Elenion
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Everything posted by Elenion
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Arguments for Len's innocence: 1. Most of the votes on me are either from players who are always suspicious of me (Mage and Jon will both attest that they always find themselves reading negatively on me), or players who were confused by the error that I made with thinking that surviving the lynch would clear me. 2. I missed voting the first few cycles; elim!Len almost always votes every cycle to either lynch a villager or gain credibility by defending a villager. 3. I knew in advance that my opinion on Orlok would be unpopular, but I pursued it anyway because I think it's accurate. Look at LG34, where I suspected Meta, was nearly lynched for it, but was right and ended up turning the game around along with Flash and Manukos. Or LG35, where I suspected Stick--the most widely-trusted player at the time--was lynched for it, and was proved right in the end. I make a habit out of finding elims among trusted villagers, but the byproduct of that is that I take a lot of flak for my opinions. If I was an elim, I wouldn't post an unpopular opinion, because they always get votes on me. But as a villager, I posted an unpopular opinion because I would honestly bet my in-game life right now that I'm right. Lynch Orlok and check; if he's village, lynch me. That is, of course, assuming that I'm not the Truthless planting a fuse that would get everyone offed, but you'll just have to take that risk.
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It looks like I'm firmly buried under a mountain of votes; and with many of the voters no longer online I'm not sure if it's even possible to convince everyone to shift their votes off of me.
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I'm definitely not the Truthless, because Truthless!Len would have acted earlier while suspicions were less concrete. Its easier to pull a lynch onto you D1 or D2 when lynches are usually gut-based.
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Actually NVM, for some reason I was thinking that you could get my alignment from the lynch results; but there could be Elsecaller Skybreaker double-Radiants, so that wouldn't work. If you could get my alignment confirmed by the mislynch, that would make my suspicions carry more weight, but because the mislynch won't clear me that plan wouldn't work.
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I'm not saying you shouldn't lynch me, I'm just saying that if you do I won't die. I'm not really helping the village much: I have no active PMs and my reads aren't very good apparently, so I might actually be the best lynch today.
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You can lynch me today if you want; I'm packing a spare life (yes, I am going to role-claim despite my plan not to). It'll waste the lynch, sure, but it won't take a player out of the game.
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Just checking to make sure that you were quoting Ecth from the thread and not elsewhere because I didn't remember Ecth saying that. But he did, so no issues there. @Jondesu You admit that your wariness of me is based mostly on my rep and playstyle, so why are you voting on me? Are there any reasons why you're voting on me that are alignment-indicative for me? Also, from my reads post I noted Jon, Sart, Orlok, and Elith as acting suspiciously. I'm going to support Lopen's vote on Orlok because every elim team needs an experienced player, and Orlok fits the bill, hasn't been targeted yet, and hasn't been openly suspected until now.
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Here's a few things that need to be tweaked that I don't think have been brought up yet: 1. We need to see Darro get wasted a few times. You hear a lot about how he goes carousing a lot and ends up with different women, but until you hear about the Alean 'incident' and find Darro dead drunk out of despair I don't think the reader understands how senseless he is when he's out drinking. Darro needs to stumble into the castle completely wasted a couple of times so that you know that when he's out drinking, he doesn't have much control over himself. It also gives Raeth a chance to bond with him more. 2. Disposing of Alean: what happened to her was definitely not ethical, but after all of the sleeping with people that she did I can't say that I didn't find it satisfying. I don't think uncovering an affair of hers would end it well, though, because that makes the plot feel forced: the people didn't uncover the affair until exactly when that info is needed. What needs to happen here is that Darro gets her drunk, has his friends haul her into an unoccupied bed in one of Darro's friends' houses, and then calls the royal guard. The royal guards discover Alean dead drunk in someone's house, make a few assumptions, and get her sent away in shame because a bride fit for the emperor should not be sleeping with other men. Alean, of course, denies the claims, but nobody believes them nor Alean's allegations about Raeth's identity. 3. Tae, the Ferrous bride, needs some more page time. She's a viable candidate for marriage because she's from an influential house; and Raeth is likely to find her a better candidate than the Verdant or Mahallen brides because the latter two are trying to catch him with their feminine wiles. Tae is the most conservatively-dressed of all the brides so she's not trying to seduce Raeth, would win Raeth support from Ferrous--usually a Verdant ally IIRC, and would help Raeth avoid any political missteps because of her practicality. As the book stands, Raeth can't see any other options than D'Naa because he has zero chemistry with any of the other brides, and so it's obvious from the get-go that he's going to have to choose D'Naa. Adding more of Tae would force Raeth to weigh his personal feelings for D'Naa against his political knowledge, which tells him that Tae is the perfect compromise choice. 4. Whatever happened to the Bestarin bride? We should at least hear her mentioned periodically, and when Raeth says he's narrowed his choices to Verdant, Mahallen, or Ferrous it should hurt him hard politically with the Bestarin, making the choice even worse than 5. Mixed signals about the Vo-Dari. He points out quite a bit that he would never have made a good Dari, but then the Patriarch tells "Hern" that Raeth could have become Vo-Dari. Either the Patriarch was playing a political game and trying to suck up to "Hern", or the Vo-Dari aren't as exclusive of an order as the rest of the book and particularly Raeth's time in the Irae makes them out to be.
