Long Game 89: Blessings of Metal

[Mat]

17 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Yeah, I most just unvoted him because he couldn't have been evil for putting in the kill. I'm gonna lean Archer. 

That was a misunderstanding on my part, but I still stand by it being unlikely for e!Archer to open with a counterclaim. It’s odd either way, but when replacing an inactive, why draw undue attention to yourself?

I feel like there’s enough to not vote a slot we have effectively nothing on today. I still agree with my marking of JNV/Stick and JNV/Shining as not e/e for reasons explained and I agree with Shining that TUN looks village from JNV including him in their shot list. Wiz shot JNV, I won’t endorse a Kas kill today, so I’m kind of down to just Illwei and Turtle at this point and I think there’s VC mechanic reasons pointing to e!Illwei. I’ll outline those hopefully but I’m dead tired after this week, I have to work tonight, and tomorrow’s Sunday so I’ll be on less so don’t count on it. But idk.

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That was a misunderstanding on my part, but I still stand by it being unlikely for e!Archer to open with a counterclaim. It’s odd either way, but when replacing an inactive, why draw undue attention to yourself?

In a world where you're the solo Elim left though, isn't it basically go big or go home?

I could see a normal play if it's a 7 v 2 but in an 8 v 1 world, your chances aren't great anyway.

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think there’s VC mechanic reasons pointing to e!Illwei.

Would be interested in hearing them. I can't say I'm strong V on Illwei but I've outlined why I go there.

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’ll outline those hopefully but I’m dead tired after this week, I have to work tonight, and tomorrow’s Sunday so I’ll be on less so don’t count on it. But idk.

RIP, take care too. I just got off a bad week of stuff so I feel your pain.

[Mat]

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

In a world where you're the solo Elim left though, isn't it basically go big or go home?

Would be interested in hearing them. I can't say I'm strong V on Illwei but I've outlined why I go there.

RIP, take care too. I just got off a bad week of stuff so I feel your pain.

It is, but Bookworm left no read to step into. e!Archer has a better shot pushing the other active slots and getting v read to ride out the endgame than immediately pulling a gambit that might get him killed.

Honestly, half of it comes from a quick scan of the C1 VCs you supplied— Illwei’s sitting on a side train to xino the entire turn, only switching off when (in her own words) xino outs himself by voting me. e!Illwei would have known I’d self pres and at that point xino has enough votes anyway that Illwei couldn’t have saved him. The only thing would be that she didn’t follow me onto you, but the VC numbers wouldn’t have been enough there anyway and there was a case to be made that I’d be the one to switch onto Shqueeves. Which I think I did, for about two seconds.

On D2 it’s something similar; JNV was a train for far less time than xino was but Illwei was voting Turtle and then Shining. And then suggesting TUN last turn and naked voting you today.

All that is said without actually looking at Illwei’s posts, so that probably deserves a second look, but with all the reasons I have to not vote everyone else it seems a decent enough case to me.

And thanks! But the difference between you and me is that you still megapost  

Edited September 24, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir]

19 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Honestly, half of it comes from a quick scan of the C1 VCs you supplied— Illwei’s sitting on a side train to xino the entire turn, only switching off when (in her own words) xino outs himself by voting me. e!Illwei would have known I’d self pres and at that point xino has enough votes anyway that Illwei couldn’t have saved him. The only thing would be that she didn’t follow me onto you, but the VC numbers wouldn’t have been enough there anyway and there was a case to be made that I’d be the one to switch onto Shqueeves. Which I think I did, for about two seconds.

Question for you. Why do you see the Xino vote as an outing vote?

My view is self-pres is basically NAI - the most is I would suggest voting on you specifically is odd and shows an Elim's disregard/desire to take out an active player but I think that other than that, the naked self-pres isn't weird and I would expect that from a Villager as well. But I think it's implied in thread that both you and Illwei consider it an outing vote.

The thing about this that doesn't make sense to me is Xino going onto you. I guess in the world you're proposing, E!Illwei sees you on and sees the Mat vote, and realises that there's no way in hell you're not self-presing or retaliatory voting Xino, and so buses Xino?

Edited to add:

@Matrim's Dice - Second question.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (2): Araris, JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (2): Silho, Mat
Araris (3): Illwei, Stick, Wiz
Mat (1): Kas

This is the state of affairs right before Illwei pulls off Araris and joins me on you. Why does E!Illwei do this? It exposes Xino by making him one of the lead trains in a three-way tie D1.

After that, we have this:

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (2): Araris, JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (2): Silho, Mat
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (1): Kas

To sum up, Illwei moves off Araris, exposing E!Xino. She then goes onto you, joining me in voting. After that, she pulls off you. This is a bit before Araris's key vote, which is at the one hour to rollover mark.

Why does E!Illwei expose Xino like this?

Edited September 24, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Question for you. Why do you see the Xino vote as an outing vote?

My view is self-pres is basically NAI - the most is I would suggest voting on you specifically is odd and shows an Elim's disregard/desire to take out an active player but I think that other than that, the naked self-pres isn't weird and I would expect that from a Villager as well. But I think it's implied in thread that both you and Illwei consider it an outing vote.

The thing about this that doesn't make sense to me is Xino going onto you. I guess in the world you're proposing, E!Illwei sees you on and sees the Mat vote, and realises that there's no way in hell you're not self-presing or retaliatory voting Xino, and so buses Xino?

Edited to add:

@Matrim's Dice - Second question.

This is the state of affairs right before Illwei pulls off Araris and joins me on you. Why does E!Illwei do this? It exposes Xino by making him one of the lead trains in a three-way tie D1.

After that, we have this:

To sum up, Illwei moves off Araris, exposing E!Xino. She then goes onto you, joining me in voting. After that, she pulls off you. This is a bit before Araris's key vote, which is at the one hour to rollover mark.

Why does E!Illwei expose Xino like this?

I think I lead on calling it outing more than I intended to, but I kinda went along with Illwei calling it that since my thought process during those last minutes was ‘xino voted me, I’m now not hesitant to vote xino’ ‘he switched to Kas what does that mean’ and my own ambiguity was in why I wasn’t hesitant to vote xino anymore. (Edit: to clarify: I had no clue why I suddenly didn’t mind his vote anymore, barring self pres) It was at least partially self pres on my part but also I’d figured that my train had somewhat died so it didn’t look like xino was self pressing in the moment, and there’s something about a sudden appearance to naked vote that looks suspicious :P.

Idk if that makes any sense but it’s an answer xD

To answer the second question, after Illwei’s unvote xino’s only tied with the other train (with several others close behind) and out of all of them xino’s probably had the least reason behind it. So it’s not unreasonable to assume that he’d probably be fine. Plus, xino wasn’t voting Stick at that stage, so a self pres would save him, and Illwei’s own vote was in reserve. And if the votes stayed that way, he’d survive anyway.

I don’t think a bus at :59 is out of the question because as you said, Illwei jumping to save xino wouldn’t have slipped my notice and if you’re not saving him why not join in since he’s already dead. But if Illwei’s village, then where are the elims? There has to be a point eventually where, as usual, something vaguely irrational is actually what happened. Assuming otherwise makes for a very boring D1 which I suppose is possible but with the way the trains were moving doesn’t feel right to me.

Ah, whatever, I’ve put it off long enough. Illwei.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir]

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don’t think a bus at :59 is out of the question because as you said, Illwei jumping to save xino wouldn’t have slipped my notice and if you’re not saving him why not join in since he’s already dead. But if Illwei’s village, then where are the elims? There has to be a point eventually where, as usual, something vaguely irrational is actually what happened. Assuming otherwise makes for a very boring D1 which I suppose is possible but with the way the trains were moving doesn’t feel right to me.

That's why in my head at least, it's fundamentally an Archer v. Illwei fight at the moment. I would be willing to vote either but am trying to get it right.

I agree with Silho and you on TUN (good catch, Silho!) and my own notes from the votes D1 still push me towards TUN very marginally. [Edited to add: To be clear, towards V!TUN.]

I could bring Turtle in as well, it's true, but I also do have a very, very mild reason to see Turtle as Village re: the Araris post. Will go back and read the <Turtle, Archer, Illwei> posts again later after sleep

So that sort of leaves me with the <Archer, Illwei> pool for today. 

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think I lead on calling it outing more than I intended to, but I kinda went along with Illwei calling it that since my thought process during those last minutes was ‘xino voted me, I’m now not hesitant to vote xino’ ‘he switched to Kas what does that mean’ and my own ambiguity was in why I wasn’t hesitant to vote xino anymore. (Edit: to clarify: I had no clue why I suddenly didn’t mind his vote anymore, barring self pres) It was at least partially self pres on my part but also I’d figured that my train had somewhat died so it didn’t look like xino was self pressing in the moment, and there’s something about a sudden appearance to naked vote that looks suspicious :P.

It's true, but I notice that all side-trains were really fundamentally single-vote, so if Xino wanted to self-pres, those were the only options, hence I questioned the use of 'outing.' What's at stake is less you - I ask you as well because you and Illwei were on, and Illwei later highlights it repeatedly as outing, and unlike you, she didn't have the immediate incentive of being voted on by Xino

So I guess I would say the question here is whether Illwei was pushing a bit more definitively than she should be in identifying Xino's vote as an 'outing vote.' That's why I was asking you about your thought process, as a comparison.

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

To answer the second question, after Illwei’s unvote xino’s only tied with the other train (with several others close behind) and out of all of them xino’s probably had the least reason behind it. So it’s not unreasonable to assume that he’d probably be fine. Plus, xino wasn’t voting Stick at that stage, so a self pres would save him, and Illwei’s own vote was in reserve. And if the votes stayed that way, he’d survive anyway.

Ok, I can accept that, I guess.

