DeTess

So two notes on that: First of all, I don't deal with heat well, so the last 5 days or so for me have been really bad. Mostly sapped me of energy which has reduced my ability to post meaningful stuff. Especially high-effort content like trying to narrow stuff down based on actions or comprehensive reads list won't be a thing untill I've cooled down some. second of all (and this is self-meta analysis, so take it with am (un)healthy dose of salt until I've flipped, and even then take it with a grain of salt), I generally just tend to try to throw analysis and ideas and suspicions at the thread and leave it to everyone else do decide how much merit it has. I don't really try to drag people along with my suspicions much, and my village rallying skills are pretty much limited to reminding people to vote once in a while. All that out of the way, I want to take a look at general vote participation these last couple cycles. I'm only looked at the Day end report, sorry fi I missed a vote somewhere along the line that got retracted, and skipping over everyone already dead. D1 non-voters (turnout 57%): Kasimir JNV The Last Fæ DrakeMarshall STINK Drake Inferno Channelknight Fadran Turtle D2 non-voters (turnout 40%): The bald brandon The Wandering Wizard Fifth Scholar Szeth_Pancake Archer JNV The Last Fæ DrakeMarshall STINK Drake Inferno Channelknight Fadran Turtle D3 non-voters (turnout 65%): JNV The Last Fæ DrakeMarshall STINK Drake Inferno / Walin Channelknight Fadran Turtle So, looking at the above, the following players haven't voted yet at all: @JNV, @The Last Fæ, @DrakeMarshall, @STINK, @Walin, @Channelknight Fadran and @Turtle. Of these, only OG!Drake and turtle have been consistently active. So for the two of you, a simple question: why have you been refraining from voting? For the remainder, could you just give me your thoughts on one or two players currently in the game? You really don't need to fully understand the rules to look at players being sketchy, so there is really no excuse to fall silent at this point. Also, please vote next cycle. Even if it is just one post stating your vote and the tiniest sliver of reasoning, or even just sheeping someone you trust, it'll be better than nothing. I really hope to see at least an 80% voter turnout next cycle, because if we can't manage anything near that at this point in the game the village might as well pack up and go home.

@|TJ|, last read on szeth was slight village for pointing out the full elim teams can break out shards, which I think the elims would rather have us ignore untill it is too late. Haven't really seen anything since then to pull me one way or another.

I doubt I'll have the energy for that anytime soon, but just in case, could you link me two games of yours, one village, one elim (without telling me which is which)?

Sorry for my (relatively speaking) low amount of effort these last couple of days. The weather here has suddenly gotten quite hot (by local standards at least), and I really don't do well with the heat. Temperatures are coming down, but it might still be a day or two before I can string more than 2-3 coherent thoughts together. So, anyway, some suspicion swirls around Xino and araris mostly at this point I think? Let me reread them to form some reads of my own there. Araris has mostly not been that active, which makes it hard to form a read on them. Two things stand out to me: The comment that it is more of a faction game is something I'm not entirely sure is coming form a village perspective. To the village, all the other factions are elims. Only to Hoid and Khris' groups does the faction aspect really come into play, so someone involved with either would be more likely to see it as a faction game. This is something that leapt out to me, though I have hard time putting the figure on why this drew my attention. Maybe it's the whole 'don't feel my presence is vital enough to my team this game to make it worth fighting' feeling like an indirect admission that Araris is not on the 17th shard's side? At least, the 17th shard hasn't felt like anything approaching a team so far to me. Conclusion: yes, I would be up to execute Araris. The other one that seems to be accruing some attention is Xino. So there's only been about two game-posts by Xino. One was a big wall of text discussing game mechanics N0, which is pretty NAI, but forms a marked contrast with Xino's lack of activity later, while the other was a vote on alpha they claimed was for self-preservation reasons. And that's it. I don't really have feelings one way or another on Xino. Won't mind if they get executed, but don't feel like I should put my vote down there. @xinoehp512, you still with us? Now, to get back to Araris, do I feel worse about them than I do about Archer or TBB? I don't really know. Don't really like Archer's assessment that all the talkative people are likely village, because I have a hard time believing that that is true, and it feels more like an attempt to appease those that might try to execute Archer. But at this point I also might be tunneling on them. Meanwhile TBB feels like they're saying too little for the amount of posts they're making if that makes sense? Liker they're trying to lay low while not appearing to lay low. But at this point I'm too drained to do a proper read-through of all their posts again. Anyway, I think I feel fine putting a vote on Araris for now.

