DeTess

Welp, I was right you got the offer at least XD. I became kinda convinced you'd joined team autonomy after my sudden death. The start of another age of Autonomy indeed. I'd complain about inactivity, but honestly, I'm pretty sure there were enough votes cast to have just executed Drake the moment he started openwolfing, so this loss can't be blamed on inactivity. Overall, a good play by Drake and TBB. Also, I want it on record that both teams actively chose not to convert me, so next time I'm in a conversion game the villagers should keep that in mind. And the elims should remember I'm a great low-profile conversion target

Beyond this PoE not yet. I intend to take a look at Stink and Araris tomorrow to decide who to go after.

Okay, so, Elandera was with Khriss. Give me a moment to figure out wtf went down D4 then. So the final vote-count was Archer (6): The Bald Brandon, Kasimir, Szeth_Pancakes, |TJ|, DeTess, Matrim's Dice The Bald Brandon (1): Archer But at an earlier point it was something like: Archer (5): The Bald Brandon, Kasimir, Szeth_Pancakes, |TJ|, DeTess Wizard (3): Archer, Matrim's dice, Elandera note: the following people did not vote but were active in the thread: Drakemarshall, JNV, Wizard, turtle, Fae So in theory with 3 more votes, Hoid's team should have been able to make that 6-5 in Archer's favor, or even worse if any Hoidites were voting Archer. Of course, you could argue (correctly) that a dog-pile like that would look mightily suspicious, but it still stands out that no member of Hoid's team tried to save Archer. Some possible explanations: Hoid's faction thought Archer was unsaveable In this case, hoid's faction just assumed Archer could not be saved from the execution and let him go. In this case there might have been some bussing, but I don't think more than one Hoid faction member Voted Archer, because any more and it would have been trivially easy to dissolve the Archer wagon without having to go all in on voting wizard. I'd say in this scenario at most one of <The Bald Brandon, Kasimir, Szeth_Pancakes, |TJ|, DeTess> was with Hoid's faction, and quite possibly none. However, this would also mean that the remaining hoidites would be among the less active/inactive players, so the group of <STINK, walin, Fadran, Araris, Fae, turtle>. More on them later Wizard was also in the Hoid faction In that case, the Hoid faction was literally stuck between a rock and a hard place and due to the suspicion on Archer might have decided letting Archer die was the lesser of two evils, especially because it could give them a way to then push Mat and Elandera as suspects for the counterwagon. It has the downside of sacrificing a vocal player for one that is mostly inactive though, and if they had successfully flipped the wagon onto e!wizard it could have been used to take heat off of Archer and even put suspicion on those who voted him. If wizard wasn't just in the Hoid faction but actually Hoid, it would make more sense to preserve wizard over Archer. In this scenario more hoidites might have been voting Archer than in the previous one as suddenly the Hoid faction isn't just uninterested in Saving Archer but actively wants to bus him to protect wizard. However, I would also expect Wizard to be voting in self defense on Archer. the Hoid faction is very inactive In this scenario the Hoid faction simply didn't have the number of active players required to do anything to save Archer. This could be either because Hoid himself was barely active and did not have a full pool of recruits, or because the people recruited by Hoid went inactive, or some mix of the two. In this case once again I don't think more than one Hoidite was bussing Archer, because any more and the Hoid faction should have had the numbers to turn things around. In addition, it would constrain the pool of players that the remaining hoidites could reasonably be in to: <STINK, walin, Fadran, Araris, Fae, turtle>. The ones in italics are people I think are pretty unlikely to have been recruited due to lack of activity so would have to be Hoid or Village, so it would be more like one or more in <STINK, Araris, turtle> and at most one in <walin, fadran, fae>. In conclusion, the first and last scenario are actually pretty much identical as far as likely groups to hold the remaining Hoidites, and I think these two are the more likely ones, though Wizard can't be cleared of being a Hoidite just because they were the Archer CW because the wagon was made up of members of Khriss' faction. Furthermore, I'd probably be most willing to execute one of STINK or Araris next cycle. The <STINK, Araris, turtle> is potentially the most Hoidite dense, and turtle might just die to inactivity so isn't up to consideration for me right now.