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don’t think a bus at :59 is out of the question because as you said, Illwei jumping to save xino wouldn’t have slipped my notice and if you’re not saving him why not join in since he’s already dead. But if Illwei’s village, then where are the elims? There has to be a point eventually where, as usual, something vaguely irrational is actually what happened. Assuming otherwise makes for a very boring D1 which I suppose is possible but with the way the trains were moving doesn’t feel right to me.

This is what I go to and fro about. But I ultimately do agree that the moment Xino voted you in self-pres, he was dead. The thing I'm struggling with is more - like, they're teammates right? In this world we're considering. So why does Xino vote you? Why isn't it coordinated with Illwei? Because I can't see Illwei signing off on that, due to you being around. Much less the way Xino did it.

I guess the counterpoint to that might be that Xino just posted, but that kind of seems fairly like going rogue. That and Xino's lack of attention to the votes (mistaking the votes on Stick) makes me wonder if the team isn't really high activity at all.

I will give you this though - suppose Illwei is E. This is a world where I could see the Araris kill making marginally more sense than if JNV made the call for Turtle/Symph. I don't deny an Araris kill seems in JNV's meta (I'll check this) by killing the player everyone is more certain is Village, but the thing is, Araris was the one who kept insisting that the votes only really clear you and him. He kept on refusing to agree it cleared Illwei. In that light, I could see Araris being killed because he was simply going to be troublesome.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So why does Xino vote you? Why isn't it coordinated with Illwei?

I mean, from the looks of it xino was afk for a few hours and came online just in time to vote whoever he thought to in the moment so I doubt it was planned in the doc, I doubt he was in the doc at EoD at all. Which I guess is the counterpoint you mentioned, but what you’d call going rogue I’d call having no time  

[Kasimir]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean, from the looks of it xino was afk for a few hours and came online just in time to vote whoever he thought to in the moment so I doubt it was planned in the doc, I doubt he was in the doc at EoD at all. Which I guess is the counterpoint you mentioned, but what you’d call going rogue I’d call having no time  

Touche. Says a lot about my Elim meta I guess  

Ngl, from a pragmatic perspective, I'd rather just give Archer time since with his rate of content production, he's easier to read than when we're running off Symph-near zero.

Though pragmatics is a very bad basis on which to vote. Especially since we're not near the mid-cycle mark yet.

I will sleep on it and come back to this. I think the current state of the votes is something like:

Quote

Kas (2): Illwei, Kas
TUN (1): Stick
Wiz (1): Archer
Illwei (1): Mat

I am leaning towards Illwei if only for the pragmatics, I will admit. But I need to do my trademark thing and go over everything and fret again.

[Mat]

Can you unvote yourself though :P.

[Stick.]

<TUN, Shining, Turtle, Archer, illwei> Taking Kas out because I don't see why e!Kas would resign himself to the exe like that - sure, it could be an all-or-nothing gamble where he either gets exe'd and loses the game or gets widely accepted as v!Kas, in which case it's smooth sailing till lylo. Question is, though, would e!Kas decide that one unexplained vote was enough of a threat to warrant a gamble such as this? It doesn't seem terribly productive to me.

About JNV's post from last turn calling on coinshots to take a hit at TUN/Wiz - I personally don't see how that points to v!TUN. Simply because what reason did anybody have to take JNV's advice there? JNV wasn't trusted enough for this post to have any actual impact (evident from the actual vig kill last night). As far as I recall, not one player was village-reading them. I can't imagine JNV typing this and thinking anybody was actually going to follow through on the request. Not to mention the fact that what they really said was 'kill these people but also don't, because IKYKs'. It makes for the perfect, low-risk distancing.

14 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Here is a really important point - Silho refuses to shift vote off Xino to JNV's challenge. I actually think that this is quite V. A teammate's prompt should've gotten Silho to budge - this is like, thirty minutes to rollover, and you'd expect that sort of contact to have been choreographed in the Elim doc. So my apologies to @Shining Silhouette  I don't know I'm certain enough to green, but it's good enough for me that Silho is out of my primary suspect pool. - @_Stick_, want to hear your thoughts on this score if possible.

That's...huh. Looking at that particular post, I'd point out that in this post they did sneak in that little 'if anyone has particularly good reasoning for an exe candidate, I'll consider voting someone else, just give me the reasoning'. But the problem is that they didn't, especially when my exe was right there. Hm. WHYY do Shining's (seeming) motivations not match their actions smh. 

I see Mat's argument, suppose I wouldn't mind an illwei exe today. But overall I am considerably more suspicious of TUN, hence my vote.

[Kasimir]

On 9/24/2022 at 5:30 PM, _Stick_ said:

I wonder why they didn't just vote on Araris. Instead they left it at 3-2-2 between Araris, xino, and myself. Perhaps they wanted to spread the votes out in an attempt to defend xino in a not-so-obvious way? Also worth noting that they chose not to vote on TUN.

This might be an indicator of the team's overall strategy. Though Araris swapping to Xino and Conq joining really killed any efforts to keep the train in motion.

So. The thing is, I feel your issues with Silho emerge from:

A. Those posts
B. Reading JNV.

I'd note that I am less confident in reading JNV than you are, but I'd like to ask (I have already, but I imagine you might not want to return to see a longpost) how you account for this:

Quote

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (2): Araris, JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (2): Silho, Mat
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (1): Kas

You might remember as you flagged this - but basically, Illwei takes her vote off Mat, so Xino and you are the two lead trains. At this point, JNV flags Silho's vote, and Silho...leaves his vote there despite saying he could be persuaded onto another train. He then heads off for the night. In an E!Silho/E!JNV world, what is the point of this interaction? If anything, you'd think it'd provide a pretext for Silho to pull his vote off Xino, especially with JNV heading off for the night. But this doesn't happen. Why doesn't it happen, if E!Silho?

It does read like a V/E interaction to me, in light of JNV's alignment. But also, Silho says this:

On 9/20/2022 at 9:55 AM, Shining Silhouette said:

Don't really have much to contribute this cycle, but just wanted to comment that if the votes tie, no one is exed, right?

It's probably generally helpful for the village to exe the most suspicious candidate instead of giving the elims another night to kill, I'd suppose. 

Just a thought

He could very well easily take his vote off Xino, both in response to the challenge, as well as citing the fact he thinks a tie is bad. As far as he knew, this would put Xino out of the danger zone, as this post was made nearly an hour to rollover. Not acting leaves the decision in the Village's hands (as it turned out.) So why does E!Silho do this?

---

Anyway, that aside. I promised I'd look at everyone's posts within my narrow pool. Technically I should look at Illwei's too, which I will do later tonight :|

Note: This is probably late as I think I see a ping and I have no idea if someone ninjaed me but I don't want to lose this post so whee posting blind.

1. Archer/Symph

On 9/19/2022 at 5:24 AM, SymphonianBookworm said:

Hi, sorry I was away for a bit. I've had a lot of homework and just work these past couple of days.
 

  Hide contents

Did I miss anything important?

 

(Un)enviably for Archer, this is all Symph says. Symph doesn't come back to the game. I will say that disengagement could be being busy, or it could be picking up an alignment Symph just doesn't know what to do with. Symph, as I understand, is a new player. My only previous game with Symph was the QF that just ended - QF62 - where Symph was Village!Feanor. So, Symph has subsequent posts in other RP threads (great!) but makes no further SE appearance.

After this, Archer comes in with the counterclaim to Wiz. Which - I'm understanding Stick's MR56 comparison here because as I pointed out, there's no real incentive to do that. There's nothing functionally achieved in-game that hasn't already been achieved by fakecounterclaiming Wiz. So I don't see why V!Archer wants to do this.

Mat's counter is that the play for E!Archer is to come into this game and try to secure a Village read by conventional play. 

I don't strongly disagree with this, but I also feel that a 1v8 is rough odds anyway. Maybe it's fine for a 2v7 but I struggle to see how Xino dies in a team of four world. But okay. Let's pathwalk. To recap: Wiz claims, Archer fakecounterclaims. What is the expected play for E!Archer here? What does E!Archer expect to gain from this?

There are three considerations I want to point out.

First, it's difficult to see a way out of this for E!Archer. Suppose the best case scenario - we lynch Wiz, Wiz flips V!Coinshot. E!Archer is dead next cycle. So if we want to see this being a successful play, there has to be some way out of it for E!Archer. I guess the best way out would be if Archer was aware that multiple kills on the same target are not written up as being multiple kills. In all fairness, I don't think this is something that is typically done on SE, so it is not a difficult assumption to have made without asking. I don't know how much of a risk that is. So the best play goes something like this: E!Archer fakecounterclaims the kill, Wiz challenges him, we flip Wiz, Archer argues hard that: A. multiple kills were possible, B. no Elim would fakecounterclaim because obviously the Elim runs two risks - if disbelieved off the bat, we kill the Elim, if disbelieved after Wiz flipped, we kill the Elim, we believe Archer as a result of this line of reasoning and V!read him.

That is pretty risky. Archer is known for strong risk appetites. (Cf. MR56 polar bear.) The other reason I think the 1v8 world matters is because it shifts the risk-reward calculus for Elims. But does it make sense?

Well, it's hard to say. This didn't play out because Wiz pointed out that Symph wasn't even on, so Archer couldn't have submitted the vig kill.

Second, there's the question of whether - if playing the fakecounterclaim game, Archer would at least have checked the activity of the player he was replacing. I get the sense he didn't, that he posted off the cuff when entering the thread, and that meshes a little poorly with the notion that this was a calculated gambit. Sure, Archer, Mat, myself, Devo, have all made reckless plays on both teams without checking the rules. But still, there is that.

Third, it's difficult to see why V!Archer would feel the need to do this. But again, it'd be more weird for any player not Archer. I've noted time and again that Archer is the king of big plans and risky plays. He plays flashy and loud and I can't quite say that it would be out of V!Archer's profile to do this, even though I'm still stymied because I don't see a functional reason for V!Archer to fakecounterclaim either. I don't see a clear way the reaction test would work, but I'm reminded of Ash's LG and V!Experience, so I guess that's possible, though Experience has a different profile from Archer as well.

