Long Game 53: The Fate of the Forum

[DeTess]

54 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

oh thank goodness, because I had this brief moment of terror where I considered the possibility where you created a game where the eliminators outnumber the village, and the village is the eliminators... which would be just so weird... 

When I was doing some reading into my opponents for the Maffia world championship last year two years ago, I actually read a game that was basically exactly that in a  blackout format, so it took till about cycle 3 for people to figure out what was going on. It was a pretty awesome read.

I don't think that's the case here, however, and I think the main reason for the blackout on village roles is to make villagers clearing themselves based on role more difficult, which can be an issue in a game with specific evil roles and specific good roles.

I'm not certain what to think about the roadwalker wagon, as it seems purely motivated by activity. This cycle hasn't been without discussion, but voting on an inactive still feels like a bad decision. I'll take another look over what's happening and maybe change my vote.

[DeTess]

New post, as I'll be voting retracting a vote in this one.

First of all, Elandera. I understand the effects of posting while being sleepy all too well (which is why you should be taking everything in this post with a grain or two of salt).

Guest seems a bit off. I get that they're sticking to a 'new player/new account' act, but that doesn't really give you leave for a bandwagon vote (since, for those that didn't bother checking, they are a regular of SE games). 

Mailliw772 I disagree with, but I don't think an elim would put themselves this much out there.

Any other opinions will have to wait till tomorrow, as I'll need a clear head and sufficient amounts of time, so I think I'll refrain from voting this cycle, as right now I don't feel strongly about any one lynch.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Aranduensis
Grammar

[Araris Valerian]

Just a heads up that I will be offline for the next ~30 hours or so. Sorry that I won't be able to contribute to today's banning.

[Sapphire Elephant]

Here's my opinion. It's day one. We don't have solid suspicions. Banning an inactive, especially one that is lurking, is a better idea than banning an active person who, by probability will most likely be a villager. It'll give us some information, and helps to encourage activity. Then, day 2, we'll have more posts and analysis to work with, and we can make a more informed lynch on more active individuals. 

[Araris Valerian]

That's no fun. If they aren't active, then they don't plead for mercy .

[Mailliw73]

My one hesitancy is that Roadwalker has viewed the thread multiple times since being voted on. I've only played one game with them, but they didn't seem like the type of player to just ignore that. I've sent them a PM, just in case they have some role where they can't post in thread. 

[Steeldancer]

Goodness, I take 4 hours to rest after I’m finally done with the school week and the thread blows up. I’ll have to take a bit of time to catch up; thankfully I still have a few hours before I head to bed so I should be able to do some thinking. 

[Arrae]

4 hours ago, Aranduensis said:

New post, as I'll be voting retracting a vote in this one.

First of all, Elandera. I understand the effects of posting while being sleepy all too well (which is why you should be taking everything in this post with a grain or two of salt).

Guest seems a bit off. I get that they're sticking to a 'new player/new account' act, but that doesn't really give you leave for a bandwagon vote (since, for those that didn't bother checking, they are a regular of SE games). 

Mailliw772 I disagree with, but I don't think an elim would put themselves this much out there.

Any other opinions will have to wait till tomorrow, as I'll need a clear head and sufficient amounts of time, so I think I'll refrain from voting this cycle, as right now I don't feel strongly about any one lynch.

I agree that Guest's vote does not feel village, which is why I have placed my vote on them. No doubt part of this is due to the fact that Guest's vote was on me, but something about their lack of reasoning feels like it was done more for appearances rather than as a substantiative vote.

3 hours ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

Here's my opinion. It's day one. We don't have solid suspicions. Banning an inactive, especially one that is lurking, is a better idea than banning an active person who, by probability will most likely be a villager. It'll give us some information, and helps to encourage activity. Then, day 2, we'll have more posts and analysis to work with, and we can make a more informed lynch on more active individuals. 

Keeping in mind the role shenanigans within this game, I would instead suggest that if by N1 Roadwalker hasn't given a proper account for themselves, then a kill role, if one exists, should take him out.

[Mailliw73]

Guest is also my best guess right now. After pinch hitting in the last LG, I’ve now realized how nice it is to start a game at D3 and be able to use the first two days information in hindsight. I forgot how hard D1 is. 

[Steeldancer]

Alrighty then, having read through the thread, I’m inclined to agree with Tiny. I get elephants argument for lynching inactives, but I’ve seen roles before that made it so talking in thread was difficult/restricted. And in a forum style game, roadwalker might have some sort of muted role or something. Anyway, Guest  quite easily has the single most suspicious post so far. While it can be viewed as purposeful trolling... it’s just SO SUSPICIOUS. So yeah. 

[Alvron]

How can I pass up the chance to tie the votes. Guest.  Let us roll the dice, flip the coin and pray to the Gods of Luck and Chance.

[I think I am here.]

10 minutes ago, Gammalv Fiend said:

How can I pass up the chance to tie the votes. Guest.  Let us roll the dice, flip the coin and pray to the Gods of Luck and Chance.

Wait, are you Alvron? Oh wow, how did I not realise

Wait, so are Guest and Road at equal votes now? I guess that would be best - a random selection. Or maybe both get lynched.

[xxGaea]

8 hours ago, Metabardnition said:

Also, if either GM is a bot, Jon, I get the sense that it's xxGaea. The way there's the low-key "You're the only one I trust." line in the signups thread - all the senses honed from every time I've watched a movie ever tells me that they're going to end up as the traitor.

Wow, r00d. =P I am perfectly innocent of being a Spambot.

