DeTess

This assumes that every player can be around just before roll-over, which is not a good assumption. For me it would be around 6 AM, and I have no intention of being up and awake enough to figure out who to vote that early on the regular. Some reads based on stuff I've seen in the thread: I thought Alpha felt a little different to last game, but on a reread I'm not really seeing it. They were a little more sensitive to getting voted on maybe? Putting them in the *shrug* category, but I' slightly more inclined to lean village right now than elim? Mat is being quite defensive which I think is a bit suspicious, especially this early in the game. It seems like they're a bit too sensitive to votes on them, so I'm leaning elim on them. I'm inclined to village read kasimir just for the amount of effort they seem to be putting into developing reads and getting to grips with the game, though I suspect they're not that different from Aman and the like in that regard where their elim playstyle isn't all that different. I definitely don't want to execute them anytime soon though. @Archer, what makes you read Sart's post as village leaning? Archer is giving me some odd vibes. In particular, what seems like an overestimation of the elim-team size stands out to me as odd, though I can't really figure out why an elim would do that. @Sart I'd like to point out that I didn't say I thought the rest of the rules weren't worth worrying about, just that I didn't see anything else that had discussion potential. You seem to disagree, so could you explain what you meant by the insanity hampering the elims ability to kill a little more? Anyone I didn't mention I don't really have feeling on right now, so I'm putting my vote on Mat as I suspect them most out of the few I have reads on.

I've got to say, a small game like this is a bit different to what I'm used to. Normally, being able to use mechanics to reduce the PoE to just three people on C2 would have made me very happy. Being on the elim team though, it definitely put the pressure on XD Sorry @_Stick_ for pushing that lynch on you C2 even though you really had a pretty solid alliby, but there wasn't really anyone else to push it on

@KasimirJust for my ease of reading your posts, the white thingy is a village read and the orange thingy is an elim read?

Regarding VitC, just reading it I feel like it might be slightly more useful to groups that can pull off coordinated action which is easier for the elims, but depending on the amount of writers in this game there could be sufficient ways for villagers to talk away from the thread to put it into action as a coordinated strike as well. Plus as was mentioned earlier it could affect the elims more than the village when they can't be entirely sure about the actual vote-count. So yeah, it's a tool useful for both sides. Reading through the rules, there's a lot going on, but apart from VitC I don't think most of it is actually game-changing and in need of discussion? Or am I missing something?

It might not be the only factor, but I've found playing SE is a good way to get your post count to balloon.

Hmmmm, I'd like to play as well, so sign me up.

That would make you the village's second coinshot, which is a lot of defensive power when the only source of kills is the elims, which makes me a little doubtful of this claim. If Aman hadn't claimed thug I might have been more inclined to believe it, but a thug and two coinshots seems overkill wrt defensive powers. Unless there is actually 3 elims, of course, but that would give the village only a single mislynch if the elims managed to get two kills in in the first two cycles anyway. Anyway, final post of this cycle, maybe this game. As I said, since it doesn't seem like people are interested in an Alpha execution this cycle I'll follow Stick's suggestion: Stick

Right so, rereading their posts and I think the main thing that stuck out to me was their push on Aman because it felt so different compared with everything else. It felt like either a mask temporarily coming off, or maybe something they put together in communication with collaborators, but it left me feeling quite suspicious. Anyway, I'll be off for the rest of the cycle in 2-3 hours, but I'll check in before then once, and if there is no interest in an Alpha execution I'll probably add my vote to the stick one instead.

It is true that JNV fits the first category, just as you fit the second. in fact, every player is oine one of the two categories defined by that quote, so untill we know more about the elim team there isn't much to be done with that, as said in the bit that immediately followed that quote: I'm not really taking that into account until we actually have a dead elim and can figure out which part of this divide the elim team is likely on. You not including that part to make it look like I'm contradicting myself is not making me lean any more village on you. That's the main thing. Everything before that seemed to be new player confusionish stuff which usually gives me a very slight village lean. Their posts this cycle are not making me feel any better about them. They mostly seem like they want to be involved but not really committing anything. Like suggesting someone look at a stick/detess team but not really putting in any effort to look into that team themselves, and them making a PM with stick just feels a little off given that they were around for turnover, but that would make me lean more mobborn on them, if anything (if 'making a PM' is code for conversion, they'd know stick survives the tie as the conversion happens before the tie is resolved). edit: If there seems to be a consensus that alpha is new enough they should be left alone for another cycle I'll probably move my vote to stick, but this is where my suspicion lies right now.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember it being said this was their fourth game by now? Also, some of the things that flagged me as suspicious (such as their push on Aman C1) where things that seemed unlike the kind of thing I'd expect a new player to do. Or to put it another way, the things that looked like new player confusion to me were not the things that made me suspicious of them, so I don't think it factors in my decision unless there is some reason in their game history why it would be better to avoid executing them quite yet.