All in all, I can't rule out the world in which E!Archer does gambit with this. But I agree that for this to be a working gambit for E!Archer, it requires a pair of risks, rather than just one. I would probably weight the counterclaim E!gambit a bit higher if it had been a kill claim, rather than a kill counterclaim, since E!Archer would know Wiz is telling the truth, whereas you can at least gamble on inactivity or low activity in the kill claim world. So I guess I'm back to indecision, but probably, maybe not gung-ho on Archer immediately. Honestly I think I just don't really strongly feel Archer-Illwei - in the sense I don't feel they are Village but I am not sure I have a strong preference and am also not sure I think one is more Village than the other.

IDK, if Archer makes more posts in the interim since I've been writing this, this would be good. 

This is longer than I'd like. I'm just going to post this and go read Turtle and edit in Turtle because I think this is too long (sorry) but I need to think aloud.

Edited to add:

And I did get ninjaed. Sorry for the double, Stick  I was working on this for a longer time than I should have been.

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

That's...huh. Looking at that particular post, I'd point out that in this post they did sneak in that little 'if anyone has particularly good reasoning for an exe candidate, I'll consider voting someone else, just give me the reasoning'. But the problem is that they didn't, especially when my exe was right there. Hm. WHYY do Shining's (seeming) motivations not match their actions smh. 

But that's the thing. At that point, there's no reason for a bus. I'd argue bus point only came after Conq. I don't recall Araris particularly giving reason for you (will check) and JNV's reason boiled down to the thing about your being contradictory, which wasn't by my lights a good reason either. That's aroud half an hour in which Shining didn't take the bait. And this is Shining's...third game? Like...in an E!Shining world, both the JNV tag and the 'I'll vote someone else, just give me reasoning' are prompts to the Village or to a teammate to get him off Xino. If he's that ready to bail that he's paving the way for it, why doesn't he take the climbdowns given, or why doesn't the last teammate manufacture one? It's just a very odd attitude. I can't see that working for E!Silho.

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

<TUN, Shining, Turtle, Archer, illwei> Taking Kas out because I don't see why e!Kas would resign himself to the exe like that - sure, it could be an all-or-nothing gamble where he either gets exe'd and loses the game or gets widely accepted as v!Kas, in which case it's smooth sailing till lylo. Question is, though, would e!Kas decide that one unexplained vote was enough of a threat to warrant a gamble such as this? It doesn't seem terribly productive to me.

At some point, E!me will be seriously screwed over by V!me's relative recklessness and willingness to embrace death as compared to how conservatively E!me plays. I could point out E!me tends to underreact to suspicions in order not to attract attention and I don't recall seriously gambiting as an E player apart from the one time Orlok talked me into it, but I don't think that's very helpful if my alignment is in question anyway  

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

About JNV's post from last turn calling on coinshots to take a hit at TUN/Wiz - I personally don't see how that points to v!TUN. Simply because what reason did anybody have to take JNV's advice there? JNV wasn't trusted enough for this post to have any actual impact (evident from the actual vig kill last night). As far as I recall, not one player was village-reading them. I can't imagine JNV typing this and thinking anybody was actually going to follow through on the request. Not to mention the fact that what they really said was 'kill these people but also don't, because IKYKs'. It makes for the perfect, low-risk distancing.

Perhaps we have different risk appetites - I find it risky because the last thing you want is a lost, quiet Coinshot trying to hit TUN. The thing is I don't see it as people taking JNV's advice - Illwei was already pushing for a TUN kill, and you were also pushing TUN. If anything, I see JNV as opportunistically trying to climb onto the TUN sus and to up the ante by suggesting someone take a potshot at TUN/Wiz.

Still, unsure if JNV has that sort of risk appetite. You were teammates before: what do you recall of it?

Edited September 25, 2022 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

36 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Perhaps we have different risk appetites - I find it risky because the last thing you want is a lost, quiet Coinshot trying to hit TUN. The thing is I don't see it as people taking JNV's advice - Illwei was already pushing for a TUN kill, and you were also pushing TUN. If anything, I see JNV as opportunistically trying to climb onto the TUN sus and to up the ante by suggesting someone take a potshot at TUN/Wiz.

Still, unsure if JNV has that sort of risk appetite. You were teammates before: what do you recall of it?

IMO JNV has a moderate risk appetite but I also just don't see this instance to be of high risk. In the same post, JNV replied to illwei's TUN exe proposal with a hedgy answer (would consider TUN as an option but open to re-evaluations). If JNV really wanted TUN dead, why not go all in? If you're gonna go as far as to suggest a player be coinshot, why dance around the idea of exe'ing them? It's weird to me that they chose to respond to that post at all, given that their vig kill suggestion already implied an answer.

[Kasimir]

Had a post and lost it. Joy to the world. I'll get back later.

@_Stick_ - Had more thoughts on the JNV-TUN situation but will reply in a short while. I need a quick break before I retype. In case you're not on again, could I ask for your view on Turtle's posts?

1. N1 seems very perfunctory to me.

On 9/21/2022 at 5:19 AM, Turtle said:

22 hrs ago(my time)

• Araris Valerian (3): _Stick_, Illwei, The Wandering Wizard
• The Wandering Wizard (2): Matrim's Dice, xinoehp512
• Matrim's Dice (1): Kasimir
• _Stick_ (1): Araris Valerian
• The Unknown Novel (1): Conquestor
• xinoehp512 (1): Shining Silhouette

19 hrs ago (my time)

• Matrims Dice (2): Kasimir, Illwei
• _Stick_ (2): Araris Valerian, JNV
• xinoehp512 (2): Matrim's Dice, Shining Silhouette
• The Wandering Wizard (1): xinoehp512
• Araris Valerian (1): _Stick_
• The Unknown Novel (1): Conquestor

17 hrs ago (my time)

• xinoehp512 (5): Matrim's Dice, Shining Silhouette, Araris Valerian, Conquestor, Illwei
• Matrim's Dice (1): Kasimir
• _Stick_ (1): JNV
• Araris Valerian (1): _Stick_
• Kasimir (1): xinoehp512

+turtle, symph, and shqueef not being in here

anyone who’s name is not italicized had never voted or was voted by xino in these vcs. So people who could have been distancing are:

-me

-symph

-shqueeves

-stick

-jnv

-tuo

bolded are people who were just inactive. 
 

people who joined the xeno train last minute were:

-araris

-conq

-illwei

not to say any of this is suuuuper alignment indicative, it’s just helpful to have and gives yall info if I get nkd or lunched.

- No real alignment indications and that is half-taken back; unclear what the purpose of people who joined Xino train last minute is for.
- Not sure Turtle has much reason to fear NK or lynch at that juncture?

2. Consistency on Shqueeves

-Flags Shqueeves as inactive D1 but that's not actually the case - still, Shqueeves ends up in the distancing list.
-Has Shqueeves listed as a null:

On 9/22/2022 at 5:33 AM, Turtle said:

People I think are vil: 

-silho bc I can’t see them doing the xino poke if they’re elim, though I know I’ve done stuff like that in the past but

-kas bc he seems to be posting similar to the qf I specced and he was vil that game

those are my, like, stronger vil reads. Everyone else is vil- to null- with true nulls (not just null but no clue null) being:

-shqueeves: not a ton of info?

-illwei: they’re hard to read for me most of the time

-conq: also hard to read, I though they were elim (like convinced) in the qf and they weren’t and they feel elimmy to me now and I’m not sure what that means

In context, this reads like Turtle's lowest tier. I'm sympathetic to not having many E reads because I've spent some recent games doing PoEs for Elim players. But both Conq and Illwei being in lowest tier D2 and me and Silho being highest tier D2 seem just odd to me. It makes me question if Turtle and I are playing the same game - I just have difficulty fitting this view of the game to an alignment, seeing that Turtle doesn't really do anything with those reads.

This is posted very shortly before or after Illwei votes Turtle.

On 9/22/2022 at 8:25 PM, Turtle said:

See this as pretty v, I see e!illwei voting wiz or araris here rather than bussing a teammate 

Turtle does move to V!Illwei later on, and to the claim most of the Xino train is V, which is fair and what most people would think. But that's at least a step behind thread consensus, which had already reached that point.

On 9/23/2022 at 9:36 AM, Turtle said:

-so kas quoted a post shqueeves made and said it gave weird vibes or something along those lines but he didn’t know why, and to me the post felt a bit like an elim trying to aggressively put themselves in a town mindset if that makes any sense

But doesn't vote Shqueeves despite having consistent Shqueeves ??? 

I am struggling to get a clear read on Turtle - Turtle's now gone solidly back into null for me, but as I understand the situation, Ash is looking for pinch-hitters so IDK if Turtle is a D3 problem.

Ok, now I'm going to step out and take a cup of tea before I go back to fighting the editor and replying on JNV.

Ah soddit I'll do it now.

2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

IMO JNV has a moderate risk appetite but I also just don't see this instance to be of high risk. In the same post, JNV replied to illwei's TUN exe proposal with a hedgy answer (would consider TUN as an option but open to re-evaluations). If JNV really wanted TUN dead, why not go all in? If you're gonna go as far as to suggest a player be coinshot, why dance around the idea of exe'ing them? It's weird to me that they chose to respond to that post at all, given that their vig kill suggestion already implied an answer.

To be fair, it might be revealing of my own risk profile as an E player: I think it's circumstantially high risk, for one - you're already raising TUN's profile by amplifying calls from two leading Villagers to have TUN killed or to place TUN as a major candidate the next day. Players running off the thread mood and willing to go with the louder voices will regard it as a potential consensus point. Besides the manufacturing of a seeming thread consensus, you also have the fact that Illwei and you are fairly solid were fairly Village-defended last Night. We tell players not to sheep, but the risk exists. Given the possible prevalence of one-shot Coinshots (since they're really less powerful than standard Coinshots), anyone you put on the chopping block is someone you have to be prepared to lose. On a low activity two man team (with Xino down), that feels more risky because the consequences are harsher - 7 v 2 is doable if very hard. 8 v 1 is Die Hard.

