Long Game 89: Blessings of Metal

[Mat]

46 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Is it possible that there are two elim coinshots?

Less likely than two village for sure. If Archer’s a Coinshot I bet he’s village.

[Shining Silhouette]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Less likely than two village for sure. If Archer’s a Coinshot I bet he’s village.

What about three village

[Mat]

39 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

What about three village

You’re not claiming Coinshot, I hope >>

[Stick.]

I can maybe see the elim team having 2 coinshots if all members are low-actives/lesser-experienced considering we’ve already had 2 village protect roles. That could explain why they didn’t fight so hard for Xino.

My thoughts in detail can be found in last turn’s thread but here’s where I’m at: Wiz is solidly village, Mat and Kas I’m still leaning village albeit not as strong as last cycle. <TUN, Turtle, Shining, Archer> is where the my suspicions lie mostly. If Archer can get turtle’s flip then great, since I don’t think there’s much we can get off an exe discussion on them. I still very much do not see sufficient reasoning to clear Shining but I still need to properly read the last two pages from last turn so I’ll be doing that soon 

Will point out that e!TUN could just use the elim kill on somebody and simultaneously protect that player for village cred  

[Shining Silhouette]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You’re not claiming Coinshot, I hope >>

Well, I'm just thinking, there were 14 original players and 4 different Blessings, so there should be an average of 3.5 players per Blessing, if you do the math. In my headcanon, I was thinking that there'd be roughly four of each Blessing, and it makes sense to me. Is it too crazy to consider a game with four coinshots, one elim and three village? Or even more terrifying, two elim and two village? I can't really comment on how this works distro-wise though. @Kasimir, any comments?

The reason I bring this up is because I think it's safer to assume we're dealing with 6-2 odds rather than 7-1. It's definitely possible we've seen some e/e interactions but haven't noticed it because we've assumed one elim left. We should keep our eyes open to the worse scenario rather than assuming that because distro, we're only dealing with one.

And fwiw, If Archer's a Coinshot, chances are he's Vil as I don't see Archer falsely roleclaiming- the reaction to the rules clarification seemed genuine to me. So I'm leaning Vil for Archer at this point.

I think we have a solid village core, though with <Me, Mat, Wiz> and probably Kas. Maybe Stick/Archer as well. We have a good list of PoEs in <Turtle, TUN> and I'm thinking that @Archer we should just go for it as we can't really confirm V roles mechanically.

As far as my reads go:

Wiz, Mat

Kas

Archer, Stick

TUN, Turtle

With those to the right being slightly more suspicious.

[Mat]

In my experience, roles are rarely divided evenly because that’s bad for balance  So if you’re not claiming Coinshot then no, I don’t think there’s three village ones. Kinda hesitating about there being three at all

[Shining Silhouette]

Actually I'll claim Coinshot

Earlier I made a big scenario tree of what could happen if Archer and I killed <Two Suspects> but then it got too complicated and lots of the branches were risky, so I decided not to claim. But after thinking about it it's probably better to claim so the village can have more informed info.

So if V!CoinshotArcher (which I'm leaning at the moment), we almost definitely have another two elims I think. I'm trying to decide if Archer and I just go for it and kill some of the suspects to potentially win the game because there's not really a way to prove our roles. 

Thoughts?

@Matrim's Dice

@The Wandering Wizard

@Kasimir

@Archer

[Mat]

I'll be honest, the last thing I need right now are roleclaims that go heavily against my idea of a balanced distro >>

@Archer what do you think about Shining's claim?

And Kas please weigh in some opinions

Edited September 26, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Archer]

Huh. That's a totally unnecessary fake claim for e!Sil to make. I wasn't planning to mention this until after the Night round, because information given away now benefits the elims and we could, you know, just wait until tomorrow. Anyway, I am not a coinshot. The plan was to force e!Turtle into the position of needing to negotiate with me to avoid their death, which would be elim-indicative. Or if they embraced it, probably village indicative. I wanted a read either way. Alternatively, I was thought saying I was about to be village cleared for taking a Night action would lead a crafty non-Turtle-elim towards NKing me, because I'd be a problem later while being less likely that Mat or Wiz to recieve protection. None of that worked out. 

