DeTess

You voted after Kynedath confirmed Sart was cleared though... edit: and your argument for voting on Sart was as part of a hunt for the elims: Your story really isn't holding up here. Shard of reading for now.

I agree that there need to be two impersonators, but as I mentioned one impersonator could not have voted, which means their disappearing vote would not appear. Also, we know about Elkanah because he got stalked, and I don't think that would have given a result if he was role-blocked ( @A Joe in the Bush, would someone that gets roleblocked show up as having targeted someone by a stalker). So in the C1 case, we have two impersonators, one of which is wilson, and the other didn't vote, and two smugglers, one being elkanah removing one vote from Straw, and one removing one of Rae or Orlok (probably Orlok) from Straw.

@TJ Shade, Elkanah claimed to have smuggled Araris' vote off C1. For your analysis to work there, there'd have to be another smuggler that hit one of Orlok and Arraenae, while the impersonator didn't vote at all. That means the impersonator has to be one of: silber, coda, kynedath, zillah, mist, devotary, TJ, megasif or bugsy. Megasif and TJ only subbed in later, so it's probably not them, and Devotary and Kynedath have role-claims, meaning that it is one of Silber, Coda, Zillah, Mist or Bugsy. Anyway, I want to start with another pass of the entire player list, seeing who we can rule out from being elims: So, off these, Little wilson is pretty much cleared because of her efforts in hunting the elims. The same goes for Devotary as they provided the information that got furami suspected and killed. I know I'm not an elim either, and I think today's attack on me should confirm that for everyone else as well. Pyro suspected Sart of being bleeder quite heavily, so we can drop him from the 'elim suspect' list as well. I think that's all the ones that I consider to be 99.7% likely to be not an elim. There's a couple more people I think I can exclude however. Matrim's Dice had a little argument with Pyro that seemed really genuine, so I think they can be dropped off the list. Pyro also went after Bugsy in his last cycle alive, and the push for pyro's lynch hadn't really taken off yet. Still, Bugsy would be a less certain clear here. That leaves us with 14 potential suspects: From these I've got a fairly good gut read on TJ and, at the moment, a big shrug on the alignment of all the others. Given my addendum to TJ's analysis above, I feel like lynching someone in the overlap between 'possible elim' and 'possible elim impersonator'. That means one of Silber, Coda, Zillah or Mist Silber Silber has been very NAI, but there are some things that stood out to me. He made something off a push for a lynch on karnage after they'd outed straw as an elim, which isn't a good look. For the rest they pushed for a pyro lynch several times which is NAI, and once for Xino based on a bleeder suspicion. Overall, I'm leading somewhat elim on Silber, but he's difficult to read. However, I don't think he and XIno can both be elims, so if one flips as an elim, it'll clear the other. Coda Looking at his posts that I haven't looked at yet, there's another interesting turnaround. Back during the Elkanah lynch he was very much against doing a bleeder-based lynch, and tried to go after pyro (NAI), but then the cycle after that eh was in favor of spending time to get bleeder, warning against the dangers of a living bleeder. Overall, my read on Coda is unchanged as still being a mild elim read. Zillah Not muhc more content since the last time I looked at her, but Fura has flipped elim, so I'm leaning more village on them. Mist Mist has been doing a decent bit of analysis. She also spotted the problem with Pyro far sooner than I did. Her statements so far seems sensible, but we need some lynches in her list of suspicions to be able to properly read her. Though I do think elim!mist would have known her team had already killed Rae neutral, leaning slightly village. So, of these, I think I'd be most in favor of either a coda or Silver lynch. I think a lord_Silberfarben lynch could be the more informative of the two of he flips elim as it'll clear Xino imho.

Yes, I did not submit an action that cycle.