I'm also not convinced JNV really wanted TUN qua TUN dead. I think JNV wanted to blend in, and that meant a lot of hedging. I think TUN was raw opportunism, since they saw a chance to back a train from you and Illwei. I think that TUN is a fairly low-hanging fruit lynch - he doesn't care to really participate and he just does whatever he wants, which means there's always the temptation to just flip him and be done with. But that also means that anyone actively pushing TUN without a decent case gets a certain amount of scrutiny for opportunism. I don't think JNV had a case for TUN - both because (duh!) they're Evil, and because having not really said much, there's nothing strong to push about TUN, really.

The other issue is that if V, Illwei is just tricky. That single statement - sure, let's just sign on to lynch TUN tomorrow, do not pass Go, do not collect $200, smells fishy. Standard good V doctrine says that we cannot bypass discussed lynches - the discussion is not optional at all and is crucial for refining suspicions. Signing on to that statement with no real idea why V!Illwei wants TUN dead doesn't sound like a good idea. The 'open to re-evaluation' is performative padding, meant to allow a climbdown if there's a chance to lynch someone else the next day.

On 9/24/2022 at 8:36 AM, JNV said:

I mean Im kinda against deciding who were voting the night before out of principle to leave ourselves open to more options and reevaluation to make sure we dont let evils hide in the vote by just clumping on a guy but Im ok with The Unknown Novel as an option to vote on 

I think you basically have to say this no matter what unless you are a Villager with something up your sleeve. Refusing re-evaluation and predeciding a lynch looks awful. 

Like, the more I read JNV's post, the more all I'm getting out of it is they tried to play FUD x10000 as their strat:

On 9/24/2022 at 8:36 AM, JNV said:

Am I the only one who just doesnt get why Shqueeves was on the table at all cause like Silhouette had good and bad and thats why it was confusing Stick was eh but not incredibly weird and thats why it was confusing but Shqueeves just didnt seem to have good or bad I dont really get it like I read Kasimirs post about it a few times I dont know 

Ok i know these ideas arent mutually exclusive but they feel mutually exclusive cause there was a push on Shqueeves on the end there but if Stick is village theres no motive for that so the only location for evils would be at the beginning but the problem with that is I think Ill just always diehard trust Kasimir thats a problem and Im working on it and look Silhoeutte feels weird but tone is hard and I dont feel like weird tone is evil tone necessarily if anything itd be well not reverse but at least orthagonal and I think I havent bee npaying enough attention to the game honestly I feel lost and its just night 2 and Silhouette is just out there like opinions I dont agree with conclusions I wouldnt draw but Im also trying to work on not voting off everything weird cause weird isnt always evil and theres merit to village Silhoeutte but I dont know

Two worlds one with evil on Shqueeves one without

So in the world without evil on Shqueeves that clears everyone there plus kind of implies the evils didnt care about the vote which implies village Stick 

The pool of everyone not on Shqueeves is Novel Stick Conquestor Symphonian Turtle Illwei 

Taking out Stick for previously mentioned reasons  so then its  Novel Conquestor  Symphonian Turtle Illwei 

I dont really see Illweis xinoehp vote in an evil Illwei world same iwth Conquestors xinoehp vote so it becomsee Novel Symphonian Turtle the people who are just blobs of confusion in my head -> Kas note here: They seem to defend V!Illwei, FYI.

So in the world with evil on Shqueeves it kind of implies evil Stick cause otherwise why care but Ill split it into two worlds

So world where Stick is evil and has a teammate on Shqueeves the Shqueeves voters are Matrim Wizard Silhouette Kasimir based on Matrims xinoehp interactions I dont see it and honestly I could feel similarly about Silhouette but the way silhouette thinks seems very different from the way I think so erring on the side of caution and leaving them in and like 2 hours before rollover D1 Kasimir was online a vote count was fresh the three way tie was obvious and no effort is made not even a preference for a theoretically evil Stick over the one shot kill xinoehp so thats out leaving Wizard and Silhouette and Ill look at those later too

In the world where Stick isnt evil and theres evil on Shqueeves honestly the same argumnets apply to Matrim and Kasimir i guess this split was useless oh well so just ignore the split 

Symphonians just sorta not around so Im ignoring them lets see what replacs them

The Unknown NOvel well I dont really know theyre just sorta there but I dont like their recent statement about Silhouette not that I disagree cause I agree somewhat but the way they just mention the Kasimir argument wahtever especially coming after Kasimirs good rebuttal seems like its sorta riding coattails if you know what I mean saying something easy to say just to seem like youve said something and overall they havent said much at l  Kas note here: Throws shade on TUN.

Turtle has been seeming weird but weirdly active honestly and kinda feels like Silhouette a bit like talking perpendicularly sorta thing like skew lines not paralel but never touching either but also nothing like Silhouette just kinda simiar by being different from what I expect but they also havent done anything vote wise honestly so leaning kind of hmm for them but like theyve been trying thats nice thats good I feel like thats a good change

With Stick well Stick feels less wobbly but still just a bit but I think its time to broaden the pool of evil especially given how xinoehp death implies low active team like I think Id vote them before Silhouette but theyre not my first choice tomorrow Kas note here: Willing to accept the low activity team. Walks back Stick a little. Might indicate more active teammate.

Wizard well Wizard says a lot of things and doesnt say why and that bugs me but they do that as village too but also I dont know if Ive encountered evil Wizard honestly dont know

Silhouette well weve talked about silhouette a lot and honestly the xinoehp vote has me somewhat convinced ish maybe in them as not evil probably so basically my mind says probably vllage my heart is protesting 

If anyone has potency blessing maybe take a shot at Novel or Wizard the complete black boxes or maybe dont so we can make them waste any protection they have or do it or dont confuse them make it hard to tell 

I mean Im kinda against deciding who were voting the night before out of principle to leave ourselves open to more options and reevaluation to make sure we dont let evils hide in the vote by just clumping on a guy but Im ok with The Unknown Novel as an option to vote on 

Please appreciate this guys.

I don't do post analysis. I suck at post analysis.

I suffered .__.

But also, okay. My main takeaway, and every thing I've highlighted in this post is how much waffling JNV does. They're allergic to drawing any real conclusions. They accept the low activity team hypothesis but just can't seem to decide who they're suspicious about - the highlights show every single time JNV says something and then squirrels around or half-takes it back or expresses uncertainty, and I can't help but feel that's deliberate. Perhaps partly because JNV doesn't really have the bandwidth to fabricate suspicions, but also partly potentially because JNV wants to stop any consensus from coalescing or real read progress (if so, @_Stick_, this might be a point in favour of someone Evil between <TUN, Turtle>.)

Here's who JNV has strong opinions about:
-V!Illwei
-V!me
-V!Mat
- TUN ("The Unknown NOvel well I dont really know theyre just sorta there but I dont like their recent statement about Silhouette not that I disagree cause I agree somewhat but the way they just mention the Kasimir argument wahtever especially coming after Kasimirs good rebuttal seems like its sorta riding coattails if you know what I mean saying something easy to say just to seem like youve said something and overall they havent said much at l" -This is fairly unvarnished. They accuse TUN of being opportunistic.)

Here's who JNV moderately waffles over:
-Turtle ("honestly so leaning kind of hmm for them but like theyve been trying thats nice thats good I feel like thats a good change" - IMO, the nicest thing JNV has to say of anyone in the low activity pool is basically to Turtle. That faint praise at the end.)
-Silho ("my mind says probably vllage my heart is protesting " - this reads to me as a reluctant switch after consistent Silho arguments and defense, FYI, given JNV's opinion has changed on Silho far too many times in the single post.)

Here's who JNV waffles thoroughly over:
-Wiz (Wizard well Wizard says a lot of things and doesnt say why and that bugs me but they do that as village too but also I dont know if Ive encountered evil Wizard honestly dont know - refuses a coherent Wiz read altogether)

Suppose you're JNV. You have to plan for your play next cycle, or make some attempt at doing so. You wouldn't know Wiz is preparing to smite you. I submit that of the entire list, JNV looks like they're preparing (just as they mentioned wrt to the airstrike - to push for Wiz and TUN the next day. At the moment, they've refused a coherent Wiz read, so they'd more or less be forced to go on TUN first. It could be distancing, but given thread mood with Illwei and Stick? IDK.)

Leaving TUN aside, I'll say that there are two possible reads here:

A. JNV's teammate is Illwei, and so JNV spends the most time sowing FUD in the low activity bracket and accepting the low activity hypothesis in order to misdirect the Village and leave everyone marinating in confusion.

B. JNV's teammate is one of <TUN, Turtle> and so JNV faintly praises Turtle to push them slightly above the waterline in JNV's suspect pool, or distances from TUN by IDing suspicions about TUN. I feel like JNV could've expressed more uncertainty about TUN if they were trying to distance - it's a straightforwardly negative read, past the hedgy language that saturates their post, and I'm not sure I am on board with E!TUN still.

(To be fair, I will also admit I'm making a stronger case for V!TUN here than I really necessarily feel because I'm trying to feel for the cracks on my thought process and yours, to determine where to go this Turn. I think I've talked myself out of Archer, and I'm definitely against Silho, but I guess now it's <Illwei/TUN.>)

Edited September 25, 2022 by Kasimir
pronoun, bold

[Stick.]