Actually, timing-wise it perfectly matches up with an elim team knowing they'll be 4-strong as of today, as it gives just enough time for their member to travel back from Braize to silverlight to join in on a coordinated breakout. I also don't really see Drake being a village shot. I might be wrong, but I haven't seen much suspicion pointed at them. So sure, Drake isn't read as village, but I don't think they're being elm-read much either. And if the elim just wanted to thin the numbers a little it is a safer shot than going after someone more consistently village-read as they are more likely to have some form of protection. That's not to say that I'm convinced it had to have been an elim, but I'm also not convinced it is safe to write away as a village shot.

Why assume the theorethical Braize shooter is village instead of a member of one of the evil factions?

@Kasimir, was Drodium on Scadrial with you?

@AshbringerSo, question. Odium and Ruin kills bypass vessel shields when the target is a vessel. What happens if they attack someone that is not a vessel but got vessel shield some other way, such as through preservation investiture?

To save everyone some speculation, I started with an Odium charge and used it to shoot the avatar.

@Szeth_Pancakeshow many games does it take for NPW to stop being a valid excuse? As you said, Alpha is on their sixth game now, and I personally think that's well beyond the new player grace period, but maybe that's just me.

You did realize Mat wasn't actually in favor of moving the vote on you, right? And the whole thing was triggered by Kasimir stating he didn't really like choosing between the two active wagons, which triggered my post to open up the possibility of moving elsewhere. This honestly feels less like a villager annoyed they almost got hammered, and more like an elim using some last-minute discussion to throw suspicion around. The villager would have looked at what actually went down in more detail before picking targets...

@Kasimir The way they engaged with me N0 reminded me a lot of their last LG with how they came in with questions that seemed to be intended to start creating suspicion but then immediately backed off again once I answered. Apart form that most of their interactions haven't flipped too far one way or another, but that first thing stuck in my mind as that same action also made me suspicious last LG. I've been gone for a long while so don't have a longer meta-view on them to see if that was actually a tell or not. Anyway, I think the two shards we should probably aim to get out of the slammer this night are honor to serve as a counterweight on case Odium goes rogue, and Dominion to give people the ability to self-protect. Any others that would be useful right now? I think we should settle on a set of no more than three if we actually want to have decent chances of breaking them out.

I don't really have any particular feelings on Xino, so not really...

With just the two of us it would be another tie so we'd need one more. Not sure if that is possible at this point, but wanted to throw up the ball. I'm fine with either Alpha or Archer (or TBB).

@KasimirI'm up for swapping my vote to Archer instead if you want to try to get that train rolling last minute.

The heat is really draining energy from me right now, so I'm going to be a bit low on content until it cools down sometime middle of next week. Some reads: Kasimir is probably village. He wouldn't have anywhere near as much trouble maintaining his initial approach to the game if he was an elim. Matrim is giving me a village vibe, or at least a significantly different vibe from his recent elim game. Still leaning elim on Archer, and also not feeling good about TBB. Alpha is still impossible to read, and I've seen them have some pretty sharp observations as village, so leaning elim (likely convert, since their action claim means they probably didn't convert anyone N0) on them at this point as well. You don't need a perfect grasp of what every shard, world and piece of investiture can do to form reads on people. I know I don't have that kind of grasp of the rules yet. Not sure how to feel about Szeth, but leaning a bit village. I actually really like their point about the elims reaching four-player teams next night if none get executed today or tomorrow giving them the ability to get shards out of containment on their own, and being a reason for the village to try to get as many shards out of containment as possible before then. I'm not sure where the heat on Turtle is coming from. People were complaining about their initial reads list, but given when they tried to assemble it I am not surprised it ended up having a lot of nulls. Apart from that they haven't said much of note. I don't lean village on them either, I'm just not seeing much in the way of elim tells.

That claim doesn't rule out them being Bavadin, or a convert. A significant part of my vote on them is that I just want them to start taking part more, as it'll be impossible to get any sort of read on them otherwise, and they're not really contributing to the village, so might as well be a neutral/elim. If Sart had not just gotten killed I might have gone after them to start with in the same way as well. Or to put it another way, I suppose based on what happened last game I'm willing to revive the idea of a contribution crusade in the opening act of this one.

I'll help you with survival if you help me with ambition?

