DeTess

Huh, only 1 shard broke out. Ruin, could you contact me? I'd like to discuss reforming the GladOS faction with you. (obviously, don't contact me, keep quiet so that the non17th shard factions can't easily find you) I was thinking of sharing some reads from the previous night (I liked Xinoehp's post discussing shards and strategies in particular), but we almost certainly just had two conversions, so it'll be difficult to form village reads until the conversions are done with. That having been said, I'm getting very mild elim vibes from Archer? Mostly the way they engaged with me for my priority list and then immediately backed off again after I responded feels a bit similar to last game when they engaged me over the timing of my Aman vote, which also was a bit hit-and-run without really getting stuck in at all. I'd also be up for executing Matrim, because I didn't get to do so last game despite trying for something like half the game's total runtime. *** "Ruin has been broken out." Vahal's familiar voice was transmitted to Tessa's ear through the medium of a small ruby bead in her ear. It used the same basic principles as a spanreed, but to transmit the vibrations of sound instead of the movements of a pen. Tessa DeLoren had arrived in Silverlight the night before, and had found a package waiting for her in her accommodations. It contained the bead, A pair of silver and aluminum knives and a host of other equipment that was only too familiar to her, though it had been an age or two since she had carried them. "Ruin was one of the first to return to the field during the waning of the age of Autonomy." She replied, her voice picked up by the ruby stone in the choker she was wearing. The thing was sensitive, so she didn't have to raise her voice too much. A good thing too, as she didn't want to attract too much attention to herself as she made her way through Silverlight's crowds. "Was that the doing of one of yours?" Vahal had marked Ruin as a Shard in need of special attention, given how useful it had been to his faction. "No, it was not." Vahal replied immediately. "I was actually hoping you had..." "I'm nowhere near as arrogant as Ati or any of those that came after him." Tessa replied immediately. "As I said, I'm willing to observe and provide you with information, but I won't act unless I see an opportunity to avert tragedy." The lie came easily. She had her own goals here, which could prove to be very incompatible with Vahal's. She would feed him information, but beyond that, she was her own agent. "Understood." Vahal replied. "I don't suppose you could give me a reading on Ruin's new vessel?" "I'm on my way to do that now." She replied. "I'll call you once I'm at my destination."

You can get PM's from just the investiture and the world docs can partially perform the PM role as well, so I don't think it is as important as making it more difficult for the elims to get Mercy.

@DrakeMarshall before the Odium Investiture change I'd say it is important to get Odium out to limit the amount of killing investiture, but with the nerf it is not quite that bad. I fully expect Ruin and Odium to get broken out today, but I would be pleasantly surprised if they aren't. I'd say honor, survival and dominion are on my shortlist for village useful shards as they give protection (and honor in particular is unlikely to go too badly rogue on its personal wincon). I'd say Ambition is also useful because its vessel could talk to dead players. Odium and Ruin both have kills, but are also likely to go pretty badly rogue once they flip neutral, so I'd prefer them to remain in containment, even though that is unlikely. Mercy feels like a Shard that uniquely benefits the elims, as they have more insight into valid execution targets, and opinions on who they want to live. That might be reason to jailbreak it now to reduce chances of the elims getting it through a concerted push later. Prudence creates PM's, which is allways nice. So my shortlist for N1 would be honor, dominion, ambition, mercy and prudence, in roughly that order from most to least important.

After last game, I fully agree. Matrim. I'll be doing a bunch of travelling today, so I won't be able to start RPing (or any other major activity) until tomorrow.

So regarding the massed odium charges, potential 'fixes' other than no charges on escape (because I do agree it looks a bit worrysome). Odium kill requires a second charge of investiture to use (but could be from another shard) Preservation charges activate the next turn rather than the next cycle (so any N0 preservation charges could be used D1 to have protection N1 and D2) On breakout, only 4 charges are distributed. The first and second idea achieve the same goal of ensuring the kills can't come down before proper self protects do, while the last one limits the amount of charges on escape to keep the chaos down. Also, can vessel actions from ambition charges stack (so you could get more than 2 actions)?

