Quick Fix Game 37: Black Shadows in T'Telir

[Mailliw73]

I’m going to vote for Cadcom for now. My gut has gone both ways over the game, and I don’t know if I truly believe you’re evil, but it makes the most sense right now. 

[CadCom]

25 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

I’m going to vote for Cadcom for now. My gut has gone both ways over the game, and I don’t know if I truly believe you’re evil, but it makes the most sense right now. 

I understand, And unfortunately, I believe my vote pattern analysis will even suggest a similar result. as I was the second to vote on Ark, and the first to vote on Elandera, It appears as if I'm trying to collect breaths. I will refute this argument later. For now. I'm actually going to dedicate myself to work, and after I've finished some stuff, then I'll try to do the analysis.

[xinoehp512]

Oops, I thought I had another day to vote. A pity.

[Rathmaskal]

So, I don't have a ton of rationale on this vote yet, but I'm going to vote for CadCom.  This is the first game I think I've ever had a gut feeling about CadCom and, for now, I think that's sufficient.  I'll try to find what's setting me off on my third read-through.  (Fortunately there are only like 3 pages of posts to go through and not 15)

[DeTess]

@Cadmium Compounder, @Mailliw73, why exactly did you send your breath towards lumgol in the first place?

[Mailliw73]

41 minutes ago, Randuir said:

@Cadmium Compounder, @Mailliw73, why exactly did you send your breath towards lumgol in the first place?

Mine’s been stated a couple times. Lum won the auction from D1. 

[CadCom]

First off, let's address a few things recently brought up. 

2 hours ago, Randuir said:

@Cadmium Compounder, @Mailliw73, why exactly did you send your breath towards lumgol in the first place?

Honestly, it's because I didn't think I'd be as active as I have been, and so I figured I'd give my breath to someone else. I chose lum, because he claimed to only have one breath, and seemed less eager to get more breaths than Steel. So I chose him, so he could reach the first heightening. 

My own concern I brought up. I have not been trying to gain breaths, as can probably be seen, because I haven't been switching my votes. I have accumulated a couple of Breaths however, because I've happened to be on the people that have been lynched. If anyone has specific questions or doubts about this, please either bring it up in thread or PM me, and I'll do my best to answer.
-------------
Next up. My analysis of votes--By (Living) Player.  Spoiler for length. 

Spoiler

 

Steeldancer--D1 he was throwing around a lot of poke votes, and admitted to wanting to gain Breaths, but ended up voting for Ark. He was the third vote on Ark, and apparently didn't get any Breath. Notably, when he voted on Ark, I was leading the lynch, yet he didn't vote for me. Perhaps the reason is because he would have been the 4th vote on me, which seems like reason enough to not vote for me, if he wanted Breaths, because placing the 4th vote seems relatively unlikely to get a vote. (By this time does anyone know if Lum had already revealed how many breaths I had?)
D2- He voted on Elandera, following immediately after my vote again. He never changed his vote the rest of the cycle, and it is likely he got a breath. (Does anyone know how many breaths Elandera had?)
D3-Hasn't yet voted.  I rank him most suspicious so far.

Xinoehp-- D1 Voted on Sart. The reasoning behind it was he disagreed with Sart's vote on me. That's the second person who apparently defended me. (Steel because he followed my vote, Xino because he disagreed with Sart's vote. Admitedly, Xino had defended other people as well. Hence my argument about Elandera last cycle)
D2/D3-Didn't vote/Hasn't voted yet. I rank him least suspicious so far. 

Randuir--D1 Randuir voted on alv, because it appeared Alv was bandwagoning. Probably one of the most logical votes D1 by anyone.
D2- They voted on Lumgol because they didn't like the idea of sharing breath counts. I think that the vote shows signs of Rand's own reasoning, despite Elan already having a vote on Lum. It seems like they are genuinely trying to solve the game.   
D3- hasn't voted yet. They are now the new least suspicious so far.

