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DeTess

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Everything posted by DeTess

  1. DeTess
    If I was the WGG'd e!SE I wouldn't have gone insane because of the silver bones. I initially wanted to sit on that info for a bit, but I think there is no harm in mentioning at this point that I had a pallid mask.
  2. DeTess
    Putting my vote on JNV for now. They were in the four (now three) player PoE from yesterday and I think JNV and Ash are about equally suspicious now. I'm voting JNV because they are also tied up in an odd coincidence Kas told me about in our PM. Apparently Kas had been contacted by no less than two different writers, both of whom claimed to have made a PM between Kas and JNV on D1. Kas seemed to be a bit suspicious about that occurrence, but the only way I can see it being anything other than a coincidence is if JNV is an elim. In that case, one of the two claiming writer and that PM might either have been lying about being a writer, or might have created that PM as a way to get a team-mate in a position to influence Kas.
  3. DeTess
    So absed ont eh claims so far the count would be something like this: The Last Fae (5) - Matrim's Dice, Kasimir, TheAlpha929, |TJ| , TKN Illwei (0) - Araris Valerian, The Last Fae Ashbringer (1) - Illwei Araris Valerian (2) - Alvron, ? Both Araris and Fae also used, VITC, but one vote went MIA, probably the one by Araris, as I suspect Fae voted for Araris. @Araris Valerianwho did you try to move your vote to?
  4. DeTess
    @Alvronwere you the vote on araris or fae? @TheAlpha929, who else would you have voted?
  5. DeTess
    Getting back to the last two, starting with Illwei: Illwei seems to be trying to actively solve the game, which is always a good look. The mech portions seem to confuse them from time to time, but that also makes them look a bit ore village imho as as an elim they'd have a far better insight into what is actually going on making it easier to parse the mech. There are some things that look a bit off to me, such as them throwing some shade on the archer train, but overall read still leans village. So, looking at Ash's more recent post, I'm starting to feel a bit better about them. There is still some shady stuff, but also attempts to solve the game. I also like them outright stating that they feel it's a bad idea to outright trust Kas. I think that's an argument coming form a paranoid villager mindset, while an elim would want to avoid attracting that kind of attention and would just go with the majority while attempting to off Kas on the side. I don't really like how fatalistic they are looking at things in their last couple of posts, but that stuff isn't really alignment indicative. Can't vote because I am insane, but I'd say my order from least to most suspicious has now changed to Illwei -> JNV = Ash -> Fae, so if I could vote, I'd be voting Fae.
  6. DeTess
    Because by sharing your views it becomes easier for others to read you and stops your views from dying with you if the elims or a mislynch take you out. The elims of course are in the opposite camp, trying to make it difficult to read them and leaving as few clues as possible when they do get taken out. For this reason your lack of sharing your insights reads as suspicious.
  7. DeTess
    Doing the analysis for the PoE I established, starting with Fae: So Fae's posts have been over 90% banter, which makes them very difficult to read. Some of if sounds a bit performative though, such as them calling for the elims to come out, which makes me suspicious, and with there being basically no attempts to actually find the elims as far as I can tell there's nothing to counterbalance those vibes. As it stands, I'll be up for a Fae lynch whenever. @The Last Fæ, if you don't want people to lynch you over confusion as you stated earlier, the best you can do is to share some reads and opinions on people, as that could be used to determine your alignment in the long run. Next is JNV: They have had very few posts, and only one that seems really focused on solving the game, though I did like their thoughts on Aman and other related people in that post, and would honestly like to see more posts like that. @JNV, you shared some suspicion of Alpha in that post, but didn't really specify where that suspicion was coming from. can you expand on that? I'll get to the other two later this cycle, but as it stands my order form least suspicious to most is illwei-> JNV -> Fae -> Ash
  8. DeTess
    Right, of course. So that leaves illwei, fae, ash and jnv. Of these I'm most suspicious of Ash right now, but I plan to review them all this cycle.
  9. DeTess
    So with TJ submitting that action, the pool of possible killers based purely on mech shrinks to: TKN, Mat, illwei, kasimir, fae, alpha, ash, jnv and walin/steel. I think we can drop TKN and kas from the list, and I think Mat is probably village as well. Steel is also unlikely to be the killer here, unless @Elandera, do you allow active elims to puppet inactive elim's actions? So that leaves illwei, fae, alpha, ash and jnv as suspects for this kill.
