Elandera
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Everything posted by Elandera
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Vote count: Coop (5) - Randuir, Lumgol, Rath, Devotary, Sart Lumgol (1) - Levitaph Fifth (2) - Squeeves, Fura Sart (5) - Elandera, CadCom, Drapper, Fifth, Coop Rath (1) - Lopen I'm content to leave it at a tie. I feel there are valid reasons for both lynches, especially for a D1 lynch. It would also allow for Sart's claim to be proved, with potential consequences if he's lying. It's also distant enough that if people wanted to just place a vote on someone random without a vote on them currently, it shouldn't cause a problem.
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It was the bolded sentence. It might have been facetious, but it gave me a bad vibe. I tend to not like comments that tell me to not analyse and just go along with a bandwagon. Especially when that bandwagon seems based on weird reasoning.
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This seems a harsh reaction to a post. CadCom said he'd be busy when he signed up, and he wasn't the only one to have such a post. My own was basically what CadCom said, but with some RP attached. Dr Drapper's first post was something to the order of he'd post more when he found something funny (and his second was "hmmmm"). In a game where activity matters for function, a simple checking in post is fine to me, especially that early on in the turn. It seems more village indicative that they want to at least get some progress toward bonding. There's also the matter of meta to consider here, where it's fairly common for poke votes to be placed on people who haven't submitted any post. Also, the bolded section seems very pushy and in many ways against what would be useful. Reviewing posts is always useful, and helps avoid unnecessary bandwagoning. Sart
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mafia championship A Knock from Outside the Cosmere
Elandera replied to Metacognition's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I'm really sorry to do this, but I've had some stuff come up that would limit my time and availability to participate in the tournament. I'll have to withdraw. Thanks for the votes, though. Joe's vote can stay on Fura, if that's what he wishes. -
@Sart, can we get links to the docs?
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I'll be honest, while I see some justification for the votes on Lum, her posts seem more like conjecture and attempts at getting discussion going more than anything. Voting on her because she wasn't doing player analysis this early is a stretch to say the least. What was there to analyze? (At this point, there is more content, but the only analysis has been focused on Lum for not analyzing). This might not be the right reason, but Lum has also been lynched early on in a lot of her games for being relatively new. Last time, she deserved it, but the "elim behavior" being pointed out this time seem more similar to her style when she was lynched as village.
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There were a few points where I thought for sure I'd be discovered. Especially when I lied about using acid on CadCom. You should see my notes in the elim doc when that happened. My only saving grace was Sart's pre-determined mechanic. I still have no idea how none of you decided that was suspicious enough.
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Ugh! Soo close!! I can't believe it came down to a coin toss. Congratulations Steel (and the rest of the Soldiers)! I was really hoping you'd use acid on Snipexe, but figured you'd go with the contingency option. RNG was just not with us this game. To @Lumgol and @Cadmium Compounder, I'm sorry you both died so early. Especially CadCom for bussing you so early. This was such a fun game. Thanks @Sart for GMing!
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If we are relatively certain someone is Sja-anat, we should be focusing on them. If we can remove their lives, they will have fewer conversions, thus making it so we have fewer converts to find in the first place. But overall, I think we should just focus on finding the elims. Sometimes it can be difficult to find a particular role among many, but it is fairly easy to find people who are suspicious. I'd encourage people with some free actions to experiment with fusing essences, and if you come across something useful to share the combination.
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Mirena watched the shifting beads, any optimism retreating as quickly as a vine in the wilds of the physical realm. She found herself frozen, though. Rooted to the ground from fear or stupidity, she didn't know. Spren around her scattered, fleeing from the mass beneath the sea, but she stared. It was a day she dreaded. A day she feared beyond all else. A day when they would need more than what was available in their realm. It was time. --- Just saying hello. I'll admit I haven't looked in depth at the rules yet, so I'll be looking into that before I post much else and/or decide on a vote.
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It has to be Snipexe.
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Oh. Hmm. That makes things a bit different. I'm still hesitant of the claim though, but the same hesitancy I had before. The trouble is it seems everyone here has some reason to be cleared. Steel probably the most of the three of you. CadCom's vote on Snipexe doesn't really make sense for him to be elim, unless it was just a really risky distancing vote. That leaves me, still, on Devotary. I'm probably tunneling at this point, but I haven't been given sufficient proof to not vote on you.
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Wait a second. I used acid on CadCom, so he couldn't have gone for the crab that turn. I can't believe I didn't realize this before. That would mean Devotary's claim of having used the lantern to scan the crab is false.
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I used a bucket of acid on CadCom in case he tried to bribe a vote away.
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I missed that the first time around, my apologies. However, I'm not sure how much I can put stock in that claim specifically. I can understand not revealing the full results of the scan right away, but by the time you said that in the thread, Kidpen had claimed to me that he'd scanned Joe with a crab. It's possible he made a similar claim about getting the crab to you. And unfortunately, without him around, I can't confirm one way or the other. At this point, I just have to go with my strongest suspicion.
