Elenion

Lucky guess to try to get info out of you. Elith was the first to claim neutral, so I was confident he was neutral, but had no idea what he was.

No trade, it just showed up. Maybe because I had nothing to trade for. Also, is Elith the BMD? I'm fairly sure but not positive.

Someone took pity on me and passed me a mobile phone. I'll give you a ring tonight, assuming we both survive.

Didn't the Deepness kill by starvation? But anyway, crushed by Thunderclast. I'll take an instant death to a drawn-out one any day. Would you rather be assassinated by Szeth or become a Truthless just like him?

I don't exactly know what the Epic Cabal's win condition is, but the enemy of your enemy is your friend. Let me hold off on that for a minute while I ask a couple more questions. What is the nature of your PM with Ripple?

100%. Have it right in front of me. Who is the last Reckoner?

I do not know the Cabal's win condition, but because they have a faction kill it's no stretch to assume they're supposed to wipe out the Reckoners. Clarifying edit: My win con is to remove all threats to Balelight's control of the city. If the Malcontents are indeed a group, then that would account for the third kill at night. But if they have one, why haven't they offed me yet? I don't have a kill, so if Road was working alone as the opposite to me (because apparently I have no allies) than I don't think he had a kill.

Cole himself said, on page 16, that he was in a neutral faction group. That doesn't leave many options. I have info that the Malcontent win condition requires the death of at least one player. I was running on the assumption that it was the Cabal, and he/they were opposite to my win con in that regard.

I don't know who they are other than if there are more of them it's likely Cole and maybe Ripple, but I know a bit about their win con. Who do you think the surviving Malcontents are, and why do you think that?

I was not gifted last cycle. I was affected by a different action that also likely came from a Epic, hence my suspicions of a second living Epic. You make a good point about claiming, and I'll admit that my Reckoner read on you is slipping. Shall we share info? Edit: I'm especially interested in hearing about the Malcontents.

Are you male or female?

Hmmm... I'm hesitant to trust you--I just got done explaining why I think you're a Reckoner after all--but at the same time we both could probably use the intel that the other has. Unfortunately, I can't create a PM with you until next cycle, and I really don't want to put my info out there where the whole thread can see it. How much information do you suggest we trade? Also, a question to pose to you, have you accounted for the Gifter Epic who gave Elith the Epic powers C1? Because if not, that proves there's at least one Epic still on the loose, without me saying anything not publicly known.

@Drake Marshall I know you're either deceived or lying, because at the end of last cycle I was affected by an Epic's action. Furthermore, I have intel that suggests there may even be a second Epic alive. Additionally, you seem to be quite in the know about the game state. How did you get PMs with so many people?

I don't really know. Makes sense, though. You're forgetting Crimsn. Drake likely has one living accomplice. Also, I don't think it would affect whether or not they'd kill you if you revealed one of them. They're likely to kill either me for analyzing, or whomever they think is Cabal. With the pressure they're likely under with the loss of Mark and then Drake, I doubt they'll have any kill actions to spare. If you think you know who the last Reckoner is, then announce it, so the Cabal can kill them tonight to end the game. Great to hear.

Well I'm glad that we lynched Mark, because the Cabal lost one as well. Arin was the thief, and it looks like he stole a sniper rifle off of someone, likely Mark. There are currently over 10 players alive, and at least 2 are likely with the Reckoners. @RippleGylf Do you have Ecth's motion detector? More analysis to come. Edit: I think I've cracked at least some of it! First off, I think I've found out what I am: I'm the anti-Roadwalker. Road, near the beginning, claimed that he had a win con to eliminate players but that it didn't conflict with the village's (or at lease what he thought was the village's) win con. Looking at the game state now, Road's win con was likely to eliminate the Cabal, just as mine is to eliminate the Reckoners. Road thought the Cabal was a neutral faction not related to the elims, so he thought he was an executioner of sorts, while really he was meant to ally with the Reckoners against the Cabal. Also, Road made a joke action his first turn, so he must have had no real actions to do, just like me. Now, to business. I'm 85% certain that Drake is a Reckoner. Reason 1 (admittedly a weak PoE analysis, but it corroborates with my other analysis): The Reckoners obviously have a PM system set up. Mark basically admitted it when he mentioned that they have contact with a large number of the neutral roles. Now to have a PM system that size, with that kind of information shared, requires a very active player. Of the 10 living players right now, only 4 of the 10 have been around and posting enough to keep a PM decently active, those being me, Drake, King Cole, and Elith. I have a good read on Elith (he knew the neutral color), so that leaves us with either Cole or Drake as the PM guy. Reason 2 (stronger but still has room for error): On page 26, Drake says this: Drake here uses some interesting logic: he assumes that Crimsn told the truth about her role/alignment. But just like in a normal game, both the good and the evil are going to claim to be good, so you'd think Drake would have been a little more skeptical about Crimsn's alignment. However, if you assume that Drake and Crimsn are evil together--and we know Crimsn is evil from Mark--it makes perfect sense: Drake wanted to get Crimsn trusted as a dead neutral so that analysts couldn't use her actions to determine who the Reckoners are. Drake's "assumptions" are the same principle as when Eternum somehow knew that a given kill was the Cabal kill. Reason 3 (the lynchpin of my argument): This is where I really got suspicious of Drake. Page 28, about halfway down, public opinion turns against Arin and Mark. Mark, as we know now, was a Reckoner. Alv opens the voting by voting Mark. Everyone in this game knows about the potential for bandwagons, so it's very telling that Drake immediately puts down a vote on Arin, tying the lynch. Drake moved to protect Mark from the lynch, but he's discreet about it: he doesn't even back his vote with logic, he just says he wants to tie things up. This definitely seems like Drake wanted to keep Mark alive but do it in an unsuspicious way. Unfortunately for us, there are only 10 people left alive, and inactivity has begun to be a thing. @Sami @King Cole @Shqueeves @Rebecca @RippleGylf @Hemalurgic_Headshot @Elithanathile Please look over my case against Drake, ask any questions to either of us that you are inclined to ask, and then place your votes. If Drake has an ally still living--20% rule implies 5 elims in a 25-person game, after all--that could make this vote difficult to win with the current level of activity.