Alvron--D1. I have to preface this that Alv is playing entirely in RP so far, so it makes him harder to read. Alv was the third and final vote on me, and as Rand said, it did appear a bandwago vote. They didn't move it though, and they appear to be able to be on late in the cycle due to their activity D2.
D2- They waited until near the very end of the cycle to place a vote, and it was a vote to stop a lynch on Steel, and put Elandera up for the lynch instead.(Due to Elandera wanting a lynch and removing their own vote.) Looks like a defense of Steel Due to their more cryptic playstyle this game, they have moved up to the most suspicious so far, bumped steel to second. 

Kidpen--D1/D2/D3 I don't see any votes from kidpen yet, And I only see one post from them at all. It's hard to formulate an argument based off that. Quit binging(that doesn't look like it's spelled right, but I googled it and it is) Buffy the Vampire Slayer, and get back to SE  They are exactly neutral, but fall in between Randuir and Xino in level of suspiciousness

CadCom--D1 Voted for Ark, as a pressure vote. Many people keep arguing that It looks like I panicked and voted for him to save myself. I would argue that I think I'm an experienced enough player that if I were an Elim, I wouldn't want to have the appearance of panicking. Admittedly this entire argument is IKYK, but I think it's valid still. I mean last game I was an Elim, I willingly let my teammate kill me D2, so that they were the only remaining elim for the rest of the game. 
D2- I voted on Elandera early on, and for a reason which seems to have generated enough suspicion in Elan for the remainder of the cycle. Unfortunately I was wrong again. D3- Haven't voted yet. Due to me knowing my own alignment, I'm placing myself as the new least suspicious. 

Maill--D1 They were on the Ark lynch. They were the original ark vote, and I don't know if they were on the rest of the cycle. D2 they were the first vote for steel, and stuck to their guns. D3-voting on me, because I seem most suspicious, to pretty much everyone, (including me, if I weren't me) Considering I see steel as a rather suspicious character, this is in favor for maill. While I still have my suspicions, I'm leaning village, and I'd put them right behind me for least suspicious.

Rath--D1/D2, I don't see any votes. D3 Votes on me, but admits to not having a bunch of rationale. I kind of see this as being less active, as they mentioned, and trying to catch up. I also kind of see it as trying to join the obvious lynch. For now, I'll but them right before kidpen for less suspicious(Leaning slightly village) But that may change. 

Sart--D1 Votes for me, and keeps their vote on me because my vote seems suspicious to them. D2 they voted for Elandera, claiming that their actions looked like a failed gambit. I am just confused as to what actions they are referring to. The posts seems minorly suspicous to me. For now I'll put them as third most suspicous behind Alv and Steel

Joe-- D1 Votes for Sart, and claims that it's random, despite that vote putting Sart in a tie with Ark. D2 they voted Lumgol, and mentioned something about Lum offering their breath to Maill, or something like that. Admittedly, his post is all in RP as well, which makes it a bit more difficult to decipher the meaning. I'm going to put them as the new thirt, ahead of Sart. Additionally, I am putting the condition that likely only one of Sart and Joe is actually evil. 

 

TLDR? 

My most to least suspicious list is 

1) Alvron
2) Steel
3) Joe
4) Sart
5)Xino
6)Kidpen(This is the neutral point)
7)Rand
8) Rath
9) Maill
10) CadCom

-----------

The last thing I want to look at is Lumgol's suspicion of me and Maill. So D1, Lum entered into an agreement with Maill that Maill would give his Breaths if Lum voted for whoever maill told them to vote for for the first two cycles it seems. (Based off Lum's vote post from D2) I think that Lum was suspicious of me because D1, it appeared as if the vote that Lum made saved me from even being close to the and then D2, Lum happened to be in some sort of triangle of chaos between Maill and I. Then he was killed, after expressing that suspicion of me and Maill, which makes it look even more like one or both of us is evil. It's also right after he finished being of use to Maill. But Maill and I I think were pretty quiet about what we knew about Lumgol, except between each other. This circumstantial evidence makes me want to move Maill above rand, and possibly Kidpen, on my list, however, I've convinced myself---For now--- that this could merely be coincidental in timing. I'd be willing to move my vote to one of my other top three if anyone thinks that they are a better option to lynch tonight. But I don't think I'll be on as late to check as I have been the last few nights.