Okay, so with JNV and alpha put back in the main group of suspects I am reevaluating my vote on Silho. When I believed that between stick and Silho at least one had to be evil and with stick potentially being able to reinforce the believability of their roleclaim next cycle, and in the process proving they shouldn't be in that group of suspects executing silho was the obvious way to go, even if my read on them was dead neutral, as the worst thing could happen was that they proved to be innocent so we could be 100% certain on e!stick afterwards. However, as that is no longer true I am moving my vote to alpha. Between stick, alpha, Silho and JNV, Silho and JNV are dead neutral due to the playstyle of the former and quietness of the latter, and between alpha and stick I am more suspicious of Alpha, especially as stick ahs a way to potentially alleviate suspicion next cycle. IF that falls through though I'll probably push for stick then.

Wait, is that true? In that case JNV and alpha are back in the main pool of suspects.

Okay, so getting back to that analysis I promised. I looked over Silho first and my opinion on them hasn't really shifted. Theirs is a posting style that any alignment could hide behind, but is definitely less helpful as a villager. In theory dead neutral, but that is more for a lack of stuff that is alignment indicative on its own, which I find suspicious. As for stick, I am still unsure on. They feel a bit too defensive when people suspect them, which makes me lean elim, but otherwise they do seem focused on solving the game, even if they are tunneling on me. I also do agree that the whole faking a seeker thing would be a long shot, though I don't consider it impossible. I think there might be a way to get a better read on stick. @_Stick_as you argued that it would be very risky to fake seeker, I'd love to see the results of another seek next cycle, provided you survive till then. @Amanuensisfor that purpose it might be helpful to not roleblock stick. For now, I'll go with Silho I actually have less reasons to be suspicious of them than stick, but I think I should be able to have a better read on stick next cycle if they share another seeker scan and we know how silho flipped, while your particular playstyle makes it difficult for me to figure out what you're up to, and I'ma ffraid that won't change for the rest of the game. Now, as for potential tea-mates for Silho and stick if they are not e/e: Aman is very unlikely to be evil with stick, and I'm not really seeing them being evil with Silho right now either, though it's not impossible. I'm leaning village on Aman for the reasons I outlined earlier, and that hasn't changed. matrim is unlikely to be a team-mate of stick as they where around during the end of last cycle and kept their vote on stick, which would have been really risky if they where both elims. I can see them being a team-mate for shining as they low-key stated they saw them as village, while keeping a door open for reconsideration later. Alpha could be e!stick's team-mate. The PM thing would be easier to fake between team-mates and though alpha did put their vote on stick early they also removed it again and never did much to push that execution, so it could have been distancing. I'm not seeing much tying Silho to alpha at first glance, but nothing suggesting they can't be on the same team either. @JNV hasn't posted yet this cycle and only posted once last cycle, so there is no real evidence suggesting they could be team-mates with either of Silho or stick. So, if stick/silho aren't e/e, the most likely teams I'm seeing are stick/alpha or Silho/matrim.

I can take a punt at that (last post before I go to bed, so I won't respond to any arguments against untill tomorrow). You already claimed seeker in an attempt to escape the tie, which is a sensible claim (irrespective of it being false or true) as it's a fairly valuable role if it's held by the village, but I can see it being part of the elim comp as well. Since you claimed, someone was bound to ask you about the results of your action. If it was a false claim you'd have to come up with something anyway, so claiming to have scanned a team-mate who could inform you whether they had had any PM's or other disruptions (roleblock, redirect, etc.) would be safer than taking a blind guess.

