AliasSheep

After cycle 3 it's basically useless to us unless everyone wants to reveal every item they have and get, which isn't exactly information one might want to share.

I'm sceptical of Doc's plan. It requires putting too much faith in a small group of people. In addition, I saw El suggesting that the only reason the highest Merit poster wouldn't have an ionBlade is if it had been stolen, but if I read the rules right, only the Forsworn actually get a chance of the free ionBlade. Thus, if they don't actually have one then either it was stolen or they never had one in the first place. And the converse is also true, if they do have one, there's a good chance they're Forsworn. This is especially true in the early turns, when it's very unlikely that someone would have enough Merit to purchase an ionBlade (either cycle 3 or cycle 4 at the minimum assuming a Bellona and depending on whether you're allowed to put in orders for items with Merit you're going to recieve that cycle). Now that I think about it, for the first few turns, this might be a good way of assessing that situation. The idea of lots of people stealing ionBlades, unfortunately, could obfuscate that in that the highest Merit poster could be a Julii who has just stolen an ionBlade yet is Faithful. This is possible since only Forsworn would recieve the ionBlades, so the person who actually gets it could be perhaps second or third most in Merit. I'd prefer not to have ionBlade's overall, if I'm honest, private kills are too far out of the public eye for my liking, but if it becomes necessary, I suppose it would be justified in occuring. I'd recommend people use their Merit for PMs earlier on however; as enticing as saving up might be, the increase in information is much more useful, and much more longlasting than a single use item. The problem with the confirming of roles is of course the endless recursion. The person who's confirming the role has to be proven to be a Lune, and the only way to do that is for another supposed Lune to confirm their role. This early on, I don't know how useful the role confirmation is, since I don't think anyone is going to be particularly trusting of each other. I'm not saying it isn't going to be more useful further down the line, but right now I wouldn't depend on it. That all being said, El is right in that there's pretty much no reason for the Forsworn to actually lie about their role or (most of) their actions. I can expect some Fabii's to not be totally honest about their vote switching for example. And, Doc, I haven't made any PMs yet, though I have recieved some. I intend to make some and hopefully co-ordinate better. I'm willing to bet that by now the elims have already set up a group PM, given we've already been playing for a day. Assuming they're less organised is a risk regardless of whether they actually have though; if we assume they're as organised as elims normally are, then we're better set up for dealing with them in the case they are.

I was asleep! I'll keep that in mind then. -- "Nirgal au... well, let's keep that for more intimate settings, shall we?" He went to clasp Spartacus' hand when a woman grabbed it, pushing him out the way. She clicked in front of him - bizarre behaviour - and then introduced herself. How rude. "And who might you be, then? I don't think we've met."

