Seonid

Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium

1,386 posts in this topic

I think it's unlikely that you would claim Survival if you didn't have it, considering the possibility of you losing tonight if Odium targets you. Now that Orlok has retracted his vote, you are no longer in danger of being lynched. I won't vote for you, but I won't vote for no lynch either.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My apologies for being absent much of the cycle. And my thank to everyone who's provided vote counts in my absence.

Here's an official one, if I've got my count right.

No Lynch (3): Arinian, Jondesu, TheYoungPyromancer
Fifth Scholar (2): Fifth Scholar, Hemalurgic Headshot
TheYoungPyromancer (2): Steeldancer, Straw
Arinian (1): MonsterMetroid
Hemalurgic Headshot (1): Elbereth
livinglegend (1): Megasif
Sart (1): Droughtbringer
Straw (1): Sart

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow. That was literally 100+ new posts to read through. Stormfather, you guys are prolific.

I echo Steeldancers remark about not showing up on people's reads :P

I echo Orlok's point about how we need to focus primarily on Hoid/Khriss. But I also think Odium's win condition is probably not compatible with the village win condition, and is thus a completely legitimate threat to discuss as well. Just not something to tunnel on.

I think a no-lynch is undesirable. I think lynching fifth is almost as undesirable as a no-lynch.

I think I believe Pyromancer's claim, because I am guessing this is what he intended to tell me in that PM he wanted. What really seals it for me is how Pyromancer was almost eager to deploy his "ace-in-the-hole." Normally, I would expeditiously lynch somebody who claimed survivor to dodge the lynch, but Pyromancer was literally going out of his way to make this claim, which makes me more inclined to trust it, because I chalk that up to being genuinely excited about having a shard. @TheYoungPyromancer I think you are maybe overestimating the odds that you are attacked. Village!Odium might choose to attack you, just to be safe in case you are Hoid/Khriss pretending to be Survival, but I don't think it's a given. It depends mostly on whether Odium's vessel believes your claim.

Another thought. If Pyromancer took a charge of Odium, that puts us at 3 people claiming to have taken a charge of Odium. That is the requisite amount to release a shard. While it is possible for more than these three to have taken charges from Odium, that does make me wonder if one of them lied about not recieving the shard.

But about that, I would like to note that Odium is not the only dangerous shard. If I had to guess, I would speculate that Ruin's altered win condition would be to destroy all of the planets, and that doing this would end the game with Ruin winning and everybody else losing. If my speculation is correct, Ruin is an equal, or arguably greater threat than Odium.

...and clearly, it is difficult to follow my own advice and not tunnel on shards. :P My last three paragraphs were all about shards. I can see the appeal, shards are fun. I hope I can get one next turn :)

I need to do a more comprehensive analysis, but also I was travelling for the bulk of the day which precluded that.

This cycle doesn't have that much time left, and I don't particularly want any of the lynches that are currently on the table. Nor do I want a no-lynch. I believe casting votes and having a lynch every cycle is pretty important (see QF30).

Arinian, could you please clarify your reasons for promoting no-lynch?

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, I'm not sure where to go with this. I think it is necessary to have a day one lynch. I believe Fifth Scholar is 17th shard and TheYoungPyromancer is survival.

And... Seonid posted an up to date vote count. Thank you, that saves me a lot of time.

From Fifth Scholar's post earlier where he did deep analysis on Hemalurgic Headshot, I believed HH had been converted to one of the other teams. However, his response felt very village to me. He sounded very sincere and frustrated and I figured my reasons for voting were tunnel-y. Going back and rereading both posts now I realized something. Fifth Scholar brought up this post:

Quote

Very interesting. There is a possibility that all of the careful planning and analysis on the affects of the three released Shards could go out the window.

But will these new end game conditions benefit the village or the Elims?

That comment still feels odd for me. Until just recently none of the shard knew who the other shards were so the only people who have communication for "careful planning" are the two eliminator factions. When he responded to Scholar's post, HH called out two other comments from Scholar's post that I didn't find suspicious. However, the post seemed to side step this comment that felt like a lot bigger issue. So for now Hemalurgic Headshot. @Hemalurgic Headshot 

------------------------------------------------------

Edited for formatting

Also in response to Drake's post; I have had a very village gut read of Arinian this game... which is weird. I think I have never had a good gut read for Arinian in any game we have played together. He must be Hoid or Kriss :P.

