DeTess

Heh, fair. That gave you an 'action failed' result, right?

I mean, I wouldn't mind being a central collection point for scan results, but I don't think there's any solid reason for people to trust me right now, and I wasn't planning on doing any coordinating beyond 'hey, person X, Y and Z has an alibi and probably don't need additional checking'.

Talk about coming out of the gate swinging I assume you've done this before? Anyway, there are a couple of questions/comments I have. First is on this point. The assumption on Elkanah was that he was bleeder, so the elims wouldn't know that it was a mislynch, if I'm not mistaken. They knew elkanah wasn't an elim, of course, but that wasn't the assumption he was lynched on. That's not to say that I think there aren't any elims on the lynch, just that they wouldn't be behaving as elims trying to push a mislynch, as both elims and village wanted to get bleeder. This is a really good point. I had Xinoehp listed as neutral/slightly elim mostly for a lack of content but this is an interesting interaction. Close, but not quite. Devotary has claimed stalker, and he scanned Elkanah C2, seeing that he targeted karnage. Someone else scanned him C1, seeing that Elkanah targeted Araris. Elkanah admitted to these, but claimed that he was a smuggler targeting both of them for vote manip. So it wasn't a case of false information (as the information was true) but of then drawing the wrong conclusions based on that information. I don't think there's any way in which Pyro can be bleeder. The elims will lose if bleeder wins, so even if they had a deal before, the moment pyro started calling for lord winsting to claim to him, the elims would have had to put a stop to it, because otherwise they'd just lose. And all they'd need to do to get pyro lynched is to have one of their members counterclaim pyro's assertions. That'd cost them another member, but at least they'd remain in the game.

To be precise, I didn't know for certain Devotary was the Stalker, and I believe all I've claimed is that they where a link in the PM chain that got that info to me. That having been said, I'd expect the real stalker to counter-claim if Devotary was lying, so I have no reason to assume that they're not the stalker. IIRC they claimed to have scanned elkanah C2, so they're indeed out of the running for being Bleeder. I'm not so certain. If bleeder gets stalked while killing the wrong person, that'll look really bad. If they only scan there is no reason to assume that they're bleeder or an elim though. (also, if you could use 'her' instead of 'him' when referring to me, I'd appreciate it) That having been said, it seems Sart has an alibi, though I'd love it if a scanner role (renowned or stalker) could confirm it as Sart was my best guess for being bleeder. Other takes I have from the last couple of pages is that dice is 90% certain to not be an elim based on their interactions with Pyro just now. It seems the overall focus is on lynching Bleeder right now. Unfortunately, there isn't as much direct analysis to do here, as bleeder doesn't have a team they can be tied too, so the only noteworthy thing to look out for is someone focussing on self-preservation. The best way to find bleeder is through action claims and coordination of scans. Unfortunately, doing so would involve revealing a lot of important roles in the thread, which isn't a good thing. I think little Wilson is confirmed village at this point, given the role-claim Sart got, so it might be a good idea to coordinate action-claims through her, if @little wilson is okay with that. That way we should get all the info, without the risk of exposing important villagers to the elims. Anyway, let's make a quick overview of who could be Bleeder. The surviving players are: Of these, Young pyro is a claimed elim (and if he's lying, I'd expect the elims to make a lethal counterclaim because they need to get rid of Bleeder as well). Julius has been afk, so can't really be bleeder, and Megasif subbed in as well after some clear activity by bleeder, so he's unlikely to be bleeder either. Little Wilson can't be bleeder assuming Sart's claim of their roles is correct ( @Sart, I assume you're very certain of those?). Sart has an alibi of his own, so I assume we can drop him from the list as well, though I'd love to see that alibi confirmed in some solid way. And I think that's it. That means we're left with a suspect pool of 16 players, counting myself. I suspect this pool can be further reduced through action claims, but I'm not certain how much further I'll get with analysis alone. I'd also note that I think the archivist is less likely to be Bleeder because of her strategizing on keeping Karnage allive, but I know bleeder!me would have done the same thing if I had reason to assume karnage was flogs, so I can't rule them out yet. That having been said, I don't think I've looked over HH yet Hemalurgic headshot They're a member of the 'defended Straw C1 club' as well. Apart from that they haven't been contributing too much, but its clear that they're at the very least trying to keep up and do their own analysis, which I can respect. Unfortunately, there isn't enough fro me to have any sort of definitive read on them. Also, to answer @BrightnessRadiant's question. For elims, my suspicions are on Coda and the Archivist (and pyro, but he doesn't really count) I don't have any solid suspicions for Bleeder now that Sart has an ellibi. I also think Wilson and Devotary are most likely village, and matrim's dice is not an elim.