[Rathmaskal]

Rand - "...do the elims get a kill..." - kind of sounds like an attempt to clear himself as a villager...but I know I've had times where I like to verify the specifics of rules that aren't explicitly defined.  "Does that also happen with a kill made by a lifeless..."  NAI

Steel - *Third vote on Ark D1* - later claims to not be able to learn anything from Ark/Devotary lynch/kill D1.  WHAT ARE YOU HIDING?!  Seriously, though, I don't think there's ever really a lynch at least that you can't learn anything about.  Night kill, maybe.  I'll go back and take a look at what Devotary did D1 to see about that.  But I'm not a fan of this kind of comment coming from village.  Later backtracks on this statement after Rand calls it out.  Has to defend against Maill calling out the sheep activity, but doesn't give a great response other than that it should be mostly NAI. *Second vote on Elandera D2*

Maill - Auctioning off breath - I don't really see this as AI either way.  Kind of a fun thing to throw into the game. *First vote on Ark D1*  Calls out Steel for basically only voting on bandwagons.

Sart - Reads heavy village D1 and definitely has CadCom in his sights...  Unlikely they're on a team together at face value.  I'm leaning that way, although a strong bus D1 when CadCom makes a couple of questionable posts could give Sart solid village cred through the rest of the game. *Third vote on Elandera D2*

Joe - Joe has been around of course, but I'm not getting much to read so far.

Kidpen - I've got nothing so far.

CadCom - Votes on Ark to try to get Ark to remove vote.  As others have mentioned, this seems an odd way to handle a D1 vote.  Also has a 'sorry for voting on you Ark' post, which always rings a bit off anymore. *Second vote on Ark D1*  Calls out xino potentially pocketing Elandera D1.  Makes it slightly less likely that CadCom and xino are both elims. *First vote on Elandera D2*

Alvron - Alvron's apparent defense of Steel (by voting on Elandera) is tough to rationalize.  Also, the RP obviously makes it a bit tougher to get a read.  *Fourth vote on Elandera D2*

xino - Defends CadCom's vote, also, as I think someone else mentioned, seems like a possible pocket on Elandera

D1 lynch - Steel claims to have not received any breath from Ark lynch, so that would be a maximum of 2 breath, which would have been given to Maill and Steel in order...which, according to later claims went to Lumgol before Lumgol was killed.  (Unless they had any breath stored in items)

Overall, Steel definitely seems the most suspicious to me.

At this point, I think I could easily see an elim team of Alvron, CadCom, and Steel

Edit #2 - I'm second-guessing that elim team already...I'm thinking it's more likely 2/3 of them.  I'll post more later, just wanted to get this edit in before anyone else posted.

Edited May 6, 2019 by Rathmaskal
Updated some formatting notes from my notepad notes to actually format in the post

[CadCom]

4 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

D1 lynch - Steel claims to have not received any breath from Ark lynch, so that would be a maximum of 2 breath, which would have been given to Maill and Steel in order...which, according to later claims went to Lumgol before Lumgol was killed.  (Unless they had any breath stored in items)

I voted after Maill, but before Steel. So If there was a maximum of 2, which I believe to be the case, then I would have gotten a breath, but steel not. My Breath from Ark did not go to Lumgol. I don't know if Maill passed his breath from Ark to Lumgol. but getting breath's from the lynch seems to come after passing breaths as an action.

[Rathmaskal]

Oh, right, sorry, meant to type 'Maill and CadCom' not 'Mail and Steel'.  Thanks.

Also, good to know about the mechanics there.