@Kasimir kind of in a hurry at the moment so I'll keep it brief - barring a bus (e!illwei, I suppose) the lack of defence for xino D1 points to absent teammates and that boils down to <Archer, Turtle, TUN>. I include TUN because at some point they admitted to have been absent during the crucial periods of the exe. I agree that Turtle's posts contain little actual information and the fact that they seem allergic to voting isn't helping either but the PoE is PoEing yknow. For what it's worth, I think this here:

Quote

it’s just helpful to have and gives yall info if I get nkd or lunched

should be indicative of something. My gut says this was a genuine attempt at a helpful contribution (the post feels agenda-free) but also I will admit I don't really understand what that post is trying to put out in the first place. Tone-wise, they seem alright. Not a fan of JNV's subtle defence for them though. And speaking of which - illwei. JNV accepting the low-activity team idea plus the comments favouring v!illwei do make me lean more e than before.

[The Wandering Wizard]

Archer Illwei

I'm more convinced of E!Illwei than Archer after rereading the threads. 

[Kasimir]

15 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

@Kasimir kind of in a hurry at the moment so I'll keep it brief - barring a bus (e!illwei, I suppose) the lack of defence for xino D1 points to absent teammates and that boils down to <Archer, Turtle, TUN>. I include TUN because at some point they admitted to have been absent during the crucial periods of the exe. I agree that Turtle's posts contain little actual information and the fact that they seem allergic to voting isn't helping either but the PoE is PoEing yknow. For what it's worth, I think this here:

should be indicative of something. My gut says this was a genuine attempt at a helpful contribution (the post feels agenda-free) but also I will admit I don't really understand what that post is trying to put out in the first place. Tone-wise, they seem alright. Not a fan of JNV's subtle defence for them though. And speaking of which - illwei. JNV accepting the low-activity team idea plus the comments favouring v!illwei do make me lean more e than before.

Yeah apologies, trying to work out what I think, and I trust you on posts more than I trust me on posts, so appreciate the input

Have to dash off myself, so more thoughts in a bit.

[Archer]

Working backwards, here's some initial thoughts:
--Wiz is lock village
--Generally, elims like to keep their options open. So Stick's response to my CC stands out as the most scummy, since they saw good reason to not vote me, then doubled back to try undermining the value of the gambit. It's scary to take back votes, so Sil looks good. And Mat looks ok for outright rejecting my assertion. (Sidenote: Stick is technically right to suspect that JNV might have put in the kill, which would allow e!solo!me to exist.)
--Turtle looks a bit like an Elim who is suffering from the increase in responsibilities created by the loss of a teammate. I think they wrote their post to prepare the thread for their exit, before realizing the pinch hitter was no longer available. That would explain why they would risk becoming a target of a sympathetic/pragmatic village vigilante as an elim. As Kas highlights, JNV was supportive of Turtle, so that adds to the case.
--Silhouette is mentioned so many times by JNV that my initial impression was that they were an elim exe option, which he'd be happy to switch back to suspecting later.
--If I could draw your attention to this comment by JNV as well, "Am I the only one who just doesnt get why Shqueeves was on the table". This signals to me that is was a village-dominated wagon he's trying to pass off as an elim push. Village points to Shq voters Kas, Mat, Wiz, and Sil.
-OH look, Mat voted JNV earlier. Free village cred but what the what? Y'all murdered an Elim D1 too?? That changes a lot. It also explains why I saw people assuming only one elim was left. 

Turtle is the way to go then. I know Kas intentionally excluded them for inactivity reasons, but it's potentially a layup. Given the strength of the village position, it's kind of personal preference whether you'd rather waste the discussion thusfar today and shoot a relative question mark, or risk following the logical route that might get frustrating if it turns out the question mark was the culprit all along. Having not yet fully committed to this read through, my preference is to hope for the easy out (the shot in the dark about whether or not their activity concerns are related to their Elim role, plus leaning into JNV's read of them mattering), then shift towards engaging in meatier arguments later. But I respect wanting to do it the other way round. 

[The Unknown Ajah]

Hello Archer.

I exist. Just finished reading through the thread, not really any opinions. Not the most confident on Illwei, but I'm biased in that they tried to kill me.

Edited September 25, 2022 by The Unknown Novel

[Kasimir]

5 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Hello Archer.

I exist. Just finished reading through the thread, not really any opinions. Not the most confident on Illwei, but I'm biased in that they tried to kill me.

Confident in what sense?

[The Unknown Ajah]

55 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Confident in what sense?

A roundabout way of saying neutral- (I don't like null when referring to active players).

[Turtle]

(it’s the weekend hurrah)

[insert archer quote abt my actuvity]

So my inactivity is mostly due to needing to deal with school as well as this game, and schools been worse than usual lately what with ‘look good on college applications’ being most of what I’ve been thinking about. My attention span is getting worse and I don’t think I’ll be doing any long games in the future. 
 

vil-[kas, wiz]- basically cleared imo
vil lean-[archer, mat]

 

these are my strongest reads rn, everyone else is kinda :sparkleshrug:

also why have we not seen more vote manip sorry right blessings are one use

 

edit because I messed up my copy and paste:

e lean-[shqueeves]- will look through individual posts later today I hope but read hasn’t changed a ton

shqueeves is dead, sorry! I need so much more sleep than I’m getting

 

edit 2: going through N2 rn and should have something, but I have art class rlly soon so it’ll be after that

Edited September 25, 2022 by Turtle
I’m silly- shqueeves died

[Kasimir]

4 hours ago, Archer said:

-OH look, Mat voted JNV earlier. Free village cred but what the what? Y'all murdered an Elim D1 too?? That changes a lot. It also explains why I saw people assuming only one elim was left. 

This made me laugh

3 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

A roundabout way of saying neutral- (I don't like null when referring to active players).

Cheers.

Ok. One last big push as I try to coalesce my thoughts and come to a decision. Prefacing this with the warning this is long, I try to summarise but I don't really care if people don't read this. I need to think aloud to keep my thoughts coherent, as you can see w.r.t. D1, and it's easier for me to ramble in thread since there are no PMs.

-Why Conq?

The Conq kill sort of makes sense and sort of doesn't. Conq was pretty much a consensus Village player and noisy, so on the face of it, that's a reasonable kill, but if you dig into it, Conq is not a really great kill target, for reasons I alluded to when defending myself. Conq was a Stick voter and willing to suspect Mat and Silho. Situationally, Mat is the sort of V player you normally expect to have to NK. Conq being willing to suspect Mat and Stick gives the Elims two potential faultlines to exploit for Village division. With Conq's approach to the game being what it is, I'd have expected a Mat or Illwei kill. Perhaps not Mat - living Mat means he gets to lock horns with Conq. Illwei though?

Illwei was pushing me, Silho and TUN. I'd consider Stick and Illwei to be the two main drivers behind both Silho and TUN, actually. I don't think Stick was fully on the table for the Elims - again, Conq being willing to push Stick can be exploited. But suppose Conq lives - JNV didn't die (for the Elims cannot have factored this into their planning.) Killing Illwei would remove a threat to TUN and to Silho, and without a flip, Conq clashing with Stick or Mat (remember, he suspected Mat even N2) could have been more detrimental for the Village. Removing Illwei would remove one source of conflict - me-Illwei, but Stick would also still be pushing me and as was clear from N2, I'm not exactly Village read either.

Ok. This is too messy. I'll cull this for my own benefit.

Noisy player kills:

Quote

-Conq:

Suspected: Mat, Silho, Illwei (N1), Stick
Defended: Kas, Wiz

-Illwei:

Suspected: Kas, TUN, Silho
Defended: Stick, JNV (D2 read)

-Mat:

Suspected: Kas, TUN, JNV (D2)
Defended: Silho, Wiz, Stick

-Stick:

Suspected: Kas, TUN, Silho, JNV, Conq
Defended: ???

-Kas:

Suspected: Silho
Defended: Silho, JNV, Stick, Wiz, Conq, Mat, Illwei

I define noisy player as players making a lot of noise and driving thread discussion. Italicised any views that the player was functionally uncertain about, or willing to give on. Lmk if I made any mistakes - I've read more posts than is healthy today.

Ideally, you want to be taking out the noisy people (or going low info kill but that's clearly not how this team plays.) Part of the goal is to get the noisy people squinting at each other where possible.

One explanation of the Conq kill could be that Silho is Evil, thus the team killed Conq in order to relieve pressure on Silho. I don't know I quite believe this. I agree with Archer that my sense of how grudgingly JNV was dragged towards V!Silho with some hedging in that highlighted post makes it seem more as though JNV wanted a Silho lynch and finally was sort of pushed away from it by how much Mat and I were defending Silho against Illwei and Stick.

As much as I tried to bait the kill last Night, I didn't really expect to be a target - the fact I'm conditionally or directly suspected means there is a useful faultline to exploit there. Getting rid of Conq does take out that brake, so as to speak, so there's no need to waste a NK on me. But really, the point that my alignment was in question means that taking me out helps the Village. I also defended JNV. No go.

Getting rid of Stick is similarly odd. I think we can tell from JNV that the Elims did try to push Stick - taking out Stick clears a slot of contention. Again, not a really good option for the NK as a trade-off. The thing is, knowing that JNV is Evil, you'd expect potentially a kill among those who suspected JNV, making it easier to keep JNV alive. But Mat and Stick weren't killed - Mat not being killed is very questionable, because Mat was basically widely Village-read, is a solid Village player, and was pushing JNV. Stick, I'd squint about - with Illwei backing V!Stick loudly, I think a Stick kill would make sense, but given JNV was trying to leave Stick on the tableish, IDK.

So what functions do leaving Mat and Stick untouched do? (Note: You can make the same point about Silho - for a Silho-JNV team, the question is why not kill <Illwei, Stick> - Conq does make sense for this team though, as I noted.)