Well, I reckon you know of at least four people you can safely nightkill, so you could start with them to mitigate that risk That having been said, I'm not 100% certain this is a good idea. Yes, the elims would want to avoid night-killing Winsting because they'll lose otherwise. But I have to wonder what'll happen if the game reaches a point where the elims will lose anyway.

Sure. karnage scanned straw as an elim, and straw got lynched. Furami was killed by a bartender and was evil as well. Pyro claimed elim. Elkanah was lynched because he targeted both Araris when he was killed an karnage when he was attacked, which made it pretty likely he was bleeder. He wasn't though. I think that's all the main events? You probably should read through them when you've got the chance to form your own reads on people based on these events.

I'm fairly certain Wilson's joking here.

speaking of which, why do you think we should lynch Pyro now? What useful information do you think we'll gain if we do so? For example, I'd prefer to learn whether the elims have a bodyguard by letting the bartender try to deal with Pyro instead. If that doesn't work, we can waste a cycle dealing with pyro.

I don't really know why megasif has decided to vote on Coda though. @Megasif, some explanation would be nice.

@The Young Pyromancer, why Rae of all people? There was only a single bit of vote manip this cycle, which was probably a self-defense move by Elkanah. I'm ging to start this cycle off with a vote on Coda. I'm suspicious of them, as I explained last cycle, and they've been pretty silent as well, so I hope this'll prompt some response from them.

Alright, Ive got time for a couple more ISO reads. Lord silberfarben His posts have been pretty much entirely one-liners or RP, making him next to impossible to read. @Lord_Silberfarben, I realize it might be difficult to catch up at this point, but could you make the attempt anyway? I would really like to see some reads from you so that I can start getting a better read on you. And if you can't find the time for a full read through, maybe you could focus on 2 to 3 people that stood out to you? that might take less time and woulds till give us some content to look through. coda Coda is a member of the 'defended straw C1 club'. That's fairly NAI though. What I think is more noteworthy is their post C2 where they vote on straw. The way they highlight how they had been fooled by Straw feels a bit over-acted, like an elim trying to compensate for an earlier defense. I also find it noteworthy that they seemed to beleive Karnage's claim of being flogs independently of their claim on Straw's alignment. Those seemed pretty linked to me. The way that was phrased makes it seem to me that Coda knew karnage wasn't an elim to begin with. At the moment I'm fairly suspicious of Coda. Kynedath Kynedath also joins the 'defended straw C1 club', though they were less overt about it than some others (actually not really. their first defense was less overt, but he wrote a pretty good thesis against infolynching. That was pretty NAI though), merely mentioning being against lynching the super-actives C1, and mentioning Straw as being part of that group. Also of note is Kynedath mentioning suspicion of Pyro C1. That looks fairly village, I think, as there wasn't too much reason to go for a distancing play there. For the rest, Kynedath seems to be playing the game pretty much as usual, with a decent amount of analysis. The only thing that I disliked about that was the speed with which he backed off from his suspicion of me once I challenged it. If my defense was really so logically sound I feel like I wouldn't have had to make it? Unfortunately, Furami pointed out this exact thing, which really muddies the water. At that point Furami might have been distancing, or he might not have been, or he might have decided to do something that looks like distancing if he died, but would allow for a reasonable vote if he didn't. Overall, I'm leaning mildly village on Kynedath. Their overall gameplan is informative and helpful, and their villagery actions outweigh the things I find suspicious.