  10. DeTess
    Yeah, I'm 99% sure I got hit. I lost my protective item, so whoever attacked me was not roleblocked.
  11. DeTess
    So just for the record, I don't really have a read on you one way or another, but Archer's mention just makes me curious enough to want to take a good look at your posts.
  12. DeTess
    So, just running a bit of analysis on Archer, specifically looking at this post right now: Now, trying to parse an elim's read list is definitely an exercise in IKYK, but there might still be something to be learned from that. First thing of note are the people Archer didn't mention in their read list: The Known Novel (did question, didn't mention in reads) Araris Valerian Sart (RIP) TheAlpha929 Ashbringer |TJ| (did question, didn't mention in reads) Steeldancer Alvron (did question, didn't mention in reads) It should also be noted that tough they did include JNV on their read's list, it wasn't a serious read. Some of these players had just been pretty quiet, but I feel like some others (specifically, Araris, Ash and Alpha) had said enough that it should have been possible to form reads on them, so Archer skipping over them stands out a little to my mind. That doesn't mean these are confirmed elim, but it does mean Archer for some reason didn't want to commit to a stance on them yet. Archer's hard village reads where those that seemed to be quite universally village read at that time, while the weak village read is Fae, for some reason. Illwei starts at weak village but then immediately gets downgraded to neutral/ I'll take a closer look at Fae if I'm still alive tomorrow. only serious elim read was me, and Archer backed off on that pretty quickly when I answered their question.
  13. DeTess
    I misremembered. It was alpha that claimed that, not JNV.
  14. DeTess
    Shade experts have silver bones as a standard, so having another protection item on top of that feels a bit much. It's no guarantee of course, but I do think it is unlikely. Edit: misunderstood, sorry. The only way that Sart could have died while not increasing the shade counter is by dying to the shades, and the only way sart could get shaded without succesfully killing someone is by hitting someone protected by the shade expert.
  15. DeTess
    So that means the elim!SE theory has now been 100% confirmed. No real clue about who it is yet though. Did Archer drop any loot? I didn't get anything at least. Edit: hmmm, there might be some narrowing down about who it is possible. Probably not steel is the e!SE was active, probably not JNV as they claimed a defensive item and I don't think the e!SE would triple-dip like that. More thoughts on this later.
  16. DeTess
    That theory got debunked by Elandera clarifying the wrath has to kill to reset. The idea was that the elims killed sart, got wrathed but survived and had the attacker go insane. But basically all my scenarios pointed at those two as suspect. Also, archeralvron. I trust Alvron has been properly chastised for his crimes now. edit: running some analysis on the D1 votes and other stuff to see if I can figure out who the remainder would be in an Aman+Archer team. Vote list courtesy of Alvron, purple annotations to mark Aman and Archer my own: So, I'm feeling fairly confident that Mat, Araris and TJ can't be part of a team with Aman and Archer. There's no good reason for Archer to be put up for the lynch in that situation, even if Archer was planning on hammering their way out of it. If Archer does survive todays exe that might change a little, but not much. Based on what happened Cycle 2, Devotary can't be on a team with Aman, and based on what happened this cycle TKN can't be on a team with archer. That leaves Kasimir, Illwei, the last fae, alpha, ash, JNV, Steel and Alvron. I'm just going to hard-read kas as village, because if he isn't we're all going to die anyway he has been making good village contributions and has apparently been almost killed twice now by the elims. The remainder can't really be removed from the possible team and would need to get looked at in detail individually. Based on my earlier readthroughs I'd say Ash is more likely to be on the team and Illwei is less likely. The rest is in-between in no particular order.
  17. DeTess
    That would mean that the elims had at least two doses of silver dust, or Araris is an elim. Oh, yeah, for the record, with TKN's reveal I am now pretty certain that archer is evil, but I need to keep my crusade against alvron up for at least the first half of this day to properly express my indignation.
  18. DeTess
    I mean, that shade could be very easily tested. Just to confirm, @Devotary of Spontaneity, where you told your rolebock of TJ failed? @ArcherWhy steeldancer? As for what TKN just revealed, that is odd. My first instinct would be that e!Archer was protected by an SE team-mate, but then, why would the e!SE protect someone other than the one submitting the kill? Archer claiming this role could obviously be to seem valuable to the village and/or convince people not to lynch someone needing two lynches. Maybe Archer did submit the kill, but got overridden last minute and the protection didn't get moved? Or Sart told someone they'd be taking that shot who they should not have trusted? I can't really think of any reason why v!archer would be lying here. All that having been said though, Alvron should still be brought to justice for his crimes.
