Elandera
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I figured out why I'm struggling so much this game. Ninety percent of the discussion happens while I'm sleeping, and I might have an hour to catch up on pages of discussion if I'm lucky. The vote on Zillah doesn't make much sense to me, but I also don't have any hard suspicions at the moment (someone with abilities or money, please, I'm begging you, kill Bard). I'd rather not spread out the voting pool just because I feel like being contradictory.
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Congrats Walin! If anyone has protection, it wouldn't hurt to use it to keep him alive. At least until we determine he is not village. Skindancers will likely make Masters a main target. Time for another chunk of analysis. At least I made it past the first term. Now on to Term Two! But first! @TheMightyLopen Did I miss something? Where did we learn Bard was caught lying twice? I thought Xino only revealed he lied term 2.2? @Experience That makes sense. There hadn't been a ton of discussion about it, which is why I didn't put anything down about considering it obvious elim. It was just a little odd, but not unreasonable. And yes, that explanation does make a lot more sense. @Burnt Spaghetti I would love to, but I'm having a difficult enough time to get through analysis. I may if I live long enough and get up to the current month. Alright, really on to term 2. @xinoehp512 Yes, I recognize I may be tunneling on Xino. I really need Bard to die before I can let go of my paranoid suspicion. @Burnt Spaghetti And that's it for now. There was a lot of debate at the end of the turn about focused voting or not. It's still my opinion a lot of that was NAI, as both sides would have reasons to be on either side of the argument, as would arguing against a late-cycle change in how to regard the voting pattern. It's not really a matter of competitive field, and more a matter of my idiocy. I misunderstood Imre rules and ended up taking an unintentional sabbatical for a turn. I also wasn't in the Gray Man, so I was left with basically no options last turn, as I wasn't attending the University either.
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Staying at the Grey Man won't be much of a problem for most students. Only Vintish noblemen and Edema Ruh might struggle. Granted, most wouldn't be much of a threat, either. Aturan nobles would be the biggest problem. That said, I do think we should try for expulsion if enough people are suspicious. The roleblock is a good fallback in the case of unfavorable RNG or if we are suspicious of a few people.
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Thanks for the reminder! I have been focused on catching up in the other game. I fear I've bitten off more than I can chew. I skimmed what happened after I went to sleep last cycle. Rollover is at a very unfortunate time for me. I likely won't be on the last several hours at all, unless it's one of my days off and I went to sleep early the night before. The Rae lynch was surprising, but good. BR's vote was late enough in the turn, it wasn't likely a distancing vote gone awry. I'm actually inclined to clear all three who voted on her, as there wasn't much suspicion connected with the vote reasons and there were other targets that could have been lynched instead with as much reason. As someone who has bussed teammates before, it usually only happens D1 if there is condemning evidence that can't be ignored. The time I did it was because a teammate did something that village!me would have considered suspicious enough for a vote even not on D1 where bars are set much lower. I just didn't see that in any of Rae's posts or the vote posts. Current vote count: Mist (2) - Fura, Kidpen Fura (1) - Archivist Striker (1) - Karnage Drake (1) - Sart TGK (1) - BR Kynedath (1) - Drake I... don't really like the lynch on Mist. It's meta in reasoning, but I don't see the evidence as enough to lynch a brand new player on C2. Their vote on Fura was understandable in prodding for a real vote, and they removed it as promised. Even Fura said it was likely a village move. The subsequent vote on Kidpen was less great, but not definitely elim. Both Striker's and Mist's votes were placed on Fura after the second vote on Rae. It's possible they are both elim, and voted in an attempt to save Rae. If both are elim, I'd rather lynch Striker (sorry, I know this happens to you a lot.) Striker.