My guesses:

-Can't do a low activity kill -> last (?) Elim is among the low activity players
-Have to be careful with high activity kill -> last (?) Elim is among the high activity noisy players
-JNV did not feel in danger: Kas and Illwei backing (?)
-Killed for suspicion of Illwei (??? - Conq sort of backed off of it after N1 though.)
-Killed as part of JNV's 'Xino train was clean' argument (??? - Doesn't feel right.)
-Did not regard Mat/Illwei/Stick as immediate problem. (Why? Their suspicions? Stick existing in enough of a grey area to enjoy a touch more uncertainty?)

This points me slightly more towards a high activity partner, TBH. With Conq (IMO, sorry Conq) seemingly largely caught on tangents (based off my V!Mat, V!Silho, and V!Stick credences), I don't see why you take out Conq of the <Illwei, Mat, Conq> triad of Xino voters, especially with the fact that Conq could push Mat, Stick, potentially Illwei, and that Conq would resist a ML of me, based off his reads. The argument could be that Mat was defending Silho, but Mat was also pressuring JNV somewhat, and in the world where JNV has a low activity partner, all the more JNV has to stay alive because they can't count on backup to fend Mat off. And the trade-off is that if you're a low activity team, you really can't control the noisy players except via the NK.

I guess you could argue that Mat wasn't an immediate threat, but neither was Conq, and arguably his willingness to push Mat and Stick would be a lot more helpful.

TBF, keeping Conq alive means keeping Mat alive - you want that distraction. But then why not shoot Illwei? Because of Illwei's willingness to push me? That could make sense.

IDK. But I'm leaning E!Illwei now - I accept Mat's arguments on the votecount issues and can see the possibility there (though I'm not sure this is the natural read still), and the Conq kill makes more sense with E!Illwei than E!Turtle, IMO. On an E!Turtle team, you have beautiful chaos to exploit with Conq alive.

-Shift in JNV's Reads

D1 JNV:

Spoiler

On 9/20/2022 at 8:26 AM, JNV said:

Hi hi hi sorry I missed yeseterday I was at a school thing and the wifi there blocks the shard hi 

Ok so none of the beginning votes make sense to me maybe thats cause Im really tired today but it just seems like a lot of nothing in response to nothing and like The unknown Novels thoguhts kind of rub me the wrong way but they always do that and Id honestly be more suspicious if they didnt and I feel like Sticks vote on Araris for saying why explaining happens is weird cause one explainning is good two Araris doesnt do that a lot from what I remember like dont they do the sorta stabby stabby no sadi resasons but secret mental reasons thing like they did that their first vote and all explaining things is out of character for them so if your vote was retaliation for their vote on you just say that you dont have to dress it up  and Wizards vote on Araris now feels like them but also slimy I think theyre just one of the people Ill always find slimy I guess so time to look for a good choice

All the votes cast so far

Matrim for Wizard said in post to be for poking in but not actually saying anything

The Unknown Novel fro Matrim to tie it which honestly fits the profile but just grrr

Kasimir for Stick no rason given

Illwei for The uNknown Novel no reason givn

Araris for Matrim no reason given

Sillhouette for xinoehp no reason given

Conqeustor for The Unknown Novel for actively seeking ties and I know this did tie it but like I dont think thats a strong motive so early in the cycle and if you dont vote on your suspicions cause of ties then no one will ever vote on your suspicions and yeah its funny but not evil or anything [Kas: I think this is worth looking at as well, in comparison to the later defense of Xino. JNV basically just straightforwardly defends Conq but agrees it's weird - keeping options open? We know Conq is Village, but I think it's really highlights JNV's tendency to waffle on the defense of a teammate and desire not to commit. Because notice this comment here is not actually a defense of TUN - it's a defense of Conq.]

xinoehp for wizard no reason given

Illwei for Araris no rason given

Araris for Stick no reason given 

Stick for Araris for needing to clarify why explaining and I kinda addressed this in that big paragraph up top but like Araris doesnt explain things explaining is abnormal for them  pushing against it just seems kinda wierd like yeah expalnation isnt normal you said its normal then you say Illweis MO is not explaining things like you cant argue both ways well you can but then youre fighting yourself [Kas: My read is that manufacturing reasons for suspicions is hard for a D1 Elim. RIP JNV :P]

Shqueeves for Conquestor for the tie thing and for getting RP names mixed up and this reasons kinda weak honestly but at least the reasoning exists [Kas: Another straight forward evaluation. They just call the reasoning weak.]

Wizard for Araris no reason given

Kasimir votes Matrim for making strange claims presumably wanting an explanation but technically nothing stated and honestly kinda agree with Matrim about the weirdness of the immediate retaliation vote considering the recent orange thing and my perceived uselessness of a question with a vote vs jsut a question [Kas: Did I step out of the Waffle House? Because this isn't actually a waffle! JNV puts their foot down!]

Shqueeves gets off Conquestor

Matrim votes xinoehp for lack of better options I guess which is kinda weird cause the only vote for xinoehp is a no reasons given and xinoehp hasnt really done much I mean they said they kinda agreed with Stick so maybe thats why  [Kas: I think this is worth looking at - JNV lightly defends Xino here by questioning the reason for Mat's vote. It's waffly, yes, but they do call it out nonetheless. I think it's a take to keep in mind when looking at how JNV defends people.]

So in conclusion Stick 

Significant reduction in waffly language compared to the N2 post. I think it's worth noting where JNV takes firm stances and where JNV waffles: JNV waffles when defending Xino and attacking Stick, and uses fairly firm language when negatively evaluating Shqueeves's vote on Conq, defending Conq's vote on TUN, and negatively evaluating my vote of Mat.

Also worth noting that JNV lightly applies sus to TUN and then also takes it back in the same line. They aren't this waffly later on. Similar tactic with Wiz.

N1:

No post from JNV.

D2:

Spoiler

Post #1:

On 9/22/2022 at 1:03 PM, JNV said:

Did you not read my post Stick argued Araris was overexplaining cause explaining is an inherent part of SE but also saying Illwei not explaining is theri MO and laso saying Araris wasnt explaining enough and it just felt disingenouous and I didnt really like any of the other vote options cause all of them felt like they were just existing instead of targeting strange behavior oh I think thats whats wrong with my evildar it detects weird behavior but weird isnt necessarily evil ok note to future self recalibrate that

Hi sorry I had like four tests this week and havent really had a ton of time to get on but anyway a lot of the votes for xinoehp just feel sorta there like they dont really have anything behind they they dont really have any support like Silhouette said it was just a why not sorta thing you wanted Araris to live Araris was trying to live Conquestor was trying to have a signifiicant vote instead of voting on an actual suspicion and I notice that Novel suspicion just dropped off hmmmmmmmm and Illwei well I never get Illwei and besides those last second votes felt really unnecessary honestly like the guy was already dead was there really no better place to put that vote no thinking about suspicions no substance just toss on a vote on a dead guy Conquestor feels slimy off that but they always feel slimy I dont know why and honestly my brain is just mush right now and everyone is a blob of confusion sorry I havent really been paying a ton of attention to the game [Kas: I sympathise with the amount of Elim salt in here :P. But also, I think it's worth noting JNV has consistently gone after TUN twice now, brushed Illwei off briefly, and complains about the votes on Xino being empty, and now goes back to susing Conq after fairly straightforwardly defending Conq. I can see the E!TUN worries here that it's distancing since JNV is going after TUN but also not committedly doing so. Note the 'eh' about Illwei - their view changes later on the same post.]

[...]

Matrim I mean my main sticking point with them is how they voted xinoehp out of 'save Araris' thoughts but didnt say why Stick or The uNknown Novel were lelss good cause of all the options xinoehp had actually no reasoning behind it and that bugs me and then willfully abandon their case against Kasimir which appeared to be founded in some level of reason for a useless vote on xinoehp again like they were already going to die what did that vote even do but tonally and thought process wise beyond xinoehp they feel pretty smooth I think Ive ended upw with my tpical default on them of vaguely positive feelings [Kas: V!reads Mat, Xino vote salt.]

Novel I mean I always end up suspecting Novel its a bit of a thing but they havent done anything Id consider actually evil but also they havnt done anything Id consider actually good so I guess null but also just confused [Kas: Waffles on TUN again. This after noting that TUN suspicion dropped off.]

Wizard just feels like cotton candy honestly lots of fluff but when you rinse it out its all gone a bit of presence a bit of comedy but like they havent done anything [Kas: No real concrete position on Wiz, but a walkdown from calling Wiz 'slimy' D1.] 

Stick honestly not over Sticks whole Araris case but most of their stuff has seemed decent [Kas: Overall positive on Stick, with some doubt in reserve. IMO, all the more striking given JNV will subsequently go on to vote Stick.]

Shqueeeves is kinda like Wizard theyve existed but when you really look at it theyve done absoluely nothing [Kas: A position I sympathise with, if a bit more of a push on Shqueeves than quite true - Shqueeves did vote and pressure Conq D1 before retracting. Absolutely nothing is harsh and makes me wonder if JNV was opportunistically following the thread move onto Shqueeves just a bit - Mat, myself, Turtle, Conq (at least) all mentioned Shqueeves on the preceding page.]

Conquestor for some reason I always end up suspecting Conqeustor dont know why nothing against you youre a lovely person it just happens I feel like your Matrim case is a bit overstated but thats not really an evil thing [Kas: Conq waffle!]

Silhouette I think the way silhouette thinks about the game and the way I think about the game are kind of different and that dissonance is confusing me [Kas: This isn't a waffle either, but it does say basically nothing.]

Symphonian honestly forgot they were playing this game um let me go look at what theyve been doing ok they havent done anything cool cool cool [Kas: I don't know if I'd call this a waffle because Symph didn't do anything beyond one post and I'm salty about trying to read from it :P.]

Kasimir I kind of just always trust Kasimir and thatll probably come back to bite me some day but honestly cant see their actions as evil Kasimir cause theyd probably be at least a little more careful [Kas: Awww...]