"Oh, that's truly wonderful!" The couple expressed their delight as the fortune teller finished the card reading predicting their happy future together. After paying the slight woman the two left the shade of the fortune teller's tent for Dayside's burning daylight. The fortune teller gathered up her cards and spread them out face-up in front of her, while waiting for the next customer. Some would consider her a charlatan, preying on the gullible with some made up card tricks. She had few illusions about the actual power of the cards she used. Most people that came to her simply needed advice or reassurance, advice which she would then dispense to the best of her ability using a little bit of sleight of hand to make sure the cards ended up were they needed to be. Sure, the set dressing was a little unconventional, but it was not that unusual to be paid for providing advice, now was it? After some time, a new customer arrived. He was a very tall woman, appearing to be in his early thirties, with the lightest blue eyes the fortune teller had ever seen. "Welcome, dearest guest. If you wish I can lay bare the secrets of your future, or the futures of those you care about." She gestured towards the seat in front of her, inviting the woman to sit. "Tch, so I've heard." The woman sneered at her as she sat down, disbelief in her eyes. The fortune teller suppressed a sigh. Sometimes people like that would stop by, people who just wanted to ridicule her and try to disprove her arts. She'd just have to keep a straight face and get the whole thing done with as soon as possible. "Please tell me what it is you wish to learn about, dearest guest. Is it love you wish to know about or maybe the success of..." "Everything." The tall woman interrupted the fortune teller. "I'm sorry, everything?" The fortune teller asked. "I am afraid that it is difficult to..." "That's right, everything." The tall woman interrupted the fortune teller again. "If you can't do that, I am done here." "As you wish." the fortune teller fished a card bearing an image of a planet out of the deck and put it down in front of her, then started shuffling the deck. As she did so, she started tapping into the reserve of Fortune stored in the metalmind on her right arm. She rarely did so, but the customer had riled her up enough that she wanted to attempt a True reading, even if the person in front of her would never be able to appreciate it. Once she was done shuffling she put the deck down and pulled the first card, putting it down on top of the card she'd picked to represent the question. "Nine of staves, reversed. Calamity and adversity. The world is not a peaceful place." The draw had not shocked the fortune teller. The world had always been like this. "Next is four of cups. In this context, it could mean stagnation. Things have remained unchanging for too long." That card, too was unsurprising. The world had been stuck in its current paradigm for a long time, though not so long that the young-looking fortune teller had not seen a different one. "Next, the four of coins." The fortune teller stopped for a moment. This was a bad omen. "The best possible outcome for the coming events is that things stay exactly as they are. Change can only be for the worse. Next is..." she frowned for a moment. She was starting to see the outline of the situation, and did not like its implications. "Three of staves. For what is to come, Strength and ingenuity will be the main tools." The fortune teller took a moment to regain her composure, but kept here eyes on the cards. No doubt her audience of one still had that sneer on her face. "Next is the eight of coins, reversed. Vanity and lack of ambition are things of the past. After that, six of cups, also reversed. Change is coming." She was silently cursing the impreciseness of the cards now. It was a useful enough tool when dispensing advice, but now that she actually wanted to know... She reached for the deck again, preparing to draw the last four cards. These would hold the actual prediction. "Queen of swords, reversed. Deceit will be the way this change is brought about. Two of coins. News should arrive soon about the matter to come. Ace of swords. Whatever will come, will be done by force, and the changes will be massive. Last card, Four of Swords. Solitude, retreat. But in light of everything else... an end to such matters. A force that had left the world returns to plague it once more." Then, the fortune teller added as a whisper, meant for herself, not her audience. "The Shards will break free" The fortune teller took a moment more to collect herself, then looked up to face her customer. She expected scorn and derision at the overly dramatic reading. Yet instead, the tall woman had gone pale, a mix of fear and newfound respect on her face. "Master Vahal was right." The tall woman murmured. "Your ability is real." The fortune teller had gone pale herself at the mention of that name. 'Vahal' was a name she had not heard for a long time. Not since the war that ended the age of Autonomy. "Tessa DeLoren." The tall woman addressed the fortune teller directly. "Won't you return to the fold?" *** Signing up as Tessa DeLoren, a veteran of the (now clearly wrongly named) Final Shardic War that ended the age of Autonomy. edit: for those curious about Tessa DeLoren's past adventures:

@TheAlpha929did you intentionally soft claim elim at the end there to make me paranoid about you having silver bones and make me look for another execution?

Welp. Please ignore all analysis I did last cycle, and refer to anything I said before that. Also, I told you so.

I've got to commit to a vote as I likely won't be around untill turnover is over. I don't feel too confident about either illwei or mat being alpha's team mate, though I'm leaning more towards illwei. Still, I think I have to stick to alpha as he's the one I'm sure of. @Alvron, @Matrim's Dice, @Illwei, please don't forget to vote. Also, I'd like to ask you to join my vote on Alpha as I won't be able to move my vote and anything not consolidated can be contested by the two remaining elims. edit: alpha, just realized I didn't actually put the vote down yet.