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Thinking again about the series of events, I'm somewhat concerned that Bard was honestly attacked and survived, then set up to get expelled to keep him from elevating beyond El'the. Paranoid, yes, but we really need to kill Bard to get some insight into his real alignment and possible hints to others alignment. That said, I still don't trust Xino, but in reading through things, I realize he's been on the horns a few times already. I'll refrain from a vote there until we get answers about Bard's alignment. Now, to continue my analysis. I'm returning to D1 again (and going beyond that), since my previous read on it was scattered because of work. It's not as crazy today, so things should be more coherent. I still only skimmed RP to make sure it wasn't game-relevant just because I'll get nowhere with analysis if I only look at one turn per turn and I just don't have that kind of time. @Furamirionind @Straw @TheMightyLopen @Experience @xinoehp512 On term 1.2, Straw brought up a point that could be in favor of Xino, against Bard. If Bard flips elim, we should probably start trying to find the Physicker skindancer, as that's the likely source for his survival of the insanity. @Burnt Spaghetti I'm also realizing I greatly misunderstood the Imre rules, and despite it having been pointed out to me D1, I did not know you had to stay in a particular place in order to make constant actions in Imre. That changes a lot of my earlier stances about the danger of throwing all nobles out of the school. That's it for now. I reached the end of Term 1, and I fear losing this post to a computer that's been glitching. To sum up, I'm somewhat suspicious of everyone I tagged in varying degrees. I have a fair bit of trust for Devotary, Elkanah, and Hael.
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Part of it is the unlimited resources of being in Imre. While they can't take University actions, they can find plenty of ways to spend their time and money. Nobles have an excess of money that could lead to getting bodyguards, assassins, and items at the apothecary. If that happened too early, it could help them control a lot of the game. I believe someone else mentioned a past game where expelled skindancers still wreaked havoc from Imre. The timing was rather unfortunate. I had started my analysis and found several odd things about Xino before he ever posted. I was at work, though, so I kept getting interrupted. Xino posted before I finished, so I felt I needed to respond to his claims. I did not have the time or ability to return to analysis, and Bard had few posts D1 and none which stood out to me as suspicious. I voted on both because I couldn't ignore my suspicions of Xino, but I also couldn't ignore the claim of a potential lie that could mean Skindancer. I still don't trust Xino, and probably won't until we see Bard's alignment. Speaking of which, can someone please kill Bard?
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Hey, hi, hello. I'm here. I still need to do a re-read of the rules. When turns last 24 hours, it's never too early for a poke vote. The trouble is getting too late in the turn for a poke vote. I fully agree we should not kill some of the returning players in the first turns. Resist the temptation to be afraid of reputations. Please. And TGK is right. He and those who joined at the same time are no longer new. While I'm normally down for a D1 lynch, my brain isn't cooperative today and I'm not really comprehending much of what's been said so far. I think I'm going to pass up on a vote for now, though that might change if I can wake up a bit more through the night.
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@Lord_Silberfarben, I can echo this sentiment. I'm wrong more often than not with analysis but my gut tends to have a better judgement. If all you have is a gut read, sometimes you just have to say that. Most of us understand and will be forgiving (even if we ask for a bit more, if possible). And I am leaning more village on my read of you for the same as Tess said.
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Well, I started to do analysis before Xino posted about Bard's apparent lie. My focus was on Lopen (since he's been a focus of suspicion for several people), and whatever else stood out. I was only able to get through turn 1.1, since I'm at work and keep getting distracted. I just wanted to get this posted since in my read through I caught several things that seemed odd about Xino. First, @TheMightyLopen: For now, neutral. That might change once I get further into the cycles. (Sorry for not linking Lopen's posts. Since I didn't find anything suspicious, I didn't feel it was necessary.) Now onto @xinoehp512 There was a lot of D1 effort to pull information out of people that could be used by Skindancers to remove the biggest early threats. It was all phrased in a way that, at first, passed without much notice. His information about Bard is very interesting, though. If it did come from a third-party, we can't clear Xino for it. I don't think that third party should step forward, though. They are too important. I think I'll vote Xino and Bard. I'll try to keep going through the cycles tonight and get a few more reads down.