Turtle seems to have a weird idea of what distancing is and the way they said that the thing isnt alignment indicative or anything and is just info when its stuff anyone could have gotten its just cotton candy again and its probably my faulty evildar here giving me bad vibes but theres just some weird vibes [Kas: Waffles solidly on Turtle.]

Illwei Ive actually been feeling pretty good about Illwei this game which is kinda weird honestly but oh well theyve been contributing theyve been helpful relatively content to just let it sit [Kas: Moves from a ??? Illwei read to a V!Illwei read in the same post.]

On one hand Shinings tone and stuff pings my evildar like crazy on the other hand I thought that last time I played with them and they feel kinda the same and I can kinda understand their worldview if I squint maybe possible on the thirds ecret hand its Stick pointing it out and I dont think I can get over stick on the fourth hand I cant get on tomorrow I have a school thing on the fifth hand I am actually falling asleep case in point I fell asleep two hours ago in a chair and just woke up so Im just generally useless right now Ill see if I can get on tomorrow well see [Kas: Shining waffle emerges here, so it wasn't a null read, not quite. Earlier considers Stick kinda Village and walks it back in the same post as well.]

Post #2:

On 9/23/2022 at 6:45 AM, JNV said:

Hi Im writing this quickly on mobile cause Im out on a school thing for the rest of today and wont be able to get on sorry so Im just quickly going to respond to questions to me and I cant figure out how to get lots of quotes on mobile so just line by line

Illwei I dont think it makes you evil itd be a weird evil move its just weird and youre actually feeling smooth this game

Kasimir I didnt vote in that post cause I fell asleep at my keyboard and woke up at like 1 and decided Id just post what I have and I didnt really touch on the votes cause Matrims was just spice on a question and yours had nothing to argue against its a reasonable vote 

Conquestor you dint have to change your style for me I need to just get used to it

So on to what I came on for the vote I consider Silhouette a no go for mostly the same reasons as everyone else plus Im trying to separate weird behavior and evil behavior and I dont think theyd be talking about how theyd look bad as evil Shaueeves doesnt really seem like anything like I dont really have a feeling one way or another I woildnt be incredibly shocked if theyre evil but not from what theyve done so far Turtle well I feel like Turtles a bit more present then usual but I dont want to punish a player for a positive shift and besides it doesnt feel evil per se just different now Stick of all the people Sticks been the wobbliest and its kind of the Silhouette vote thats sealing it for me like not even bothering to consider the logistics of evil Silhouette just throwing the vote down and the only thing making me hesitate is the lack of self pres but tentatively Stick and now I have to go bye bye see you next turn [Kas: Walks back Silho with more waffling, but I think it's crucial to note this happens after the thread mood shifts - IMO, JNV should sus E!Shining lightly anyway. The thread mood defending Silho (or at least me and Mat doing so) means Silho likely will not be flipped and they get to get some Village credit or distance if/when Silho does flip. Half-takes back the Turtle sus again, and that Stick vote is sheer ??? as they flip from 'mostly good' to 'I can't get over Stick' to 'Stick has been the wobbliest of all the people' in the same cycle. I'm preaching to the choir, I know, but I'm alright with V!Silho and alright with V!Stick. I note that TUN doesn't show up at all in this post - unclear if JNV was being opportunist or not, but again, if JNV was distancing, why not push TUN at this point? With Silho, Shqueeves, and themselves in the main pool, TUN was not in real danger of being lynched. Shqueeves doesn't show up either. So why does Turtle come up? It might not be glaringly weird - Turtle was being discussed. But JNV clearly didn't feel the need to talk about Shqueeves or TUN, so it's curious to me they wanted to talk about Turtle.]

JNV begins to open a Waffle House. To be clear, I think JNV has incentive to waffle one way or another - they don't want to be caught pushing a Villager ML, but they also don't want to be caught defending an Elim too strongly. Which puts me in a bit of an awkward position as JNV is fairly clear about V!reading me and Illwei, a tiny bit more hedgy about Mat, and very hedgy about Conq.

Something I note - they have no issues voting on Stick (I've discussed the implications before) and the fact their view of Stick shifts so much with no evident reason makes me think it was a view of convenience, i.e. V!Stick. Yes, yes, so helpful Kas. I told y'all I can't read posts .__. I am vote analysis guy. It simpler.

Ok. Well, I feel the omission of TUN is significant - you could argue JNV left TUN out because TUN is their teammate and they don't want to call attention to TUN, but I think that if you believe JNV was distancing on TUN, this would be the time to sus TUN again! TUN wasn't in danger of dying, not with the <JNV, Stick, Silho, Shqueeves> discussion raging on, not with Mat and me kinda squinting and being willing to sorta V TUN and vote dilution is decent for an Elim team.

Kinda same deal with Silho. You could argue JNV's views on Silho changed because the thread was now looking seriously into Silho, but I do have other reasons for thinking V!Silho, as discussed.

Turtle coming up is just as interesting - it's a soft defense of Turtle right when Illwei has been putting some pressure on Turtle.

N2:

Spoiler

On 9/24/2022 at 8:36 AM, JNV said:

Am I the only one who just doesnt get why Shqueeves was on the table at all cause like Silhouette had good and bad and thats why it was confusing Stick was eh but not incredibly weird and thats why it was confusing but Shqueeves just didnt seem to have good or bad I dont really get it like I read Kasimirs post about it a few times I dont know [Kas: Potentially good catch from Archer, but am divided - JNV complains about the Shqueeves train. I don't know if I'd take it to necessarily be meaningful, as I notice that JNV has a pattern of not grokking voting without an explicit tight case, and I think it maps onto the pattern of JNV's issues with the Xino train. I don't think it significantly matters to me though as I'm fine with V!Silho, V!Mat, V!Wiz, and V!Kas.]

Ok i know these ideas arent mutually exclusive but they feel mutually exclusive cause there was a push on Shqueeves on the end there but if Stick is village theres no motive for that so the only location for evils would be at the beginning but the problem with that is I think Ill just always diehard trust Kasimir thats a problem and Im working on it and look Silhoeutte feels weird but tone is hard and I dont feel like weird tone is evil tone necessarily if anything itd be well not reverse but at least orthagonal and I think I havent bee npaying enough attention to the game honestly I feel lost and its just night 2 and Silhouette is just out there like opinions I dont agree with conclusions I wouldnt draw but Im also trying to work on not voting off everything weird cause weird isnt always evil and theres merit to village Silhoeutte but I dont know

Two worlds one with evil on Shqueeves one without

So in the world without evil on Shqueeves that clears everyone there plus kind of implies the evils didnt care about the vote which implies village Stick 

The pool of everyone not on Shqueeves is Novel Stick Conquestor Symphonian Turtle Illwei 

Taking out Stick for previously mentioned reasons  so then its  Novel Conquestor  Symphonian Turtle Illwei 

I dont really see Illweis xinoehp vote in an evil Illwei world same iwth Conquestors xinoehp vote so it becomsee Novel Symphonian Turtle the people who are just blobs of confusion in my head -> [Kas note here: They seem to defend V!Illwei, FWIW. This is also more explicit commitment to V!Conq than we've seen out of D1 and D2 JNV - they defended Conq straightforwardly earlier but used waffly language, and the Illwei case is made by tying it to the V!Conq case, which makes me wonder if Conq's death is supposed to increase V!Illwei credences.]

So in the world with evil on Shqueeves it kind of implies evil Stick cause otherwise why care but Ill split it into two worlds [Kas: This is an interesting statement. JNV asserts that if there is someone Evil on Shqueeves, then Stick has to be Evil. But that's a bit ??? because why can't the Evil players just hide there? If you have E!Silho thoughts, I suppose you might squint at this. Otherwise, I think it could be JNV trying to nudge the Evil Stick theories a bit harder again - "you all accept Evil on Shqueeves so you should accept E!Stick." But I'll agree it could be trying to get off a connected ML via E!Silho.]

So world where Stick is evil and has a teammate on Shqueeves the Shqueeves voters are Matrim Wizard Silhouette Kasimir based on Matrims xinoehp interactions I dont see it and honestly I could feel similarly about Silhouette but the way silhouette thinks seems very different from the way I think so erring on the side of caution and leaving them in and like 2 hours before rollover D1 Kasimir was online a vote count was fresh the three way tie was obvious and no effort is made not even a preference for a theoretically evil Stick over the one shot kill xinoehp so thats out leaving Wizard and Silhouette and Ill look at those later too

In the world where Stick isnt evil and theres evil on Shqueeves honestly the same argumnets apply to Matrim and Kasimir i guess this split was useless oh well so just ignore the split  [Kas: JNV comes to the same conclusion. The split doesn't strongly matter - it's actually a one-way conditional, if E!Stick, likely Evil on Shqueeves, rather than the other way around.]

Symphonians just sorta not around so Im ignoring them lets see what replacs them

The Unknown NOvel well I dont really know theyre just sorta there but I dont like their recent statement about Silhouette not that I disagree cause I agree somewhat but the way they just mention the Kasimir argument wahtever especially coming after Kasimirs good rebuttal seems like its sorta riding coattails if you know what I mean saying something easy to say just to seem like youve said something and overall they havent said much at l  Kas note here: Throws shade on TUN.

Turtle has been seeming weird but weirdly active honestly and kinda feels like Silhouette a bit like talking perpendicularly sorta thing like skew lines not paralel but never touching either but also nothing like Silhouette just kinda simiar by being different from what I expect but they also havent done anything vote wise honestly so leaning kind of hmm for them but like theyve been trying thats nice thats good I feel like thats a good change

With Stick well Stick feels less wobbly but still just a bit but I think its time to broaden the pool of evil especially given how xinoehp death implies low active team like I think Id vote them before Silhouette but theyre not my first choice tomorrow [Kas note here: Willing to accept the low activity team. Walks back Stick a little. Might indicate more active teammate. Something I didn't notice earlier: JNV says it's time to broaden the pool of Evil. Possible paving for a pivot to other targets, e.g. Wiz, TUN? (I don't see this move to broaden the suspect pool as a defense of E!Silho because JNV also explicitly says they will vote Stick before Silho.)]

