Elandera
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At best, we have 8 villagers left (13 - 2 MB - 3 Elims = 8). Hopefully a few of those have some survival abilities, so we won't get weeded out quite so quickly. Something I just realized about the suspicion on Rath. It was mostly based on Rath's vote on Bard, a Thug 1 killed by MB N1. However, since we know Maill is Vin, if we assumed Rath was MB as well, he'd be Zane. Except, Zane doesn't have a vote-scan. It's seeming more and more than Bard's death was just a fortunate accident, rather than a deliberate attack on a Thug 1. It's possible he was targeted to narrow down elim suspects more quickly, as pointed out by Randuir in this post: Unless... @A Joe in the Bush and @Young Bard, please use a mistwhisper tonight to answer this question (or relay it in the writeup), if you can. Bard, did you claim your role to anyone before you died? Stick and Maill have had very little interaction, beside the end of D2 when everyone was considering a swing to a different candidate. At that time, Maill suggested Rath as possible candidate, along with HH and Xino. While it could be distancing, that's a bit of a late attempt to appear to be willing to swing the vote toward Zane!Rath. Granted, he did switch the options from "Rath and HH" to "HH and Xino." So it's not outside the realm of possibilities. Both Rath and Stick were on after Lum voted Maill that turn as well, so that doesn't help narrow down Zane candidates. Another question for the dead doc. @Steeldancer, you mentioned in the following post that you believed Rath to be MB based on PMs. Could you say what was in those PMs that led you to that conclusion? Steel, you also voted on Stick in a final effort before you died, believing Stick then to be a MB. What are your thoughts now? Regarding the Lynching of Steel, Stick and Maill were both for it, while Rath was against. I could see a Maill/Rath team intentionally being on separate sides for distancing purposes. On the flip side, MB do want elims dead, so going all in on a lynch they could be fairly certain would get rid of one is reasonable. It also wouldn't draw a lot of attention because there was proof behind the reason the Steel lynch started. Here are my notes as I went through the cycles: TL;DR: I have no idea. Rath and Stick both seem to have an equally high chance of being Zane.
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Unfortunately, no Pilot ship does enough damage. Largos and MBot are the closest with 4 destructors, meaning 4 damage. Only one action also means they have to work in coordination with someone else for an IMP to be effective. Gunners, however, can 1-shot a Krell ship, as AA turrets do 10 damage. I'm not really a fan of the Stick lynch, because it's kind of baseless. DA would be the better target for a lynch based on reaction to not having one last cycle. He was the one really pushing for that. Also, DA, why not vote on Sart if you're so suspicious? I'm of half a mind to vote on you, but won't because you are just returning and lynching you now would be unfortunate. I'll need to give more thought before I vote. I'm just waking up still.
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Honestly, we should probably still be going after MB, though maybe not Maill. Zane is the real threat, considering they're the one with the coinshot kill. Vin!Maill can wait... probably. If we have no lead on Zane, I'd be willing to lynch Vin to at least cut Zane off from her abilities. I will attempt tonight to go through past cycles and see what I can come up with, but at the moment, I'm most suspicious of Stick being Zane. Through some PMs, I feel like her story of scanning might be more lie than truth. If there are any roleblock abilities out there, I'd appreciate you targeting Stick tonight. There's also the possibility Rath is still Zane, especially since he survived. From what I understand of the rules, that means they have to be a Thug 2, as there's no other ability that would allow him to survive a lynch. Zane has Thug 2, so that's plausible. However, Maill has voted on Rath several times. Again, I'll do some more analysis on patterns to see if I can find a link there, but Stick and Rath remain in my top suspicions for Zane.
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That makes me suspect Stick a little more strongly than Rath right now, considering how strongly Mailliw pushed to keep Stick from being lynched at the end.
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Bad Wolf had reigned in the sky. Nothing could stop her. She had danced through the debris field and Krell ships, even taking one out of the battle. Even then, a part of Brenna knew much of what happened was luck. Luck that had lead her to an already damaged ship. Luck that had allowed her - on her first flight as a full pilot - to shoot it down. Yaw(n) hadn't the same luck, for it wasn't skill that mattered when supposed allies were turning on their pilots. Their squad hadn't the same luck, for what could be done when some pilots never even answered the call? But Bad Wolf lived. And Bad Wolf would return. "I am the Bad Wolf." --- CadCom, StrikerEZ and Walin can be cleared of at least being an elim to submit the kill order, though they can't be cleared entirely. At first glance, the choice to kill Devotary doesn't seem to give any obvious hints. I'll have to go back and review what's happened, though. It could be they chose her because she's a pretty good strategist for a game like this. More thoughts to follow when I have a bit more time to actually review things. I'm at work, so time is limited.
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Yes, yes it is. Poor Fifth.
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If Devotary is basically admitting to being elim, then that narrows things down to not her being MB. I want to lynch an MB this turn, or we likely lose to them
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Devotary, this is a bold move. But I'll go with it. I'm mostly just equally suspicious of all of you. devotary rath
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I've changed my vote so much this turn. It's ridiculous. But I'm going to go with my gut on this one. Rath Devotary
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Yes, I believe either Rath or Stick, or even you, could be MB. I'm at the point I would rather lynch an MB than an elim. Especially if we can get Zane. When I voted Bard, I thought he might be either elim or MB, for at that cycle, I didn't much care which we would hit. EDIT: I'm really concerned because right now, we have a really tight lynch, with Rath in the lead with only 3. We really need to get some more people on and voting.
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I would be okay with switching back to Devotary, as my gut still tells me something is wrong. It just didn't seem that lynch was gaining any steam, and the votes are too spread out and small. If we can get a few people to agree, I'll switch back. Lynching Rath finally might give us more answers about former cycle's votes.