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I don't agree with the votes on Lopen either, so my vote is simply for spreading the field for DP. I'm also going to stick with nobles. Coda Karnage
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"Three Cs of sympathy... three Cs of sympathy...." Athdara sat in a secluded nook of the tombs and muttered that one line to herself over and over again, unable to actually remember what they were. "Three Cs of sympathy are.... conservation, cogna--" She threw down her pencil in frustration after what felt like hours of running up against a brick wall in her mind. Why can't I remember the three Cs? Athdara threw down her pencil, frustrated with her lack of progress in Sympathy. Two terms and I can't remember something so simple! If she couldn't show some competence, she'd never get elevated. She may even get expelled! What if her tuition was raised to high because she was too inept? With her luck, that would be the Master Sympathist's question during her admissions interviews. Giving up trying to remember, she pulled one of the books closer, careful to avoid bending any pages. The last the she needed was to anger the Master Archivist, too. "The basic laws of sympathy," she read aloud, "are the Doctrine of Correspondence, the Principle of Consanguinity, and the Law of Conservation." She took up a new mantra, trying to embed those words in her mind. "Correspondence, Consanguinity, Conservation. Correspondence, Consanguinity, Conservation. Correspondence, Consanguinity, Conservation." Athdara shut the book and set it aside again, returning to her notes. "Correspondence... the more similar something is, the stronger the sympathetic link. Consanguinity... root of the word means descended from the same ancestor, so... the descendant. No. The... a descendant is a part of the ancestor. Piece! A piece of something represents the whole. And Conservation, energy just is. It can't be created or destroyed, or lost or found." She signed in relief, sitting back in her chair. Now, if only she could retain all of that knowledge. --- As for my game thoughts, I think if anyone is able, they should probably start taking out hits on people. We need to learn some alignments if we are going to be able to connect the dots between players. If it's done through contract, it may also help some of the Ruh afford to keep going to the university. We need some people there to gain abilities that will draw out the Skindancers a little better. I haven't been able to really read through the thread much to get reads, so I'll have to pass on doing any player analysis at the moment beyond basic gut reads. Karnage and Lord Sil both feel like honest villagers at the moment. And I don't have any elim reads. Everyone else is pretty neutral. So long as I stay out of the crockery, I'll try to take some time tomorrow to really read things and do some breakdowns. Again, I'm sorry I haven't been super involved so far.
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That was not my intention. I have a lot of other stuff going on atm in life (trying to build a website that's giving me a ton of trouble, D&D campaigns, and work). I've been skimming, but don't have a ton of time for much more in-depth analysis or even RP. I'm DMing a campaign right now, but I'll jump on afterwards to share more of my thoughts.
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Green is the color of National Mental Health Awareness month. It does appear the elims are choosing the low-information players for insanity. I don't have much time (still trying to build a website...) but I'll try to be more involved than last turn.
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Trusting them just because they want to expell isn't completely logical as it doesn't necessarily do village more good than elims. Skindancers could want to expell as many people as possible to increase their chances of being elevated and achieving their secondary win-con.
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I echo pretty much what Burnt said, speaking as an American with a sleeping schedule that aligns better with Australians than my own time zone. I just wanted to add something about this question specifically. It tends to lean closer to elims not RPing with fellow elims so if one gets caught they don't have an obvious link. This is especially the case if the RP seems really coordinated (looking at you @Kynedath and @Zillah... ). Of course, this is definitely not always the case. Some older players tend to gravitate towards each other for RP simply because they know styles. I (usually) just do solo RP. Anytime I've tried with someone else, it never lasts more than a few posts. Don't let that keep you from RPing or trying to find someone to RP with you.
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I'll sign up as Thankful.
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Athdara couldn't believe it. She was nearly done with her first term at the University. She felt like she could not learn anything else ever after so many classes on entirely new topics, but at the same time she felt as if she still knew absolutely nothing. The professor at the front of the class was droning on again about the importance of logical arguments. It held little to no interest for her, since there was little arguing to be had in Alchemy. She had been nervous to start studying Alchemy at first, worried she'd be terrible or it wouldn't live up to her expectations. Instead, it exceeded them. The precise measurements, the hint of magical principles. Athdara felt like she took to it naturally. At least, as naturally as anyone could with something as complex as Alchemy. "... it's the base of communication - the most vital component." Her teacher's words snapped her back into the classroom, but only because the words were more often heard in her other, more important classes. Classes she wouldn't be able to continue if she failed too many of the other courses. Adjusting her papers and sitting up straight in her chair, Athy centered her focus once again on the present.
