Anniversary Game: In the Re-Wake of the Koloss

[dowanx]

 

Theoretically, yes, but it depends on their situation. The main advantage that Claincy and I have right now compared to the Spiked is the PMs. However, most people aren't using them. If the Spiked know that and are in communication with the people not in their PMs, they're probably not too terribly worried about us. Most of the information we have is stuff the Spiked have access to, whether because it's in the thread or because it was gained in the Day 1 social experiment mess. I'm nearly certain a Spiked was involved in that, and I have my eye mostly on Ostrich as the culprit for it.

 

If the Spiked aren't too terribly worried about us right now, they'll be focusing on bigger threats to them, whatever those may be. They'll also likely be trying to feed the villagers' worry about us, hoping to get us lynched in the process. We do have information. I'm involved in a lot of PMs. The active ones are not, however, the group ones. They're predominantly one-on-one. And all three of those (it was four, but Kas just died) are with people that I happen to trust. As in, there's a better than 80% chance that they're villagers.

 

This one-on-one information gain is something the Spiked have to worry about for everyone, but if they can stay away from us long enough and manipulate the Villagers, mostly by reminding them that we're still alive, they can get the Villagers to do their job for them. And the great thing? They won't even have to vote for us. They can turn the crowd against us via manipulation both in the thread and in PMs and then sit back and watch us get lynched. Then, when the fingers start pointing at the people who lynched us, the eliminators don't need to worry about any fingers pointing at them. Because they never voted for us.

 

The sort of passive play is the classic Eliminator style. If the Villagers can do your job for you, they look guilty and will continue lynching each other, and you don't have to get your hands dirty in the lynch.

 

The PMs set you up as potential leaders and garnered you a lot of information.  There is more value gained then just what is said in the group PMs, which as you stated is very dangerous to the spiked or very beneficial if you are spiked.  Which is why I am confused they would take out Kas instead of you.

 

With the amount of skilled players here I doubt the classic Eliminator style would be what they are playing.  Although I could be giving the spiked way more credit then deserve.

 

 

 

Why not do so? Because that's an amateur mistake for an eliminator. You're way outnumbered so you don't want to cost your team by dying too early. The best way to avoid death is to stay out of the light. That mostly means avoiding situations exactly like this. There are only 3 people to blame for Sart's death (although I blame Sart himself as well, so 4 people). Escaping that kind of close scrutiny when it's only focused on 3 people is incredibly difficult. I don't think an eliminator would willingly put themselves into that kind of a position just to get a lynch, when it's likely that the villagers were going to lynch someone anyway, with the way we'd all discussed the value of a lynch. It was just who. And if the spiked were, for the most part, okay with the options on the table, they didn't need to get involved at all.

 

I don't think the spiked were ok with the options on the table.  An eliminator that has completely flown under the radar wouldn't put themselves in that situation, but you and Eol haven't flown under the radar.  Why else would Eol last minute vote like that?

 

 

 

Yep. True. That's because I don't think it was. It doesn't make sense. I like things that make sense. So in my mind, that's a eliminator-caused threat kill, a mostly-if-not-entirely-villager-caused lynch, and an eliminator-caused connection kill. I just need to figure out the connection. Which I'll do after work....

 

I'll be very interested in what connection you come up with.

 

 

So? My logic when I told you that still holds up. I said the eliminators probably have an experienced player on the team--one who is considered a threat. If the eliminators only attack the threats in the game, eventually it'll just be new players, relatively new players, and an experienced player left. After the newer players start dying off, but the experienced player is still alive, people will start to get a little suspicious about that experienced player. And then they'll kill them.

 

I really love how you turn this logical argument against me but fail to include the logic that backed it up. Pure eliminator strategy.

 

This was meant to be shown as circumstantial evidence.  You said this is exactly how an eliminator should play and that (at least from what I see) is how it is being played out.  Maybe I am wrong but we will see.

 

 

I can't really address this beyond saying that that's not what happened. I've already said that Eol came to me and asked my opinion on who to vote for. If you want to know why he came to me, it's rather simple. He saw my comment about Kas in the thread and decided that if Kas trusted me enough to come to me, then he could as well. If any of you are wondering what I mean by that, I'm referring to the player who came to me telling me that Eol was going to perform a social experiment but didn't know what to expect. That was Kas. I used no names because I didn't want to give him away. But Eol obviously knew who I meant. Neither of us wanted Kas to die, so that meant one of the other options. He laid down the prospects, I gave my opinion, and that was pretty much that.

 

And, at risk of sounding like a repeating record, all it would've taken was for Sart to defend himself for me to remove that vote. This is my last time saying this, because if people aren't paying attention enough to catch it the first, second, or third time, they're not worthmy time and attention.

 

So you and Eol came up with a plan to last minute vote on Sart?  Would you flesh out why that was a smart plan especially with all of the suspicion on Eol at the time? 

 

 

 

Oh, believe me, if I were Spiked with Eol and he pulled that stunt when it wasn't condoned, I would've thrown him under the bus so hard, so fast. He'd be dead right now, team numbers be darned. I don't deal with teammates who don't listen to the group. I'll instigate their death and use it to my advantage. It's what I did with Joe in LG4, and I'm not opposed at all to doing it again.

 

Condoned is actually the wrong word.  I don't think the spiked group would come up with that plan and risk it.  I do think Eol did the PM Phishing without the consent of the spiked, but the spiked didn't know of it until afterwords.  Eol even said he didn't expect people to find out for a least a couple rounds.  