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I am suggesting that Stick might be Mistborn, based on Steel's vote. I definitely don't think Stick is elim at this point. I'd rather lynch a possible MB over a possible Mistborn. As for the Rath/Bard thing, you're right. I was skimming some older turns and completely misread this post: For some reason, my brain translated the middle bits to "Elims killed Bard." Since my argument is based on flawed understanding, the Rath lunch now makes a lot more sense. Stick Rath
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We should probably start solidifying the lynch, considering we've got 6-7 hours left. The top candidates of discussion seem to be Rath and Stick. I'll remove my vote from Devotary, since I haven't much to go on other than her being a possible MB based on roleclaims and that she's remained mostly out of suspicion. I'll need to do some more analysis before I'd be willing to risk a hammer for my stubbornness. Rath has been a lynch candidate for a while, and been able to avoid it. However, most of the reasoning to lynch Rath started because he was a possible elim Tineye, which resulted in Bard's death. The turn we lynched Steel, Steel seemed determined on a Rath lynch to start the cycle, and only removed it when it appeared Steel was the top candidate. After that, Steel started to point all of the fingers at Stick. That suggests to me that Rath was going to be a convenient mislynch, otherwise he might have kept his vote on Rath for distancing purposes. With the the information we've gained about Stick this turn from Fura, someone I trust relatively well, I'd be willing to venture Stick might be a possible elim.\ Stick Vote Count: Rath (2) - Maill, HH HH (1) - Ark Stick (2) - Fura, Elandera Ninja'd by @Lumgol, I'd still say Y, but that might change.
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Correct. Essentially, a Gunner can 1-shot the Krell ships. I asked Steel, and only one Gunner can target a Pilot each night. The others should be targeting Krell. They lose turret damage if the base is hit, so it's in their best interest to keep the Krell at Bay as well.
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I say go with Devotary's plan. Pick a target based on your ship, and hopefully we'll hit everything.
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I forgot about Lifebusters. You're right. IMP missiles would be good to be saved for more threatening situations, as it allows the pilot's shields to remain in place. A simple Krell attack could be handled without them. That also depends on how many IMPs the Largos are assigned. I'm assuming it might be different for each one. I'm down for the plan you've suggested. This is the kind of thing I don't do well with... strategizing.
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Hmm. Devotary and Fura make good points. However, there still is the matter that a Seeker scan would only show the metal. @_Stick_, did you reach out to any tineyes (such as Lum) to see if you could confirm the scan? I feel that might have been the course a villager would take, especially since Lum has been considered village by most for a while.
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As I said earlier, we should probably find Zane now as it will take two attempts to kill him. Hopefully, if we can get elim cooperation, if we find Zane, they'll finish him that night. Also, I see a hole in knowing Senn with a Seeker 1 scan. As far as I understand things, it only shows which metal a person burned. It's possible Stick just scanned a Lurcher 1 or 2.
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Ah, what I meant by speculative was the smoking situation alone, since I don't really know the rest of it. Aside from knowing Zane has Smoker 2, we don't know who else might have it. We also can only speculate as to why he'd smoke Stick. It could be because they're a MB, or it could be an attempt to frame them. We just don't know. But I will wait for your further thoughts before I make a solid decision. Just for now, my vote stays on Devotary.
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This is a good point. The evidence against Stick is solely speculative role analysis. I will be leaving my vote on Devotary for now.
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Smoker 2, then, which elims haven't lost. If Stick were MB, finding Senn would have likely lead to an attempt to lynch him sooner, considering he's Lurcher. So either she's lying about finding Senn, or she's not MB. I doubt elims have a Smoker 2, so I'd lean toward Stick being village for now. Definitely not among my top suspicions for Zane at the moment.
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Smoker 1 or Smoker 2? Smoker 2 might still have a village role remaining, though the chances are slim. Elims also haven't lost a Smoker 2, though I don't think they'd have one in the first place. Either way, that does seem a bit suspicious.
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Brenna Rose was built to fly, to reach for the stars. She put on the pressure suit, hands shaking slightly from adrenaline. This was it. It was her turn. Her first flight as a full pilot. She took a deep breath, calming her nerves. She needed a clear head for the fight. Ground crew helped me up the ladder and into my assigned ship. I quickly ran over the controls before engaging the acclivity ring and heading into the sky. "Skull Three, reporting. Callsign: Bad Wolf," she called to her flight, excitement clear in her voice. She belonged in the stars, and she'd do anything to get there. Up here, in this place she was Bad Wolf. "Are you afraid of the big bad wolf?"
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Just a quick bit of analysis. Since unused attacks will be reassigned to the next available target, one option may to all be target 1A, then let RNG trickle down. It may not be the best option, but it's there. In reality, we should probably be going on PM networks to get certain ships working together. It would probably be most effective if we can get some IMPs working in coordination with damage. If the Largo ships can coordinate IMP usage with 3 Pocos, we can take down a good portion of the Krell fleet. I'll start sending some PMs.
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Sorry if that was unclear. My saying it would likely be the case tomorrow was indicating we're just as likely to hit a villager D2 as D1, from my experience. One struggle I am having with this lynch is the lack of participation D1. There's very little from anyone to inform any kind of decision. It's a lot of why I'm just going to leave things as they are. Though I'd prefer a lynch, no one else is chiming in, and there's been enough people saying no that I'll oblige. Hopefully the night turn will change that, though I don't really see how actions will be any information in that regards. As far as I've read (though I'm horrible about only skimming rules), there aren't really any role/action scans. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Also regarding write-ups, I rarely put stock in those, as I consider them to usually just be for style rather than realistic results of the game. D1 would have been nice to discuss strategies, but as I said earlier, there hasn't been anything until the last 20 minutes. We should have started this a while ago.