Just for the record, you tried to target drake with prudence investiture and the action failed? Assuming you were on Silverlight the only possible causes I can think of are being roleblocked by ruin's investiture or an autonomy avatar. When exactly did you try to make this PM?

Alright, back to Elan we go. As for dealing with the inactives, I'd rather see Ruin/Odium shoot among them than us having to go out of our way to execute them, because it'll play havoc with activity at this point in time. But it's up to them whether they do us that favor or not.

@STINKJust for the record, do you have any charges of Autonomy's investiture? @KasimirI can see your point about Elandera probably not being Hoid, but at most a conversion. However, your focus on going after Hoid specifically seems contingent on winning through the village's sudden death, is that correct? If we could hit Hoid this cycle that'd be something we could definitely try, but the longer it takes to find Hoid specifically the more difficult things get for the village, not just through Autonomy's win-con, but also through the village losing numbers to the elim factions if we end up missing. Like, I'm willing to join you on Araris this cycle for that long shot, but if that's not a hit I'll be focusing on likely elims rather than trying to get one specific member of Hoid's faction. Also (and this question is for @DrakeMarshall and @The Bald Brandon too), since you are the only ones in contact with autonomy through the docs, how would you judge their activity level? Just trying to get my head around some more overall analysis about who might be who.

Elan: elim. Vote on Wizard last cycle was very sketchy,adnd they aligned with both Archer and Mat at times. Of course, those can't both be significant tells, but still makes them look worse in my eyes. TBB: Gut says they're a bit sketchy. I mentioned before that they were saying too little in too many posts and that feeling has not really dissipated. They also seem a bit less present at the 'front' of lynches than others. On the other hand, they do seem to be part of your inner circle, and I feel like if there was a mole in it some things would have gone differently (like their elim team going after invention as well to steal it away from you). Not impossible for them to be Autonomy, I guess. TJ: mild village lean, no real red flags, seems involved in solving things. If they're evil, most likely on Khriss team, but don't think they are Kas: solid village read, would have most likely stuck with their original game-plan if they were village and they really don't feel like they've been converted since then as they're still actively hunting both elim teams. Kinda difficult, given that I've just returned after a years long absence and LG94 and MR63 are my only recent games. Still games you could look at are: I haven't read through them in too much detail to confirm how representative they are, mostly checked my alignment and that I didn't die too early. edit: @DrakeMarshall, @JNV I don't suppose either of you would be willing to lend me your Shard so I can put Kas's suspicions to rest? Technically my kill of the avatar should have proven that already, but that could have been a team-mate of mine I suppose.

Okay, so, yesterday the only two real wagons where on Archer, who we now know was with Hoid's group, and on Wizard. The only people really backing the wizard wagon where Archer, Elan and Mat. Normally, you'd expect to find other hoidites here, which is what flagged Elan and Mat as suspicious. Except by now we know that at least Mat was not on Hoid's team, but instead was Khriss. One of the questions that is then put forward is 'where is the rest of Archer's team in all this?'. I want to execute Elandera to have a better look at that. If she is part of Hoid's team then that is one thing, and along the lines of what you'd expect in that situation. However, if she is not part of Hodi's team, but instead with Khriss (as the entanglement with Mat suggests) or village, it brings up some real questions, such as 'why didn't Hoid's team back up Archer there'? Reasons could include Wizard also being on Hoid's team, or Hoid's team being almost completely inactive. Either way, before I even start speculating on that I want to know what team Elandera was on. I do see your point about Hoid being a higher priority here than another person on Khriss team, but I'd argue at this point Elandera is key to working on that. Either she is also on Hoid's team (or Hoid themselves) which means executing her brings us closer to Hoid, or she is not on Hoid's team, which means we can probably dig into the question of 'why did team hoid do nothing to save Archer'.