But now that you've gone and claimed, Sil, we're in a tricky spot. One, you're a prime kill target because you have a villagery role and unilateral kill power. A smart elim will kill you to avoid getting sniped. A very smart elim will leave you alive because they need the mis-kill to have a chance. But you're on their radar now for sure. 

Two, please don't assume 2 living elims are left. Maybe this leads you to guess an elim protection role, but it's not 3 village coinshots to 1 elim coinshot. Sorry for the confusion. 

I'm getting villagery vibes from the two claimers this round (three if you count Mat), so my shortlist is now Turtle, Stick. I'll add myself to the suspect pool because as Stick pointed out, JNV could have submitted the kill. So we're looking at something like:

NK: Sil.    Coinshot: Turtle

Exe: Stick

NK: Wiz

Exe: Me

NK: Mat

Exe: tied for e!TUN or e!Kas to win. Not bad. 

 

 

Edit: I haven't RPed yet. Uhhh

AarChur was having indigestion problems. "Bleh!" they said, blobbily. 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Archer

[Mat]

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

so my shortlist is now Turtle, Stick.

Kas had some good posts last turn of why Stick is village. Here, I'll actually just go grab a quote:

Quote

At around 2.5 hours to rollover, JNV votes for Stick. I'm not entertaining E!Stick anymore. This is a lot of nonchalance if Stick is Village. This solidifies the Stick train. Stick is Village, end of.

Found in this post, more detailed stuff in there. But I agree.

[Turtle]

reads rn:
 

Wiz: killed jnv, basically clear unless it was like, conq who

Kas- lots of interaction n stuff, in a game where the remaining elim(s) are probably inactive or were at least inactive earlier I say vil

Mat- ugh mat is always hard for me to read. Vibes diffrient from the QF I specced though so tentative vil

TUO- for the same reasons im reading kas as vil tuo is a bit sus to me

Stick-jnv interactions make them seem v/e imo

Shining-claimed coinshot and I don’t really see two coinshot on the elim team unless there’s only one elim left

Archer-seems pretty v so far tone wise 

I think? Also this isn’t in any particular order

Shining/Archer not e/e

tell me if I missed someone/included a dead player and I’ll edit it

 

[Mat]

Just now, Turtle said:

tell me if I missed someone/included a dead player and I’ll edit it

So everyone is village for you except for TUN?

[The Unknown Ajah]

1 minute ago, Turtle said:

conq who

Can't be Conq, Conq was stability, not potency. 

[Turtle]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

So everyone is village for you except for TUN?

like, depending on certain things? I don’t have a great idea of how a lot of yall play as elim and so when I say someone’s clear/not clear for activity/tone it might not mean a ton. That being said the elims this game seem sort of inactive so it definitely has merit. Also sorry for writing tuo that was definitely meant to say tun 

Just now, The Unknown Novel said:

Can't be Conq, Conq was stability, not potency. 

Ohhhhh true oops, then wiz is clear 

archer’s post reminded me I haven’t done any rp either so here this is lol

TurTaal woke up from his sleep, wondering where he’d put his flute. Maybe it was in his suitcase.

[The Unknown Ajah]

48 minutes ago, Turtle said:

like, depending on certain things? I don’t have a great idea of how a lot of yall play as elim and so when I say someone’s clear/not clear for activity/tone it might not mean a ton. That being said the elims this game seem sort of inactive so it definitely has merit. Also sorry for writing tuo that was definitely meant to say tun 

Ohhhhh true oops, then wiz is clear 

It's fine, any of TUO/TUA/TUN/Order/Aon/Novel works . 