Actually, the 5th octant doesn't need to personally kill Dowser, so the lynch would have the same effect. I could totally see dowser!elkanah making that claim, knowing that he'd die, but at least he'd die to an elim attack, freeing up a lynch. My main suspicion comes from your post at the start of C2, where you where calling for protection for karnage. I think its less likely fora villager to jump to that conclusion than an elim. For a villager there was no reason to assume that karnage was good despite their survival. An elim would know karnage wasn't an elim though, so the 'oh no, he might be Flogs' conclusion would come more naturally. In addition: Elkanah flipping village in no way throws suspicion on Devotary. Elkanah has admitted to the actions scanned by Devotary, so even if it was all a mega!chaos!play by village!Elkanah it still doesn't indicate foul play on the part of devotary. Your maneuvering to throw shade on devotary for a bad outcome also reads a bit suspect to me. It'd give elim!you a win either way. Either bleeder is lynched, or you're set for a mislynch on Devotary. The best fit outside of Elkanah I can think of is Sart. I don't think they're an elim given their vote on Straw, but their self-preservation play doesn't sit well with me. Them being bleeder actually fits the facts better than them being an elim or a villager imho.

Devotary claimed otherwise:

Are you claiming Elkanah targeted Karnage last cycle? If so, I'm fine with an Elkanah (archivist) lynch. I don't think we should spend too much time hunting bleeder, but if a good suspicion like this turns up, there's no reason not to take her out while we're at it. Anyway, I'm going to continue catching up on my ISO reads, starting with Sart Sart Sart was actually an early voter on Straw, being the one to first put them in the danger zone (3 votes) over karnage. I'd missed this initially, but that actually looks pretty village to me. Its a shame that that was followed up with the blatant self-protection vote which looks the opposite to me. A villager's goal is to get the elims lynched, while the goal of the elims is essentially to survive untill all the villagers are dead. The elims, being fewer in number are therefore far more focused on survival, while the villagers should be more focussed on information and finding the truth. Lynching someone you don't at all suspect is the opposite of a village play in my experience. However, i'm having trouble seeing elim!Sart making that vote on straw, unless Sart is far more of a busser than I remember? Sart's comments in later cycles are fairly NAI though. So overall, I'm confused by Sart's alignment. I've seen them do one thing that makes me lean very village, and another thing that makes me lean very elim, so its a confused shrug for now. Devotary of spontaneity Devotary's posts worry me a bit in just how NAI all of it is. They seem to be just going with the flow, with their votes so far being on fairly 'obvious' targets. However, it should be noted that he was a link in the PM chain that got that bit about Fura's action out in the open, and I don't think elim!devotary would have passed that on to me like that. Overall I'm leaning slightly village, but I'd really like to see some more thoughts from Devotary. @Devotary of Spontaneity, is there anyone you particularly trust or distrust right now? Experience His thoughts on Straw are slightly interesting. Unlike most people I've looked at in depth so far he expressed general uncertainty about their alignment. I'm not sure if that's telling about their alignment or not though. Apart from that, he seems to have followed along with the flow of votes on elims. However, I do like that they expressed some reads on TGK adn shard of reading, though I'd like to learn moer about why he reads them as village. Read: Neutral Shard of reading Shard's part of the 'defended Straw C1 club'. I generally consider that NAI, but I don't really like them quoting 'C1 lynches aren't accurate' as a reason, as the only thing that's an argument for is not having a C1 lynch at all, rather than being an argument against any particular lynch. It kinda feels like he's trying to bring in every possible reason he can think off, rather than just the things that are sensible, which would be a more elim thing to do. For the rest, things are mostly NAI. The vote on TGK is reasonably well explained. He's been coasting a lot in C2 and C3 though, which I don't like. @Shard of Reading Is there anyone you're particularly suspicious or trusting of right now? Read: neutral/slight elim