I don't want to be boring, so Len. I don't want to have to deal with that monster of a name either, so Searanatha theranson threson the 45th and a half @Megasif @King Cole Orange votes will only Roleblock them. If you want them out of the game you'll need to lynch them.

@Mark IV I agree with you that Winter likely liked Crimsn. But now that Winter is dead, that kill is off of the playing field. Your kill, which you haven't denied having, is still on the field. I didn't know that there were fake IDs on the field or that they showed up as Loyal Citizen. But I'm an actual Loyal Citizen, so I can't tell you if many neutrals have fake IDs or not. If I was a true neutral, at this point you would have me convinced not to vote on you. But my win condition is contingent on your death, so of course I'm going to push for your lynch.

Amarthion hammered the last of his posters into the wall. Each of them was emblazoned with a large title--"Lonely Gentleman Seeking Loving Bride"--a picture of him in his best suit, and a small block of fine print--"Must be female. Flirting RP preferred but not required. Adoptions at wife's choice." He stepped back and looked over the poster. It almost sounded too formal, but Amarthion hadn't done something like this before. It would have been strange if he had, after all.

@Mark IVMy win con is contingent on the elimination of the Reckoners, and it's fairly obvious that the Reckoners are hiding among the claimed neutrals. A true neutral wouldn't be as likely to lie as a Reckoner, so when you made the dubious protection claim that drastically raised my suspicions of you being a Reckoner. To all players: for the Reckoners to have attempted to WGG Crimsn, that means they have a kill, likely a faction kill. That makes Mark basically an outed elim.

That's not correct. I tossed my items = Reckoners theory after we mislynched Alv, because it obviously isn't working. If you claimed a role double-life power I'd also likely believe you, especially if you had claimed it to someone else. If you claimed protected by a factionmate, that would tell us all you are in a faction, but it would also give a good explanation as to why protection would have been on you. I'm not saying there's no chance that you were actually protected out of the blue. I'm just saying that, given the game state and lack of anyone corroborating your claim, I think it's more likely than not that you're lying. I've been claiming Loyal Citizen since D1, and never since then has anyone claimed to be green but not Loyal Citizen. That means there's either no green at all in this game (a very risky gamble for me to take, especially since at the time I didn't know much about distribution), or I'm village.

If I'm not village, then it would be incredibly risky to claim having green Loyal Citizen, because then any true villager could have called me out for putting the wrong name with the green color. Ergo, I wouldn't have claimed this alignment unless I really had it. Trust me, I'd rather be neutral with all of your flashy powers and abilities.

Basically. I'm village, but I'm thinking that might be a joke on the part of the GMs, making me the loyal one.

Sorry Mark but the idea of someone protecting you out of the blue sounds a bit dubious. A spare life I can see. Being protected by a teammate I can see. But I don't see how someone with a spare protect to throw around would have known to protect you. You usually don't attract too many kills IIRC. And @Ecthelion III since you were suspicious of my claim of Loyal Citizen earlier, I assume you're a neutral?

To clarify: your motion sensor allows the owner to survive an attack? @Mark IVWhat do you have to say about your survival?

After how helpful Mark just was to my understanding of the game state, I'm not really inclined to lynch him. Mark Something I do want everyone to notice is that Epic powers on one side seem to be balanced by items on the other. And here Alv is claiming to have lost 2 items. That means he's very likely not an epic or Loyal Citizen (because I have no items), and therefore likely either a Malcontent or a Reckoner. Edit: Road didn't have any items, so that makes it more likely that Alv is a Reckoner than a Malcontent. Edit 2: Vote tally: Arin (3): Ecth, Drake, Eternum Mark (1): Alv Alv (2): Len, Mark @Drake Marshall @Eternum Would you consider switching your votes to Alv, a likely Reckoner? (Ecth is at work until after rollover)