I mean, not an entirely unreasonable stance to take given the circumstances That having been said, I do agree with Kynedath somewhat. It's easy to hide behind the analysis of others, and the nice thing about it is that any fallout of that analysis being wrong generally won't reach you unless the people making said analysis are evil. That's why a lack of original thought can be seen as an elim tell. I don't think you're evil because some of your interactions with Pyro seemed really genuine, but that's all the more reason to come up with your own analysis, because it adds things to the discussion. I realize that you're new and that this game has been a lot more involved than usual but still. If you want a suggestion, go look through the posts of all the people you just listed and start pointing out things that stood out to you as being alignment indicative. Be careful not to fall in the trap of only looking for stuff that incriminates them though. Also be open-minded to the possibility that there might be things that make them look more village. edit: I realize I also haven't been too helpful with analysis these past couple of days. I'll try to get some new thoughts up soonish though, but it'll probably have to wait till the second day of this cycle.

I can see some of these based on 'there's no reason for them not to be', but Devotary provided the stalk action that got Furami under suspicion and then (presumably) killed.

I agree that Sart is not an elim. Pyro was going after him too hard for that to be the case. And with Kynedath's scan I think that means they can't be Bleeder. @A Joe in the Bush, is a renowned guaranteed tog et the other role on their second scan?

Given that the elims have already cleared me of being bleeder: No I do not. edit: I lynched pyro because he was rapidly becoming a larger threat to the village than bleeder was, given how he had everyone focused on lynching bleeder-suspects that where guaranteed to be village if we missed. Going on like that would have guaranteed a village loss. For that same reason, unless we get a solid lead on Bleeder, we should be focusing on lynching elims now. Because if we keep going on with the wild goose chase of trying to find bleeder, we soon won't have enough lynches left to actually go after bleeder, even if she were to directly claim in the thread. Regarding Xino, I don't think they're bleeder. They could be an elim, but their stated willingness to be lynched alongside pyro would be very out of character for bleeder (while an elim could count on elim vote manipulation to ensure only one of the two died.

AI: alignment indicative. It's the opposite of NAI: non-alignment indicative An equal amount of votes was moved off both actually. Xino got one vote soothed and one vote moved to pyro, while pyro had two votes soothed off. That does suggest that the elim vote manip was focussed on Pyro though.

So, elims, question.. since pyro claimed you'd be trying to kill me if I was being right about stuff, does this mean I was right about stuff? It is a shame that the tie failed though, as I'd have really liked to have the additional info from a xino lynch, as lynching Elim!xino would have cleared TJ, while I reckon lynching village!xino would have helped prove some theories as well, or at least started getting us some lynch momentum back. I'm considering giving the Xino lynch another go, if only because last cycle Xino actually got around to making some AI comments. I'm curious about the way this vote manip played out though. Could it be that the elims actually moved votes to save Xino, rather than risk a tie?

I won't deny that you've been useful in finding bleeder, but you've been doing so in a way that guarantees that, provided we follow your directions, we won't be lynching any elims by accident if we misslynch. So, as long as we follow your directions, we're lynching either villagers or bleeder, which is mostly to the benefit of the elims. Without your guidance elims are once again up for murdering, as they should be. So please don't see my push for you to be taken out as a sign that I think you're not helpful for finding bleeder. The problem is you're helpful in a way that benefits the elims a lot, and the village far less, to the point that we'd be getting in trouble if this kept up for much longer.

Actually, we're at Lylo the moment the village and the elims reach parity (equal numbers). After that the game is practically over for the village, and the only remaining question is whether Bleeder or the elims win. There's 21 people alive right now. With an average of 3 deaths per cycle we'll be down to 12 in three cycles. Assuming 6 elims remaining(original team size of 8) means we have at most three more mislynches before parity. And the lynch on Bleeder will count as one of these mislynches. So things are reasonably close at this point. I'm totally on board for a pyro/xino tie btw, which means that my vote needs to remain where it is for now.

Sart also has a provable alibi. And bleeder has shown to be willing to spend cycles scanning, so even if there is no bleeder kill (how do we know that? Have the elims claimed which attack was theirs?) It doesn't mean anything. Sart being roleblocked means we know less than if he hadn't been, rather than more.