 

If a member of a spiked group did it without the others knowing I would expect it to play out like it currently is.  At least that is the only reason i can see for Eol's actions. 

 

 

You're right. I'm a much bigger problem. To the eliminators. They want me dead. Preferably by lynch, I'll bet. And who's the first one we see really actively trying to do this? You. Both Hero and Ash already apologized for the mess-up last night. But you've gone through and collected so much "evidence" against me--most of it circumstantial and conveniently twisted to suit your purposes. My vote is still staying on Wyrm, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if I moved it to you later on tonight after I'm able to analyze things closer.

 

Also, just for funsies, here are my top suspects, in order of suspicion:

 

Wyrm

Ament and Ostrich

Ashette

Riew

 

I'm putting them down here because I see no reason not to, and if anything it'll facilitate discussion, which is always good. Plus, better in the thread than in PMs.

 

My purposes are to try to figure out if you can be trusted or not.  I don't think I conveniently twisted anything... Although you have tried to turn my post into something sinister and suspicious.  Why else would I all of a sudden be near the top of your suspect list?  If you have questions about my behavior that you think would benefit everyone to know please ask.  That is all I have done with you and nothing you haven't done to others.

 

I'm Awesome because I'm Awesome!

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I am going to vote for Sarcomere. Hero is at the top of my suspect list, and you supported him, and the only support behind that was that he proclaimed his (supposed) innocence publicly. The next reason isn't really a good one, but you have also been active enough that I can expect a response to this post, which doesn't hold for some other people. Also, Ostrich, your first and only vote, was trying to get a group of people that could try and piece together what Eol was trying to do. I assume this is what you referred to in your post:

I was accused of being a certain role by the same user who accused Winter Cloud. If you have suffered accusations, please contact us.

His suggestions were in line with some other players and made pretty good sense in my mind, especially since we didn't know as a group by that time that nearly everyone had been contacted.

Edited January 7, 2015 by Araris Valerian

[Sarcomere]

Reeco was growing weary of these ridiculous townspeople mispronouncing his name.
 
"IT'S NOT RECCO!" he wanted to scream. "IT'S REECO."
 
But screaming would be bad for business, Reeco reflected, as he took another order and started mechanically kneading dough. Perhaps he was judging the townspeople a bit too harshly. After all, he couldn't expect their thick tongues to be able to do justice to the melodic vowels of his homeland.
 
I'm voting for Ostrich again. I strongly suspect that Ostrich is Spiked. 

I questioned Ostrich's post early on Day 1 that suggested people who were falsely accused contact him and Winter Cloud. I'm also suspecting Winter Cloud, because Ostrich implied in his post that both of them were accused of being the same role. Why did they trust each other enough to share this information in the first place? They may both be Spiked. 

Later, Kas posted that my accusation had merit and that Wilson perhaps overlooked it. Ostrich never responded to our accusations and instead shifted attention away from himself when he voted for Eoldren. This leads me to believe that Ostrich is hiding something. 
 
Furthermore, last night, Kas put Ostrich on a list of people he suspected. As you all know, Kas was killed by the Spiked. I think that, for the Spiked, killing an experienced player and someone who suspected one of their members would be killing two birds with one stone.
 
As to Araris's accusations against me:
 
Why would I associate myself with Hero, already strongly suspected, if I didn't think that he was innocent? I also still feel that one of the main reasons Hero was targeted was because he chose not to vote early on. Well, Hero didn't vote on Day 1, yes. But a lot of people didn't vote on Day 1. I was convinced that Hero was just being voted for because he was the only one who was very vocal about not voting. Araris, you're putting me under suspicion for trusting somebody. 

 

As I seem to recall, Araris retracted his vote for Hero shortly after I posted reasons why I thought Hero was innocent. Why the sudden turnaround?

[ostrichofevil he/him]

I didn't tell Winter Cloud or Maill which role I was accused of being until I knew that they were both accused by Eoldren.  I have mostly now lost my suspicions for Eoldren since he has shown a lot of solid reasoning on why he is Village.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

My vote on Hero was a response to the situation where Hero and Eol were the two main suspects and if we had a lynch at that moment in time then I preferred Hero. Eol was about to explain himself. That explanation got rid of the whole reason for my first vote since there was no longer a decision between 2 people. I also accept that Ostrich has done some more suspicious things since cycle one, I just wanted to see if you had any other reasons for voting that way. We need more discussion. The cycle isn't half over yet and we still haven't heard from several people so far.

[Claincy he/him]

First up, a quick vote summary:
Ostrich(2) - Eoladdin, Reeco

Eoladdin(2) - Herwynbe, Riew
Ashette(1) - Wilson<1>, Maill
Macen(1) - Seonid
Wyra(1) - Wilson<2>
Wilson(1) - dowanx
Peng(1) - Wyra<2>
Reeco(1) - Aralis

Jain(1) - Claincy

Herwynbe(0) - Wyra<1>

 

 

I live to serve.... I knew it was a good thing I saved my lunch break for a bit later in the day....

 

 

Theoretically, yes, but it depends on their situation. The main advantage that Claincy and I have right now compared to the Spiked is the PMs. However, most people aren't using them. If the Spiked know that and are in communication with the people not in their PMs, they're probably not too terribly worried about us. Most of the information we have is stuff the Spiked have access to, whether because it's in the thread or because it was gained in the Day 1 social experiment mess. I'm nearly certain a Spiked was involved in that, and I have my eye mostly on Ostrich as the culprit for it.

