DeTess

So, @Araris Valerian, just to confirm... You believe the elims could puppet JNV's actions, or that wizard (edit:meant raven, keep confusing their names) and/or me decided to bus wizard when V!araris was an alternative?

As far as we know right now, only Mat's role cared about it.

So the following has been said regarding roleclaims: Aeoryi claimed Thug, which in addition to the standard extra life can change one name on the list from red to green or the other way around. TKN claimed Soother which can either remove one vote, or add a vote to someone while removing the soothers vote. Araris claimed tin-eye, which keeps the PM's open. I claimed... some complicated BS meant to mask the fact that I'm a lurcher, except anyone who targets the one I lurch gets roleblocked. I can't target the same person twice in a row, which is why I came up with some complicated BS when I claimed C2 to explain the lack of NK as I didn't want to get hit again while I couldn't self-protect. Regarding the list, apart from manipulation by thugs it also colors the name of the person with the second-most votes red.

Doing some analysis on wizard's actions so far. Feel pretty confident that TKN is village given how wizard sniped that vote in to tie them. Plus, you know, the whole 'elims probably don't have double vote manip in a game this size'. There is the vote on Araris that feels like it should preclude them working together, except they knew they would be losing that vote again when doing their manip to stink, so that could have been distancing as well. Also there was this post by Araris: which kinda feels like Araris trying to protect wizard before a train could gains team (only archer had voted wizard at that point). so yeah, feeling confident about an Araris vote at this point And that's it pretty much. Wizard had an early interaction with Mat, but Mat is already dead so that's a dead end as well. Looking at the votes last cycle, Aeoryi and raven also look good. Like, the only way those votes cold be suspicious is if Araris was also an elim and the elism were forced to bus, but I don't think there were three elims. So excluding Araris (who is my top suspect, this si really just analysis for the case in which he flips village) the only real suspect left is JNV, which I don't like (only makes sense if JNV could be puppeted, or the elims could both do their role action and the elim kill at the same time). Honestly, this reinforces the idea that it has to be Araris more than anything.

Pretty sure their claim was sarcasm. I do feel araris and wizard are too connected so we need to exe Araris, but I'll also be looking for alternatives in case it wasn't Araris after all. And yeah, I know how soother was explained by TKN, but I want to know who soothed where this cycle in case there are anh oddities there.

@The Known Novel, did you use your role? Trying to track down what happened to the vot here. My theory is you adding a vote to me as a demonstration of how the ability works and wizard adding one to Araris to try to tie things up. Is that correct or did wizard just randomly slap a vote on me?

Okay, so if I understand it correctly, there are two options now: Wizard was the one moving the vote, and is lying about it, and therefore likely evil. TKN was the one that moved the votes and is lying about ti, there fore likely evil. Well, that seems simple enough to resolve then. Don't trust either of them, but trust Wizard less.

If their vote doesn't get cancelled by their ability, they can, yes. it generally doesn't matter too much whose vote they move, as in practice they just take 1 from the total on one vote train and add it to another. Edit also, I might be missing something (don't think I read that Tyrian game), but wasn't TKN already confirmed a soother? They used their action C1 and even if you can riot a vote into a no vote their vote didn't disappear.

If it works like that then I'd agree, but then the only ones that could be the rioter are the ones that didn't vote. That would be: JNV, except they haven't been on the shard since the 17th, so can't have submitted the action. STINK, except we know they're a soother TKN, except we know they're a soother so this means the role can't work that way, and there have been plenty of other variations on the rioter role (iirc, back when I started rioter roles just straight up moved votes without cancelling your own).

Okay, so here's some analysis based on the vote manipulation that happened this cycle. Unlike the soothing power that TKN claimed and STINK had, this time a vote was moved from Araris to STINK. For now I'll refer to this as the 'rioter' role. That would eb the third vote manip role in this game in addition to STINK and TKN, and I somehow doubt that all three were in the village's hands, so either TKN or the mystery rioter is likely to eb an elim, and I'm leaning more towards the rioter right now. So, who is likely to be the rioter, based on PM's including some fairly solid looking proof I think I can narrow ti down to the following three people: Araris Wizard Raven Araris claimed tin-eye, and it does look believeable, so I'm inclined to drop them from the list as well, leaving wizard and Raven. Raven outright denied having the role though, while it would be odd for Wizard to move a vote like that when they were on the other train. Wizard might have been an e!rioter and acted the way he did to try and either hide his protection of e!araris, but risking a 50/50 not going their way, or he might have just done it to cause confusion. Meanwhile, raven might be the e!rioter either trying to protect e!araris, or making it appear that someone was trying to protect v!araris to increase the chance of the village spending another execution there. In either case, it would be better to hide their role to prevent them from being tied to the situation. Anyway, I think it might be a good idea to take another close look at these two, but in particular Raven looks suspicious, as their motives as an e!rioter make more sense than those of wizard.

Okay, I think I'm closing in on something useful, but I want to get rid of a couple edge cases before I reveal my theory. @The Known Novel C2 it seemed like you claimed Soother. Did you have anything to do with the vote manipulation this cycle? @ExperienceI'm not sure if you answered this already: are roles revealed for those that die, or only their alignment?

@Ravenclawjedi42, just to confirm, since you asked Araris whether they moved the vote you are claiming to not have done so, correct?