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This got me thinking... Aether of Night spoilers:
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Aether:
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Kaladin v Arclo: Methinks I've heard of a fight like this before... Vasher v Raoden: The thing with AonDor is that drawing Aons takes time. Once Raoden begins the first Aon, Vasher is going to close the distance between them very quickly. Awakened clothing is ready to defend against oncoming attacks, but it's barely necessary because Vasher finishes Raoden before the latter can get his third Aon off. Marsh v Jasnah: Marsh's powers should be able to take Jasnah out from range while making him resistant to Soulcasting. Even if they engage in close-quarters combat, Marsh just has too many options. Vin v Denth: Coin-slinging and flight versus a guy who's really good with a sword and making his clothing fight. This is going to be pretty one-sided. Kelsier v Elend: Elend may have greater raw power, but Kelsier has much more experience fighting others with Allomantic powers, more combat smarts, and the willingness to fight dirty.
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Ecth and I play, but I'm working the night of the 12th.
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Can you link to where Ecth said that? I can't find it, and I'm testing a theory of mine.
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Looks like Lopen tried to lynch me with Jon's help, but then ended up lynching Jon with me. Heh, irony.D So if I'm reading the vote manip right, Lopen's vote got moved from me to Jon, and Eternum's vote got moved from Arin to Sart. Of the two moves, I'd bet that one was elim and one was village, because we haven't killed an elim vote manip yet but it's unlikely the elims have two. Edit: Sart brings up a good point in that even one vote move would be a very powerful role for the elims. If this is true, both moves last cycle are likely village.
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@Orlok Tsubodai I explained my reasons for voting him (well, attempting to) last cycle: he accused Arinian for going after Stick too strongly, but at the time Stick's alignment was unknown, so unless Sart was elim he couldn't have known that Arin was on the wrong trail. Also, right now I'm getting village tonereads from Rae, Winter, Eternum, DA, and Arinian. That's right, Arinian. He sounds different than his last game as village and very much like his village self. Like Lopen I'm feeling a bad gut reaction to Jon's latest post: it seems indecisive, and made right at a time where there is no prevailing suspicions that everyone supports, so it feels like it's trying to sound helpful without stepping on anyone's fingers. Here's a full reads list: (100 is village, 0 is elim) Elith: taken lots of flak for a few posts, but I haven't played enough with him to tell if that's AI. 48/100 Mage: Always difficult to read for me, and nothing he's said has really triggered a read. 50/50 Eternum: Village toneread. 55/100 Jebus: Few posts, no read. 50/100 Orlok: If Winter, Rae, Lopen and I are all village like my reads say, the elims need a tactician, and Orlok fits the bill. No solid evidence yet, but paranoia is getting real. I wouldn't lynch him but I'll be watching. 49/100 Winter: Village toneread. 60/100 Roadwalker: Neutral read. 50/100 Jon: Has made 2 posts that have read evil on my radar. 40/100 Sami: I'm not reading evil on that one post like Lopen is, so she's still at 50/100 STINK: Chance is against him being evil since he was just barely evil in LG36. Call me for the gambler's fallacy, but GMs are not completely random with balance. 53/100 Rae: Village toneread. 55/100 Lopen: Village toneread, plus extremely low chance of WGG. 65/100 and somebody pls protect him. Darkness: I know from Wolfia he can be hard to read, but I'm with Lopen in that he's seeming village. 55/100 Bard: I can't remember any of his posts... 50/100 Ecth: We've beaten the dead horse already. His comment about nearly dying read as village, but not too village, so 53/100 Yitzi: Really, the same analysis as I did to STINK. 51/100 Sart: Where my vote is. He's not lurking as is his elim tell, but he knows it's his tell so it's an IKYK. 43/100 for the Arin accusation. Arinian: Village toneread. 55/100 Sub-50 reads: Elith, Jon, Sart, Orlok (but just barely for him). In typing this out I've realized that I now distrust Jon more than Sart, because Sart could have been making a gut read on Stick and just have read her right. So I'll be switching my vote from Sart to Jon hoping that this swap doesn't end up biting me in the backside later.