I may switch my vote over to Arinian if it looks like we have a chance of lynching someone, because at least that way we get some information.

Edited by livinglegend
formatting and to not double post
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Many posts. Such overwhelm.

Last time I was here we had 5 pages. Seeing as we've got like 35 minutes till rollover, I'm not going to read these 5 new pages all thoroughly, just a quick skim.

So Pyromancer claims to have Survival...again. I would just like to say. one. thing.

Quote

Hm. I wouldn't be surprised if Seonid decided not to change Survival's vessel at all due to Pyromamcer already knowing about its win con...

Called it! :D 

TBH if I were Survival, I'm not entirely sure I would even refute that claim. If anything, it would put me in a favourable position. However, I'm actually inclined to sorta believe their claim after skimming through the thread as there are a couple of their posts that suggest the same. Strongly.

Current Vote Count:

No Lynch (3): Arinian, Jondesu, TheYoungPyromancer
Fifth Scholar (2): Fifth Scholar, Hemalurgic Headshot
TheYoungPyromancer (2): Steeldancer, Straw
Arinian (2): MonsterMetroid, Drake
Hemalurgic Headshot (2): Elbereth, Livinglegend
livinglegend (1): Megasif
Sart (1): Droughtbringer
Straw (1): Sart

I would very much not like a no-lynch today, please. Unfortunately, me adding one vote to any of these lynch candidates isn't going to change a thing. But for what it's worth, Hemalurgic Headshot. Your response to Fifth's post did give me a village vibe initially but LivingLegend brings up a good point.

Edit: Oh, and I was going to say this but forgot: Another player I'm getting increasingly suspcious of is Straw. Though I'm sceptical because this seems to be on par with Straw's regular playstyle. But I do not like how he keeps switching from one vote to the other with little or virtually no reason.

Edited by _Stick_
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, MonsterMetroid and stick. If either of you are willing to switch, we can have a lynch.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How would you switch to? Arinian? There's one minute left

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cycle is closed!

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry for double posting, but like it wouldn't be nice to have a Chinese fire drill cuz whoever we decide to lynch here won't get a chance to defend themselves so idk

edit: oh rip cycles over 

Edited by _Stick_
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Night 1 - Obstruction of Justice

Ninera and Ayara stood in a bustling tea shop, talking and waiting.

“...I was walking to the library, y’know, when some guy started yelling at me. Told me that I needed to cover up my safehand, said I should be ashamed of myself.” Ayara shivered. “Followed me until I got into the library.”

“Yeah, that’s creepy,” Ninera said. “Extremist Vorins are the worst.”

“One caffeinated jasmine white tea for Ninera Choi?” a voice called from behind a counter.

“Oh, that’s me,” Ninera said to Ayara. She went to the counter and grabbed her drink. It was warm in her hands, a counterpoint against the chilly air in the tea shop. She sniffed it appreciatively. “I have to go now, I’m supposed to go to some hearing thing for the Shard Lab investigation at 3.”

“They think you took Survival?” Ayara asked incredulously. “You?

“Nah, they’re making everybody who’s been in the Shard Lab do it,” said Ninera. “They probably just have to show the parents that they’re doing something. I’m probably going to do my lit reading there.” She opened the door. “Anyways, bye Ayara.”

“Seeya Nin,” Ayara said.

--

“Ladies, gentlemen, and those who are neither, welcome,” Deputy Vice Chancellor Finn Scholz said from his position behind the podium, “to the first daily adjourning of the Shardic Research Facility investigation.”

He held the podium tightly, looking across the auditorium. It was packed with students, professors, and researchers, the combined might of several different departments.

“It has come to our attention that many of those who were granted access to the Shardic Research Facility have abused this access, and taken what is not rightfully yours. We meet today, to determine which among you have so casually flouted rules meant for the well-being of us all.”

As his speech continued, his audience lost interest. Finn’s eyes passed from students smirking at unknown contents on the phones they were holding out, to facility members gossiping to each other, to a few frisky audience members making out in the back corners, to some tired souls who had simply fallen asleep.