 

If the Spiked aren't too terribly worried about us right now, they'll be focusing on bigger threats to them, whatever those may be. They'll also likely be trying to feed the villagers' worry about us, hoping to get us lynched in the process. We do have information. I'm involved in a lot of PMs. The active ones are not, however, the group ones. They're predominantly one-on-one. And all three of those (it was four, but Kas just died) are with people that I happen to trust. As in, there's a better than 80% chance that they're villagers.

Another point on this is that of all the players in the game, the most prominent ones are the most likely to be lurched. If the spiked wanted to make sure they got a kill that might be a factor in leaving us alone. Perhaps more importantly if Wilson or I were a seeker we would have been very unlikely to put ourselves in this position at this point in the game so if they want to eliminate the seeker/s as fast as possible (which would make sense) that would be another reason to be targeting other players. Combining these thoughts with what Wilson already said I'm not particularly surprised that we aren't dead yet. Pleased, but not overly surprised.

 

I still don't think Wilson is spiked, though I am marginally less sure about that than I was before, hopefully a seeker is sure by now.

 

I am quite uncertain about Eol at this point. I don't think he's the most suspicious player at the moment, but to some extent I'm tempted to vote for him anyway. Before you start clamoring for my head let me explain: Eol has been rather involved and connected with some of the other players under suspicion and with both being voted for and voting himself. And there was the whole tineye thing and more importantly how everyone responded to it. Because of all that I think that finding out whether he is a villager or spiked for certain would give us a wealth of information which makes him a tempting target.

 

I am also suspicious of Jain, a large part of my suspicion is because of this (I know it was a little while ago but it wasn't till a little later that this really stuck out to me):

Pardon me for not explaining it clearly. I wasn't exactly "gung-ho" in my enthusiasm to get everyone started. I just wanted to nudge people into getting a conversation started. Also, by the time I had checked in on the forum again on Day 1, we already had a pretty good discussion going, and since I really only wanted to get it started, I wasn't particularly inclined in joining.

Promoting that there should be a discussion but deciding not to take part in it is decidedly unhelpful. I'd really like to hear some of your thoughts.

 

I don't think Hero is spiked either, though the reasons for that haven't changed since I last posted about that.

 

I am also somewhat suspicious of Ashette, Ostrich, Winter and maybe Peng, though I think Peng is just genuinely borderline inactive.

[Ashiok]

Ok, I've given up on that essay, and wilson never sent me that PM. Oh well.

 

Things I'm assuming based on prior experience:

 
between 5-7 eliminators.

Eliminator seeker

Eliminator lurcher

Experienced and inexperienced Eliminators

 

With these in mind, my eyes go to Ostrich and Sarcomere

@  Ostrich and WC knowing that they had both been accused of a role: It's a logical step to tell somebody, especially if you're PMing with them. 

"I was accused of being a role."

"Really? Me too. Role X?"

"Yep. Strange"

 

@ spiked killing Kas b/c he was suspicious of ostrich: No. No and no. That's exactly what eliminators don't do. Public suspicions of spiked don't lead to killings like that. It puts too much suspicion on those listed. 

 

I dunno, those two things together aren't enough to cement his suspicion in my mind...

 

Now, onto explaining how Claincy and Wilson controlling PMs is good and bad:

 

Good: Control into the hands of two individuals, They've probably been checked by a seeker already

Cons: Extremely good place for Eliminators to be, they gain access to almost all the PMs. It would be fairly simple to gain that position of power early on, WIlson does it almost every game, good or evil

 

 

I have no idea what I'm even saying anymore, I need to sleep more. 

[little wilson she/her]

Ash, I'll send that PM in just a bit. I've been working on this nice long essay since I got home from work....

 

These seem like some good points. Regarding Wyrm, I might want to read through that MR2 game…

 
 MR3. He (and Kas, in a PM) corrected me. It’s Sart’s Rithmatist game.
 

At the same time, I’ll point out, Wilson, that you've been reacting very aggressively against any accusations against you. You pull out speculations against players who blame you and then try to turn the discussion against them (especially Wyrm, here).

  
If I’ve seemed aggressive, I apologize. That’s not my intent. As for the second part here, it’s pretty standard for me to defend myself and address different aspects of accusations, particularly when I vehemently disagree with those accusations. I’ll point out logical inconsistencies, because...well...logic is a big thing for me. It can make or break an argument.
 

This kind of contradicts what you've been saying about yourself in-thread ("You guys can't really trust me.", "Take what I say with a pinch of salt", etc.) Your suspect list is simply composed of the people who have accused you at one point or another. (well, mostly)

 
 ...I haven’t been saying that about myself, to my knowledge. Link, please? I’ve probably indicated that I understand that people don’t trust me, but I haven’t said that they can’t. Or shouldn’t. Or should take what I say with a grain of salt (although, again, I understand if people do. Because not everyone trusts me. Which happens.)
 
About my suspect list. Out of the five people mentioned, two have never mentioned any suspicion of me, one said that he understood why others would be suspicious of me and another but that he himself was suspicious of others, one apologized for a misaccusation (which was placed after I’d already stated I was suspicious of him), and one made a highly suspicious post trying to get a group organizer killed (regardless of it being me or not). I try to keep my own personal feelings out of my reasonings for suspects. I understand that I’m not always successful in that endeavor, but I think in this case, I’ve done pretty well.