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I have no idea what to make of HH being sabotaged. It makes me wonder if the elims chose a target at random. Current Votes: Devotary (Noble) (1) - DeTess Lopen (Noble) (1) - Coda Elandera (Noble) (1) - Straw Green Rover (Noble) (1) - Xino Walin (Commoner) (1) - Sart Lord Sib (Commoner) (1) - Araris Karnage (Noble) (1) - Elandera Don't forget to get your votes in. I suggest we don't vote on Coda, despite his status as a Noble. It would be rather unfortunate if he were brought on the Horns again. That leaves Araris and Lumgol as the only nobles without a vote so far, plus the many commoners. I do think it is important to spread out the votes as much as possible, especially after Coda reached the second level last turn. That RNG is not helpful. They may pursue it simply to attempt to gain Master and control who is elevated. They could also destroy it, but that would automatically reveal the elim, so it would have to be a desperate effort. They also may try for it to keep other people from elevating in that field before anyone can reach master, since elevations are limited. The same idea goes for pretty much all of the fields. There is potential for 5-6 elims in a game this size. One or two are probably focusing on fields that will most help them with their goal, while the others would likely focus on fields in an effort to sabotage (not Sabotage) the students efforts to progress.
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"Oh, she definitely told me to be careful at night." Athdara turned toward Lasko again. This was exciting. It was the first day of term and she was already making new friends. "But there's this place I want to visit. They're supposed to host some of the best musicians alive there. I do love music. Besides, I bet it's nice to get away from all the school stresses once in a while. I know I would need some time off. Maybe we could all go together sometime. So, what do you want to study here? You seem pretty organized. I bet something like rhetoric or linguistics."
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Athdara was pleasantly surprised by how much Bryn talked - it was similar to how her sister talked when she was excited or nervous. "My mom studied alchemy when she studied here, and her work always fascinated me. She didn't teach me much, though. Said I was too young. But now's my chance. And if that doesn't work out, I'll probably try something in arithmatics or maybe in physicking. At least when we start, they give us plenty of variety. Oh, have you been to Imre yet? I've heard so much about it from my mom."
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"Nice to meet you both!" Athdara looked at each in turn, repeating their names in her head to help memorize who they were, starting with Lasko. "Definitely cold outside. I'm not quite used to this kind of winter. Where I'm from, it's mostly just mildly colder, but no snow. Snow is so pretty, isn't it? At least when it's not blizzarding." Turning to Bryn, she said, "I found this class easily enough. I guess I just got lucky, since I didn't really find any directions anywhere. Do you think you'll start studying naming eventually? It sounds fascinating, but I think I'll stick to less dangerous pursuits. Like alchemy."
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Ah. I am so good at reading things, apparently. I can agree with two votes on nobles and one vote on commoners. A lot of my reason for pointing it out early was to make sure we didn't get too late in the cycle before deciding votes should also be placed on some commoners, and end up with too many on nobles. I'm comfortable leaving my vote on you with the current number of votes. I agree with Devotary's assessment that we don't need to make sure all nobles have two votes before voting on commoners. Yes, you can change your vote. Just use the same color code to type the name of your old vote in green (which, by the way, you should probably make your normal text not close to green), then place your new vote in red again.
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Sorry, I misunderstood your other post. I thought you were agreeing with Straw that we should only vote on nobles.
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Discipline Points don't just come from votes. Each person with a single complaint has the potential to get any number of the 45 DP distributed every turn. Yes, financially, nobles can handle the complaints better. But a complaint is +1 jot, while a post is -5 jots. That's not even counting PMs, RP, and analysis. Almost everyone can handle a single vote, so long as they post. If everyone votes on a noble, that's 3 votes a piece. That means every noble gets one DP from votes, plus whatever is randomly distributed by the NPC Masters.
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But then I'd be directly contradicting every reason I listed for voting on a commoner. All votes on nobles means anywhere between 1 and 9 people automatically being brought on the Horns right away. If it's between 1 and 4, each has a chance of being expelled. That means if we only vote on only nobles, worst case scenario is four people are expelled. Do you really want four nobles with their income only able to work in Imre from the start? Can you imagine the kind of power they'd accrue when they don't have to split attention between the University studies and Imre?