This is mostly a bit of warm-up post for analysis I want to do tomorrow. Assuming that Amanuensis has been speaking the truth about their actions and the actions done unto them, and that there are only 2 elims: the following group contains at most 1 elim: Mat aman JNV Alpha The following group contains at least 1 elim Stick Silho DeTess (listing myself for completion's sake, but I won't be considering myself as part of this group going forward). So between stick and Silho, at least 1 of them is evil, and as I pointed out earlier about the votes, chances are decent that if one is evil, both of them are. Tomorrow, I'll spend some time looking through stick's and silho's posts in depth and try to figure out which of them I'd prefer executing first. If I have time, I'll also look through the other 4 to see which of them I'd suspect most as stick or silho's team-mate if the other one flips village or mobborn.

Did you confirm you'd be told the difference between roleblocking someone not taking an action and roleblocking someone that did?

I'd seen you claim seeker at the end of last cycle, so I thought it was related to that... but on a reread of your first post you actually claimed to have looked at Silho, so that was my bad. I'll do some more people analysis tomorrow and mention who I think are most likely to be elims then. You + Silho does fit the little bit of available evidence we have so far, but I'll try to keep an open mind.

I suppose. I had a different idea in mind for why stick might have been claiming that they knew that, which is why I refrained from guessing as I wanted to see their reason. Though if JNV and alpha both made pm's, if we assume a two-player elim team they can't both be elims.

How do you know that? Why did you make a PM with someone that would seemingly have a 50/50 chance of dying?

I voted on Alpha over you because: 1. I was more suspicious of them than you 2. by the time I went to bed, there where, as far as I can tell, no serious signs there where significantly better chances of lynching you over them.

... What in Damnation was that mess at the end of the cycle? Okay, so looking at the movements, I think the mess started here: VC: Stick(2): Mat, Archer Aman(2): Alpha, Silho Archer(2): Stick, Araris Alpha(2): DeTess, Aman when Aman created a four-way tie. Next was archer swapping to Araris from stick, removing stick from the tie: VC: Stick(1): Mat, Archer Aman(2): Alpha, Silho Archer(2): Stick, Araris Alpha(2): DeTess, Aman Araris(1): Archer after that came Amanuensis, adding stick back to the tie and removing alpha: VC: Stick(2): Mat, Aman, Archer Aman(2): Alpha, Silho Archer(2): Stick, Araris Alpha(1): DeTess, Aman Araris(1): Archer Then came shining silhouette, removing Aman and brining Araris up to the tie: VC: Stick(2): Mat, Aman, Archer Aman(1): Alpha, Silho Archer(2): Stick, Araris Alpha(1): DeTess, Aman Araris(2): Archer, Silho Then Silho switched again, breaking the tie and putting archer in the lead. VC: Stick(2): Mat, Aman, Archer Aman(1): Alpha, Silho Archer(3): Stick, Araris, Silho Alpha(1): DeTess, Aman Araris(1): Archer, Silho The last move was Archer moving back to stick VC: Stick(3): Mat, Aman, Archer, Archer Aman(1): Alpha, Silho Archer(3): Stick, Araris, Silho Alpha(1): DeTess, Aman Araris(0): Archer, Silho The final exe landed on Archer, who was proven to be innocent. Some things of note: The kill against Araris was most likely submitted either before they came up for the lynch if none of the elims where around for turnover, or otherwise must have been submitted close to turnover after the vote on Araris dissipated. edit: this is pretty useless info now, but could be used to help narrow things down once an elim has been executed. Silho was the only one to actually completely break the tie. If at some point in the future they were to flip elim, stick would be worth looking into. If the mobborn was part of this tie at any point, they would not have been worried about that at all, given their immunity to going down on ties. Stick initially seems to fit that profile, but roleclaimed a moderately important role towards the end while in a situation where they couldn't break the tie themselves. That could be a village indicator, or an elim indicator, but I don't think they're the mobborn. Aman does fit the profile of a mobborn unaffraid of being in ties. There's probably more I can get from this later, for now I am feeling like if either stick or Silho flips elim, the other one should be looked at closely.