I mean, if people decide its too risky we can always decide to lynch Pyro at the end of this cycle. But lets do so after having had a proper lynch discussion first. (speaking of discussion, I'll promise I do more than just respond to me being quoted before the cycle is over, but today really wasn't a good day for me. I'll see what I can do tomorrow though)

I know, but lynching pyro this cycle makes the lynch pretty much a foregone conclusion, which reduces the amount of info from discussion we get. Unless you have reason to believe pyro has role we need to take off the field right now, I think lynching Pyro this cycle rather than leaving him to the bartenders will do more harm than good because it means we lose quite a bit of momentum wrt discussion.

Okay, so we can't quite rule out bleeder!karnage yet. edit: honestly though, this'll resolve itself eventually. Either bleeder succeeds in killing karnage, or she seems to 'give up' after a bit and starts killing others, and the moment she hits the actual flogs, we'll know that Karnage was playing games.

... I think I forgot to retract my vote on Fura? Either that or my vote got moved. Also, 3 votes got moved off of Straw, which is a worryingly large amount. Now regarding the dead, Striker was good, Fura was bad, straw was bad, and Karnage got attacked and survived. The kill on Orlok was almost certainly the elims, which makes the attack on Karnage almost certainly bleeder. @A Joe in the Bush, can bleeder attack herself? Fura's death and reveal as an elim also means that Elkanah is less likely to be an elim, given that they where accused of also targeting Araris C1, and I don't see why the elims would target their kill victim with anything else. Given the amount of extra kills, there were at least two village bartenders, though one of those might have been Striker. Still, that means we've got one left. For this reason, I'd like to say I'm against lynching Pyro this cycle, despite them being a revealed elim. We know there are village bartenders that could take care of that, and going for a lynch on another revealed elim again could end up with us short on info afterwards. So, having said that I'm going to put a vote on the archivist for now. Among those living and not pyro, I'm most suspicious of Archivist and Sart right now. I'll try to get some more analysis done today, but its more likely that'll be something I get to tomorrow. Today's not exactly been a good one for me so far, which has really hurt my motivation to do anything.

I think pyro suggested something like that. It makes a reasonable amount of sense as an elim play to take out Orlok (and possibly Wilson) ASAP because of their role in trying to get Straw lynched C1. Orlok should be heavily trusted as being non-elim (note: no action by Orlok so far is out of character for Bleeder), I'd have to check Wilson's posts again to see if the same goes for her... Actually, I have some time right now, so let's do that. Little Wilson Wilson was the first vote on Straw C1, which is somewhat unfortunate for reading her. Its ostensibly a good sign, but could, given the early point of the game and the fact that it was a vote based on gut, have been a distancing technique that backfired. This interpretation isn't helped by her seeming to prepare to back off from the Straw vote towards the end of C1. C2 her first post is reinforcing her suspicion on Karnage and stating she won't cooperate with archivist's plan. This reads as village to me, both because she's deliberately denying herself a source of useful role-claims, and because villager would be more likely to feel that way about Karnage, while an elim would eb more likely to be worried about having flogs in the open... I'll get back to that post by the archivist in a bit. For the rest of C2, Wilson has been talking sense (and making me laugh out loud a couple of times as well with her fun new writing style). That isn't really alignment indicative imho because with the Pyro and Straw revealed any elim team-mate paying attention should have been distancing as hard as they could, but its still nice to see. Her most recent post about her being okay with being killed by the elims, though... If it had been anyone else, I'd say that was way over the top* and would make me suspicious again. However, I know that Wilson tends to get pretty annoyed if she gets killed early on in a game after she's been away for a time, so this declaration from her actually makes sense, and makes me lean village. So overall, I'm leaning villagenon-elim (note, whenever i'm talking about a village read, I'm actually meaning a non-elim read. Bleeder isn't as easy to catch, unfortunately) on Wilson. This is not as solid a read as on Orlok, but she looks pretty good overall. Anyway, so I mentioned a post by Archivist a way back. I missed it the first time, but them immediately assuming that karnage is flogs and good now doesn't sit as well with me. A villager is less likely to make that assumption than an elim, as an elim would know that karnage is not evil. So, let's take a look at the archivist as well now (I'm getting ninja'd like crazy, btw) The archivist He gets to join the 'spoke in defense of Straw C1' club for starters. He did that as part of a larger set of reads though, which is nice to see. There wasn't much else C1 apart from a vote on TGK. C2 they made the post I highlighted before. I also don't really like a lot of the rest of their activity. They spoke against the 'Karnage was extorted' theory, but then did suggest it cold be a potential bus, which feels like simultaneously distancing from straw while trying to keep the possibility for a karnage lynch later down the line open. Overall, I'm feeling mildly suspicious of the archivist now. *in an 'elims, as you are not my team-mates, I'll understand if you kill me. As that is something you do to trusted people that are not your team-mates. Did I mentioned that I'm not team-mates with the elims yet?' sort of way.