 

Don't get me wrong. I'm definitely not accusing you of being an eliminator here (if you've been PM networking as much as you say, the eliminators would probably have more info and the kills wouldn't be going around so wildly). Just don’t point a gun at players who are simply discussing possibilities.

 
Oh, I love discussion. When everyone participates, it helps sift out the eliminators. Not always, but oftentimes.

 

The PMs set you up as potential leaders and garnered you a lot of information.  There is more value gained then just what is said in the group PMs, which as you stated is very dangerous to the spiked or very beneficial if you are spiked.  Which is why I am confused they would take out Kas instead of you.

 
 You and me both. Like I said, I expected one of two people to get hit. Me or someone else (again, I’m not referring to Claincy). The fact that that didn’t happen has me rather confused, because I seriously have no idea why they hit Kas. All I know is that it does not make sense for it to be a threat kill.

There are 6 other players who are better targets as threats than Kas. Me, Wyrm, Ren, Claincy, Maill, and Joe. Not all of us could be Spiked. Not even half of those are Spiked, I’d bet. So no, Kas wasn’t a threat kill. Kas was something else. Perhaps random. Perhaps a connection, but if it’s a connection, I can’t see it, probably because I don’t have all the pieces necessary--like knowledge of who exactly he was in communication with. The only connection I can see is Wyrm, but I’m skeptical about following that one out as far as I can, because the last time I went and analyzed a player’s posts in a game, I ended up getting them lynched and they were innocent. And they weren’t very happy with me about it. I’d rather not have a repeat of that.
 
 

With the amount of skilled players here I doubt the classic Eliminator style would be what they are playing.  Although I could be giving the spiked way more credit then deserve.

 
Don’t misunderstand me. When I say “classic Eliminator style,” I’m not meaning their entire playstyle in the game. I mean when it comes to a lynch. If they don’t have to get their hands dirty directly, most Eliminators aren’t going to get involved. Especially with something as dangerous as this. Let me lay this out two scenarios for you. Both of these scenarios will have a constant of Claincy and I being villagers. Obviously, the Eliminators will know this.
 
 
Scenario 1
The Eliminators decide to kill me tomorrow night. In the morning, when I am found dead, the villagers say “Well, that’s no surprise. Good to know she’s a villager. I guess we can pay more attention to those people she was suspicious of and also keep up with the discussion on finding these spiked” (Or something along those lines). The next night, Claincy dies. Once again, the village goes “That’s no surprise” and keeps on the hunt. They may lynch a few villagers mistakenly, but all the while, they’re getting closer and closer to finding the Spiked. They’re able to stay focused on the task. Whether or not they succeed is about how well the Spiked can stay hidden.
 
 
Scenario 2
The Eliminators decide not to kill us at night. The start manipulating the villagers very subtly in PMs, slowly turning the villagers against us. By about Cycle 4 of every night someone different dying and no kill being blocked, it’s obvious that the Spiked aren’t going after us, and the Villagers begins to think that, ya know, maybe they really are Spiked. They really could be. It’s the only thing that makes sense. They should be dead by now, but they’re not, and they haven’t even been attacked, and we’re all trusting them, but we’ve heard that they’re good at this, so they could be manipulating us really well and OH MY GOSH, THEY’RE TOTALLY SPIKED. The Villagers are the ones to bring this up so much in the thread and come to this full conclusion. This is all the result of days of manipulation on the part of the Spiked. They’ve worked very hard to make this happen, and they’re quite pleased to see their hard work paying off.
 
I’m lynched first. The Eliminators do not participate in that lynch. After I’m dead, the Village is shocked to find out that I’m a Villager. But, there’s another target. Claincy’s still alive. It’s got to be him. Sure it wasn’t Wilson, but he must’ve been manipulating her well, which is why she didn’t notice that he was Spiked, and he was keeping her alive because he had her wrapped around his little finger. Not point in killing her then. It’s got to be him. The next day, Claincy’s lynched. Some of the Eliminators will participate in this lynch. Others will sit back and say “I’m not sure that he’s really Spiked, guys; I think you might be making a mistake.” After Claincy dies, the Village is once again shocked to discover he’s a Villager.
 
They start pointing fingers at each other. Mostly at the people who started it--the ones who first vocalized in the thread that we must be Spiked. Those people get lynched. They’re not Eliminators. More fingers point, but nobody is really pointing at the spiked because they stayed out of it. In fact, some people might even rally behind a few of them, because they didn’t participate at all--in fact, maybe some of them tried to calm the Villagers down and get them to not lynch us. These people have got to be good, right? They knew. The Village implodes, and no one is really paying attention to the task at hand and really focused on finding the Spiked (and the ones who are are getting picked off at night), because they’ve all fallen victim to manipulation and gotten sucked into it. They lynch villager after villager, and all the while, the Eliminators are killing people off each night, narrowing the field, getting closer and closer to victory each day.

 
 
Tell me, which scenario do you think the Spiked are more likely to choose? The one that makes the Villagers go “That’s no surprise,” and stay on the hunt, or the one that turns the village on itself and makes them attack each other? That’s a rhetorical question, because I think we all know the answer.
 