Yeah, that stood out to me while doing a reread of Mat. He village read Fadran quite strongly, in part for reading the game as a faction-game, which Mat also did. It might just have been an indirect defence of himself, but I feel like Mat must have had some more info to make that read given the possibility of hoid!fadran. Other things I noted were that Mat was consistently hard village-reading Szeth and I'm not sure Szeth warranted quite that strong a read. But ti also feels way too obvious if they were team-mates. Mat went after Araris here: at a point were Araris was leading or close to leading the execution, so I think it is highly unlikely Mat and Araris are on the same team. There was also some shade at Walin here: Just noting that as it makes a walin + mat team less likely in my eyes (not that it was particularly likely to begin with). Lastly, there was a soft defense of Elandera here: Given their coordination over the counterwagon it makes me wonder a little if they are team-mates. Either way I want to execute Elandera this cycle. I want clarity one what was behind the wizard wagon. If it was for example a push from team!Khriss for some reason it means wizard can't be ruled out from being on team Hoid (and would explain why there wasn't as much animo for the counterwagon as it wasn't in team hoid's favor either).

Okay, I've got to know. @Kasimir, @The Bald Brandon, @DrakeMarshall, was the kill on Mat something drake just came up with on his own, or did I just witness Mat getting led like a sheep to the slaughter by your combined manipulation in the thread? I mean, good job either way, but if it was you all tag-teaming mat: yikes, that was brutal XD

@Kasimirhow would using Devotion to fix votes work? Just to replenish relevant charges on invention to use vote manip abilities? Edit: I meant Invention, of course. Was going for devotion myself with the same idea of fixing village votes.

To be honest, thinking about it all a little more objectively, I agree it's closer to a proper toss-up between who to execute first. I just really wanted my righteous revenge on e!mat, which made me indicate my preference there.

So, my Mat village lean was mostly due to a combination of non!e!mat start+ effort +no real red flags as far as I could see. But I consider joining the wizard wagon here a major red flag, which caused my turnaround.

Okay, looking at yesterday, I feel confident TJ wasn't part of team Hoid, but could still be team Khriss (no real suspicion for that, just something that can't be ruled out). Same goes for Szeth and TBB. Elandera starting up a CW definitely looks sketchy, but the comment about being roleblocked by Archer would suggest they aren't on the same team. Of course, why would team!hoid!archer be roleblocking someone instead of going after shards? So might be on the same team and that whole interaction was faked. Mat's move onto Wizard feels more like a move form archer's team-mate, as it comes with packaged in distancing as Mat kinda waffles back and forth on Archer without ever really stating they think Archer is village before joining the wizard train. So I'd be up to execute both Elandera and Mat tomorrow, but I'd like to start with Mat and I'd really appreciate it if we could just get it done in a single cycle for a change? Also, voting turnout was a paltry 42% this cycle. So you know, to the 10 people that didn't vote, reminder that the game is still going on! You've been poked in the opening post for this thread already, so don't feel like @ing you again.

Okay, the reason I brought that up was that Elandera is really throwing me off right now. Something about their recent posts just feels too sure about Archer's innocence, and my first thought was that she seemed like an elim either desperately protecting a team-mate setting up to capitalize on a high-profile mislynch. That second option, however, wouldn't make sense this game as there are two elim teams that shouldn't know who the other is, so e1!elandera shouldn't be so against lynching non!e1!archer as they could be part of the other elim team. But if one (or both) teams actually have some idea of who the other team is it might make more sense. But then again, if that is the case, why aren't they pushing harder to get the other side executed? Anyway, those were the rambling thoughts I had this morning after reading through the thread. I've got some travelling to do today, so I'm not sure if I'll be around to post again before turnover.

