Long Game 81: Lasting Integrity?

[Mat]

9 minutes ago, ashwastaken said:

Anyways, I’d like to know other people’s thoughts on lynching someone d1 here versus waiting?

I vote we kill someone today and reevaluate tomorrow, but I already said that.

[Archer]

8 hours ago, Danex said:

If nobody dies, we essentially lose an entire cycle of potential vote analysis and the elims get a free kill

That is indeed the main drawback, so I'm leaning towards not forgoing 

6 hours ago, Lahilt said:

I will poke TJ. I am not sure how to RP  as an Honor spren will have to think about it.

Thats a convient poke, since it helps create a four vote train on a guy who so far has only said one word. 

5 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think like cactus + ash

Like your pfp + username

This guy gets it

4 hours ago, Mage said:

Oh yeah, I guess it isn't quite 1/11. My math was sloppy. Since I know my village alignment that reduces the suspect pool to 10, so the chance of a random guess being an elim is # of elims / 10.

I rescind my vote on ashwastaken and switch it to TJ. That way we get closer to a majority. Whatever the math is, every time we execute someone, innocent or not, we get more information on who is actually guilty.

Voting for consolidation in the first half of the cycle seems off to me. I was actually hoping to stay on this vote until TJ showed up again, but I'm wary of leaving it too late: TJ Mage

1 hour ago, ashwastaken said:

the unknown order I was going to rescind this vote earlier but I just… forgot? Anyways, I’d like to know other people’s thoughts on lynching someone d1 here versus waiting? I think voting would make the most sense with a 3/11 elim distribution, but if we lynch a villager and there are 4 elims we’d be screwed, but I don’t really think there are 4 elims soooo my immediate thought is lynch somebody (possibly an inactive)  I haven’t played in a while so I’m not entirely certain.

also just had a thought what if you had to use APA citations in Sanderson elimination in order for a vote to count?

I don't think the four person elim team is remotely likely. If they hammer D1 and NK, it becomes 5:4, meaning we need perfect concensus in C2 or we lose. That's just too difficult. So it's likely three. 

The benefit is if we skip an exe, 

C1: 8v:3e, C2: 6v:3e, C3: 4v:3e

nevermind I'm dumb. I thought it worked out if you skipped it made the 4:3 cycle, not it'd happen naturally. 

I've misled you with math. Am I the bad guy?? 

[Mat]

26 minutes ago, Archer said:

I've misled you with math. Am I the bad guy?? 

Past experience says yes

Also, guess we’re not worried about D1ing a new player? That’s like normally something we’re worried about

Kinda makes me want to vote Araris but that was a bad read to begin with 

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Also, guess we’re not worried about D1ing a new player?

I’ve decided I’ve been playing long enough that all non-Kas players are equally new, and thus it doesn’t make sense for me to exempt any of them from the wrath of my stab votes.

[ashwastaken]

Yeah I think we need that C2 lynch info on our side, cause there’s not really anything else we can do to gain information.

will post reads  when slightly less sleep-deprived

Edited October 23, 2021 by ashwastaken
Mind my terrible spelling

[Archer]

9 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Also, guess we’re not worried about D1ing a new player? That’s like normally something we’re worried about

Kinda makes me want to vote Araris but that was a bad read to begin with 

I'm fairly comfortable voting Mage. Well really I'm not because they're new but I genuinely find their posts suspicious and at least twice in recent games I've forgone the obvious choice D1 in favour of someone more polite to murder, and both times I've regretted it. Looking at you, e!Illwei. >. >

I'm trying to decide if Araris calling his vote a stab at this stage is a joke or subtle distancing. Also I have an irrational suspicion of Ashwastaken, but I think that's just because they keep saying things. :P. Which is good, keep it up. 

[Mage]

4 hours ago, Archer said:

I'm fairly comfortable voting Mage. Well really I'm not because they're new but I genuinely find their posts suspicious and at least twice in recent games I've forgone the obvious choice D1 in favour of someone more polite to murder, and both times I've regretted it. Looking at you, e!Illwei. >. >

I'm trying to decide if Araris calling his vote a stab at this stage is a joke or subtle distancing. Also I have an irrational suspicion of Ashwastaken, but I think that's just because they keep saying things. :P. Which is good, keep it up. 