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It's just an observation, but if you want to take it as a compliment go ahead. I will compliment you on your activity level, though. And it looks like I haven't yet put my vote on Sart. I'll do that.
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@TheMightyLopenAlso, C4 you'll have players who need to be eliminated based on role or analysis, while C1 is really only good for casting minor suspicion or fear kills. There are usually no hard-cleared or widely trusted villagers and few role-claims C1. Also, Eternum is sounding a lot like me when I started SE but with more sass. I'm reading slightly village on him.
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@Eternum I'm suspecting a posting problem (see my edit), and even if there was a Dustbringer involved it could have been Sart removing the vote from himself. Also, we've seen cycle 1 WGGs before. It's logic like yours that makes them such a powerful weapon. But I do agree with you that a WGG probably wouldn't be wise right now, where Lopen hadn't accrued any suspicion.
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Huh, somebody cancelled my vote off of Sart. Edit: I can't find my post! I wrote a post right at the beginning of last cycle, pointing out that Sart's accusation of Arin assumed that Sart knew Stick's alignment beforehand. This was before Sart had accrued any votes. This post is now gone and I don't know what happened to it. Maybe it never posted.
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It's found on any essence mark that grants Cunning. Stink was slated to get Cunning early, IIRC, but he didn't start with it.
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Just read the thread of last Hour to current. @Orlok Tsubodai In LG36 I think I remember one of the elims making a slip because they didn't have access to a village role PM to see what they looked like. Or maybe it was just something mentioned between Ecth and I. Anyway, that's what I was feeling might have happened in Ecth's case, but now the LG25 connections have me reconsidering that read.
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Well, work went long, but I don't think I would have made it back in time for turnover anyway; it's right as I get off my closing shift at work. Had I gotten back in time things might have turned out differently for the lynch. It appears to me, assuming no GM error, there is quite a bit of vote manip in the game. That translates to the elims likely having control over some of it, and the elims of all players would want to mess with the votes surrounding the central bandwagons. I think they were the ones who shifted the votes to Flash instead of Ecth. That said, I think it's a framing tactic. Remember LG25: the eliminators purposely redirected lynches from one villager to another to kill the second villager and cast suspicion on the first. This doesn't make me flip my read on Ecth to good, but it does move it back into neutral territory.
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I'm not really into hip hop: I run the gamut from 80's throwback to EDM. But I can catch a hip hop reference or two.
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You should have seen MR15: Elenion, Ecthelion, Elbereth, Eramit, Master Elodin, Emilylime, and Eolhondras were all playing; over a third of the players' names started with E. And then people started shortening my name to El, but that was Elbereth's nickname, so that made it even worse. We finally got it all figured out: I'm Len, Ecthelion is Ecth, and Elbereth is El. @Eternum What should we call you? Your full name? Et? Eter? As I said before, I'm leading slightly elimmy about Ecth because of the way he phrased his alignment. But since the bandwagon is already in full swing, I'm going to hold off my vote to ensure that if he's Truthless, I don't get attacked. Seeing as I've still got my vote... Jondesu. I'll move my vote to Ecth if the voting gets close. Jon said something back on page 2: Stick already mentioned this: the elims already know everyone's alignments. (Well, except the Truthless.) This post sounds to me like it's meant to prevent Rae's idea from accumulating too many village reads.
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Honestly I'd prefer this to Oversleep's proposition.
