Jump to content

DrakeMarshall

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4309

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    3

 Content Type 

Everything posted by DrakeMarshall

  1. DrakeMarshall
    Don't you check if players have been trolled? So the elims would only possibly troll you if they have at least 2 trolls, otherwise there'd be not much point, right? Which, granted, is a possibility we can't rule out. How likely do people think it is that the elims have at least 1 troll?
  2. DrakeMarshall
    I'm going to preemptively vote Steel bc the sacred numbers told me to and therefore I must do it, but Randby's insight on the subject would be most welcome. You are strong and wise and I am very proud of you. Excuse you sir when did I say anything of the sort? What I have been saying is that I am a pacifist I do not understand why everybody finds this proposition so doubtful. What is incongruous about me being a pacifist?
  3. DrakeMarshall
    Oh, well that's something. I've come to the conclusion that there are way too many conditional probabilities for my frail human brain to sort out by sheer intuition, so I've resorted to math. This cannot possibly go wrong, because math is never wrong I will keep you apprised of anything I might find. Edit: For the record, I am still a pacifist.
  4. DrakeMarshall
    Yo would any of our Tie Guys be able to tell me what happens when a Tie Guy is trolled?
  5. DrakeMarshall
    Yes, well spotted As a prize for your keen insight, have some more memes: #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7
  6. DrakeMarshall
    Well, I figure that might be up in the air, actually. It's a flipless game, so there isn't really anything preventing the GMs from bringing you back to life if they decide to do that, AFAIK. If it turns out that we actually did get a tie and all that entails, that'd be really swell. But honestly I've made peace with the fact that this game is confusing Edit: Also, I will say Kas was running on an impressively small amount of sleep circa rollover. I am quite confident he needs a good sleep more than he needs to deal with any of this insanity rn >> I highly recommend patience, I'm sure everything will get sorted out in due time, if there's things that do in fact need sorting out. In the memetime I can't currently think of a reason why we can't continue to go about our business without breaking anything. Probably. Do not quote me on this.
  7. DrakeMarshall
    These memes are excellent yes I do, in fact, regret voting for Biplet. But to be fair, I knew or strongly suspected what the correct vote tally was in the last couple minutes. Based on the fact that my tallybot was largely correct except missing Orlok. I figured we would be getting a tie, and that my vote was therefore in the correct spot, but I didn't expect Silho's vote manipulation on Wizard. Which I probably should have, considering Shining mentioned vote manipulating Wizard at one point, and never mentioned switching targets. I apologize on behalf of my tallybot screwing up the vote tally in the thread. And possibly breaking the official vote tally as well? I believe a version of my tallybot may or may not have been involved in its creation. There are some confusing cases where votes just... Don't get counted? Due to inexplicable weirdness in the HTML tags that Kas and I have been unable to reproduce in any way. At this point I'm pretty sure it's aliens or gremlins or ghosts or something >> Anyways mistakes have been made. Some of them possibly by me but let's not get distracted by those details right now. Please accept this humble offering of a meme:
  8. DrakeMarshall
    The title of this cycle adequately describes everything I have to say at this juncture.
  9. DrakeMarshall
    No, I think this is the right tally. Probably.
  10. DrakeMarshall
    Biplet Please don't make me regret this sir.
  11. DrakeMarshall
    Good grief what
  12. DrakeMarshall
    Not on purpose, no, although it's very funny that you say that because the thought definitely crossed my mind even if I didn't do it What's wrong with my vote count? Yeah, uh, sorry Wizard, is there anyone you would want to switch to?
  13. DrakeMarshall
    Why would Ashbringer have a role that removes a vote from him and another role that makes him immune to being executed at all? I guess maybe the idea is that the -1 vote makes it less likely that a turn is lost on Ashbringer getting executed. If we can confirm both the execution immunity and the -1 vote ability, that ought to strongly hint at Ashbringer's alignment, although of course there are ways the elims could conceivably replicate both of these effects.
  14. DrakeMarshall