“It is clear to me that respect for authority is not what it once was,” Finn said. “Thus, we at the Silverlight Polytechnic University administration feel that it is time to bring back the rule of law to our esteemed school, and cast out those miscreants who would sully our name.” He swiped his hands in a sharp line. “Henceforth, those who are determined guilty in these hearings shall have any accreditations, degrees, and scholarships given to them by our venerable school revoked and made null.”

That got their attention. Shock and fear ran through the audience like an electric current.

Finn smiled. “I have already received notice that several complaints have been made against a certain individual.” He paused for dramatic effect. “Darrel, you are accused of illicitly Investing unauthorized objects and selling them without a license. What do you have to say about yourself?"

------------------------------

At the end of the day, the investigation concluded, without sufficient evidence for any guilty charges. A large majority of the students refused to give evidence while on the witness stand, and the remainder had nothing of substance to say.

The students who had issued accusations contradicted themselves on the stand, or recanted in front of the audience.

Finn wiped sweat from his face as he walked out of the auditorium, visibly angry. "How dare they so openly flout our authority!"

His staff assistants froze, each trying not to draw his attention. Nobody wanted to be the target of his wrath.

Then, he calmed down, a smile growing on his face. "If the students won't cooperate with this investigation, they shall be made to cooperate. Dalji, look up the UniReg on corporeal punishment for me, would you?"

---------------------------------

Nobody was lynched!

The Sand Lord (aspect of Autonomy) has joined the game on Nalthis!

Vote Count:

Hemalurgic Headshot (3): Elbereth, livinglegend, Stick
No Lynch (3): Arinian, Jondesu, TheYoungPyromancer
Arinian (2): Drake Marshall, MonsterMetroid
Fifth Scholar (2): Fifth Scholar, Hemalurgic Headshot
TheYoungPyromancer (2): Steeldancer, Straw
livinglegend (1): Megasif
Sart (1): Droughtbringer
Straw (1): Sart

 

General Announcements: To all students, effective immediately. Per Silverlight Polytechnic Regulation 66, university enforcement is empowered to detain any person they deem of interest in an ongoing investigation. Those found guilty of obstructing an investigation will receive an immediate public caning not to exceed 50 lashes. Those found guilty of concealing information relating to the stolen Shards or charges of their investiture will be charged as accessories to the crime - regardless of the degree of their involvement.

 - Deputy Vice Chancellor Finn Scholtz

The Night will last for:

blu_1521529200.png

Please note that I am moving rollover up by a half hour. The new rollover time will be at 1:00 AM, MST - this will probably remain consistent.

Player List:

  1. Young Bard - Jeral
  2. Arinian - Eilen
  3. Eternum - Habrian
  4. Fifth Scholar - Darrel
  5. randuir - Met
  6. Steeldancer - Steeldancer and Eobard Thawne
  7. Straw - Straw
  8. Jondesu - Quintus
  9. Droughtbringer - Ralar
  10. Devotary of Sponteneity - Reed
  11. livinglegend - Unnamed Character 3
  12. Orlok - Locke Tekiel
  13. MonsterMetroid - Willie
  14. Magestar - Moro
  15. Hemalurgic_Headshot - Jiamo
  16. Megasif - Mega
  17. Sart - Sam Taswell
  18. TheYoungPyromancer - Kelsier
  19. _Stick_ - Stick
  20. shanerockes - Philepe De Pedro Von Leiderhuch Johnson III
  21. Drake Marshall - Everen
  22. Elbereth - Elaria
  23. The Sand Lord (Nalthis)
Edited by Seonid
7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, that was uneventful.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Sand Lord has been edited into the player list.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wait, is the aspect on Nalthis or Taldain?

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nothing to see here. Move along...

:ph34r:

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agh. This is exactly what I didn’t want to happen. I wish I’d been able to switch back to HH, because this no lynch was not useful at all. I honestly fully expected to be dead right now, but I suppose Orlok’s point that a lynch on me would just stifle discussion was fair.

I think you guys slightly misinterpreted my blue text- I meant that my post count would be reduced, not that I would go inactive, and that I would feel that I couldn’t maintain what I would consider a normal level of activity, for me, which is 4 or more posts a day. I’ll still be able to post, just more like twice a day, instead. 

Hopefully someone will get killed tonight and we can get some actual, solid information to work with. As a final side note, people were using my actions last cycle as a way of clearing me- they should not have. I could have been bluffing, or confident that you would decide not to lynch me. My intent was for the lynch to clear me, and nothing else, but obviously things didn’t pan out that way. 