 

I don't think the spiked were ok with the options on the table.  An eliminator that has completely flown under the radar wouldn't put themselves in that situation, but you and Eol haven't flown under the radar. Why else would Eol last minute vote like that?

 
You don’t? I sure do. I think there was a maximum of one Spiked on the table, and I’m nearly certain the Spiked have a vote manipulation role at their disposal. There were 4 lynch options, although if you count Dom, since the second vote on him got dropped late, there were technically 5. Satrams, Karnad, Hero, Ash, and Dom. Satrams and Karnad both are confirmed innocent. Dom is practically a guarantee to be a villager, but maybe not. Even if he is, the Spiked wouldn’t care that he’s on the table, since he’s inactive. My gut tells me that Hero is clean. And that just leaves Ash, who may or may not be spiked. One out of five. That’s pretty low odds. And with a vote manipulation role, if the person is checking constantly, they can make sure that in case their teammate looks like they’re going to get lynched, they can mess with it to make it a tie.
 
So no, I don’t think the Spiked were worried about the vote.
 
I never fly under the radar in terms of not standing out. Not anymore, anyway. I’m far too proactive, especially lately. LG6 corrupted me in terms of getting heavily involved. If you want to see Evil!Wilson flying under the radar in terms of suspicion but not flying under the radar in terms of involvement, go take a look at LG9. Even then, I held to the shadows as much as I could, because I far prefer mindgames and one-on-one manipulation to standing out in the open and keeping the crap from hitting me.
 
Why would Eol vote last minute like that? He’d be better to answer that one, but I just want to point out one thing: it wasn’t last minute. You make it sound like he voted 30 minutes before the rollover, not giving Sart any time at all to respond. He didn’t. It was 2 hours before, and Sart was online looking at the thread (seriously, why do people keep overlooking this!? It’s not a pointless, irrelevant fact).
 
 

I'll be very interested in what connection you come up with.

 
 Yeah, I may have overestimated my skill. And my patience. I really just want to watch Arrow right now and have a night to myself where I can eat far too much ice cream and watch a good-looking guy with a bow (I’m nothing if not a straight female with a slight obsession with bows and arrows )
 
 

This was meant to be shown as circumstantial evidence.  You said this is exactly how an eliminator should play and that (at least from what I see) is how it is being played out.  Maybe I am wrong but we will see.

 
Um. I believe my exact wording was that it would be “better to spread out the kills than focus on one group.” I didn’t say that’s how they should play, although it is the way that makes the most sense. I also disagree with calculating a villager-controlled lynch into that evidence, but that’s just me...
 
 

So you and Eol came up with a plan to last minute vote on Sart?  Would you flesh out why that was a smart plan especially with all of the suspicion on Eol at the time?

 
Once again, it wasn’t last minute, and most of the true suspicion on Eol had died down by then, thanks to his explanation--an explanation, by the way, that made sense given the context of what happened. He even told Kas, a confirmed innocent, that he was going to try something. I don’t care that he didn’t tell Kas what he was going to do. The fact is that he told him, and a Spiked would have no reason to tell an innocent. I also happen to know that he learned the identity of a Tineye through his experiment. Yet no Tineye was attacked last night. Not much evidence, but it’s some. Mostly, though, I know that no competent eliminator team would let someone try something like that, knowing that it would put such high suspicion on them, regardless of their role.
 
 

Condoned is actually the wrong word.  I don't think the spiked group would come up with that plan and risk it.  I do think Eol did the PM Phishing without the consent of the spiked, but the spiked didn't know of it until afterwords.  Eol even said he didn't expect people to find out for a least a couple rounds.
 
If a member of a spiked group did it without the others knowing I would expect it to play out like it currently is.  At least that is the only reason i can see for Eol's actions.

 
No, I knew exactly what you meant, and my response was based on that. If Eol and I were both spiked, and he pulled a stunt like that that was not condoned, the second I found out what happened and who was behind it, I would not have relented until he was dead. I would have continued casting suspicion on him--particularly in PMs. I don’t care if Eol said he didn’t think people would find out for a few rounds. The fact is that they did, and I would’ve tossed him aside.
 
I see a far simpler reason for Eol’s actions: he’s a clean villager who made a mistake and he’s defended himself at least well enough to keep the villagers from lynching him quite yet even though he still has suspicion on him from it. If he’s spiked, I don’t see how he’s still alive, since clearly he did it so he would die, so why isn’t he dead yet? Why did he even defend himself yesterday? He was set to be lynched and then he defended himself. So if there’s any explanation that literally does not make any sense whatsoever it’s that he is spiked. I would almost stake my life on it. In fact, you know what? I will. I’m so certain that Eol isn’t spiked that if he gets lynched today and he is, I will gladly submit myself to the chopping block tomorrow. I’ll even cast the first vote on myself, Kas-style.
 
 

My purposes are to try to figure out if you can be trusted or not.  I don't think I conveniently twisted anything... Although you have tried to turn my post into something sinister and suspicious.

 
Conveniently omitted portions of my logic and wording that don’t support your argument (as in the case with the threat kills) is twisting things, even if you deny it. And I didn’t turn your post into anything. I picked it apart logically. Using logic. It’s not my fault it ended up looking sinister and suspicious.
 
 

Why else would I all of a sudden be near the top of your suspect list?