    Well, right now he's 2 ahead. I can fix that by going Shining. Possibly. Edit: This ought to result in the following vote tally: Vote Tally Ashbringer (4): Amanuensis, Ashbringer, Matrim's Dice, Tani Shining Silhouette (3): Biplet, DrakeMarshall, The Wandering Wizard Steeldancer (1): Random Bystander Kasimir (1): Channelknight Fadran Biplet (1): Sart
  15. DrakeMarshall
    I'm okay with an Ashbringer train. I'm a bit confused why we're ditching the tie though. I'm a bit tempted to propose a train on Fadran, honestly. Part of this is maybe PoE. Fadran's votes haven't really stuck out to me one way or another, from what I can remember. Part of this is that, knowing our fabulous GMs' sense of humor, and all of this talk about confirmed villagers, I feel like Kas and Fifth absolutely would make the only Confirmed Villager role in the game be held by an elim troll. I'm wary of role analysis especially role analysis based on anecdotal knowledge of GM personality but this feels entirely plausible to me tbh. And on the subject of role analysis, I'd kind of be surprised if the elims didn't have a troll, FWIW. It's late in the cycle though, so I don't think I'd vote this way unless somebody else would too.
  16. DrakeMarshall
    Also, I would argue that I am the most confirmed of the confirmed players tbh All of these players who have ostensibly been scanned as village are just contingent on the alignment of the scanner. An elim can pretend to be a scanner and pretend to have scanned an elim as village and it isn't very costly for them. There is no role or alignment flip to keep them honest, and there is not really a firm expectation of a specific info role distribution either, because this game clearly has an abnormally high number of them to account for the flipless nature of the game. Faking a clear via scans is frighteningly viable in this game, imo. Whereas Tani straight-up wouldn't claim elim as a dead villager, I don't think. So in order for me to be evil the elims must have decided to kill one of their own N1 which would be very weird. That would require a much more costly gambit from the elims than a faked scan would. Not to mention getting the elims to agree on such a costly plan so early in the game. And while I do like costly gambits, I wasn't even playing N1, so my love of gambits doesn't even weigh against me here. I legit think I am the most confirmed villager in this game
  17. DrakeMarshall
    Imo, there aren't any hard-clears in this game. The closest thing we have to cleared players is that there are some pairs of players (Striker and Bookwyrm) who claim to have scanned each other as village, but even then they could both just be evil. I don't think Striker and Bookwyrm are evil, but I kinda don't feel that they're hard-cleared either. Which, yes, is paranoia inducing I feel like everybody is mostly just accepting all of these clears as solid and that's also paranoia inducing for me
  18. DrakeMarshall
    I just want to go on record and say, the reason I village read Matrim is that his low-key annoyance at my refusal to use a kill feels genuine. I want to point out, that if you don't trust Steel then it's kind of all a moot point, because isn't Steel the one reporting today's Tie Guy result? It doesn't really matter if Steel is included in the scan or not because if Steel is evil then Steel won't necessarily truthfully report the scan results Likewise, your Tie Guy scan yesterday isn't completely reliable, since technically you and Araris could both be evil bros together, and the elims could have a troll to have trolled Bookwyrm. Or if you're village but a troll trolled your Tie Guy scan I'm not even sure I know what that would do. Uncertainty is a thing we're gonna have to account for. Why Sart tho? I'm okay with it in theory but I don't see how its any better than Bip. Sart would basically be pure PoE yea? Do you have other reasons than that? I'm not sure how I feel about all of these vote switcheroos in the last couple pages and I still don't know how I want to vote. Vote Tally (I think) Ashbringer (3): Ashbringer, Matrim's Dice, Tani Biplet (3): Amanuensis, DrakeMarshall, Sart Shining Silhouette (2): Biplet, The Wandering Wizard Steeldancer (1): Random Bystander Kasimir (1): Channelknight Fadran
  19. DrakeMarshall