No, I don't think you would have. Killing me like that would have shot your entire 'elims and village working together' narrative to pieces, and would have made people take a close look at what I said that made you do that. And make no mistake, at this point its clear that it is just a narrative. The RB on Sart makes no sense if the elims where being honest in working with the village. If Sart had been allowed to act, we'd either have confirmation of his alibi, or confirmation of him being bleeder. But it is not in the elim's interest to confirm alibi's on non-elims through non-lethal means. Sure, it might make the hunt on bleeder take slightly longer, but it'll also weaken the village even more. I am coming to regret being against an early Pyro lynch. I assumed he wouldn't be able to harm the village much, but its clear he's managed to get most of the village wasting time on a hunt that should be done through power-roles. So if it takes a wasted lynch on Pyro to get everyone in the village to focus on all their enemies again, I guess that's what I'll have to resort too. Sart has a very good chance of being another HH. And after that, we won't be able to afford to spend any lynches on bleeder anymore, because we'd be butting up against Lylo. The reason we have no clues for finding the elims is because for the past two cycles, the village hasn't really been looking. edit: I apologize for coming across as overly cranky. I'm mostly annoyed with myself because I missed such an obvious play by the elims to distract the village. It's actually a really good play by Pyro and something he should be commended on after the game is over.

That was very unhelpful, as now we can't confirm his alibi in any way. Of course, it doesn't matter much for the elims if we spent more time going after non-elims that might be bleeder which we could have cleared, right? Also, what makes you so certain that bleeder didn't kill this night? Or are you claiming that the elims where responsible for both kills? Not a chance. Everyone else might have forgotten, but the elims are just as much the village's enemy as Bleeder is. I do appreciate the fact that I'm apparently getting pretty close with my analysis, as you wouldn't be worried about ti otherwise

Things is, we've been spending lynches to 'kill bleeder now' for two cycles now. This'd be the the third one. We did get good headstart on the elims early on, but at this rate the village has lost whatever advantage we had from that because we've been failing at finding bleeder. So unless another thing on the level of Elkanah pops up ( someone either scanned as having a suspicious role, or stalked for targeting Bleeder's targets) we really need to get back to trying to find the remaining elims.

Because lynching pyro won't really gain us much. If we lynch pyro, we'll only gain a dead elim. If we lynch literally anyone else we'll get discussion, information from vote analysis and the like, and hopefully some dead elims in the long run as well. Basically, the nice thing about lynching an elim under normal circumstances it that it will give us a lot more to analyze and to form reads with. Lynching a 100% confirmed elim like pyro only gets us a dead elim, and nothing more. That's why I've been asking for a bartender to do him in, as that way we won't have to waste a lynch on pyro.

Well, this is interesting. Not the result of the HH lynch as much, as that lynch was literally only motivated by the fact that he wasn't cleared of being Bleeder. That's a very poor reason to lynch btw, at least if you're a villager, and I'll be very much against any further bleeder lynches that aren't backed up by some serious evidence or process of elimination. Now, there where two kills this cycle, which is one less than I'd have expected given that there should be at least 1 village bartender still active. Both targets of the kills also survived @The Young Pyromancer, would you be willing to claim which one was yours? @Sart, @little wilson, I assume that Wilson moved a vote to Sart, and Sart moved a vote off of him? Right now I'm going to vote Xinoehp. TJ made a good case about them being an elim, and their survival means that they could be bleeder as well. Other people I'm wary off are Coda and the archivist (still), but Kynedath is back on my radar as well. @Kynedath, can you explain why you voted HH last cycle? Actually, consider this a more general call. I know why Pyro would vote on HH (not an elim, no reason to assume he's not bleeder), but I'm having some trouble seeing why everyone else did so. It seems a bit late in the game to lynch someone purely because there wasn't any reason to trust them