You can, just quote it into the new post editor and then cut it into the 'edit post' thingy. Don't worry too much about it though, this isn't exactly easy or intuitive.

He has said some (in my opinion) suspicious things, and he targeted Araris last cycle (as determined using the stalker power). Araris was targeted by the elims (or possibly, but unlikely, bleeder) to kill him, so anyone targeting araris is suspect. Regarding suspicious actions, some of Fura's suggestions this cycle could be construed as trying to protect Straw (such as the suggestion to lynch someone else and let straw be killed by a village bartender, who we don't even know exists yet). He also did some analysis last cycle on elim team size that conveniently ignored the point at which the elims have a basic majority, instead focusing purely on when they can disperse the party. This stood out to me because I don't think Fura would have missed that if he had been doing that analysis pure, rather than trying to sell a specific agenda.

Well then, I guess I'm going to get started on some player analysis, starting with Arraenae, because someone had already asked me to look her over. Arraenae C1 Rae provided some general faction and win-con analysis, as well as an in-depth analysis of Straw after he started accruing votes. She concluded that she didn't want to lynch straw because straw was generating discussion and pushing for information. Given straws apparent alignment this could be NAI, but I saw Straw in a similar way, so I can't really fault or suspect Rae for this. C2 is similar. She discussed the potential scenarios around Karnage's claim, which is interesting, but also fairly NAI. Her pointing out that bleeder!karnage is a reasonable situation could be constructed as trying to weaken a nearly-confirmed-villagers position though, which worries me a bit. Her conclusion isn't necessarily wrong though, but I think karnage's alignment will get resolved sooner rather than later because of the presence or lack of attacks by bleeder. I do like her vote on Pyro though. She points out that she's planning on joining the straw wagon, but wants to try and salvage some discussion from a cycle that was likely a forgone conclusion from the moment karnage claimed. Overall I'm leaning fairly neutral on Rae, mostly because the various alignment indicative content balances out. Brightnessradiant Her C1 is similar to Rae's in that there's a bunch of NAI discussion (on team-size, in BR's case), and a defense of Straw. She didn't go as in-depth on analyzing him first as Arraenae did, but once again I can't really fault her reasoning in this regard. Her vote on Karnage also doesn't really stand out much unless Sart (the one with the next highest votes) flips elim. If that happens, I'd be a lot more suspicious of BR again. I like the connections she's making based on people jumping in to defend straw C2. Its a shame that post wasn't a bit earlier, as as it stands it's not impossible for it to be part of a grand distancing strategy, but it does make me lean more village on her. ( @Karnage, I don't know if you're taking requests, but I wouldn't mind a scan of BR). Overall, I'm leaning mildly village, but pending more info on Sart's alignment. Bugsy This one's easy. He posted once saying he had an essay due, and would jump in after that. @Bugsy, how did your essay go? Is there anything you want to share regarding teh game? Bugsy ninja's me at some point during the writing off this post Zillah This stood out to me, not because of any AI content, but just because I think this comment by Zillah on one of Rae's posts was funny. @Zillah, Rae has been playing SE for longer than I have (oof, that sentence made me feel old), so I don't think she'd make a 'less experienced elim' play It should be noted that Zillah expressed a defense of straw C1, but also suspicions of Striker and Fura. I've said I found a defense of straw C1 NAI a couple of times now, but if Striker and/or fura end up as evil (which could quite easily happen), then Zillah should look pretty village. verdict: Neutral, but if either Striker or Fura flips elim, she'll look fairly village. Xinoehp I'm uncertain on Xino. Most of his posts are NAI, but there is one interesting one in C1 in which he joins the chorus of people defending straw. He also puts a vote on Sart there and shares some other reads. The vote on sart is interesting as Sart only had one vote at that point, so elim!xinoehp might have been better off voting Karnage to get heat off of Straw. I'd read Xinoehp slightly village for this, if he hadn't left the door open for a switch to karnage by expressing some suspicion of them as well. As it stands, I'm leaning neutral or slightly elim on Xino. @xinoehp512, excluding Straw, Pyro, Striker and furami, who would you be most suspicious off? I'm going to cut this post off at this point, to avoid losing it. I'll try to get some more reads in before the cycle is over though. edit: @Bugsy, since I started the idea that Bleeder is not a friend of the elims, allow to explain it a bit more. You are correct that bleeder wants to kill villagers. However, if she kills the right ones, its game over. She's a sudden-death win-con waiting to happen, especially once flogs goes down. That makes her a liability to the elims more than an asset, especially because she could target elims as well if she kills indiscriminately rather than scanning. And if she's scanning, she's not an asset to the elims at all, only a future problem.