The green was nice. Nirgal could see little specks of white where saxifrage sprouted from the fertile ground, a rather unexpected but pleasant turn of events. There were specks on the edge as well, where a small landslide had brought a pile of rocks down on a bunch of the flowers, but instead of dying, they had instead poked through their stone oppressors into the dim light. He could see the sun ahead, giving a purple-ish tinge to the mostly dark sky, and the stars shone alongside it, crowning Sol with a lattice of legends. He thought he could see Urgulu, or at least what would look like it from Earth. He'd been there once. It felt like a long time ago, but it probably wasn't. He'd gone there, and he'd looked up into the sky and seen Urgulu. Once upon a time. The saxifrage made patterns as well, like the constellations. The stars of the ground, shining in the reflected light, carving artwork into the ground, coloured by the few flowers that managed to survive around them. Nirgal wondered if he could see Urgulu in their patterns. He couldn't. - The wine wasn't the nicest he'd ever had. He'd thought that the ArchGovernor would have provided better; would have cared more, but apparently not. This brought him back to his imaginings of home. He'd known someone nearby who'd had a vineyard who had shared wine they'd had made for them. The man hadn't cared for taking care of the vineyard himself, to Nirgal's disappointment, but the wine had been good, so they'd shared a meal over it many a time. Occasionally Nirgal had even brought food from his estates over. He'd never told the man he'd made it himself. He set his glass down on the table beside him and leaned back. He had yet to go perform his vows. He intended to put it off as long as possible. It wasn't the outright kind of rebellion that Sanis put on, but it was enough. He didn't really mind that much - the travel was nice. Io had been nice as well. Exciting for sure. Oh well, he'd go up eventually. Beside him, though, was someone he'd never seen before. The man had chosen to stand for some reason, and his long coat seemed out of place among the robes worn by most of those around. Nirgal, of course, also stood out, the fringed ends of his crimson red and jade green shawl brushing against the paved ground beneath him. But even still, the man stood out even more. And were those a pair of old stereoscopic glasses? They must've been over a thousand years old - wherever had the man found them? "So, " he said, in the general direction of the strange figure, "have you gone up to confirm your vows yet?" ---- Right, with RP out of the way. @Elbereth, how did you intend to calculate each person's merit? I considered it being based on what you yourself had earned for posts, but I don't think the system is that structured, with it being dispensed more at Tiberius' discretion than according to a definite metric, though I may be wrong.

'twas QF15 Oh, and Happy Birthday

I think I got most of them. Anyway, I'll sign up as.. Nirgal. Character will come later, will take the prompt if need be.

What happened to the other votes?

When did he tell you this? And has anyone else been told this by Darkness? You didn't explain your vote on Darkness in your post; I'm not one to assume that you simply voted in retaliation. That seems like a futile effort to me, unless you were actually at risk of being lynched, which you weren't. I brought it up because of the lack of an explanation in the post and I explained why I mentioned you stating your suspicions. They made your post seem more substantial and thus easier to skip over. Is this your argument for your suspicion of Dani? Because they're the same points Ecth made earlier: And to question your second point, @Ecthelion III, that vote was accompanied by a fairly long explanatory paragraph justifying Dani's vote. That's not nearly the same as just placing a vote at the end of the cycle to "firm up the lynch" or something like that. It was explained and reasoned etc. If anything, that's a point in Dani's favour. On latter thought as well, questioning your first point, I'm not sure how relevant that early bandwagon is - it seems kinda minor. It was the first cycle and we're now on cycle 5 and personally Dani seems to have made me trust her, so I'm willing to look it by. I presume it's not the same for you. Also, guys, we have ~1 hour left and no one up for the lynch. I'd rather have a lynch than not, so can we get some more votes in?

@I_am_a_Stick, do you have a respone to my accusations of you?

Divorced, Beheaded, Died, Divorced, Beheaded, Survived damnation Horrible Histories. Anyway WLIU name 10 Hamilton songs.

Hmm, good point. I don't think you're able to look at people's past times of being on the forum, so I don't think I could've checked that? Reverse psychology much? Anyway, in light of that; Ecth Stick Like I said, I was gonna vote for Stick anyway, and without the thing that was making me vote for Ecth, I'm going back to Stick.