I don't think I should deserve mercy because I'm new, so don't feel bad, but I also don't think I've done anything suspicious.

What is the vote at currently?

[ashwastaken]

1. @Araris Valerian - Tresspasser's will

Immediately went and voted on mage, wich I think sort of makes sense

Basically claimed elim but that’s probably fake

Suspicious of me for my random math tangent, which makes sense I suppose. I do stuff like that during games. Not much too say, not a ton of content incredibly mild elim

2. @Archer - Spren 10

there’s a lot of content, only a bit of it really matters:

 

“Mage’s post is full of things I don’t like. Distancing from the consequences of their vote by claiming newness and RNG isn’t a great look. I’d tend to agree that it looks like the elim doc told them to be low profile because of how isolated the statement is, with few connections that could draw attention.” This would make sense, but it’s early enough I have no real idea. 

 

“Thats a convient poke, since it helps create a four vote train on a guy who so far has only said one word.” Yeah I can agree with this, we should probably start really trying to consolidate soon now though.

 

“Voting for consolidation in the first half of the cycle seems off to me. I was actually hoping to stay on this vote until TJ showed up again, but I'm wary of leaving it too late: TJ Mage” I don’t really like mage’s post either, the more I think about it. I was pretty much poking fun at the math,and 1/10 actually makes me more likely to be elim than 1/11 null, village leaning

3. @ashwastaken - Oak

Me! If I had to analyze, though (note this is with my knowledge of my playstyle in mind):

I agree with myself that experienced players are at an advantage in a lot of ways like, they always are, but here there are no new roles or anything that could change up the balance of the game other than the elimination mechanic

I agree that I should poke vote because I’m new to this site and it helps me learn people’s play styles

“the unknown order mostly a gut read and also because I feel like the one post they made wasn’t much of a contribution to the discussion (but like |TJ|’s response wasn’t either so I might end up jumping on that mini-bandwagon).” Gut reads are… interesting and mildly untrustworthy. Especially cause the two people mentioned didnt post enough for any real analysis at the time. This is honestly something that I feel is a bit suspicious, but I know I’m village anyways soooo

“1. It’s actually 1/10 to you as you dont know my alignment but know you’re village (unless you aren’t) but because I know I’m village its a 0/3 or 4 chance I’m elim to me, and a 0/x (x being the number of elims) chance I’m elim from your point of view if you were elim, as you would know all the elims and know the number. 1/11 is only if you dont know your own alignment. I therefore assume you do not know your own alignment, and therefore are not a threat because even if you are elim you wouldn’t have access to the elim doc unless you checked your gm pm and thus saw you were an elim in the process. “

^^Pretty useless but interesting math.

Also not currently voting anyone, seemingly indecisive 

posted a lot of fluff, which is something I usually do as village but am more careful about as elim (which is… odd, and probably why I end up losing a lot as elim). All in all, mild village

 

4. @Azmine_king

First post:

“A bit disappointed I can't just vote Illwei like usual. This also isn't going to end well at all huh”

Pretty simple, just and introduction to the thread with no real discussion of the game. The le I see, the more I feel like that’s just their playstyle.

They did a poke vote, and They went ahead and poked a relatively active player, which is nice because it shows they probably aren’t afraid of poking someone who ends up giving the village a lot of info if they die (does this make sense? I’m not sure).

Overall, null because although what they’ve said says village to me they haven’t said that much

 

5. @Danex

First post makes sense, I think? 

“*pokes*

do something interesting and discussion provoking that ends with us finding an elim”

The best thing to do here in order to fufill this request is to claim elim, I think. Therefore: I am elim? See guys? Interesting and discussion providing

“edit: I think we should definitely try to exe someone every cycle. the only real action we have is voting and exeing, if nobody dies, we essentially lose an entire cycle of potential vote analysis and the elims get a free kill”

And killing! But yeah, makes sense. A majority is sort of hard to get, though.

Suuper mild village? Wait no I claimed elim therefore I know you’re village unless you’re on my team? Uh? 