@Ashbringerwhat exactly happens when both factions try to convert the same person? And what about if a faction tries to convert someone that was already converted? I assume it looks the same as trying to convert a shard? And would a failure like that look different from being roleblocked? I've been wondering about the apparent lack of full elim teams last cycle, but if the elims have been hitting the same people (and know they have been hitting the same people) that could explain it and also changes my look at how certain people have been playing.

Ah, right, that explains it.

Well, I thought you were since you said you could confirm that JNV spoke the truth. Then may I ask how you knew?

So you're saying you were on Braize at the time? May I ask why?

I guess, I can see what you're saying here? I just haven't played enough with Mat recently to know whether they usually driving the trains as a villager and the like so it's difficult for me to form a read based on that.

I'm not super suspicious of them. If anything I'm leaning a little village, maybe? Opening felt different from the e!mat I've seen before and Mat seems involved with trying to solve the game which is a good look in my opinion. Maybe how hard they village-read Szeth feels a bit off? I do village-read Szeth but not quite that hard and I'm not sure fi there is concrete reason to. Don't think that that's an E/E pair though (at least they won't be on the same team), but might be e!mat trying to gain village cred for trusting another villager. Overall Mat is nowhere near the top of my list of people I'd execute today though.

I don't know who Ruin is and what the communication with them has been so it's hard for me to judge how likely they are to remain village aligned (also, did we get any confirmation on whether shardic win-cons can be instant death?), but if they do remain roughly village aligned, things will indeed start to be thread focused. That having been said, there are ways for the elims to claw back some indirect killing power through whimsy (edit: or invention) by converting other charges to Odium.

Shards are intent converted after using their ability 3 times. Ruin must have used it at least twice to blow up Braize, and there was a kill early on that could very well have been theirs. If that kill is theirs Ruin is now Neutral with their own win-con. Regarding fifth, this being a conversion game actually makes it more difficult to get use out of their read. There was an interaction early on with Archer and Fadran that would suggest they where not on the same team then, but that was D1, so Fifth could still have been village then as well. Chances are better that when Fifth voted Turtle they had already been converted, and they were converted when they voted Araris. I'd say Araris is not on Khriss' faction, and turtle probably isn't either. @Kasimir, regarding Archer, I'm a bit of two minds on them still. I think it's unlikely they are autonomy at this point given some of their comments, but being anti-autonomy doesn't make it impossible for them to be on either of the other two elim factions. I know it ahs been speculated that those could ally with Autonomy, but just because they can doesn't mean they will, and with both kill shards out in the wild early they could actually be more worried than the village about Autonomy's instant win-con as they have fewer options for doing anything about it. Reading back a bit further there are some interactions with Fifth during the second and third cycle that might suggest they were aligned, with how they both went after Turtle and Archer village-reading fifth, but fifth later walked their vote back so it's far from solid evidence. Something that I did not like while reading back over stuff was Archer's call for a no-lynch until all conversions had happened. I can kinda see the logic behind that, but it's also a really good way to absolutely murder village engagement, and would put the village in a pretty bad spot given the relative sizes of the two elim teams. Sure, those would also fight eachother, but you'd still be looking at having to get 8 executions right. Overall, I'd still be up for executing Archer, but I'm also weary of tunneling on them, so I'll try to look over other options as well.

@DrakeMarshallwas that kill on fifth yours? It can't have neen ruins. Also, really odd that no shards breached containment. I fully expected the elims to at least hit mercy last night and did the same to try and steal it away from them, but nothing. I'll do some analysis on fifth later to see who looks like a potential team-mate. I'll also see if I can figure out who Ruin is, as they are probably pretty close to going rogue at this point.

I'm not so sure actually. Like Odium does protect you from conversion, but the siphoning happens after conversion so you could have been converted on either N0 or N1. Now, you claiming does not match with elim!odium, but it happened after you survived a kill which meant there was some expectation for you to explain how you survived, and lying could be more trouble than just stating the truth. Like, based on some of your other comments I lean village (definitely not someone trying to maintain a good relationship with autonomy at any rate), but refusing to get involved with the execution is not a good village look.