 
Um. Perhaps because your post was illogical and based mostly on circumstantial evidence, and I was expecting the Eliminators to pull something like this, even if I never vocalized it (which I didn’t vocalize it, because you never know whose hands those words will get into, and if it gets into the Eliminators hands, what I was expecting to happen all of a sudden would never happen). I’m suspicious of you because you’re suspicious.
 
 

If you have questions about my behavior that you think would benefit everyone to know please ask.  That is all I have done with you and nothing you haven't done to others.

No particular questions. Though if you’d like to respond again, I’ll be happy to continue the debate. It’s been refreshing.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Maybe we should lynch you wilson, just so we don't have to read a massive wall of text every time you make a post .

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Okay, I can finally post now.

 

I am also suspicious of Jain, a large part of my suspicion is because of this (I know it was a little while ago but it wasn't till a little later that this really stuck out to me):

Promoting that there should be a discussion but deciding not to take part in it is decidedly unhelpful. I'd really like to hear some of your thoughts.

 

Currently, I'm in China - and as I've said before in other place - the WiFi here is pretty limited, so I only get a few short windows in a day to check in on whats happening here, so I won't be able to participate a lot in the main discussions.

 

Kas, in my view, was probably killed because he' such a dangerous player. For those of you who haven't seen him in action, look at the Eliminator doc for Long Game 5, or any of the other games he's played. There's also the possibility that Kas accidentally came into contact with an Eliminator and perhaps got too daring, and as a result got executed. Kas tends to play a bit more daringly when he's a vanilla (he said so himself in previous games) and maybe he took one risk too many.

 

Peng, you still haven't posted or given reason for your inactivity. Care to come out?

 

Edit: (Sigh)

Edited January 7, 2015 by Lightsworn Panda

[Lord Pifferdoo he/him]

Baron Von Piffertiff stood in the center of the street, observing a pair of guards lift away another body. Teys was giving him a general report on what he had found out, but the Baron wasn't listening anymore. One murder could be a strike of passion. However, with the koloss approaching and the saboteurs infiltrating the town, nothing was an accident anymore. Why, this morning the Baron had come across a baker claiming that the saboteurs had stolen all of his grain. Preposterous, although the Baron did instruct Teys to look out for any wheat and wheat by-products at the scene of any future murders. 

 

"Now, Baron, what's really interesting is this here multi-coloured response. These dyes are expensive, especially blue, and as a result I believe we can track down the killer! You see, blue dye can only come from-"

 

"Captain Teys, the message-writer may not be the killer, and even if he or she was, they could have easily stolen that dye. Don't jump to conclusions. If you do, good people get hung for no good reason. And I don't want that happening again. Understand?"

 

Captain Teys's had never seen the Baron act this way, and spluttered a "Yes, Baron." Most people only knew the Baron as a quiet man who hardly ever left his estate, and wrote books for a living. Some knew him as an aloof aristocrat, going through stewards and servants quicker than the ash could fall. Nobody knew him like this, serious and with such a look in his eye. That look that made men part crowds on their way to do something heroic. 

 

Or it could be the look of someone that is completely done.

 

Baron Von Piffertiff did something that day that no-one in town had ever seen him do. He went to a tavern and ordered something so alcoholic that if you are under 21 and you simply read the name of it, you'll be arrested faster than you can scream "It's just reading? How is this possible? What is this, Fahrenheit 451?"

Needless to say, the villagers were quite shocked.

[Herowannabe he/him]

 

Once again, it wasn’t last minute, and most of the true suspicion on Eol had died down by then, thanks to his explanation--an explanation, by the way, that made sense given the context of what happened. He even told Kas, a confirmed innocent, that he was going to try something. I don’t care that he didn’t tell Kas what he was going to do. The fact is that he told him, and a Spiked would have no reason to tell an innocent. I also happen to know that he learned the identity of a Tineye through his experiment. Yet no Tineye was attacked last night. Not much evidence, but it’s some. Mostly, though, I know that no competent eliminator team would let someone try something like that, knowing that it would put such high suspicion on them, regardless of their role.

Good points, those. I don't agree that his explanation was very convincing, but the fact that he told Kas (I hadn't realized that that was who he told) ahead of time is huge. I hereby withdraw my vote for Eolhondras, though now I'm at a loss as to who to vote for. While I still suspect Wilson and Wyrm slightly more than most, I don't suspect either of them enough to try to have them lynched. 

[Renegade he/him]

Ugh… I hate staying up late.  Although, it was completely my fault for reading Firefight for 6 hours or so…

First of all, with the Eolhondras thing, this is turning into so much of an “I know you know” thing that it’s kind of pointless for the Spiked to have done such a thing.  The Spiked, if I may add, did not target one of the players that Eol claims to have PM’d.  So, I’d guess that they do not have access to his information, or they’re just trying to hold off on lynching the Tineye to make Eol not look as immediately suspicious as a Spiked.  Right now, I’m leaning towards Eol telling the truth on this one, but it definitely does not mean that we should trust him.

 

My suspicion list is, well... rather inconclusive at this time.  I’d like to flag Ash, because of your last post.  I’m not sure why you’re assuming that there’s an Eliminator Seeker and Lurcher, and that there’s a mix of players.  Yes, probability-wise, there is likely going to be at least one or two experienced players on a team, but I don’t think it’s much help to make any assumptions based off that.  Also, you still haven’t voted yet (is this the whole “pulling the trigger” thing?), and I’m not really sure what you mean with by point against Winter Cloud and Ostrich.