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I've been thinking about the numbers, and I don't think the lack of elim kill was a coincidence. They may have expected a few people to use lanterns or crabs this turn, and maybe hoped only one person would go for the gun (or an odd number of people at least). If there are two deaths for the rest of the game, including last turn, it would end in a lynch-off. At this point, I keep going back and forth between Devotary and Snipexe for my top suspects, leaning toward the former. Devotary could have been doing a bus vote on Lumgol C1, with a 50% chance of Lum living, and a 50% chance of becoming more trusted. She didn't vote with C2 when CadCom was up for the lynch. She did claim to have scanned and confirmed he went for the crab, but that was the only confirmation. If she were elim, she could easily have claimed to use a lantern, when it was just revealed in the doc. As for Snipexe, CadCom's vote on him could have been distancing. If one or the other died and flipped elim, the other would likely seem more cleared. That seems a bit more of a stretch, though, especially since the delayed cycle end hadn't been announced and I still had my vote on Kidpen. For now, I'll be voting Devotary.
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Oh yeah! I should have realized that in the PM. That's what happens when I just glance at it.
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Yes, I did get the gun. I don't plan on using it, unless I know for sure I'm hitting the elim. We can't afford to lose extra villagers. My first guess with the elim kill is a roleblock. Did anyone use acid?
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I know this is a little late (I forgot I hadn't voted yet), but I'm still doubting Kidpen being elim with the bribe and kill both happening. No one has countered his claim to have done it himself. So, Gaea.
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There's also the question of the gun. It's going to be a risk for all sides to try to take it right now. We can't really afford any extra village deaths, since as far as I can calculate, we have up to 3 cycles left, depending on the number of elims left (I'm still pretty sure it was only 3 starting due to the size of the game). In order to hopefully minimize unnecessary deaths, I claim now that I will be trying to make a grab at it.
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While I'm not against a Kidpen lynch, if we're assuming he's an elim and an elim used a bribe, that also would mean more than one elim remaining since Joe was killed.
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It's nice to see some discussion . First off Joe. I can accept a dual-win with you. In that case, Kidpen
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I have information that leads me to believe Joe is the thief, beyond his claim. A player, who will remain unnamed at the moment, contacted me to say he used a crab to spy on Joe and found he did, in fact, steal Stink's gun. My analysis combined with this information, leads me to switch my vote off Devotary and onto Joe. I'm far more confident that Joe is thief than I am that Devotary is elim. Though I'd rather kill the elim, I'm not really willing to take the chance that we get it wrong and then lose to the thief. As a side note, I will only be here halfway for the remainder of the cycle, as I'm about to start a D&D campaign that will end right around the same time as the cycle.
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Alright. I had some time to do some real analysis again. Luckily, it didn't take long because activity has been meh. First, @A Joe in the Bush Generally, I actually have to agree with Steel here. It does seem his views seem to align pretty well with what a thief would be doing, though he's been subtle about it. In regards to his messages to his top suspicions. He did message me first, saying he was planning something like that. Steel is actually the second person to say they suspect Joe of being the thief. I think it's a plausible conclusion, and worth keeping in mind if we don't get an elim suspect. @Steeldancer Low on activity, but seems decently honest about his posts. Though, I would like confirmation from Xino that he did take the bribe. I lean toward trusting the claim, simply because the likelihood of them both being elims working together is extremely low. @Devotary of Spontaneity After reviewing her posts, she's actually my top suspect for elim at the moment. She seemed hesitant about speaking out too much about item claiming until some others had expressed opinions, and has some possible distancing with CadCom. Also, I can't fully clear her because of her vote. Elims could have agreed that giving someone a chance at being cleared for the vote would be just as useful as keeping a third elim around a little longer. @xxGaea I'm pretty neutral about Gaea. There's been a relative lack of activity to get any real reads, though I am slightly suspicious about her votes on Snipexe. The first one seemed a bit rash, and taking it off seemed a bit rushed. Granted, keeping it on likely would have saved CadCom. I'm slightly inclined to trust her. @Kidpen NAI. Nothing here to really give information. I would like to see a bit more activity and contribution, though. @xinoehp512 Again, activity is a bit of a hindrance. I'm inclined to suspect Xino, if it weren't for Steel's claim of him grabbing a bribe. However, we haven't considered the (admittedly unlikely) possibility of 4 elims. Solid neutral for now. @Snipexe I'm mostly inclined to trust Snipexe. He has had a lot of interactions with CadCom, but the counter-wagon attempt on him to save CadCom suggests it was all an attempt to set him up for a future mislynch. Based on what I've gathered, I'm going to place a vote on Devotary.
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I'll go ahead and sign up as well. I don't think I've played a Rosharan game yet. EDIT : How could I forget LG49. I'll be my second Roshar game. We need more.
