striking.

TUN / Archer are a crapshoot. I don't have a strong opinion on who should go where - I currently lean towards the view it's risky for E!Archer to gambit the way he did on Wiz. I also still think that never made sense, V or E, because Wiz's claim was fairly solid. I also find it hard to see E!TUN unvoting D1 - but I accept it was early, and that's why TUN is still in this pile. By the point I finished going through JNV's posts, I am, if forced to give an opinion, leaning V on TUN - I accept that Stick disagrees, but I still think JNV's push on TUN doesn't fully/quite make sense for distancing.

Illwei - with Illwei, it's a PoE issue, partly the active player theory she herself doesn't find objectionable, since it is her own working hypothesis when pushing me, partly the fact the Conq NK doesn't really make sense with anyone else, partly her attitudes towards JNV and JNV's attitude towards her compared to basically anyone else who made the same votes, partly the Araris NK also makes a tad more sense, partly the fact she doesn't seem to be interested in good faith engagement but has resorted to dismissiveness to back her position early in the cycle, though late cycle is making me question yet again since that's closer to what I'd expect from a Village baseline. After arguing the point to and fro with Mat for what, most of the first half of the cycle?, I just don't take her D1 votes to be strongly exculpatory, and I'm concerned by her initial inability to recognise that Wiz and Mat should, by this point, be 'last ditch revisions.'

As I said in that longpost where I finally voted on Illwei, this is where I'm at. I'm going to sleep now. I'm not interested in litigating this further because I don't think I have any SAN left to go over the next epicycle again, and I've voted where I feel I have to, based on everything that has come out so far. I am fundamentally down for a flip within <Turtle, TUN, Archer, Illwei.> For pragmatic reasons, I am ok with giving Archer a Turn but fundamentally indifferent, Turtle may or may not be slated to be replaced, and I've already laid out my thoughts on TUN.

I'm done. Goodnight  

EDITED TO ADD 2: The simple way to put what I wanted to gauge: I wanted a sense of whether it was a convenience suspicion for Illwei, or insincere, which suggests E!Illwei more strongly. Or whether it was fundamentally a good faith suspicion, which I would take to be more readily emerging from a Village perspective. 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Kasimir
Fixed spelling goodnight

[Ashbringer he/him]

15 minutes until the turn ends!

[Illwei]

You should know me better than that

[Ashbringer he/him]

Time! Rollover should be shortly.

[Ashbringer he/him]

LG89 Night 3: Accounted For

Another day. The acid burning had left many kandra shaken. That and the idea of kandra dying in the Homeland was... alien. The Second Generation couldn't afford to let this revolt stand, lest the more moderate of the Generations decide that the Homeland was no longer the safe haven from the outside the leaders among the Second were discussing.

They needed to act, and act they did. IllWei had claimed to be a loyal Second from the start, but the group needed to take no chances. They needed all the Thirds accounted for.

 

Illwei was imprisoned! They were a member of the Second Generation with a Blessing of Presence!

Vote Count:

• Illwei (5): The Unknown Novel, The Wandering Wizard, Shining Silhouette, Kasimir
• The Unknown Novel (1): _Stick_, Illwei
• Turtle (1): Archer

 

The turn will end at 8:00 PM PDT (or 10:00 PM CDT) on Monday, September 26th.

 

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Matrim's Dice - MaTriim
2. @The Unknown Novel - NoVeel
3. @The Wandering Wizard - WiiZaad
4. @_Stick_ - Stiiik
5. Shqueeves - WalDo - Second Generation, Blessing of Awareness
6. Araris Valerian - ArVaal - Second Generation, Blessing of Presence
7. xinoehp512 - NottIt - Third Generation, Blessing of Potency
8. Conquestor - ConQuis - Second Generation, Blessing of Stability
9. @Shining Silhouette - Taazzel
10. SymphonianBookworm - Zanaria / @Archer - AarChur
11. @Kasimir - KeSaam
12. @Turtle - TurTaal
13. JNV - JenVee - Third Generation, Blessing of Awareness
14. Illwei - IllWei - Second Generation, Blessing of Presence

 

[Mat he/him]

Sorry about that

Now I’m annoyed I used my Blessing but I hoped that just this once this could be easy ;-;

More thinking tomorrow, I suppose we’ll have to do a lot of that. No, Kas, I’m not auto killing you tomorrow.

[Archer he/him]

22 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Sorry about that

Now I’m annoyed I used my Blessing but I hoped that just this once this could be easy ;-;

More thinking tomorrow, I suppose we’ll have to do a lot of that. No, Kas, I’m not auto killing you tomorrow.

Which blessing was that? And why are you admitting to it

Also, overthinking isn't always the best strat. Just putting it out there. :D. 

I have thoughts about using powers tonight, but I'll leave the IKYK to play out untouched when it comes to the NK. But if anyone has a provable action they'd like to use to prove they aren't NKing, be my guest. 

Any objections to me using Potency on Turtle? Gives us a free clear (of myself) if I'm wrong, wins us the game if I'm right. I think the net benefits work or either way. 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

38 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

More thinking tomorrow, I suppose we’ll have to do a lot of that. No, Kas, I’m not auto killing you tomorrow.