[Steeldancer]

There, now I’ve posted my gigantic freaking theory, and I’m all done with work for today. I’d like to point out Rath misrepresents my comment about not learning anything from the lynch. My point, as I said, was that I couldn’t learn anything from the lynch off the top of my head, and invited someone else to do a deeper analysis into the lynch. Saying that no one could learn anything from any lynch is just stupid. And this comment was, once again, due to a lack of time because yesterday was Sunday and I didn’t have much time to do things like analysis on the lynch. Today will be different, soon as I get back to my laptop. And I wasn’t defensive of my sheeping activity, I explained my motivations and my awareness that being a sheep is suboptimal, and that I planned on not sheeping as soon as I had the time. In other words, I look suspicious because of a lack of time. 

Randuir, you asked who I am least suspicious of right now. Right now I’m leaning strongest village on Randuir and CadCom. 

[Rathmaskal]

28 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

There, now I’ve posted my gigantic freaking theory, and I’m all done with work for today. I’d like to point out Rath misrepresents my comment about not learning anything from the lynch. My point, as I said, was that I couldn’t learn anything from the lynch off the top of my head, and invited someone else to do a deeper analysis into the lynch. Saying that no one could learn anything from any lynch is just stupid. And this comment was, once again, due to a lack of time because yesterday was Sunday and I didn’t have much time to do things like analysis on the lynch. Today will be different, soon as I get back to my laptop. And I wasn’t defensive of my sheeping activity, I explained my motivations and my awareness that being a sheep is suboptimal, and that I planned on not sheeping as soon as I had the time. In other words, I look suspicious because of a lack of time. 

Randuir, you asked who I am least suspicious of right now. Right now I’m leaning strongest village on Randuir and CadCom. 

That's a fair point on the first...  On the second, you're actually misrepresenting what I said.  (Oh how the turn tables have turned)  I didn't say you were defensive, I said you had to defend.

Also, a quick follow up on my thoughts about only 2/3 of Alvron, CadCom and Steel being elim - even if steel is elim, I highly doubt that all three of them would hammer the vote like that to save Steel yesterday.  I guess it's possible, but in general I'd think it too early to put that kind of obvious tie across the entire elim team.  Also, I guess regarding my prediction on elim team size, 3 seemed like a decent guess with 14 players?  Although I guess 4 is possible as well.  Kind of in that in-between level of players I'm thinking?

[A Joe in the Bush]

2 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

 

1) Alvron
2) Steel
3) Joe
4) Sart
5)Xino
6)Kidpen(This is the neutral point)
7)Rand
8) Rath
9) Maill
10) CadCom

-----------

Interesting, somewhat agreeable.

1 hour ago, Rathmaskal said:

Joe has been around of course, but I'm not getting much to read so far.

My breath infested Dice confirm that Steel needs to be lynched.

[CadCom]

Now the current vote count is 

CadCom (1): Maill
Alvron (1): CadCom
Steel (2): Rath, Joe

I almost don't like how easily votes started up on steel, but I still find them suspicious. I also find it odd that Steel has such a village read from me. I think that most likely, I will move my vote to him later on, but it depends on reactions of others to the idea of a steel lynch. 

[Steeldancer]

Huh, a couple of things are weird to me. First off, Joe feels... off? I think he's been voting using actual reasoning and using the dice thing as a flavor thing, but honestly I'm not sure, and little alarm bells are going off in my head every time I read one of his posts. The other thing that stands out to me from a reread of the thread is the fact that Alvron is straight up flying underneath my radar, which is ALSO weird, especially for Alvron. 
I also don't know why people are still voting on me. I addressed the concerns that were raised about me, and now that I have time, I'm doing my own analysis. So, what exactly are you voting on me for? 

[DeTess]

Does someone have a link to a game in which steeldancer was lynched as an elim for me? I remember seeing Steeldancer becoming fairly defensive when threathened by a lynch before as a villager (which is something I consider somewhat suspicious usually), and I want to see if there is any difference in their reactions as an elim.

@A Joe in the Bush, you made an interesting comment about the interactions between lumgol and Maill last cycle, so I'd love to see some more insights rather than just agreements with other peoples and votes from you.