 

6. @Lahilt - Lahilt

Null, mild elim for inactivity but like idk

7. @Mage - Therla

Oooh this is where it gets interesting, as you (huh wait why’d I switch perspective ah well”p) have lots of votes in you! As a very clearly elim not joking, know this is either good or bad depending on wether or not you are on my team! Because I haven’t read the elim doc, I don’t know, therefore i shall try to figure it out!

“Well, since it is the first day and I am new at this game, I have no idea who to vote for. This has always been a problem of mine with Mafia. So I guess I'll choose randomly and vote ashwastaken? There is a 1/11 chance I'm correct. Not great odds and I would hate to kill a fellow loyal honorspren, so let me know if I should rescind this vote.”

Randomly voted me due to rng (haha ryhme) which I don’t really like but it’s an rng. But wait… what if mage was elim and trying to bus me because I’m inactive in the elim doc? Hmmmm 

But in all honesty I think this post feels a tad bit odd for some reason, probably just the weird lengthening if it with the fraction? At least there was some attempt at discussion.

“I rescind my vote on ashwastaken and switch it to TJ. That way we get closer to a majority. Whatever the math is, every time we execute someone, innocent or not, we get more information on who is actually guilty.”

Hmmmm, but we don’t really get that much information, do we? If we lynch a villager and the elims submit a kill, we get to 3/9, which doesn’t seem great. Although I agree that we should lynch someone, it isn’t quite because we get info every time we vote, it’s because voting makes the pool of suspects smaller.

Not quite as mild elim, lightly seasoned with pepper.

 

8. @Matrim's Dice - Phrylsena

Mild village??? Maybe??

“Same tbh” 

I think matrim would rather have elim than village, but I have no idea. 

“Tani/Danex are probably village... more confident in the first one of those.

I don't love Az jumping on me but /shrug at this point in the cycle”

Yeah, I wrote danex in as mild village, and I think that tank feels a bit village (see below), however, this would be a great thing to write as an elim knowing who’s village and who isn’t, unlike me, an elim who has no idea what’s going on.

Az did a hoppity hop

 

12. Illwei

Elim, obviously. They sent me my gm pm that said, I’m not sure voting Illwei would do much, so mage

 

P.S sorry I didn’t get to like, three players. Will post those reads when they’re done, I just wanted this out here.

 

i didnt c+p the players list you did

edit: my terrible formatting

Edited October 23, 2021 by ashwastaken

[---]

 

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Current Vote Count:

Mage (4): Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, Archer, ashwastaken
TJ (3): Danex, Lahilt, Mage
Azmine_King (1): The Unknown Order
Danex (1): Tani
Matrim's Dice (1): Azmine_King

Not Voting (1): TJ

There are 2 hours left in the day.

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Edited October 23, 2021 by Illwei

[ashwastaken]

22x-3.11x3.00.x+2.789.-34x.182736.

anyways, I’m not sure how to start conversation other than claiming elim, but I would like it if we got to a consensus on something

[Araris Valerian]

@The Unknown Order, @Tani, @|TJ|, @Azmine_king, any two of you willing to switch onto Mage? I can't really see us killing someone otherwise.

[---]

Day Is Over! No more posting. 

[---]

- Night 1 -

The Honorspren could not get a majority decision. No one has been removed. 

VC:

Mage (4): Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, Archer, ashwastaken
TJ (3): Danex, Lahilt, Mage
Azmine_King (1): The Unknown Order
Danex (1): Tani
Matrim's Dice (1): Azmine_King

Not Voting (1): TJ

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Night 1 has started, and will end in 24 hours, on Sunday, October 24th at 4PM PST

• Days are 48 hours long and Nights are 24. 
• There is an activity filter of 2 Turns (One cycle.)
• There are NO PMs.
• The Elims may communicate in their doc.

Player List: 

Spoiler

1. @Araris Valerian - Tresspasser's will

2. @Archer - Spren 10

3. @ashwastaken - Oak

4. @Azmine_king

5. @Danex

6. @Lahilt - Lahilt

7. @Mage - Therla

8. @Matrim's Dice - Phrylsena

9. @Tani

10. @|TJ| - Fiorlan

11. @The Unknown Order

Edited October 23, 2021 by Illwei

[Mat]

…Yeah that was me forgetting Day end was today :P. Not that I could have changed anything.