So, why Mat/detess? and why Alpha/alv despite them not fitting the N3 or N5 action group for the kills? Like, I don't blame you for not trusting me, but that analysis is pure mech and not based on any trust. To summarize (and you can check back to the thread if you want to), the N3 kill had to be submitted by one of: Illwei Mat DeTess and the N5 kill had to be submitted by one of: Mat Alpha Alvron DeTess This is based purely one everyone else either having a mechanical alibi that's pretty much airtight (action confirmed in one way or another by someone that has since flipped village). Based on the above, alph/alvron is simply impossible, because neither could have submitted the N3 kill. Mat/DeTess is not mechanically impossible, but archer tried to get me executed D1 through last minute voting, and I've been trying to get Mat executed for 3-4 cycles now, so even if you believe I'm somehow an elim despite the double attempts to off me, me and Mat being on the same team seems really unlikely. @IllweiWhy are you so convinced alpha is village now that you don't even want to consider them being an elim, despite having repeatedly stated suspicion of them in earlier cycles?

refer to:

Technically I could have attacked myself (I think, not 100% sure on this. @Elanderado you allow attacking yourself?). Unfortunately, the actual action I took that night cannot be proven. I can show that I had claimed I would take that action, but no more than that. For the record, I had told Kas that I would give him my mask and taken that action that night. This was the reason Kas told Alpha in thread to give their mask to devotary instead (and why Kas immediately assuemd I got hit as they didn't receive the item and I went insane). As attacks happen before item passing the mask got destroyed before I could pass it there is no way for me to prove I actually took that action however. It should also be noted that Archer hammered on me D1 to resolve the tie. If we were both elims it would make more sense to go after mat, and if all 3 of us were elims it would also make more sense to go after Mat as mat had an extra life. Now, looking over Mat and Illwei. I'll be specifically looking at things that tie either of them To Archer, Aman or Alpha. D1 Archer was voting Mat on and off. The reasoning feltlike they meant it to stick, rather than just being distancing, but in the end they hammered on me rather than Mat. On the other hand, Mat voting Archer to put them in the lead looks a lot better here, especially because they could have also kept their vote on me there. Alpha expressed suspicion of Mat, but chalked it up to tunneling and backed off after a joke vote. Noteworthy thing about this is that they express suspicion which could help them gain village cred, while having an excuse for not acting on it. Feels a bit more like distancing here. Mat did much the same here, lowkey defending alpha here while the same time stating they had no problems with others voting them. There is also Aman's vote on Mat. I'm not entirely sure if e!aman would have done this with e!mat. Given mat's extra life ti could have been a smart bit of distancing, and the vote didn't seem to be combined with much of a case that would have put pressure on Mat later. Overall, D1 makes me feel like Mat was probably not aligned with archer, was aligned with alpha and shrug on Aman. So averages out to neutral when looking at the entire elim team. Illwei meanwhile wasn't present at all. N1 Archer now village reads Mat (and me) for how the vote worked out. Could be protectring team-mate Mat, here but the implication here is also 'hey, I was part of the tie as well until I broke it, so should be included in the same group as these two'. Still not much on Illwei tying them to or separating them from the rest of the elim team. D2 Illwei states suspicions of an Ash/Archer team and suggests wanting to resolve the D1 wagons. But then they vote Ash (who was village) rather than Archer (who was an elim). This feels inconsistent in hindsight, and might have been an attempt to both direct a mislynch and use that mislynch to clear archer. Alpha also later joins them on that vote. (I am ignoring anything said by Aman after the RB got revealed, as anything from that point onwards was most likely carefully crafted to obfuscate information and lead anyone analyzing it in the wrong direction). Neither Illwei nor Alpha ever actually switched onto Aman, which is noteworthy. Alpha wasn't around, but Illwei deliberately kept off the wagon, and I just don't really see why that was. Maybe the were still hoping for some other wagon to materialize? Overall, D2 I'm not seeing much aligning Mat with any of the elims, but Illwei seems a little bit aligned with the entire elim team here. N2 Archer village reads both Mat and Illwei, though Mat stronger than Illwei. Ilwei posts a suspicion list without much further explanation. The list includes about half the players, but in particular both Alpha and Archer. Neither had done anything to not be on there though, so this does not really push Illwei oen way or another. D3 After the possibility of 1 of Alvron or Archer being evil is brought up, Illwei throws shade at Alvron, indirectly protecting Archer. Illwei also doesn't join the Archer train and even throws some shade on it, suggesting there is too littler resistance for it to be a hit (or that all elims are bussing) here. Mat is on the Archer train, though not the first to join. Overall feel illwei is more aligned with Archer than mat is here. N3 Illwei seems a bit confused why I think e!SE is now confirmed. This could be a village sign as e!ilwlei would know I was right, but also an attempt by e!illwei to try and deflect a correct conclusion. Illwei seemed to be putting Alpha low on a reads list as well, but puts ash lower, and doesn't really elaborate why they suspect alpha, so they could move that read away from suspicion easily later. D3 Mat is village reading alpha hard for passing on the mask to devo, which must have been the intended effect of the move. Not urneasonable, but does make Alpha and Mat look more aligned. Illwei keeps e!rading alpha, but states once again they can't explain why and they don't act on it D4 Illwei votes on alpha, and lets the vote stick even as Alpha gets pretty close to being executed, though it seems they attempted to retract it later? Alpha reads Mat as elim, illwei as Neutral. Doesn't vote Mat though, so that e-read does not really have fangs. N4 when theorizing the team with Araris, Mat doesn't consider Alpha as possibility (consistent with earlier hard village read) D5 Illwei was tracked and didn't do anything... not sure how much this matters (it'd make sense alpha would submit the kill as they're likely to be the e!SE), but wanted to make a note of it anyway. D8 ... I think I lost track of the days and nights somewhere along the way. Either that or for the next couple of days/nights nothing of note happened Either way, on D8 Illwei indirectly went after Alpha, asking why they weren't in the pool of suspects. They did not vote on them, instead going after Walin despite mentioning they townread JNV. N8 Illwei immediately distance themselves from their Walin vote. Mat also backs off of their Alpha V!read, which is a somewhat good look here, as they could have clung to it and used it to attempt a switch onto me instead. D9 Illwei seems to be completely disregarding their earlier suspicions of Alpha, instead tunneling onto me and Mat for some unexplained reason. So, all things added up Both Mat and illwei have ties to the elim team, but I feel like Illwei looks less consistent. Mat has strong ties to Alpha, but they came form one consistent event and Mat eventually reconsidered it when the numbers dropped when he could have clung to it to justify a switch onto me. Meanwhile Illwei claimed suspicion of Alpha for a while but rarely acted on it and never elaborated, and this cycle they've suddenly backed off from it completely, even though Alpha basically claimed with their supreme confidence about victory. So overall, I think illwei looks slightly more suspicious to me? That having been said, I need to align my vote with @Alvron's as it is Lylo, so the village can't split their vote. Alvron, looking over what I mentioned above, do you still think Mat is the more suspicious one?