Excepting DGG of course (made that up myself).

[Turtle]

10 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

It's fine, any of TUO/TUA/TUN/Order/Aon/Novel works . 

Excepting DGG of course (made that up myself).

What about ‘the unknown”?

[The Unknown Ajah]

17 minutes ago, Turtle said:

What about ‘the unknown”?

Never had someone call me that yet, but I've seen all the others. Someone has just called me Unknown before, but that was really confusing. 

[The Wandering Wizard]

2 hours ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Actually I'll claim Coinshot

Earlier I made a big scenario tree of what could happen if Archer and I killed <Two Suspects> but then it got too complicated and lots of the branches were risky, so I decided not to claim. But after thinking about it it's probably better to claim so the village can have more informed info.

So if V!CoinshotArcher (which I'm leaning at the moment), we almost definitely have another two elims I think. I'm trying to decide if Archer and I just go for it and kill some of the suspects to potentially win the game because there's not really a way to prove our roles. 

Thoughts?

If you are V!Coinshot, take the shot before you are NK this turn. I always read NK as nuked.... Nevermind, but take the shot tonight or you won't have a chance to take it.

 

RP I suppose: WiiZaad sat in his house waiting, for the shadows to move. He had always waited ever since the time the shadows had broken his body. WiiZaad shivered, he had taken the shot and now he waited for death himself to greet him.

[Shining Silhouette]

8 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

If you are V!Coinshot, take the shot before you are NK this turn. I always read NK as nuked.... Nevermind, but take the shot tonight or you won't have a chance to take it.

Oh the turn ends tonight! For some reason I thought I had until tomorrow.

Do I go for turtle?

[The Wandering Wizard]

48 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Oh the turn ends tonight! For some reason I thought I had until tomorrow.

Do I go for turtle?

Who ever you think is most likely elim. I'd say, just don't say here, give them a little IKYK.

[Mat]

TUN claims to have protection, which adds another layer of IKYK to everything since they’re probably my number two elim pick but there’s a chance you have some security there, Shining. Follow your instincts, after playing two games with you I already know they’re good ones  

[Turtle]

Um so regardless of the current discussion on whether or not to kill me I wanted to point out that I’m like, never gonna be around for rollover in this game which is kinda sad but ah well :((

being attacked and but being protected shows up as “attacked but survived”, right?

edit: 770 posts that’s kinda cool I’ll mention when I get to 777

Edited September 26, 2022 by Turtle
770

[Ashbringer]

Three-ish hours to go, everyone!

[Shining Silhouette]

Elim thoughts on TUN:

On 9/18/2022 at 4:27 PM, xinoehp512 said:

Maybe slight sus towards TUN for his attitude towards ties but it was the second post in the cycle he didn't exactly have much of a choice. :P.

On 9/19/2022 at 8:26 PM, JNV said:

The unknown Novels thoguhts kind of rub me the wrong way but they always do that and Id honestly be more suspicious if they didnt

On 9/19/2022 at 8:26 PM, JNV said:

The Unknown Novel fro Matrim to tie it which honestly fits the profile but just grrr

On 9/22/2022 at 1:03 AM, JNV said:

Novel I mean I always end up suspecting Novel its a bit of a thing but they havent done anything Id consider actually evil but also they havnt done anything Id consider actually good so I guess null but also just confused

On 9/23/2022 at 8:36 PM, JNV said:

If anyone has potency blessing maybe take a shot at Novel or Wizard the complete black boxes or maybe dont so we can make them waste any protection they have or do it or dont confuse them make it hard to tell 

On 9/23/2022 at 8:36 PM, JNV said:

I mean Im kinda against deciding who were voting the night before out of principle to leave ourselves open to more options and reevaluation to make sure we dont let evils hide in the vote by just clumping on a guy but Im ok with The Unknown Novel as an option to vote on 

Elim thoughts on Stick:

On 9/19/2022 at 8:26 PM, JNV said:

Stick for Araris for needing to clarify why explaining and I kinda addressed this in that big paragraph up top but like Araris doesnt explain things explaining is abnormal for them  pushing against it just seems kinda weird like yeah expalnation isnt normal you said its normal then you say Illweis MO is not explaining things like you cant argue both ways well you can but then youre fighting yourself

On 9/19/2022 at 8:26 PM, JNV said:

I feel like Sticks vote on Araris for saying why explaining happens is weird cause one explainning is good two Araris doesnt do that a lot

On 9/22/2022 at 1:03 AM, JNV said:

Stick honestly not over Sticks whole Araris case but most of their stuff has seemed decent

On 9/22/2022 at 6:45 PM, JNV said:

Stick of all the people Sticks been the wobbliest and its kind of the Silhouette vote thats sealing it for me like not even bothering to consider the logistics of evil Silhouette just throwing the vote down and the only thing making me hesitate is the lack of self pres but tentatively Stick and now I have to go bye bye see you next turn

On 9/23/2022 at 8:36 PM, JNV said:

With Stick well Stick feels less wobbly but still just a bit but I think its time to broaden the pool of evil especially given how xinoehp death implies low active team like I think Id vote them before Silhouette but theyre not my first choice tomorrow

Elim thoughts on Turtle:

On 9/22/2022 at 1:03 AM, JNV said:

Turtle seems to have a weird idea of what distancing is and the way they said that the thing isnt alignment indicative or anything and is just info when its stuff anyone could have gotten its just cotton candy again and its probably my faulty evildar here giving me bad vibes but theres just some weird vibes

On 9/22/2022 at 6:45 PM, JNV said:

I feel like Turtles a bit more present then usual but I dont want to punish a player for a positive shift and besides it doesnt feel evil per se just different now

On 9/23/2022 at 8:36 PM, JNV said:

Turtle has been seeming weird but weirdly active honestly and kinda feels like Silhouette a bit like talking perpendicularly sorta thing like skew lines not paralel but never touching either but also nothing like Silhouette just kinda simiar by being different from what I expect but they also havent done anything vote wise honestly so leaning kind of hmm for them but like theyve been trying thats nice thats good I feel like thats a good change

Elim thoughts on Kas:

On 9/19/2022 at 8:26 PM, JNV said:

Kasimir votes Matrim for making strange claims presumably wanting an explanation but technically nothing stated and honestly kinda agree with Matrim about the weirdness of the immediate retaliation

On 9/22/2022 at 1:03 AM, JNV said:

Kasimir I kind of just always trust Kasimir and thatll probably come back to bite me some day but honestly cant see their actions as evil Kasimir cause theyd probably be at least a little more careful

Elim thought on Symph/Archer:

On 9/22/2022 at 1:03 AM, JNV said:

Symphonian honestly forgot they were playing this game um let me go look at what theyve been doing ok they havent done anything cool cool cool

On 9/23/2022 at 8:36 PM, JNV said:

Symphonians just sorta not around so Im ignoring them lets see what replacs them

TL;DR - Elim constantly push against TUN and Stick, JNV has mixed views on Kas, but consistently has good views about Turtle. Also imo JNV's reaction to Symph/Archer seems genuinely bemused, so I'm leaning V!Archer at the moment. 

Another point- Stick also reignites the JNV train at a couple different times. 

Currently leaning V!TUN, V!Stick, and V!Archer as well as E!Turtle

@The Unknown Novel, might appreciate a shield sent this way also

1 hour ago, Turtle said:

being attacked and but being protected shows up as “attacked but survived”, right?

Just so you're aware, I'm planning on attacking you tonight. If you really are V and have a shield, then use it to protect someone who you read V right now. If you have any comments, feel free to let me know.

Edit: Also lol

Spoiler

All my open tabs:

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Shining Silhouette

[Ashbringer]

Half an hour!