I think it was mainly the contrast that I saw between the Alpha from the posts before that one and the alpha I saw in that one. Before you seemed a little confused and just kinda bantering around. A little confusion I tend to see as a village tell as someone with trusted allies to coordinate with would generally not be confused in the thread, as they have others to throw questions at. But then you suddenly had a fairly focussed post where you seemed to be trying to push the lynch onto Aman. It's hard for me to figure out that sudden difference, and 'had a good chat with their allies tog et their head in the game' or 'suddenly saw an opportunity to execute a dangerous player' feels like a halfway decent explanation for that. For Aman, maybe things have changed in the past years, but when I played previously Aman felt like a fairly straightforward player. Smart and analysis minded, and quite capable of lying and concealing their motives, but not someone that would make 3-layers deep IKYK type plays, which si the only situation in which I could see e!Aman make comments like that.

So, I think enough has been said for me to comment on some players by now? I know less than half of the players playing here though, so I don't have any reads based on past playstyles or whatever. First of all, I feel like Aman is very likely village this cycle, and should be considered to be a mobborn starting next cycle (unless a mobborn dies to the kill this cycle). Aman asking to be converted Feels like a village thing because, unless something has changed in their playstyle in the years I was gone, it is so superfluous. If I was the mobborn I'd like to have a skilled analysis focused player like Aman on my side ASAP, so e!aman would realize there was little need to expose himself to added scrutiny if the mobborn where to die early on as a result of trying to convert an informer by making his desire to be converted so obvious. Reading through Alpha's posts my initial assessment was 'mildly confused newish player giving me a mild village vibe' until their last post. Though I disagree with the conclusions in their last post it shows someone quite willing to use their head, which goes contrary to the earlier impression I got and even makes me wonder if that might have been intentional to throw people off, or if at some point in the intervening time they had a good chat with the (other) members of the elim team in their doc. Current vibe is mild elim. I think Matrim's dice was just starting out when I stopped playing SE, but I don't remember much about their play style. Before I really give an initial read on them there's question I'd like answered. @Matrim's Dice, you said earlier that you considered asking to be recruited to be a serious elim tell. Yet you put Aman, who was most active in that regard in the middle of the pack when you gave your reads. Can you explain your read on Aman more? Archer seems to have no trouble sharing reads on other players so that makes me read mildly village on them, but once some of those people they interacted with flip I'll definitely take another look. team composition speculation is one of those things that looks good but is ultimately really NAI though, so that brings them a bit closer to Neutral for me. stick... I'm unsure off. Some of their posts read pretty village, with how they're teasing out interaction and reads from other people with their banter. However, some stuff, like their interpretation of the bit by Archer that I was confused on don't sit well with me (that particular interpretation seemed to be throwing suspicion at archer in an indirect way). Confusion at the way the kill redirect worked could go either way, but feels slightly more elimmy to me, as it's the kind of thing one might fake to try and look village. Overall read is neutralish, leaning slight elim. Shining Silhouette I am unsure on. They've posted a lot, yet just about all of it was pretty NAI. Some banter, but very little that actually means anything or seemed intended to get someone to talk more. We had a short interaction but they didn't really get stuck in. @Shining Silhouette could you give me a read on a couple people? For example, why did you swap your vote to Araris? For now it's a dead neutral read, but if they continue to play in such a noncommittal way I'll be down to execute them sooner rather than later. I've got very little on Araris, mostly because the only person they really seemed to comment on was me, and the rest seemed ot be mostly banter. @Araris Valerianare there any other people you have opinions on. For JNV, their one post was pretty NAI, so I guess they're on the same pile as Silhouette. Dead Neutral, but I really hope to see more from them sooner rather than later. @JNV Do you have any other opinions you want to share? For now my vote is on TheAlpha929.

Isn't there though? Untill we actually lynch a non-villager the markers might look similar (defending people without clear reason and other markers of knowing people's alignment), but as soon as an elim or mobborn gets lynched seeing the difference should become quite possible. Edit: Though you're right I am not really strategizing. As I said in my first post I'm really just trying to wrap my head around the impact the mobborn have on this game.

That's true, but if I had a set of analysis that pointed to one player likely being mobborn, and another set that points to another player being somewhat likely to be an elim, the second would take priority, in my mind, even if I'm less certain.