I’d like a thorough explanation from everyone who voted no lynch.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When I said:

Quote

Hey Guys, I'm back! I'm also very tired, and this is quite a bit of thread to go through. 

I didn't mean to say "please add another five pages while I'm asleep". More thoughts to come once I'm fully caught up again.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Agh. This is exactly what I didn’t want to happen. I wish I’d been able to switch back to HH, because this no lynch was not useful at all. I honestly fully expected to be dead right now, but I suppose Orlok’s point that a lynch on me would just stifle discussion was fair.

Hopefully someone will get killed tonight and we can get some actual, solid information to work with. As a final side note, people were using my actions last cycle as a way of clearing me- they should not have. I could have been bluffing, or confident that you would decide not to lynch me. My intent was for the lynch to clear me, and nothing else, but obviously things didn’t pan out that way. 

I’d like a thorough explanation from everyone who voted no lynch.

@Fifth Scholar, Kas has a very good post somewhere from LG12 that El likes to reference. I’ll try to dig it out, but the important point it makes is that the threat of a lynch with intent to kill is what generates most of the information, as opposed to the lynch itself. Whilst your actions typically shouldn’t clear you (and indeed don’t beyond tonight), the timing of when you made them - just before you went to sleep, and as the US was going to sleep, cleared you to me. I don’t see you making a post like that without knowing that it would be highly unlikely that a lynch  would shift off you. It was a gamble I don’t see an early stage eliminator team making, with the higher than normal risk, and the significant payoff of keeping you alive to give control over Shards. 

With that in mind, we’d already received all the information we could have got from actually following through and lynching you. Keeping the lynch on you removed it’s intent to kill anyone else, and so actually reduced information generation. We can see that when we returned the lynch to being a threat to most players, we got significant amounts of information both from Pyromancer and about who other players would vote for under pressure at the end of a cycle.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well. That was thoroughly confusing to read. Also, did I seriously read a post ever Orlok used all caps? I've never seen that before. 

Also, dang, Pyro sounds a lot like I think I did in my early games. 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Well. That was thoroughly confusing to read. Also, did I seriously read a post ever Orlok used all caps? I've never seen that before. 

Also, dang, Pyro sounds a lot like I think I did in my early games. 

I certainly don’t think so, and seriously hope not. I can’t find any posts I’ve made in all caps, and if it did somehow happen to exist, would not have been deliberate.

In an effort to keep discussion going, your suspicions in light of Pyromancer’s claims, @Steeldancer?

I’d also invite further thought from all players on the danger of releasing Cultivation, given its potential to become a very effective tool of manipulation. If we do decide to release it, I suggest we go for it in large numbers, to try to achieve as high as possible a chance to keep it from the eliminators. That said, I think it might even be counterproductive for a villager to hold, in that whoever holds it will be subjected to significant scrutiny and potentially a mislynch.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Never mind, it was Magestar. You remain Capless, Orlok. 

Um, I'm really just not sure what to make of Pyro. Part of the reason he sounds like me in my early games is that he posts a lot and is mildly confusing. That was where my suspicions came in. But if I'm going through possible scenarios, I'm thinking it's most likely that he's a very enthusiastic villager. If that playstyle was used by anyone else, i would suspect them of hiding something. Hm. Problem is, i don't really have any other suspicions. Also, Cultivation is boring. How about we kill Odiums vessel so I can actually remember to take an action and get Odium? 

As promised, i will get up some reads/analysis and some more RP later today. 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm going to start by looking at the lynch candidates. Everyone else will probably follow If I'm still alive next cycle(feel free to call me out if no further analysis on the others is forthcoming next cycle).

Hemalurgic Headshot 

A number of the comments he's made seem almost like that of a spectator or annoucner, rather than a player. For example:

Quote

Very interesting. There is a possibility that all of the careful planning and analysis on the affects of the three released Shards could go out the window.

But will these new end game conditions benefit the village or the Elims?

If Survival hadn't already been claimed by Pyro, I'd suspect HH of being Survival and already having been taken by the win condition, just because his position seems to be that of an outsider to the main factions.