[Mailliw73]

CadCom, Elandera claimed two breath to me last night. 

Rath, I agree almost 100% with your team guess, which is kinda freaky to me. Steel and CadCom are top two right now for me. Alv is Alv. 

40 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

The other thing that stands out to me from a reread of the thread is the fact that Alvron is straight up flying underneath my radar, which is ALSO weird, especially for Alvron. 

Alv flying under the radar is weird? That’s like the perfect description of his play style. 

17 minutes ago, Randuir said:

Does someone have a link to a game in which steeldancer was lynched as an elim for me? I remember seeing Steeldancer becoming fairly defensive when threathened by a lynch before as a villager (which is something I consider somewhat suspicious usually), and I want to see if there is any difference in their reactions as an elim.

@A Joe in the Bush, you made an interesting comment about the interactions between lumgol and Maill last cycle, so I'd love to see some more insights rather than just agreements with other peoples and votes from you.

I wanted to see that too, but didn’t want to point it out because if Steel knows, it’s pointless. Also, he wasn’t under attack seriously till the end of the cycle when he was no longer on, sadly, as I wanted to see the same reaction. 

Lum trusted me D1 and then based off of my vote for Ark and CadCom’s supposed working with me began to suspect me. 

[DeTess]

I'm very tired as I type this, so it'll likely be a rambling mess. my apologies in advance.

The idea of an Alvron, cadcom and steel team is intriguing, but I don't see it working because of Alvron's D1 vote on Cadcom. That vote could easily have led to a lynch on cadcom at that time, so I can't see Alvron as being on the same team as cadcom.

I can, however, see Cadcom and steeldancer being potential team-mates, though I'm currently not that suspicious of Cadcom.

Either way, my main suspects right now are Alvron and Steel, with Joe somewhere behind that given how different his play-style seemed, though the comment of his I mentioned before in D2 shows that he seems to be working to solve the game.

Anyway, what infromation could we egt from hte lynches of either Alvron or steel?

If Alvron is an elim, I'd say it most likely exonerates cadcom and throws suspicion on steel given Alvron's role in turning the lynch away from him.

If Alvron is village, I'm not seeing much in the way of information being gained.

If Steel is evil, It makes Alvron look worse given Alv's role in saving steel, and it makes cadcom look somewhat worse for similar reasons, as well as some potential hedginess in the way cadcom set up his vote here (though as I said before, I don't think cadcom and alvron are both elims).

If steel is village, it means there was no direct malicious motive to the direction Alvron swung the vote last cycle, and it leaves me no more suspicious of Cadcom.

Looking at it this way, the steeldancer lynch looks better as some information is gained no matter how he flips, while the amount of info gained if he flips elims is similar to the amount of info gained from an elim!alv lynch.

Anyway, this'll be my last post for the day. I'll try to get a decent overview of all players done next cycle if I'm still alive, Because I feel like I'm tunnelling a bit on the likes of Alvron and Steel who are active, but as far as I can tell not really working to solve the game.

[Steeldancer]

Welp, looks like people are going to keep voting on me, so I'm going to vote Joe Alvron in self defense, and hope that maybe I'll survive this lynch. Joe, I'm still suspicious of you. 
Also, speaking of my defensiveness, I do tend to be very defensive. Even now, it's hard to restrain myself from freaking out all over people. But that sort of reaction has gotten me lynched in the past, so I tend to try to repress freaking out nowadays. 

Edited May 6, 2019 by Steeldancer

[CadCom]

Well, I'm not about to let steel survive again, since he is one of the top of my suspect list, so alv, steel.

[Sart]

Vote Count:
CadCom (1): Maill
Alvron (1): Steeldancer
Steeldancer (4): Rath, Joe, Randuir, CadCom

"Perhaps I'm missing something here, but Ch Aracter TBA (CadCom) didn't have a reason to pass his Breaths to N'Narim (Lumgol). Look at his last words yesterday."

Quote

I'm actually fairly suspicious of Lum for this post, so I'll keep my eyes on the votes, and I may possibly change my vote over to Lum, depending on how the lynch goes.