Roughly an hour and 45 minutes remain in the cycle, darlings~

[Sapphire Elephant]

Eh. Guest.
Primarily just to mess with Alvron. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Yet another tie in the last hours of the cycle. Why have I been given yet another opportunity to break a tie, just like LG52? Will I be able to avenge my excellent decision to lynch the one villager instead of the another village? How long will I be cursed with the bloodthirsty tendencies of Somne? 

First, a tied lynch results in a random death. Second, I don't really know what reklawdaoR is hoping to achieve by staying inactive, as many of the early votes specified that they might be removed upon an appearance. While a role that prevents the user from speaking in thread is marginally plausible, I just don't see the point of a role that does that and prevents them from responding to PMs(or at least I haven't received a response, if someone else has received a PM it's likely a good idea to bring that up). 

Time for some plagiarism:

• (3) reklawdaoR: Elandera, ITIAH, Metabardnition, 
• (1) High Priest of Lord Tekiel: Furamirionind, 
• (1) A Joe In The Bush: Jondesu,
• (1) Gammalv Fiend: Araris Valerian,
• (1) ITIAH: Cadmium Compounder,
• (1) NotASteelClone: Seventh Saint,
• (1) Aranduensis: Mailliw772,
• (5) Guest103492: HPoLT, tiny wilson, NotASteelClone, Gammalv Fiend

Looking at the votes in the latter half of the cycle where I was supposed to be paying attention, we get the interesting pattern where votes for HPoLT are replaced with votes for people who voted for HPoLT. Maill772, Clone?Steel, Guest, but not Fura, seemed to have been voted for largely because they had voted for HPoLT. When the votes for HPoLT disappeared, the votes concentrated on Guest out of the four possible targets. 

So would it make sense for reklawdaoR to be evil and the vote swing to HPoLT to be malicious in nature? What about the swing to Guest? At most one of those can be spam, as completely different people were involved. If reklawdaoR is evil and HPoLT was targeted in an attempt to save him, it would mean that the spammers gave up on the lynch, folding at the first sign of resistance.  That doesn't seem too likely. A second alternative, that some of the recent votes from tiny wilson, NotASteelClone, and Gammalv Fiend are an attempt to save a teammate, is more plausible, though fairly risky. Is potentially saving a teammate worth linking a significant portion of the team together? Perhaps to save the conversion role it would be. 

On the other side, with reklawdaoR being an eliminator, Steel being on part of both lynch swings makes me assign a low-ish probability to the possibility of HPoLT being evil and Guest being good. It's not entirely impossible though, especially as I don't believe all three late voters for Guest are evil in any scenario. If reklawdaoR and HPoLT are both good, and the vote swings were just eliminators hating counterproductive roleplay more than inactivity, what are the chances that Guest was correctly identified as a spammer? I do agree that it is odd for Guest to be so invested in their persona that they let it affect their voting habits. Was this short lived vote worse than some of the other RP based votes? Unlike with reklawdaoR, Guest is active enough that we might be able to get an answer.  @Guest103492, it would (likely) be appreciated if you separated your character from your actual more serious discussion, assuming you survive this lynch.

And... before I can vote Elephant decides to break the tie for me. This makes it less likely that the shift to Guest is a spammer ploy to save reklawdaoR. Time for some minor re-evaluation.

[Alvron]

10 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

Eh. Guest.
Primarily just to mess with Alvron. 

Nooooooooooo. My glorious tie.  You killed it.  You monster!

Oh, wait. Roadwalker.

The tie lives. IT LIVES!!!!

[Sapphire Elephant]

10 minutes ago, Gammalv Fiend said:

Nooooooooooo. My glorious tie.  You killed it.  You monster!

Oh, wait. Roadwalker.

The tie lives. IT LIVES!!!!

Your desperation pleases me. Roadwalker (I promise I won't change my vote anymore hehe)

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Now things are really exciting. Do I even want to face Alv's wrath by breaking the tie? I wield no extendable bodies to sacrifice to the Shadows. Perhaps his anger can be assuaged by sacrificing some animal crackers to the Gods myself. 

And ninja'd(is it still called that if I go back and edit my post?) by Elephant again, who has changed their vote back to Roadwalker. This seems like a prime opportunity for Alvron to create yet another tie by repeatedly shifting his vote. I've decided to avoid that by casting my own vote, at which point we'll obviously have Fura come in and vote for the other player to create Yet More Ties. Perhaps if I appease Fura by bolding my vote for Roadwalker, we can avoid that.

[Furamirionind]

4 minutes ago, Crimsn Chanarach said:

I've decided to avoid that by casting my own vote, at which point we'll obviously have Fura come in and vote for the other player to create Yet More Ties. Perhaps if I appease Fura by bolding my vote for Roadwalker, we can avoid that.

Hmm, I was considering it... But I suppose I cant now that you have done this favor for me. : )

Edited March 23, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Sapphire Elephant]

RIP Alvron's beautiful tie. 

[Alvron]

5 minutes ago, Crimsn Chanarach said:

Now things are really exciting. Do I even want to face Alv's wrath by breaking the tie? I wield no extendable bodies to sacrifice to the Shadows. Perhaps his anger can be assuaged by sacrificing some animal crackers to the Gods myself. 

You are fine.  Sapphire however, I shall feed them to the Shadows.  Slowly.  Very, very slowly.

In the hope of gaining another tie. Guest.

[Sapphire Elephant]

5 minutes ago, Gammalv Fiend said:

You are fine.  Sapphire however, I shall feed them to the Shadows.  Slowly.  Very, very slowly.

In the hope of gaining another tie. Guest.

If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine. 

[Furamirionind]

3 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine. 

Wow... Well, that doesnt actually mean a lot...

[xxGaea]

Five minutes left, dearies~

[Sapphire Elephant]

Plot twist Roadwalker