I'm not so sure about Mark. Last round he explained he wouldn't be able to vote (since he'd be asleep after he posted and wouldn't wake till after rollover) before the lynch discussion moved onto Darkness, thus Mark had no chance to participate in the lynch on Darkness. Similarly, he didn't post at all on the day Bard was lynched. If it was just the latter, I'd say that he was avoiding posting when a teammate is up for lynch, but given the latter, when he wouldn't have known beforehand, it seems reasonable. I actually went to investigate Mark as well and he striked me as suspicious, but then I noticed that. The other thing worrying me was that when he placed his vote on you he wasn't fully justifying it and was just copying my reasoning, but when I went back to look at it I saw that I was wrong about that; he justified voting on you further rather than copying my reasons. Chaos' actions seem about right since it's her first game and she's getting to grips with it. The people whose actions interest me more are Stick and Ecth. I haven't really seen either of them posting a lot, yet Stick helped lynch and Ecth also helped lynch Assassin. (You might wanna check your stats, Len; Ecth didn't post last round). If we look at Stick's vote on Darkness (I can't quote from closed threads :/): "I'm voting for Darkness too. I'm fairly suspicious of Daniyah as well. But I have more to think on that matter" There's not a lot there, is there. They've voted on Darkness... why, exactly? Because the rest of us did? And then say they have suspicions on Dani but don't elaborate in the least. The feeling I get from this is that they're trying to get us to trust them by bussing a teammate. That would explain the lack of reasoning. The second bit, about Dani, seems to further the cover. "I'm voting for Darkness but I'm also suspicious of this other person" is much easier to look over than "I'm voting for Darkness". There's more to it, if you get what I mean. Then, looking at Ecth's vote on Assassin: "I'll increase the vote margin on Assassin to help avoid manipulation. Whoever I was on before" This is one of two posts Ecth made on Cycle 3 and the former wasn't relevant to lynch discussion but was more of a rules clarification if anything. So, no contribution to the lynch, yet obviously following it enough to put this vote on Assassin. What I'm wondering is, we knew that Len had vote-manip, he revealed that near the beginning of the cycle, so surely the vote was secure with Len's manipulation. That being said, we don't know how many Orange drafters the elims had, so it could have been what made the lynch, but I'm suspicious of voting just to secure a margin. I'd rather there be some other reasoning there as well. And then let's take this in the persepctive of knowing that Assassin was village. Did Ecth do this for Darkness? No. Did Ecth do this for Bard? No. Yet the vote on Bard was in a very similar position to the vote on Assassin; with myself placing the third vote on Bard similar to how Ecth placed the third vote on Assassin. Surely if Ecth was willing to vote to secure vote margins, he would have voted to secure the one on Bard. So Ecth is putting in last minute votes to secure a lynch on a villager, but not doing the same for an eliminator. That also seems suspicious to me. Out of the two, I think I'm going to put my vote on Ecthelion. I was originally going to go for Stick, but then I looked at the thing about how Assassin was village and Ecth's previous actions and that strikes me more of an eliminator, an eliminator protecting eliminators in the lynch and securing lynches on villages to further the elim goal.

We both posted like within a minute of each other; I still hadn't seen your post when mine went up

Looking back over the game, I think its interesting that on cycle 1, Darkness asked Bard if Bard approved of what he was doing. Bard was later shown to be an eliminator, of course, so I'm wondering what that implies about Darkness. Then there's the thing that Elenion brought up about how Darkness made an out of nowhere accusation of Stick which (as I commented earlier) seemed kind of forced.

That's more an oops on my side... Sorry Len They said they were asking for protection from a Red Drafter. Either said drafter (I don't know who they are) didn't follow through and Magestar was killed by the elims, or Mage was killed by a sub-red. We can't really know to be sure. I know of two Red Drafters, my contact and @Darkness Ascendant and the former I don't think was the Red Drafter Mage was in contact with. Darkness, had Mage asked you for protection last cycle?

I wasn't one of the ones who tried to kill him; the Shard bearer was someone else from Roshar, I used an ability blocking his attacks that night and I also kept him on Roshar in case he left and I couldn't deal with him anymore. Unfortunately, he was killed, yes, but Kaladin was not involved. I'm gonna repeat again in the thread; if you're worried about being attacked and getting mortally wounded, come to Roshar.