Factions don't have kills iirc. Ruin does, as does Odium and Odium investiture on the chargeless. I'd reckon this kill was probably ruin, as Sart would have to be chargeless to die to Odium investiture (or they got multi-tapped). Alpha, so far you've contributed very little. Could you share some reads or other thoughts? @TheAlpha929 I'll try to post some more reads of my own, but it is getting very warm here for today and tomorrow which plays absolute havoc with my ability to concentrate, so chances are I'll play fairly loose this cycle still. @Kasimirjust wanted to point out that you didn't even make it out of N1 before posting a reads list

So, hypothetical scenario. What if it was some sort of omni-tie last cycle and you could have voted anyone to save yourself, who would it have been?

@The Bald Brandonwhy did you switch your vote to me at some point? And what was your reason for voting Archer? Just self preservation or was there more to it?

It's mostly the point that has been brought up a couple of times (not just by me) about how you seem to go on the defensive very quickly when you are an elim, even against joke votes or similar, and you're really not doing that this game as far as I can tell.

It's not impossible imho, but it feels like it would be too likely to backfire? Like, that claim risks getting counterclaimed in a number of ways, such as someone using endowment on Alpha tonight and finding they still have Investiture on them, or even just someone deciding to shoot Alpha with Odium to see if they are truly out of Investiture. edit: btw, Mat, if you are currently village (and I am somewhat leaning that way just based on vibes, despite any grudges I may or may not hold), then I really feel like there is a significant difference with last game. Of course, if you aren't then you're doing a pretty good job at suppressing what people seem to think are your tells.

@Archer I'm pretty much in agreement with TJ here. I also don't really like your vote on Alpha. I don't particularly like the posts Alpha has been making so far, but they feel like a low-hanging fruit pick, something someone might go after if they are desperate for any not-me alternative, rather than actually trying to find a good suspect (especially since you didn't actually share any reasons for your suspicion). That having been said, Alpha's claim about having used their one charge of Investiture is very interesting. If true, it means they're vey vulnerable to getting shot with Odium's investiture the coming night, so it makes me question why they'd admit that. However, if what they said is true ( @DrakeMarshall, can you weigh in on that claim) it's highly unlikely they are Hoid or Khriss as those had better things to do last night. Autonomy can't be ruled out though. There is a very easy way to test if Alpha was lying or not without resorting to spending an execution on them though. *** It had taken a bit of sneaking around, but eventually Tessa found herself where once Ruin's containment container had been. A tiny bit of sabotage on a fire alarm meant that she'd be left alone here for at least the next five minutes. "Vahal, pay attention." She got out her deck of cards, fished out the knight of staves and put it in front of her, upside down, then tapped Fortune and started shuffling. "I'm at the location of Ruin's former container, just in case that matters." Tessa finished shuffling the deck, then started revealing the cards one by one. "First is five of staves, reversed. Ruin's vessel is surrounded by trickery and lied. They are also taking advantage of an ongoing dispute... whoever took Ruin is unlikely to be planning to put it back. Freeing that Shard might have even been their intention from the start, rather than an unfortunate side effect of their research." "After that is page of wands, also reversed. Ruin's new vessel is grappling with its intent, and this is reducing their ability to act." Tessa looked up from her cards suddenly, as she heard a sound deeper in the room. Several moments passed with no further sounds or movement, and the researcher turned her sights back on the cards. "Five of swords, Ruin is aiming for destruction. What else is new." "The fourth card is the two of staves. Ruin has all the power of a Shard to work with, so this is no surprise. The fifth card is the knight of cups. Hmmm..." Tessa took a moment to consider. "This one has a lot of interpretations, but given the situation... Ruin's new vessel either had an accomplice, or only recently arrived in Silverlight after hearing news of the situation. Last situation card before the actual divination is the moon. The coming days will be influenced by chaos and danger. Whimsy might come to play an important role here." She took a deep breath before starting on the final four cards. All that had come before had been the setup, setting the stage. These last four, and in particular the final one should contain an actual clue to what was to come. "First, Justice. Ruin believe he is acting in a righteous manner. Next is the hanged man, reversed. He is forced to act by the selfishness of the crowd. He has been let down by the masses lack of wisdom. Next is nine of cups. Hope for success, no surprises there. The final card is page of coins, reversed." Tessa frowned. "That's not a clear one, but given the context... Ruin's new vessel will fall to the Shard's intent, probably fairly quickly too. Their preparations will come to naught and they'll simply drown in Ruin's power." She was quiet for a moment. "Vahal, be careful basing any actions on this reading. That last card was very ambiguous. It doesn't portent anything good for the vessel, but beyond that... Well, we're in for a rough time if Ruin is about to be unleashed in all its destructive glory."

Kas, I give you at most two more cycles before you accidentally post an entire reads list before you remember you weren't going to