Basically this: Sart can prove his claimed role. If he can't we'll lynch him. Even if bleeder doesn't kill coming cycle I'm still fine with letting Sart live as long as he uses his vote manip ability, because even if he is bleeder, he can't really do anything anymore. I have no reason to suspect HH over anyone else at this point, so I don't see a reason to vote them, so my vote'll remain in place for now. Instead, I'm going to waste some time speculating on the remainder of the elim team based on Pyro's posts: So, if we assume Pyro's speaking the truth here* there's a couple of things we can learn about the elim team. First of all, the remaining elims are quiet. Pyro has been extremely active, but I don't think he would be complaining about elim activity if they where merely normally active. Second of all, there are at least two members of the team that Pyro considers more experienced than he is, but not everyone in the elim team falls in that category. So, let's see what remains of the living player list if we start ruling out people based on this metric. First, on the activity metric we can rule out me, wilson, bugsy, megasif and matrim's dice. We can also rule out HH and Sart, as Pyro wouldn't be pushing their lynches of he knew they weren't bleeder, and rule out devotary because of hsi role in getting Fura killed. Then, splitting up the list by people who pyro would likely consider more experience than himself, and people he'd likely consider less so (this is not meant as a value judgement on any of these people, btw. We where all new and inexperienced once): So, based on the assumptions we made before, this'd mean that both Kynedath and BR have to be evil to fill the 'experienced player' quota. Then there would be 2-4 more from the less experienced list. Of these, I'd say Xinoehhp is likely, as are Coda and the the archivist. TJ is a possibility because pyro was willing to give up a team-mate for some reason, and that only makes sense if it was someone completely inactive, but TJ himself looks fairly village. So yeah, based on this I'd say the remaining elims beyond pyro are Kynedath, BR, Xinoehp, coda and the archivist. If at least half of these are true, I suggest the elims use their kill to deal with a leak *note: pyro could be trolling. Assuming he's speaking the truth is dangerous. Nevertheless, it's an interesting thought-exercise that might reveal some interesting insights.

Not 100%, but bleeder only gets one action. Since Sart claimed he'd continue using that visible ability, it should be easy to determine whether they're bleeder or not. If their vote manip stops and bleeder killing starts, we know that they need to be lynched.

It's a plan based on assuming everyone acts purely logically. As we're all humans here, that makes it flawed. For example, based purely on logic, everyone with scans or action claims that'd rule them or other people out from being bleeder should have contacted me or Wilson by now. I don't know about Wilson, but I've yet to receive any PM's. Anyway, please don't take this the wrong way. Your plan makes sense from a logical standpoint, it's just highly unlikely to work out in practice in a game like this.

As much as I'm suspicious of them, I don't think Sart's bleeder, as they did have a claim for an alibi that rules that out. Yeah, the main problem with spending too much thread-time hunting bleeder is that we're not learning anything new regarding the elims. The moment we return to elim-hunting mode we can learn more about who they could be based on who protects who and the like.

I didn't actually, I think I see the basis off it, but I'm not a fan of the excessive mayoring it requires. I'll happily share any info on who has alibis for not being bleeder that reaches me so people can use their actions on the remainder, but I don't think any in-depth coordination system will stand up to reality, especially given that there's two hostile factions hunting bleeder at the same time.

I'll happily take whatever information you have for finding bleeder. But I won't make it my sole focus for the next however many cycles it'll take. Frankly, finding bleeder is something that's easiest done through power roles, while hunting elims is easiest done through the lynch.

Both are dangerous, and both need to be dealt with by the village. Right now, there's been a bit of focus on bleeder, but if we don't catch her this cycle, we'll need to swap attention back to the elims. I don't think lynching pyro will gain us anything other than the death of an elim that we already know existed though. They're a decent target for a bartender, and if that doesn't work we'll have to spend a lynch on them. However, the main point of the lynch is confirming elims we didn't know about before. Killing said elims is more of a side effect. Yes, the elims need to die, but lynching pyro when we can just leave him to a kill role is a waste of time when we could be focusing on finding the rest of the elims. In addition, I think I've got some decent clues to the identities of the rest of the elim team, as well as a couple of village confirmations from Pyro's posts, so I think their continued surival has been very useful for the village so far.