Regarding Furami, they've send me a roleclaim, as expected. If there where more PM's I could have tried to get one before revealing the scan, but that'd take about 3 cycles in the game as it currently stands. Luckily roleclaims can be checked. Either Fura is telling the truth, or he's an elim. I think that, if Fura is an elim, then he's one without an active role (otherwise he wouldn't be submitting the kill), so even if another elim had the role he claimed (which is likely) a stalker would still be able to confirm Fura's targeting. Therefore, I'd prefer it if another Stalker could follow Fura around this cycle. Regarding this bit, the claim about Elkanah is interesting as well, though, as little wilson noted, its timing is suspect. Still, if Furami proves to be good, Elkanah almost certainly isn't (and vice-versa). In fact, for that alone, lynching or killing furami would be worth it, as we're likely to get an elim either way. Now, a couple more thoughts. A couple of people, including furami, suggested letting a bartender take care of Straw. I think that's a bad idea and a suspicious suggestion. We need straw down to confirm Karnage's claim, and a lynch is far harder to stop than a kill. A bodyguard among the elims could keep straw safe from the bartender though. @Orlok Tsubodai, I'm not actively suspicious of Wilson, I just don't have any reason to trust her yet (so I guess I'm passively suspicious?). @Kynedath, I'll get some actual analysis out soonish, but the combination of RL business and this game being ridiculously active has kept the amount of actual in-depth analysis I can do down. I think we've played enough games together that you should know by now that a change in playstyle like this is NAI for me, as I'm just as analytical as an elim if I have the time to do that. Also, could you answer those questions I asked you about your initial suspicion last cycle? I find it somewhat telling that you didn't respond to that yet. (straw, fura)

Araris defended Sart a bit when Sart got voted on. Also, my apologies if the one that PM'd me about this expected me to be more subtle, but: @Furamirionind, could you explain why you targeted Araris last cycle? ( furamirionind )

@The ArchivistI don't think its a good idea to use anyone who claims gossip as a go-between until their alignment is more solidly known. I'm not so much worried about little wilson (or anyone else claiming gossip for this plan) being bleeder, but about her being an elim. Bleeder can't really do anything about the bodyguards revealed to her without risking being revealed herself. The elims likely have far more options, however.