[Mage]

So at some point the GM will let us know in this thread that the elims have killed someone? What else are we supposed to do at night?

[Mat]

I mean, I don’t do anything, but yeah the elims kill someone. We’ll see after Night ends tomorrow.

[Azmine_king]

Sorry I wasn't on to switch votes, not that it would've changed anything. We don't really have the advantage to be divided in our votes, we should try to get a lynch every phase we can, it's our only ability as town. Even if my vote on Mat had no reasoning, 1. It was D1 2. It was just a random attempt to get a lynch, surprise, we didn't get one anyway.

[Quivil]

I'm sorry!

[Archer]

On that note, this game will be lost through inactivity. So I think we should keep the discussions going throughout the Night, so that we have a better hope of pulling off an exe during the Days. People who didn't vote Mage, why didn't you vote Mage? The cleanest defence the elim team can pull off right now is simply forcing a wagon on their teammate to fail by splintering the vote, but I'm sure there was some legitimate villager miscues, so we need to sort out what was what and whether getting threatened clears Mage or TJ in any way. I'm leaning no, but I'd still like to know why people's votes stuck where they did. 

3 hours ago, Azmine_king said:

Sorry I wasn't on to switch votes, not that it would've changed anything. We don't really have the advantage to be divided in our votes, we should try to get a lynch every phase we can, it's our only ability as town. Even if my vote on Mat had no reasoning, 1. It was D1 2. It was just a random attempt to get a lynch, surprise, we didn't get one anyway.

Who would you vote for now? 

After tonight, the ratio should be 7v:3e. Then after C2 it'll be 5v:3e, which raises the stakes for C3 because the C3 NK could bring about parity. Or we forgo another exe, and force a 4v:3e C4. I think at this point, exing whenever possible is the best route because evidently it's not something that we can reliably do. Hopefully we get an elim hit early on and none of those end game setups will matter. 

[danex]

21 minutes ago, Archer said:

People who didn't vote Mage, why didn't you vote Mage?

I wasn't online

been at work for the last 6 hours

I might've switched my vote to Mage, not really sure

on one hand, I didn't really like Mage as a target

on the other, I definitely think we should kill someone every day, this turn was almost a complete waste

i probably would've switched, info is more important.

 

at least D2 wont just be D1 again, we'll at least have the elim kill to analyze

 

I'm gonna go back through and read D1 a few times, my list of gut reads is almost nonexistent, which is honestly unusual.
usually someone has pinged me by now, even if the only thing that seemed off was their tone or phrasing or whatever

edit: also here's your friendly reminder to follow the thread

dont forget like i always do

Edited October 24, 2021 by Danex

[Lahilt]

My apologies for not being on close to the end of the day as I would have liked to have majority on a player. We should probably try to gain a majority on a character earlier on to ensure a day kill and then only change it if enough people are around to change it.

I think that at this point a mislynch is better than no lynch at all as that would put us into day 3 with no more info and one less villager.

 

 

[Azmine_king]

13 hours ago, Archer said:

Who would you vote for now? 

How about Mage, he was either saved from village incompetence or scum diversion, either way its about as good as anything else we have to go on

[The Unknown Ajah]

Sorry about not switching, I was driving and had neither internet nor cellphone service. 

[Mage]

I did not vote for Mage because I am Mage. I hope that is a good enough excuse.

I suppose the only way to prove my innocence is to let you kill me. Claiming innocence only would make me look more suspicious. (and yes I am aware that claiming innocence is exactly what I am doing).

But in the meantime maybe I'll do a bit of RP.

Therla breathed a sigh of relief as the votes were tallied. Not enough of the honorspren had arrived in time to cast a ballot. For the present, he was safe, though the entire fortress suspected him of disloyalty, and they would vote again tomorrow. If only there were a way to concretely absolve him of any wrongdoing...

[---]

The cycle is over. Don't post.