 

I’m also wondering why Jain’s putting another vote on someone who is unlikely to show up.  Not that I don’t suspect Peng either, but it’s a rather convenient place to keep your vote for the remainder of the turn.

 

I’d really just like some more activity from… well, a lot of people, but I’d especially like some input from those who don't give many reasons for their lynch votes, or don't vote at all.  (Maill, for instance, wrote up a long post on the Tineye messages, but really only put one sentence about suspicions.)  If we can't get a good indication of your suspicion reasoning, we can't decide whether you're Spiked or not!

[dowanx]

 

 

Conveniently omitted portions of my logic and wording that don’t support your argument (as in the case with the threat kills) is twisting things, even if you deny it. And I didn’t turn your post into anything. I picked it apart logically. Using logic. It’s not my fault it ended up looking sinister and suspicious.

 

If I left something out when quoting you please let me know because that is not what I intended.  I presented what I thought were valid points and needed to be addressed.

 

You assumed a leadership type role and then started showing inconsistencies.  Maybe those inconsistencies didn't appear like inconsistencies to you, but you have to remember we don't have access to all of the information you do.  You only started offering up details when I started my earlier posts.  You asked for our trust without really providing us a reason to trust.  I am not asking you to tell us a role or anything (that would be very stupid to do and not beneficial), but don't act a way that might be perceived as suspicious.

 

You have addressed almost all of the points so... Wilson.

 

I do think we need more discussion from other people.  The cycle is half way over and not nearly enough talking as been going on to make an informed vote.

 

BTW I must say these games are pretty fun although it is going to be horrible for my schooling... I spent all day today reading this forum instead of paying attention in class!  On a side note how to do you get it so when you are quoting someone it says *player* said.

 

I'm Awesome because I'm Awesome!

[Araris Valerian he/him]

There is a button under each post that says quote, its in the bottom right hand corner of that post.

I totally understand how you feel about school. I had a work period today for reading Handmaid's Tale and I spent it all reading posts in this thread instead.

Edited January 7, 2015 by Araris Valerian

[little wilson she/her]

The Spiked, if I may add, did not target one of the players that Eol claims to have PM’d.  So, I’d guess that they do not have access to his information, or they’re just trying to hold off on lynching the Tineye to make Eol not look as immediately suspicious as a Spiked.  Right now, I’m leaning towards Eol telling the truth on this one, but it definitely does not mean that we should trust him.

 

Well, Kas was technically already in communication with Eol, so while Eol didn't PM him for the social experiment, they were in communication. Also, the Tineye, unfortunately, was involved in the role reveal. Not just with Eol. Multiple people know that person's identity, and I'm fairly certain that there was a Spiked involved, so it's only a matter of time before the Tineye gets attacked.

 

BTW I must say these games are pretty fun although it is going to be horrible for my schooling... I spent all day today reading this forum instead of paying attention in class!  On a side note how to do you get it so when you are quoting someone it says *player* said.

 

I know exactly what you mean. It's killer hard to stay focused at work. And as for quoting. Araris mentioned the quote button. There's also the multiquote function, but that's not available on the mobile site. If you're copy and pasting the text, the BBCode is [.quote name="insert name here".] removing the periods. And then closing the html after the quote with [/quote.] (also removing the period)

[Wyrmhero he/him]

I'm going to remove my vote from Peng, since it doesn't look like he's turning up, and place it on Jain. Why did you just add an additional vote for someone who is - for the most part - inactive, instead of placing it elsewhere? I wouldn't be suspicious of it if it was the first vote on him, but when it's a lynch-threatening vote on an inactive, it starts to look a little strange to me.

Edited January 7, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Claincy he/him]

Okay, I can finally post now.

 

 

Currently, I'm in China - and as I've said before in other place - the WiFi here is pretty limited, so I only get a few short windows in a day to check in on whats happening here, so I won't be able to participate a lot in the main discussions.

On the 4th of January when all this discussion was going on you said you were "in the Melbourne timezone" were you not in China at that point? I'm a little confused on this point.

[Ashiok]

My suspicion list is, well... rather inconclusive at this time.  I’d like to flag Ash, because of your last post.  I’m not sure why you’re assuming that there’s an Eliminator Seeker and Lurcher, and that there’s a mix of players.  Yes, probability-wise, there is likely going to be at least one or two experienced players on a team, but I don’t think it’s much help to make any assumptions based off that.

 

Also, you still haven’t voted yet (is this the whole “pulling the trigger” thing?),

 

and I’m not really sure what you mean with by point against Winter Cloud and Ostrich.

I was calling eliminator Seeker/Lurcher because that's classic eliminator role distribution, but depending on how hard Meta's going to troll us, it could be any role combination.

 

No, it's just the I forget/ I don't know who to vote. I'm very indecisive...

 

The Winter Cloud and Ostrich point wasn't a point against, just an observation... It's basically what happened to me at one point. I said that I had had a strange conversation (I said this in my group PM), and Wilson told me that I wasn't the only one. It could've easily happened that way for them, so without further evidence for their collaboration, that idea is not exactly going to hold up.

[Seonid he/him]

So...I totally spent last night reading Order of the Stick instead of planning my lesson for today. That's going to suck...

 

But it also meant that I didn't actually get the substantive comment out that I promised. Sorry about that. And it looks like I won't be able to do much of that today, either. I'll try to get something out during my lunch break (in about 9 hours), but I can't promise anything...