It has been mentioned before that him starting a discussion on a D1 lynch is a very safe thing to do, but I'd like to point out that he never actually took a position on whether we should lynch. he just presented the likely number involved, but as far as I could see never stated whether he felt like lynching someone was a good idea. I'm fairly certain this means something, I'm just not sure what it means. It's such a 'safe'  thing to do that it almost seems like it's meant to intentionally stand out in its safeness. I'd expect an elim to at least participate in his own bit of discussion, but going that route is IKYK.

I don't really know what to think of HH here. I doubt he'd do what he did if he was Khriss or Hoid, but that doesn't mean he's not some kind of non-village entity.

Arinian

Arinian hasn't really said anything that stood out to me yet. He's done a bit of RP and a bit of light analysis. I don't agree with his decision to vote for 'no lynch', but I wouldn't lynch him over it, and it strikes me as somewhat odd that others did find it enough of a reason.


Fifth Scholar

This is the second game in a row in which he tried to play the sacrificial lamb. It probably wasn't done with the intent of earning himself trust, but since it worked for him last time, I can't completely rule out him doing it as an elim to earn trust.

As for the rest of his posts, he seems to be making a lot of strong assumptions about what the various vessels and elims will and have done, which I find odd. His suggestion are certainly possible and even reasonable courses of action, but I don't think they are the only possibilities. his dismissal of the vigilante role also strikes me as somewhat odd, as it's generally considered one of the best village roles, but it wasn't that usefull or the village in the other game he was in, so I can understand that stance.

He also invoked the IKYK around him being or not being Odium, but going deeper in that will just lead down a a rabbit hole leading to IKYKTIKYKIKYKIKYK.

Overall, I have a very slight village lean on him for his attempted self-sacrifice, but it's very small.


TheYoungPyromancer

He claimed Survival. I have no reason not to believe him. Unless survival ends up in containment at the end of this cycle though, I think it's safe to say that pyro is a neutral entity, and not village.

livinglegend

Legend's first day post attracted my attention for the same reason as megasif, but since he did promise further input, I let it slide. He did provide some further thoughts, and tried to get a lynch going int eh closing minutes of the game. His casual mention of having a village gut read on Arinian where he usually doesn't have such a read on him at all strikes me as genuine, and would be indicative of him likely being village, as gut reads are something that (in my experience) are more difficult to have if you're an elim.

Village lean.

Sart 

He made a good point about the dangers of going on the Scholar wagon (which means that if either Sart or scholar ends up being evil, the other one needs to be looked at). I missed the discussion about how breaking silverlight helped Khriss though. @Straw, could you point me at that discussion?

Overall I've got nothing but a big *shrug* regarding his alignment.


Straw 

Seems to be doing Straw things, which somehow always make me suspicious. Maybe this game that suspicion will be right for a change.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Steeldancer, you did see that Pyromancer claimed Survival? Given the above, I think he’s highly unlikely to be a villager. I’m of the view that it is likely that he remained Survival, but acknowledge that it’s possible that he’s Khriss or Hoid.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

... ok I totally missed that. I thought... I don't know what I made of that. Yes, that means he's not village. Yes, it's possible he's Khriss or Hoid, although I sort of doubt it. That would kind of ruin a faction and mess up the balance right off the bat, if he wasn't lying about Survival being corrupted from the beginning. 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I’d also invite further thought from all players on the danger of releasing Cultivation, given its potential to become a very effective tool of manipulation. If we do decide to release it, I suggest we go for it in large numbers, to try to achieve as high as possible a chance to keep it from the eliminators. That said, I think it might even be counterproductive for a villager to hold, in that whoever holds it will be subjected to significant scrutiny and potentially a mislynch.

I don't think a massed run on Cultivation is a good idea, because it means a lot of villagers will end up wasting their action. It does increase the chances of it ending up in the hands of a villager instead of an eliminator, but since it only improves the odds, and not eliminates the chance I'm not sure how useful it will be from an analysis standpoint(since Cultivation can be both village or elim, holding cultivation is NAI, irrespective of the odds involved). That having been said, I do think it would be a good idea for cultivation to get broken out, and in particular for her to end in the hands of a player that does a lot with PM's.

Also, from your second sentence it seems you're suggesting that whoever holds cultivation claims? Because that seems counterproductive, as that means that odium can easily shatter her next cycle if he wants to do that. And if he has no interest in shattering cultivation then breaking her out would not be a priority in the first place.

Edited by randuir
I meant 'does', where I said 'doesn't'.
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.