    If I told you, then I would have to kill you And if I killed you, then I would have to tell you Fortunately I have not done either Vote Tally Biplet (5): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, Archer, DrakeMarshall, Matrim's Dice |TJ| (2): Ashbringer, Biplet Ashbringer (1): |TJ| Archer (1): Shining Silhouette My vote remains on Bip at least for now. I kind of want to think things through some more before I consider changing anything. Between voting Archer or voting TJ, I'm really not sure which I prefer. On the one hand, TJ is a roleblocker and removing TJ may deny the elims their ability to roleblock. On the other hand, it seems at least possible that Archer is immune to NKs, which means the vote is potentially the only tool that can deal with Archer. I'm actually generally more suspicious of Archer than TJ at this point, and I think a world with evil Archer and village TJ remains a possibility, but it also does seem like their alignments might be connected. ...it is a somewhat surreal experience to have 4 different people with votes on them and I have no strong feelings against any of those as potential wagons ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Edit: Also, it is a well known fact that bots can't lie. Fadran, who just lied about mitochondria, cannot possibly be a bot. Fadran is confirmed village. This game is actually very easy
  20. DrakeMarshall
    Personally, I would kinda prefer a scan on either Archer (helps address the roleblocking craziness, hints at both Archer & TJ's alignments) or Fae (reveals both Fae & Wizard's alignments). ...but I will freely admit that I don't get what's going on with this UPS business and if you really think that that is important I'll take your word for it.
  21. DrakeMarshall
    Yeah, that's definitely a concern. I don't know There are too many things in this game where you can't be certain to cover all of the bases, so we basically have to decide which ones we are okay with not testing and which ones we do test. This is hard Does the lack of a significant counterwagon currently change your read of the situation any? Vote Tally Biplet (6): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, Archer, DrakeMarshall, Matrim's Dice, |TJ| |TJ| (1): Ashbringer Archer (1): Shining Silhouette
  22. DrakeMarshall
    Mood Excuse you I'll have you know I've put several memes about this game in my elim doc that totally exists PM with Fifth and Kas It kind of does suggest v!Silho yeah. The big asterisk though is that again I have no idea if the elims tried to block me or not. Unfortunately. However, the elims would need to have 2 roleblocks in order to block both of us. So I think overall it does increase the chances of village!Silho. However, I think 2 elim roleblocks isn't very outlandish to consider at all, so imo it's only a slight village point in Silho's favor. I think an Ash vote would be productive, because even if Ash survives we get a semi confirmed villager out of it which helps PoE going forwards, and if Ash dies well then that's obviously a huge score. My main concern is that if we go through with an Ash train, there wouldn't really be a lot to discuss in the thread anymore, since it would be a lynch motivated mainly by mechanics and not reads. With regards to Ash, I'm also not really sure what a villager gains out of keeping that roleclaim a secret.
  23. DrakeMarshall
    Tbf, I pretty much just said that I am considering that.
  24. DrakeMarshall
    Figuring out that Archer was untargetable last night makes TJ's testimony a lot more believable, imo. Of course, Archer and TJ could be teammates. So that basically just doubles down on their alignments being connected. I wish we were focusing intel abilities more on already connected people but that isn't in my power to decide. Also, are we not gonna address the elephant in the room and ask why Archer self-smoked? Isn't that an inherently somewhat suspicious thing to do? ...Anyways, I guess I'll sign on to seeing how a Biplet train plays out. If nothing else, Aman apparently isn't going to rest until Bip is dead And it does seem to be the case that the elims took action to prevent Bip from dying. Although, it also seems to be the case that the elims blocked Aman the night before as well, which imo kinda weakens the whole "they were specifically saving Bip" thesis. I kinda still want to vote Ashbringer up to verify the Thread Master claim, too. If Ashbringer survives then we get somebody who is closer than most to being confirmed village, and if Ashbringer dies then we killed an eliminator. And I think it would be better to do that sooner than later, if we're doing it at all. Would anybody possibly consider joining an Ashbringer train with me?
  25. DrakeMarshall
    Good grief, all of this role claiming is making my head spin So many of the "confirmed" whatevers we have so far just plain aren't. That is some compelling logic. There's a bit of a dilemma here, because I have no idea if the elims tried to block me. I wouldn't have made a kill regardless. If they decided to block you and not me, then that implies evil!Bip much more than if they tried to block both of us. I'm torn about how to vote now.
×
×
  • Create New...