"Does that strike you as someone who would then ally with N'narim instead? But, oh, we're supposed to believe his tear-jerking story that he felt moved with pity over poor N'Narim's lack of Breath." Sart rolled his eyes.

"What lack of Breath?!" Sart shouted. He paused, adjusted himself on his seat, and spoke in a calm measured tone 

"N'Narim (Lumgol) admitted that he had a Strawman, which was worth a fair amount of Breath. If Ch Aracter TBA had actually cared about giving more of the Hallandren Alliance ropes, he could have had Lumgol give him the extra breaths, rather than making a rich man richer. And yet it appears the rest of you have fallen for it hook line and sinker. With sweet arguments, he's convinced you to look elsewhere, and now Awakened Steel (Steeldancer) is in the hot seat. Bah. I only stopped voting on you since I believed you had a Strawman. I see that thought process was obviously skewed. Well, I won't make the same mistake twice. It's time for you to meet your maker @Cadmium Compounder. I hope you're prepared."

[Mailliw73]

That makes it 

Vote Count:
CadCom (2): Maill, Sart
Alvron (1): Steeldancer
Steeldancer (4): Rath, Joe, Randuir, CadCom

@Kidpen Hey, I see you! What do you think about literally anything this game?

Edited May 7, 2019 by Mailliw73
tag Kidpen

[Alvron]

Izzy had missed a great deal of conversation while she was undergoing the daily maintenance all Lifeless needed.  There was a good amount of talk about this Alvron person, someone Izzy didn't remember seeing anywhere.

Ignoring the conversation about someone she had never met, she focused on Ch. Aracter TBA once again.  Her suspicion of Turquoise-Bellied Alligator the previous day had been completely wrong, partly she admitted because she had somehow mixed N'Nairim up with Ch. Aracter TBA.

Izzy listened carefully to Sart.  He seemed like A Smart Guy and made some very good points.  Why give Breath to someone that already had a Strawman?  After all, it's not like they could use them both at the same time.

Of course there was still something strange about that talking lump of Steel but so long as it couldn't move, Izzy felt it wasn't much of a threat.  No.  It was Ch. Aracter TBA that posed the greater threat to everyone.

[Steeldancer]

It’s actually been a while since I’ve been lynched. But I’d rather not get lynched today. Alvron . cadcom, I’m not as suspicious of you as others are, but I’d prefer your death to mine because I know I’m village and therefore a waste of a lynch. Particularly as I still only have 2 breath. (I got one from the lynch the other day. Still can’t do squat with them) 

[CadCom]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

Vote Count:
CadCom (1): Maill
Alvron (1): Steeldancer
Steeldancer (4): Rath, Joe, Randuir, CadCom

"Perhaps I'm missing something here, but Ch Aracter TBA (CadCom) didn't have a reason to pass his Breaths to N'Narim (Lumgol). Look at his last words yesterday."

"Does that strike you as someone who would then ally with N'narim instead? But, oh, we're supposed to believe his tear-jerking story that he felt moved with pity over poor N'Narim's lack of Breath." Sart rolled his eyes.

"What lack of Breath?!" Sart shouted. He paused, adjusted himself on his seat, and spoke in a calm measured tone 

"N'Narim (Lumgol) admitted that he had a Strawman, which was worth a fair amount of Breath. If Ch Aracter TBA had actually cared about giving more of the Hallandren Alliance ropes, he could have had Lumgol give him the extra breaths, rather than making a rich man richer. And yet it appears the rest of you have fallen for it hook line and sinker. With sweet arguments, he's convinced you to look elsewhere, and now Awakened Steel (Steeldancer) is in the hot seat. Bah. I only stopped voting on you since I believed you had a Strawman. I see that thought process was obviously skewed. Well, I won't make the same mistake twice. It's time for you to meet your maker @Cadmium Compounder. I hope you're prepared."

I'm fairly certain that lumgol revealed he had the strawman D2. I passed my breaths D1.