 

Hopefully tomorrow is better.

[Unodus he/him]

Odustren analysed the crime scene for the hundreth time- looking for anything that would incriminate the true killer. Again, nothing stood out- the killer hadn't left anything traceable.  As he turned to go waste another night in the Tavern- he overheard the General and the Baron say something interesting...-

"Now, Baron, what's really interesting is this here multi-coloured response. These dyes are expensive, especially blue, and as a result I believe we can track down the killer! You see, blue dye can only come from-"

The dyes...? Now that he mentioned it, the colours did seem unsual..

Of course! Now that he looked closer at the message- he could recognise that all the colours of the message were from his own paints!

The person who had left this puzzle must have been the one who had stolen the paints from him. Or atleast, they had been passed onto the writer by the elusive thief. 

Odustren clenched his fist in anger at the thought of his precious paints being wasted for such ridiculing puzzles. As soon as he caught the guy who had put down these messages, he'd....

Odustren didn't finish that train of thought, instead he trudged down to the tavern- and bought the strongest drink he could afford- muttering to himself, and plotting malicous punishments for the thief. If only he could work the messages true meaning, if there was one- perhaps he could work out why it was stolen from him in the first place....

[little wilson she/her]

I received an interesting PM last night from a player requesting information regarding why Kas died. This request was in the form of an information exchange. They give me their information, I give them mine. However, they did not bring anything of real value to the table. I still asked them what piece of information they would like. They could've picked anything at all. But they picked that.

 

To give some reference of time, this PM came through after I'd posted in thread saying I couldn't find any connection. And we all know I've been the only one saying that the Kas kill wasn't a threat kill. Yet this question leads me to think that someone else agrees. If they agree, why aren't they saying anything in the thread? Wouldn't it be better to have two or more minds working to find the connection? After all, if it's a connection kill and we find the right link, we've found an eliminator.

 

The only reason I can see for why this person isn't saying anything vocally, but still asked for this information is because they wanted to know exactly what I had. Who would this information benefit the most? Well, if I'm right about it being a connection kill, that information will definitely benefit the Spiked most of all, because it would tell them how close I am to finding one of them.

 

I'm not sure I want to reveal this person's identity quite yet. However, two of my trusted sources know who it is, so if I die before I'm able to, one of them can release it. Mostly, I wanted to see what people think about this. The person who asked it is under a fair bit of suspicion from a variety of people.

 

And to be honest, I'm tempted to switch my vote from Wyrm to this person, but I'd like to hear thoughts first, since the request could be an innocent one. So, what does everyone think?

[Peng the Just he/him]

I would like to apologize for my relative inactivity thus far. I've been traveling. I only had time to look at the thread briefly and cast a vote for someone who said they were going to be inactive. I will be looking at the posts more closely then and come back with a more educated vote this cycle.

 

Edit:

Alright, I looked over the thread some. As for my reasoning for voting Dom, I didn't really know who to suspect because I hadn't kept track of everything. I simply voted for an inactive, because if we kill an innocent inactive, we don't lose anything besides the lynch opportunity for this cycle and still might hit a spiked.

 

Peng stood atop his rooftop and screamed to the town. He did this often, usually shouting things like "When I was your age, we didn't have any of these fancy refined metals. We had to eat dirt and hope for the best" and "get off my lawn." This time however, it was an accusation. "Eolhandras!" he yelled. "Why are you fishing for infromation from everyone?

 

The fact of the matter is this: no one has done anything NEAR as suspicious as what eolhandras has done thus far in the game. I think our primary logic for not killing him last cycle was "If he was spiked, why would he do something so crazy and risky?" Here's my question: If he was innocent, why would he do something so crazy and risky? it comes down to three possiblities in my mind:

1. Eolhandras is not spiked. He is a regular villager with no abilities. Because he had no abilities, he tried to phish for info to make the game more interesting. I don't really feel bad about killing him if this is the case. He has no abilities and took a risk, knowing very well that it could result in his lynching.

2. Eolhandras is spiked (possibly with a role.) Acting on his own, without the direction of the other eliminators, he ran his phishing scam to try to get information.

3. Eolhandras is a spiked without a role, possibly the only one without a role. The eliminators decided to run this phishing scam to get info, and used eolhandras to run it because his life is less valuable to them.

Edited January 7, 2015 by jasonpenguin

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, my opinion is that Kas was killed because his disagreement with Hero was generating a lot of voting and discussion and other useful things. My top two suspicions are of Hero, for all of the reasons that have already been stated, and for Eol, because even if wilson would have thrown him under the bus for pulling a stunt like that, that was the response everyone gave him. He got several votes in a very short period of time. Then, when he gave his explanation, everyone's opinions changed, so if the spiked still were upset with him, splitting away from everyone like that would mark them as off. Regardless of how many people Eol guess incorrectly with, he almost certainly learned some info from his experiment, and the arguments about suiciding a player to gain info like that that were made during the first cycle still apply to him, he just managed to avoid getting killed. I can come back online around 5:30 Pacific Time and then shortly before the cycle ends. Most likely I will vote for one of these two, even if it is last minute and decides a lynch.

[WeiryWriter he/him]

I'm going to retract my vote for Eol, Wilson has pretty much convinced me that he's a Villager. I'm going to hold off on my next vote as I'm not entirely sure who I want to vote for.