Agreed, although I don't want to think of their death wish as Village, since Kas earlier noted that they don't ask to die as much as elim, so it could be them noting that and using it for v!cred. The kind of giving up tone that Kas had last cycle also seems kinda like e!Kas, but that isn't substantial either.

9 minutes ago, Archer said:

I have thoughts about using powers tonight, but I'll leave the IKYK to play out untouched when it comes to the NK. But if anyone has a provable action they'd like to use to prove they aren't NKing, be my guest. 

Well, I could either protect Turtle and prove both of us, but Turtle wouldn't die, or I could just guess who the nk will target. I'll leave it up to everyone else.

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Which blessing was that? And why are you admitting to it

The vote manip. And I don’t know. Guess that’s part of my annoyance :P. Would have been better to leave my powers up in the air.

No immediate objections to shooting Turtle but someone should run the numbers to see if that costs us a cycle if you’re wrong.

1 hour ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Well, I could either protect Turtle and prove both of us, but Turtle wouldn't die, or I could just guess who the nk will target. I'll leave it up to everyone else.

Just guess for the NK for sure. Don’t do me or Kas, I don’t think you’d be targets. My guess would be in Wiz/Shining/Stick. Elims, you’re welcome for the IKYK.

[Warning: From here on out is me rambling when I should be sleeping; it’s quite disorganized]

Ah whatever, I’ll run the numbers myself. Sorry if the following only makes sense to me.

7-1, 6-1, 4-1, 2-1, 0-1, three chances

7-1, 5-1, 3-1, 1-1, two chances

So a miss on turtle does cost us a cycle which is too bad. My PoE at this point is in an order of [Turtle/TUN, Kas/Archer] and if I had to order that further it’d probably be TUN, Turtle, Kas, Archer.

The good news is that if Archer clears himself and turtle dies and flips village that leaves me two candidates and two cycles so all I have to do is not be wrong (which I have a great record of this game >>) but idk

Actually, TUN, can you block Archer? (Protect turtle I mean) I changed my mind, I’d rather have you two confirm each other. I think that’s more valuable.

I really don’t want to hypothesize the likelihood of two v Coinshots with three in existence in a 14 player game but in the chance Archer is lying I’m… not sure exactly because if there isn’t a kill (elim or otherwise) that looks bad for Archer but the last elim doesn’t want Archer to be confirmed. Is there any advantage to Archer lying here? Like is there a way he can get away with being ‘cleared’. I thought there was but now I can’t seem to figure out what it is lol

But if Archer and TUN confirm each other, like, unless that’s the team (unlikely) I don’t really see how both can’t be telling the truth and that’s useful since they’re half my PoE at this point.

Off to bed, someone tell me why I’m wrong before I wake up. Archer I guess I should ask if you’re fine with using your kill to purposefully fail, maybe it gets refunded? Ok actually I should ask @Ashbringer if someone protects the person being killed, what results do the protector and the attacker get? If the protector misses, what result do they get?

Turtle could also theoretically confirm they were attacked/survived 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Stick. she/her]

Quote

• The Elim Kill can be used the same turn as a Blessing, by the same player.

 

[Ashbringer he/him]

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Off to bed, someone tell me why I’m wrong before I wake up. Archer I guess I should ask if you’re fine with using your kill to purposefully fail, maybe it gets refunded? Ok actually I should ask @Ashbringer if someone protects the person being killed, what results do the protector and the attacker get? If the protector misses, what result do they get?

Not entirely sure what you mean, but:

• Potency kills that are blocked by Presence (or that double up with another Potency/Elim Kill) are not refunded.
• Presence protects that don't block a kill are not refunded (they will be told they successfully protected their target, but nothing in this game can make a Protect really fail).
• A blocked attack will be told directly to the attacker, protector, and the person attacked/protected, as well as mentioned in the Writeup (BLANK was attacked, but survived!).

[Archer he/him]

6 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

• The Elim Kill can be used the same turn as a Blessing, by the same player.

Curse this game for not being mechanically solvable!

This also raises the possibility of e!TUN shooting and protecting themselves at the same time, but their offer negates that possibility - although the tradeoff was for what was assumed to be a village clear anyway. 

I'd much rather have TUN burn his kill protection blocking an NK, ideally late in the game when the number of targets is lower, which makes the likelihood of a block higher. Particularly if it doesn't clear anyone if we cancel each other out. 

7-1, 6-1, 4-1, eg 3-1, 1-1, is still three chances though. But a successful block gives a villager clear, which helps us out. 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

7 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I really don’t want to hypothesize the likelihood of two v Coinshots with three in existence in a 14 player game

I'm leaning more towards two elims left at this point because of this.

8 hours ago, Archer said:

Any objections to me using Potency on Turtle? Gives us a free clear (of myself) if I'm wrong, wins us the game if I'm right. I think the net benefits work or either way. 

Well, what are the other potential targets?

[Mat he/him]

Ok thank you Stick lol

Just try to block the elim kill then, TUN.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

I don't have much time right now.

3 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

I'm leaning more towards two elims left at this point because of this.

But Shining how is a four elim team going to let their teamate be bussed on day one without any attempt, even half hearted to save them?

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Just now, The Wandering Wizard said:

But Shining how is a four elim team going to let their teamate be bussed on day one without any attempt, even half hearted to save them?

I don't know. Inactivity? Time issues?

Good point though. Is it possible that there are two elim coinshots?