Wizard well Wizard says a lot of things and doesnt say why and that bugs me but they do that as village too but also I dont know if Ive encountered evil Wizard honestly dont know

Silhouette well weve talked about silhouette a lot and honestly the xinoehp vote has me somewhat convinced ish maybe in them as not evil probably so basically my mind says probably vllage my heart is protesting  [Kas: If you're on E!Silho, then you might think this line is basically JNV reluctantly climbing down on Silho but preparing themselves for a little credit if Silho is flipped. I do read it more as reluctantly climbing down on Silho but leaving their options open if possible.]

If anyone has potency blessing maybe take a shot at Novel or Wizard the complete black boxes or maybe dont so we can make them waste any protection they have or do it or dont confuse them make it hard to tell  [Kas: Long story short, Stick and I disagree about how to read this and that's fine. I see this as opportunistically climbing onto the sus of V!TUN and calling for an airstrike since it's cheap and performative. Stick sees this as cheap distancing. I don't disagree it could be, but I think that JNV more or less just sort of passes up cheap distancing opportunities earlier, so I'm not as sold on this.]

I mean Im kinda against deciding who were voting the night before out of principle to leave ourselves open to more options and reevaluation to make sure we dont let evils hide in the vote by just clumping on a guy but Im ok with The Unknown Novel as an option to vote on [Kas: I feel an Elim has to be more concerned with optics. Anyone who doesn't say that first bit would have to be worried about looking Evil.]

I've noted my thoughts previously, but expanded on them. The main takeaways: significant waffly language. There's an explicit defense of Illwei, and for the first time, an explicit defense of Conq that's tied to their defense of Illwei. For that same reason, JNV exonerates Mat at last in more unambiguous language, though rather than highlighting Mat's vote on Xino, they talk about Mat's interactions with Xino. I'm minded to think the Conq defense might explain/motivate the Conq kill, but this is strictly theorising and I don't feel remotely comfortable with this as a guess.

I think it's also noteworthy that the most positive thing JNV has to say of their pool is on Turtle.

Main takeaways, aka 'Sir This Is A Wendy's':

-Significant use of waffly language when defending Xino and creating reads - this means that attention is automatically drawn to where JNV doesn't waffle.

JNV doesn't waffle when: lightly defending Conq (D1), when negatively evaluating Shqueeve's vote on Conq (D1), when negatively evaluating my vote on Mat (D1), Kas positive read (D2), Illwei positive read (D2), TUN negative read (N2), Conq positive read (N2), Illwei positive read (N2), Mat positive read (N2), Kas positive read (N2).

JNV does waffle when: questioning the reason for Mat's third vote on Xino (D1), voting Stick (D1), TUN read (D1), Wiz read (D1), defending D1 Stick vote (D2), Illwei read (D2), Conq read (D2 x2), TUN read (D2), Turtle read (D2 x2), Silho read (D2), Stick read (D2), Silho read (N2 x3), Turtle read (N2), Stick read (N2), Wiz read (N2).

Of these occasions, I think two incidents stand out to me most:

First, JNV shifts from a neutral view on Illwei to a positive read of Illwei within the same post:

Exhibit A:

Quote

Illwei well I never get Illwei

Exhibit B:

Quote

Illwei Ive actually been feeling pretty good about Illwei this game which is kinda weird honestly but oh well theyve been contributing theyve been helpful relatively content to just let it sit

Note that JNV basically bases this read off being helpful and contributing - while Conq and Mat just don't get as positive language despite arguably filling the same niche as noisy threadpeople who also voted Xino.

Second, JNV lightly suses Turtle, and immediately revises to a mildly positive read as soon as Turtle posts some analysis. This is a really low threshold:

So, Turtle made a pair of posts early into D2:

JNV's resulting read on Turtle:

On 9/22/2022 at 1:03 PM, JNV said:

Turtle seems to have a weird idea of what distancing is and the way they said that the thing isnt alignment indicative or anything and is just info when its stuff anyone could have gotten its just cotton candy again and its probably my faulty evildar here giving me bad vibes but theres just some weird vibes

There's some sus and waffling on Turtle. Shortly after, Turtle makes a post doing some fairly perfunctory analysis.

This is JNV's response where Turtle is concerned:

On 9/23/2022 at 6:45 AM, JNV said:

Turtle well I feel like Turtles a bit more present then usual but I dont want to punish a player for a positive shift and besides it doesnt feel evil per se just different now

That's still fairly positive. JNV just upped and 180-ed in response to that one post?

I'll be fair that this is more analysis that Wiz (correct me if wrong) had put out until EoD D2. And TUN and Shqueeves didn't really do anything. JNV also made the Stick train a three-player train, rather than shuffle elsewhere. 

 

---

tldr;

In summation: after agonising and using the thread as my repeated thought scratching post (sorry), where I'm at is between <Illwei, Turtle.>

I'm going to be honest. N2-D3 Illwei creeps into TWTBAW territory for me a bit. But since I know my own alignment, I have to note that Illwei smuggled JNV into Village reads D2 alongside TUN (whom she then pushed to kill D3 on N2) despite what is honestly a ??? D2 from JNV. Like yes, okay - you can argue I'm confbiasing and I acknowledge I might very well be since I'm re-reading with knowledge of JNV's alignment. But I don't see how a post reader like Illwei skips past all the raw FUD in JNV's post and @s me about my progression on Mat and her, but doesn't question that happening for JNV.

I also think that JNV's willingness to give Turtle a positive read after a brief analysis post doesn't really feel right to me - it feels like the sort of choreographed contact where you get your teammate to show up and then give them a more positive read. But then, I don't know that's the right assessment of the situation - there's no real poke vote, and Illwei is the one who applied pressure to Turtle via a poke vote so IDK if it really feels like distancing me because there's no real impetus - JNV could've just read Turtle more positively from the start since Turtle already showed up in response to Illwei. They're responding to a disconnected post from Turtle subsequently. IDK I feel strongly about this, but I am slightly more inclined to go V!Turtle on this.

I recognise JNV willing to be this positive about me is extremely awkward for me  I think I balance it with the knowledge that JNV does have a tendency to V!read me, yeah, and as I mentioned, the offer to take the lynch if we need me flipped so we can move on and get down to business to defeat the Huns.

Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders. Gott helfe mir.

Kas Illwei.

So based off the current votecount, I guess I'm down for letting Sart show up to pinch-hit for Turtle.

Edited to add 2:

Fridge thought, or I guess night ayran thought: I think the better way to express what I'm getting at with the Conq NK - taking out Conq leaves a fairly united group of noisy Villagers. With the exception of me (and a ML of me is fine for the Elims), Illwei, Mat, and Stick don't substantially suspect each other. Sure, Conq V!read me, but apart from that, taking out Conq has a net positive effect on noisy Village unity.

Why does JNV think this is a great kill in an E!Turtle world?

The simple answer: Village unity isn't really unity. Someone is compromised. And that, IMO, has to point to E!Illwei more than E!Turtle.

Edited to add:

Kas after reading too many posts and going around in circles trying to figure if he suspects Illwei or Turtle more:

Spoiler

 

Edited September 25, 2022 by Kasimir

[Shining Silhouette]

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Here's who JNV has strong opinions about:
-V!Illwei
-V!me
-V!Mat
- TUN ("The Unknown NOvel well I dont really know theyre just sorta there but I dont like their recent statement about Silhouette not that I disagree cause I agree somewhat but the way they just mention the Kasimir argument wahtever especially coming after Kasimirs good rebuttal seems like its sorta riding coattails if you know what I mean saying something easy to say just to seem like youve said something and overall they havent said much at l" -This is fairly unvarnished. They accuse TUN of being opportunistic.)

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

First, JNV shifts from a neutral view on Illwei to a positive read of Illwei within the same post

..................

Note that JNV basically bases this read off being helpful and contributing - while Conq and Mat just don't get as positive language despite arguably filling the same niche as noisy threadpeople who also voted Xino.

Since JNV has very few strong opinions, I think the opinions that he does make should be heavily taken into account. I agree with his opinions of V!Mat and V!Kas though I feel like E!JNV would put a teammate up there- especially after being down Coinshot E!Xino D1.

21 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But if Illwei’s village, then where are the elims? There has to be a point eventually where, as usual, something vaguely irrational is actually what happened. Assuming otherwise makes for a very boring D1 which I suppose is possible but with the way the trains were moving doesn’t feel right to me.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

But I don't see how a post reader like Illwei skips past all the raw FUD in JNV's post and @s me about my progression on Mat and her, but doesn't question that happening for JNV.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

The simple answer: Village unity isn't really unity. Someone is compromised. And that, IMO, has to point to E!Illwei more than E!Turtle.

All good points. 

Illwei

Edited September 25, 2022 by Shining Silhouette
claification

[---]

Oh another classic case of me leaving thread and then getting voted up lol

I have had a busy last 2 days and I have to be somewhere in 2 hours (it's a holiday) So there's really no point in anything. I'll just say that I read like nothing on this page but I didn't defend Jnv at all, I put him at the bottom of a tierlist with TUN, and that's like, my only thing on him that I voiced in thread I think, if anything else it would have been a comment on my wanting to kill him because that's how I was feeling mostly before.

Anyways it gets really tiring when all your village reads think you're an Elim- sometimes it's just easier to try and village read those who do.

I don't have time to say anything and no one will have time to engage with me anyways so it doesn't really matter, wtv. I've already used my blessing so wtv.

Edited September 25, 2022 by Illwei

[Mat]

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I'll just say that I read like nothing on this page but I didn't defend Jnv at all, I put him at the bottom of a tierlist with TUN, and that's like, my only thing on him that I voiced in thread I think

This isn’t exactly the bottom, to be fair :P.