I would very much prefer that, yes. With the way things stand I feel more like going after one of you or Illwei first, and I'll go over the two of you in detail tomorrow as well. Edit: @Alvron, what are your thoughts?

Okay, so I've been thinking. If there were 3 elims we'd have lost now. Yet alpha has been very confident that they'll win, despite the fact that elims can very much lose in a 3 vs 2 scenario. What might be going on is that the two remaining elims have 3 lives between them, so (another) set of Silver bones. This means the village is in trouble as we'll have to win 1-2 50/50 odds (depending on if alpha has the bones, which is guaranteed in a mat/alpha team). In this regard it might be better to execute someone other than alpha to reduce the amount of 50/50 odds the village has to win. I'd say Mat, except the theory that the elims still have a set of silver bones cuts away one of the main pillars for suspicion on Mat. I'll run some analysis later to see who else could be alpha's team mate. However, it should be noted that an e!sb!alpha execution is somewhat 'safe' in that it effectively forces the other elim to out themselves to force the two 50/50s, so they won't be able to hide. But it leaves the village with odds slightly better than 25% of actually pulling off a win. edit: okay, so Alpha's team-mate has to be someone in the N3 Mech pool as alpha wasn't in there, so mat or Illwei. Alvron can therefore be considered village at this point.

If the elims killed me, alpha would be completely exposed, so tkn makes sense as the kill.

So only two elims. Alpha. I'm fine with Mat too, but I'm 100% certain alpha is evil for taking that VitC and then trying to pin it on me. Plus they all but claimed last night (and just now as well).

You wouldn't be so confident if it was just you and Mat left.

Okay, so who is your third member then? Not TKN, so illwei or Alvron. I can see either one at this point. @Alvron what happened to your vote?

See, elim team is Alpha and Matrim, as I said several cycles back. And we'd better hope that that's it and no villagers go insane tonight, and everyone actually shows up to vote. Because otherwise we've lost.

So, once again a reminder to everyone that hasn't voted yet (@Illwei, @TheAlpha929, @Walin, @Steeldancer @Alvron), please remember to put your votes in at the very least.

For that particular pool, Alpha's action was accounted for (handing a mask to Devotary).

No real context. Devotary didn't like TKN's hidden vote so decided to block hem, and presumably informed me in case they died.

Devotary blocked TKN this turn according to our PM, so they didn't submit the kill. Anyway, Mat.

True, but TKN played an important role in brining Archer down, so I'm inclined to believe them. Question for you, why did you vote Mat this time around when you voted Araris last cycle?

Since my number one suspicion for mat's team mate is alpha I could see tkn VitCing mat while alpha did the same to araris, resulting in this vote count.