Could you tell me what a tineye does?

@STINKIf you had to vote right now, who would you vote? Given the size of the game we're probably past the first third already, so this is no time to be sticking on the sidelines. Same to @JNV. I know you like to play with PM's, but it's pointless to do so fi you don't at least check into the main thread once in a while. Speaking of PM's, Archer has told me some things that make me less eager to see Mat executed this cycle, though I might return to it next cycle depending on what happens towards the end of this one. Moving my vote to Araris

Wait, I did? Ah, I used the people in the spoiler tag of the opening post and missed them because they where outside it. let me see... D1 looked village to me until the end. They had that new player vibe with some indications they were trying to reason through things by themselves, which suggests they probably don't have a doc with an active coconspirator. I don't like how they then went with the trends for the votes at day's end without really using their own reasoning, which suggests they are trying to disappear in the crowd so to speek. D2 they've been fairly defensive after Mat put some suspicion on them and haven't really been pushing their own suspicions. Overall read is neutral but trending towards an elim lean more than a village lean at the moment. edit: regarding what Mat said, it is generally true and I've used action tracking to try and pinpoint elims in other games, but unless it is confirmed for this game it is a dangerous assumption to make.

My reasoning on all my reads is in this post: Regarding the kill, I don't think we know. There is no universal 'one action per person' rule, so unless @Experienceconfirms whether submitting an elim kill means the one that submits it can't do another action we don't know.

Currently my main suspects are Mat, Araris and Stink, Stink mostly because they've been around long enough to do more than what they've been doing so far.

Yeah, that was definitely a late-game thing, though going by that logic Stink did land in my leaning elim stack, mostly because I expected a little more from them.

Really? Anyway, just for the record, I'm not saying 'ignore them entirely', I'm just curious what made Aeoryi think it was more likely there was an elim among those two. edit: Also, I don't like those PAFO's at all XD

Did you see my claim regarding my role? If I did stop the kill that way it wouldn't show up in the writeup, so that's an alternative to the entire elim team being inactive.

That was kinda my point. If there is nothing alignment indicative about them, then why suspect one of the elims is among them, when from a purely statistical point of view, it's more likely they aren't?

It's not impossible, but may I ask why you think so? If we assume two elims than from a pure statistics standpoint it's more likely they are among the remaining 8 players. Though I very much agree I want to hear more from both.

I agree, I can kinda see that move going both ways really. I'm up for an Araris execution as well, just feel putting some pressure on Mat might be more productive at this point in the cycle.

It doesn't seem to be the case anymore. And as the core mechanic of it would make for a pretty interesting blackout game as long as it remains secret, I will not say more about it. @ExperienceTwo thing I wanted to check. will the game immediately end if the village achieves its win-con? Do the red names in the list count for our win-con? Just a bit paranoid here that we might be facing a game where, to win, we need to go a cycle without voting, thereby clearing all 'infiltrators' from the list. It's not something I really want to test yet though, beyond asking the questions up there.

quick and dirty reads list Solid village: no one. mild village: Aeoryi. Effort always looks good in my opinion. It is pretty clear that they have some experience with these kinds of games, despite being new to SE. I'd like to think their elim playstyle would be a bit more subdued as what they are doing now seems to be the opposite of hiding. Not completely convinced on them yet, but I don't want to execute them anytime soon. Archer. I am not getting the elim vibes I was getting from them in earlier games,a dn they seems to eb actively working to solve the game, which looks good in my book. Not 100% convince on them yet, but like Aeoryi I don't want to execute them right now. neutral: TKN. Gut says they're evil, but I can't deny their response when I pressed them on their win-con with the implication the village win-con was not to simply kill all the infiltrators was pretty village looking. There where enough red flags that I can't put them any higher just yet. wizard: don't like the way they sniped in the tie without any real explanation, but that would only have really looked off if Lab had been evil (though an elim trying to snipe a v!TKN while they were still under suspicion is also a possibility). Don't know enough about their play style to judge how normal their current engagement is. @JNV hasn't posted yet. JNV, you with us? elim leaning: Mat: mostly gut here. They felt like they were keeping to the sidelines a bit too much until right at the end of C1. The way he switched votes at the end there might just have been to push engagement as he claimed, but if so, why wait so long to get his initial vote in. Also don't like the way he brought in the lab vote for much the same reason I disliked the archer votes, but at least focussing the mechanic kill on the less present player looks slightly better. Overall seems to have been keeping tot he sidelinbes of D1 too much, which looks off to me. Araris: elim leaning for the same reason as I am somewhat suspicious of TKN, but with fewer redeeming factors. Asking for the roleblocker claim is noteworthy as my ability roleblocks, and normally roleblocking is a targeted ability. In other words, a traditional roleblocker would have been able to pinpoint who submitted the kill if they had blocked the kill, so e!araris asking for the claim while thinking it would be right on the money would be a bit odd. But an elim would know that claim was probably nearly inevitable, so eh, maybe mare NAI? Stink: mostly on here because they are present but haven't really said anything of note yet, nor have they voted. @STINK, any thoughts? Some other comments: I highly doubt TKN and wizard are on the same team together. Likewise, Archer can't really be evil with either TKN or Araris. Not enough connections like this to really do anything with right now, but it's something I wanted to put down nonetheless For now I'm putting a vote down on mat.