I was in Magestar's doc indeed; he effectively revealed his identity too me very soon after me joining the doc. He also told me he was getting protection from a Red Drafter, which I assume would block elim kills. Thus the kill was a sub-red kill, and not something orchestratable by eliminators (I'm going to say now that I think the elims having a sub-red seems unlikely; that's two kills they'd have.). That, or the red drafter they had an agreement with didn't make good on the deal. I was in talks with a red drafter myself and Mage expressed surprise at there being more than one red drafter, though I don't myself doubt the possibility of there being two. And I've claimed Normal 4 different times to 4 different people in 4 different places. Twice in PMs, once in the superviolet doc and once in thread. Another interesting thing is that Mage told me in the superviolet doc that they'd seen a third Normal claim other than mine and Ecth's. And say, how does my role-claim act as a safety valve? The only reason I didn't post it first turn is because of the suspicion Ecth drew. I don't see what leverage that would gain on me or on the lynch? And did Mage tell you more about where his mistrust was coming from, or was it just a bad feeling? Because a mistrust in me (which I think developed from me going for you, or at least that's the impression I got from my discussions with you, where he seemed to trust you quite a bit) doesn't mean that I was the one who called in the kill. No.. how does it sound forced? If anything your post feels forced. I'm gonna read the previous cycles over more (I just got in from school) and then post something more; El just doesn't seem as suspicious anymore.

And to clarify before someone brings it up; I did mention about voting on inactives, but it's not the first cycle, it's the third, and as Mage as said, Assassin has kept quiet as an eliminator in the past and won. That all being said, if he's been on and seen our posts, and seen this discussion, why wouldn't he have responded?

Hmm. Alright. I think I was probably exaggerating it somewhat then in my head >.>. Len

Meh, it's fine. It might even help. Basically, everyone, I need to heal and protect people as part of my goal, and part of my other goal is that I can't kill except in defense of myself or another. So basically, if anyone's hurt or worried about being attacked, I can hopefully help.

2 vote-manips is still a lot. 2 or 3 orange drafters including polychromes etc (excluding the prism) seems more likely than not. Like I said earlier, there's a small number of players and a limited distribution of roles across those players. There's at least 1 neutral (and possibly more), and both Ecth and myself (yes, I am claiming) are "Normal", which means without a role. That's 12 at a maximum that drafters could be distributed over. A single bichrome has a higher probability of not being orange than being orange; I wouldn't imagine there's more than say 5 or 6 bichromes in the game? Any more than half the drafters seems excessive. Out of them, like 1 or 2 will be able to draft orange? More likely 1 than 2. Then you have to have an orange-something bichrome and an orange drafter. Then if we include the prism, that's like 3 orange drafters in the game. The prism seems less likely to be a spy than not; I just have mostly thematic issues with this. Then saying there's like 3 or 4 eliminators, and we know that one of them was a green drafter, then it seems unlikely that 2 others would be orange. The chances of that occuring seems low at best, and even if the GM is doing what you think they're doing and purposefully making a distribution, that's an unbalanced distribution. So if we say it's 1 orange drafter they have, that's 1 vote manip. Which isn't a lot of manipulation going on especially if you knew you were going to change votes yourself to strengthen the vote. It seems like the point about strengthening the vote to stop vote manip seems kind of... weak. EDIT: That was kind of rambly, sorry

There's no real way of knowing the distribution of roles in the game. I'm more inclined to think they were pseudo-randomly assigned rather than the GM specifically giving the eliminators certain roles. That just seems to be creating some kind of bias.

In this game, 2 vote manips is a lot of vote manips. My comment was that him thinking that they have enough vote manips to affect the game indicates he has insider knowledge. I'll give you that; I don't think bussing seems likely in this situation. There's always a chance a sub-red will attack him this cycle.

It doesn't? I'd like it if you could go over the reasons I mentioned in my post where I showed I was suspicious of Len and show why they don't make sense then. That being said @Assassin in Burgundy a post; anything really, would be welcome. EDIT: @Straw, if a red and a sub-red use their ability on the same player on the same cycle, does the former's ability block the latter's ability?

@Amanuensis Is your hunch resolved? I'd rather not have votes on me. Oh, and one of my role's things is that if I get lynched, I'm not gonna be the one who dies, my spren will. Keep that in mind.