  19. DeTess
    Who did you protect on night 1?
  20. DeTess
    @Kasimir It's about this bit from his analysis post, specifically the profile of Aman Alvron linked to:
  21. DeTess
    Alvron knows what he did. And If you take a thorough look at his posts this cycle, you'll know as well, and understand why he needs to be brought to justice, irrespective of his actual alignment. I'll probably swap to Archer at some point, but right now I need to vent my indignation.
  22. DeTess
    I want to take a look at Alvron and Archer, as the mech for this turn makes them look suspicious in my eyes. Starting with Alvron. Sorry, make that Alvron. You know what you did. Seriously, I hadn't fallen for that one in years. (In all seriousness, Alvron did a lot of just floating around, then knuckled down for some analysis at the start of this cycle, though it's mostly recap of everything that happened. So far there is just about nothing I consider alignment indicative.) Archer seems to be putting in a lot of effort to solve the game, which always makes me look at someone as village. Not sure what their normal elim playstyle looks like so whether they normally try to deepwolf. They've said more than a few things that I disagreed with, but that doesn't make them evil. Most noteworthy is I think them (correctly) village reading Sart since C1, for reasons I don't quite get. Might have been an attempt to get Sart to read them as village as well? I'd say I actually lean slightly village on Archer, except looking at Sart's posts, Archer is the more likely candidate for Sart to have shot if they had the crossbow, and I've explained before why I think that person is very likely to be an elim. So, if I had to choose between Alvron and Archer I'd think Archer is a bit more likely to be evil? Their posts aren't that suspicious, but from the point of view of mech, they look worse than Alvron does. However, Alvron needs to get executed for their crimes, so that's where my vote is at right now.
  23. DeTess
    @Kasimir I'd say no more than 2 SE in the game, one for the elims, one for the village. It's not a small game so if Devo hadn't claimed white fox I might have considered the village having 1 more SE, but as it is two protective roles and a smattering of defensive items (silver bones, pallid masks and the like) should be plenty of defensive power for the village. I don't think that just because Aman had silver dust that it means the elims didn't also have an SE. It would provide a little bit of redundancy, and as we've seen here there must have been at least 1 crossbow floating around, so even with the safety net of silver dust an elim SE would have a job to do. I just realized that I missed another potential scenario for the way things went down: Elims attack Kasmir, Someone attacks sart with a crossbow, triggers wrath, but survives due to SE or other form of protection.
  24. DeTess
    @KasimirWrath only gets triggered if the target actually dies, so the kill against you couldn't have triggered the wrath as you're still alive. If I understand you correctly, you were saved by Silver bones this time,right? In that case the possible scenarios are: Elims attack Kasmir, Sart attacks someone protected by SE and gets hit by shades in retalitation, dying to it. Sart attacks Kasimir, elims attack and kill Sart and trigger wrath, but survive due to SE or other form of protection. The first scenario sounds a lot more likely, even if we take redirects into account. Sart never claimed crossbow but did have up to two PM's, so might have claimed to the wrong person in one of those. In case of Scenario 1, Sart probably attacked 1 of Alvron and Archer, and Archer sia bit more likely as Sart mentioned them as someone to investigate in their last post. However, I am having a hard time figuring out why a v!se would protect either Archer or Alvron, as Devotary or Kasimir are far more likely targets. An e!SE would probably be protecting their team-mates though... In scenario 2, the elim that attacked Sart would be at risk of going insane unless they had Iron will, so again Archer and Alvron look suspicious. Could someone that played previously give me an idea about how many Iron will's the elim team is likely to have? If it's likely just the one Aman had then I feel pretty confident in saying that one of Alvron or Archer is an elim.
  25. DeTess
    I realized one other potential scenario that fits the evidence, but it's a much longer shot: Sart got attacked and killed by the elims, which immediately triggered the wrath if shades, resetting it. The elim then survived due to some form of protection (but if they didn't gave iron will, they would be insane). The odds of this are only 5% though, so the crossbow scenario is more likely.
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